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Latest On Astros’ Rotation Battle

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Astros righty Josh James has been diagnosed with a strained right quad, skipper A.J. Hinch told reporters including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (links to Twitter). The injury “probably takes [James] out of the conversation” for the club’s final rotation spot, per Hinch.

Fortunately, there’s no reason to believe this injury is of long-term concern. To the contrary, James will remain a candidate to break camp on the MLB roster in a relief role. James, who is days away from his 26th birthday, showed eye-popping stuff in both capacities during a brief but exciting 2018 debut.

So, how will the club fill out its rotation? Hinch specifically ruled out some of the club’s most-hyped young arms, making clear that Forrest Whitley, Corbin Martin, and J.B. Bukauskas are still not prepared to jump up to the MLB level (at least as starters).

Rome suggests that there is still a fair bit of competition. Brad Peacock is certainly the most experienced option. He’ll try to fend off younger hurlers Framber Valdez, Brady Rodgers, Cionel Perez, and Rogelio Armenteros.

Until he signs elsewhere, of course, southpaw Dallas Keuchel remains at least a hypothetical possibility. The veteran starter and the Astros’ brass have kept the door open to a return in their public comments, though it seems he’s still hoping to secure a larger commitment from another club.

Recent History Of March Signings

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March is just around the corner. If you hadn’t noticed, a fair number of notable players remain unsigned. The very top of MLBTR’s pre-winter top-fifty free agent list remains well-represented on the open market, with a smattering of other notable players also still unsigned. This represents a continuation of the surge of late signings observed last winter, which was the first offseason conducted under the current collective bargaining agreement.

It’s not hard to see that the market is functioning differently under the new CBA. Here’s a listing of the most notable players who’ve yet to sign this year, alongside the recent history of MLB contracts inked during the month of March:

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Service Time Perspectives: Vlad, Bryant, Senzel

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With camp in full swing, we’re watching some of the game’s very best prospects share the field with existing big leaguers. That creates opportunity both for excitement at the youngsters’ eventual regular-season ascent and consternation at the anticipated timing thereof. As teams near decision points on another crop of players, with accusations of service-time manipulation already lurking, let’s take a look at some interesting recent comments on prospect promotion timing:

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins discussed uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Citing the organization’s focus on “development,” Atkins says of Guerrero: “I just don’t see him as a major league player.” While the consensus top prospect in baseball “has accomplished everything he can accomplish as an offensive player” in the minors, Atkins says, there’s evidently more he needs to work on before he’s to be trusted with a big league job. That includes “the physical aspect, the baserunning, the defense,” per the GM. (That first point represents a nod at Guerrero’s shape, John Lott of The Athletic suggests on Twitter.) The Toronto organization wants Guerrero to “start[] with an incredible foundation” once he reaches the majors so that it can “tap into all of that potential,” says Atkins. Some projection systems already regard Guerrero as one of the most capable hitters on the planet, even without having seen him against MLB pitching, so there’s no question of his readiness in that regard. The Jays, though, purport to believe that the other aspects of his game can benefit more from further game action at the Triple-A level.
  • There are certainly those who’d take a skeptical view of the true motivations where Guerrero and others are concerned. Cubs star Kris Bryant is among them, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Bryant believes the annual top-prospect hold-back represents an effort by teams to exploit “a loophole in the system.” His own promotion timeline more or less represents the most outwardly obvious service-time manipulation imaginable: Bryant was a polished, well-rounded college player who had laid waste to the upper minors and Cactus League pitching and was called upon as soon as the team secured the ability to control him for a full additional season. “It’s funny how obvious it can be,” said Bryant. “But now I can look back on it and just laugh about it because I was told to work on my defense too and I think I got three groundballs in those games that I played,” he added. The Chicago third baseman says that solving the issue will require “compromise” and “a logical solution,” noting that changes to free agent outcomes also serve to highlight the concerns for players.
  • Another much-hyped young player, top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, also has adopted a realistic (bordering on jaded) perspective as he nears his debut. He tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s skeptical whether he really has a chance to head north out of camp with the MLB club. “Do I believe it? No,” he said of the Reds’stated intention to carry their best roster out of the gate without reference to service time. “But that’s just my honest opinion. We’ll see.” The Reds do have cover in this case, as Senzel’s 2018 season was cut short by injury and he’s transitioning to a new position, though he could put any questions to rest over the next few weeks. It’s particularly frustrating in Senzel’s case, Rosencrans notes, because he was on track to receive a late-2018 call-up before suffering a broken index finger that cost him the second half of last year.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Nolan Arenado Extension

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Rockies star Nolan Arenado has been a consistent star on both sides of the ball for some time now. He’ll turn 28 early in the 2019 season, meaning that his monster new contract runs through his age-35 season.

