Jeter Downs

Nationals Claim Jeter Downs, Designate Reed Garrett

By Darragh McDonald | December 22, 2022 at 12:35pm CDT

The Nationals announced they have claimed infielder Jeter Downs off waivers from the Red Sox. Downs had been recently designated for assignment by Boston. To create space on the 40-man roster, the Nats designated reliever Reed Garrett for assignment. Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post. reported the claim of Downs prior to the official announcement.

Downs, 24, is perhaps best known as one of the key pieces of the trade that sent Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers in February of 2020. Downs went to the Red Sox alongside Alex Verdugo and Connor Wong. At the time, Downs was a highly-touted prospect, featuring on the back end of Baseball America’s top 100 list in both 2020 and 2021.

Unfortunately, his stock has completely nosedived in the past two years. After the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in 2020, Downs spent 2021 in Triple-A, getting into 99 games on the year. His power and speed were still evident, as he hit 14 home runs and stole 18 bases. However, he struck out in 32.3% of his plate appearances and finished with a batting line of .190/.272/.333 for a wRC+ of 62.

2022 was an improvement but only slightly. His strikeout rate dropped but was still quite high at 29.6%. He added another 16 homers and swiped 18 more bags, but his batting line of .197/.316/.412 added up to a 95 wRC+. He also got into 14 MLB games but hit just .154/.171/.256 in that small sample, striking out in 51.2% of his trips to the plate.

The Sox gave up on him by designating him for assignment last week but the rebuilding Nats will give him a shot. He’s still only 24, was a top prospect less than two years ago and has two option years remaining. He also brings defensive versatility, having primarily played shortstop but also some second and third base.

The Nats will have a young middle infield consisting of CJ Abrams at shortstop and Luis Garcia at second. Third base figures to be manned by Jeimer Candelario, though he’s only on a one-year deal and could be dealt at midseason if he’s performing well. Carter Kieboom is also in the mix for work at the hot corner though he’s struggled in the big leagues so far and missed the 2022 season entirely due to Tommy John surgery. Veteran Ildemaro Vargas is also on hand as a utility option, though there are avenues there for Downs to work his way into the picture if he can get things back on track.

Garrett, 30 in January, he has limited MLB experience, getting into 13 games with the 2019 Tigers and another seven with the 2022 Nationals with a stint in Japan in between. He posted a 6.75 ERA in the big leagues this year but was much better in the minors. He logged 47 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 3.04 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 47.4% ground ball rate. The Nats will have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He still has a couple of option years remaining and had solid minor league numbers this year, which could lead to some interest from other clubs.

Red Sox Designate Jeter Downs For Assignment

By Darragh McDonald | December 15, 2022 at 1:55pm CDT

The Red Sox have officially announced their signing of outfielder Masataka Yoshida. To create space on the 40-man roster, infielder Jeter Downs was designated for assignment.

Despite making him a key piece of a franchise-altering trade, it seems the club has run out of patience with him. They will now have a week to trade him or put him on waivers. Despite the rough results in the past two seasons, it seems likely that some team would take a flier on him. He’s still only 24, was a top prospect less than two years ago and has two option years remaining. He also brings defensive versatility, having primarily played shortstop but also some second and third base.

For the Boston fans, trading away an elite talent like Betts was always going to be a bitter pill to swallow, but it seems to be getting worse with age. While Betts helped the Dodgers win the 2020 World Series, Verdugo seems to have settled in as an adequate but unexciting outfielder. Wong has yet to establish himself at the big league level and Downs is now potentially leaving the organization on a low note.

Red Sox Place Connor Seabold, Christian Arroyo On Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | July 9, 2022 at 5:26pm CDT

The Red Sox announced a series of moves, including the placement of right-hander Connor Seabold on the 15-day injured list and utilityman Christian Arroyo on the 10-day IL. Right-hander Phillips Valdez and infielder Jeter Downs were called up from Triple-A in corresponding moves. As reported earlier today, Boston also selected the contract of Kaleb Ort, while designating Michael Feliz for assignment.

