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Reds Sign Tyler Gilbert To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have signed left-handed pitcher Tyler Gilbert to a minor league contract, the team announced. The deal comes with an invitation to major league Spring Training. The All Bases Covered client will be 30 years old in 2024.

Drafted by the Phillies in 2015, Gilbert was traded to the Dodgers ahead of the 2020 season and selected by the Diamondbacks the following winter in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft. He made his debut with Arizona in 2021 and is best known for throwing a no-hitter during his first MLB start and fourth big league appearance. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to live up to that impossibly high standard throughout the rest of his career. He has shuttled back and forth between the majors and Triple-A over the past three years, while also making a couple of trips to the injured list with trouble in his pitching elbow. Overall, he tossed 91 2/3 innings for the Diamondbacks, pitching to a 4.32 ERA and 4.78 SIERA in 13 starts and 15 relief appearances.

The lefty spent most of his 2023 campaign pitching out of the bullpen, working as a primary reliever for the first time since his 2019 season in the Phillies organization. While he gave up 10 runs on 21 hits in 17 1/3 big league innings, his underlying numbers were much more promising. Gilbert, one of the slowest-throwing arms in the game in 2021 and ’22, threw all his pitches with an extra 2-4 mph. Opposing batters swung and missed more often at almost all of his offerings, and he nearly doubled his strikeout rate from 2022. Consequently, his 3.32 SIERA was a vast improvement over his 5.17 figure from the previous two seasons. Moreover, while his 11 MLB appearances make for a tiny sample, he boasted a near-identical strikeout rate in 74 2/3 innings at Triple-A.

The Reds have already added plenty of bullpen arms this winter, signing Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter, re-signing Buck Farmer, and scooping up Justin Bruihl and Brooks Kriske on minor league deals. They also added Nick Martinez to the rotation, although his experience as both a starter and reliever surely increased his appeal. Still, there is no such thing as too much bullpen depth. Nor is there such thing as too much starting pitching depth, for that matter, and given the fact that the injury-prone Frankie Montas is the only starter on the team with a full, qualified season under his belt, Gilbert’s experience as a starter surely increased his appeal, too.

Gilbert has one option year remaining.

MLBTR Poll: Are The Rangers Done Spending This Winter?

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After winning the 2023 World Series, the first in franchise history, the Rangers have a big decision to make. They can either rest on their laurels, having accomplished their ultimate goal well ahead of schedule, or they can double down, reconfirming their commitment to winning. There is no denying their aggressive approach over the last two years paid dividends, but will they take that as motivation to remain aggressive or as impetus to let their foot off the gas?

The Rangers have been relatively quiet this offseason, having made just two notable acquisitions: starting pitcher Tyler Mahle and reliever Kirby Yates. Mahle, 29, is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won’t return to the mound until midsummer at the earliest. Yates, 37 in March, overcame elbow problems of his own to pitch a full season in 2023, but at this point in his career, he looks more like a middle reliever than the All-Star he once was.

Meanwhile, several key contributors and high-paid veterans came off the books at the end of the 2023 season, including Jordan Montgomery, Mitch Garver, Martín Pérez, Jake Odorizzi, Aroldis Chapman, and Will Smith. In other words, this team has holes to fill and, at least in theory, should have money to spend.

However, after allocating significant resources to sign players like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi over the past two years, not to mention adding Max Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, the Rangers’ estimated 2024 payroll already sits dangerously close to the first luxury tax threshold. According to Roster Resource, the team has just over $4MM left to spend before they’d have to pay the tax.

The Rangers paid the competitive balance tax for the first time this past season. The total bill came in around $1.8MM, a drop in the bucket compared to their payroll and a small price to pay for a World Series title. Nonetheless, managing partner Ray C. Davis “isn’t keen to start the season above the tax threshold” in 2024, according to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News. Grant has suggested as much at multiple points throughout the offseason, but he reemphasized the idea earlier this week. Specifically, he notes the higher surcharge for clubs that pay the tax multiple years in a row; teams pay a 20% tax on all overages their first year above the threshold, 30% in their second straight season, and 50% in subsequent seasons after that.

Grant also acknowledges that the Rangers, like several other teams, are dealing with uncertainty surrounding local TV revenue after Diamond Sports Group filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. That said, he stops short of presuming the team will start spending again if DSG and the Rangers reach a new deal for broadcast rights in 2024.

