Free Agent Stock Watch: John Buck
Jose Bautista's incredible season has been the big story for the Blue Jays this year, and for good reason. After blasting his 49th long ball last night, Bautista is just two away from matching Davey Johnson's 1973 record for biggest home run jump in a single season. However, Bautista isn't the only Blue Jay veteran who's having an unexpected career year. Quietly, John Buck has hit .274/.303/.485 in 369 plate appearances and matched his career high in homers (18), while handling a young Toronto starting rotation. Let's break down his stock heading into free agency:
The Pros
- Buck's offensive performance appears mostly sustainable. He slugged .484 in limited playing time in 2009, and has always had the ability to hit the ball out of the park. Plus, his OBP is right in line with his career rate.
- His numbers haven't been inflated by playing in a homer-friendly park; he's actually hit better on the road (.841 OPS, 11 HR).
- The free agent class of catchers doesn't look as impressive as it might have a few months ago. Veterans like Bengie Molina and A.J. Pierzynski have underperformed, and teams may not be entirely confident in Victor Martinez's ability behind the plate. Buck appears to be one of the more appealing options available.
- At 30 years old, Buck should be able to withstand the wear-and-tear of catching for at least a few more seasons.
- He'll likely remain a Type B free agent, meaning he won't cost a draft pick to sign.
The Cons
- Buck's .274 batting average isn't a mark he's likely to repeat. He's a career .241 hitter and he has an unusually high BABIP this year.
- His BB/K ratio is a career-worst 12/103.
- The 30-year-old figures to be looking for a contract larger in both years and money than the one-year, $2MM deal he signed with the Jays. He was only a .235/.298/.407 career hitter prior to this season, so suitors may be reluctant to invest millions in him.
The Verdict
Even if the Blue Jays decide to roll the dice with J.P. Arencibia as their primary backstop next season, they should offer Buck arbitration. In the unlikely scenario that he accepts, they'll have him back at an affordable price. If he declines, Buck will probably be looking to land a multi-year deal elsewhere. Last winter, the 35-year-old Bengie Molina was coming off a season similar to Buck's and signed a one-year contract worth $4.5MM. I wouldn't be surprised to see Buck ink a two- or three-year deal for about the same yearly salary that Molina received.
Odds & Ends: Ellsbury, Pirates, Soto, Drew
Links for Sunday, as the Padres, Giants, and Rockies find themselves separated by a single game in the NL West standings….
- Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe hears from a pair of Mets officials that the team may make a run at Jacoby Ellsbury this winter.
- GM Neal Huntington discusses the Pirates' nine arbitration-eligible players with Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Geovany Soto will have arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder tomorrow, tweets Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Soto will be looking at a three-month recovery, so he should be fully healthy for spring training.
- J.D. Drew isn't sure what the future holds after his current deal expires, writes WEEI's Rob Bradford. Drew is under contract through 2011 and indicates that he's considering the possibility of retiring after that.
- Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer outlines a few of the Indians' needs, and addresses the possibility of Josh Byrnes joining the team's front office.
Dodgers Notes: Kemp, Ethier, Loney, Free Agents
It's been an eventful week for the Dodgers, with news that Don Mattingly will replace Joe Torre as the team's manager. Let's check out a few more updates out of Los Angeles, as the club prepares for the offseason….
- GM Ned Colletti says he doesn't intend to drastically overhaul his roster this winter, according to MLB.com's Ken Gurnick. "A year like this makes you look at every aspect of the team and makes you more apt to listen [to trade overtures]," Colletti said. "But it won't make me aggressively tear it up."
- Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times thinks that Colletti would be right not to move Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier, but argues that the club should look into dealing James Loney. He also suggests that signing a free agent outfielder should be the Dodgers' "only big winter expenditure."
- According to Gurnick, Colletti would like to add a productive left fielder to replace Manny Ramirez. It's unclear whether the Dodgers will have the resources to bid on players like Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth.
- Catcher and third base also may be areas that need to be addressed, says Gurnick. Rod Barajas will be a free agent, Russell Martin will be recovering from a broken hip, and Casey Blake could be shifted into a utility role.
