Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves
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After a disappointing season ended in front office calamity, the Braves will attempt to take the next step in their rebuilding process under new baseball leadership.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Freddie Freeman, 1B: $86MM through 2021
- Matt Kemp, OF: $36MM through 2019 (Dodgers, via Padres, paying $7MM of Kemp’s remaining obligations)
- Ender Inciarte, OF: $28.525MM through 2022 (including buyout on 2022 club option)
- Julio Teheran, SP: $20MM through 2019 (including buyout on 2020 club option)
- Nick Markakis, OF: $10.5MM through 2018
- Jim Johnson, RP: $4.5MM through 2018
- Tyler Flowers, C: $4MM through 2018 (exercised club option)
- Kurt Suzuki, C: $3.5MM through 2018
- Rex Brothers, RP: split contract of unknown value
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Matt Adams (5.033) – $4.6MM
- Arodys Vizcaino (4.168) – $3.7MM
- Danny Santana (3.111) – $1.1MM
- Sam Freeman (3.066) – $1.2MM
- Jace Peterson (3.003) – $1.1MM
- Daniel Winkler (3.000) – $800K
- Mike Foltynewicz (2.163) – $2.7MM
- Non-tender candidates: Adams, Santana, Peterson
Free Agents
- R.A. Dickey (declined club option), Jason Motte
[Atlanta Braves Depth Chart | Atlanta Braves Payroll Outlook]
John Hart and John Coppolella provided a wild ride for the Braves’ faithful, engineering a variety of bold moves and stocking the organization with young talent. But rules violations led to the departures of both, along with league discipline that stripped the Braves of some of their most interesting younger prospects and constrained the organization’s ability to add new international talent in the coming seasons.
Former Blue Jays GM and Dodgers executive Alex Anthopoulos was brought in as an experienced hand who can get the organization back on track. But that doesn’t mean we should anticipate a quiet offseason. Though the new top baseball decisionmaker has suggested he’s not looking for a general shake-up, he swung quite a few blockbusters in Toronto and will surely have his own ideas about the roster he’s inheriting.
What remains unclear is just how aggressive the organization will be in seeking to put a winner on the field in 2018. The club enters the offseason with just over $90MM in likely commitments, including anticipated arbitration payouts. Depending upon how high payroll will rise, there could be some room for relatively significant additions. Alternatively, the club might seek to condense some of its upper-level young talent in an effort to land quality, controllable assets to the MLB roster. Entering the second year at SunTrust Park on the heels of the rules scandal, it’s possible to imagine some effort to push into contention. On the other hand, the hit to the team’s future interests may counsel in favor of some caution.
In his first acts in office, Anthopoulos took some low-cost opportunities to shore up the team’s bullpen — a notable area of need. But the pitchers he grabbed from his former organization — Grant Dayton and Josh Ravin — are just the kind of risky maneuvers we might have seen from his predecessors. The former will miss most or all of 2018 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery while the latter has never held down a steady MLB job. But both have big-time swing-and-miss upside.
Lining up a strong and reliable relief corps, though, may well require more. There’s talent on hand, to be sure. Pitchers such as Arodys Vizcaino, Jose Ramirez, A.J. Minter, Mauricio Cabrera, Daniel Winkler, Luke Jackson, Rex Brothers, Jacob Lindgren, and Jesse Biddle have had some MLB success and/or shown impressive arsenals, not unlike Dayton and Ravin. But none of these pitchers has yet strung together multiple, successful MLB campaigns and several come with health concerns. Veterans Jim Johnson and Sam Freeman are in the picture, too, but there’s room here for further tinkering.
It’s not an altogether different picture in the rotation, which no longer includes three veteran arms — R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon, and Jaime Garcia — that opened with the club last year. Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz are the two senior members of the staff at present; both will be looking to improve after producing middling results in 2017. They could be joined by a trio young lefties who are fresh off of their MLB debuts. Sean Newcomb still needs to hone his command to reach his ceiling, but turned in 100 solid frames. Luiz Gohara showed off his talent in five starts, posting 9.5 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 after mostly dominating in his first taste of the upper minors in an eventful campaign. And Max Fried also got a brief run in the bigs, though his overall effort on the year suggests some further seasoning may be in order.
Otherwise, the Braves have some back-end right-handed arms available in Lucas Sims, Aaron Blair, and Matt Wisler, all of whom have struggled in their early MLB time. More exciting arms — Mike Soroka and Kolby Allard — aren’t far off after turning in strong years at Double-A, but don’t currently hold 40-man roster spots.
