AL Notes: Bautista, Desmond, Hultzen, Rondon
Star Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista is looking for a contract that will keep him in Toronto into his forties at a $30MM+ AAV, says Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links), but the 35-year-old is perhaps more willing to negotiate than some of his prior comments would suggest. Previous reports of Bautista’s contract requests have reflected just that kind of asking price while sometimes portraying his stance as being more firm. Jays GM Ross Atkins made clear recently that talks have been amicable, and Heyman adds that Bautista does hope to continue on in Toronto, so it appears there is still some hope that the sides can come together on a new contract for the pending free agent.
Here’s more from the American League:
- Twins righty Ricky Nolasco believes he should remain in the club’s rotation, agent Matt Sosnick tells Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (Twitter link). Referencing last year’s disappointing, injury-filled campaign, Sosnick suggests that his client “deserves to show the Twins what he looks like without trying to pitch through pain.” If Nolasco is pushed to the pen, says Sosnick, he’d approach the front office to “directly address his feelings of disappointment” and “ask the team about his other options.”
- The initial returns on Ian Desmond in left field appear to be positive for the Rangers, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. He also notes that the Giants had some interest in Desmond earlier in the winter as a super-utility option that would primarily play in the corner outfield, while the Orioles were involved later.
- Mariners lefty Danny Hultzen has suffered a setback in his bid to get back on the bump in a relief role, Shannon Drayer of Seattle’s 710AM ESPN was among those to report on Twitter. He’ll seemingly rest a while as he deals with shoulder stiffness, which hopefully will clear up on its own. It has been a long and difficult road for the 26-year-old, who has dealt with a series of arm issues since he was chosen second overall in the 2011 draft.
- Tigers reliever Bruce Rondon touched 100 mph yesterday and continues to show good form in camp, as Aaron McMann of MLive.com reports. After a disappointing end to the 2015 season, in which he was asked to leave the organization due to his lack of effort, Rondon has drawn positive reviews so far this spring. “He’s been good,” said skipper Brad Ausmus. “He’s done his work, he’s taken his non-pitching fundamentals seriously. He’s put in the effort and he’s looked strong so far on the mound.”
Skip Schumaker To Retire
Utilityman Skip Schumaker has departed Padres camp and appears to be wrapping up his MLB career, manager Andy Green told reporters including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). Though he’s not referring to the decision as a formal retirement, the veteran made clear he is moving on from his playing days to spend more time with his family.
Schumaker, 36, signed a minor league deal with San Diego a month ago, and had made a strong impression in camp on the field staff and younger players in the organization. Earlier in the winter, the Reds declined an option to put him onto the open market.
Schumaker has spent parts of eleven seasons in the majors. Most recently, he logged two disappointing seasons in Cincinnati, putting up a meager .238/.297/.322 batting line over 539 turns at bat.
He’ll be remembered most for his time with the Cardinals, where he was a strong contributor for eight campaigns. Schumaker was a regular contributor over 2008 through 2012, and ultimately provided St. Louis with over 2,500 plate appearances with a .288/.345/.377 slash line while splitting his time between second base and the outfield. Schumaker also played for one season with the Dodgers.
With the move, the Padres seem positioned to infuse some additional youth onto the active roster, as players such as Jose Pirela and Jabari Blash now have a clearer path to cracking the club. The competition is also thinned for other potential utility/bench/platoon options in camp, including Alexi Amarista, Brett Wallace, Adam Rosales, Nick Noonan, Jemile Weeks, and Alex Dickerson.
MLBTR wishes Schumaker the best in his future pursuits.
NL East Notes: Harvey, Fernandez, Hernandez, Braves, Rivero
While the Mets have made clear they don’t have any ongoing extension talks with their starters, and there isn’t a ton of pressure given their extended existing control, Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests that it may be worth at least exploring some chatter with Matt Harvey. Both the prized righty and his agent, Scott Boras, have suggested they’d be willing to engage in dialogue. Harvey, 26, is earning $4.33MM in his first of three seasons of arbitration eligibility. Sherman suggests that buying the remaining two arb years at about $29MM and adding three free agent seasons at $30MM a pop might be a fair valuation. While that seems to be a pretty fair suggestion for an outstanding 3+ starter, even in spite of his recent Tommy John surgery, from my perspective it’s somewhat difficult to imagine Harvey and Boras jumping at $119MM over five years. Such a deal would take Harvey though his age-32 season, meaning he’d hit the market at about the same stage as James Shields did last winter. It’s also far from clear that New York would be interested in such a scenario, of course, and Sherman makes very clear that any such concept is something of a longshot.