Seabold has an extensor strain in his right forearm, which forced him out of last night’s game with the Yankees in the third inning. While extensor strains aren’t always a precursor to Tommy John surgery, any forearm-related injury is naturally a concern, and Seabold will undergo further examination before a recovery timeline is known.

With the injury bug taking a big bit out of the Sox rotation, Seabold was called up in late June and has made three starts. The results haven’t been pretty, as he has an 11.91 ERA over 11 1/3 innings — Seabold sandwiched a respectable one-run performance against the White Sox between a pair of seven-run blowouts to the Blue Jays and Yankees.

Chris Sale is slated to be activated from the IL on Tuesday, and the veteran southpaw will join a makeshift rotation of Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski and top prospect Brayan Bello. However, the Red Sox have more than an entire rotation’s worth of arms on the injured list, as Seabold joins Sale, Garrett Whitlock, Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and James Paxton. Eovaldi is tentatively set to return next weekend, but the Sox might have to wait until after the All-Star break to get any semblance of a healthy starting five.

The team will also lose bench depth, as the versatile Arroyo will miss time due to a left groin strain. Arroyo’s placement opens the door for Downs’ latest opportunity at the MLB level, as the star prospect made his big league debut with a single game earlier this season.

Downs has been on fire in the 14 Triple-A games since his return, as his offense has hugely improved since cutting down on his leg lift during his swing. (Hat tip to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.) His role on Boston’s active roster will be of some interest, as Downs has almost exclusively played shortstop this season, with only a single game at third base. Rafael Devers is currently battling a bad back, and with Downs now up, this could hint that the Sox are considering a precautionary IL placement for Devers. However, it is also possible Downs might get only another cup-of-coffee stint if Devers’ back heals up after a weekend off.

Big Hype Prospects: Cruz, Abrams, Volpe, Veen, Wiemer

By Brad Johnson 2 | June 24, 2022 at 6:50pm CDT

This week, we investigate a mix of prospects at a wide range of levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Oneil Cruz, 23, SS, Pirates (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 247 PA, 9 HR, 11 SB, .232/.336/.422

When Tim Dierkes suggested I run this column, Cruz was his first example of the type of player he wanted to see covered. I’d previously written a fantasy column about “Peripheral Prospects” in this same format covering lesser-known guys like Ken Waldichuk and Brett Kerry. It’s only fitting to touch upon Cruz one more time. While his Triple-A numbers don’t jump off the page, he eventually settled in to the level. Since early-May, he’s batted .280/.374/.520 with an 11.4 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. Reportedly, he was disappointed by his initial demotion, and it contributed to his April-long slump.

Since rejoining the Majors, Cruz is 4-for-18 with a stolen base. In four games, he’s already hit four balls over 100-mph, including two lasers over 110-mph. This is consistent with his track record. Cruz is built like a young Aaron Judge, and he hits the ball nearly as hard. His typical angle of contact is geared towards ground ball and line drive contact which could limit his home run production. When he does lift the ball, you can expect to see it soar. Anytime he’s in the lineup, Cruz is one of the most fascinating players in the league.

C.J. Abrams, 21, SS, Padres (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 151 PA, 7 HR, 10 SB, .314/.364/.507

Like Cruz, Abrams had a previous brief taste of the Majors and recently returned for four games. He’s 2-for-15 with one strikeout. Unlike Cruz, his exit velocities have been outright poor – just 81.8-mph. Abrams’ selection to the Padres roster followed on the heels of a particularly torrid multi-week stretch. He hit .398/.442/.519 over his last 95 Triple-A plate appearances. Included in the fun were four home runs, a 5.3 percent walk rate, and an 11.6 percent strikeout rate.

Such production indicated immediate readiness, especially for a prospect of Abrams’ caliber who scouts adore. If there’s a shortcoming in his profile, it’s that he doesn’t walk. It’s not necessarily an issue of discipline. He expands the zone in part because his speed has allowed him to still reach base in the minors. It’s possible he’ll learn to lay off marginal pitches in the Majors to improve his outcomes. If he does, he’ll flower into a high-quality leadoff hitter. There are still questions about his eventual defensive home – and not only because he has to share a field with Fernando Tatis Jr.

