Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Cy Young, Nats, Bucs, Phillies, Yanks
This week in the baseball blogosphere…
- MLB451 argues that Chris Sale and Max Scherzer should be this year’s Cy Young Award winners.
- Baseball Ranks lists the top 250 prospects in the sport.
- Pirates Breakdown tries to find the culprit(s) for the team’s late-season collapse.
- Chin Music Baseball ponders how the Nationals’ season would have turned out had they hired Bud Black instead of Dusty Baker and acquired either Ben Zobrist or Brandon Phillips in lieu of Daniel Murphy.
- Think Blue Planning Committee enlists help from Dodgers fans to honor revered play-by-play man Vin Scully, whose final season is winding down.
- BaseballDocs predicts where Blue Jays free agents-to-be Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista will sign in the offseason.
- Camden Depot points out that the Orioles’ Mark Trumbo‘s 40-plus-home run season isn’t as impressive as it seems.
- isportsweb names the Phillies’ first offseason priority.
- Inside the ‘Zona details Diamondbacks third baseman Jake Lamb‘s weird season.
- TPOP explains the ways the Pirates would benefit by re-signing right-hander Ivan Nova.
- Yanks Go Yard looks ahead to the Yankees’ offseason, while DieHardNYY wonders if the newly signed Billy Butler will be part of the team in 2017.
- Jays From The Couch delves into the success Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia has had against Toronto.
- NYRDCAST discusses the rest of the Cardinals’ season and glimpses ahead to 2017.
- Philliedelphia makes an argument for shortstop Freddy Galvis to win a Gold Glove.
- Pinstriped Prospects interviews Yankees outfield prospect Dom Thompson-Williams, a fifth-round pick in this year’s draft.
- A’s Farm puts together an organizational all-star team for the 2016 Athletics.
- The Runner Sports examines the Astros’ remaining schedule.
- Wayniac Nation focuses on the Single-A Rome Braves, champions of the South Atlantic League.
- Other League profiles Twins infield prospect Travis Blankenhorn.
- Clubhouse Corner previews the Glendale Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League.
- Rotisserie Duck pays tribute to the legendary Ted Williams.
- All Sports With Steve is not a fan of WAR (wins above replacement).
- Everything Bluebirds misses the 2015 Blue Jays.
- Halo Headquarters opines that there’s hope for the Angels’ future.
Please send submissions to ZachBBWI @gmail.com.
Latest On Ivan Nova, Pirates’ Offseason
The Pirates acquired Ivan Nova from the Yankees without much fanfare at the Aug. 1 trade deadline, but the right-hander has since turned into Pittsburgh’s latest successful reclamation project. Nova had a rough showing against the Reds on Sunday, but he entered the contest with a 2.41 ERA to pair with an even more impressive 0.52 BB/9 in 52 1/3 innings with the Pirates. As an impending free agent, Nova’s breakout might go down as a bittersweet development for the Bucs, who could lose him after the season.
“He has obviously changed the direction of his winter in the last six weeks,” manager Clint Hurdle admitted to Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Nova, 29, was back-of-the-rotation fodder in New York over the past couple seasons, but he’s likely to cash in soon as an appealing arm in a free agent market that will be largely devoid of them. It will also help Nova’s cause that the Pirates won’t be able to tender him a qualifying offer, which would force another team to give up a first-round pick to sign him. J.A. Happ, who was dominant with the Pirates after they acquired him from Seattle a year ago, also didn’t have a qualifying offer weighing him down when he hit free agency last winter. That, combined with his down-the-stretch performance in Pittsburgh, earned him a three-year, $36MM deal with the Blue Jays.
While many are quick to credit highly regarded pitching coach Ray Searage when an unheralded pickup fares well with the Pirates, Hurdle told Nesbitt that the team hasn’t had Nova make any significant changes since it landed him.
“There’s been no major overhaul,” Hurdle said. “For Nova, the downhill angle has been there, the strike-throwing efficiency has been there. It’s just been a couple things he has tightened up.”
