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Astros, Rays Set Game 7 Starters

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The Astros are one win away from pulling off one of the greatest postseason comebacks in Major League Baseball history. After dropping the first three games of the American League Championship Series against the Rays, they have won three in a row to force a Game 7 on Saturday. The Astros will use right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. as their starter then, Jake Kaplan of The Athletic tweets. The Rays, hoping to stave off a collapse, will turn to righty Charlie Morton, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

McCullers, who debuted with the Astros in 2015, has been through the postseason wringer with the perennial contenders. He made his first playoff outing as a rookie and has since contributed 43 frames of 2.93 ERA pitching with 9.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in the postseason, including closing out the Yankees in the Astros’ 2017 ALCS victory in Game 7. As for this fall’s playoffs, the 27-year-old has tossed 11 innings of five-earned run ball, and he last took the mound for the Astros in their Game 2 loss in this series on Monday. McCullers totaled seven innings with four runs (only one earned) on four hits and no walks in that game, and he put up 11 strikeouts.

Morton got the better of McCullers in the pair’s previous matchup, during which he fired five scoreless frames. The 36-year-old Morton helped lead the Astros to a championship in 2017 with his excellent playoff performance, but he could now end their season with his current club. Not only has Morton largely been a tremendous regular-season pitcher since he broke out as an Astro during their title-winning campaign, but he has been as good or better in the fall, evidenced by his lifetime 3.16 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 51 1/3 playoff innings. Based on the success he has had in the postseason, Morton seems well equipped to handle a do-or-die matchup.

MLBTR Poll: DJ LeMahieu’s Next Contract

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It was only two years ago that second baseman DJ LeMahieu reached free agency for the first time. The former Cub and Rockie hit the open market as someone who was regarded as a useful contributor, but hardly a star. He still did well for himself, inking a $24MM pact with the Yankees, but now finds himself on the verge of another trip to free agency. The difference this time is that LeMahieu will now be one of the most coveted players available.

While LeMahieu did have a batting title with the Rockies on his resume when the Yankees added him, he didn’t show off a ton of power prior to moving to New York. In all, he was a .298/.350/.406 hitter with a mediocre 90 wRC+ and 49 home runs across 3,799 plate appearances. Since then, though, LeMahieu has exploded for a .336/.386/.536 mark, a 146 wRC+ and 36 HRs, making him one of the sport’s elite hitters. He’s coming off a regular season in which he picked up another batting title (.364) and paced the American League in wRC+ (177).

One of the questions now is how far the Yankees may go to retain LeMahieu. He said before their season-ending ALDS loss to the Rays that there had not been any contract talks, but it’s hard to believe the Yankees won’t put forth an earnest effort to re-sign the 32-year-old before free agency opens. They may not make a competitive enough offer, however, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote earlier this week that the Yankees are likely to “hold the line” at a maximum of three years and $20MM per annum.

During our pre-free agency debates at MLBTR, we’ve set a floor of $80MM over four years, though we have entertained even higher guarantees. No matter what, it’s easy to see LeMahieu, a big hitter with defensive versatility, reeling in a far larger payday than he did the last time he was looking for a contract. For this exercise, we’ll place the over/under at $80.5MM. How well do you think LeMahieu will do? (Poll link for app users)

Dodgers Plan To Start Walker Buehler In Game 6 Of NLCS

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The Dodgers, down 3-1 to the underdog Braves in the NLCS, are facing elimination heading into Game 5 on Friday. If the Dodgers do force a Game 6, though, they’ll use right-hander Walker Buehler as their starter, J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group was among those to report.

Los Angeles has already turned to Buehler once in its series against Atlanta, which beat him in Game 1 by a 5-1 score. That wasn’t necessarily Buehler’s fault, though, as he turned in five innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts, five walks and three hits allowed. He has generally been effective in this year’s playoffs, evidenced by a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings, and is coming off a regular season in which he registered a 3.44 ERA/4.36 FIP with 10.31 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over eight starts and 36 2/3 frames.