The worst-case scenario for Abrams is as an over-aggressive, contact-oriented slasher who plays all over the field. Between injuries and his incredible talent, we haven’t seen Abrams make many adjustments as a professional.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, Yankees (AA)
270 PA, 9 HR, 25 SB, .233/.326/.427

Over the offseason, I was virtually cornered by several Yankees fans who not-so-calmly explained that Volpe was the best prospect since Mike Trout. To the glee of everybody who loves to hate the Yankees, he performed particularly poorly until mid-May. Through May 17, he slashed a meager .170/.297/.330. Optimists cited four reasons he would rebound. First, the talent remained evident. He was working counts (13.8 percent walk rate). His .195 BABIP indicated poor luck. Lastly, he wasn’t the first prospect to wilt in chilly early-season weather.

As the calendar has heated up, so too has Volpe. He’s slashing .292/.356/.517 since May 18, a span of 132 plate appearances. He’s also putting more balls in play (6.8 percent walk rate, 15.9 percent strikeout rate) with a normal .319 BABIP. Volpe is on the shortlist for top prospect remaining in the minors. He’s also making a strong case for promotion to Triple-A – possibly by the end of this month.

Zac Veen, 20, OF, Rockies (A+)
258 PA, 8 HR, 25 SB, .259/.368/.440

The Rockies don’t exactly have an illustrious reputation with prospects. It’s nice to see Veen continue to perform to his draft pedigree. Scouting reports uniformly express concern about his hit tool playing against elite competition. While he possesses considerable raw power, his swing has qualities that some might describe as grooved. Such hitters can still succeed in the Majors. Billy Wagner once ridiculed Pat Burrell’s one-path swing (after allowing a home run). Joc Pederson might be a more relevant groovy comparison as a left-handed hitter with a pretty, loopy swing.

In any event, Veen is on track to spend some time in Double-A this season and debut either late in 2023 or early 2024. He works counts (14.3 percent walk rate) though he is also whiff prone (23.6 percent strikeout rate, 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate). While he’s 25-for-26 on the basepaths this season, it’s not clear if Veen will continue to run as he moves up the organizational ladder.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, Brewers (AA)
267 PA, 15 HR, 20 SB, .272/.348/.531

A divisive prospect, Wiemer is gaining steam as one of those guys who might succeed – perhaps even thrive – despite glaring flaws. He changed his mechanics heading into 2021 and unlocked massive in-game power. He launched 27 home runs in 472 plate appearances last season before tearing through the Arizona Fall League – one home run and a .467/.568/.667 triple-slash in 30 plate appearances.

There’s question if the hit tool will play in the Majors, but the power is evident enough to easily support a low-average approach. A worst-case scenario might look something like Adolis Garcia with plate discipline. Or Adam Duvall with discipline and an eagerness to run. He sells out for pull-side, fly-ball contact. He’s posted high BABIPs at every level, but this is a hitting profile that usually yields low BABIPs due to a cacophony of pulled grounders and easy fly outs. We should see him tested in Triple-A before long. Milwaukee might even need his help in the Majors late in the season if they don’t add outfield depth at the trade deadline.

Having watched him play several games, the energy he gives off evokes Bryce Harper.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (21): Last week’s lead BHP (that’s Big Hype Prospect), I noted Henderson would soon jump from around the 50th prospect to somewhere in the Top 10 as listmakers prepare their midseason updates. Since then, Baseball Prospectus’ Jarrett Seidler indicated Henderson might be the top prospect left in the minors. A highly-placed source at another major industry outlet confirmed Henderson is on a shortlist of about five players for their top prospect. As I understand it, this excludes all prospect-eligible players currently in the Majors like Michael Harris, Oneil Cruz, and C.J. Abrams.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): Currently shredding Double-A hitters, Perez is perhaps the most-precocious pitching prospect since Julio Urias. While Urias’ development was eventually delayed by injuries, Perez remains both healthy and effective. Most of what I would say about Perez was gleaned from the Marlins system update posted to FanGraphs earlier today. So, I’ll let you read what Eric Longenhagen has to say directly.

