David Robertson was the 47th-ranked player on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, yet the veteran reliever is still looking for a contract as the calendar approaches mid-April.  Veteran starter Lance Lynn was an honorable mention on our list, and while there wasn’t any indication that Lynn was considering hanging up the cleats after 13 big league seasons, Lynn rather surprisingly announced his retirement two weeks ago.

On paper, both pitchers seemed like sure bets to land respectable contracts this winter, but what happened?  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale explored the subject as part of a larger piece about the somewhat still market that several free agents (including even top names like Corbin Burnes) faced this offseason, or in past offseasons.  As Lynn put it, “you know what you think you’re worth, you know where you want to be, but teams look to try to get a guy as cheap as possible…..I was in a weird market where every team could afford me, but 20 to 25 teams are not looking to compete.  Every team has the same playbook.”

The Cardinals didn’t exercise their $12MM club option on Lynn for the 2025 season, instead buying him out for $1MM and sending the veteran back onto the open market.  Robertson was also technically tied to a $7MM mutual option with the Rangers for 2025, but since mutual options are almost always declined by one or both sides, it was no surprise that Robertson passed on his side of the option and instead took a $1.5MM buyout.

Lynn had a 3.84 ERA over 117 1/3 innings with St. Louis last year, with a slate of below-average Statcast metrics and two IL stints due to knee inflammation.  His SIERA was 4.40, though overall, Lynn’s secondary numbers were more or less the same as they were in 2023, when Lynn was perhaps unlucky to post a 5.73 ERA over 183 2/3 combined innings with the White Sox and Dodgers.

Acknowledging his age (37), injury history, and modest production, Lynn went into the offseason with an $8MM asking price, a significant decrease from both his Cards club option and from the eight-figure average annual values that he has earned over the better part of the last decade.  Lynn was also open to the idea of moving to the bullpen and possibly a high-leverage role, and some teams expressed interest about this possibility.  Still, the Cubs were the only team publicly linked to Lynn’s market, and Lynn heard from other teams that they were only willing to sign him for $4MM if he waited until around June.

“I didn’t hear anything for so long, then everyone started offering basically the same thing,” Lynn said.  “Every team seemed to say, ’This is the best deal you’re going to get.’  When I kept saying, ’No, you’re only paying me half of what I’m worth,’ they said, ’What are you going to do, just not play?’  Well, my answer is yes.”

Obviously the concept of what a particular player is “worth” is subjective, and it seems like no team shared Lynn’s opinion that he would produce $8MM or more of value in 2025.  Lynn’s stance doesn’t seem unreasonable, given his long track record in the majors and the simple fact that every team is always in need of pitching.  Increasingly, however, teams have been less willing to pay past market-established prices for a veteran innings-eater type, as clubs prefer to cover those innings at the back of a rotation with multiple younger pitchers, relievers, or an even lower-cost veteran on a non-guaranteed contract.

Robertson’s situation is perhaps even harder to figure.  Nightengale writes that the reliever was looking for a $10MM salary in his next contract, after earning $10MM in a one-year deal with the Mets in 2023 and then last winter’s $11.5MM guarantee from the Rangers.  Ten different relievers (not counting Clay Holmes, who signed with the Mets a starter) inked deals with at least a $10MM average annual value this past offseason, so Robertson’s ask wasn’t out of line with the rest of the market.

Though Robertson just celebrated his 40th birthday earlier this week, he wasn’t showing much sign of slowing down while posting a 3.00 ERA over 72 innings with Texas last season.  His 33.4% strikeout rate was one of the best of his career and one of the best of any hurler in baseball in 2024, and his cutter remained one of the game’s more devastating pitches.  Robertson’s walk rate was below average and his hard-contact numbers were only okay, though he limited the hardest contact in the form of very strong barrel numbers.

Robertson’s impressive season came on the heels of two other quality years in 2022-23, so it wasn’t like he was having a sudden late-career revival.  The Cubs (again) and Tigers both reportedly had interest in Robertson this winter, but no deals emerged anywhere, despite the long list of teams who were openly looking for high-leverage bullpen help.  Looking at that list of other relievers who landed a $10MM AAV, there are several names on that list coming off less-productive and more injury-plagued seasons than Robertson, or who lack even his three-year track record of success (to say nothing of Robertson’s overall success across 16 seasons in the Show).

It could be that teams simply couldn’t look past Robertson’s looming 40th birthday, and the added risk associated with committing substantial money to any player of an advancing age.  That said, the exact same logic applied to Robertson heading into age-39 season, and that didn’t prevent him from landing a solid payday from the Rangers.  It seems logical that Robertson would be seeking out a comparable salary coming off an even better season than he delivered in 2023, yet he remains unsigned.  There hasn’t been much word on what Robertson’s next step might be, in regards to whether he is now looking at being an in-season signing, or if he might be weighing a year off or even retirement.