Devon Travis Out For 16-20 Weeks After Shoulder Surgery
Blue Jays second baseman Devon Travis will not be able to resume baseball activities for 16 to 20 weeks after undergoing left shoulder surgery, per a club announcement (via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, on Twitter). If that time frame holds, Travis will not be ready for Opening Day of the 2016 season.
Travis, 25 in February, was an early Rookie of the Year favorite before shoulder troubles slowed and eventually cut short his excellent 2015 campaign. Acquired from the Tigers in an offseason swap that sent Anthony Gose to Detroit, Travis burst onto the scene with a .304/.361/.498 batting line but was limited to just 62 games and 239 total plate appearances. It’s unclear exactly when he’ll be ready to join the Blue Jays, but for the early portion of the season, it seems safe to assume that Ryan Goins will man second base in Toronto, as he did following Travis’ 2015 injuries.
The question for Toronto is whether or not to seek additional second base depth beyond Goins. While bringing in a starting-caliber second baseman seems unlikely, the team did go out and acquire Cliff Pennington (who signed with the Angels yesterday) to add some infield depth late in the season. Making a similar type of addition, perhaps on a minor league deal, could make sense for the Blue Jays as they look to safeguard themselves against further injuries. Losing Goins, for instance, would greatly call their infield depth into question.
Starting pitching and relief help figure to remain Toronto’s primary focus, but some speculative depth options for the Jays could include names like Jonathan Herrera, Mike Aviles and Alberto Callaspo. A reunion with fan favorite Munenori Kawasaki would, of course, provide additional middle infield depth as well.
Darren O’Day Seeks Four-Year Deal
Free agent reliever Darren O’Day is asking teams for four years with a guarantee in the range of $28MM to $36MM, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. That’s hardly a surprising request, as the veteran righty probably represents the best free agent pen piece on the open market.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked O’Day 33rd on his list of the top fifty free agents. While he predicted that O’Day would command an average annual value in the range suggested by today’s report, Dierkes also said that he expects only a three-year guaranteed term. Last year, two relievers achieved four-year deals, but both (Andrew Miller and David Robertson) were significantly younger than O’Day. Miller’s guarantee came in at $36MM, while Robertson got $46MM in his contract.
It remains an open question whether the 33-year-old can secure that added season. O’Day appears to have a wide market, but at least two prospective landing spots — the Red Sox and Tigers — may no longer be willing to pay top dollar for a reliever after adding options via trade. And there are other major relief arms still on the trading block, not to mention other quality free agents (such as Joakim Soria and Tyler Clippard) to contend with.
Tigers Acquire Francisco Rodriguez
The Tigers have officially acquired reliever Francisco Rodriguez from the Brewers. Infielder Javier Betancourt will head to Milwaukee in the swap. Detroit will also send a player to be named in the deal. Detroit’s announcement mentions that it, too, will receive a PTBNL, but both teams’ general managers have indicated that is not a straightforward aspect of the deal. (Twitter links.)
K-Rod was something of a forgotten man in early-offseason discussions of relief trade chips, but it always seemed likely that he’d change hands. After all, new Brewers GM David Stearns has clearly been tasked with rebuilding. Rodriguez is obviously not a long-term piece, and his backloaded contract still has $9.5MM left to go (including the buyout of a 2017 option).
Detroit will pay the entirety of the remaining obligation. But with $2MM going to the buyout and another $2MM of salary deferred, some of that cost will be pushed into the future. It’s also worth noting that the $6MM option will really only represent a $4MM decision for Detroit, and could well end up being exercised.
Though he’s now nearly 34 years of age, Rodriguez has continued to be a reliable force at the back of the pen. He ended the 2015 season with 57 innings of 2.21 ERA pitching, striking out 9.8 and walking only 1.7 batters per nine along the way. Rodriguez also permitted a meager 6.0 hits per nine, leaving him with an outstanding (and career-low) 0.860 WHIP on the season.
It’s true that Rodriguez benefitted from a .234 BABIP last year, and an even lower one in the season prior, but he’s carried a .271 mark for his career and also put up a strong 46.4% groundball rate. Of greater concern, perhaps, is that Rodriguez has been increasingly homer-prone as his arm speed has dropped. He lost a full mile per hour off his average fastball velocity between 2014 and 2015, falling below 90 mph for the first time. Then again, that didn’t stop him from producing a 14.0% swinging strike rate — a level he hasn’t reached since he was with the Angels.