With that wide array of options, the Braves could actually focus on paring back some excess depth over the offseason and into the camp, though there’s also some flexibility since all of those candidates can also still be optioned. Competing the open spots between this lengthy list of young pitchers is a reasonable approach. Some may also conceivably turn into bullpen candidates instead.
At the same time, the Braves will need to strongly consider pursuing upgrades if they truly hope to put a legitimate contender on the field for the coming season. There’s some merit to considering a solid veteran type to hold down some innings at the back of the rotation, though the team passed up on a chance to retain Dickey for the purpose (though he may have been headed for retirement anyway) and it is also arguable that a more significant addition would be warranted. It’s possible to imagine the Braves dabbling in the upper levels of the free agent market, perhaps going after a hurler such as Alex Cobb or finally landing the unicorn (top-end controllable starter) that the prior administration seemingly pursued for years. There’s a long slate of possibilities at a lower price point, of course, and the Braves might also conceivably take some lower-priced risks, with righty Chris Tillman representing the most intriguing bounceback arm available to the high bidder.
There’s less to be done on the position-player side, though that shouldn’t be read as a suggestion that there isn’t any room for improvement. In addition to top star Freddie Freeman at first, the club is set up the middle with Ender Inciarte in center; Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, and Johan Camargo in the middle infield; and Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki behind the plate. That’s far from the best group of core position player talent in baseball, particularly given that the young infielders still are not yet fully established and the catchers are only short-term assets, but it gives the organization a base to work from this winter.
The top priority, in all likelihood, will be improving at third base. Adonis Garcia has had stretches of competence, but he’s a 32-year-old player with a .267/.300/.414 slash through 944 MLB plate appearances. Former top pick Rio Ruiz may ultimately deserve a longer look, but he hit just .193/.283/.307 in his 173 trips to the plate at the game’s highest level last year and has not exactly dominated the opposition over two full seasons at Triple-A. Around this time last year, Coppolella gave some reason to believe Travis Demeritte might be the future at the hot corner, but he took a step back in 2017 and was not protected from the Rule 5 draft. (Dustin Peterson was also left open to being claimed in the draft.) The current prospect of note is Austin Riley, who knocked around Double-A pitching after a tepid run at the High-A level. But he’s still just twenty years of age and is far from a sure thing.
While the Braves could conceivably allow Camargo to play at third while utilizing Jace Peterson as a utility infielder, that would be an awfully risky way of constructing the infield for an organization that intends to improve its on-field product. Camargo turned heads last year, but benefited from a .364 BABIP and walked at only a 4.7% clip. Swanson struggled badly after an impressive MLB debut in 2016. That also serves as a reminder not to forget that Albies is still just twenty years old and may yet have his own growing pains to experience. The better bet would be to bring in a veteran to shore things up at the hot corner for at least a season or two. MLBTR guessed that the Braves could land top free agent Mike Moustakas, who lacks an obvious landing spot, but that was and remains a speculative connection. The Braves could look at other established players on shorter-term deals, potentially including free agents ranging from Todd Frazier to Yunel Escobar or potential trade targets that could include Yangervis Solarte and Nick Castellanos. At this point, frankly, it’s hard to guess what kind of direction the pursuit might take odds are, though, that there’ll be a healthy dose of opportunism guiding the effort.
The corner outfield is another area of some intrigue (though others could open based upon other moves). Atlanta could rely again upon veterans Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis while supplementing them with a reserve or two, possibly including Lane Adams, who showed well in his first real MLB time in 2017. But the organization would probably rather upgrade over those two — neither of whom profiles as a viable everyday player at this stage of their careers — and begin preparing for a future with younger options. Shedding some salary would be preferable, too. Markakis would make for a useful platoon or reserve outfielder for a contender, though he could also remain an appealing piece in Atlanta, while Kemp could fit on an American League team in search of pop. But dealing either will mean keeping some salary, particularly for the latter.
There are some similarities between the corner outfield and the third-base situations, with one major difference. Unlike at the hot corner, there is a clear heir apparent on hand to step into an outfield spot. Top prospect Ronald Acuna is likely ready for a big league test after blowing through the minors in 2017, though the team will in all probability at least start him in the minors to capture an additional season of club control. While pursuing other pieces in the corner outfield could still make sense, particularly if a truly appealing opportunity presents itself, one spot will undoubtedly be reserved for Acuna — who could be an everyday presence for the majority of 2018 and years beyond.