It’s easy to like the Rockies’ decision at first glance. Arenado joins Charlie Blackmon as a homegrown star who’ll stick around through his prime. The organization clearly intends to keep a contention window propped open for some time, even if that means committing to some rather lofty spending levels. With other talent on hand, and more intriguing players filtering up through the system, a sustained run of competitiveness is perhaps within reach.

The risks, though, lurk just below the surface. Blackmon took a step back in 2019 and the team has some other hefty commitments to underperforming players. The club will open the 2019 season with over $140MM on the books for the first time and already has north of $110MM obligated for 2020, along with $70MM or so for the following season. Arbitration obligations will rise as well.

Arenado’s deal sets an AAV record for position players and is unquestionably a major commitment. It gives him full no-trade protection, so the Rockies may find it challenging to move the deal if that proves necessary. The team granted Arenado the ability to bail out and test the open market after three seasons, too, meaning he holds the upside with ample downside protection as well. While Arenado would have had a chance to beat seven years and $234MM in free agency next winter, it’s tough to say that represents any kind of discount, particularly when locked in a year in advance.

Paying market value doesn’t mean the Rox were misguided, of course. By doing so now, they kept other clubs from out-bidding or otherwise wooing their best and most popular player. There was obviously a significant risk of being forced to choose between losing Arenado or paying a fair bit more to retain him, particularly with numerous big-market clubs reputedly eyeing him as a target.

All things considered, how do you grade the deal from the Rockies’ perspective? (Link for app users.)

Central Injury Notes: Darvish, Gray, Duffy, Dunning

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Though he was clearly carrying plenty of rust, Cubs righty Yu Darvish nevertheless turned in a rather promising first spring outing today, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes. Darvish says he felt great and the radar guns reflected it. While he struggled a bit to stay in the zone, that’s a secondary concern at this point given the major health ailments that ruined his 2018 season. With $101MM still owed to Darvish over the next five years, the Cubs have to be encouraged to see him feeling strong, though he still has a ways to go to reestablish himself as a front-line starter.

More health notes from the central divisions …

  • Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, who was scratched from his spring debut due to some elbow stiffness, is expected to throw a bullpen session Thursday, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The team’s most notable offseason addition to the rotation, Gray will also throw from flat ground at a distance of 120 feet today, per the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay (Twitter link). Manager David Bell told Feinsand that Gray was initially concerned about the elbow discomfort but is in vastly better spirits and has felt improvement each day since being scratched. For the time being, it seems, the Reds have decreasing reason to be concerned about Gray’s status.
  • The Royals are “backing off” from using Danny Duffy for the time being, manager Ned Yost tells reporters (Twitter links via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). The southpaw experienced tightness in his shoulder and had difficulty getting loose for his latest side session, though he eventually completed that session. Duffy feels it’s a minor issue and some standard-issue early spring stiffness. The Royals are already down a rotation candidate with righty Trevor Oaks perhaps headed for hip surgery, and subtracting arguably their most talented starter from the mix would be a considerably more damaging blow. Duffy, 30, struggled through a down season in 2018 but was Kansas City’s best arm in 2016-17 when he worked to a 3.64 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 326 innings.
  • There was some ominous news out of White Sox camp, as Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets that pitching prospect Dane Dunning is due for a closer medical look after experiencing forearm discomfort. The talented young righty has shown quite well ever since he cracked the professional ranks and entered the 2018 campaign as a consensus top-100 prospect leaguewide. Unfortunately, he missed half of the 2018 season owing to an elbow sprain. The hope was that Dunning would be able to pick up where he left off this spring.

Rob Whalen Announces Retirement

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In a statement released via Twitter, right-hander Rob Whalen announced his retirement from the game at just 25 years of age. He says he feels “God has other plans in store.”

Whalen cites his “battle with depression/anxiety over the last 2 years” as an underlying factor in his decision. Those interested in learning more about Whalen’s path can find his story here, as told to David Laurila of Fangraphs.

Drafted in the 12th round of the 2012 draft by the Mets, Whalen was eventually a part of two trades: the 2015 deal that sent Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe from the Braves to the Mets and the swap in the 2016-17 offseason in which Alex Jackson went to Atlanta. In both deals, Whalen was traded along with another young right-hander (John Gant in the former and Max Povse in the latter).

Whalen earned his way to the majors in 2016 with a strong showing in the upper minors, throwing 120 innings of 2.40 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. Things have not gone well since, however, due in no small part to Whalen’s struggles with depression and anxiety. Ultimately, he saw action in each of the past three MLB seasons, pitching to a cumulative 5.75 ERA in 36 innings.

In his statement, Whalen says that he has “learned that [he] can have a fulfilling life outside of baseball.” MLBTR wishes him good fortune in doing just that.

