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Tigers Sign Josh Harrison

By Jeff Todd | February 23, 2019 at 12:10pm CDT

Feb. 23, 12:10pm: The Tigers have announced the deal via a press release. Harrison is officially a member of the Detroit Tigers.

8:33pm: Harrison will be guaranteed $2MM and can earn an additional $1MM worth of incentives, tweets Jon Heyman of the MLB Network.

Feb. 20, 2:40pm: The Tigers have struck a one-year deal with infielder Josh Harrison, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Harrison will step in as the regular at second base for Detroit, per the report, though he’ll need to pass a physical for the deal to be finalized.

Josh Harrison | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Harrison, 31, is a versatile defender and quality baserunner whose bat has seen its ups and downs in recent years. Defensive metrics have favorably reviewed his work at both second base and third base, and he also has ample experience in the outfield corners. He hit the open market when the Pirates declined a $10.5MM option at the end of the 2018 season in which he managed just a .250/.293/.363 batting line in 374 plate appearances.

While he has had one big season at the plate, back in 2014, Harrison hasn’t come close to replicating it. Since, he has alternated between league-average and lesser seasons, with a cumulative .274/.319/.396 slash line in the four subsequent seasons. That sort of slightly below-average offensive output seems a reasonable expectation moving forward. Statcast hasn’t seen cause to expect better results in Harrison’s batted-ball profile; last year, for instance, he was graded at a meager .275 xwOBA that lagged his .285 wOBA.

Harrison will follow former Pittsburgh teammate and double-play partner Jordy Mercer to Detroit. They’ll bring plenty of experience and familiarity with one another to the Tigers’ middle infield mix. That doesn’t leave a ton of room for young players to emerge, but there really aren’t any who seem ready to force their way up at those positions, as the bulk of the high-end talent acquired in the Detroit rebuild to this point has been of the pitching variety.

The short-term nature of the contract makes it likely that Harrison will emerge as a trade chip alongside Mercer, Nicholas Castellanos and other appealing short-term Tigers assets this summer as Detroit continues stockpiling youthful pieces with an eye toward a return to contention in the American League Central.

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Detroit Tigers Newsstand Transactions Josh Harrison

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Nutting, Coonelly On Pirates’ Payroll, Outlook

By Jeff Todd | February 22, 2019 at 10:33pm CDT

Pirates owner Bob Nutting had some interesting comments on payroll and other matters in a recent chat with reporters, including Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Club president Frank Coonelly also opined on those topics, as covered by Nubyjas Wilborn of the Post-Gazette. Those pieces contain a wealth of worthwhile information and observations, but we’ll touch upon a few highlights here:

  • As ever, the low-budget Bucs drew scrutiny for their finances. Despite nearly reaching $100MM in Opening Day payrolls in recent seasons, the club is presently hovering in the range of $70MM for the 2019 season. That downward movement in spending led Nutting to issue the money quote of the day: “We need to focus on the things we believe are controllable.” While that’s a dubious claim on some levels, Nutting explained that he believes “payroll scale and range, broadly, is not controllable.” As Brink notes, though, it’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg issue, as the team’s ability to generate local income is dependent in some part upon its on-field investment.
  • Nutting unsurprisingly demurred on details, particularly relating to the question whether attendance dips were responsible for pulling down the payroll. He focused instead on the concept that the club is “always going to have limitations” and simply needs to “maximize the impact of every dollar” that is allocated to payroll. There was a hint that GM Neal Huntington could have some cash stashed in his back pocket. Nutting said that the long-time baseball ops leader “always has to have some room to work,” seemingly indicating that was the case at present.
  • Coonelly put something of a different shine on things, saying that fulfilling a need “to get younger, more dynamic and more athletic” left the organization with a large number of pre-arbitration players, the presence of whom “explains our payroll.” As to concerns about how some of the roster spots were being filled (in particular, shortstop), Coonelly noted that “every established player in the big leagues was a player who had to establish themselves at some point.” That’s true enough in the abstract, though surely some would quibble on the details as pertains to some players. If youth is to account for the notably meager payroll, it won’t provide any excuses on the field. Coonelly said without equivocation: “My expectations are that the Pirates will win the NL Central.”
  • Paying market rates to established big leaguers obviously is not part of the formula in Pittsburgh. But Nutting did offer some guidance on how the club is spending some of the $50MM it took home as its cut of the MLB Advanced Media sale. The organization intends to double the scale of its facility in the Dominican Republic, helping to facilitate a pipeline of affordable young talent. That sort of investment won’t boost present big leaguers — quite the contrary, perhaps. It’s of greater concern when viewed through the lens of the international changes instituted in the latest collective bargaining agreement, which place hard caps on the bonuses that can be paid to the very same players the Pirates are investing heavily in wooing and developing.
  • Nutting did note that he would like to see some changes in the amateur intake system, however. Just what that might look like isn’t clear, but the Bucs owner suggested that minor-league earnings are in need of some corrections. As Brink quoted him on Twitter: “It’s time, and it’s past due, to take a serious, fresh look at how those are being handled.”