Rodriguez fills the stated desire of Tigers GM Al Avila to add a proven closer. He locked down 38 wins last year and has racked up 386 saves over his career, leading all active pitchers. While the value of the save as a statistic is plenty debatable, there’s little reason to fear that Rodriguez will be ruffled by high-leverage situations. And his acquisition will reduce the team’s need to spend more on the open market (or on other trade targets) to add pen help, clearing more resources to dedicate to starting pitching.
Meanwhile, the Brewers will not only shed some salary but will pick up a useful young player in Betancourt, who reached the High-A level last year at age 20. He currently sits at 11th among Tigers prospects, in the estimation of MLB.com, which says that he profiles more as a second baseman but is still capable of handling shortstop. Betancourt looks to be a contact hitter and hasn’t yet shown himself to be much of a long ball or stolen base threat. He slashed .263/.304/.336 in 531 plate appearances over the 2015 season, striking out only 44 times against 29 walks.
Venezuelan journalist Augusto Cardenas first reported the swap via Twitter. James Schmehl of MLive.com reported the inclusion of a PTBNL on Twitter, and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted that Detroit would take all of Rodriguez’s salary.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
David Ortiz To Retire After 2016 Season
TODAY: Ortiz announced via Twitter that he’ll call it quits after the coming year. “Life is based on different chapters,” said Ortiz, “and I think I am ready to experience the next one in my life.”
YESTERDAY: Red Sox slugger David Ortiz plans to retire at the end of the 2016 campaign, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. That’s not exactly shocking news, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes on Twitter that Ortiz hinted at just that possibility over the course of the 2015 season.
Boston owes Ortiz $16MM for the coming season after he maxed out his vesting option escalators, but that’s a small price to pay for his recent levels of production. His deal includes another vesting/club option with a floating value for the 2017 season, but it appears that it won’t have any practical importance.
Ortiz turns 40 tomorrow, but has shown no signs of slowing at the plate. Despite his advanced age, he slashed an outstanding .273/.360/.553 last season and swatted 37 home runs in his 614 plate appearances. The Dominican native also became the most recent MLB player to enter the 500 home run club.
The coming season will be the twentieth in which Ortiz has seen action at the major league level. He spent six seasons with the Twins, putting up solid offensive numbers, but was released by the organization after a 2002 that was his best in Minnesota.
His career took off once he signed with the Red Sox. Ortiz began putting up huge numbers as soon as he came to Fenway, reeling off a five-year run over which he carried a .302/.402/.612 batting line and landed in the top 5 in AL MVP voting after every one of those seasons (though he never won the award).
It seemed like Ortiz was beginning his decline phase thereafter, as his average, OBP, and slugging percentage all dropped to the lowest levels of his Red Sox career in 2009. That proved, instead, to be little more than a blip, as his 149 OPS+ over the six seasons since amply attests.
There’s no question that Ortiz will go down as an important member of the Red Sox pantheon. He was, of course, a key member of the organization’s 2004, 2007, and 2013 championship clubs. If anything, he’s been even better in the post-season — especially the World Series, where he owns an unfathomable .455/.576/.795 batting line over 59 total plate appearances.
Really, the only debate at this point is whether Ortiz deserves a place in the Hall of Fame. If you focus only on his offensive numbers, that is rather an easy sell. But there are other considerations that complicate things. From an on-field perspective, Ortiz has almost exclusively been a DH, which obviously limits his overall value. And doubt remains about his involvement with performance-enhancing drugs, as he was reportedly among the players who tested positive for a later-banned substance back in 2003.
There’s plenty of time to debate Ortiz’s legacy and case for Cooperstown over the years to come. For now, we’ll look forward to one last season of admiring that swing, with its high, one-handed finish, and the towering drives that result.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Trade Market Notes: Tigers, Fernandez, Chavez, Belt
The Tigers have canvassed the trade market for late-inning relievers, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets, checking in on closers including Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. But the team is “not comfortable with [the] asking prices” it’s been quoted, says Rosenthal. Of course, Detroit has also been tied to several of the best-available free agent relievers. If a swap isn’t in the offing, presumably the club will look to the open market to build out its pen.
