Quick Hits: Draft, Trade Timing, Gambling, Boras
With this year’s amateur draft less than three weeks away, the picture is starting to take shape — though it seems uncertainty largely still reigns. Those interested in seeing how the class is coming together have a few pieces worth looking into. Baseball America recently updated its board of the top 500 prospects. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs have a new mock draft to peruse. And MLB.com’s Jim Callis recently performed a similar exercise.
Here are a few other articles of general interest from around the baseball world:
- MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand chats with some unnamed execs around the game about the timing of this year’s trade activity. While there’s some indication that the feeling-out process has begun, there’s also no reason to believe that there’ll be a modification to the typically slow evolution of the market. (Last year’s memorably stretched to the end of the August non-revocable waiver deadline, which featured an unusual number of significant deals.) The reason is more or less the same as always: teams crave more information before they tweak the rosters that they compiled over the offseason.
- Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports offers his take on yesterday’s sports gambling decision from the U.S. Supreme Court, and it’s an interesting read. He sees baseball’s statistical bend as a boon for the sport in the new era of legalized gambling. There could certainly be a wide variety of broader implications, as Passan explores. For now, they exist mostly as interesting but entirely hypothetical possibilities, the development of which will be impacted by a wide variety of factors — most notably, a big pile of money up for grabs.
- Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times checks in with Scott Boras after the winter of free-agent discontent. The super-agent downplayed the public squabbling between him and league officials and expressed general satisfaction with the way turned out for several of his high-profile clients. He also generally expressed a lack of concern that next winter’s market would work out just fine for players. This isn’t the combative and colorful version of Boras we’ve all come to know and love (or love to hate), but it’s notable in and of itself that he adopted a deliberative stance. He also made a shrewd note that’s worth bearing in mind for the future, telling Shaikin: “If you want to take that analytic principle into collective bargaining — that I’m not going to pay you for past performance — then you’re going to have to pay a truer value for the current performance.”
Padres Place Joey Lucchesi On 10-Day DL
The Padres have placed young lefty Joey Lucchesi on the 10-day DL, per a club announcement. He’ll be replaced by infielder Carlos Asuaje, who had just been optioned down.
A hip strain is the official diagnosis for Lucchesi, who has been a revelation as a rookie. In his nine starts, he has reeled off 47 1/3 innings of 3.23 ERA ball with 9.1 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. It is not known how long he’ll miss, but the 24-year-old will surely be handled with care by the Friars.
There’s no reason at present to believe that Lucchesi is dealing with a significant problem. If anything, early indications are that it’s not a major issue, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell wrote after Lucchesi threw five frames last night.
Erring on the side of caution is generally good policy with respect to young hurlers, particularly in the midst of a season that is exceedingly unlikely to result in a postseason berth. In this case, too, Lucchesi may be best off with at least some loose limitations on his workload. Last year, he threw 139 frames, adding nearly one hundred frames to his 2016 tally and representing a big step up from his first year as a professional.
AL Central Notes: Duffy, Lopez, Indians
Danny Duffy takes full accountability for his abysmal start to the year, Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes, but the Royals lefty is still searching for answers after struggling to a 6.51 ERA in 47 innings. As Mellinger explores in an excellent piece, Duffy’s very awareness of the need to improve and dedication to doing so may well be playing into his on-field difficulties. “[W]hen you don’t run from the truth, you’re going to be able to sleep at night,” says Duffy. “And I’m sleeping just fine. When I’m awake, that’s when I’m stressing. So I try to be truthful, man. I try to be honest.” A productive Duffy, whose contract includes $46MM in guaranteed money over the next three years, may well have been a hotly pursued trade piece this summer. Instead, the Royals will likely need to get him on track before considering any potential trade scenarios.
Here’s more from the American League’s central division:
- The White Sox are going through some predictable growing pains, but as Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes, righty Reynaldo Lopez has certainly been effective to this point. Lopez carries a 2.44 ERA through 44 1/3 innings, which is a nice development for a 24-year-old hurler who has long shown promise — but who has also faced questions as to whether he’d ultimately end up in a bullpen role. Of course, it’s worth withholding judgment on his long-term outlook. While Lopez may well end up being the South Siders’ All-Star representative, his good results have not been supported by the underlying numbers. Lopez has been exceedingly fortunate on batted balls (.372 xwOBA vs. .280 wOBA; .202 BABIP) and has not excelled in terms of strikeouts (6.3 K/9), walks (3.9 BB/9), home runs (1.22 HR/9) or groundballs (30.0%). Perhaps he’ll find a way to continue capitalizing on his talent, but it seems Lopez will need to make adjustments to maintain anything approaching his current output.