Jeter Downs, Red Sox (23): Downs made his debut recently, struck out three times in four plate appearances, and was promptly optioned back to Triple-A. Once a fairly well-regarded prospect, he’s fallen off the map since joining the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts trade. He still possesses tantalizing power and speed along with decent plate discipline. Unfortunately, there’s a ton of swing-and-miss in the profile; the kind that’s readily exploitable by seasoned pitchers. The best-case scenario these days is a sort of Dylan Moore-like outcome.

Brett Baty, Mets (22): Baty was, for me, the most visibly impressive prospect in the Arizona Fall League. Like Volpe, he had a chilly start to his Double-A campaign – his second visit to the level. He currently has a 14-game hitting over which he’s tamed his strikeout rate and pulled his season-long batting line up to an above-average .282/.372/.450 performance. Like the most of the other Double-A bats we’ve profiled today, he’s seemingly on the cusp of a promotion.

Noelvi Marte, Mariners (20): Two weeks ago, I noted some in the scouting biz had indicated Marte’s early-career dominance might be linked to physical traits that won’t necessarily scale as he advances to higher levels. In plain English, the boy got big young. Last week, I issued something of a retraction because I’d misplaced my source. Since then, I rediscovered the initial note, and it comes from a highly reputable source with access to dozens of scouts. All of this is to say that Marte doesn’t seem to be the second-coming if you buy into this early-development narrative. Not everybody does! This has been the most contentious take to appear in BHP. I look forward to fomenting more discussion about Marte. For what it’s worth, his June-long slump has continued. He hit .214/.241/.250 over the last week and is at .191/.257/.324 for the month.

Roster Moves: Brewers, Red Sox, Twins

By TC Zencka | June 23, 2022 at 4:21pm CDT

The Brewers have acquired Triple-A infielder Patrick Dorrian from the Orioles in exchange for cash considerations, per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (via Twitter). Dorrian, 25, hit .161/.256/.269 over 169 plate appearances with Triple-A Norfolk this season. As recently as last year, however, Dorrian posted a solid .246/.362/.475 in 473 plate appearances in Double-A. The Brewers will see if they can rekindle some of that magic in Triple-A.

The Red Sox have optioned Jeter Downs back to Triple-A. The move comes in anticipation of activating Christian Arroyo tomorrow, per Christopher Smith of masslive.com. Downs spent just three days on the active roster, going 0-4 in his debut with three strikeouts. Arroyo is on the COVID injured list but is expected back for Friday’s game. Arroyo has gotten off to a slow start, slashing .187/.227/.319 over 98 plate appearances.
The Twins optioned Josh Winder to Triple-A, per Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press (via Twitter). Winder just completed a rehab assignment, so he had to be returned to the active roster and optioned. The 25-year-old right-hander made three starts and pitched four times out of the bullpen this season, pitching to a 3.68 ERA/4.36 FIP over 29 1/3 innings. Winder has three options remaining, so the Twins can easily give him more time in the minors.

Red Sox Promote Jeter Downs, Designate James Norwood

By Steve Adams | June 20, 2022 at 11:11am CDT

The Red Sox announced Monday that they’ve recalled infield prospect Jeter Downs from Triple-A Worcester and designated right-hander James Norwood for assignment.

