Astros Option Corbin Martin
5:12pm: The Astros announced that they’ve optioned Martin to Triple-A. It’s not clear who’ll step into his spot in the rotation, as the corresponding move was the recall of lefty reliever Reymin Guduan. As The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan points out (via Twitter), they’ll need a fifth starter on Saturday but can get through the next turn in the rotation with only four starters due to an off day next week.
11:05am: Though the Astros aren’t committing to a rotation change just yet, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle writes that one may not be far off. Corbin Martin has not made it past the fourth inning since his debut outing.
Martin’s first showing was a good one. But in his four intervening starts, he has allowed 10 earned runs on 20 hits with a 10:11 K/BB ratio in 14 innings.
The ‘Stros are showing a fair bit of patience, but obviously won’t be satisfied with these sorts of results. Martin has struggled to get ahead of hitters, keep his pitch count down, and stay in the zone. And though the organization can afford some added audition time with a nine-game division lead, it also will be wary of tempting fate while several of its best players are on the injured list.
Skipper A.J. Hinch affirmed that the organization believes in Martin as a long-term option, citing his stuff and “mentality” as reasons for a “really good” long-term outlook. But Hinch says that for Martin “to stay in the rotation and be effective, not just for the foreseeable future but his entire career, it’s important for him to mix in some good outings and make sure he can get us deep in games.” Whether Martin will get one more chance to turn the corner remains to be seen.
The ‘Stros certainly have alternatives. Collin McHugh would be an obvious choice, though he’s on the IL. Josh James, Framber Valdez, and Brady Rodgers could all slide over from the bullpen. It’d certainly be easy enough for the team to piggyback a few of those pitchers to get the length needed for a game or two, perhaps allowing one or more pitchers to stretch out fully on the fly.
Looking down on the farm, there are two 40-man starters — Cionel Perez and Rogelio Armenteros — camped out at Triple-A. Neither has been particularly impressive to this point of the season, at least in terms of earned runs, though both have swing and miss capabilities. It might have been hoped that top prospect Forrest Whitley would be ready for a taste of the big leagues, but he has been hammered early on at Round Rock and doesn’t seem likely to be tapped in the near future.
Dallas Keuchel Rumors: 6/4/19
4:33pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a lengthy look at the situation, examining the possible reasons that Keuchel has yet to strike up a deal. As Sherman points out, even the prorated version of the $17.9MM qualifying offer value checks in close to $11.5MM, and few teams have that type of money budgeted this time of year. The Braves, for instance, are “uncomfortable” with that price point, per Sherman, while the Yankees are unlikely to exceed it, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.
Previous struggles from players who waited into the season to sign (e.g. Kendrys Morales, Greg Holland) have created concerns over what to expect from Keuchel. As a result, some clubs would prefer a lower base salary with per-start incentives — similar to the one Gio Gonzalez initially signed with the Yankees in Spring Training — but Keuchel and Boras would obviously prefer a full guarantee. Sherman adds that Keuchel’s camp has floated some multi-year scenarios with an opt-out after the 2019 season, but a straight one-year pact still seems likely.
8:55am: With draft compensation no longer a factor, a signing could come at any time for free agent starter Dallas Keuchel. As always, we’ll be on top of the latest developments in the market here at MLBTR.
We heard yesterday that the Yankees and Braves were among the likeliest possible landing spots for Keuchel, with a few other teams also among those with ongoing interest. Now, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) takes things a bit further by labeling the New York and Atlanta organizations the favorites for the veteran southpaw.
Another source labels the Yankees the true favorites, Feinsand tweets. Braves beat reporters, meanwhile, have poured cold water on the idea of a move for Keuchel. (Links to Twitter.) It’s impossible to know when and how a signing will come together, but Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that there’s a sense resolution could come “relatively soon.”
As things stand, says Feinsand, the Yankees and Braves “are believed to be in the same area with their offers.” No doubt Keuchel and agent Scott Boras are hopeful that one of these or another team will create some separation in the financial department.