Here’s more from the NL East:
- Marlins ace Jose Fernandez, who is currently on track to hit the market with Harvey and a host of other premium players, is working on decreasing his reliance on his big fastball, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. The hope is that Fernandez will not only be able to improve — a scary proposition for opponents — but will reduce the load on his recently-repaired elbow. “We want to see him continue to pitch and continue to develop his weapons, where he’s not having to have the mentality that I’ve got to strike everybody out,” explained new manager Don Mattingly. “There’s nothing wrong with having guy hit a ground ball early in the count. … We think pitching that way keeps him healthy for a long time. It’s good for him. It’s good for us. It’s good for everybody.”
- Interestingly, the recent Tommy John research of MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum showed that the volume of what he classifies as “hard pitches” can have significant predictive power of future UCL replacements. Fernandez is the biggest name to land among the ten pitchers with the highest statistical TJ risk this year, per Woodrum’s research, which certainly suggests that thoughtful handling is warranted.
- Presumed Phillies closer David Hernandez is dealing with some “issues” with his right elbow, manager Pete Mackanin told reporters including Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The skipper himself didn’t seem entirely sure of what difficulties Hernandez was having. Meanwhile, the righty says he isn’t injured and is simply trying not to overburden himself having missed a lot of camp time in recent springs, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweets.
- In Braves camp, Cuban veteran Hector Olivera is still working to refine his hitting mechanics, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports, with the team seeing signs of improvement. The first impressions of youngster Ozzie Albies have been universally positive, O’Brien adds, who may be pushing up his big league timeline (although not all the way to Opening Day this year) with his performance. Meanwhile, Atlanta may seek to utilize Jace Peterson in more of a utility role this season, O’Brien adds.
- James Wagner of the Washington Post has an interesting feature on Nationals lefty Felipe Rivero, who came over as one of two minor leaguers to accompany Jose Lobaton in the deal that sent Nate Karns to the Rays. The fireballing southpaw has focused on strengthening his arm, and hopes that touching 100 mph last year will become a more common occurrence. While he says he “was thinking too much before” in a starter’s role, Rivero now feels settled in as a pen man. “Last season,” he said, “I’d imagine that, even if I was facing Barry Bonds, I’d get him out. Or when I threw against the league’s best batters, I didn’t think about the Mets or whoever. It’s me versus you. If I strike you out, I strike you out. If you make contact, you make contact. That’s it.” Wagner notes that Rivero could factor into the team’s future closer considerations, and the 24-year-old says he’d welcome such an opportunity.
Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies
Last summer’s Troy Tulowitzki deal seemed to promise the launch of a rebuilding effort, but the Rockies didn’t act as a seller this winter.
Major League Signings
- Gerardo Parra, OF: Three years, $27.5MM
- Jason Motte, RHP: Two years, $10MM
- Chad Qualls, RHP: Two years, $6MM
- Mark Reynolds, 1B: One year, $2.6MM
- Total spend: $46.1MM
Trades and Claims
- Acquired LHP Jake McGee, RHP German Marquez from Rays in exchange for OF Corey Dickerson, 3B Kevin Padlo
- Acquired LHP Wander Cabrera from Cubs in exchange for LHP Rex Brothers
- Acquired RHP Yency Almonte from White Sox in exchange for RHP Tommy Kahnle
- Claimed IF/C Tony Wolters off waivers from Indians
Extensions
- Adam Ottavino, RHP: Three years, $10.4MM
- DJ LeMahieu, 2B: Two years, $7.8MM (arb-only)
Notable Minor League Signings
- Yohan Flande (re-signed), Brock Huntzinger, Ryan Raburn, Brian Schlitter, Jackson Williams, Rafael Ynoa (re-signed)
Notable Losses
- John Axford (non-tendered), Rafael Betancourt (retired), Brothers, Brooks Brown, Dickerson, Christian Friedrich, Kahnle, Kyle Kendrick, Michael McKenry, Justin Morneau (declined option), Wilin Rosario (non-tendered)
Needs Addressed
GM Jeff Bridich and his front office surely feel they’ve significantly upgraded the team’s bullpen with a series of veteran additions. Jason Motte and Chad Qualls — whose signings were announced in tandem — were added to bolster the back of the pen from the right side, while Jake McGee delivers premium K:BB rates from the left. They are the key new arms that will help to gobble up relief frames, hopefully in a more productive fashion than many of the outgoing arms. While last year’s overall unit was probably more below-average than terrible, Colorado bid adieu this winter to John Axford (55 2/3 innings in 2015), Christian Friedrich (58 1/3), Rafael Betancourt (39 1/3), Tommy Kahnle (33 1/3), Brooks Brown (33), and LaTroy Hawkins (22 1/3 before his summer trade and eventual retirement).