Despite all these budgetary questions, general manager Chris Young went on the record in late November to say Texas would be “active in free agency,” even if he wasn’t going to spend to the same degree as he had the previous two winters (per Grant). However, it’s unclear if signing Mahle and Yates and calling it a day would count as an active offseason in Young’s book. For what it’s worth, the Rangers have been linked to several top free agents over the past two months. Before signing Mahle and Yates, the team was connected with pitchers like Montgomery, Yariel Rodriguez, and Jordan Hicks. More recently, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested the Rangers were still in on Clayton Kershaw, despite his recent shoulder surgery – even though Texas already has three starters (deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle) who are recovering from surgeries of their own.

Without shedding some financial commitments elsewhere on the roster, any new signing the Rangers make could push their luxury tax payroll over the first threshold for penalties. Thus, if Davis is serious about avoiding the tax in 2024, Texas could already be finished spending this offseason; needless to say, that would be an anticlimactic way to follow up a World Series-winning campaign. Then again, if Rosenthal is correct to think the Rangers are pursuing Kershaw, perhaps they aren’t ready to curb their aggression after all. In addition to a starting pitcher, this team could use another proven bullpen arm and a full-time designated hitter. Plenty of talented players are still available if Texas is willing to pay their price.

As things currently stand, the Rangers have a good chance to return to the playoffs and contend for the AL West crown in 2024. However, being the defending World Series champions doesn’t make them the division favorites, nor does it mean they can expect to walk back into the postseason next fall. If ownership wants to topple the Astros dynasty, they’d be wise to keep investing in their roster.

So, what do MLBTR readers have to say? Will the Rangers continue looking for upgrades, even if it means paying the luxury tax again next season? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Red Sox Could Be Looking To Shed Additional Payroll

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The Red Sox made waves on Saturday afternoon, trading seven-time All-Star and 2018 World Series champion Chris Sale to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for young infielder Vaughn Grissom. Boston needed a second baseman, and Grissom can fill that role right away – and potentially for years to come. Still, as talented as Grissom very well may be, it’s hard not to view the trade as something of a salary dump for the Red Sox. Although Sale has spent significant time on the injured list over the past several years, he has flashed great stuff when healthy, and the Red Sox need all the upside they can get if they’re going to compete in the fearsome AL East. By trading the veteran starter to the Braves, along with $17MM in cash, the Red Sox reduced their total payroll commitments by $10.5MM and their luxury tax payroll by approximately $7MM for 2024 (per Roster Resource).

This is not the only trade chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has made to decrease payroll this winter. He flipped Luis Urías to the Mariners just before the non-tender deadline, sacrificing the infielder’s upside to avoid his estimated $4.7MM arbitration salary. He also dealt Alex Verdugo to the Yankees and essentially replaced him with former Cardinals outfielder Tyler O’Neill, saving an estimated $3.7MM in the process. Those sound like relatively inconsequential numbers for a large-market team like Boston, but for what it’s worth, the money the team saved by trading Urías, Verdugo, and Sale adds up to just under $19MM; newly signed starter Lucas Giolito will earn $18MM in 2024.

Indeed, while the Red Sox typically run one of the higher payrolls in the sport, it seems they’ll be operating under a tighter budget this offseason. As reported by Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, the team has informed at least one free agent that they have to “shed more payroll” before they can pursue him “as aggressively as they want to.”

The Red Sox have shed significantly more payroll than they’ve added this winter. In addition to their various trades, the team let Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, Adam Duvall, James Paxton, and Joely Rodríguez reach free agency; those five accounted for just over $34MM in luxury tax payroll last season. Boston’s estimated luxury tax payroll now sits below $200MM for the first time since 2020. That being the case, it’s rather surprising to hear that ownership is tightening the purse strings. After all, it wasn’t so long ago that chairman Tom Werner claimed the team would be competitive in 2024, vowing to go “full throttle in every possible way” (per Sean McAdam of MassLive.com).

Of course, this rumor may be little more than a negotiation tactic, with the Red Sox playing hard to get to drive down a free agent target’s price. However, if Breslow is serious about reducing payroll, he might look to deal Kenley Jansen or Chris Martin in the coming weeks. The veteran relievers are set to hit free agency following the 2024 season, and they’d surely draw plenty of interest on the trading block. Jansen, who is owed $16MM next year, made his fourth career All-Star team last season, while Martin, who is set to make $9.5MM, led qualified MLB relievers in ERA. Losing Jansen or Martin would be a tough blow for Boston’s bullpen, but at least one could argue the Red Sox would be selling high on either arm. Jansen will be 36 next season, and he’s no longer the dominant closer he once was. Meanwhile, Martin will be 37, and it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to maintain an ERA below 2.00.