It’ll be the Major League debut for Downs whenever he first steps onto the field for a game. Acquired alongside Alex Verdugo and Connor Wong in the trade that sent Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers, Downs was once widely ranked among the sport’s 100 best prospects but has seen his stock tumble following a pair of poor showings in Triple-A. In 53 games so far with the WooSox, the 23-year-old Downs is hitting just .180/.297/.397 with a 31.1% strikeout rate in 222 plate appearances. That actually represents a modest improvement over his struggles in a larger sample during the 2021 campaign. Overall, he’s now tallied 627 Triple-A plate appearances with just a .187/.281/.355 slash to show for it.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Downs will get his first big league look and give the Sox some extra infield depth at a time when both Christian Arroyo and Enrique Hernandez are on the injured list. Major League teams who’d been carrying 14 pitchers also need to cut their pitching staff back to 13 beginning today, and Downs was already on the 40-man roster, making him an easy name to recall. They’ll need a 40-man spot once Arroyo is cleared to return from the Covid-related injured list anyhow, so designating Norwood and briefly giving Downs a taste of the Majors is a sensible — albeit likely short-term — route to take for the time being.

Norwood, acquired from the Phillies for cash over the weekend, never appeared in a game with the Sox before what is now his third DFA in the past three months. The 28-year-old spent the bulk of Spring Training with the Padres but was designated for assignment late in camp and subsequently traded to Philadelphia for minor league infielder Kervin Pichardo. Norwood showed big velocity, an ability to miss bats and a knack for keeping the ball in the park during his 17 1/3 innings with the Phils. However, he also walked too many hitters, struggled to strand runners (both inherited and those he allowed to reach base), and generally yielded too much hard contact.

In those 17 1/3 frames with Philly, Norwood was tagged for an 8.31 ERA, causing his career mark through 44 1/3 innings to balloon to 5.48. It’s certainly possible that Norwood’s 96.8 mph average fastball and splitter that comes with a 42.7% whiff rate will get him a look from another team, be it via waivers or another small trade. He’s out of minor league options, though, so any interested club will need to carry him on the 40-man roster. The Red Sox will have a week to trade Norwood, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.

Red Sox Select Jeter Downs, Three Others

By Anthony Franco | November 19, 2021 at 5:17pm CDT

The Red Sox announced this evening they’ve added four players to the 40-man roster. Infielder Jeter Downs and right-handers Josh Winckowski, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford have all been added to keep them from selection in the Rule 5 draft.

Downs has been one of the game’s higher profile prospects for a while. A supplemental first-rounder of the Reds out of a Florida high school in 2017, he’s since been involved in two blockbuster trades. Downs was part of the package sent from Cincinnati to the Dodgers in December 2018 for Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, then got traded to the Red Sox as part of the Mookie Betts deal the following winter.

Over his first few seasons, Downs offered a steady combination of bat-to-ball skills, power and second base defense. He’d projected as a potential everyday second baseman and twice ranked among the game’s top 100 overall prospects at Baseball America. But Downs struggled through an uncharacteristically poor 2021, leaving his stock a bit more uncertain. Over 405 plate appearances with Triple-A Worcester, the right-handed hitting Downs managed just a .190/.272/.333 mark with 14 home runs. Most alarming, he struck out in a massive 32.3% of his plate appearances — his first season fanning at greater than a 21% clip.

Winckowski has been involved in a pair of trades himself, both occurring last offseason. The Blue Jays sent him to the Mets as part of the Steven Matz deal, and New York flipped him to Boston in the three-team Andrew Benintendi/Khalil Lee swap not long after. A 16th-round pick by Toronto back in 2016, Winckowski has slowly climbed the minor league ladder as a starter. He split the 2021 campaign between Double-A Portland and Worcester, working to a cumulative 3.94 ERA in 112 innings with a below-average 21.3% strikeout rate but a quality 6.9% walk percentage.

Bello, a former amateur signee out of the Dominican Republic, is considered one of the organization’s more promising young pitchers. BA slotted the 22-year-old fifth in the farm system this offseason, praising his three-pitch mix and calling him a potential mid-rotation starter. Bello split this past season between High-A Greenville and Portland, working to a combined 3.87 ERA in 95 1/3 innings. He punched out a stellar 32.8% of hitters along the way against a solid 7.7% walk rate. Bello seems likely to start next season at Triple-A and could plausibly be an option for the big league club at some point in 2022.

