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NL Central Notes: Davis, India, Brewers

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Former first-overall pick Henry Davis will return to his natural position behind the dish in 2024, says Pirates manager Derek Shelton (as relayed by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Davis began his professional career as a backstop but transitioned into an outfield role this past year. Throughout his first few months of big league action, he started 49 games in right field and played just two innings at catcher.

Davis has never been the strongest defender, and he lost out on playing time in 2023 to defensive wizard Austin Hedges, fellow young backstop Endy Rodríguez, and breakout backup catcher Jason Delay. All three provided Pittsburgh with positive defensive value behind the plate, per FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, and with so many capable catchers on the roster, it’s not hard to see why the Pirates were hesitant to drop Davis into the mix. Moreover, Shelton also mentioned that a right hand strain in mid-August prevented the 24-year-old from getting a chance to catch at the end of the year.

However, Davis will be more valuable and productive for the Pirates long-term if he can stick at catcher; if he reaches his offensive upside, he could be one of the best-hitting backstops in the game. For precisely that reason, catching will be the “focal point” for Davis in 2024, per Shelton. He could still see time at DH or in right field, but his manager is planning to give him a legitimate opportunity to develop his catching skills at the big league level.

In other news from around the NL Central…

  • After signing top prospect Jackson Chourio to a record-breaking contract extension, the Brewers are listening to trade offers for the rest of their young outfielders, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While Heyman doesn’t go into much detail about any potential trade offers on the table, he names Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Tyrone Taylor and Blake Perkins as the cost-controlled outfielders Milwaukee could be willing to sell. With Christian Yelich a lock in left field and Chourio the favorite to start in center, the Brewers have a bevy of talented outfielders and only one more spot to fill in the starting lineup. Given the team’s need for an impact bat and starting pitching depth, the Brewers could trade from an area of strength to address those concerns.
  • The Reds are not planning to trade second baseman Jonathan India this winter, according to president of baseball operations Nick Krall (per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). However, they could give him a chance to play a new position as the team attempts to break up a logjam in the infield. Specifically, Krall suggests that India could “maybe” play some first base in 2024. The 2021 NL Rookie of the Year has not played a defensive position aside from second base since the 2019 Arizona Fall League season, and he has never played first in his professional career. However, with Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, Noelvi Marte at third base, and Matt McLain looking like a good fit at second – not to mention Spencer Steer, who has played all four infield positions in his pro career – the Reds will need to get creative to fit India into the lineup. Cincinnati has no shortage of options at first base either, including Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Tyler Stephenson, but the more flexible India can be, the better his chances of earning regular playing time.

Jung Hoo Lee, Woo Suk Go Officially Posted

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11:30am: Lee and reliever Woo Suk Go have both been officially posted, per Alden González of ESPN. The posting window for each starts tomorrow at 7am Central and goes until 4pm on January 3. It was reported a few weeks ago that Go would likely be posted for MLB clubs.

2:12am: The Kiwoom Heroes of the KBO will post Jung Hoo Lee today, the team announced (as reported by Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News). MLB clubs will have a 30-day window to negotiate with the South Korean star, beginning on Tuesday, December 5 at 7:00 am CT.

Lee is expected to sign a multi-year deal, with the MLBTR prediction coming in at five years and $50MM. In addition, the MLB team that signs him will owe the Heroes a posting fee, calculated as 20% of the first $25MM in his contract, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of any additional salary. Therefore, if Lee signs for $50MM exactly, his posting fee will total another $9.375MM. That’s no small number, but it’s hard to imagine it would scare off any serious contenders for his services.

After all, Lee is widely considered one of the best position players available in free agency; he ranked 15th on the MLBTR Top 50 Free Agents list. While it can be difficult to predict how hitters from foreign leagues will adjust to MLB pitching, the young outfielder’s resume is impossible to ignore.

A five-time winner of the Golden Glove Award, given annually to the top overall player at each position, the 25-year-old has slashed .340/.407/.491 with 65 home runs and 69 stolen bases across seven seasons in the KBO. He plays all three outfield positions, including center field, but it is his hit tool that has already brought him so much success in his young career. Lee has never hit below .318 in a season, batting as high as .360 in his 2022 MVP campaign.