Breslow could also dangle Nick Pivetta, who is set to earn approximately $6.9MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, but then again, the team’s rotation looks thin enough as it is. Finally, the chief baseball officer would surely wish to be freed of the $95MM remaining on Trevor Story’s contract, but it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox could find a trade partner willing to take on the injury-prone shortstop.

It should also be said that it’s unclear which player Cotillo’s report refers to, as the Red Sox has been connected with no shortage of top free agents. The list includes frontline starting pitchers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, high-end relievers Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson, and slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández. All five of those free agents will be rewarded handsomely this winter, but needless to say, some will command a much higher salary than others. Perhaps the Red Sox would need to shed payroll before signing any of these players, but it’s possible they would only need to cut back to sign Snell or Montgomery to a nine-figure deal.

Free Agent Profile: Joc Pederson

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Thus far in the offseason, the free agent market has moved significantly faster for pitchers than for hitters. Twenty-two of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed this winter, and 16 of those (including Shohei Ohtani) have been pitchers. Even beyond the top 50, pitchers have made up the majority of notable MLB signings. However, with Ohtani and Jung Hoo Lee off the board, perhaps the market for position players will begin to heat up in the new year.

One particular bat to keep an eye on is Joc Pederson, a two-time All-Star with an .800 OPS across ten big league seasons and 1,140 career games. While he missed the cut-off for MLBTR’s Top 50 list, he is arguably the best hitter remaining among the honorable mentions, and if he rediscovers the success he had in 2022, he could prove to be a bargain for his new club.

Over the first five years of his career, Pederson was a consistent power threat and a walk machine, crushing 123 home runs to go along with a 12.1% walk rate and a .245 isolated power. After a couple of down years in 2020 and ’21, the lefty slugger bounced all the way back in ’22, putting up the best offensive numbers of his career. His .874 OPS ranked seventh in the National League (min. 400 PA), while his 146 wRC+ ranked fifth. He was named to his first All-Star team since his rookie season and was a Silver Slugger finalist in the outfield.

Following his eye-catching 2022 campaign, Pederson accepted a $19.7MM qualifying offer from the Giants, more than tripling his $6MM salary from the previous season. Unfortunately, he was not able to live up to the high expectations he set for himself. His numbers dropped in all three triple-slash categories, and while his .764 OPS was still well above average, it was hardly elite.

Be that as it may, there is plenty of reason for optimism as Pederson enters his age-32 campaign. For one thing, he recorded his highest walk rate since 2015 and the best walk-to-strikeout ratio of his career in 2023. His batting average and on-base percentage still declined, but that could merely be the result of bad luck on balls in play. While his .235 BA was below league average, his .264 xBA (per Baseball Savant) was significantly above average. Moreover, the -0.029 difference between his BA and xBA was the second largest gap among NL hitters (min. 200 balls in play).

In the same vein, the lefty’s .366 xwOBA was right in line with his .367 xwOBA from the previous season. Indeed, Pederson’s Baseball Savant page paints a pretty promising picture overall. His xwOBA ranked in the 90th percentile in MLB, while his 52.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 96th. On top of that, he set a new career high in maximum exit velocity, crushing one particular pitch at 116.6 mph. Only 13 hitters topped that number in 2023, a list of batters littered with MVP candidates and All-Stars. Needless to say, we’re talking about a hitter who can still demolish the baseball.

With all that in mind, it’s reasonable to presume Pederson will improve upon his .764 OPS and 111 wRC+ in 2024. According to the Steamer projection system at FanGraphs, he has the second-highest projected OPS (.809) among all unsigned free agents. Only Jorge Soler (.813) is ahead of him by a narrow margin, while Michael Brantley has the next highest projection at .799. To be fair, Pederson is unlikely to be an everyday player, and his projections presume a limited amount of exposure to same-handed pitching. Still, any hitter who can produce an .800 OPS on the heavy side of a platoon is a valuable player to have around.

Yet, unlike fellow outfield/DH bats Teoscar Hernández and Soler, Pederson hasn’t been connected with many teams so far this winter. Given the shallow market for impact bats, especially left-handed hitters, it’s somewhat strange he hasn’t generated more interest.