- While the Indians are continuing to lead an uninspiring AL Central division, that doesn’t mean it has been all sunbeams in Cleveland. The organization surely anticipated more than a .500 start through forty games after topping one hundred wins in 2017. But the results largely reflect what has to this point been a fairly middling performance from the roster overall. Zack Meisel of The Athletic (subscription link) takes a look at the big picture, diagnosing the bullpen as one key overarching concern. It’s tough to disagree with that fact given the putrid overall performance from the Indians’ relief unit to date. Adding some arms seems a mid-season given, but Meisel also notes that the club has a similar issue on the position-player side, with a group of top-end stars that has not been supported to this point by the reserves. All said, there seem to be quite a few areas ripe for improvement over the summer, which is obviously not preferable but does leave the club with many potential avenues to seek value.
A.J. Pollock Diagnosed With Sprained Thumb
Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock departed last night’s game following an ugly-looking arm injury suffered on a diving attempt at a catch. The preliminary diagnosis is a sprain of his left thumb, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.
While that sounds promising at first glance, it’s probably worth waiting to breathe a sigh of relief. Pollock still must undergo further examination, including a trip to a hand specialist today. And as Piecoro notes, the fact that this is initially being termed a sprain indicates the major concern may be with ligaments — potentially making this a fairly serious injury that could require a significant absence.
At this point, we just don’t know and the team likely does not either. As manager Torey Lovullo said late last night when asked about the possibility of losing the star center fielder, “I don’t even want to get there until we know what’s going on tomorrow.”
It has already been a rough go of late for the D-Backs, who have now dropped six straight games. Despite the skid, the Snakes are still pacing the NL West. But their ability to stay there will be affected greatly by Pollock’s ultimate absence.
To this point, Pollock has clearly been the Diamondbacks’ best player. He has played an excellent center field, run the bases well, and delivered an outstanding .293/.349/.620 output at the plate — with 11 homers and nine steals — to this point of the season. There’s no realistic hope of replacing that kind of productivity.
The injury is certainly also concerning from Pollock’s perspective. As I wrote recently, his big output had put him on track to secure a major payday in free agency. But health has long been the major concern with the 30-year-old. While this latest injury was the result of hard play rather than any evident susceptibility, it adds to a list of other past ailments and — if it turns out to be serious — will also reduce Pollock’s ability to show he’s in top form over a full season.
Injury Notes: Duda, Santana, Sano, LeMahieu, Hanson
Here are the latest health updates from around the game:
- Royals first baseman Lucas Duda is heading to the DL as well, the team announced, owing to a bout of plantar fasciitis. It seems the expectation is that the left-handed-hitting slugger won’t miss too terribly long, with skipper Ned Yost saying it may be anywhere from just under a week to three weeks before he’ll be back. (Via Rustin Dodd of The Athletic, on Twitter.) Duda is still sitting under league average with his output on the year, though he has surged a bit of late. If he can get back to health and start hitting closer to his career mean, Duda could still be a trade piece for K.C. this summer. Former first-round pick Hunter Dozier will come up to take the open roster spot.
- The Twins provided updates on a pair of key rehabbing players, as conveyed by Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (Twitter links). Righty Ervin Santana has finally thrown his first live batting practice session and may be nearing a start in extended spring. He has been coming along slowly from finger surgery and will still need to fully ramp up and complete a rehab assignment before he’s ready for the majors. Meanwhile, third baseman Miguel Sano is still not close to being activated from a hamstring strain. Indications are he’ll at least be out for another week.
- Not long after returning from a brief DL stint, Rockies second baseman DJ LeMahieu is going back on the shelf, this time with a left thumb sprain. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out, but there’s also no reason to suspect it’ll be a lengthy absence. The 29-year-old, a pending free agent, has played well thus far, slashing a sturdy .279/.350/.457 with five home runs in his 143 plate appearances. Utilityman Pat Valaika takes the open roster spot.
- Meanwhile, the Giants have sent infielder Alen Hanson onto the 10-day DL with a hamstring strain while bringing back Austin Slater, who may need to see a bit of time in the infield. That’s a tough break for Hanson, a minor-league signee who had impressed in his 14 games of action after previously failing to gain traction in the majors. He has produced at a healthy .298/.346/.638 clip in 52 trips to the plate. As for Slater, the 25-year-old has demolished Triple-A pitching thus far, with a .386/.456/.670 batting line in 103 plate appearances. He has spent most of his career in the outfield, but does have a bit of experience under his belt at second base.
AL East Notes: Osuna, Morales, Eovaldi, Wright, Orioles
Major League Baseball announced today that Blue Jays pitcher Roberto Osuna will remain on administrative leave through at least May 21st. He was first placed on leave by the commissioner’s office on May 8th, pursuant to the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy, after it emerged that he had been arrested and charged with domestic assault. At this point, it remains unknown when and how Osuna’s legal and disciplinary situations will be resolved.