With righty Justin Miller and lefty Boone Logan also providing late-inning options, there’s certainly hope for improvement — though it doesn’t help that the club just lost Jairo Diaz, a fairly interesting power arm, to Tommy John surgery. The question, though, is whether the price was right. Spending $16MM in total for two years apiece of Motte and Qualls isn’t a huge investment, at least for most of the league, but both come with real questions (including age) and neither deal seems to represent a screaming value. The real eye-opener was McGee, who is a legitimately excellent reliever but who comes with some injury questions and required the sacrifice of four years of Corey Dickerson and his rather impressive bat.
Of course, Dickerson was only shipped out after the Rox added Gerardo Parra. He unquestionably represents an upgrade defensively, though he doesn’t seem to possess near the offensive upside of the younger and cheaper player he’s replacing. The everyday outfield alignment — also including Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon, either one of whom could also have been traded — is entirely left-handed, which obviously creates some questions. But Colorado tendered Brandon Barnes and added Ryan Raburn on a minors deal, so there will be some options against opposing southpaws.
The only other significant major league acquisition was slugger Mark Reynolds, whose power will be a sight to behold in Coors Field even if his on-base percentage isn’t. He’s a low-cost add who figures to split time with the southpaw-swinging Ben Paulsen at first while contributing some pop off of the bench. That pairing will step in for Justin Morneau, who missed much of last season and received a $750K buyout when the club declined its end of a $9MM mutual option.
Questions Remaining
The questions in Colorado always seem to begin with the rotation, and at first glance it’s hard to fathom that the organization did not add any MLB-level starters over the winter. After all, last year’s revolving-door staff threw less innings than any other and produced at a level rivaled only by the Phillies.
To be fair, though, the Rockies figure to welcome back several pitchers who missed all or most of 2015, and as I posited at the offseason’s outset, it never made much sense to plow money into marginal free agent hurlers to convince them to come to Coors. Injury rehabbers Jordan Lyles and Tyler Chatwood figure to slot directly into a rotation led by last year’s two best performers: veteran lefty Jorge De La Rosa and surprisingly productive righty Chad Bettis. There’s ample uncertainty not only within, but also behind that foursome, but there are plenty of options floating around. Certainly, Colorado will hope that at least one of its advanced younger arms — among them, Jon Gray, Eddie Butler, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Anderson, and Tyler Matzek (if he can overcome his anxiety issues) — will make some real strides in 2016.
While the pen has been bolstered with the three aforementioned additions, that doesn’t mean it’s an unquestioned strength. There are plenty of arms in camp, but not many of the depth pieces have demonstrated MLB track records. Beyond the core five noted above, the most experienced pitchers on hand are righties Christian Bergman and Gonzalez Germen and southpaw Chris Rusin (who has mostly worked as a starter). Scott Oberg threw nearly sixty frames in the majors last year, though the results were not promising, and Miguel Castro — a big part of the Tulo deal — could force his way into the picture. Of course, the club will be looking forward to the return of quality righty Adam Ottavino, who signed a multi-year pact while rehabbing from a UCL replacement and could make his way back by the middle of the year.
The biggest single uncertainty in the Colorado organization, though, may be shortstop Jose Reyes, who is set to stand trial after being charged with assaulting his wife over the offseason. There’s a real prospect of jail time, if not also immigration consequences, not to mention the near-certainty of a significant suspension. (Yankees reliever Aroldis Chapman just took a thirty-game ban for an incident in which he was neither arrested nor charged.) Reyes has already been placed on administrative leave by commissioner Rob Manfred.
While the matter obviously carries far broader import than a typical player-contract issue, it has also created something of an odd situation from the team’s perspective. It’s an unquestioned loss on the field, as the 32-year-old had been a solid 3-WAR type of player in recent years before a tough 2015. Certainly, Reyes is much more established than potential replacements Cristhian Adames and Trevor Story, and if nothing else could in theory have generated some trade value. But from a broader perspective, it could well be that an extended absence will actually be a net positive for the Rockies. After all, he’s still owed $48MM — for the next two seasons and a buyout on his option — and the club will pocket any amount that he doesn’t earn due to his reprehensible alleged crimes.