Crawford made a two-inning cameo at the major league level in September, showing a five-pitch mix led by a 93.8 MPH fastball. The righty had been selected as a COVID replacement, though, so he was removed from the 40-man roster not long after. He’ll now stake a more longstanding spot on the roster after combining for a 4.28 ERA with great strikeout and walk numbers (34.4% and 5.2%, respectively) between Portland and Worcester.

Red Sox Add 5 Prospects To 60-Man Pool

By Jeff Todd | July 14, 2020 at 9:39am CDT

The Red Sox have added five of their top prospects to the organization’s 60-man player pool, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter) and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter links). That leaves the organization with five remaining openings.

Infielder Jeter Downs, the club’s consensus top prospect, leads the way. He’ll report for Summer Camp along with outfielder Jarren Duran, southpaw Jay Groome, and righties Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata.

Every one of those players has a top-ten spot on the latest MLB.com Red Sox farm ranking, so it’s a significant infusion of organizational talent. The club obviously doesn’t expect any of these youngsters to crack the Opening Day roster, or they’d have been in camp already, but they’ll now have a chance to train at full throttle with the team’s other best players.

Though Downs is the most-awaited of the group — expectations are high after he came over in the Mookie Betts swap — it seems the two righties have the clearest near-term path to the majors. Houck reached Triple-A last year and Mata topped out at Double-A, so both are among the more advanced arms that could be called upon if a need arises.

Red Sox Notes: Sale, Opener, Eovaldi, Martinez, Downs

By Jeff Todd | March 3, 2020 at 12:42pm CDT

Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom declined to speculate on the status of southpaw Chris Sale before getting final word from the doctors. Sale underwent an MRI today for a sore elbow. As Eduardo Encina of the Tampa Bay Times covers via Twitter, Bloom acknowledged “concern” but also said that, “hopefully, it is just a bump in the road.” The team does have some information beyond what is known publicly; as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes on Twitter, team doctors have already had a look at the imaging. But it seems that we’ll have to await the assessment of Dr. James Andrews before learning of Sale’ fate.

MLBTR Poll: Did The Red Sox Improve Their Return For Mookie Betts?

By TC Zencka | February 9, 2020 at 8:39pm CDT

Five days ago, the Boston Red Sox almost traded 2018 MVP Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-team deal. As we now know, that trade fell apart. Today, it was replaced by a new deal. This time, the Red Sox and Dodgers took matters into their own hands while Los Angeles satisfied their other agreements in a separate deal with the Twins (while yet another portion of the deal was scrapped altogether).

The earth-shattering move here is Boston dealing a former MVP in his prime. Though the Dodgers are only acquiring one season at $27MM, their books are relatively clean, and if nothing else, they are the prohibitive favorite to sign him long-term sometime next winter. But whether the Red Sox were wise to deal their young star – a player with 42 bWAR already on his resume – is not up for debate in this space. There’s clearly lots to sort out in cataloguing the pieces brought in by Dodgers’ President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman. But this isn’t the venue for that discussion either.

The financial aspect of this deal is difficult to process for many reasons. It’s no small feat to rid $75MM from the ledger in one fell swoop as the Red Sox did today. And yet, that the Boston Red Sox would be financially motivated to move one of the best players in the sport is beyond comprehension. Still, the financial numbers stayed relatively the same from version one to version two of this deal, so that can be tabled as well for now.

This space is all about parsing the Red Sox’ return. Let’s quickly review the specifics.

In version one, the Red Sox were to receive two players: Alex Verdugo from the Dodgers and Brusdar Graterol from the Twins. This time around, prospects Jeter Downs and Connor Wong are heading to Boston with Verdugo. Without seeing the medical reports that gave the Red Sox pause over Graterol, the two frameworks provide a fun what-if for the rest of us to ponder. The question here is obvious: should the Red Sox have stuck with Graterol? Or did they improve their return by swapping in Downs and Wong?

