MLBTR Originals
This week’s original features from the MLBTR staff:
- Mark Polishuk explored what a potential contract extension might look like for Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez, who’s in the midst of his third straight excellent season.
- The Braves and Padres haven’t been relevant to the National League playoff race this year, but that doesn’t mean their seasons have been completely devoid of positives. Jason Martinez highlighted the clubs’ five biggest bright spots of 2016 (ATL, SD).
- Steve Adams analyzed the three biggest needs the Twins will have to address during the offseason, and Jeff Todd did the same with the Rays and Diamondbacks (MIN, TB, ARZ).
- Jeff broke down the free agent stock of Royals designated hitter Kendrys Morales, whom Jeff doesn’t expect to receive a qualifying offer.
- Considering Neil Walker recently underwent back surgery, Steve polled readers on whether the Mets should extend the consistently solid second baseman a qualifying offer after the season.
Duquette: Trumbo’s Power “Worth A Significant Investment”
The Mariners weren’t interested in paying Mark Trumbo $9.1MM this year, so they dealt him and left-hander C.J. Riefenhauser to the Orioles last December for backup catcher Steve Clevenger. Almost a year later, it’s fair to say the Orioles made out well in the trade. Trumbo has slashed .250/.312/.526 with a major league-leading 45 home runs in 638 plate appearances, while Clevenger added little to the Mariners before earning a suspension for controversial tweets Friday.
Trumbo’s latest homer came Saturday for the contending Orioles, who picked up a 6-1 victory over the Diamondbacks to improve to 84-71. Baltimore currently holds a half-game lead on the second wild-card spot in the American League, and it’s arguable whether the team would be in a playoff position without Trumbo’s offensive output. For their part, the Orioles are thrilled with what Trumbo has contributed, as Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun writes.
“He’s an excellent veteran player,” general manager Dan Duquette said. “I really like what he’s done for our team. He’s got some really good personal qualities that add to the ballclub.”
Meanwhile, Trumbo – who has also played for the Angels and Diamondbacks – raved about his time with the Orioles.
“It’s been the most enjoyable season I’ve had … from the group of guys in the clubhouse to the winning they’ve done on the field,” Trumbo told Schmuck.
While there’s clearly respect between the two sides, it’s uncertain whether they’ll be able to work out a new deal to prevent Trumbo from leaving Baltimore as a free agent after the season. The Orioles hope Trumbo accepts a $16.7MM qualifying offer to remain with the team in 2017, per Schmuck, who notes that’s probably unrealistic. Odds are Trumbo will land a lucrative multiyear deal, but whether he’s worth one is up in the air. While the 30-year-old ranks 18th in the majors in homers (176) and 30th in ISO (.220) since debuting in 2010, he hasn’t brought much to the table aside from above-average power.
Trumbo’s subpar career walk rate (6.7 percent) has helped produce a .302 on-base percentage, and he hasn’t offered value on the base paths or defensively, having primarily lined up in the outfield and at first base. The lion’s share of Trumbo’s action this year has come in right field, and he currently rates as the majors’ 13th-worst outfielder in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-13) among those who have logged at least 500 innings. He’s also 17th from the bottom in Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-7.7).
Offensively, this season has been a tale of two halves for Trumbo. He batted an outstanding .288/.341/.582 with 28 HRs in 375 PAs before the All-Star break, but he has hit just .187/.263/.430 with a still-impressive 17 long balls in 259 trips to the plate since. In total, the package has been worth a mediocre 1.5 fWAR, though FanGraphs indicates that Trumbo has given the Orioles $12.2MM in value this season, thereby outproducing his salary.
Going forward, it’s questionable whether the career .250/.302/.470 hitter will be able to provide bang for a team’s buck on a more expensive contract. The Orioles already have one well-compensated slugger, first baseman Chris Davis, locked up through 2022 at $23MM per annum. Davis hasn’t performed to expectations in Year 1 of his deal, which could weigh on the Orioles’ minds when considering re-signing Trumbo. At the same time, they’re clearly cognizant of Trumbo’s power.
“His performance in terms of hitting the ball out of the ballpark and driving in runs is certainly worth a significant investment,” Duquette said.