- The team is expected to try to retain free agents Ted Lilly, Jay Gibbons, and Barajas. They could also attempt to bring back Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla, depending on asking price and health.
- A few longtime Yankees weighed in on Torre's decision to step down, as Chad Jennings of the Journal News writes.
Davidoff On Beltran, Greinke, Takahashi, Kemp
The Mets are sending "strong signals" that they'd like to trade Carlos Beltran this winter, an AL official tells Ken Davidoff of Newsday. Davidoff acknowledges that the Mets often seem to want to unload big contracts, but rarely follow through. However, Beltran, as opposed to Luis Castillo or Oliver Perez, is a player that other teams would have interest in. Here are Davidoff's other hot stove notes:
- The Royals have Zack Greinke signed through 2012, but aren't sure whether they'll be competitive by then, so they'd be willing to listen to offers on their ace. Davidoff lists the Yankees, Rangers, Tigers, and Nationals as teams who might be interested.
- Hisanori Takahashi is eligible for free agency this winter and would like to be a starting pitcher. One AL scout is skeptical: "Who’s going to sign him to start? Maybe a bad team, at the back end of their rotation. He’d be better off staying in the bullpen. He’s really good there."
- Davidoff wonders if new Dodgers manager Don Mattingly will be more willing to deal with Matt Kemp than Joe Torre was. A scout compares Kemp to Alfonso Soriano, suggesting that both players lack baseball instincts and struggle to improve their games.
Jason LaRue Retires
It wasn't the way he wanted to go out, but Jason LaRue tells Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he has played his last game in the majors. LaRue suffered a severe concussion when he was kicked in the head by Johnny Cueto during the Cardinals/Reds brawl last month, and doesn't want to risk further head injuries by continuing his career.
"I'm done. It's a simple decision," LaRue said. "As a catcher you're so vulnerable to getting another (concussion). All it takes a foul ball to the head. Even as a backup that happened 3-5 times last year. It's not a question of if it would happen again, it's when. Nobody can guarantee anything. It'll probably be worse."
According to Strauss, friends of LaRue say the 36-year-old was considering taking legal action against Cueto for the on-field assault, but ultimately decided against it. Still, he's disappointed with the way his career had to end: "I was going to retire on my own terms…. Does it suck that my career is over because Johnny Cueto started kicking me in the head? Yes, it sucks."
Although he played in just 29 games this season, LaRue hit .231/.315/.396 in 3103 career plate appearances, spending time with the Reds, Royals, and Cardinals. According to Baseball-Reference, the backstop earned $19.44MM over the course of his 12-year career.
Odds & Ends: Coyle, V-Mart, Lackey, Ellis
Saturday night links, as Troy Tulowitzki's jaw-dropping September continues….
- Fort Washington, Pennsylvania product Sean Coyle is now represented by Sosnick-Cobbe Sports, tweets ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. The shortstop received a $1.3MM bonus from the Red Sox as a third-round draft pick out of high school this year. Sosnick-Cobbe already represents the draft's other big-name Pennsylvania native in the Phillies' Jesse Biddle, who was drafted in the first round. There may be another million dollar draft pick from the state next year in Derek Fisher, a high school outfielder hailing from Rexmont.
- Clay Buchholz would love to see Victor Martinez return to the Red Sox next year, according to Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
- Terry Francona tells MLB.com's Ian Browne that he was "thrilled" the Red Sox signed John Lackey last winter, and that he hasn't lost any confidence in the investment.
- A.J. Ellis' recent play for the Dodgers could put him in line for a bigger role next year, writes Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times.
Manager Rumors: Riggleman, Blue Jays, Cubs, Manuel
A few manager-related updates….
- Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports that if the Nationals want to buy Jim Riggleman out of his contract, they'll have to do so by the day after the World Series ends. Mike Rizzo, who said earlier this year that Riggleman "will be back next season," suggested that a decision on the club's manager has been made, but not announced.
- ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick says (via Twitter) that Don Wakamatsu, Bob Melvin, and Pat Listach are a few names on the Blue Jays' list of potential Cito Gaston replacements. Crasnick adds that Wakamatsu is also on the Cubs' list.