Graterol surged through the Twins’ system last season, reaching the majors less than a week after his 21st birthday. The hard-throwing righty earned his keep in a small sample, striking out 10 batters in 9 2/3 innings and finishing with a 4.66 ERA/3.42 FIP. MLB.com put him at #83 on their top 100 prospects list, while Baseball America came in a little more bullish with a #60 overall ranking. His talent isn’t in doubt – not with a sinker and four-seamer both clocked at 99 mph – but questions about his long-term health drove the the Red Sox to check behind door number two. If Graterol’s ceiling is that of a bullpen fireman, that’s a valuable asset – especially come playoff time. But even a move to the bullpen doesn’t guarantee the long-term viability of his right arm. Still, pitchers with Graterol’s stuff are rare birds and valuable commodities – even with one arm surgery already on the books.

Then there’s door number two. Downs had a big season at High-A last year after the Dodgers acquired him as the tax for taking on Homer Bailey in the Alex Wood/Yasiel Puig trade with the Reds. The 21-year-old Downs hit .269/.354/.507 in High-A before earning a promotion to Double-A in 2019. He showed well there, too, though only in a 12-game sample. He is likely to begin the year at Double-A for the Red Sox, but he’s climbing prospect boards. MLB.com put him at #44 overall, while Baseball America has him at #86. Most outlets peg him as the second baseman of the future, though he’s played more shortstop than second to this point.

Wong, 23, started the year at High-A last season as well. He finished exceptionally strong, however, putting up an impressive .349/.393/.604 line through 40 games in Double-A. Despite those gaudy numbers, he’s not as highly ranked. His power is legit, but he does strike out nearly 30% of the time, and he’s not yet walking at an average rate. Fangraphs’ had him as the Dodger’s #13 ranked prospect last season with a future value score of 40+, talent level appropriate for a bench role. For contract, Fangraphs has both Downs and Grateral with a 50 FV score. Were those ratings to come to fruition, Downs would project as an average regular, while Graterol could project as a back-end starter or potential late-inning reliever.

The debate largely centers on how much one wants to gamble on a high-end pitcher. But even the aerial view minimizes how much this deal really hinges upon the specific players involved.

To add one final wrinkle to this question, let me add this tweet from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. He says, “A number of baseball people saying #RedSox did well. Verdugo, Downs, project as regulars; Wong has good arm, power. Also moved half Price’s money. Deal at least comparable to what #DBacks got for Goldy, who cost less than Betts in walk year and had no other contracts attached.”

Whether you agree with Rosenthal’s people or not, the Paul Goldschmidt deal is certainly an interesting touchstone. Just a year ago, the Diamondbacks received Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andy Young and a competitive balance round B draft selection in exchange for one season of Goldy. For simplified context, Betts is a 27-year-old stellar defensive right fielder coming off a 6.8 bWAR season, while Goldschmidt was a 31-year-old first baseman coming off a 5.4 bWAR season.

Of course, the dollar savings factor into a comparison to the Goldschmidt trade, as Goldy made just $14.5MM last season. The Diamondbacks trade was motivated more about returning value for a player they weren’t likely to extend. The Red Sox motivations are similar, though they’re also getting out from under David Price’s contract. Not for nothing, but Price remains a viable major league starter.

Also muddying the waters here is how one views Verdugo’s future. He’s long been a player projected for stardom, though a deep player pool and injuries slowed his ascent in Los Angeles. And there remain questions about his overall makeup as well. Still, he’ll turn just 24-years-old in May, and it wasn’t long ago that he was the top prospect in a Dodgers’ system that has continued to churn out big league players.

Last season was his first with regular playing time, and he made good with a .294/.342/.475 line with 12 home runs in 106 games before an oblique strain cost him most of the rest of the year. He’s got great bat-to-ball skills, and his defense is solid enough that he can man centerfield for a time if that’s a need. He’s a promising young player, but he’ll have big shoes to fill in Boston.

I’m giving you the chance to overrule Boston’s Chief Baseball Office Chaim Bloom. Which return would you prefer?

(Poll link for app users)

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