In addition to Nova, the Pirates will have offseason decisions to make on other free agents, including reliever Neftali Feliz and a pair of position players – outfielder Matt Joyce and utilityman Sean Rodriguez – writes Nesbitt. All three signed inexpensive one-year deals with the Bucs last offseason, and Joyce and Rodriguez have been especially effective in 2016. As a result, they’re in line for raises. Joyce, who’s on a $1MM salary, has batted a stellar .248/.408/.481 with 12 home runs in 262 plate appearances. That’s a far cry from the .174/.272/.291 line and five homers he put up in 284 PAs with the Angels last year. Rodriguez, a $2.5MM player, has slashed a career-best .266/.349/.516 with 16 homers in 293 trips to the plate. Along the way, the 31-year-old has spent time at every position but pitcher and catcher.
Elsewhere on the roster, arbitration-eligible pitchers Juan Nicasio, Jared Hughes, Jeff Locke and Wade LeBlanc are potential non-tender candidates, per Nesbitt. Nicasio and Hughes have been superior to Locke and LeBlanc, both of whom seem likely to go. Locke will be due a raise over his $3.025MM salary despite having posted ugly numbers (5.49 ERA, 1.64 K/BB ratio) in 126 1/3 innings this year. LeBlanc, meanwhile, joined the Pirates on Tuesday after they picked him up in a trade with Seattle. The Mariners previously designated him for assignment in late August.
Nats Activate Joe Ross, Designate Chris Bostick For Assignment
The Nationals have reinstated right-hander Joe Ross from the 60-day disabled list and designated infielder Chris Bostick for assignment, per a team announcement.
[RELATED: Updated Nationals Depth Chart]
Ross will take the mound Sunday against the Braves in his first major league outing since July 2. Right shoulder inflammation kept the 23-year-old out for two-plus months, thereby shortening a promising season for Ross and giving the Nationals one fewer quality rotation option in the process.
Ross made 16 starts for the Nats before succumbing to injury and produced a 3.49 ERA, 7.46 K/9, 2.45 BB/9 and 44.1 percent ground-ball rate in 95 1/3 innings. Given that Ross didn’t exceed the 60-pitch mark in recent simulated games, Washington will ease him back into the mix and won’t use him for more than three innings Sunday, according to Bill Ladson of MLB.com. Barring a collapse, the Nationals – who own a nine-game lead in the National League East – will make the playoffs, but it’s unclear what Ross’ role will be in October. Manager Dusty Baker could turn to Ross as a bullpen arm next month, per Ladson.
Bostick, whom the Nationals acquired from the Rangers two years ago in a deal involving left-hander Ross Detwiler, posted differing results at two minor league levels this season. The 23-year-old fared well with Double-A Harrisburg, where he hit .290/.355/.462 in 297 plate appearances. However, he batted just .203/.261/.297 in 242 PAs with Syracuse in his first Triple-A action.
Orioles Make Three Roster Moves
The Orioles have announced a few roster moves, including placing infielder Steve Pearce on the 60-day disabled list and reinstating reliever Darren O’Day from the 15-day DL. The club has also purchased the contract of first baseman Trey Mancini from Triple-A Norfolk.
[RELATED: Updated Orioles Depth Chart]
Before sending him to the DL and ending his season, the Orioles shut down Pearce indefinitely Wednesday on account of a right flexor mass strain. Manager Buck Showalter said then that Pearce was a possibility to return later this month, but that won’t be the case. This injury could wrap up Pearce’s second tenure with the Orioles, who acquired him from the Rays prior to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline. The impending free agent hit an outstanding .309/.388/.520 and mashed 10 home runs in 232 plate appearances with Tampa Bay this year, but his numbers dipped in Baltimore as he dealt with an elbow injury.
Pearce batted .217/.329/.400 with three homers in 70 PAs as a member of the Orioles and could end up hitting the open market, where the soon-to-be 34-year-old would try to outdo the $4.75MM deal he signed with the Rays last winter. First, though, Pearce will have to go undergo forearm surgery, which will require a four- to six-month recovery, Rich Dubroff of CSN Mid-Atlantic tweets.
O’Day, meanwhile, hasn’t taken a major league mound since mid-August because of a right shoulder cuff strain. While his return is a welcome one for an Orioles team with a three-game lead on an American League wild-card spot, O’Day hasn’t been as effective this year as he was in previous seasons. Injuries have been a problem, as O’Day was previously on the DL from early June until the end of July thanks to a hamstring strain. When O’Day has pitched, he has issued 4.3 walks per nine innings, more than doubling his 2015 rate and contributing to a jump in his ERA from 1.52 to 3.95. On the positive side, O’Day has posted a posted a terrific 10.87 K/9.