Cafardo’s Latest: Orioles, Bautista, Hellickson, Reddick
The Orioles and agent Scott Boras discussed impending free agents Matt Wieters and Pedro Alvarez in a meeting last week, but no progress was made toward extensions for either, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. As a result, Wieters and Alvarez look likely to depart Baltimore at season’s end. Wieters, the Orioles’ top catcher since 2009, accepted a qualifying offer from the club for $15.7MM a year ago, but they probably won’t tender him for $16.7MM during the upcoming offseason. The 30-year-old is in the midst of one of his worst offensive seasons, having batted .241/.300/.401 in 438 plate appearances. Alvarez, a former Pirate, took a $5.75MM deal with the O’s last March and has since slashed .248/.319/.506 with 22 homers in 367 PAs. Those are right in line with the numbers the designated hitter/corner infielder regularly produced in Pittsburgh.
More from Cafardo:
- Right fielder/DH Jose Bautista‘s underwhelming showing this year could lead him to accept a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, writes Cafardo. After terrorizing opposing pitchers from 2010-15, Bautista has hit a disappointing .233/.360/.449 with 20 homers in 484 PAs. The soon-to-be 36-year-old has also been on the disabled list multiple times. In taking a QO from the Jays, he’d have a chance to rebuild his value and make a stronger case for a high-paying deal after the 2017 season, Cafardo argues. However, that would represent a far fall for a player who reportedly wanted a long-term pact worth $30MM-plus per year last offseason.
- The Phillies and Jeremy Hellickson have mutual interest in keeping the right-hander in Philadelphia, but he might first explore the open market before making a commitment, per Cafardo. With so few capable starters primed to hit free agency in the coming months, it won’t be surprising if Hellickson does listen to other teams’ offers. Hellickson, who will turn 30 in April, has rebounded from three straight subpar seasons to post a 3.78 ERA, 7.27 K/9, 2.18 BB/9 and 14.4 percent infield pop-up rate across 185 2/3 innings this season.
- Outfielder Josh Reddick‘s less-than-stellar output with the Dodgers could cost him a significant amount of money in free agency, Cafardo contends. Reddick, whom LA acquired from Oakland before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, has batted .241/.291/.298 with one home run in 152 PAs as a Dodger. The 29-year-old was far better as a member of the Athletics, with whom he hit .257/.321/.440 and combined for 14.2 fWAR in 2,364 PAs from 2012-16. As of June, Reddick wanted in the neighborhood of $15MM per annum on a four-plus-year deal, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported. The A’s were offering well below that – in the three-year, $30MM range – which undoubtedly helped lead to the end of Reddick’s tenure with them.
NL Notes: Pirates, Melancon, Dodgers, Cardinals
Given the dearth of quality starting pitchers set to hit free agency during the offseason, it might make sense for the Pirates to use their money on bullpen upgrades if they’re unable to re-sign Ivan Nova, writes Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The Pirates and Nova have engaged in extension talks, but the 29-year-old’s late-season breakout could price him out of the team’s range. If so, Sawchik suggests a reunion with soon-to-be free agent closer Mark Melancon, whom the Bucs traded to the Nationals at this year’s non-waiver trade deadline. As a 31-year-old who lacks eye-popping strikeout numbers, Melancon is likely to garner the cheapest contract among fellow impending free agent bullpen aces Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman. Melancon made his return to Pittsburgh on Friday as a visitor and received an ovation from its fans, though he suffered his first blown save as a National in a 6-5 loss.
More from the National League:
- The blister on Rich Hill‘s left index finger continues to pose a problem, so the Dodgers will scratch him from his Sunday start against the Rockies in favor of the returning Brandon McCarthy, who has been on the disabled list with right hip stiffness since Aug. 14. Hill’s next start is set for Oct. 1, the Dodgers’ penultimate regular-season game of the year, in San Francisco. “We’ve put ourselves in the position that we have the flexibility, or luxury, to do this,” said manager Dave Roberts (via Jack Baer of MLB.com). “With the blister and how we’ve had to manage it since the trade, I think this gives him the best chance going forward to go deeper in a game.” The 88-66 Dodgers hold a seven-game lead in the NL West over the Giants and are on the verge of clinching the division. That affords them the opportunity to take it easy with Hill, who figures to serve as a key member of their playoff rotation.
- Another Dodgers starter, southpaw Scott Kazmir, might not make a start again this year, Roberts revealed Saturday. Kazmir returned Friday from a bout with thoracic spine inflammation to make his first start since Aug. 22, but he exited after one inning because of right intercostal spasms. The current campaign hasn’t gone according to plan for Kazmir, who’s in the first season of a three-year, $48MM deal he inked with Los Angeles as a free agent last winter. While Kazmir can opt out of his contract after the season, his disappointing results and injury troubles might prevent him from taking that route. In 136 1/3 innings, Kazmir has posted a 4.56 ERA, 8.85 K/9 and 3.43 BB/9.