West Notes: Preller, Harper, Halos, Kikuchi

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Padres GM A.J. Preller has a lot riding on his hand-picked roster, particularly with the team now having made a huge commitment to Manny Machado, and he laid out his belief in the club not long after announcing the Machado deal. As Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports, the top San Diego baseball decisionmaker turned in a fiery locker-room speech that seems to have made quite an impression on the players. It was a rare address for Preller, who sent the message that this group was compiled with winning intentions. There’s no shortage of interesting storylines to watch in San Diego — Machado’s impact, remaining roster needs, camp battles, prospect timelines — some of which may well carry into the regular season.

More from out west …

  • It’d be a convenient narrative to see the Dodgers’ late-breaking pursuit of Bryce Harper as something of a response to their division rivals to the south, but there’s really no reason to believe that’s much of a factor. Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times examines what might actually be driving the Los Angeles powerhouse, suggesting that the foray into the superstar’s market may just be an attempt to see if Harper “is open to striking a deal on their terms — and their terms only.” Hernandez argues that the Dodgers should be willing “to create exceptions to their analytically dictated rules” in situations like these, but casts ample doubt as to whether the organization will in fact do so.
  • Elsewhere in the greater Los Angeles region, the city of Long Beach, California appears to be making a play to woo the Angels, according to a report from Jason Ruiz of the Long Beach Post. Details are scant at the moment, but it seems the pitch involves a waterfront ballpark lot. Long Beach mayor Robert Garcia acknowledged having “approached the Angels” to open a dialogue on a possible move. Long Beach has a history with the Halos, including some serious dalliances in the past. For the time being, the club is still under contract to remain in Anaheim through at least 2020. Long-term talks to stay in Angels Stadium are ongoing, with some recent warming of relations but plenty of uncertainty overall.
  • While a spring outing won’t be mistaken for the real thing, it was nevertheless fascinating to observe how MLB newcomer Yusei Kikuchi fared in his first game appearance in Mariners duds. As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports, the initial showing was fairly impressive. Kikuchi managed to induce a ghastly swinging strikeout from none other than Joey Votto, who afterward praised the “potential” (and relative rarity) of Kikuchi’s “very good” and “very surprising” curve. Seattle manager Scott Servais felt his new workhorse “was outstanding for the first time out there.” The M’s committed at least four years and $56MM to Kikuchi, a significant outlay for a club that spent the winter focusing on the near-future (2020 and beyond) rather than the immediate future (the coming season). His ability to translate his success in Japan’s top league to the majors will factor heavily into the Seattle organization’s ability to rebound quickly into full competitiveness.

Health Notes: Nelson, Herrera, Swanson, Oaks

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Brewers hurler Jimmy Nelson is pausing his throwing program owing to “arm fatigue discomfort,” president of baseball operations David Stearns tells reporters including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. All involved say they’re unconcerned with the development, with manager Craig Counsell labeling it “a very minor setback.” It has been a long road back already for Nelson, who hasn’t thrown a competitive inning since undergoing a labrum procedure in September of 2017. He’ll need to wait a while longer before taking the bump in a Spring Training contest, with the club understandably maintaining a conservative plan in light of his health history.

More health notes from around the game …

  • The Phillies say that outfielder Odubel Herrera is dealing with a grade 1 hamstring strain, Matt Breen of Philly.com reports on Twitter. He’s said to be “coming along,” though skipper Gabe Kapler couldn’t specify when Herrera will be ready to take the field. It’s not a terribly worrying injury at the outset of camp, though it will limit Herrera’s opportunities to get in a groove after a disappointing 2018 season. The wild card in the situation is the Phils’ ongoing pursuit of Bryce Harper and their as-yet-unknown plans for shuffling the outfield deck if they sign him. The injury might impact Herrera’s marketability, if he’s a player the team would consider moving to make way for Harper.
  • Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson is readying for his first Spring Training game action at the end of the week, per Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). That seems to represent a positive sign for a player who underwent wrist surgery at the conclusion of the 2018 campaign. Swanson had a quiet but reasonably promising 2018 campaign, with sparkling glovework and baserunning making up for still-lagging production at the plate. Swanson produced only a .238/.304/.395 slash (80 wRC+) with 14 home runs and ten steals over 533 plate appearances, but that represented a step forward after a rough 2017 effort. He’ll open camp with a presumption of at least semi-regular playing time, but could face pressure from Johan Camargo over the course of the season.
  • Hip surgery is on the table for Royals righty Trevor Oaks, Rustin Dodd of The Athletic reports (subscription link). If it is determined that he needs to go under the knife for a labrum tear, the 25-year-old will miss a significant portion of the season to come. Oaks turned in 128 1/3 innings of 3.23 ERA ball at Triple-A last year after he was acquired in last winter’s Scott Alexander swap. He managed only 4.9 K/9 with 3.1 BB/9 on the year, though did post a 50.2% groundball rate (which actually lags his well-above-average minor-league career groundball numbers). Oaks also made a brief MLB debut in 2018. As Dodd explains, it didn’t seem likely that he’d crack the active roster to open the coming campaign. Nevertheless, the loss would dent the Royals’ rotation depth.