Mancini, whom the Orioles selected in the eighth round of the 2013 draft, has done nothing but produce since joining the organization. After hitting .280/.349/.427 with 13 home runs in 536 Triple-A plate appearances this season, he could be in line to make his major league debut. MLBPipeline.com ranks the 24-year-old as the Orioles’ fifth-best prospect and praises his offensive abilities.
NL Notes: Rockies, Pirates, Cardinals
Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post doubts the Rockies will bring back manager Walt Weiss, whose contract expires after the season, but he argues that it would be hypocritical of loyalty-preaching owner Dick Monfort to let Weiss go. “It’s a bottom-line business,” said Weiss, with whom the Rockies have gone 279-355 since 2013. At 71-77, the Rockies are currently on track to post their best record under Weiss, who deserves a two-year deal, opines Kiszla. Colorado’s talent has clearly increased lately, as evidenced by 24-year-old right-hander Jon Gray‘s complete game, 16-strikeout performance in an 8-0 win over San Diego on Saturday. Weiss agrees, telling Kiszla, “There’s more talent in the stable than in the past. With the horses in this stable, there are more thoroughbreds.
More from Colorado and two other National League cities:
- The recent emergence of another talented Rockies player in his early 20s, Raimel Tapia, has added to an already crowded outfield, writes the Denver Post’s Nick Kosmider, who adds that the team will have some interesting offseason decisions to make because of it. Kosmider wonders if the Rockies will once again deal an outfielder to upgrade their weak bullpen during the offseason. Colorado tried that last winter, sending Corey Dickerson to the Rays for Jake McGee, but the left-hander has been part of the problem for the Rockies’ beleaguered relief corps this year. Among the Rockies’ outfielders is offseason signing Gerardo Parra, who inked a three-year, $27.5MM deal in free agency. Parra, like McGee, has been a major disappointment in his initial season with the Rockies, but the club does like that he has shown an ability to play first base. “How much time he gets over there in the future, I don’t know. But it’s nice to be able to have that,” general manager Jeff Bridich told Kosmider.
- At 74-74 and five games out of a wild-card spot, the Pirates have gone backward this year after three straight playoff seasons. There are a slew of reasons for the team’s decline, as Travis Sawchuk of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review details. One cause has been the starting rotation, where low-ceiling offseason acquisitions Jon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong have contributed little this year. The Pirates traded second baseman Neil Walker to the Mets last offseason for Niese, who pitched to a 4.91 ERA in 110 innings with Pittsburgh before it sent him back to New York for reliever Antonio Bastardo on Aug. 1. Vogelsong, a buy-low signing in free agency, has recorded a 4.87 ERA in 68 1/3 innings. In previous years, the Bucs gambled on high-upside starters like A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez, all of whom panned out and helped lead them to the playoffs.
- Like NL Central rival Pittsburgh, the Cardinals have also endured a less-than-ideal season. The 77-71 Redbirds are two games behind the Mets for the NL’s second wild-card spot and are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2010. That’s thanks in part to team-wide baserunning issues, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Cardinals are the majors’ fifth-worst baserunning team, per FanGraphs, after ranking a more respectable 15th last season. GM John Mozeliak is now formulating a plan to improve baserunning throughout the organization, having already spoken with special assistant Willie McGee, scout Kerry Robinson and farm director Gary LaRocque, according to Goold. “You get so much performance training that maybe there are times you forget about the need to strengthen the baseball skills,” Mozeliak said. “Baseball skills are hitting, defense, and baserunning. What do we need to do to make sure focusing on doesn’t detract from the others?”
Justin Morneau Open To 2017 Return
White Sox designated hitter Justin Morneau is open to continuing his career in 2017, he told reporters, including Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune, on Saturday.
“Hopefully I’ve shown enough, but you never know,” said the free agent-to-be. “If the right opportunity is not there, the choice might not be up to me. At this point, I would lean toward I still enjoy the work and still would like to (play), but it also has to make sense at this point with my family and spending time away and all that stuff.”
Potential factors working against a Morneau return include his poor 2016 output and health issues. The 2006 American League MVP and longtime Twin didn’t debut this year until mid-July after undergoing offseason elbow surgery. Moreover, the 35-year-old has been out of Chicago’s lineup since Monday with what he calls “old-man neck.” When he has played this year, Morneau has registered a career-worst .256/.295/.430 line with five home runs in 183 plate appearances. He has also recorded the lowest walk rate of his career (4.9 percent) to go with a subpar strikeout rate of 25.7 percent.