There has long been some uncertainty regarding Keuchel’s contractual demands and outlook. There’s little question he has backed down from any opening asking price, but there have been varying indications as to whether he’d accept (or even seek) a contract that wraps up at season’s end. If he’s only looking for a half-year arrangement, Keuchel will surely want it to be for a hefty rate of pay. But he’d assuredly also consider other factors with an eye already on a return to the open market.
Even if the Yanks and Braves are indeed “favorites” at the moment, it’s worth remembering that such a status means relatively little until the ink hits the paper. Other organizations are surely also engaged with Boras — the Cardinals, Rays, Brewers, and Twins have all been cited of late — and all are no doubt also canvassing the early trade market possibilities.
The Yasmani Grandal Contract Looks Even Better In Retrospect
Just because you get a nice price doesn’t mean you oughta buy something. And it doesn’t mean that the thing you purchase will deliver utility commensurate with its cost.
That’s true for MLB teams considering free agents as much as online shoppers contemplating another splurge … except that ballclubs face a notable limitation in the form of roster rules. Teams can’t necessarily have that super-functional fanny pack and a designer handbag, at least without giving up some other much-needed accessory.
In baseball, especially, the gold standard isn’t cost-efficiency standing alone. It’s getting (at least) good value for a premium asset that fulfills a need.
Every so often, teams more or less luck into supreme value. The Tigers deserve credit for re-discovering J.D. Martinez, to be sure, but that’s also just an extremely good outcome on the sort of dice rolls that happen every winter on marginal roster pieces.
Even more rare is the sort of opportunity that arose last winter for the Brewers: a chance to pick up an already-acknowledged premium player at a position of need for an extremely appealing price in free agency. Entering the winter, we predicted Yasmani Grandal would command $64MM over four years — a set of numbers that would’ve been higher had it not been for his stunning issues in the postseason. Instead, the Brewers picked up Grandal’s age-30 season for a measly $18.25MM. (Some of that is deferred as the buyout on a mutual option, but there’s no realistic shot of that being exercised.)
That deal seemed like an exceptional value proposition for the Milwaukee club at the moment it was struck. Before the signing, the club was slated to go with Manny Pina and Erik Kratz. Sure, they only got one year, but that was an opportunity to add a nice chunk of his prime without taking on any long-term risk. There really isn’t even a premium on the cost versus the scenario we proposed; on any lengthy free-agent deal, a team reasonably anticipates much of the on-field to come on the front end.
It’s somewhat anticlimactic to say that … well, the deal is working out exactly as it was drawn up. He’s doing just what he has done before, and then some. Grandal is drawing a lot of walks while striking out at a palatable level and hitting for good power. With his hard-hit rate up early, Grandal is also maintaining a higher BABIP (.310) and batting average (.277) than usual.
The result on offense is a 133 wRC+. Grandal is on pace to set a personal-high in the long ball department, in no small part because he’s being run out in the lineup on a near-everyday basis. Since they aren’t obligated to him for the future, the Brewers don’t need to worry too much about long-term wear and tear. Of course, Grandal is also a strong defender. He continues to grade as a premium pitch framer. And he’s even running a little, having matched his single-season career-high with three stolen bases. Fangraphs’ BsR measure has long loathed Grandal’s work on the bases, but now views him as a neutral overall runner.
Grandal is well on his way to matching or exceeding the roughly 5 WAR annual level of play he sustained with the Dodgers. Getting that sort of player for a one-year deal at the qualifying offer price is kind of hard to believe. What even happened?
It certainly took somewhat unique circumstances for this deal to come together. Grandal turned down a substantial, multi-year offer that wasn’t to his liking. He also decided not to wait out a bigger contract at all costs, though waiting until early/mid-January to sign wasn’t exactly rushing into a deal. Even on a one-year scenario, this deal seemed like it came in cheap; the Braves spent $23MM in hopes of a bounceback year from an older player with a more significant injury history (but also more upside) in Josh Donaldson.