 

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Bryce Harper Meeting With Phillies Owner John Middleton

By Jeff Todd | February 22, 2019 at 8:14pm CDT

8:32pm: There is a meeting, Heyman tweets, but the matter of Harper’s destination has yet to be decided. Other teams are still involved at this point.

8:14pm: Private planes and visits to Las Vegas have featured prominently throughout the courtship of free agent outfielder Bryce Harper, and that’s true again tonight. Phillies owner John Middleton — or, at least, his jet — is currently gracing the tarmac in Harper’s hometown, a source tells Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (Twitter link).

“Team Bryce” (presumably, the player, his wife, his agent Scott Boras, and others) is also in Sin City at the moment, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter link). That makes it easy to imagine a forthcoming late-night rendezvous between representatives of the open market’s most willing spender and its biggest star — though Heyman adds that Middleton appears to be on his own, without president Andy MacPhail or GM Matt Klentak.

Of course, we’ve yet to hear any specific indication that a meeting is in the works. At this stage of the proceedings, though, even the (seemingly strong) possibility warrants close attention. Harper, after all, took center stage when Manny Machado recently signed a ten-year, $300MM pact with the Padres. He was joined in the spotlight by the Phils, who came in third in the bidding for Machado after entering the winter with expectations of landing a superstar.

These sides have held an in-person pow-wow already, back in early January. That was perhaps more of a meet-and-great. It’s fair to wonder whether a repeat visit is designed to finalize agreement on what promises to be a very large contract. Middleton and Boras combined last winter to deliver Jake Arrieta to his new home on a private jet; it could be they’re making similar arrangements now.

The market developments have remained mysterious since Machado reportedly agreed to terms. Word emerged (see here and here) that the Phillies felt in command, with the Giants still involved, the Padres trying to see if they could somehow finagle a stunning double-play, and the White Sox bowing out of contention. Today, the Nationals seemingly indicated they were on the sidelines.

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Valuing A Chris Sale Extension

By Jeff Todd | February 22, 2019 at 6:45pm CDT

As he closes in on his 30th birthday and the start of his tenth season of action in the big leagues, Chris Sale (through his reps at Jet Sports Management) is engaged in at least some level of discussion with the Red Sox regarding an extension. The upcoming season is the final year of control under the deal Sale originally signed with the White Sox, adding some impetus to discussions.

It’s a fascinating situation to consider, owing to a variety of considerations. From a narrative perspective, the club’s whiff on Jon Lester years ago provides obvious fodder for comparisons. And an otherwise quiet winter from the defending World Series champs also makes for an intriguing backdrop.