Players like Adames and Story — and the above-mentioned Paulsen — are among the newer names that are likely to receive at least a look at some point in 2016. Behind the dish, relative newcomers like Dustin Garneau and Tom Murphy will fight for opportunities to back up (and, perhaps, eventually supplant) veteran Nick Hundley. But the real excitement on the young position player front — represented by outfielders David Dahl and Raimel Tapia, as well as third baseman Ryan McMahon — may be another year or so away.
Deal Of Note
Dealing away hitters for arms has long seemed an intriguing strategy for an organization that has had trouble not only in attracting free agent pitching, but in developing its own. (Indeed, Bridich discussed just that in his appearance on the MLBTR Podcast.) In that sense, then, the decision to sign Parra and ship out an incumbent option (Dickerson) for a pitcher (McGee) holds immediate interest.
Dickerson represents an intriguing but hardly flawless asset as a player. He’s a lightly-regarded fielder and was limited to just 65 games last season due to plantar fasciitis. There’s no question his value is lower than his batting line would suggest due to those considerations. That being said, the 26-year-old has done nothing but hit since cracking the bigs. Over 925 plate appearances, he owns a .299/.345/.534 slash with 39 home runs. While that obviously must be adjusted to account for Coors, it still works out to an excellent 125 OPS+ and 124 wRC+. The Rays will get four years of control over Dickerson, including one at the league minimum.
To be sure, the 29-year-old McGee is a top-tier reliever who has consistently turned in premium results. Since his first full season in 2012, he has provided 226 2/3 innings of 2.58 ERA pitching with an outstanding 11.4 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. Like Dickerson, he has some limitations — most notably, the simple fact that he works from the pen rather than the rotation. McGee is controlled for just two more seasons — not at super-cheap rates (beginning with $4.8MM this year) — and carries a somewhat risky Tommy John profile given his time missed last year (and other factors).
Ultimately, perhaps, the main concern with the deal isn’t so much the overall value proposition as it is the side of the equation taken by the Rockies. McGee is one of the best pen southpaws in the game, but it’s unclear how many winnable games he’ll be handed by an underwhelming Colorado starting staff. And while he could certainly be flipped for even greater value than the Rox gave up to get him — assuming the team will be willing to entertain a mid-year sell-off — a half season at Coors Field probably isn’t an optimal platform for a trade.
All that being said, the decision on Dickerson can’t be understood in isolation. In a perfect world, a Colorado bat-for-arms scenario would probably involve sending out a few relatively expensive years of a hitter in exchange for a controllable starter. The 30-year-old Gonzalez (who is owed $37MM for two more seasons) represented a plausible centerpiece in such a swap, particularly after he finished with a huge second half. His uneven recent performance and concerning injury history make him a fairly risky asset for a club like the Rockies, despite his evident ability, and there seemed to be a decent bit of plausible demand.
But the club decided to hold onto CarGo rather than pursuing a strategy like that taken with regard to Tulowitzki. Of course, adding a strong young rotation piece for the veteran may or may not have been an achievable goal this winter, but in many respects his non-trade is an even more notable event than was the move to get McGee for Dickerson.
Overview
It’s certainly still possible that Gonzalez could change hands at the trade deadline, and he will be a closely-watched name if Colorado isn’t keeping up in the NL West come July. (The same holds true of McGee.) CarGo’s health will go a long way toward determining the club’s competitiveness as well as his trade value, of course, but the overall complexion of this offseason could change if there’s a future fallback plan in place.
The overall situation poses a difficult and ongoing balancing act for Bridich, who is trying to build for the future while maintaining some near-term competitiveness with a bottom-third payroll. It is ultimately difficult to criticize the Rockies too harshly for trying to put some pieces around players like Gonzalez and rising superstar Nolan Arenado, who along with solid regulars such as D.J. LeMahieu and Charlie Blackmon make for a nice core on the position-player side of the equation. Of course, the same rationale could have led the organization to hold onto Tulowitzki, who was instead cashed in for prospects and cost savings. And it’s fair to wonder if Colorado would have been better off taking bolder action this winter in one direction or the other after parting with its homegrown star.
At the end of the day, the bottom line seems the same as ever: unless and until the organization can entrench some quality starters at the major league level — whether or not a fully-committed rebuild is undertaken to make that possible — it may continue to confront the same kinds of hard-to-win dilemmas with regard to its best players.
With all of this said, we’ll open up critique of the club’s offseason to readers via poll (link to poll for mobile app users)…
How Would You Grade the Rockies' Offseason?