Around the end of the regular season, Pederson linked himself to his then-team, the Giants, telling Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he would love to return to San Francisco in 2024. “I really like it here,” he explained. “It’s a great group of guys. I love the way they run the organization.” While such comments aren’t always particularly revelatory, especially when they concern a player’s current team, it’s worth noting that Pederson chose to return to the Giants in 2023 instead of testing the open market after his All-Star season. In addition, he grew up rooting for the Giants, and he has spent all but one year of his professional career playing in his home state of California.

However, the Giants are almost certainly out of room for Pederson after signing KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113MM deal earlier this month. In addition to Lee, the Giants have four veteran outfielders on the roster, two of whom, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, are left-handed hitters with mediocre career platoon splits against same-handed pitching – much like Pederson himself.

Pederson also spurred brief speculation he was signing with the Phillies this winter after posting a picture of himself posing at Citizens Bank Park to his personal Instagram account. The rumors were shortlived, however, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com quickly set the record straight: “It doesn’t mean he’s signing with the Phillies. They haven’t even talked this offseason.”

To that end, Pederson never made much sense for the Phillies. Philadelphia already has a left-handed full-time DH (Kyle Schwarber) and a left-handed outfielder with sizeable platoon splits (Brandon Marsh). If president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is going to sign another bat, he will presumably target a right-handed hitter with a bit more defensive versatility.

The only team Pederson has been connected with by any source other than himself is the Blue Jays, who expressed interest in the outfielder earlier this month, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Davidi’s report came before Toronto signed Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, but that doesn’t mean the club couldn’t add Pederson, too. General manager Ross Atkins mentioned early in the offseason that he would consider adding a primary DH, and the Jays should also have playing time available in both outfield corners when the injury-prone Kiermaier and George Springer need some time off their feet. That said, the Blue Jays have also been heavily linked to Cody Bellinger this winter, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today calling them the favorites a couple of weeks back. Signing Bellinger, another left-handed outfielder, would likely take Toronto out of the running for Pederson.

So, beyond those three clubs, where could Pederson wind up? One possible landing spot is the Angels, who have room in the outfield and could certainly use a left-handed power bat. By all accounts, GM Perry Minasian isn’t planning to start a rebuild, and after missing out on Ohtani, he should have plenty of cash to spend. According to the estimates provided by Roster Resource, the Angels’ payroll currently sits about $60MM below the final tally from last season.

Another possibility is the Nationals, who are reportedly seeking a left-handed power bat this winter. If that is indeed the case, there might be no better option than Pederson. It’s hard to imagine the Nationals are in on Bellinger, or that Bellinger would choose to sign with a rebuilding club. Meanwhile, Brantley is an excellent left-handed hitter, but power hasn’t been a part of his offensive toolkit in several years. Brandon Belt is the only other free agent who looks to be an impactful left-handed hitter, but it’s anyone’s guess if he can keep mashing in his age-36 season.

Finally, the Mariners are one more suitor worth keeping in mind. After trading Jarred Kelenic and non-tendering Mike Ford, Seattle could use another lefty hitter. Mitch Garver figures to get most of the playing time at DH, but the Mariners have room for an upgrade in either one of the outfield corners. Considering president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s long-standing aversion to signing free agent position players to longer-term contracts, Pederson seems like a good fit; he might be the best free agent outfielder who would be open to signing a one-year deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Shohei Ohtani Notes: Advertising Revenue, 40-Man Roster Move

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The baseball world is still reeling from the news of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani signing a ten-year, $700MM deal with the Dodgers. Not only is it the largest contract in baseball history (by a mile), it is the most lucrative deal for any professional athlete, surpassing the four-year €555MM contract (approximately $674MM in USD) soccer star Lionel Messi signed with FC Barcelona in 2017. Given the unprecedented nature of the deal, it’s more than fair for fans to wonder if it makes financial sense. Is Ohtani genuinely worth nearly twice as much as Aaron Judge? Can a single player truly provide $70MM in value per year over the next ten years?

Moreover, various outlets have reported that the Dodgers significantly outbid the competition to secure Ohtani’s services. J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation reports that the Dodgers upped their offer by as much as $100MM on the final day of negotiations. Jon Heyman of the New York Post quotes a team source from one of the finalists, who claimed, “We certainly were not at 699 [million dollars].” Meanwhile, when asked if the Angels had made an offer close to that $700MM number, team president John Carpino simply responded, “No comment” (per Sarah Valenzuela of the L.A. Times).