That leaves one interesting, unaddressed piece of the Braves’ offseason puzzle: Matt Adams. The first baseman was a sensation upon arriving in a midseason swap, but cooled down the stretch and also missed time with injury. The Braves dabbled with positional changes to accommodate his bat in the lineup — trying Freeman at third and Adams in left — but those seem likely to be left in the rearview mirror. Now, Adams looks to be an ill-fitting piece for a team whose best player is a young, left-handed-hitting first baseman. While it’s conceivable that he’d draw interest in trade, the 29-year-old is best limited to facing right-handed pitching and occupying first base or DH. Defensively limited, good-but-not-great hitters aren’t in short supply these days, so it’s not likely that the Atlanta organization will reap a big return — and it’s possible the team will simply non-tender Adams instead.
Ultimately, despite the loss of some notable prospect capital, Anthopoulos will have quite a few pieces and a bit of payroll flexibility to work with. The wild cards here are upper management’s views on the contention timeline and the new front office’s feelings about the club’s young talent. There’s a conceivable world where the Braves end up largely maintaining their current roster for the 2018 season, with a few tweaks on the margins. There’s another where Atlanta engages in quite a bit more swapping and acquiring of assets, reflecting both Anthopoulos’s preferences and perhaps also a determination that it’s time to move toward competition. And there’s a wide gray area in between, with plenty of stopping points along the way. What was always going to be a fascinating offseason to watch is all the more interesting after the curveball that kicked it off.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez Reportedly Dies In Traffic Accident
Former Phillies right-hander Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez has passed away after being involved in a traffic accident in Havana, according to reports from Francys Romero of CiberCuba.com and Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald. The Phillies organization has confirmed the loss of Gonzalez, who was just 34 years of age.
Gonzalez was one of several accomplished Cuban players to sign significant contracts with major league organizations in recent years. Like many of his countrymen, he underwent a harrowing process to chase his dreams, ultimately joining the Phillies on a three-year contract.
Unfortunately, things did not go quite as hoped from an on-field perspective. Gonzalez, whose original $48MM contract value was quartered after a physical revealed health concerns, did briefly reach the majors. But he was not able to establish himself at the game’s highest level, due in part to those same arm problems.
Still, Gonzalez’s legacy is secure, as he is regarded as one of the best starting pitchers of his generation from his home nation. MLBTR extends its heartfelt condolences to his family and friends, including those in the baseball community.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/24/17
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- The Marlins have added outfielder J.B. Shuck on a minors pact, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. He’s among the incoming players who will compete for jobs in camp with an organization that is expected to make some big changes to its MLB roster. Shuck, 30, owns a lifetime .251/.299/.328 batting line through 1,090 career plate appearances at the game’s highest level. He failed to crack the bigs last year, though, spending the season instead at the Twins’ top affiliate. Shuck carried typically impressive plate discipline numbers (41 walks against 43 strikeouts) but hit just .259/.325/.368 with four home runs through 475 plate appearances.
Jorge Alfaro Changes Agents
Phillies catcher Jorge Alfaro recently changed agents, according to Robert Murray of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He will now be represented by ISE Baseball, which has a long list of other MLB clients.
Alfaro was seen as a significant prospect when he came over to Philadelphia as part of the Cole Hamels trade. He is still just 24 years of age and produced a strong .318/.360/.514 batting line in 114 MLB plate appearances last year.
That said, there are some questions facing the out-of-options receiver. He had struggled quite a bit earlier in the year at Triple-A and carried his poor plate discipline with him into the bigs. Alfaro rode an unsustainable .420 batting average on balls in play to produce the impressive slash line; meanwhile, he struck out 33 times while drawing just three free passes.
Though the Phillies likely still hope to take a shot on Alfaro, who comes with a fairly lofty prospect pedigree, the team also has another promising young receiver in Andrew Knapp. And Cameron Rupp has established himself as a useful MLB catcher, too, with a still-low salary increasing his appeal. It’ll be interesting to see how the Phils manage things over the winter and into camp.
Alfaro joins Lewis Brinson as young former Rangers prospects changing agents in recent days. Both are reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database.
Orioles To Acquire Konner Wade From Rockies For International Bonus Money
Nov. 24: The Rockies are receiving $500K worth of international bonus money from the Orioles in the trade, tweets Rich Dubroff of PressboxOnline.com.
As Matt Eddy of Baseball America points out, the O’s have now made eight trades sending away their international bonus pool funds since the signing period opened on July 2. The other 29 teams in the league have combined to make 13 trades involving international money in that time.