It’s fair to note that things are working out thus far for Grandal as well. He obviously preferred this approach. He ought to have every chance of securing a larger and longer contract if he so desires this winter.
Still, this contract was a fantasy scenario for the Brewers when the offseason started. And so far, the reality has exceeded the dream.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Cubs To Activate Pedro Strop
The Cubs will welcome back reliever Pedro Strop from the injured list, manager Joe Maddon tells Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (Twitter link). Fellow righty Dillon Maples was optioned down to make room.
Strop’s return from a hamstring injury is an important step for a club that has had its share of relief issues of late. The Chicago pen has blown more saves (seven) in the past month than all but one other team (the Mets, with nine). Adding Strop back to the late-inning mix will not only give Maddon another key arm to work with in high-leverage situations but will help deepen the rest of the unit.
Soon to turn 34, Strop has long been a reliable piece for the Cubs. Since landing in Chicago, he carries a 2.71 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 342 frames of action. He has allowed just 5.7 hits and 0.6 home runs per nine in that span.
It’s tough to say much after a twelve-appearance sample, but Strop was perhaps a tick off to begin the season. His velocity has continued to trend down, albeit at a gentle pace, and he had permitted six earned runs in his 10 2/3 innings. Most of the damage came in two outings to open the year.
The Cubs will be glad to throw Strop back in the mix to see whether he can get back to his usual productivity. Whether or not he’ll retake the closer’s job from Steve Cishek remains to be seen. The club would prefer to have both of those pitchers working in a setup capacity in front of Brandon Morrow, but it’s anyone’s guess whether and when he’ll return.
Rangers GM Jon Daniels On Spending Outlook
It’s really not yet time for the Rangers to look to the coming offseason; after a surprisingly solid start to the season, they’re still in position to compete for a wild card spot. But the coming free agent market was a topic of conversation in a recent interview with Rangers GM Jon Daniels on 105.3 The Fan’s Ben and Skin show (audio and transcript via the Dallas Morning News).
Even as he preps for a potentially interesting summer trade market, Daniels says that he anticipates entering next winter with “a lot more [payroll] flexibility the next two years than we’ve had the last couple, the last, probably three or four.” That said, the long-time top baseball ops exec said that the club’s spending is “going to be player-specific” in that the club will be “ready to make [an] investment” in “the right guy” but won’t “spend just to say we spent.”
The Rangers have made moves of that sort already in recent years, giving out three-year deals to Mike Minor and Lance Lynn. But Daniels obviously sees some stepped-up possibilities for the near future as the organization has continued to steadily draw down its payroll commitments.
Reading between the lines and adding a dollop of speculation, it seems that the Texas club could be more aggressive in exploring higher-grade free agents. Perhaps the near-term spending availability will also expand the team’s trade possibilities this summer. There’s some room to spend with only $85MM or so on the books for 2020 (including the remaining money owed to Prince Fielder after the portions picked up by the Tigers and the contract insurer). And as Daniels acknowledges, “the new ballpark will play into it.” The club will surely want to maximize that revenue stream with a competitive product.
That said, it’s far too soon to address the potential needs and opportunities in detail. The needs on the fringes of the roster are all but impossible to know at this point, and indeed there are still some notable variables even in the nascent Texas roster core.
Daniels notes that future investment is premised upon the idea that the organization has “a good foundation” in place at present. “There’s some really good quality players that are going to be here for several years and we’ll have an opportunity to build on that,” Daniels says.
The Rangers GM obviously believes the club has the makings of a productive core unit, but the rotation still comes with rather gaping near- and long-term questions. And some key position players are still sorting through some issues.
Outfielder Nomar Mazara has yet to turn in a breakout, though he’s at least still producing at a roughly league-average at the plate. Second baseman Rougned Odor has been a mess at the plate; he’s still just 25 years of age, but his rollercoaster MLB track record is of increasing worry.