However, it is critical to remember that Ohtani’s deal is not worth $700MM in present-day value, due to the deferred payments in the contract. As Jeff Passan of ESPN eloquently explained, “Money today is more valuable than money tomorrow, inflation being what it is.” Thus, the other finalists for Ohtani might not have offered him anywhere close to $700MM total, but that doesn’t mean the Dodgers blew any other offer out of the water in terms of present-day value.

More to the point, while Ohtani’s contract might be unprecedented, so too is Ohtani an unprecedented player. The value he will bring to his new organization goes beyond his performance on the field, and the Dodgers could be in for a windfall if they know how to market their brand-new international superstar. Sam Blum and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic quote an anonymous MLB evaluator who claims the deal will “pay for itself within six or seven years… Even just on advertising alone.” That might be an exaggeration, but still, it’s clear how highly Ohtani is valued around the league.

As many sources have pointed out (including Bob Nightengale of USA Today), Ohtani earned approximately $40MM in endorsement deals last offseason. The MLB player with the next highest endorsement-related income was Mike Trout, who took home $5MM. If Ohtani can personally command so much money, the team he plays for should be able to cash in big as well.

According to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, the Angels earned somewhere between $10MM and $20MM per year in “Ohtani-related advertising, promotions, [and] marketing revenue.” Nightengale believes that number was even higher, claiming Ohtani “brought in $25 million a year.” Both reporters suggest the Dodgers could double that revenue, thanks to their higher level of popularity, both locally and across the globe. At the high end of that estimation, the Dodgers would earn back more than half of Ohtani’s annual salary, and the team is surely hoping he will continue to bring extra value to the franchise long after his ten-year deal is complete.

On that note, it’s worth acknowledging that although the Dodgers are regularly big spenders, their front office has demonstrated a keen ability to get the best bang for its buck. While some high-spending teams have crashed and burned in recent years, the Dodgers have made the playoffs in 11 straight seasons, winning ten NL West division titles in that time. They have won over 100 games in four of the last five years, and the only year they didn’t, the shortened 2020 campaign, they went 43-17 (.717, a 116-win pace) en route to a World Series championship. This team spends in abundance, but they don’t spend frivolously. If the Dodgers are paying Ohtani $700MM, it’s because they think he’s worth even more, and they haven’t given us any reason to doubt their accounting so far.

In other Ohtani news, Jack Harris of the L.A. Times points out that the signing has not yet been made official. However, that doesn’t mean the deal is at risk of falling through. Ohtani himself has already confirmed the agreement, and it’s hard to imagine his physical would hold up the deal; the Dodgers already know he is recovering from his second UCL procedure and won’t pitch in 2024. Instead, Harris suggests that the Dodgers are still figuring out their corresponding 40-man roster move. The club’s roster is currently full, so they will need to make a trade or designate someone for assignment in order to finalize Ohtani’s contract. What’s more, they also need to free up a roster spot for veteran reliever Joe Kelly, whose one-year, $8MM contract has not been finalized either. Expect a trade or a roster move in the coming days.

Breslow: Red Sox Will Be “Aggressive” In Search For Rotation Upgrades

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New Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has a tall task ahead of him, trying to bring a fifth-place club back into contention in a stacked AL East. Perhaps the hardest part of his job will be improving a starting rotation that finished with a bottom-ten ERA and FanGraphs WAR last season. Indeed, while the Red Sox have starting pitching depth, their rotation has too many question marks and not enough top-end talent.

Chris Sale is a lock for the 2024 rotation. So is 24-year-old Brayan Bello, who pitched to a 4.24 ERA in 28 starts last year. After that, the Red Sox have four more experienced arms who will stretch out to start this winter but could move into a bullpen role at any time: Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock. All four have made at least ten starts and at least ten relief appearances over the past two years. With a rotation led by an aging, oft-injured veteran followed by a still-developing young starter and four guys who have bounced in and out of bullpen roles the past years, it’s clear the Red Sox could use a lot more stability and at least one front-line pitcher.

It’s not surprising to hear Breslow call rotation upgrades his top priority as the Red Sox navigate the offseason (links via Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive.com). Breslow expressed optimism about Sale’s health, at least publicly voicing confidence that the lefty could hold up over a full, healthy season in 2024. Of course, that’s quite a charitable outlook for a pitcher who’s totaled just 151 innings over the past four seasons.

