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Phillies Chairman John Middleton Expects Higher Payroll In 2025

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The Phillies are no strangers to big spending, as the last four seasons have seen the club post the four highest Opening Day payrolls in franchise history.  It looks as though the payroll ceiling will continue to rise heading into 2025, as team chairman John Middleton told Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer earlier this week.

“Given where we are in contract cycles and minor league people coming up, I expect the player payroll to be higher [than this year] rather than lower,” Middleton said.  “I’d be surprised if it’s the same, and I’d be stunned, very stunned, if it’s lower.  I don’t see it being lower.”

According to projections from Cot’s Baseball Contracts and RosterResource, the Phillies have roughly somewhere between $259MM-$270MM already committed to their 2025 payroll in terms of pure dollars.  The luxury tax number is even higher, with Cot’s projecting an approximate tax number of $281.5MM, and RosterResource has a rough estimate of around $288.4MM.

In either case, the Phillies are already slightly or well beyond the third tax penalty tier of $281MM.  While the Phillies have paid the tax in each of the the last three seasons, the third tier has been something of an unofficial internal limit for the Phils during the Middleton era, though he has said in the past that it is by no means a hard cap.  Middleton reiterated as much to Lauber, saying that “for the right player, I have a high degree of confidence that [president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski] and I would go over the third limit.”

As Middleton noted, a spending increase was already baked into the Phillies’ plans due to internal raises alone.  Zack Wheeler’s extension kicks in this winter, so he’ll go from a $23.5MM salary in 2024 to $42MM in each of the next three seasons.  Philadelphia also has a pretty large arbitration class, and might save only around $8.7MM if Austin Hays, Kolby Allard, and Garrett Stubbs are all non-tendered as expected.

Dombrowski could find some creative way to move some larger contracts (say, the money owed to Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker) off the books to give the Phils a little more breathing room on the payroll front, though such swaps are much easier said than done.  What Middleton didn’t address was whether or not the Phillies would be willing to top the fourth and final spending tier of $301MM in order to add another big-ticket talent on top of the Phils’ pre-existing core.

Braves Hire Pete Putila As Assistant GM

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The Braves hired Pete Putila in an assistant general manger role, as initially reported by ESPN’s Jorge Castillo (X link).  Putila will be focusing on operating Atlanta’s international scouting department, and he’ll join Jason Pare (whose purview is research & development) and Ben Sestanovich (player development) as the third AGM under president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos.

Putila spent the previous two seasons as the Giants’ GM, working as the chief lieutenant in the baseball ops department under PBO Farhan Zaidi.  However, Zaidi was fired at season’s end, and new president of baseball operations Buster Posey announced that Putila would be replaced as general manager and given a new role in the organization.  It perhaps isn’t surprising that Putila was looking for a fresh start himself in the wake of the Giants’ front office overhaul, thus leading to this new role in Atlanta.

Beginning his baseball career as an intern in Houston’s front office in 2011, Putila spent 12 seasons with the Astros, rising up the ranks to an eventual assistant GM title in 2019.  Even after the Astros shook up their front office in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal, Putila remained in his role under new general manager James Click, and stayed in Houston until the Giants came calling in October 2022.  It wasn’t the first time Putila had drawn interest from other teams, as the Pirates and the Giants themselves had previously considered Putila as a candidate for past front office vacancies.

Hall Of Fame Announces Eight Names On Era Committee Ballot

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Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Dave Parker, Vic Harris, Tommy John and Luis Tiant were revealed today by the Hall of Fame as this year’s candidates on the Era Committee ballot.  Most commonly known as the “veterans committee,” a panel of 16 people (comprised of former players, executives, sportswriters, and historians) will meet during the Winter Meetings to vote on whether or not any of these eight candidates will be elected to Cooperstown.  At least 12 of 16 votes are needed for induction, and the results of the balloting will be revealed on December 8.

The Era Committee rotates between three pools of candidates every year — players from the “Contemporary Baseball” era of 1980 until the present, managers/executives/umpires from this same 1980-present period, and all individuals from the “Classic Baseball” era of pre-1980.  This year’s ballot focused on the Classic Baseball era, ranging from well-known MLB stars to somewhat lesser-known names like Harris and Donaldson, who were both icons of the Negro Leagues.

Several of the candidates have appeared on Era Committee ballots in the past, with Allen infamously falling a single vote short of induction in both 2015 and 2021.  Harris was also a near-miss on the 2021 ballot, landing 10 of the minimum 12 votes necessary for induction to Cooperstown.

Narrowly missing out on what is already a second-chance ballot adds to the bittersweet nature of the Era Committee.  While the process has corrected many oversights from the writers’ ballot, getting to these oversights sometimes decades after the fact means that some of the inductees aren’t able to personally enjoy their day of glory in Cooperstown.  Garvey, Parker, and John are the only members of this year’s ballot who are still alive, as Tiant passed away less than a month ago.