Daniels says there’s “still patience” with Odor, citing the recent comments of skipper Chris Woodward and noting that he’s still a hard-working and highly talented ballplayer. But Daniels also acknowledged that “there is a level of concern,” particularly given that “this is not the first time it has happened.” Indeed, Odor has had notable peaks and valleys throughout his career. He managed to post league-average offensive work last year, but that included a brutal start and finish. It also came on the heels of a rough 2017 showing.
Odor is off to a .166/.232/.331 slash to open the present campaign. He’s sustaining a walk-rate boost he showed last year, but suddenly has a whopping new swing-and-miss issue. Odor is striking out at a 33.7% clip on a 13.6% swinging-strike rate, both of which represent career-worst levels.
Whether and how Odor’s issues will be sorted remains to be seen, but Daniels notes it’d be preferable not “to make a habit of kind of getting into these deep holes and having to put a program together to get out of it.” The club must have “a sense of urgency” in getting Odor on track, Daniels says. Even if that occurs, one wonders whether the team can have confidence that the second bagger won’t fall into another funk.
Poll: Did The Orioles Land A Franchise Cornerstone?
You always hate to put too many expectations on a young player who was just taken in a draft. That’s all the more true in baseball, when there’s almost always a fairly lengthy period of development and preparation in the minor leagues before said player will even be ready to test himself at the game’s highest level.
But every situation is different. And last night’s draft seemed to represent a rare match of a desperate franchise with an exceptionally well-suited top selection when the Orioles chose Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman first overall.
By definition, teams selecting first overall are in a tough spot when it comes to their MLB roster. It’s awfully tough to turn a club around immediately after pacing the league in losses in the prior season. But the Orioles were in especially dire straits after a calamitous attempt at one more season of contention before launching a rebuild.
The on-field product at Camden Yards was really poor last year and remains so at present. While the farm system isn’t barren, it was and is generally regarded as a bottom-third outfit. And the club’s new front office leadership is only just starting the arduous task of building out an international operation.
The first overall draft pick is a nice consolation prize for a wretched season; it’s one the O’s may well pick up for multiple years running. But it doesn’t always convey as much draft power as you might wish. The Diamondbacks, not the Orioles, had the highest overall spending capacity this year since they were able to secure some lofty comp selections.
More importantly, you’re always limited by the players available. Last year, the Tigers were glad to find Casey Mize at 1-1, though pitching prospects are always riskier. The Astros were able to get creative back in 2012, selecting Carlos Correa instead of consensus top prospect Byron Buxton and reallocating some bonus space for later draft targets. But that was only possible because there were two exceptional talents. In some years, there aren’t any slam dunks. Browse back through the recent history of top overall picks and you’ll find quite a few that did not stand out as obvious selections at the time (and haven’t necessarily worked out as hoped).
With the first overall pick, you want a combination of upside and floor. You want it all in terms of talent and makeup. Preferably the player is not just toolsy but advanced enough to be a relatively near-term MLB option. And when you’re in as deep a hole as the Orioles, especially, you are hoping that this special player is capable of taking on the immense pressure that comes with such a selection.
On the surface, Rutschman is all of that and more. He’s a switch-hitting catcher with outstanding abilities on both sides of the ball and a history of performance at the highest levels of the collegiate ranks.
True, there were some other blue chippers in this class. In particular, second overall selection Bobby Witt Jr. had a case to get the top nod. He’s got all the tools and comes with big league bloodlines. If you’re wary of putting too much stock in a guy who’ll take a lot of wear and tear behind the dish, maybe Witt was a better selection. As a high schooler, he wouldn’t be expected to push immediately towards the majors.
Expectations are certainly lofty for Rutschman. He already led OSU to a title. As an advanced college player, he’ll be expected to perform well out of the gates and move swiftly up to the bigs … where team-level expectations will immediately rise.