Granted, 102 2/3 of those frames came in 2023, when Sale worked to a respectable 4.30 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates of 29.4% and 6.8%, respectively. But Sale still missed two months last summer with a shoulder injury, and in the three seasons prior he underwent Tommy John surgery, suffered a stress fracture in his ribcage, broke his wrist in bicycling accident and sustained a broken a pinkie finger on his pitching hand upon being struck by a comeback liner. The Sox don’t have much choice but to hope Sale is healthy this year — he’s entering the final season of his five-year, $145MM contract — but recent history is not on their side, regardless of whatever optimism the team’s brass wants to forecast.

Even if the Sox were able to somehow manifest a 32-start season from Sale, there’d be need to further solidify the group. For his part, Breslow pledged to be “as aggressive as we possibly can” to fill the rotation (link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic), be it via free agency or trade. Boston has already been linked to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery and Seth Lugo in free agency. McCaffrey indicates that the Sox had an initial Zoom meeting with Yamamoto’s camp (as has been standard for interested teams thus far) but adds that a team official declined to state whether the Red Sox were in position for a forthcoming in-person sitdown with the NPB ace.

Breslow’s pledge to be as aggressive as possible is sensible for a team with a projected payroll ($172MM, per Roster Resource) that’s more than $10MM shy of their end-of-season levels and a whopping $64MM short of their franchise-record Opening Day mark of $236MM. That said, it’s also somewhat at odds with prior reporting on Boston’s rotation search. McAdam reported last month that the Sox have a preference for the trade market before free agency, notably specifying that at that point, they had not yet been active in the market for Dylan Cease.

The previously mentioned piece from McCaffrey quotes Breslow in acknowledging that the Sox will have to “be willing to give up position player capital” in order to bolster the starting staff, though McCaffrey notes that the Sox aren’t likely to trade top-end prospects for pitchers with only one year of club control remaining. That’ll make names like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and division foe Tyler Glasnow particularly difficult to obtain. And just yesterday, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that Boston prefers to avoid free agents who’ve rejected a qualifying offer.

There’s room to be aggressive within a fairly measured set of free-agent and trade targets, but whether avoiding qualified free agents and one-year rentals is truly acting “as aggressive as we possibly can” is up for debate, at the very least. It’s understandable that Breslow, particularly in his first season on the job, might not want to recklessly spend and saddle the club with a long-term contract or deplete the farm system he’s still learning, but imposing those limitations on his front office only makes the goal of bettering the starting staff in a meaningful way all the more daunting.

Of course, the goal in the long term is to better the organization’s ability to develop its own pitchers. To that end, the Red Sox announced yesterday that they’ve hired Twins minor league pitching coordinator Justin Willard as their new director of pitching.

“We’re really excited to bring him on board,” Breslow said (relayed by Cotillo). “Someone that comes with a pretty strong track record of pitching development. We’ve been mindful of what Minnesota’s done over the last few years in the development of some of their guys. We feel really lucky, really fortunate.”

The Twins have had some success stories with late-round starters, as both Bailey Ober and Louie Varland have reached the Majors and held their own (a good bit more than that in the case of Ober, a 12th-rounder). The Twins’ bullpen has seen multiple names emerge from within the system as well, headlined by closer Jhoan Duran and setup man Griffin Jax.

Willard will join newly hired pitching coach Andrew Bailey in working with Breslow and the rest of the Boston baseball ops and player development staff to hopefully optimize the Sox’ pitching development systems. While each of Bello, Houck and Crawford has had some big league success, they’re all still relatively inexperienced. The Red Sox have regularly relied on free agency and the trade market to round out the pitching staff over the past decade, but they’ve struggled to supplement those high-profile additions (e.g. Sale, Rick Porcello, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi) with cost-effective arms produced by their own system.

The Opener: Winter Meetings, Draft Lottery, Fedde

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As the Winter Meetings carry on, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball:

1. The Winter Meetings continue

While plenty of updates and rumors came out of the Winter Meetings on Monday, we have still yet to see a major signing. However, with new reports that teams are interested in top-50 free agents Matt Chapman (Cubs), Jordan Hicks (Astros, Rangers, Cardinals, and Orioles), Seth Lugo (Braves, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox), and Jack Flaherty (Pirates), perhaps that’s about to change.