Even in an injury-shortened 2023 season, Lee posted an .860 OPS and a 139 wRC+ in 86 games. Some MLB suitors might be concerned by the ankle injury that cost him the final few months of the KBO calendar, but there is currently no reason to believe he won’t be ready for spring training. Thus, he will surely draw widespread interest over the next 30 days given his youth and consistently excellent performance throughout his professional career. As of mid-November, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that 20 different teams were keeping tabs on Lee. Those known to be interested include the Yankees, Giants, Padres, and Mets.

The Opener: Winter Meetings, Chourio, Miley

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With the Winter Meetings underway in Nashville, Tennessee, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball today:

1. The Winter Meetings get rolling

Outside of one major trade on Sunday night – the Braves acquired Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners – the lead-in to MLB’s Winter Meetings was relatively quiet. That was to be expected, however. The first day is often the slowest, as executives and agents are just arriving and getting ready for the busy week ahead.

Now, with the calendar flipped to Monday, perhaps the hot stove will really start to sizzle. Forty-three of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents are still unsigned, and none of Anthony Franco’s Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates have yet been dealt. It’s hard to believe that will remain the case for long.

2. Brewers to officially announce Jackson Chourio’s contract extension

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Brewers will host a press conference today during the Winter Meetings to officially announce Jackson Chourio’s record-smashing contract extension.

The 19-year-old top prospect will make a minimum of $82MM over the next eight years and can earn as much as $142.5MM over ten if the Brewers exercise both of their team options and Chourio maxes out all his incentives. It is far and away the largest contract ever signed by a player before making his MLB debut.

Presumably, the Brewers plan to put Chourio on the 2024 Opening Day roster, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him starting in center the next time they take the field. The big question now is if the Brewers will keep spending to put together a more competitive team around their young phenom.

3. Will Wade Miley be the next free agent to sign?

In more Brewers news, the team is reportedly close to re-signing veteran starter Wade Miley. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to surmise that a deal was on the horizon, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Sunday evening that the two sides were “moving closer” to an agreement.

No figures have yet been reported, but it’s worth mentioning that Miley rejected his side of a $10MM mutual option with Milwaukee earlier this offseason, instead collecting a $1MM buyout. Presumably, the new contract they are discussing will guarantee him a bigger payday than the one he turned down.

Dodgers Could Be Looking To Upgrade At Shortstop

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While the Dodgers went 100-62 last season en route to their tenth division title in the past 11 years, even they weren’t without their weak spots. One such weakness was at shortstop, where the Dodgers finished among the bottom five NL teams in OPS, wRC+, and FanGraphs WAR.

Gavin Lux, the presumptive starter at the position, suffered a season-ending injury in spring training, and his primary replacement, the veteran Miguel Rojas, had his worst offensive season since 2016. Versatile defenders Mookie Betts and Chris Taylor filled in capably from time to time, but neither is a full-time shortstop and ultimately, for lack of better options, the Dodgers were left counting on an aging Rojas far too often.

Rojas is under contract through 2024, but the Dodgers will ask him to play a backup role going forward – the role he was supposed to play last season before Lux tore his ACL. For his part, Lux expects to be back on the field next year, and the Dodgers expect him to be their everyday shortstop.

During the General Managers Meetings in early November, Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes told reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) the team was optimistic Lux would be ready to resume his role as the primary shortstop in 2024. The exec repeated the message just before the Winter Meetings, telling members of the media, “Our thought is that he’s going to be our shortstop” (as relayed by Cary Osborne of Dodger Insider).

Lux was once a top-100 prospect, and he finally started to live up to his top-prospect billing in 2022, when he posted a 114 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR in 129 games. If he can hit like that and play a serviceable shortstop in 2024, the Dodgers will be thrilled. However, that’s a lot to ask for from a largely unproven player entering his age-26 season and coming off a major injury. What’s more, Lux has only started 50 games at shortstop in his major league career, and he hasn’t been a primary shortstop since his 2019 season in the minor leagues. Even if he is fully healthy in 2024, he’s far from a sure thing.

As for the team’s other internal options? They’ve already tried them all. Betts and Taylor can cover shortstop on occasion, but they aren’t the answer, and besides, they’re needed at other positions. Then there’s Rojas, who just can’t hit enough anymore to hold down an everyday role.

With all that in mind, it’s not too surprising the Dodgers are considering an external fix. Per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, the Dodgers “could upgrade” at shortstop, according to “a person familiar with the situation.”