Of course, the Buehler news will prove to be moot if the Dodgers don’t extend the series Friday. They’re turning to fellow young gun Dustin May in Game 5, while the Braves will rely on their bullpen as they try to close out the series.

Braves To Start A.J. Minter In Game 5 Of NLCS

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With a chance to eliminate the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLCS on Friday and advance to the World Series for the first time since 1999, the Braves will turn to left-handed reliever A.J. Minter as their starter, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports. He’ll square off against the Dodgers’ Dustin May.

This figures to be a short outing for Minter, who threw 21 2/3 frames in 22 regular-season appearances and recorded more than three outs on only a couple of occasions. The 27-year-old Minter made his appearances count, though, as he logged a meager 0.83 ERA/2.82 FIP with 9.97 K/9, 3.74 BB/9 and a 49.0 percent groundball rate. He’s a key member of a bullpen that finished 2020 with the majors’ fourth-best ERA (3.50), and that unit’s likely to be busy Friday.

Despite questions in a rotation that’s missing Mike Soroka and Cole Hamels because of injuries, the Braves have stormed to a 3-1 lead against the favored Dodgers. Most of the games in the series haven’t been close to this point, including a Thursday matchup in which the Braves and starter Bryse Wilson posted a dominant 10-2 victory.

Framber Valdez, Blake Snell To Start Game 6 Of ALCS

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Thanks to the heroics of shortstop Carlos Correa, who hit a walk-off home run Thursday, the Astros forced a Game 6 of the American League Championship Series against the Rays. Both teams’ starters are set for that affair on Friday. The Astros will use left-hander Framber Valdez, per manager Dusty Baker (via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com), while the Rays will turn to fellow southpaw Blake Snell, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.

This will be the third straight backs-against-the-wall game for the Astros, who fell behind 3-0 in the series but have refused to go away quietly. They’ve won two consecutive games by a 4-3 score and will now rely on the 26-year-old Valdez to keep their season going. He was an indispensable part of their Justin Verlander-less rotation during the regular season, when he tossed 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA/2.85 FIP ball with 9.68 K/9, 2.04 BB/9 and a 60 percent groundball rate. Valdez has added another 18 frames in the postseason and allowed just four earned runs. The Rays did, however, get the better of him in Game 1 of the ALCS with a 2-1 victory.

Snell was at the helm for the Rays in the series’ first game, and the former AL Cy Young winner gave up one run in five innings. He has generally been excellent in these playoffs, having surrendered five ER in 15 2/3 frames. Before that, Snell had another effective regular season with 50 innings of 3.24 ERA/4.35 FIP pitching with 11.34 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a 49.2 percent GB rate. The 27-year-old now has a chance to pitch Tampa Bay into the World Series for the first time since 2008.

Jonathan Villar Switches Representation

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Blue Jays infielder Jonathan Villar has changed agencies and is now a client of Wasserman, Robert Murray reports. He’d previously been with MDR Sports Management. MLBTR has made note of the switch in our Agency Database.

The change in representation comes at a key time for Villar, who’s on the cusp of free agency. He’s on track to join Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, Marcus Semien, Freddy Galvis and Korea’s Ha-Seong Kim as some of the most recognizable shortstop-capable players on the open market.

Now 29 years old, Villar has posted quality seasons in the past (including a 4.0-fWAR showing with the Orioles in 2019), but he’s due to reach the open market off a poor campaign. Between Miami and Toronto, the latter of which acquired him before the Aug. 31 trade deadline, the switch-hitting Villar recorded a paltry .232/.301/.292 line with two home runs in 207 plate appearances in 2020. But with 16 stolen bases, it was the fifth straight season in which Villar swiped double-digit bags, and he did continue to flash defensive versatility by accruing well over 100 innings at both middle infield spots.