- After Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday‘s injured right thumb swelled up last week, there was concern that the 36-year-old’s season was over. In the latest update, the Cardinals cancelled the live batting practice they had scheduled for Holliday on Sunday because of further discomfort, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The next step for Holliday is a previously scheduled appointment with a hand specialist Monday. If that goes well, Holliday could return during the upcoming week. He has been out of action since Aug. 11.
Wilmer Flores Done For Season?
If the reigning National League champion Mets are going to maintain their spot atop the wild-card race, they might have to do it without infielder Wilmer Flores. The 25-year-old hasn’t seen action since Sept. 10 because of a right wrist injury he suffered in a collision with Braves catcher A.J. Pierzynski, and Flores isn’t sure if he’ll be able to return this season.
“I am worried,” Flores told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. “But I’m very positive that I’ll feel good.”
Flores, who has a right bone bruise, has received a pair of cortisone shots over the past two weeks. One of the Mets’ team doctors recommended more rest for him Friday. With time running out this year, that could be problematic, notes DiComo. Still, Flores recently began taking aggressive swings in an indoor cage and hopes to progress to full batting practice next week.
If Flores is able to return, his presence would likely benefit a Mets offense that has scored the third-fewest runs in the NL this season. Flores has done his part, having batted .267/.319/.469 this year with 16 home runs in 335 plate appearances – including .281/.322/.496 in 149 second-half PAs. Most of the damage has come versus left-handed pitchers, against whom Flores has slashed .340/.383/.710 line in 107 trips to the plate.
The right-handed Flores’ prowess against southpaws could make him a platoon option at first base with the recently activated Lucas Duda, a lefty, or he could vie for playing time at second base with Kelly Johnson and T.J. Rivera. In addition to first and second, Flores has logged extensive time at third base this year, but the Mets are in fine shape there with midseason signing Jose Reyes, who has hit .263/.322/.451 and swatted eight homers in 245 PAs since returning from a domestic violence suspension.
Regardless of whether Flores comes back this season, he’ll be eligible for arbitration for the time during the upcoming winter. The 32 homers Flores has hit in 845 PAs since last season should set him up for a nice raise over his 2016 salary of $526,000-plus.
Brandon Phillips On Future
Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips took advantage of his no-trade clause last winter to block a deal to the Nationals. If the Reds attempt to move Phillips again during the upcoming offseason, the 35-year-old isn’t sure which approach he’ll take.
“That one thing that’s not really on my mind. I’m just trying to finish the season strong and whatever happens, happens. I can’t really control what’s going on, what the Reds want or what I want,” Phillips told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. “All I know is I want to finish strong for this team. I’m still a Red. I’m happy. I still have another year on my contract and I’m happy with that. You never know what the future really holds. Just look at the present and enjoy it while you can.”
When the Nationals pursued Phillips, he had two years and $27MM remaining on his contract, but the three-time All-Star was only willing to approve a move to Washington if it came with an extension. Phillips’ refusal to relocate to the nation’s capital has worked out well for the Nats, whose fallback plan was to sign ex-Met Daniel Murphy in free agency. In the first year of a $36MM contract that runs through 2018, Murphy has enjoyed an elite-level season, having batted an astounding .347/.391/.596 with 25 home runs in 581 plate appearances for a playoff-bound club.
With his .290/.321/.418 line in 566 PAs, Phillips hasn’t been nearly as effective as Murphy this year, but the longest-tenured Red has totaled double-digit home runs and steals (11 apiece) for the ninth time. He has also slashed .336/.356/.486 in 223 second-half trips to the plate, which could lead to offseason interest from teams looking for a capable stopgap at the keystone. Of course, that might come down to whether Phillips would be open to playing out his deal for $13MM in 2017 without an extension from an acquiring club. It’s possible Phillips would sign off on a trade to a contender, as he told Sheldon that winning a World Series is among his main goals.
“The reason we all play this game is to win a championship,” he said.
Phillips certainly won’t be part of a World Series champion next year in Cincinnati, which is amid a rebuild. In the event the Reds trade Phillips over the winter and end their 11-year relationship with him, they have a pair of replacement candidates on hand in Dilson Herrera and Jose Peraza – both of whom are 22. Herrera hasn’t yet debuted with the Reds since they acquired him from the Mets for outfielder Jay Bruce at this year’s non-waiver trade deadline, while Peraza has batted a solid .327/.349/.423 with 16 steals over 218 PAs this season.