Wade Miley’s one-year, $8.5MM guarantee from the Brewers has been the largest free agent contract signed at the Winter Meetings so far, but that’s unlikely to remain the case for long.

2. The draft lottery is coming up

The MLB draft lottery will take place this afternoon at 4:30 pm CT as part of the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee. All 18 teams that missed the postseason in 2023 will have a chance to win one of the top six selections in next year’s first-year player draft, although the teams with the three worst records – the Athletics, the Royals, and the Rockies – have the best odds of claiming one of the top picks.

Complete odds for the draft lottery can be found here.

3. Where will Erick Fedde land?

On Monday afternoon, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that former MLB pitcher and 2023 KBO MVP Erick Fedde was nearing a two-year deal with an unspecified MLB team. Later that day, Feinsand added that there were, in fact, two teams in the running for Fedde’s services – the Mets and the White Sox – and the 30-year-old righty was expected to finalize a contract with one of those two clubs as early as today.

Feinsand reports that the deal will be in the two-year, $10MM range, and if so, Fedde could surpass Wade Miley for the largest free agent guarantee of the Winter Meetings – although it’s hard to imagine he would hold that distinction for long.

Picollo: Royals Have At Least $30 Million To Spend This Offseason

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The Royals have been relatively active over the first month of the offseason, inking one of the four free agent position players to sign so far this winter and trading for two pitchers ahead of the non-tender deadline in November. Still, the front office has plenty of work to do if the team is going to improve upon a 56-106 record in 2024. On Monday, Royals general manager J.J. Picollo spoke with members of the media at the Winter Meetings to discuss the team’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Most notably, Picollo revealed that he has at least $30MM to spend in free agency (as relayed by Jaylon Thompson of The Kansas City Star). That could bring the team’s 2024 payroll just over $100MM, a total the Royals have not surpassed since 2019. What’s more, the executive suggested he could spend beyond that estimate for the right players.

Presumably, Picollo will use most of his budget to improve a pitching staff that finished second-last in the AL in ERA, SIERA, and FanGraphs WAR last season. He specified that he would like to acquire one starting pitcher and two relievers, one of whom would hopefully step into the closer’s role.

While Picollo didn’t identify any particular targets, he stated on MLB Network Radio that the Royals “can be competitive” in the price range several free agent starting pitchers have already signed for. Presumably, he’s not referring to Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, but instead the next tier down. That means pitchers like Kyle Gibson, Kenta Maeda, Luis Severino, Nick Martinez, and Lance Lynn, all of whom signed for an annual average salary in the $11MM to $13MM range.

During his appearance on MLB Network Radio, Picollo also touched on the non-monetary side of free agent negotiations. Factors beyond money are particularly relevant for a rebuilding team like the Royals, as they try to convince free agents they are an attractive destination despite their recent string of losing seasons. “When you’re recruiting free agents they want to know what your plan is,” he said. “So our process has got to be pretty deep and thorough because we’re really selling those players on what we can do for them.”

One name on many fans’ minds is Zack Greinke, who became a free agent following the 2023 season. According to Picollo (and as relayed by Thompson), the Royals are still waiting to hear if the six-time All-Star plans to retire this winter. While he isn’t the star he used to be during his first run with Kansas City, Greinke has been a reliable innings eater for the Royals over the last two seasons, pitching 279 1/3 innings with a 4.38 ERA. Given his popularity within the organization, his solid performance over the past two years, and the team’s lack of pitching depth, one would think the Royals would be interested if Greinke decided to pitch again in 2024, but Picollo stopped short of confirming as much.

He did, however, confirm that MJ Melendez will continue to play the outfield next season. The 25-year-old was once one of the top catching prospects in baseball, but he transitioned to a full-time outfield role this past season. His defense never stood out behind the plate, where he was blocked in the Royals organization by Salvador Perez anyhow. With the emergence of backup catcher Freddy Fermin, and with the way Melendez improved at the plate after he stopped catching in 2023, it doesn’t come as much of a surprise that the Royals are going to keep him in the outfield going forward.

Finally, Picollo revealed that first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino is ready to return to normal baseball activities over the winter after missing the final four months of the 2023 season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder. According to Thompson, the team will provide further information on his status during today’s media session.

East Notes: Rays, Phillies, Nationals

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Several Rays players have come up in trade rumors recently, with the team currently set to run a payroll well north of $100MM, far higher than the $70MM to $90MM range they have sat in for the past three seasons. Among those trade candidates are Tyler Glasnow, whose $25MM salary makes him far and away the highest-paid player on the roster, and Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes, each of whom is sure to earn a sizeable raise in arbitration this winter.