The Era Committee ballot is separate from the annual BBWAA ballot for more modern Hall of Fame candidates, and the results of the BBWAA ballot will be revealed on January 21.  Ichiro Suzuki is a lock for induction in his first year on that ballot, and C.C. Sabathia and Felix Hernandez are two other first-timers with solid Cooperstown cases.

Joe Jimenez To Miss 8-12 Months After Knee Surgery

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Braves right-hander Joe Jimenez underwent a left knee surgery last week to fix cartilage damage, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Justin Toscano reports (X link).  The procedure comes with a recovery period of 8-12 months, so Jimenez is now in danger of missing the entire 2025 season.

There hadn’t been any indication that Jimenez was dealing with knee problems, as the reliever hasn’t been on the injured list for any reason since the very end of the 2022 campaign, when Jimenez was still pitching with the Tigers.  In a follow-up post on X, Toscano notes that Jimenez hurt his knee during the season but pitched through the discomfort, and the extent of the injury wasn’t known until the surgery took place.

Atlanta acquired Jimenez for a two-prospect package (which included Justyn-Henry Malloy) in December 2022, and the righty has been nothing short of stellar in his two seasons in a Braves uniform.  Jimenez had a 3.04 ERA over 56 1/3 innings in 2023, and then did even better in delivering a 2.62 ERA in 68 2/3 frames this past season.  His strikeout rates have been elite across both seasons, but Jimenez drastically improved his hard-contact numbers from 2023 to 2024 — he jumped into the 91st percentile of all pitchers in both barrel rate and hard-hit ball rate, after not even making the tenth percentile in either category in 2023.

It was almost exactly one year ago that the Braves signed Jimenez to a three-year, $26MM contract extension just shortly before Jimenez was about to hit the free agent market.  Jimenez earned $8MM in 2024 and is slated for $9MM in both 2025 and 2026, though that salary could end up being largely a sunk cost for the 2025 campaign depending on how much time he misses.

A return after the All-Star break would represent the best-case scenario for Jimenez, though the four-month range of his timeline creates a lot of gray area.  In theory, Jimenez could miss most of the regular season and still be ready to participate in a playoff run, though the more time Jimenez misses, the trickier decision the Braves may face in deciding whether or not to activate a potentially rusty pitcher for critical postseason games.

The Braves had one of the league’s best bullpens in 2024, but A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez, and Luke Jackson are all free agents, and now Jimenez will miss at least half of the season.  Griffin Canning has already been brought into the rotation mix and, spending on any other starters acquired, Atlanta could dip into its young starting depth to reinforce the pen during the course of the 2025 season.  Odds are that president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos was already planning to add a reliever or two to the mix anyway this winter, but Jimenez’s injury now might make the Braves a little more aggressive in shopping in this market.

Joey Meneses, Ildemaro Vargas, Michael Rucker Elect Free Agency After Nationals’ Outrights

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The Nationals announced that first baseman Joey Meneses, utilityman Ildemaro Vargas, and right-hander Michael Rucker are all free agents after clearing waivers and being outrighted off Washington’s 40-man roster.  Meneses was eligible for minor league free agency, while Vargas (due to service time) and Rucker (a past outright assignment) were each eligible to elect free agency and chose to exercise that right.  The moves clear some space on the Nationals’ roster for Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli, Mason Thompson, and Joan Adon, who were all reinstated from the 60-day injured list.

Vargas was projected for a $1.8MM salary in his third and final year of arbitration eligibility, and with a non-tender likely looming, Vargas will now get an early start on the free agent market.  The 33-year-old Vargas signed a minor league deal with Washington midway through the 2022 season and ended up hitting .257/.302/.354 over 785 plate appearances and 234 games in a Nats uniform.  Most of Vargas’ playing time came at third base, but he spent a substantial amount of time at both middle infield positions and also chipped in for a few games as a first baseman, corner outfielder, and even a mop-up pitcher in blowouts.

Meneses also broke in with the Nationals (and in MLB in general) during the 2022 season, as he stepped in as Washington’s regular first baseman once Josh Bell was traded to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto deal.  After bouncing around the minors and playing in Mexico and Japan during his long pro career, Meneses made the most of his big league debut by hitting .324/.367/.563 with 13 homers over 240 PA during the remainder of the 2022 campaign.

The magic of that unexpected breakout didn’t last, however, as Meneses had an unspectacular .275/.321/.401 slash line in 657 PA in 2023 as the Nationals’ regular DH.  This translated to a sub-replacement level -0.2 fWAR, and the number sunk to -1.0 fWAR when Meneses hit only .231/.291/.302 in 313 PA this season.  Juan Yepez and rookie Andres Chaparro look to be covering Washington’s first base situation for now, though the Nats are expected to make a play for a bigger-hitting first baseman this offseason.