Season Likely Over For Lorenzo Cain
SEPTEMBER 21: Cain likely will not return this year, manager Ned Yost said during an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Yost explained that Cain’s “wrist has been slow to heal,” with the team feeling there is “no sense trying to push it.”
SEPTEMBER 11,10:59am: Cain now seems to agree with the Royals that shutting him down for a week and then re-evaluating is the best course of action, tweets Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star.
8:24am: The Royals are reluctant to shut down Cain for the year, according to ESPN.com. A team spokesman said after Saturday’s game that Cain received a stem cell shot on his wrist that didn’t work, and the club will now wait a week to see if the injury heals before deciding his fate.
SATURDAY: Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain has been dealing with a sprained left hand, an injury that has made it difficult for him to swing a bat, since August. As a result, Cain is likely to shut himself down for the season, he told FOX Sports on Saturday (via Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com). Cain had been out of the Royals’ lineup since Aug. 30 until returning Friday, when he reached base four times, but he’s sitting Saturday. The 30-year-old offered a discouraging assessment of his health after Friday’s game.
“Every swing, it doesn’t feel good. I don’t know what to say,” stated Cain, who also revealed that he was playing through with a tear.
Injuries have been highly problematic this year for Cain, who missed nearly all of July with a hamstring strain. When on the field, Cain has once again been a key cog for Kansas City, though he – like his team – hasn’t been as effective as he was in either the Royals’ American League pennant-winning 2014 season or their World Series-winning 2015 campaign. In those two seasons, Cain combined to slash .304/.351/.447 with 21 home runs and 56 stolen bases across 1,106 plate appearances. His output at the plate, on the base paths and in the field led to a stellar 11.2 fWAR total – tied with Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo for fifth in the majors. Thanks largely to further defensive excellence, Cain’s at a still-solid 2.5 fWAR this year, but his .287/.339/.408 line through 434 PAs represents a step backward.
The Royals entered Saturday four games behind the AL’s second wild-card spot, and losing Cain should only further damage their slim playoff chances. They could face an offseason decision on whether to shop Cain, who’s due $11MM in 2017 – the final year of his contract – or take another run at a championship with a healthy roster full of core contributors on expiring contracts. In addition to Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas, left-hander Danny Duffy and closer Wade Davis are scheduled to hit free agency after next season.
Diamondbacks To Part Ways With De Jon Watson
SEPT. 19: In an updated version of his story, Piecoro now reports that while it was La Russa who made the announcement about Watson, the decision to let him go came from ownership and not from La Russa and Stewart.
“In talking with De Jon when his option was not picked up at the end of August,” La Russa explained, “he asked about how long it would take because if it wasn’t going to work out, he’s got contacts to make so he can land on his feet. That kind of sped the process up in his case.”
La Russa went on to offer praise for Watson but suggested that there may be some redundancies within the roles occupied by Watson, himself and Stewart, thus leading to the idea of “consolidating” some of the front office duties. “As we’ve worked through a couple of years, there’s more communication like I’m having with scouting and player development, and Stew is having the same,” said La Russa. “It’s not that there’s not a role for someone like De Jon, but that’s a possibility that there’s some duplication.”
SEPT. 18: The Diamondbacks will not pick up senior vice president of baseball operations De Jon Watson’s contract for 2017, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The decision to cut ties with Watson was made by chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and general manager Dave Stewart, a source told Piecoro. La Russa and Stewart are facing uncertain futures in Arizona, which could move on from one or both in the coming weeks.
The D-backs announced the hirings of Stewart and Watson on Sept. 25, 2014, which came a few months after they tabbed La Russa to lead their baseball department. The trio has since come under fire for a slew of questionable moves that have helped contribute to the last-place club’s 62-86 record this year. Among the front office’s panned transactions have been the big-money signings of Cuban free agents Yoan Lopez and Yasmany Tomas. Watson was instrumental in those additions, per Piecoro, as he was an important figure in their international scouting efforts.
Lopez, a right-hander whom the Diamondbacks gave a then-record $8.27MM bonus as an international free agent in 2014, has scuffled in the minors and has even contemplated giving up baseball. Inking Lopez at such a high cost has prevented the D-backs from landing any international free agent for more than $300K over the past two signing periods.
Unlike Lopez, Tomas has cracked the majors, but the six-year, $68.5MM deal Arizona signed the third baseman-turned-outfielder to before the 2015 season hasn’t exactly been a bargain. The 25-year-old Tomas has hit a below-average .269/.306/.456 with 38 home runs, including an impressive 29 this season, in 943 major league plate appearances. Thanks largely to the big-bodied Tomas’ inability to make positive contributions as a defender or baserunner, he has posted a minus-1.6 fWAR with the D-backs.