However, president of baseball operations Erik Neander threw some cold water on the rumors surrounding Arozarena and Paredes on Monday. While the Rays seem to be actively shopping Glasnow, the executive clarified that the team is merely listening to offers for the left fielder and third baseman (per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Fielding trade proposals is simply standard operating procedure and a matter of due diligence for an MLB front office, especially for a team like Tampa Bay that is often highly active on the trade market.

That doesn’t mean either player won’t be traded this offseason, but it’s a meaningful distinction nonetheless. Arozarena and Paredes are still an excellent value in their early years of arbitration, and the Rays aren’t desperate to get either one off the books.

More news from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • Turning to the NL East, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Phillies are planning to pick up a bullpen piece this offseason, and they’re also considering an outfield acquisition. It’s no surprise the Phillies are looking for another reliever, in light of Craig Kimbrel’s departure in free agency, but the note about an outfielder is slightly more revealing; after all, the three primary outfielders from the team’s 2023 postseason roster are all set to return in 2024. Indeed, with Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and Johan Rojas already on the roster, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski would only add another outfielder if he finds the “right fit” (as relayed by Coffey). Perhaps that means another impact bat to take over full-time duties in left field while Marsh platoons with Rojas in center.
  • While the Nationals aren’t likely to contend in 2024, president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo is still planning to improve the on-field product. “I think we’re going to be aggressive again this year looking for a bat that can play the corner infield, be it third base or first base or DH or left field, or a combination of all three of those,” the executive told reporters during the Winter Meetings. “And then we’ll resort back to getting more pitching” (per Mark Zuckerman of MASN). Of particular interest, Rizzo also mentioned that the team is prepared to offer multi-year contracts “in the right situation,” which isn’t always common for teams in the middle of a rebuild. Over the previous three offseasons, the Nationals have only signed one free agent to a multi-year deal: Trevor Williams, who signed a two-year, $13MM deal last December.

Mariners Looking To Add Multiple Position Players

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After letting Teoscar Hernández enter free agency without so much as a qualifying offer and subsequently trading both Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic, the Mariners have lost three hitters who provided above-average offensive production in regular playing time last season. Suárez and Hernández finished second and third on the team in RBI (trailing only superstar Julio Rodríguez), while Kelenic led the team in slugging percentage and isolated power until he fractured his foot in mid-July.

The team’s best options at third base and the corner outfield positions now include Luis Urías, Cade Marlowe, Dominic Canzone, and Taylor Trammell, three unproven 26-year-old outfielders and a former top prospect who struggled tremendously in 2023. Those four combined to hit just .204 last season with a .666 OPS and 87 wRC+ in 515 PA. Veteran utility players Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore can also cover the outfield and infield corners, but neither is much more than the short side of a platoon given their career numbers against right-handed pitching.

With all that said, it’s no surprise Seattle is looking to add multiple position players this offseason, according to manager Scott Servais (per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). After all, the Mariners are ostensibly competing with the Astros and Rangers for the AL West crown, but if they’re going to win in 2024, they’ll need an offense to support their deep and talented pitching staff.

The Mariners are not thought to be in the running for Shohei Ohtani, but they could be a good fit for almost every other impact bat on the free agent market. They have also been linked to various trade candidates, including, most recently, Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes of the Rays.

It remains unclear how much money president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has to work with this winter, although he has managed to clear a significant amount of salary and he expects the payroll to increase in 2024 (per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). It’s also hard to guess what trade chips the Mariners will be willing to part with. Entering the offseason, it seemed almost inevitable that they would trade one of their young starting pitchers to improve the offense. However, after sending Marco Gonzales to Atlanta as part of the Kelenic trade, Seattle has less of a logjam in the rotation, and Dipoto says the chances of the team trading another pitcher are “less likely” than they were before (per Jude).

That said, if the Mariners are serious about trading for Arozarena, Paredes, or another middle-of-the-order bat, they’ll need to make a pretty sweet offer, and luckily they still have an abundance of arms to deal from. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller would make a strong starting five to open the season, but eventually Robbie Ray will return from Tommy John rehab and Emerson Hancock will force his way back to the majors. Too much pitching depth is never a bad thing, yet the Mariners might be wise to trade from an area of strength to bolster their depleted lineup.

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