Here are some more trade market notes:
- There was some buzz yesterday surrounding the possibility of the Marlins dangling stud righty Jose Fernandez in trades after Craig Mish of Sirius XM tweeted that there is a “growing sentiment” inside and outside the organization that a deal could occur this winter. That’s hardly an indication that a deal is likely, but it wouldn’t be surprising for the Fish at least to listen. The Scott Boras client has three years of control remaining and doesn’t seem likely to sign an extension. While he’ll be rather affordable — MLBTR projects only a $2MM arbitration salary because of his limited innings last year — he’d also be a hotly-pursued trade piece that could potentially bring back a huge return of more controllable talent at or near the big league level.
- Marlins sources downplayed the likelihood of a Fernandez deal to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. And club president David Samson told Jackson: “Some players are more likely to be traded than others. Jose fits in the latter category. He is a Marlin for at least the next three years and hopefully longer and we look forward to the start of the 2016 season.” As MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro notes on Twitter, it is also worth bearing in mind that the club is in the middle of important TV rights fees negotiations. Dealing away one of the club’s two major stars wouldn’t figure to aid the club’s leverage in those talks.
- The Athletics have fielded “significant trade interest” in righty Jesse Chavez, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. Oakland could consider dealing the 32-year-old swingman now that free agent lefty Rich Hill has signed, Passan adds. MLBTR projects Chavez to earn $4.7MM in his final trip through arbitration.
- After extending Brandon Crawford yesterday, there’s still some uncertainty surrounding the Giants‘ other key, 4+ service-time infielder by that first name. First baseman Brandon Belt could also be an extension candidated, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links), although he adds that the sides may not have progressed very far yet in talks. But there’s still also a possibility that Belt will be traded, per Schulman. While other teams may be somewhat hesitant since Belt ended the year with concussion issues, there are no reasons at present to believe that he’ll be limited going forward. And his consistent production would undoubtedly draw plenty of interest.
International Notes: Vargas, Ona, Twins
As we await the outcome of the Twins’ negotiations with Korean slugger Byung-ho Park and the posting of fellow Korean All-Star Ah-seop Son, let’s take a look at some other news pertaining to the international market:
- Another exciting young Cuban player could soon be on his way to a major league organization, according to a report from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. 16-year-old infielder Miguel Vargas — the son of former Cuban star Lazaro Vargas — has defected from the island with his father. (The elder Vargas is no minor figure in the country: he played on two gold medal-winning teams and was the manager and director of the Havana Industriales.) As Sanchez notes, Vargas is one of several younger players who will look to become eligible for this July 2 period (if they can secure an exemption) or the one that follows it. While most prominent Cuban players who have joined the league in recent years were older and more established, we seem to be experiencing an increasing trend of younger players looking to sign at the same age as their counterparts in other parts of Latin America.
- 19-year-old Cuban outfielder Jorge Ona falls in between the veteran types and the just-eligible teenagers. As Ben Badler of Baseball America writes, Ona took the sixth spot on BA’s latest ranking of Cuban talent, and he’s the best player who has left the island in search of a big league job. Ona is still waiting to be declared a free agent, but Badler says he stands a good chance of qualifying to sign during the present signing period. There’s new video of the youngster available at the link.
- Twins slugger Kennys Vargas — no known relation to the gentlemen of the same surname discussed above — has drawn interest from the Korea Baseball Organization, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Selling the rights to the 25-year-old slugger could help balance out the team’s prospective signing of Park, who would in some regards take the place of Vargas in the organization. Club VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff said that moving Vargas “wouldn’t be in play unless or until we got Park done.” Of couse, Vargas himself would need to agree to a move and reach a contract with a KBO club. The Twins have been among the most active MLB teams in sending players to Korea. (From a player’s perspective, there’s often quite a bit more money and fame to be found abroad. Eric Thames, for example, has turned into a KBO star.)
- Meanwhile, 24-year-old Twins outfielder Oswaldo Arcia has told the team that he is not interested in going to Asia at this point. “The player has to agree,” Radcliff said. “He has no interest in doing that. He wants to be a major league star.” Arcia is coming off of a tough season — he was demoted and struggled at Triple-A — but has shown himself to be at least a competent major league hitter already. While he’s also a poorly-regarded defender, Arcia would still presumably draw interest from other big league clubs. He may well end up getting a chance elsewhere, as Berardino notes that he’s out of minor league options.
Giants Agree To Minors Pact With Kyle Blanks
TODAY: The deal is complete pending physical, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News tweets.