Mallex Smith, Bryan Shaw, Jimmy Yacabonis Elect Free Agency

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Mariners outfielder Mallex Smith and right-handers Bryan Shaw and Jimmy Yacabonis have elected free agency, Greg Johns of MLB.com tweets. The Mariners outrighted all three players in September.

Seattle had high hopes for Smith when it acquired him from Tampa Bay before 2019 in a deal that also involved catcher Mike Zunino, among others. The Mariners seemed right to be bullish on Smith, who was coming off a 3.5-fWAR, 40-steal season at the time. Smith has continued as a stolen base threat since then (he swiped 40 bags in 2019), but the 27-year-old has otherwise struggled. He finished his M’s tenure with 613 plate appearances of .220/.290/.323 hitting and six home runs.

It was also an awful 2020 for Shaw, continuing a downward trend for the once-effective Cleveland reliever. After a woeful two-year stint in Colorado, Shaw joined the Mariners on a big league contract in July, but the deal didn’t work out for either side. The 32-year-old wound up tossing six frames, yielding 12 earned runs on 13 hits and issuing six walks in Seattle.

Yacabonis joined the Mariners in a minor trade with the Padres in August, but he also didn’t establish himself in the M’s bullpen. The 28-year-old gave up one earned runs on two hits and three walks in 2 1/3 innings.

Latest On Luis Severino, Yankees’ Rotation

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The Yankees have gone through most of the past two seasons without one of their best players, right-hander Luis Severino. After emerging as an ace-caliber starter from 2017-18, Severino logged just 12 innings in 2019 because of shoulder surgery. The hope was that Severino would return to health this past year, but the Tommy John procedure he underwent in February wiped out the chances of that. He missed the entire season as a result.

As someone who’s still just 26 years old, the Yankees are no doubt hopeful that the hard-throwing Severino will return to form next season. However, they’ll have to make do without Severino when the campaign opens, as general manager Brian Cashman told James Wagner of the New York Times and other reporters on Wednesday that the hurler won’t return until June or July.

Another Severino-less rotation, even if only for a couple of months, would leave the Yankees with Gerrit Cole, Jordan Montgomery, Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt among the in-house possibilities for their staff (Cole’s obviously a lock). They’re currently slated to lose Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and J.A. Happ to free agency, while Domingo German’s future is uncertain after he missed all of 2020 because of a domestic violence suspension. Though German has been reinstated by MLB, the Yankees have not had “access” to him yet because of COVID protocols, per the Athletic’s Lindsey Adler (via Twitter).

Cashman spoke about the rotation Wednesday, saying that it “needs to get improved upon,” per Marc Carig of The Athletic. Notably, aside from the aforementioned pending free agents from New York, the market will include the likes of top option Trevor Bauer, Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Jose Quintana, and Jake Odorizzi. The Rangers’ Lance Lynn, a former Yankee, figures to be near the forefront of the trade market. Don’t be surprised to see the Yankees explore the Lynn or other options in the trade market to build out their rotation depth. Given the success of the Rays this season, the Yankees figure to enter 2021 with an appropriate amount of urgency – and that means having depth ready for action.

Tigers Have Interviewed Marcus Thames For Managerial Job

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The Tigers interviewed Yankees hitting coach Marcus Thames for their vacant managerial position last week, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets (and as Tony Paul of the Detroit News previously reported). Thames joins Dodgers first base coach George Lombard as known candidates to succeed Ron Gardenhire, who retired as the Tigers’ skipper in the second half of September.

Like Lombard, Thames was a member of the Tigers during his playing career. In fact, Thames spent the majority of his career in Detroit, where he suited up from 2004-09. His time as a major leaguer, which he also spent with the Yankees, Rangers and Dodgers, ended in 2011.

Dating back to 2014, Thames has worked for the Yankees in both the minors and the bigs. He joined their major league coaching staff as the hitting coach prior to 2018, and though it’s difficult to quantify the impact he has made, the Yankees’ offense has been rather successful on Thames’ watch. In three years under his tutelage, the club ranks first in the league in runs and wRC+.

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