Rutschman spoke last night in a way that should resonate with Orioles fans: “I’m going to control what I can control and play the best that I can play and work as hard as I can. I think everything else is going to take care of itself.” It’s a humble statement on the surface, but one that’s also laden with expectations when you consider the context. With Rutschman leading the way, will everything else fall into place for the Orioles?
How do you view the Orioles' selection of Adley Rutschman?
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Nice pick, nice player ... but the expectations are already unrealistic 65% (5,548)
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Rutschman will be a superstar and lead an Orioles renaissance 31% (2,659)
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The O's picked the wrong guy 4% (369)
Total votes: 8,576
Pirates Searching For Mid-Season Acquisitions
The Pirates aren’t exactly playing inspired ball at 28-30, but they remain in the hunt in a densely packed NL Central. GM Neal Huntingon indicated that he’s on the look for acquisitions in an interview with 93.7 FM The Fan (as covered by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).
The club has had a number of tough injury breaks, though that’s true of plenty of other teams as well. But missing some notable roster pieces has only left Huntington feeling more determined. He says the “continued fight in this club is something to appreciate and love.”
While the Bucs are a notoriously light-spending outfit, Huntington isn’t just counting on getting a boost from already-paid-for, rehabbing players such as Corey Dickerson, Jung Ho Kang, Jameson Taillon, and Keone Kela. The long-time front office leader isn’t necessarily saying the pocketbook or farm system will be opened wide to make additions, but does say he’s “got to find a way to get some reinforcements here.”
Unsurprisingly, pitching is the focus. While the Pirates have a few position players nearing returns, the group of hurlers has longer to wait for its own injured assets to make it back to the roster. Collectively, the Bucs have an ugly 6.17 ERA over the past thirty days.
It’d obviously be nice to score a high-end starter, though that isn’t necessarily in the cards. The focus now is on smaller game. Huntington highlights the middle relief corps, saying he has not “done a good job in getting the right guys at the right times from the right spots.” Picking up reasonably interesting, potential bounceback relievers in the middle of the season is something the Pirates have pulled off in the past, so we can safely anticipate some efforts in that regard.
That’s not to say that more significant moves won’t ultimately be pursued. It’s just hard to foresee it happening in the near-term with the deadline still two months off and the Pirates’ position still unclear. Huntington did acknowledge there could be a “potential scenario” where the team moves a position player for pitching, though he did so in the vaguest possible terms.
2019 MLB Draft Results — First Round
The 2019 MLB Draft is underway, and we’ll track the first-round picks as they come in. Rather than breaking things up as we have in the past, we’ll just track everything before the 2nd round in this post. This year, there are 32 true first-round picks, followed by a pair of compensation picks and seven competitive balance selections.