The really interesting part, though, is the valuation itself. Starting pitchers have found a fair bit of success at prying monster deals from clubs entering a walk year. Clayton Kershaw’s original extension (seven years, $215MM plus opt-out) is the largest, but Stephen Strasburg’s recent $175MM deal also makes for a notable recent data point. Both of those pitchers were more youthful than Sale, but Justin Verlander’s second extension (which added five years and $140MM to his existing deal) was signed at a comparable age point (and two seasons in advance of his free agency).

That’s not to say that any of those particular deals really looks to be a perfect comp for Sale. Rather, they go to show that Sale can and should be looking for a contract that values his would-be free agent seasons at their anticipated market value.

On the other hand, there’s also no small amount of risk to be priced in here. That was the case with those other contracts, to be sure, but in this case the team will no doubt be particularly wary. After all, Sale missed five starts last year with still-mysterious shoulder issues. Though he’s said not to have exhibited structural problems, he showed some potentially worrisome velocity changes (with a correspondingly wandering release point) last year.

Both the team and Sale himself surely know quite a bit more than we do about his health. Certainly, his overall track record is one of excellent durability. While Sale’s funky delivery and big velocity readings have long led to predictions of physical ailments, he averaged 30 starts and 205 frames annually from 2012 through 2017.

Whatever the health risk may be relative to other pitchers, there’s little denying that Sale’s recent performance track record is quite free of red flags. All told, Sale has a 2.89 ERA in nearly 1500 career MLB innings and currently sits as the all-time leader in K/9 and K/BB ratio.

Importantly, too, he was in top form last year. Sale was deployed judiciously in the 2018 postseason but did record 24 strikeouts in 15 1/3 frames. Before that, he handled 158 regular-season innings, over which he allowed just 37 earned runs on 102 hits and 34 walks while racking up a whopping 237 strikeouts. When you smooth out the ups and downs in the radar readings, Sale threw harder overall last year than he ever has as a starter (95.7 mph average four-seamer). He also generated more swinging strikes than ever before (15.8%).

Those facts seem to distinguish Sale from Kershaw, who recently provided another notable contractual point to consider. The Dodger star’s new deal was hammered out in a near-open-market scenario, in the window before he had to decide whether to opt out of the final two years and $65MM of the aforementioned contract. The sides came up with a rather unique arrangement: three years, $93MM, with $12MM in total incentives that are achievable in full if Kershaw is at full health throughout the deal. Kershaw turns 31 in March, just before his new deal begins, so that contract covers almost the exact same age period as Sale’s next contract will. Not unlike Sale, Kershaw missed a few outings last year but still generated impressive results. Unlike Sale, Kershaw has exhibited more significant and long-lasting concerns in terms of his stuff and peripherals. The Dodger stalwart averaged 162 innings annually in the three seasons preceding his deal, with a series of back issues limiting his availability, tamping down his velocity, and reducing him from the game’s best pitcher to “merely” one of its best.

In the Kershaw scenario, it seems fair to say that the Dodgers mostly took a health discount by limiting the length of the commitment and including a hefty, easily achievable, but health-dependent incentives structure. It’s the kind of contract we might have expected, in the not-so-distant past, for an outstanding pitcher of an older age. That Kershaw took it at a relatively youthful stage is testament both to the level of concern with his long-term outlook and perhaps also the newfound market commitment of many teams to avoid obligating payroll space too far into the future (particularly for players in their mid-30s).

It seems easy to say that Sale won’t need to settle for the Kershaw deal to get something done. The latter has had the more impressive overall career, but his recent red flags are impossible to ignore. Still, it’s an interesting general scenario to contemplate when imagining what a deal could look like.

How’s it look for players who hit free agency under more favorable circumstances? The approach long has been to chase the biggest and lengthiest deal on the open market. David Price ($217MM) and Max Scherzer ($210MM) were each a bit younger when they secured their seven-year mega-deals — both turned 31 during the first seasons of their new contracts — than Sale will be when he hits the open market. Zack Greinke, the only other pitcher to top $200MM, turned 32 just before reaching free agency, so he was a fair bit older. He got six years and $206.5MM, easily setting a Major League record (which he still holds) with an average annual value north of $34MM.