-
D 38% (1,291)
-
C 32% (1,089)
-
F 21% (714)
-
B 8% (254)
-
A 1% (34)
Total votes: 3,382
Latest On Extension Talks Between Cubs, Jake Arrieta
MARCH 8, 7:46pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Cubs and Arrieta had discussions early in the winter, but the team wasn’t interested in making an offer greater than five total years (Twitter link). It’s not 100 percent clear whether that means five years including the upcoming campaign or five years on top of Arrieta’s $10.7MM salary for the coming season, but if talks were early enough in the winter, they likely predated that arbitration agreement, so it seems reasonable to infer that the Cubs were interested in locking up the 2016-20 seasons (two arb years and three free-agent seasons). Arrieta, Nightengale adds, was seeking “at least” seven years, which lines up with Heyman’s initial report.
3:00pm: President of baseball operations Theo Epstein says that the team doesn’t feel any pressure to reach a deal in the near term, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports in a series of tweets (1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6). He called the discussions thus far productive in “provid[ing] a foundation for something to get done down the road” and noted there’s “no hard deadline, but there are no active talks.”
10:14am: Arrieta confirmed to reporters that there have been talks. They “go back to last fall and winter,” sources tell Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com (via Twitter). The righty says that Chicago’s range of years didn’t line up with what he was looking for, as MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat reports (links to Twitter). “I want to stay here for six or seven years, and that’s it,” he said while emphasizing that he does hope to remain with the organization for the long haul.
Arrieta also suggested he’d “prefer to not have a lot of open dialogue about [an extension] during the season,” as Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune reports (video link). Talks haven’t been extensive, he said, in part because the front office “kind of know[s] the ballpark of where [a deal] needs to be.”
MARCH 7: The Cubs briefly explored a “mega extension” with ace righty Jake Arrieta, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (links to Twitter), but the sides wrapped up their discussions when it became apparent they would not see eye to eye on the length of a prospective new contract. The Scott Boras client was believed to be seeking a seven-year pact, per the report.
While that term of years was apparently a non-starter for Chicago, Heyman adds that the Cubs front office appears to be willing to re-open talks again in the future. Arrieta recently agreed to a $10.7MM deal to avoid arbitration for the coming season, and can be controlled for one additional campaign through the arb process before qualifying for free agency.
Arrieta turned 30 yesterday, so he doesn’t exactly have his youngest years left to sell. But he’s also turned into one of the game’s most dominant starters, as evidenced by his Cy Young award last year. Arrieta’s career revival in Chicago was already remarkable, but after that 2015 campaign he could be set up as a premium free agent after the 2017 season.
Last year, Arrieta spun 229 frames of 1.77 ERA pitching, racking up 9.3 K/9 against just 1.9 BB/9 with a 56.2% groundball rate. That remarkable run was good enough to edge out the Dodgers’ outstanding duo of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke to take home honors as the National League’s best hurler. Though he wasn’t quite as effective in his later postseason outings, Arrieta also spun a complete game shutout to lead the Cubs to a wild card play-in victory.
As things stand, a hypothetical seven-year contract would take Arrieta through at least his age-36 season (assuming a deal would have covered the season to come). We’ve seen very few lengthy extensions of pitchers with at least four years of service time, with Cole Hamels (six years, $144MM) and Kershaw (seven years, $215MM) looking like the most reasonable comparables. Of course, both of those pitchers were both younger and had accumulated an additional year of service at the time they reached their deals.
More recent market developments would certainly also come into play. We’ve seen pitchers like Max Scherzer (seven years, $210MM), David Price (seven years, $217MM), and Greinke (six years, $206.5MM) top the $200MM threshold in recent seasons, and Arrieta will no doubt hope to land in a similar range if he can maintain anything close to his current level of performance. Greinke, in particular, represents a notable data point, as he’s slightly older now than Arrieta will be when he qualifies for free agency — showing that somewhat older arms can still land massive deals.
Of course, committing to that kind of deal at this point, with two years of control still remaining, is quite a different proposition for a club. If nothing else, Arrieta would surely be forced to give a discount for his arb years and distance from the open market.
NL West Notes: D-Backs, Padres, Inciarte, Lincecum, Blash, Reyes
Diamondbacks executives Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that their winter wasn’t just about near-term contention. The club has also picked up some younger assets since the front office turned over, and was careful to protect its most prized younger assets — Jake Lamb, Brandon Drury, Archie Bradley — who La Russa deemed “too dear” to be dealt. That being said, there’s no question that the haul given up for Shelby Miller — along with other decisions to give up controllable talent to free up money and add other pieces — was about maximizing the club’s chances now, with several key players in their primes and Zack Greinke joining the fold. As Stewart puts it, “you trade the unknown for the known.”