Nov. 21: The Orioles have added an arm in a swap with the Rockies, picking up righty Konner Wade in exchange for an unknown amount of international bonus pool money. Roch Kubatako of MASNSports.com first reported the prospective swap, with Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweeting that it has in fact gone though.
Wade, who’ll soon turn 26, repeated Double-A last year and showed strides against his 2016 performance. Over 109 1/3 innings, split nearly evenly between starting and relieving, Wade pitched to a 4.28 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.
It seems reasonable to expect that the O’s might ultimately consider Wade as a swingman option, though there’s also not much cause to believe he’ll factor in the team’s plans to open the 2018 season. Wade is eligible for the Rule 5 draft, and can no longer be protected, but that fact doesn’t seem to have dissuaded the Orioles from pursuing him — suggesting that the O’s don’t expect he’ll be taken.
Ross Atkins On Blue Jays’ Preliminary Offseason Efforts
Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins joined Ben Nicholson-Smith and Arden Zwelling on Sportsnet’s At the Letters podcast. There’s lots to listen to — including the Sportsnet team’s discussion of other subjects — but we’ll look at a few key takeaways here:
- The Jays are still committed to “putting a winning product on the field,” says Atkins, and that’ll be the driving force in the team’s decisions. (Indeed, he says he does not really anticipate a need for a full-blown rebuild in Toronto, though he would not rule out the possibility at times of requiring a “soft reset.”) Though there haven’t been any significant moves yet, that’s true of the entire remainder of the league as well. Atkins says he thinks the hold-up is likely at the top of the market but also results from a more general trend toward “more patience” in transactional decisionmaking. That could be a result of greater understanding between teams as to how they value players, he suggests, while noting there may also be a cyclical element to it. The tendency toward slow-developing action, after all, may itself create opportunities, Atkins notes.
- Toronto’s top priority remains “protect[ing] our middle infield,” says Atkins, who acknowledges the organization cannot simply rely upon Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki to handle regular duties. The ideal player — who, Atkins acknowledges, doesn’t likely exist — would not only add “depth and versatility” up the middle but would be a left-handed hitter that can also play in the outfield. More likely, he says, achieving all of these goals will involve multiple players. Atkins suggests a major outfield addition isn’t likely, explaining that he believes there’s “good depth” on hand but expressing a desire to find a way to “complement” the existing players “a little bit better.”
- Atkins also expanded a bit on his previously stated intentions to seek some pitching depth. The goal, he says, is “complementing our pitching in some significant way.” A back-end starter would be one possibility, per Atkins, but the team could also pursue an “elite reliever or some hybrid of the two.” It seems, then, that there’s some flexibility in the organization’s thinking on the pitching side of the ledger. More than chasing a single pitcher, perhaps, the front office will be looking for a high-value opportunity in this area.
Latest On Mets’ Search For Relievers
Though the free agent market has basically not yet budged, that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been movement behind the scenes. The Mets, for instance, are working hard to land multiple veteran relievers, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post.
There’s particular interest, Puma writes (expanding upon his prior report), in veteran righty Bryan Shaw. The durable veteran worked with new Mets manager Mickey Callaway, who was previously the Indians’ pitching coach. That fact clearly gives the organization some added insight into a hurler who has steadily produced excellent results.
Another pitcher with a recent connection to Callaway has also caught the Mets’ eye, according to the report. Sidearmer Joe Smith, who broke into the big leagues with the Mets, is closing in on his 34th birthday but has a track record of consistently good innings that’s similar to Shaw’s. Interestingly, Smith exhibited a big jump in his swinging-strike rate (11.4%) and strikeout rate (11.8 K/9, against just 1.7 BB/9) in 2017.
Two others on the Mets’ watch list, according to the report, are lefty Mike Minor and former Mets righty Addison Reed. Both of those pitchers are in the same general range of sub-elite relievers as Shaw, though MLBTR has predicted that each would be able to secure an extra guaranteed season on the open market. It seems unlikely that the Mets would be able to take on two significant relief contracts in one winter, so perhaps the hope is to land one of those three (or another, similar pitcher) while also picking up a slightly cheaper option such as Smith — who just missed inclusion on MLBTR’s top fifty list but could certainly be a candidate for a significant, multi-year deal.