Ardaya mentions Brewers shortstop Willy Adames, who the Dodgers were interested in last offseason, as a potential trade candidate. Indeed, the 28-year-old would certainly be an upgrade. Even in a down year last season, he was close to league average at the plate and elite in the field, hitting for a 94 wRC+ and recording 16 Outs Above Average. Over the past three years, Adames ranks ninth among primary shortstops with 11.3 fWAR.

However, after Adames, it’s hard to identify other shortstops who would count as an upgrade. Free agent Tim Anderson is a former All-Star, but he’s coming off a dreadful season in which he hit .245/.286/.296 with just one home run. He also made 14 errors and posted negative numbers by nearly every defensive metric. Fellow free agent Amed Rosario is coming off a disappointing season of his own, and although he played better after a midseason trade to the Dodgers, a big part of that was because the Dodgers decided to use him primarily at second base. Meanwhile, the next best trade candidate might be Jorge Mateo, who has become the odd man out in a crowded Orioles infield. However, while he boasts a slick glove, he had even worse offensive numbers than Rojas last season.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto To Meet With Teams Within The Next Week

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Japanese superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto is getting closer to Major League Baseball, both literally and figuratively. According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the 25-year-old right-hander is coming to the United States “within the next week” to begin in-person meetings with his MLB suitors.

As previously reported by Andy Martino of SNY, Yamamoto planned to hold initial meetings with all interested teams over the phone or Zoom before traveling to North America to meet with the finalists for his services. Presumably, the phone call stage of the process is wrapping up, which suggests the star pitcher has already begun to narrow down his options. It remains unclear how many teams Yamamoto will be speaking with, although Puma reports that the Mets are one of the clubs to secure a meeting with the five-time NPB All-Star.

Martino’s initial report indicated that Yamamoto would not sign until after the Winter Meetings, and Puma’s update seems to confirm that timeline. While the righty must sign before his posting window closes on January 4 (if he is going to sign with an MLB team at all), that still gives him just over a month to make his choice.

There might not be much news about Yamamoto during the Winter Meetings, but still, it will be interesting to see how his timeline affects the rest of the starting pitching market. Plenty of teams are pursuing the righty, and they might prefer to wait until he signs elsewhere before turning to Plan B. Similarly, frontline starters like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery might be waiting for Yamamoto to set the market, which could make this a quiet week on the starting pitching front. Then again, perhaps teams with starters to trade will take advantage of such a lull; Tyler Glasnow of the Rays and Dylan Cease of the White Sox are already generating interest as the Winter Meetings get underway.

Trade Notes: Cease, Glasnow, Braves

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The free agent market for pitchers has been much more active than for position players so far this winter. Seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed new deals, and six have been pitchers: Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo López, Nick Martinez, and Luis Severino. Moreover, 11 different pitchers have already signed for $10MM or more; no position player has crossed the eight-figure threshold.

Still, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto unlikely to sign during the Winter Meetings, it’s possible the market for starting pitching could slow down, as suitors wait for Yamamoto to make his decision and other frontline starters (namely Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery) wait for Yamamoto to set the going rate. With that in mind, perhaps the various starting pitchers on the trade block will draw even more attention during the next four days.

Indeed, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the market for 2022 Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease is “robust,” noting that the Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles – among other teams – are involved in trade talks with the White Sox. Further clubs that have been linked to Cease in recent days include the Mets and Cardinals.

Last week, Morosi reported that discussions around Cease had “intensified” and suggested a deal before the Winter Meetings was “increasingly possible.” However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic threw cold water on that rumor, reporting that White Sox general manager Chris Getz would most likely wait to trade Cease until more of the top free agent starters were off the board. While no further frontline starters have signed in the last few days, Morosi’s report about the robust market for Cease at the Winter Meetings is enough to rekindle speculation about a potential trade in the coming days. After all, if the White Sox have their eye on any particular trade chips, they’d be smart to strike before those chips are spent on Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber instead.