There’s little question that Sale could position himself for massive earnings in the 2019-20 offseason with a performance that mirrors his 2018 in quality and his prior career in durability. Sale could be joined by some big names on the open market, but he almost surely possesses the greatest earning upside of any possible free-agent starter. Price’s total guarantee and Greinke’s AAV marks both seem theoretically achievable, though it’s arguable whether that kind of coin will still be available in today’s market. Even if we could accurately gauge Sale’s true earning ceiling, which would depend upon quite a few market factors, reaching it represents only one of several conceivable scenarios. With something less than full health, or declines in velocity and/or effectiveness, Sale’s earning power would obviously begin to slide.

So, where might we anticipate the price tag landing in extension talks? Sale will earn $15MM in 2019 regardless of any new deal, so we’ll consider only the future seasons. Presumably, the Red Sox will look for some kind of discount (in salary, years, or both) to account for the health uncertainty — both that of any pitcher separated from free agency by a full season and whatever added questions come with Sale. Might the Boston organization seek to cabin the length of the contract? Or would it be amenable to a lengthier deal that spreads the guarantee over a longer span, thus reducing the annual luxury tax hit? And what about Sale’s own preferences?

Supposing the Sox are willing to go to Greinke levels on the AAV but not on the term, it’s possible to imagine a five-year extension in the range of $175MM. That figure would also match the recent Strasburg deal, albeit over a shorter duration (his was for seven years) — arguably a fair result for a more accomplished and consistent, but also less youthful starter. But is that really the most sensible approach? Perhaps the team would rather stretch things out, even if it means committing to additional seasons. Adding six years at $190MM would not greatly expand the Red Sox’ overall commitment. For one thing, it’s reasonable to anticipate that Sale will still be a useful-enough pitcher at the end of that deal to warrant his salary. There’s a risk he won’t be, certainly, but there’s also real upside (see, e.g., Verlander) as well as the promise of continued inflation driving down the effective price.

Interestingly, the club’s luxury tax situation also increases the value of spreading the AAV. Let’s do a bit of math to see how this looks. Sale’s original extension, signed before the 2013 season, will have paid him a total of $59MM over seven seasons, but option years are treated as one-off seasons for purposes of the competitive balance tax calculation. That means that Sale’s hit to the Sox’ books this year will be his current salary of $15MM. Modifying his forward-looking contract rights, though, would change that number by adding the new years and dollars and then re-running the AAV. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined recently with regard to a hypothetical re-signing of Craig Kimbrel, any new money added to the Boston luxury ledger is going to be taxed at a hefty rate. A new deal for Sale would not only trigger a drop in draft placement but would also mean a big tax bill increase. You can find the details there; for our purposes, since a new deal would certainly be of sufficient magnitude to push the club into the top tax bracket, the Red Sox would pay 75 cents for every additional dollar of AAV they take on. And that’s just for the 2019 season. If the organization continues to exceed the luxury line, it’ll keep getting hit with bills — every one of which will be impacted by Sale’s AAV.

It’s not hard to see how adding a season or even two at a relatively lesser salary might begin to make sense, particularly when one includes the concept of the time-value of money. Here are a few scenarios to kick around (all dollars in millions):

Extension Years Extension Money Extension AAV Cumulative AAV 2019 Tax Increase
5 $150 $30.00 $27.50 $7.83
5 $175 $35.00 $31.67 $10.96
6 $160 $26.67 $25.00 $5.96
6 $180 $30.00 $27.86 $8.10
6 $192 $32.00 $29.57 $9.39
6 $207 $34.42 $31.64 $10.94
7 $175 $25.00 $23.75 $5.02
7 $200 $28.57 $26.88 $7.37
7 $217 $31.00 $29.00 $8.96

These are, of course, largely random price points (some of which connect to contract comps noted above, others of which are simply round numbers). But they serve to show how much cash the Red Sox could in theory be forced to take on right now if they really want to avoid paying Sale past his mid-30s. That hit, as noted already, would potentially be repeated in future seasons in which the club nears or passes the luxury line. Those considerations may well factor into the organization’s approach, whatever level of health-related discount is deemed necessary to make a contract appealing.