Here are the picks:
- Baltimore Orioles: Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State University
- Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage HS (TX)
- White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, 1B, University of California
- Marlins: JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt University
- Tigers: Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (FL)
- Padres: C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS (GA)
- Reds: Nick Lodolo, LHP, Texas Christian University
- Rangers: Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech University
- Braves: Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor University
- Giants: Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State University
- Blue Jays: Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia University
- Mets: Brett Baty, 3B, Lake Travis HS (TX)
- Twins: Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Eastlake HS (CA)
- Phillies: Bryson Stott, SS, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
- Angels: Will Wilson, SS, North Carolina State University
- Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (WA)
- Nationals: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC (TX)
- Pirates: Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS (IL)
- Cardinals: Zack Thompson, LHP, University of Kentucky
- Mariners: George Kirby, RHP, Elon University
- Braves: Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M University
- Rays: Greg Jones, SS, University of North Carolina-Wilmington
- Rockies: Michael Toglia, 1B, University of California-Los Angeles
- Indians: Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy (HS)
- Dodgers: Kody Hoese, 3B, Tulane University
- Diamondbacks: Blake Walston, LHP, New Hanover HS (NC)
- Cubs: Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State
- Brewers: Ethan Small, LHP, Mississippi State
- Athletics: Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson
- Yankees: Anthony Volpe, SS, Delbarton School (NJ)
- Dodgers: Michael Busch, 1B, University of North Carolina
- Astros: Korey Lee, C, Cal
- Diamondbacks: Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy (FL; compensatory pick)
- Diamondbacks: Drey Jameson, RHP, Ball State (compensatory pick)
- Marlins: Kameron Misner, OF, Missouri (Competitive Balance Round A)
- Rays: JJ Goss, RHP, Cypress Ranch HS (TX; Competitive Balance Round A)
- Pirates: Sammy Siani, OF, William Penn Charter School (PA; Competitive Balance Round A)
- Yankees: TJ Sikkema, LHP, Missouri (Competitive Balance Round A)
- Twins: Matt Wallner, OF, Southern Mississippi (Competitive Balance Round A)
- Rays: Seth Johnson, RHP, Campbell University (Competitive Balance Round A)
- Rangers: Davis Wendzel, 3B, Baylor (Competitive Balance Round A)
L.A. City Attorney Defers Prosecution Of Julio Urias
Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias will not face criminal charges arising out of his recent arrest, Richard Winton and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times report. The decision to “defer prosecution” was announced by the Los Angeles city attorney’s office.
That determination is not absolute. As stated in an official press release, Urias could be prosecuted if he fails to meet three conditions: “(1) that Mr. Urias participate in a City Attorney hearing; (2) that he commit no acts of violence against anyone; and 3) that he successfully participate in and complete a 52 week domestic violence counseling program in person, and in a group setting.” That counseling will take place in two-hour sessions once a week and will occur during the current baseball season.
Notably, as part of the counseling, Urias will be required (among other things) to “accept responsibility for the abusive behavior perpetrated against the victim.” The city attorney’s office stated that the decision not to prosecute was based upon the lack of injury, the fact that the alleged victim never characterized herself in that manner, and Urias’s lack of a prior criminal history. The L.A. Times report also indicates that there were variances between witness accounts of a shoving and the statements of the alleged victim, who said that she fell.
From a baseball perspective, the matter is still not resolved. Urias was previously reinstated from the inactive list, but the commissioner’s office made clear that its investigation has yet to be concluded. The city attorney’s statements seem to suggest there may be evidence that Urias violated the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy. That policy provides the commissioner with broad authority to issue appropriate discipline regardless of whether a crime was charged or prosecuted by relevant legal authorities. Findings under the league policy would also be subject to different standards from those of a criminal case.
Orioles Select Adley Rutschman First Overall
The Orioles have a new front office and new dugout leadership. And now, the club has a new top prospect after officially selecting star Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman with the first overall pick of the 2019 Rule 4 amateur draft.
Though the Baltimore organization kept things quiet in the build-up to the draft, it would have rated as a major surprise had the club gone in a different direction. Rutschman checks all the boxes you want to see in a 1-1 draft selection.
Rutschman is widely considered the best overall prospect available this year. He’s a highly accomplished collegiate catcher who helped his team to a national championship last year. (Indeed, he was named the most outstanding player of the College World Series.)
Scouting reports on Rutschman, an Oregon native, read like a creat-a-player dream list from a video game. He’s a switch hitter who has walked more often than striking out in college even while delivering outstanding power. Scouts also grade him as a top-tier defensive performer behind the dish.
It’s a momentous decision for an Orioles club that has fallen on hard times after a questionable call to attempt to contend in 2018. The team’s new front office will look to assemble as much talent as possible and ramp up toward a return to glory, with Rutschman’s timeline likely to be a key factor.
The first overall pick comes with a $8.42MM bonus allocation. The O’s have the second-highest overall pool allocation. While the Diamondbacks won’t choose until the 16th overall pick, they added a pair of compensation picks that significantly boosted their overall availability.