Some more trade-related news from around baseball…

  • Speaking of Glasnow, the Rays starter is generating a great deal of interest, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While it shouldn’t come as any surprise that plenty of teams would love the right-hander in their rotation – he had a 3.53 ERA and 3.08 SIERA in 21 starts last season – it is noteworthy that he’s drawing so much interest so soon. His $25MM salary for the 2024 season is much more than Cease or Bieber will earn in arbitration, and there are plenty of free agent pitchers available who will only cost money, rather than money and prospects. Evidently, however, his talent is enough to outweigh his price tag.
  • Speaking on a Zoom call with members of the media, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos emphasized that the team is not planning to trade any of its young players signed to long-term extensions (as relayed by Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). While Anthopoulos qualified his statement with the caveat of “special circumstances,” the executive stressed with “absolute, fierce confidence” that he is “extremely unlikely” to trade anyone from his cost-controlled young core. That group includes Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Spencer Strider, and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., all of whom are under team control through at least the 2027 season.

The Opener: Go, Nevin, Glasnow

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With Thanksgiving Day drawing near, here are three things we’re keeping an eye on around baseball:

1. Will more international players be posted soon? 

On Tuesday, the LG Twins of the KBO agreed to post right-handed pitcher Woo-Suk Go. The Korean posting system is similar to the Japanese posting system (by which Yoshinobu Yamamoto was recently made available) in that MLB teams have a 45-day window to negotiate with the player after he is officially posted. However, there is no word yet as to when the Twins will initiate the process and open Go’s window.

Shota Imanaga, one of MLBTR’s top ten free agents this winter, is another international player whose posting timeline remains unclear. Earlier this month, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that the Yokohama DeNA BayStars would post Imanaga on Monday, November 13. Needless to say, that date has come and gone, and the southpaw remains unavailable to MLB clubs. It’s possible that Imanaga and the BayStars are waiting for fellow NPB All-Star Yamamoto to sign and set the market, in which case it seems more likely that Go, a reliever, will be the next international player to be posted.

2. Will Phil Nevin coach in 2024?

Yesterday morning, the Padres announced the hiring of Mike Shildt as their new manager. The former Cardinals’ skipper beat out various other candidates for the role, including Padres bench coach Ryan Flaherty and Angels infield coach Benji Gil. However, the most high-profile finalist who lost out on the job was former Angels manager Phil Nevin. Eight different teams replaced their skippers this offseason, but Nevin, who spent just under two years at the helm in LA, did not land a new managerial gig.

However, if he is interested in returning to the dugout, there are still coaching vacancies around the league. Indeed, per Mike Puma of the New York Post, Nevin is in the mix to be the Mets’ bench coach under new manager Carlos Mendoza. The two worked together previously with the Yankees, and Nevin told the Post, “If they were to ask, I would do anything for Carlos.”

3. Is a Tyler Glasnow trade on the horizon?

Plenty of names have been floated in trade rumors this offseason, but perhaps none is as sure to be moved as Tyler Glasnow. The 30-year-old will earn $25MM this season, after which he is set to hit the open market. Given his high salary and impending free agency, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Rays will “definitely” trade him this winter, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is similarly confident that Glasnow will be pitching for a new team in 2024.

With the free agent market for top-of-the-rotation arms potentially slowing down until Yamamoto signs, perhaps the trade market will start to heat up. The Rays would surely like some additional payroll clarity as soon as possible, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Glasnow traded sooner rather than later.

The Opener: Lynn, Yamamoto, MLBTR Chat

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As the offseason continues, here are three things for MLBTR readers to watch for today:

1. Lance Lynn to finalize deal with Cardinals:

Veteran starter Lance Lynn will take his physical today (per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), and barring any setbacks, he will officially rejoin the Cardinals, the team that selected him in the first round of the 2008 draft. Following the least productive season of his 12-year major league tenure, it’s no surprise that Lynn wanted to return to the homer-suppressing ballpark where he saw so much success in the early days of his career. The Cardinals, meanwhile, desperately needed to bolster their starting rotation, and signing Lynn is the first step in that direction. Other names the team has been linked to include Sonny Gray,  Jordan Montgomery (another former Cardinal), and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has officially been posted:

As of 7:00 am CT this morning, MLB clubs can begin negotiations with Yamamoto, who was posted by the Orix Buffaloes on Monday. The posting window will last 45 days, which means it will expire at 4:00 pm CT on January 4. Now that teams can begin discussions with the NPB superstar, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggests that the other top arms remaining on the market, namely Montgomery, Gray, and Blake Snell, could wait until Yamamoto signs before agreeing to deals of their own. Yamamoto is expected to sign for more guaranteed money than any other pitcher (aside from Shohei Ohtani) this winter, so it stands to reason that Montgomery, Gray, and Snell would like to wait for him to set the market. The Phillies, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Cardinals are just some of the many teams that have been linked to the star pitcher, who will not turn 26 until next August.