Here’s more from the AL East:
- The Blue Jays may soon face a tough call on DH Kendrys Morales, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. The veteran switch-hitter is off to an abysmal start, though GM Ross Atkins says that the organization still has some grounds for optimism. While there isn’t a clear roster crunch at present, that could change. If Morales can’t generate some positive momentum, Nicholson-Smith suggests, the Toronto front office will increasingly find it difficult to keep the bat-only player on the roster.
- It seems that Rays righty Nathan Eovaldi is facing yet another hurdle. Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, via Twitter, the long-rehabbing starter won’t make it back as hoped later this month. While his elbow isn’t the culprit this time, thankfully, Eovaldi will first need to recover from a right rib muscle strain. The prognosis is not terribly clear at the moment, so it could yet be that this’ll be more of a speed bump than a roadblock, but it’s certainly disappointing to hear that Eovaldi has again been dealt with tough luck on the cusp of a return to the majors.
- Red Sox right-hander Steven Wright has been activated for the first time this year, the club announced. To create a roster spot, fellow righty Hector Velazquez is going onto the 10-day DL with a lower back strain. Wright served a 15-game suspension after opening the year on the shelf while recovering from knee surgery. He’ll likely work as a long man out of the Boston bullpen upon arrival, though he’s also likely the first man up if a rotation need arises.
- Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com checks in on where things stand for the Orioles roster. Despite a recent uptick in play, argues Connolly, the team must still be preparing to blow things up this summer. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams also argued recently, it’s hard to imagine a path back to contention in 2018 for the O’s. Meanwhile, Connolly wonders just why the Orioles placed a claim on slugging, reputedly poor-fielding corner man Renato Nunez. He suggests the org may simply hope to pass him through waivers once a 40-man spot is needed.
Andrew Friedman Discusses Dodgers’ Poor Start
While the Dodgers had hoped to put an ugly April behind them, they’ve now lost seven of eight games and sit just a game up on the cellar-dwelling Padres. Clearly, it’s not too late for the club to get back into the division race; they sit eight back of the Diamondbacks, a large but hardly insurmountable gap at this stage of the year. But the questions and the pressures are only increasing in Los Angeles, where fans had hoped for a strong follow-up to a 2017 campaign that ended agonizingly close to a long-awaited World Series win.
President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman chatted with Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times about the rough start and what he intends to do about it. It’s well worth a full read, but these are a few of the highlights:
- Manager Dave Roberts does not appear to be at risk of losing his job, with Friedman saying that “[t]here is no doubt in my mind that [Roberts] is the right guy to lead this team going forward.” At the same time, Friedman did not make any express guarantees of job safety for Roberts, who can be retained via club option in 2019. More broadly, Friedman said the preference is to focus on improving rather than assigning blame for a middling run to date. But “if we had to assign blame at this point,” he added, “it should be me who is taking that, and not [Roberts].”
- As Shaikin explains, the Dodgers’ lineup and starting rotation have actually produced at decent rates. While more might have been expected from those units, it’s a fairly short sample and injuries (to Justin Turner and Corey Seager, in particular) have certainly played a role. As Shaikin rightly notes, though, the bullpen has been a major problem for Los Angeles. Friedman acknowledges that issue, and generally expressed ample openness to seeking mid-season upgrades. But significant trades, just aren’t realistic at this point, he says, so the organization’s collective attention is on internal improvement. “When you’re evaluating things in May, the outside is not really a viable option,” says Friedman. “So all of your focus is on helping your own guys to perform up to their ability.”
- Of course, the relief unit lost some key pieces (most notably, Brandon Morrow) over the winter, with the Dodgers choosing to prioritize financial efficiency in finding replacements — due in no small part, it seemed, to the fact that the club preferred to stay beneath the luxury tax threshold. Shaikin pressed Friedman on the question whether the luxury line would continue to constrain the organization’s options as they weigh deadline maneuvers. The Dodgers’ top baseball executive did not commit to a willingness to go past the line, but did say that the competitive balance tax situation will generally be treated “just like trading prospects,” in that the club will need to “optimize the current year while putting [itself] in a position to sustain it.” It certainly sounds, then, as if the club will not be drawing any firm lines in the sand when it comes to taking on salary (versus parting with other resources) in mid-season trade talks.
Keynan Middleton Headed To DL With UCL Damage
Angels reliever Keynan Middleton is going on the 10-day DL after being diagnosed with damage to his ulnar collateral ligament, as MLB.com’s Maria Guardado was among those to report (Twitter links). He is headed for a second opinion.
Clearly, that’s unwelcome news for the 24-year-old righty. It’s not known at this point just how severe the damage is; it seems team and player are looking to gather information before deciding upon a course of treatment. In the most serious cases, of course, UCL injuries require extensive surgery (most famously, the Tommy John procedure) that comes with upwards of a year of rehab.