If a lengthier, more spread-out deal might make greater sense for the ballclub, what about Sale? As my colleague Steve Adams reminded me, the southpaw hinted recently that he could go looking to set new high-water marks of some kind. As Sale put it: “You want to do right by the guys who are coming next year, two years, 10 years down the road because you kind of set the bar and the next guy who comes along either gets to that bar or sets it a little more.”

If he intends to raise the bar in an extension scenario, one full season removed from the open market, there’s no realistic way he’s going to top the line set by Price. Breaking the overall guarantee record (seven years, $217MM) would almost certainly mean pitching in 2019 before negotiating his next contract. On the other hand, Sale could take aim at Greinke’s AAV mark. In that case, though, it’s awfully tough to see the Red Sox making a commitment past five additional seasons (if they’re willing to make such a deal in the first place).

Perhaps Sale’s bar-raising sentiments shouldn’t be taken too literally. He no doubt appreciates that an extension situation necessarily involves other considerations (and lacks competitive bidding). A hurler of his age reaching the $200MM mark in new money, say, would represent a notable achievement even if it came with a relatively less-impressive AAV and didn’t really set any recognizable records. In terms of maximizing his own career earnings (without taking the risk of first pitching another season), there’s not a whole lot of downside to going for the biggest total guarantee possible at this stage, even if it effectively means taking a cheaper valuation for the last season or two of the new contract. Even if Sale were to hit the open market on the upswing in his later years — as may well occur next winter for Verlander — the additional earning ceiling at that point would be fairly limited, at least in terms of contract length.

If there’s a deal to be made here, then, the sweet spot could actually be on a longer term than might be anticipated at first glance. As the foregoing discussion shows, though, there’s also quite a lot for both sides to think about — and quite a lot we don’t know. The major wild card, perhaps, is the sides’ respective levels of concern with Sale’s shoulder. It’ll be fascinating to see how things proceed if Sale and the Red Sox end up making a concerted effort over the coming weeks to work out a deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals Chris Sale

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Padres Sign Manny Machado

By Jeff Todd | February 21, 2019 at 5:30pm CDT

Feb. 21: The Padres have formally announced the signing and confirmed the terms of the contract (10 years, $300MM). To clear room on the 40-man roster, right-hander Dinelson Lamet was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Per Heyman, the deal will pay Machado $30MM annually and contain a six-team no-trade clause (Twitter links). Technically, the first season of the deal is paid out in the form of a $10MM salary and a $20MM signing bonus — that latter of which is not subject to the same level of taxation as Machado’s actual salary. Machado will play third base in San Diego.

Feb. 19, 10:20pm: Machado’s deal doesn’t contain any deferred money, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.

6:23pm: Machado’s deal will contain limited no-trade protection, Passan tweets. The contract should be formally announced Thursday or Friday, he adds.

12:58pm: There are some key elements of the deal still to be worked out, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Notably, the sides have yet to hammer out terms on trade protection. That said, it seems the final pieces are not expected to pose an obstacle to the contract’s completion. Machado will receive the $300MM on a fairly evenly spread basis, with the opt-out chance midway through the deal.

11:27am: The Padres have agreed to terms on a free agent contract with star infielder Manny Machado, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). It’s a ten-year, $300MM deal for the MVP Sports Group client, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). The contract includes an opt-out after the fifth season, per Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link).