YESTERDAY: The Giants are “close to finalizing” a minor-league deal with free agent outfielder/first baseman Kyle Blanks, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter. The oft-injured slugger is expected to have a solid shot at breaking camp with the big club, Shea adds.
Blanks, 29, has at times looked like a possible big league regular. There have been ups and downs, but he owns a useful .241/.322/.416 batting line in 933 career plate appearances at the major league level, spread widely over seven seasons.
There are other reasons to believe that Blanks is worth a roll of the dice. For one thing, he’s dominated the Triple-A level to the tune of a .300/.400/.568 slash line. And defensive metrics have generally viewed him as an average (if not slightly above average) defender in the corner outfield and at first.
The biggest difficulty to date has been health. Blanks has suffered from elbow, shoulder, and foot issues over the last five years, and most recently underwent surgical procedures on both Achilles tendons.
It appears that San Francisco has in mind to utilize Blanks as a right-handed-hitting bench bat, if he cracks the roster. He could theoretically spell Brandon Belt at first, though Buster Posey also figures to see some time there. It’s also possible to imagine Blanks spending time in left field — at least if the club does not add a big-name free agent to play there.
Poll: Assessing The Andrelton Simmons Trade
We often hear talk of which team “won” a trade, despite the fact that most deals are driven at least as much by organizational need as they are asset valuation. Truthfully, assessing a swap from that perspective alone is rarely sufficient and often misleading. That being said, it can be an interesting exercise to focus purely on value, especially when a deal involves long-term assets on both sides.
That’s the way this poll will approach the recent trade between the Braves and Angels. Let’s break down the contractual assets that changed hands:
Angels Receive
- Andrelton Simmons, 26, SS — Controlled for five years with $53MM guaranteed. Arguably the game’s best defensive player, Simmons has historically been merely an average hitter for his position. He has shown some power (17 home runs in 2013), though, arguably making him a high-floor player with upside.
- Jose Briceno, 23, C — The backstop, seemingly a minor part of the deal, has yet to advance into the upper minors and struggled last year at the High-A level.
Braves Receive
- Sean Newcomb, 22, LHP — Rising prospect with 6+ years of control available who pitched at Double-A level last year. The power southpaw has significant upside but has battled control issues.
- Chris Ellis, 23, RHP — Fast-moving college arm who could contribute at the back of a rotation. He also reached Double-A in 2015 and can be controlled for 6+ seasons in majors.
- Erick Aybar, 31, SS — Entering his final year of control at a $8.5MM salary, Aybar could be an underappreciated part of this deal. He’s a quality veteran infielder coming off of a down year, but with a history of sturdy defense, good speed, and an above-average bat for a shortstop. He could also become a trade chip this winter or at the trade deadline.
- $2.5MM (representing difference between 2016 salaries of Simmons and Aybar)
Both organizations have new general managers who went out on a limb, in different ways, to strike this deal. And both talked about the value proposition that they faced (in addition to considerations of organizational need).
Angels GM Billy Eppler has many roster holes to fill, and could easily have relied on Aybar, but explained that the trade presented a rare chance to add a top-quality defender at the game’s most important position in the field. “When you have an opportunity, you do it,” he said. “The free agent market does not generally offer a plentiful amount of shortstops. It was a supply-and-demand equation.” Only that kind of premium ability could justify giving up Newcomb’s huge arm, per Eppler, who said that doing so “gives you a lot of pause and makes your stomach hurt a little bit.”
For Braves GM John Coppolella, meanwhile, there were also references to the need to seize an opportunity to acquire hard-to-get assets at an appealing price. “It’s a very tough trade, and a painful trade for us,” he said. “We didn’t want to trade Andrelton Simmons. But we felt this was too good for us to pass up. We felt like we were getting so much talent back in this deal, that if we didn’t make this trade, it would be very tough for us to keep going forward with our plans.” He went on to discuss the importance of Aybar to the swap, noting that the deal was not “some kind of prospect trade,” but rather “was a value-for-value trade that had two really good prospects in it.”
So, both general managers felt so torn about the deal that their comments referenced pain (physical or otherwise). Yet both also saw a value proposition that was simply too good to pass up. The Halos pulled the trigger even though they already had a good shortstop in place for 2016 and will have rotation openings thereafter. And the rebuilding Braves made the deal despite Simmons’ youth and control, not to mention the fact that they have already built a stable of young pitching through other trades.