It’ll be interesting to see whether the Mets are able to strike an early deal with one of these pitchers. There’s surely broad interest in all of them, and getting something done now — before more significant dominoes fall — could mean extending an offer that meets or approaches the typically steep initial asking price. To take but one example, the Cardinals landed Brett Cecil last winter by giving him a fourth year and a no-trade clause, neither of which were anticipated when the market opened.
Free Agent Notes: Jay, Shaw, Frazier
Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has identified his five best potential free agent values and, on the other hand, five most worrisome open-market landmines. Those posts are always interesting and are well worth a read as we wait for the market to get started in earnest.
Here are a few free agent notes on Thanksgiving Eve:
- The Mariners have engaged with free agent outfielder Jon Jay, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It “seems as though there’s some momentum there,” he adds, while also cautioning that there isn’t a deal in place at present. Jay checked in just inside the top forty players on MLBTR’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, with a predicted contract of two years and $14MM. Last year, he slashed .296/.374/.375 in 433 plate appearances with the Cubs while seeing time across the outfield. It seems unlikely that the left-handed hitter would command everyday time in Seattle, but might effectively step into the place in the rotation vacated by fellow free agent Jarrod Dyson.
- It’s possible the Mets will “move[] soon” to add to their bullpen, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. He suggests right-handed free agent Bryan Shaw as a name to watch for the organization, which has indicated an interest in beefing up its relief corps in part to reduce the workload on a rotation that has dealt with health issues of late. Shaw, 30, is about as steady and reliable as relievers come. He carries a 3.13 lifetime ERA through 446 1/3 innings across seven seasons. Shaw has handled at least 64 frames in each of the past five campaigns and has never finished a season with an earned run average over 3.52 (last year’s mark). He has also paced the American League in appearances in three separate seasons for the Indians, including each of the past two. MLBTR rated Shaw the 25th-best free agent available and predicted he’d score a $21MM guarantee over three years, though there’s likely some contractual upside beyond that mark.
- Though Todd Frazier has spent most of his career at third base and is still capable of manning the position, Feinsand reports that his representatives are pitching the veteran as an option at either infield corner. The 31-year-old Frazier turned in a solid 2017 campaign, split between the White Sox and Yankees, in which he posted a .213/.344/.428 batting line with 27 home runs. While that represented a big jump in the on-base department over his prior two seasons, Frazier also wasn’t quite as prolific in terms of power as he was after swatting 35 and 40 long balls in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Odds are that the team to sign Frazier will mostly value him as an option at third, particularly given that there are a fair number of other options available at first base, but the openness to both positions certainly won’t hurt his market outlook. Frazier landed ahead of the two players listed above on our free agent board, with a predicted three-year, $33MM contract placing him 17th on the list.
Orioles Acquire Jaycob Brugman
The Orioles have acquired outfielder Jaycob Brugman from the Athletics, per a club announcement. A player to be named or cash will go to Oakland in return.
Brugman, 25, was just designated for assignment by the A’s. He reached the majors for the first time last year, posting a .266/.346/.343 slash over 162 plate appearances. A generally solid on-base threat in the minors, the left-handed hitter has shown a bit of pop at times but has not always sustained it in the upper minors. Metrics did not view his work in center field favorably in 2017, though that was a short sample and scouting reports have generally suggested he’s a solid overall defender.
[RELATED: Orioles Depth Chart]
It’s certainly possible that the Orioles could allow Brugman to compete for a reserve/platoon outfield role in camp. He’ll play at or near the league minimum and might help the team save funds to dedicate to the rotation, which is clearly a more pressing area of need. The O’s have a variety of right-handed bats to work with already. Adam Jones and Trey Mancini are certainties to see regular time. Mark Trumbo will likely mostly function as a DH but could factor in the mix, while top prospect Austin Hays will receive consideration despite a tepid late-season debut. Reserve options on hand include switch-hitting Anthony Santander and right-handed-hitting Joey Rickard.
Padres Sign Colten Brewer, Designate Kyle Lloyd
The Padres have announced the signing of righty Colten Brewer to a MLB contract. To clear a 40-man spot, the organization designated fellow right-hander Kyle Lloyd for assignment.
Brewer, 25, was a minor-league free agent from the Yankees system. He struggled last year in his first attempt at Triple-A, coughing up 13 earned runs on 17 hits in ten innings. But Brewer compiled 41 1/3 innings of 1.31 ERA ball, with 9.4 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9, at the penultimate level of the minors.
As for Lloyd, he made his first MLB start in 2017 but otherwise spent the year in the upper minors. Through 147 1/3 innings, Lloyd worked to a 5.01 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.