Morneau isn’t far removed from amassing far more respectable production, as he batted .310/.363/.458 in one fewer PA (182) with the Rockies last season and posted a much better 13.7 percent strikeout rate. The year before, he appeared in 135 of the Rockies’ games, totaled 550 PAs and won the National League batting title with a .319 average. Given that he was in the NL then, Morneau had to play first base in order to crack Colorado’s lineup. With the White Sox, Morneau hasn’t taken the field. If the four-time All-Star does return next year, he hopes to at least log some time with the glove.
“If you had told me when I came up that I’d miss playing defense, I wouldn’t have believed you,” Morneau said. “It’s something that is important and I like doing and I want to get back to it.”
In addition to his desire to serve as a defender again, Morneau would unsurprisingly like to play for a contender, per Kane. The White Sox, who signed him to a $1MM deal in June, don’t fit that description as of now. Whether they’ll enter next season as a hopeful playoff team or a club in a rebuild remains to be seen, but manager Robin Ventura believes Morneau is still capable of contributing.
“He can hit. He can still play. There’s no question about that,” Ventura said. “If he can physically withstand it, he’s going to be valuable to somebody.”
Unfortunately for Morneau, injury issues – including multiple concussions – have helped derail a decorated career. Morneau’s first concussion came in July 2010 and prematurely ended what may have been another MVP-winning season. His production has declined to a notable extent since.
Matt Holliday Could Be Done For Season
Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday has been on the shelf for over a month since fracturing his right thumb Aug. 11, and it appeared earlier this week he was on the verge of returning. That’s no longer the case, however, as Holliday’s thumb swelled up Saturday and forced him to cancel a scheduled simulated game, per Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. The swelling occurred a day after Holliday took batting practice, and now there’s concern that he won’t be able to make it back during the regular season to potentially help a St. Louis team that’s two games out of a National League wild-card spot.
Holliday, who had a screw inserted in his thumb Aug. 16, was in the midst of an uncharacteristically pedestrian season before suffering the injury. The 36-year-old has slugged 19 home runs after hitting just four in 2015, but his .242/.318/.450 line in 424 plate appearances is the worst of his career. Part of the problem for Holliday has been a decrease in walks. The 13th-year man posted double-digit walk rates in each season from 2008-15, including a career-best 14.1 percent mark last year (albeit in only 73 games). He’s at 8.3 percent this season, which has helped his on-base percentage tumble 76 points from a year ago.
While Holliday has gone backward in 2016, he was still a useful part of the Redbirds’ offense when healthy. In his stead, the club has mostly turned to Brandon Moss in left field. Moss has outproduced Holliday this year, but his output has dropped off significantly in the second half of the season. During a crucial September for St. Louis, Moss has hit an unsightly .085/.173/.213 in 52 trips to the plate.
If Holliday is unable to return this year, it’s conceivable the seventh-year Cardinal has taken his final at-bat with the club, notes Langosch. The Cardinals can bring back Holliday in 2017 on a $17MM club option, but that will likely be an unpalatable figure for an aging player coming off an injury. St. Louis could also decline the option and work out a less expensive deal with Holliday if it wishes to retain him.
MLBTR Originals
MLBTR’s original features from this week:
- With Dodgers southpaw Rich Hill in the midst of an incredible run that began a year ago, Tim Dierkes explained why he believes the 36-year-old free agent-to-be will secure a contract worth upward of $45MM after the season. Tim also polled readers on how much money they expect Hill to receive.
- In the final edition of this season’s “Knocking Down the Door” series, Jason Martinez presented an All-Snub team consisting of prospects who, despite strong performances, haven’t received major league promotions in 2016.
- The Angels and Brewers are well out of playoff contention, leading Jeff Todd to highlight the three biggest needs the teams will have to address during the upcoming offseason (links: LAA, MIL).
- In this week’s mailbag, Steve Adams answered offseason-themed questions centering on Padres left-hander Clayton Richard, Pirates right-hander Ivan Nova, the Mets, and the Giants.
- With the Braves facing a potential outfield logjam in 2017, Steve surveyed readers on whether the team should trade anyone from the group during the offseason.