Clayton Kershaw Battling Shoulder Issue

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FEBRUARY 25, 6:19pm: Kershaw tried to play catch today but “didn’t feel great,” Roberts told reports including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (via Twitter), Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (Twitter link), and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (also on Twitter). The organization still doesn’t have plans for an MRI and will wait at least a few more days before allowing Kershaw to attempt throwing again.

“It’s not ideal,” Roberts acknowledged. “You’re hoping when he picks up a ball that he comes out of it feeling better. So obviously it’s not ideal. But we’ll deal with whatever comes our way.”

FEBRUARY 24, 9:50pm: Kershaw suggests the shoulder discomfort may stem from an attempt to add velocity this spring, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. No MRI was taken, but since being shut down Kershaw has been taking anti-inflammatories to improve the feeling in his shoulder, which appears to be effective. The plan is to have Kershaw resume his throwing activities on Monday.

12:54pm: Roberts provided some more details on Kershaw’s condition today, telling reporters (including Castillo and The Athletic’s Pedro Moura) that the issue is with Kershaw’s throwing shoulder.  The southpaw has been working to increase his velocity this offseason, which Roberts speculated as a possible contributor to the soreness.  There doesn’t appear to be any major concern about Kershaw, as Roberts said the hurler won’t be undergoing an MRI and is still expected to throw again within a few days’ time.  Kershaw is still expected to be on the mound for the Dodgers on Opening Day.

FEBRUARY 22: The Dodgers have shut down star hurler Clayton Kershaw indefinitely, manager Dave Roberts tells Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The venerable southpaw is dealing with an unspecified health issue that Roberts would describe only as an “arm kind of thing.”

Initial signals from the organization are that there’s nothing to worry about at this point. Kershaw says he’s “just going to take a few days right now” and adds that he expects to resume throwing in short order, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County-Register tweets.

In Roberts’s view, too, this is just an early pause “to just kind of step away, give him a couple days.” That said, he acknowledged that he “can’t say right now” just when Kershaw will be ready to ramp back up.

Clearly, there’s no reason to rush to judgment about what might be going on here. Given Kershaw’s recent health history, there’s also some reason for added concern. Both men were rather circumspect about the underlying issue, declining to clarify whether Kershaw’s prior back and shoulder problems were involved. For the time being, then, we’ll just have to wait to see how things progress and await further word.

Mike Soroka Experiencing Shoulder Discomfort

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TODAY: Sorokoa provided an update to reporters (including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and The Athletic’s David O’Brien), describing his shoulder issue as an “overload thing,” possibly from offseason workouts.  He said his current shoulder problem isn’t related to the injuries that plagued him last season, and that he expects to be throwing within a few days and then pitching in game action late in Spring Training.

FRIDAY: Braves righty Mike Soroka has been shut down for an as-yet-undetermined stretch after experiencing discomfort in his throwing shoulder, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com was among those to report. It seems he will not require an MRI at this time, with the suspicion being that he is just dealing with tendinitis.

The hope had been that Soroka would be able to participate fully in camp after indications were that he was throwing without pain in the run-up to Spring Training. He had shown quite a bit of promise in a brief MLB run in 2018, but missed much of the season owing to shoulder problems.

As things have shaken out, there’s no real path for Soroka to battle for an Opening Day rotation spot. Instead, per skipper Brian Snitker, the club’s training staff is “just going to slow play him now.” Soroka will get some rest and then be watched carefully as he attempts to ramp things back up.

The hope at this point is that it’s just a blip for the talented 21-year-old. Snitker says that “everything checks out fine” from a structural perspective and that Soroka’s “strength is fine.” There’s even hope that Soroka will be back on a throwing program within the week, per the manager.

Braves fans can breathe easy for the time being, then. So long as Soroka bounces back and doesn’t experience further discomfort, he’ll still be available for almost all of the 2019 campaign. And the club still has a few other exciting youngsters, led by Touki Toussaint, ready to step into the fifth spot in the rotation. Of course, it’s also not the most comforting thing to hear after all that Soroka went through last year.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, the injury could well hurt Soroka’s pocketbooks. Once healthy, he will likely be optioned, stopping the clock on his service time. He picked up 153 days last year, much of it on the disabled (now injured) list, which would set him up for future Super Two qualification unless he spends a decent portion of the upcoming campaign in the minors.

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