Nothing is formally concluded here, it bears noting. If nothing else, it seems a physical will still need to be completed. Padres chairman Ron Fowler says a deal is not complete, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter), saying the sides are “continuing discussions.” Of course, that hardly means there isn’t an agreement in principle on the key terms.

Certainly, the White Sox believe they’ve lost their primary winter target. VP Kenny Williams expressed shock in comments to reporters. “We could not go to that $300MM level,” he said (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, Twitter links). Williams indicated that he had believed the South Siders were the high bidders, and he maintains “there was more potential for him to make more here than that reported deal.” It seems, though, that Machado preferred the greater guaranteed money and other elements of his new deal to the structure proposed by a White Sox organization that had rolled out quite a welcome mat, including the acquisition of Machado’s comrades Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay.

It’s a stunning result for the 26-year-old Machado, whose long-running open-market saga has coincided with that of fellow star Bryce Harper. It took some time, but Machado will still spend the bulk of Spring Training with his new teammates.

Last year, the Friars shocked the baseball world by outbidding the market for first baseman Eric Hosmer. Now, they’ve followed up that move with a much bigger commitment to an even better and younger player.

The move plainly sets the Padres organization on a course to compete in the near-term, though the investment will hopefully coincide with a rather lengthy competitive window. It’s reasonable to wonder, though, whether this move sets the stage for further action this winter. The Padres have a fairly crowded outfield group, a ton of top prospect talent, and clear room to improve the MLB pitching staff. They could consider pursuing the top remaining open-market pitchers (Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez) while revisiting trade talks on other starters.

[RELATED: MLBTR Free Agent Tracker]

It’s not hard to see how this signing could have a ripple effect in the market, with the potential for a highly intriguing late-spring reignition of the hot stove. If nothing else, there’s now a clear mark for Harper to try to top, with several teams potentially interested in landing him after missing on Machado.

The 10/300 price is precisely where many anticipated Machado landing at the outset of the market. It sets a free agent record in terms of total guarantee, at least before adjusting for inflation, though falls shy of Giancarlo Stanton’s extension and may soon be topped by Harper’s own deal.

Despite his excellence to this point of his career, and the promise of many more productive seasons to come, Machado entered the market with some questions. He raised eyebrows with some questionable acts and words during the postseason, leaving many fans — and perhaps some organizational leaders — with the sense that, as he himself put it, he’s “not the type of player that’s going to be ’Johnny Hustle.'”

Clearly, those oft-cited comments didn’t cost Machado a chance at a massive contract. He also picked up support of several former teammates and coaches, so it’s not as if there weren’t countervailing facts. Clearly, though, the ill-advised words didn’t help his cause. We’ll never know the full extent of the impact, but reduced interest from even a single potential suitor could have changed the way the market took shape. The Yankees never fully engaged despite making sense on paper, while it seems the Phillies passed on a chance to outbid the more budget-conscious Padres, though those and other organizations were surely weighing other factors as well.

In truth, the hustle chatter held such attention in no small part due to Machado’s otherwise mostly impeccable resume. He has topped 6 fWAR in three of the past four seasons, owing to a combination of outstanding glovework and well-rounded offensive production. Despite some knee issues earlier in his career, Machado has played all 162 games in two seasons (2015, 2018) and missed just 11 total contests in the two intervening campaigns.

Over his seven seasons in the majors, Machado carries a .282/.335/.487 batting line with 175 home runs. That perhaps understates his present ability with the bat, though, as Machado has posted 130+ wRC+ campaigns in three of the past four years and has hit between 33 and 37 long balls in all four seasons. He has also successfully honed his plate discipline over the years, setting career-best marks in 2018 with a 9.9% walk rate and 14.7% strikeout rate.

It’s a more interesting question on the defensive side of things. Machado had long graded as an outstanding defender at third base, but drew negative reviews upon shifting back to his native shortstop in 2018. Of course, the numbers reversed somewhat after he landed with the Dodgers in a mid-season trade, perhaps indicating that he still has the potential to handle short at an average or better clip if surrounded by the appropriate analytical resources and adjacent defenders.