- Interestingly, Stewart added that the Padres had “big interest” in center fielder Ender Inciarte before he was shipped to Atlanta in the Miller deal. But San Diego wasn’t willing to deal away Tyson Ross or Andrew Cashner to get him, according to the D-Backs GM. That’s certainly a bit surprising to hear in regard to Cashner, who — despite his established ceiling — is coming off of an uninspiring 2015 season and is destined for free agency after the season.
- The Padres have been “very active” in pursuing free agent righty Tim Lincecum, agent Rick Thurman said in an appearance on The Mighty 1090 (via Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Teams are waiting for the former Cy Young winner to put on a showcase, which Thurman now says will take place within the next two weeks. He explains that Lincecum preferred to work his way back to form on his own before signing, with the plan being to “build[] up his arm strength so that when he actually goes and does a showcase he’s going to be game-ready.”
- Meanwhile, Lin has an interesting piece on Padres hopeful Jabari Blash, who says he’s come a long way since he was a laid back teenager in his native U.S. Virgin Islands. The towering 26-year-old is still raw, of course, which is why he was available in the Rule 5 draft. San Diego will give him every opportunity to make good on his talent and earn a spot this spring, writes Lin.
- Commissioner Rob Manfred says that he’ll be prepared to move quickly on disciplining Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes once his legal proceedings are completed, Nick Groke of the Denver Post reports. Manfred explained that he doesn’t rush a decision, only to learn something new thereafter. “My expectation is, once that process plays out, we’ll be in position to act quickly,” he said. “We’ll have access to all the facts.”
Carter Capps To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
High-powered Marlins reliever Carter Capps will undergo Tommy John surgery today, the club has announced. The 25-year-old right-hander will have his UCL replaced by surgeon James Andrews.
Both team and player had been holding out hope for a better outcome from yesterday’s visit with Andrews. It would appear that the famed elbow repairman advised in favor of the procedure, which will knock Capps out for the entirety of the 2016 season and — depending upon his recovery timeline — a piece of 2017 as well.
The news is enormously disappointing for all involved. It’s hard to overstate just how good Capps was last year — when he was healthy — and Miami surely had visions of him forming a high-quality 1-2 punch with A.J. Ramos. Indeed, there was some talk of sliding Capps into the closer role, in part to help manage his usage but also in reflection of the fact that he led all of baseball with a 0.87 SIERA on the strength of an absurd strikeout-to-walk ratio (16.8 K/9 vs. 2.0 BB/9).
It’s perhaps even more disappointing for Capps himself, who had only just reached arbitration eligibility. Despite his dominance last year, his relatively low innings count in 2015 and underwhelming prior results held him to a $988K salary. Another big season — especially if utilized in the 9th — would have set Capps up for a major raise.
Instead, he’ll enter next winter with expectations of receiving a repeat of his current-year earnings. The Marlins will surely feel that price is worth the risk, and will also control Capps for a final arb-eligible season in 2018 before he qualifies for the open market.
It remains to be seen what Miami will do to address this loss. Surely, a replacement that would match Capps in quality won’t be available (at least, for anything less than an exorbitant rate). The club still has plenty of big fastballs in the pen, but will likely be looking to add depth. Whether or not an immediate move is explored, there ought to be plenty of options as camp battles are won and lost late in the spring.
It’s worth noting that Capps landed as the tenth most likely Tommy John patient in all of baseball in the recent statistical study undertaken by MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum. As Woodrum has explained in that post and in his appearance on last week’s MLBTR Podcast, the bottom-line predictive value of his work is relatively low (although still surprisingly powerful), so the placement of Capps and other higher-risk arms shouldn’t be viewed as an expectation of surgery so much as an indication that such pitchers may be worthy of increased attention and caution by their respective teams.
Astros, A.J. Hinch Have Agreed To “Revised” Contract
The Astros reached agreement with manager A.J. Hinch on a “revised” contract at some point earlier in the offseason, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. His new agreement is said to increase his earnings and “put[] him in position to remain with the club longer.” All told, says Drellich, Hinch now appears to have a guaranteed term that runs through 2018.
Precise details remain hazy in large part because the exact terms of Hinch’s original contract were never entirely clear. Reports at the time pegged it at three years and an option, but he has suggested that may not have been the case.
Regardless of whether this deal is properly termed an extension, or whether it is just includes the exercise of an option year, it obviously reflects an enhanced commitment from the organization. Hinch impressed on all fronts last year, bringing a broad skillset to the job and drawing positive reviews from GM Jeff Luhnow and owner Jim Crane.