- On the general manager front, Tom Krasovic of AOL FanHouse tweets that the Diamondbacks hope to have a GM in place by the time their final homestand begins on Tuesday.
- Charlie Manuel tells MLB.com's Todd Zolecki that he could see himself still managing at 85 years old. Manuel is "only" 66 now, so it's safe to say he's not considering retirement quite yet.
Non-Tender Candidate: Kevin Kouzmanoff
At first glance, Kevin Kouzmanoff's 2010 numbers look like exactly what the Athletics must have expected when they acquired him from the Padres in January. His .256/.291/.404 slash line is nearly identical to 2009's .255/.302/.420, and his power numbers have remained fairly consistent for his entire career; in his three years in San Diego, Kouzmanoff hit 18, 23, and 18 homers, along with 30, 31, and 31 doubles. His totals in Oakland so far this year? 14 and 31. Throw in his best defensive season, according to UZR, and it would seem that the 29-year-old should have no worries about being tendered a contract this winter.
There are a few areas of concern though, that the Athletics will undoubtedly take into account. For one, Kouzmanoff has seen his OPS gradually decline since his rookie year, down to .696 this year from .786 in 2007. And while Oakland's Coliseum is hardly a hitter's park, presumably the team was hoping that getting away from Petco would help Kouzmanoff's offense a little. During his Padres years, Kouzmanoff's OPS was typically about 100 points higher on the road – this year, his home and road marks are both below .700.
The Athletics were willing to trade for Kouzmanoff and pay him $3.1MM for his first arbitration-eligible season. Given his impressive defensive performance and only a slight dip in offensive production, perhaps the A's will be happy to tender the third baseman a contract, even taking into account an arbitration raise. But as a starting corner infielder with a sub-.700 OPS, Kouzmanoff has to be considered a non-tender candidate heading into the offseason.
Do you expect Kouzmanoff to be non-tendered after the season? Click here to weigh in, and click here to view the results.
Odds & Ends: Rollins, Nady, La Russa, Konerko
Links for Wednesday night, as Kyle Drabek takes a loss in his first major league start….
- MLB.com's Todd Zolecki reminds us that Jimmy Rollins earned ten-and-five rights last week.
- Xavier Nady isn't sure whether he'll be back in Chicago next year, but he loves the organization and the fans, according to Carrie Muskat of MLB.com.
- One person who definitely won't be wearing a Cubs uniform in 2011? Tony La Russa. The Cardinals' skipper ruled out the possibility of managing the Cubs next season, writes Matthew Leach of MLB.com.
- Paul Konerko "deserves to be back here and paid the right way" next year, Gordon Beckham tells MLB.com's Scott Merkin.
Non-Tender Candidate: Cody Ross
When the Giants were awarded Cody Ross on waivers last month, it likely increased Ross' chances of being tendered a contract for 2011. If the Marlins were willing to give Ross up for nothing but salary relief, they may have decided to part ways with Ross this winter rather than going to arbitration with him once more. The Giants, on the other hand, have a crowded outfield now, but Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, and Jose Guillen will be free agents after the season, meaning there should be room for Ross if the Giants choose to retain him.
Ross, who will turn 30 this winter, is earning $4.45MM this season and will be entering his final year of arbitration eligibility. He'll receive a raise, but not one as significant as last year's $2.225MM bump. After hitting .266/.319/.477 and averaging 23 homers per season in 2008 and 2009, he has seen his power numbers drop this year (.261/.315/.393, 11 homers). Still, UZR ranks Ross as an above-average defender, and paying him $5-6MM would hardly cripple the Giants' payroll.
Ross' future in San Francisco could be dictated by how the team decides to replace (or retain) its free agent outfielders. The Giants were occasionally linked to free agents like Jason Bay and Matt Holliday last winter, but they elected to eschew the big names in favor of more affordable players. Given the success they've had with that approach, they could easily try it again, perhaps non-tendering Ross in the hopes of striking gold with an even cheaper option, as they did with Huff ($3MM).
Do you expect the Giants to non-tender Ross this winter? Click here to weigh in, and click here to view the results.