We’ll have to wait to see how things play out, of course, but it’s still fun to ask: if you were forced to take one side of this deal, from a pure value perspective (i.e., ignoring team-specific context), which one would you take?
Which Side Of The Andrelton Simmons Swap Has More Value?
-
Angels got more value in Simmons and Briceno 46% (7,902)
-
Braves got more value in Newcomb, Ellis, Aybar, and cash 37% (6,410)
-
Value is equivalent 16% (2,820)
Total votes: 17,132
David Ross Likely To Retire After Season
Cubs catcher David Ross said yesterday that he’s likely to retire after the coming season in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). The veteran is entering the second and final season of the two-year, $5MM free agent deal he signed to join the Chicago organization.
“I think this is probably going to be it for me,” said Ross. He explained that he’s “going to give it one more run” but that it’s “time to be a dad” thereafter.
Ross, 38, is entering his 15th season of MLB action and has long been one of the game’s best-respected back-up backstops. Though he has only taken more than 200 plate appearances in a season twice in his career — over 2006 and 2007 with the Reds — Ross has seen regular reserve duty (between 100 and 200 PA) in every season dating back to 2003.
At his best, Ross has presented a reliable on-base threat with good pop. While he had several such individual seasons, his best multi-year stretch was with the Braves between 2009 and 2013. Over those four years, Ross slashed a robust .269/.353/.463 and joined Brian McCann to make up one of the league’s best catcher pairings. Of course, the veteran is also a gifted defender who still rates as an outstanding pitch framer even as his offensive production has fallen off.
Ross is a well-traveled player, though the “journeyman” tag does not fit here given his consistent playing time and many multi-season stops. In addition to the clubs mentioned above, Ross played for the World Series champion Red Sox in 2013, his first of two seasons in Boston, opened his career with the Dodgers, and had briefer stints with the Pirates and Padres.
It remains to be seen whether Ross will ultimately consider another campaign beyond 2016. As things stand, though, it appears that he’ll enjoy one more season with an exciting, young Cubs team before hanging up his gear.
Free Agent Notes: Greinke, Soria, Hill, Parra, Anderson
It may not be wise to assume that the Dodgers will end up bringing back righty Zack Greinke, ESPNLos Angeles.com’s Mark Saxon writes. The team has shown indications that it is looking for younger, less expensive assets rather than huge veteran contracts. And Greinke himself may be less than thrilled with the clubhouse culture in L.A., leaving a “distaste” that “is believed to be a factor in his thinking.” Obviously, Greinke and the club thrived with his first contract, so it’s probably not worth writing off a return, but the report does suggest the interest may not be as clear as had generally been assumed.
Here’s the latest on some other free agent situations around the league:
- The Tigers have “picked up” talks with reliever Joakim Soria but haven’t yet made him an offer, MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports. Soria received one offer from an unknown team earlier in the offseason, says Beck, but the market has moved slowly as a potentially-active trade market for pen arms continues to sort itself out.
- Lefty Rich Hill is expected to sign a contract this week, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. It’s not clear which club, but Bradford says it isn’t the Red Sox. Hill’s out-of-nowhere late-season run in Boston has made him an interesting piece of the market picture. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Hill will be able to secure a one-year deal with a $5MM guarantee.
- The Mets have had contact with the representatives for free agent outfielder Gerardo Parra, Marc Carig of Newsday reports on Twitter. Parra would, presumably, take part in a platoon with Juan Lagares, though that would mean relying on him rather heavily in center. While he’s played there, Parra has spent far more time in the corner outfield. And it could well be hard to find enough playing time to woo the 28-year-old, given that the club is rather heavily invested in Lagares and has two left-handed hitters (Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto) set to man the corners.
- Dodgers lefty Brett Anderson spoke with reporters today about his decision to accept the $15.8MM qualifying offer, as Saxon reports. He indicated that he was hoping to continue to build his stock in advance of next year’s market, a risky but tantalizing strategy. On the one hand, Anderson has a lengthy injury history and is finally coming off of a healthy season; on the other, he’s still young, has mostly dealt with a few fluke injuries in recent years, and can look forward to a seller-friendly market next winter. “There were some multi-year deals out there, but my situation was a little unique and I just wanted to better myself,” Anderson said. “That, and I liked being in L.A., I liked my teammates, I liked everything about it other than the ending of the season.” Anderson also noted that he and the Dodgers had discussed a multi-year arrangement at some point and could again pursue some kind of deal, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick tweets.