Regardless, the plan seems to be for Machado to slide back to the hot corner in San Diego. The club has been searching for a piece there all winter long. Indications are that Luis Urias (with an assist from Greg Garcia) will keep the seat warm at shortstop while uber prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. finishes his development. Urias could ultimately slide back to second, though that position is occupied for the time being by veteran Ian Kinsler. Of course, as noted above, it still seems premature to guess at the overall roster picture, as the Padres could explore a nearly endless variety of complementary moves.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Newsstand San Diego Padres Transactions Manny Machado

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Injury Notes: Manaea, Kaprielian, Smith, Gibaut, Basabe

By Jeff Todd | February 21, 2019 at 4:10pm CDT

The Athletics seem to be receiving more promising news on the pitching front, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle has reported (Twitter links). Southpaw Sean Manaea is said to be “well ahead” of schedule in his effort to return from shoulder surgery. Whether that means there’s real hope he’ll be able to make it back on the MLB mound this season isn’t clear, but it appears that’s at least a possibility given that Manaea is beginning to throw. Meanwhile, youngster James Kaprielian seems to be making a quick recovery from the lat issue that sidelined him at the outset of camp. The last thing anyone wanted to see was another significant health problem for him, so that’s certainly promising news.

More on the injury front …

  • Tigers righty Chris Smith appears headed for Tommy John surgery, as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com was among those to report on Twitter. It’s dreadful news for a hurler who has only briefly touched the majors but seemed to have a shot at earning a pen spot in Detroit. Smith pitched to a 3.93 ERA with 10.6 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 last year at the Triple-A level.
  • The Rays will likely go without righty Ian Gibaut to open the season, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. It seems the broader prognosis for his lat injury is a good one, but the club will likely take things slow with the 25-year-old hurler. Gibaut hasn’t yet thrown at the game’s highest level, but has generally torched minor-league hitters throughout his four seasons as a pro. Last year, he worked to a 2.09 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 over 56 Triple-A frames.
  • Veteran utilityman Sean Rodriguez has a meniscus tear that may require surgery, per Matt Breen of Philly.com (Twitter link). That likely won’t make for a terribly lengthy absence, but obviously knocks out any chance of him breaking camp with the Phillies. Rodriguez could certainly still challenge for a job in Philadelphia or elsewhere after working back to health.
  • White Sox prospect Luis Alexander Basabe has a hamate fracture, as MLB.com’s Scott Merkin recently reported on Twitter. That’ll keep him from full game action for about three months, according to initial estimates. Basabe, 22, isn’t a near-term consideration at the MLB level, so this news won’t have much of an immediate impact. It will slow his start to the season, though, which is unfortunate — particularly since he was looking to bounce back from a tepid showing at Double-A and tough trip through the Arizona Fall League.
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MLBTR Chat Transcript: Padres, Harper, Red Sox, More

By Jeff Todd | February 21, 2019 at 2:05pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.

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Giants To Sign Fernando Abad

By Jeff Todd | February 21, 2019 at 1:34pm CDT

The Giants have reached agreement on a minors deal with lefty Fernando Abad, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The deal will not include a MLB camp invite; Abad would earn a $800K salary in the majors.

Abad, 33, had seen big league time in eight-straight seasons before falling short in 2018. He might well have been back in the bigs at some point, but it emerged during camp that he was facing a lengthy PED suspension. Abad was ultimately hit with an 80-game ban that sidelined him for most of the year. He did not sign with a team thereafter.

Over 317 2/3 total innings at the game’s highest level, Abad carries a 3.65 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Historically, he has been quite a bit more effective against opposing lefty hitters (.237/.287/.383; 144:31 K/BB) than those who own the platoon advantage (.258/.338/.412; 127:82 K/BB).