The proof was in the pudding, of course, as the new-look ‘Stros surged to the post-season and very nearly took the AL West. With a host of exciting young players returning, and a few key additions plugged in over the winter, expectations are high in Houston for 2016. That doesn’t mean a repeat will be easy; the entire American League has hopes of contending, and the western division in particular seems wide open.
MLBTR Mailbag: Bruce, Royals, Top 50, Pre-Arb, Aybar, A’s
Time for this week’s MLBTR Mailbag! Thanks for all the questions, and sorry if we couldn’t get to yours. (It was great to see many first-time submissions this week; we always enjoy hearing a little bit about your motivations to write in!) Remember that you can also chat with Steve Adams and myself on Tuesday and Thursday afternoons, respectively, and tune in to MLBTR’s weekly podcast every Thursday.
On to the questions …
Will Jay Bruce be traded before the season starts? — Jason R.
Well, the Orioles now look to be out of the market after adding Pedro Alvarez, and barring a revival of talks with the Blue Jays that option may be gone. I don’t see the Angels taking on enough salary to make that a viable landing spot, and the same holds for the Indians. The White Sox might have made sense, but now they’ve got Austin Jackson.
Looking around the league, I’m not sure I see an immediate match. An injury could always change things, of course, but as it stands it looks like the Reds will need to hope that Bruce has a strong first half and see how the summer trade market develops.
The Royals have three AAA outfielders on their 40-man roster, who all delivered great offensive numbers last year: Brett Eibner, Reymond Fuentes and Jose Martinez. But nobody is talking about them as a potential RF for the Royals. Do they have any flaws? Or what is the problem? — Holger B.
Writing in from Germany is a sure way to get your question answered! Thanks for reading all the way over in Europe.
In a way, I have to disagree with the premise of the question, because I think that people following the club closely are well aware that these guys are in the mix with Jarrod Dyson going down. All are on the 40-man, which means the team has something invested and believes they have at least some near-term and/or potential future value to the organization. And let’s be honest: the competition should be wide open at this point. Travis Snider is the most established choice to platoon with Paulo Orlando, who played a big role last year, but neither is a surefire option.
Do Eibner, Fuentes, and Martinez have flaws? Well, sure. Any player does, and none of them even cracked the top 15 of Baseball America’s recently-released organizational prospect rankings — though Eibner and Martinez landed on the back half of the list. Both of those players hit from the right side and had impressive seasons last year at Triple-A, so they could presumably push Orlando for his role or challenge for a final bench spot. Fuentes, meanwhile, will be squared up against Snider. He’s a speedy player who swings from the left side, making him a closer match to Dyson’s skillset.
Beyond that, you’d need to ask a prospect hound or team beat writer for more info. I think what’s most interesting here is that Kansas City could open the year with some of the names noted above in significant spots. While that seems sub-optimal from my perspective, I’ve learned not to question the Dayton Moore-Ned Yost magic. And if nothing else there are plenty of possibilities; second base still seems to me a bigger overall organizational question mark.
Now that most of the top 50 FAs have signed who do you feel is the best value for their respective team? — Jake
Okay, I think I’m ready to go on record here. Your question touches upon both value from a market perspective and organizational fit, so I’ll address it in that way. Thus, even if I were to believe that Ian Desmond represents a bargain at $8MM — which I do — I don’t think I’d choose him since he is obviously a bit of an experiment in the outfield.
Among MLBTR’s top fifty free agents — all of whom have now signed except for David Freese and Justin Morneau — I’m going to pick …. well, I’m going to pick the city of Chicago. Getting Austin Jackson and Mat Latos for just $8MM in total, without sacrificing a draft pick, looks like a coup for the White Sox. The organization needed to add a lot of pieces, and managed to do it at a minimal cost through these signings and a couple of trades. Sure, there’s plenty of risk, but both look like outstanding values as younger players with plenty at stake. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ additions of Dexter Fowler and John Lackey are two other deals I quite liked, and I’m also fairly bullish on the more significant investments that the team made in Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist. Honorable mention: Matt Wieters to the Orioles, by way of qualifying offer acceptance.
Do you think with all the publicity about Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom‘s salary for 2016, that we could see a change to pre-arbitration salaries in the new CBA? — Nicolas C.