While the moves he helped guide the Diamondbacks to haven’t gone as planned, Watson also didn’t get along well with farm director Mike Bell, according to Piecoro. Bell told the team’s higher-ups in July that he couldn’t work with Watson anymore. If Bell continues with the organization past this season, Watson will no longer serve as a hindrance to him.
Latest On Twins’ Front Office Search
The Twins are moving quickly in their search for a president of baseball operations and could hire one by the end of the regular season, club president Dave St. Peter told La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune earlier this week.
“That certainly is within reach,” said Peter. “It’s certainly not a requirement, but I think I have reason to believe that it is possible.”
St. Peter wasn’t willing to discuss specific candidates with Neal, who notes that the next head of the Twins’ baseball department might land the job in the next couple weeks but not take over until late October or early November. That could be the case if the Twins select a candidate from a team with World Series hopes. The Cubs fit that description, and the Twins have shown interest in multiple Chicago executives, including senior vice president of player development Jason McLeod, assistant general manager Shiraz Rehman and pro scouting director Jared Porter. They’ve also been connected to a pair of other likely playoff-bound assistant GMs, the Mets’ John Ricco and the Indians’ Derek Falvey. Royals AGM J.J. Picollo and Rays vice president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom are also possibilities, but Kansas City is barely in the postseason race and Tampa Bay is out of it.
To this point, Minnesota hasn’t reached out to Red Sox GM Mike Hazen or Rangers assistant Thad Levine, reports Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter link). It’s unclear if either would want to join the Twins, who have had difficulty finding candidates willing to interview, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported Wednesday. “Multiple GM types” haven’t reciprocated the Twins’ interest, per Passan, but St. Peter refuted that notion.
“We certainly understand and appreciate the high level of interest in our search,” he said. “We also recognize that a search of this nature is going to bring in a heavy dose of speculation. I will just say that it also brought a heavy dose of misinformation. Unfortunately, that is a product of the media world we live in today.”
In addition to candidates reportedly turning down Minnesota’s overtures, some teams have declined the Twins’ requests to conduct interviews with key members of their front offices, writes Neal. It’s not unusual for teams to prevent their executives from potentially heading elsewhere, but it’s an inconvenience for a Twins club that has been on the hunt for a front office leader since firing longtime GM Terry Ryan in July.
R.A. Dickey Undecided On Retirement
With the end of the regular season approaching, right-hander R.A. Dickey realizes that the start he made Friday could be his last with the Blue Jays, he told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The knuckleballer threw five shutout innings against the Angels, yielding seven hits and one walk against five strikeouts in a 5-0 victory.
“When I came out I kind of ruminated over what that might be because there’s a chance that could be my last start as a Blue Jay. That’s somewhat emotional,” Dickey said. “But I have one singular goal, and I’ve made no secret about what that is: I just want to be on a championship ball club. That’s all I care about.”
At 81-67, The Blue Jays have a three-game cushion in the American League wild-card race. If they hold on and make the playoffs, Dickey is unlikely to factor into their October rotation plans. In the meantime, left-hander Francisco Liriano is expected to start the two regular-season games in which Toronto hasn’t officially scheduled a starter, writes Davidi. With that in mind, Dickey’s tenure as a Jays starter could indeed be over.
Looking beyond this season, Dickey is set to hit the free agent market as a 42-year-old during the winter. Dickey is unsure if he’ll pitch in 2017, however. While he has “never felt better” physically and believes he’s still capable of contributing, whether Dickey continues his career is “going to be a family decision.”
Dickey’s days as a front-line starter are long gone, but the 2012 National League Cy Young Award winner with the Mets has at least shown the ability to chew up innings this year. Dickey has tossed 169 1/3 frames, and his 4.46 ERA isn’t significantly worse than the AL league-average mark of 4.25. Entering 2016, he went five straight campaigns with 200-plus innings and posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the previous two years.
In the aggregate, Dickey has been much closer to average than great since Toronto surrendered a haul to the Mets to acquire him after the 2012 season. The Jays traded now-ace Noah Syndergaard and catcher Travis d’Arnaud in the package for Dickey, who has pitched to an unspectacular 4.05 ERA in 824 innings with the fifth major league team of his unique career. Dickey is cognizant of what Toronto gave up for him, of course.
“It’s been a real balancing act for me to walk the line between what people might expect of me because of past successes and what I was traded for,” he said.