- Jason listed four major leaguers and a minor leaguer who have been the Twins’ biggest brights spots during a last-place season.
Cafardo’s Latest: Fernandez, BoSox, Yanks, Jays, Dodgers, Cubs
The Marlins and agent Scott Boras appear unlikely to negotiate an extension for ace Jose Fernandez early in the offseason, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who reports the team could shop the right-hander as a result. Several of the majors’ high-payroll clubs, including the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs, would have interest in acquiring and extending Fernandez, per Cafardo. The 24-year-old is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2018 campaign and has thrown a career-high 174 1/3 innings this season. Along the way, Fernandez has posted dazzling numbers – 2.99 ERA, 12.44 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 – which has been the norm since he debuted in 2013.
More from Cafardo:
- Center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. is likely to remain with the Red Sox in 2017 unless they can get a No. 1-caliber starter for him during the winter, writes Cafardo. The Red Sox and White Sox reportedly discussed Bradley and top starters Chris Sale and Jose Quintana in advance of the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but Boston wasn’t willing to part with Bradley then. Dealing him in the offseason would give the Red Sox more time to find a replacement, though Bradley has been an integral part of the club in 2016 and could continue to serve as a key piece going forward. The 26-year-old has slashed .273/.354/.501 with 25 home runs in 585 plate appearances and graded well both on the base paths and in the field.
- Plenty of teams will look to hire ex-Twins general manager Terry Ryan as a special advisor in the offseason, a major league source told Cafardo. The Twins fired Ryan in July, but the 62-year-old’s overall body of work has earned him respect from his peers.
- In the event the Blue Jays move on from manager John Gibbons after the season, Cafardo lists Torey Lovullo, Eric Wedge and Bud Black as potential successors. Lovullo, Boston’s bench coach, was an assistant in Toronto from 2011-12. Wedge, who previously managed the Indians and Mariners, now works in player development with the Jays. Black managed the Padres from 2007-15 and is currently a special assistant to Angels GM Billy Eppler.
- Teams will have offseason interest in Red Sox reliever Koji Uehara, an impending free agent, a major league source informed Cafardo. One of those clubs could be the Red Sox, though Cafardo notes that Uehara would need a strong finish to return to Boston for a fifth season. The soon-to-be 42-year-old should also end up with a salary far below the $9MM he’s making now. At 3.95, Uehara has logged his highest ERA since 2009, but his 6.33 K/BB ratio is seventh among relievers who have thrown at least 40 innings this year. Uehara has amassed 41.
Brewers Shut Down Junior Guerra
With nothing to play for the in the standings and only 13 games remaining in their season, the 67-82 Brewers have shut down right-hander Junior Guerra for the year, manager Craig Counsell announced Saturday (Twitter link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).
Guerra missed most of August with an elbow injury, but he’s now healthy, Counsell said. Nevertheless, the club has elected to end the 31-year-old rookie’s season after he threw a combined 148 1/3 innings, his most with a major league organization, with Milwaukee and Triple-A Colorado Springs . He could next partake in winter ball.
“That will be discussed,” stated Counsell (Twitter link via Rosiak).
To conclude his year, Guerra spun six shutout innings and allowed five base runners (three hits, two walks) against six strikeouts in a 7-0 win over the Reds on Wednesday. In all, he recorded a sparkling 2.81 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 3.18 BB/9 and 45.3 percent ground-ball rate in 121 2/3 major league innings to serve as an unexpected bright spot this season for the Brewers.
Guerra bounced around the Braves, Mets and White Sox organizations form 2006-15, but he only amassed four major league innings – all of which came in Chicago last season. Amazingly, he didn’t pitch for any major league organizations from 2009-14, instead dividing his time among the Venezuelan Winter League, independent American Assocation and Mexican League. Guerra’s stint with the White Sox led him to the Brewers, who claimed him off waivers from Chicago last October and have since reaped the rewards. Notably, claiming Guerra was general manager David Stearns’ first transaction atop the Milwaukee franchise.
Despite his age, Guerra’s lack of service time means he’s nowhere near free agency and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2018 season. That could make him either a cheap candidate to continue in the Brewers’ rotation or a trade chip. FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reported prior to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline that the Stearns-led Brewers weren’t in any hurry to deal Guerra and would have wanted a significant haul for him.