If he can force his way into the competition, Abad could join a long list of competitors for pen roles. Beyond a reasonably lengthy slate of existing hurlers with at least some MLB experience, newcomers include Rule 5 pick Travis Bergen, switch-pitcher Pat Venditte, DFA trade acquisitions Jake Barrett and Trevor Gott, and minor-league signees Nick Vincent and Keyvius Sampson. There may not be many open spots up for grabs at the moment, but that could change if the club swings late deals on its best relievers.

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San Francisco Giants Transactions Fernando Abad

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Giants Sign Nick Vincent

By Jeff Todd | February 21, 2019 at 1:04pm CDT

The Giants have agreed to a contract with right-hander Nick Vincent, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets. Vincent will join the MLB side of camp, but on a minor-league deal, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter link).

Vincent, 32, owns a sparkling 3.17 ERA over his 332 total MLB innings, so the track record of outcomes is certainly an appealing one. He ended the 2018 campaign with a personal-worst 3.99 ERA, though, and ended up being non-tendered when the Mariners decided not to pay a projected $3.5MM salary.

Given the outcome of his foray onto the open market, MLB teams aren’t terribly optimistic as to Vincent’s ability to keep up his career earned run average. The signing seems like quite a nice move from the Giants’ perspective, though, as Vincent has not only managed to find success over a long stretch but has been supported (at times, at least) by a closer examination.

Vincent, in fact, is something of a darling of certain ERA estimators, though that’s due more to his earlier-career combination of excellent K/BB rates and low home run tallies. More recently, Vincent has proven less than immune to the long ball. Still, metrics have generally valued him as a useful pitcher — including both last year (3.75 FIP, 4.51 xFIP, 3.72 SIERA) and over his full career to date (3.09 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, 3.27 SIERA).

Statcast, likewise, gives cause for optimism. Vincent has been among the league’s best at limiting exit velocity over the past two seasons. During the Statcast era, opposing hitters have managed only a .283 wOBA against Vincent. And that’s actually just a shade higher than the .279 xwOBA that the computers would have anticipated.

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San Francisco Giants Transactions Nick Vincent

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Twins Interested In Marwin Gonzalez

By Jeff Todd | February 21, 2019 at 11:13am CDT

The Twins are showing interest in free agent infielder/outfielder Marwin Gonzalez, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription link). The Minnesota organization has “discussed the parameters of a three-year deal,” per the report.

Gonzalez’s market has moved slowly all winter long, but Hayes says the Twins feel there’s “strong competition” from other teams to secure his services. That’s generally promising news for one of the game’s best utilitymen, whose market situation has remained rather foggy.

MLBTR originally predicted a four-year, $36MM deal for Gonzalez. It seems he and his representatives at the Boras Corporation set out with a hefty asking price in the range of $60MM.

For the Twins, adding Gonzalez would represent an interesting, late-breaking move. The club’s recent pair of extensions finally added money to its previously pristine future balance sheets, but it has otherwise focused its spending on players who’ll leave the books after the 2019 season. It seems there’s still quite a bit of untapped payroll availability for both this campaign and those in the near future, though that doesn’t mean the organization is anxious to fill it.

Gonzalez would make for an interesting roster fit in Minnesota. The switch-hitter could conceivably appear just about anywhere on the diamond, as he long has with the Astros. He’d theoretically supplement and serve as a back-up plan at every spot in the infield while perhaps also commanding some playing time in the corner outfield as well.

The Twins’ presumptive starting infield unit is full of righty bats — switch-hitting shortstop Jorge Polanco is an exception, but he has historically fared better from the right side — so it’s not hard to see how Gonzalez might find his way into the lineup quite often. Looking ahead, both second baseman Jonathan Schoop and DH Nelson Cruz could be free agents at season’s end, while the team isn’t committed to first baseman C.J. Cron, so there’ll be holes to fill in the near future as well.

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Minnesota Twins Marwin Gonzalez

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