I think we will, but not necessarily due to Cole and deGrom in particular. All of the rules governing player salaries, from the league minimum to the qualifying offer, function primarily to shift around the overall chunk of the game’s money that is allocated to players, and it’s been clear for some time now that the players in the pre-arb service classes are increasingly underpaid. The divide is all the more glaring given the huge contributions that young stars (and plenty of other quality players) have made not long after cracking the majors. It’s time for a bump, if not also some other modifications to the ways in which pre-arb salaries are arrived at.
Would Erick Aybar be a fit to fill in while Jhonny Peralta mends for the Redbirds? If so, what might the Braves get in return and would Coppy do it?
There’s little question that the Atlanta front office will listen to any interest in basically any of its players — they dealt Craig Kimbrel the day before the season started last year, after all — and I don’t doubt that this kind of scenario was contemplated when Aybar was added in the Andrelton Simmons deal. In the grand scheme of things, trading Aybar would hardly warrant outrage from the Braves fanbase with Kimbrel, Simmons, and so many others already gone. And it isn’t hard to see a plausible match from the Cardinals’ side, since Jedd Gyorko has no track record at short, the team is obviously set up to compete right now, and the NL Central may be out of reach with a slow start.
That being said, I wouldn’t expect a deal to come easy. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs suggested Aybar as a replacement, but rightly noted that the Braves probably aren’t as motivated to part with him right now as one might expect. The organization wants to begin moving in the right direction, and relying on options like Daniel Castro, Chase d’Arnaud, and Reid Brignac to open the year at short is probably not the best way to put a winning product on the field. And they’d obviously face the same barren open market situation as the Cards if they went looking for an alternative.
I’m not going to guess at precisely what St. Louis would need to offer up to get the Braves to bite, but I’m willing to bet that it won’t be terribly palatable. Atlanta would probably find it less painful to deal Aybar at the deadline, assuming the club isn’t firmly in contention, and would likely be looking for some legitimate upside in return to do a deal now. Steve Adams just ran down a whole host of possible options for the Cards to consider, and it looks to me as if one or more of the other names on his list will ultimately shake loose at a much lower price tag. If Peralta’s outlook for a return is fairly positive, the need might only be for a temporary stopgap, so the guess here is that St. Louis waits for someone else to become available. (And if all else fails, surely the Yankees would part with Pete Kozma?)
The A’s roster seems a little too full. Is there a trade coming? — Isaac G.
Predicting the Oakland front office is a fool’s errand, but I’d be surprised if it felt the need to shed any depth. That’s not to say that you won’t see players depart, possibly by way of minor trades, especially if there aren’t any significant injuries. But that’s more likely to be driven by roster constraints — guys who are out of options, minor league free agents with opt-outs, etc. — than by any decision to cash in assets. It’s rare enough to see significant springtime deals as it is, and Oakland will surely prefer to maintain flexibility entering the year.
AL West Notes: Astros, Parker, A’s, Angels
The Astros‘ first-base situation is one of the more fluid among contenders league-wide, but Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle writes that the competition is off to a compelling start. Possible options such as A.J. Reed, Tyler White, Jon Singleton, and Matt Duffy are among the players who have begun making their case for major league jobs, and Drellich explains that it won’t be long before the team will begin to make its choices. “The at-bats are going to start to dry up with the competition,” said manager A.J. Hinch, who added that he’ll begin to give more playing time to the most likely candidates in the middle of March.
Here’s some more camp news out of the AL West:
- Athletics righty Jarrod Parker is going to be limited to bullpen duty as he tries to work back from an elbow fracture (not to mention his two prior Tommy John procedures), Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The 27-year-old, who hasn’t seen MLB action since 2013, will likely trim his offerings down to a fastball-change combination. He’s currently building up his arm strength in bullpen sessions, and says that he’s just taking things one step at a time. “Expectations are not in my vocabulary anymore,” said Parker. “I just go day to day and try to be in tune, see how I feel, give what I’ve got that day and not try to reach.”
- The Athletics have received good signs on the injury front from catcher Stephen Vogt and righty Jesse Hahn, as Slusser further reports. Vogt, who isn’t far removed from an elbow procedure, hit two home runs today and says he was glad to be able to “trust the elbow” and “take full swings and not feel any pain.” And Hahn, who was limited last year with a concerning forearm strain, looked good in his two innings and says he feels healthy. Likewise, outfielder Coco Crisp looks to be in good form after an injury-riddled 2015 season, manager Bob Melvin told reporters including John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter).
- Over in Angels camp, the left field situation remains an interesting one to watch, and MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes that 24-year-old Rafael Ortega is a player who has impressed early. Of course, the organization still seems set to go with a platoon of Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry to open the season. As Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times reports, they have taken a long and winding road to this point.