As things stand, then, we simply don’t know how long Middleton will be sidelined. Given that there’s a problem with the ligament, though, even the most optimistic scenario will involve a fairly lengthy DL stint. And the risk of the rest-and-rehab — which is sometimes accompanied by stem cell and/or platelet-rich plasma treatment — is that the player may end up delaying his procedure and thus also his ultimate point of return.
Given the stakes, the Angels and Middleton will understandably weigh the decision carefully. He had become firmly ensconced in the team’s bullpen hierarchy, even locking up six saves this year for the Halos. Even losing a few months of work from Middleton will increase the pressure on other arms in the Los Angeles pen.
Today’s news comes after Middleton had turned in 17 2/3 innings of 2.04 ERA pitching to open the season. Of course, there were already some signs of concern. Middleton was doling out a few too many free passes (4.6 per nine) and had seen his swinging-strike rate plummet from an eye-opening 16.6% in 2017 down to 9.5% to begin the current year.
While the Angels are no doubt aware that the young hurler still has a ways to go to prove he’s a reliable late-inning force, the team surely would have preferred to continue giving him that opportunity. Now, the Halos’ roster’s already-unimposing high-leverage mix appears all the more in need of buttressing at the trade deadline. With the club off to a strong start but facing a tough year-long fight for the postseason, it would not be surprising at all to see GM Billy Eppler focus on adding arms this summer.
East Notes: Hess, Stroman, Mets, Pedroia, Mujica
After placing Chris Tillman on the DL earlier today, the Orioles have announced that they’ll promote David Hess to take the open spot in the rotation, as Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun was among those to report on Twitter. The 24-year-old righty entered the year as a notable, if not particularly heralded prospect. He has impressed thus far in 2018 after being added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft last fall. Through 29 2/3 innings over six starts, Hess owns a 2.12 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. It remains to be seen how long a run he’ll get in the majors, but it seems there’ll be opportunity available if he throws well.
Here are some more notes from the eastern divisions, focusing on some health situations of note:
- Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman discussed his DL placement with the media today, with MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm providing the story. Stroman acknowledged that the placement was made with consideration not just of his physical wellness, but his mental state. “Just a collective decision between me and the staff, to take a step back, do what I need to do for my shoulder, get my emotions and everything in sync, to get back to myself,” Stroman said. It seems he’ll mostly be looking to get a relatively brief respite before rejoining the staff.
- The Mets provided a variety of health updates today to reporters, including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. Infielder T.J. Rivera is not yet ready for rehab assignments but could make it back from Tommy John surgery by July. Backstop Kevin Plawecki is closer, as he’s preparing to begin rehabbing in earnest in hopes of returning from a fractured hand by the end of the month. As Tim Britton of The Athletic tweets, though, reliever Anthony Swarzak is still a little ways off. His injured oblique is still not healed enough to allow him to take the mound. Meanwhile, the club has placed reliever Hansel Robles on the 10-day DL with a sprained knee, with lefty Buddy Baumann taking his place on the active roster.
- Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia is hoping to begin a rehab assignment early next week, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. He has been building back to full strength following offseason knee surgery. While the Sox have managed just fine without the veteran star, a return from Pedroia will certainly be most welcome, as fill-in Eduardo Nunez has struggled thus far at the plate.
- Rays righty Jose Mujica has been cleared of any significant arm issues, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. The minor-league hurler will need about a month of rest after being diagnosed with a forearm strain. So long as he can get back to health, though, he could represent a much-needed option later in the year.
Twins Prospect Wander Javier Out For Season
Twins shortstop prospect Wander Javier will undergo shoulder surgery and miss the rest of the 2018 season, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. The 19-year-old had received a top-100 nod from Baseball America entering the year.
Javier is scheduled for a procedure to repair a tear to his left labrum, per the report. With six-to-nine month anticipated rehab timeline, it seems reasonable to anticipate that he could be ready to participate in Spring Training next year.
Obviously, it’s disappointing news for the Minnesota organization, though the news does not figure to impact the team’s near-term plans. Javier, a big-bonus international signee back in 2015, has yet to play above the Rookie ball level.
The major impact, then, is on Javier’s development timeline. He impressed in 180 Appalachian League plate appearances last year, slashing .299/.383/.471 with four home runs and four steals. While there are some things to iron out — 49 strikeouts last year, for example — the future is bright for the young Dominican. He had yet to play this year while trying to work through the shoulder issue without going under the knife.
Ultimately, the Twins will still remain plenty confident in the middle-infield depth in their system. Top prospect Royce Lewis and the more advanced Nick Gordon are plenty exciting in their own right, and Javier has plenty of time still to tap into his lofty upside.