3. MLBTR Chat today

Two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have come off the board this week – Aaron Nola and Reynaldo López – and with Yamamoto officially on the market, it looks like the hot stove is finally starting to heat up. MLBTR’s Steve Adams will host a chat with readers today at 1:00 pm CT to take questions about free agent signings, potential trades, and more. You can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live and read a transcript once the chat is complete.

The Opener: Nola, Yamamoto, Hall Of Fame Ballot

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As another week of the offseason kicks off, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball:

1. Phillies to hold press conference for Aaron Nola

The Phillies will host a press conference this afternoon at 12:30 PM CT to officially announce the re-signing of All-Star right-hander Aaron Nola. On Sunday, the two sides came to terms on a seven-year, $172MM contract to keep the longest-tenured Phillie in red pinstripes through his age-37 campaign. The deal marks the first nine-figure transaction of the offseason, and Nola becomes the first of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents to come off the board.

While his $24.57MM average annual salary is merely a few hundred thousand dollars lower than the $25MM figure we predicted at MLBTR, his total guaranteed salary is higher. What’s more, Nola reportedly took a hometown discount (per Jon Heyman of the New York Post), turning down even higher offers from other teams to stay with the club that drafted him seventh overall in 2014. Thus, it will be interesting to see how his deal influences the market for other starting pitchers in a similar tier, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto to be posted this week

Speaking of Yamamoto, the Orix Buffaloes are expected to post the righty sometime this week, kicking off the 45-day window MLB clubs will have to negotiate with the 25-year-old superstar. Buster Olney of ESPN suggests the three-time NPB Triple Crown winner will be posted as early as today, and the 45-day countdown will officially begin on Tuesday.

Yamamoto is widely considered the best arm available in free agency, and it would have been reasonable for a top pitcher like Nola to wait for him to set the market at some point in the next six weeks. However, it turns out Nola was the first domino to fall, so perhaps we’ll see the other clubs that were in the mix for his services pivot to Yamamoto instead.

3. Hall of Fame ballot to be revealed

The 2024 BBWAA ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame will be unveiled today. Returning names will include Todd Helton (6th year on the ballot), Billy Wagner (9th), Andruw Jones (7th), Gary Sheffield (10th and final), Alex Rodriguez (3rd), Manny Ramirez (8th), Omar Vizquel (7th), Andy Pettitte (6th), and Bobby Abreu (5th). Helton and Wagner each earned more than two-thirds of the vote on the previous ballot, and each has a solid chance to earn the necessary 75% of the vote this time around. Meanwhile, Sheffield will hope to jump from 55% to 75% in his final year on the ballot.

Newcomers to the ballot will include Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, and José Bautista. Beltré is a likely Hall of Famer and has a chance to enter on his first ballot. Mauer and Utley aren’t as likely to reach the threshold for enshrinement right away, but they will hope to begin drumming up support for an eventual election. Finally, Wright, Colon, Holliday, and Bautista are long shots to enter the Hall, but with their various accolades and career accomplishments, they should earn enough support to remain on the ballot.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Victor Robles, Tanner Rainey

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The Nationals have avoided arbitration with outfielder Victor Robles and right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey, the team announced. Robles, 26, was eligible for his final year of arbitration, while Rainey, 30, will be arbitration-eligible one last time next winter.

Rainey will earn $1.5MM in 2024 (per Andrew Golden of The Washington Post), which doesn’t come as any surprise; he made the same salary this past season in a year almost completely lost to injury, and arbitration-eligible players rarely receive raises after lost seasons. No dollar value has been reported for Robles, although he was projected to earn $2.7MM in arbitration. The center fielder made $2.325MM last year, and the Nationals turned down a $3.3MM club option for his services in 2024. His new deal most likely falls somewhere in between those two figures.

Around the end of the regular season, Washington agreed to a contract with veteran utilityman Ildemaro Vargas, who was eligible for his second year of arbitration. The team now has four players who could still go to arbitration this winter: outfielder Lane Thomas, closer Kyle Finnegan, set-up man Hunter Harvey, and former top prospect Luis Garcia. The Nationals have already DFA’d several arb-eligible players ahead of the non-tender deadline on November 17, including first baseman Dominic Smith, right-handed reliever Victor Arano, and utility player Michael Chavis.

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