Rucker’s run in the Nationals’ organization was brief, as he was only selected off waivers from the Phillies in September and he didn’t see any big league action.  Rucker hasn’t pitched in the Show since 2023, and he was limited to 30 2/3 minor league innings with Philadelphia and Washington in 2024 due to a lengthy IL stint because of an arterial vasospasm in his pitching hand.

All of Rucker’s MLB experience came with the Cubs from 2021-23, when he posted a 4.96 ERA in 123 1/3 innings out of Chicago’s bullpen.  The home run ball gave Rucker a lot of issues, though his career 3.94 SIERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, and 9.4% walk rate are all palatable.  Assuming that Rucker is now fully healthy, he’ll likely land a minor league deal with a team in need of pitching depth.

Frankie Montas Declines Mutual Option; Brewers Outright Bryse Wilson, Jake Bauers

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The Brewers announced a set of roster moves today, including the news that Frankie Montas declined his end of a $20MM mutual option for the 2025 season.  Montas (who will be 32 on Opening Day) will instead take a $2MM buyout and enter free agency.  Milwaukee also outrighted right-hander Bryse Wilson and first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers off the 40-man roster, and both players will head to free agency as well.

The one-year contract Montas signed with the Reds last winter broke down as a $14MM guarantee for 2024, and then the $2MM buyout on the $20MM mutual option.  It should be noted that mutual options are almost never triggered by both sides, so Montas’ decision to decline the option in the wake of his so-so season shouldn’t be seen as a surprise, as the Brewers surely would’ve passed on their end of the option anyway.

A labrum surgery in February 2023 ended up costing Montas all but 1 1/3 innings of the 2023 season, as he made it back to pitch in the second-last game of the Yankees’ regular-season schedule.  Despite that lost year, the right-hander’s past track record of success as a starter with the Athletics still allowed Montas to land a healthy one-year guarantee in free agency, though his attempt at a bounce-back season delivered mixed results.

Montas posted a 4.84 ERA over 150 2/3 combined innings with the Reds and Brewers, as Milwaukee picked up Montas in an intra-division trade at the deadline.  The righty’s strikeout rate shot upwards after the trade and his SIERA improved by almost a full run, even though Montas’ 4.55 ERA with the Brew Crew wasn’t a huge upgrade over the 5.01 ERA he posted in Cincinnati.

For the full season, Montas’ 22.6% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 27.7% chase rate, and hard-contact metrics were all below the league average.  Some rust was perhaps expected since Montas missed basically all of 2023, and the fact that he returned to pitch 150 2/3 innings is perhaps the most important stat in the eyes of some evaluators.  Teams will always have a need for starters who can eat innings, and Montas’ uptick in performance after joining the Brewers could be viewed as a sign that he might still be able to get closer to his old form now that he is further removed from his surgery.

Bauers was projected to earn $2.3MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, and Wilson $1.5MM in his first trip through the arb process.  Both were expected to be non-tendered, so today’s moves gives the pair an early jump on the free agent market in advance of the November 22 non-tender deadline.

Acquired from the Yankees in a trade last November, Bauers hit .199/.301/.361 with 12 homers over 346 plate appearances in what looks to be his lone season in Milwaukee.  Bauers primarily played in a timeshare at first base with Rhys Hoskins, while also getting some action in at both corner outfield positions.  Hoskins exercised his player option and will return to the Brewers in 2025, with Tyler Black probably now penciled in to at least assume the left-handed hitting side of the first base timeshare, leaving Bauers an obvious odd man out.

Wilson had a 4.04 ERA, 18.6% strikeout rate, and seven percent walk rate over 104 2/3 innings in 2024, and he worked in a variety of roles as a starter, reliever, and bulk pitcher behind an opener.  Working in a pure relief role with the Brewers in 2023, Wilson had a 2.58 ERA in 76 2/3 frames over 53 appearances.

Between Wilson’s solid bottom-line results, the low arbitration price tag, and the remaining years of team control, Milwaukee’s decision to move on from the 26-year-old seems curious at first, though Wilson’s underwhelming peripherals provide the answer.  Wilson’s .253 BABIP helped offset his lack of strikeout punch, and his 4.33 SIERA over his two seasons with the Brewers was substantially higher than his 3.42 ERA.  The Brewers could potentially look to re-sign Wilson to a new contract, though it seems like the Crew might want a higher-upside arm for its pitching depth chart.

Diamondbacks Claim Seth Martinez

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The Diamondbacks announced that right-hander Seth Martinez was claimed off waivers from the Astros.  It hadn’t been publicly reported that Martinez had been designated for assignment, but the 30-year-old reliever will now change teams for the second time in his career.

Selected away from the Athletics in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, all 137 1/3 of Martinez’s career big league innings have come in a Houston uniform.  The righty has a career 3.93 ERA, 20.7% strikeout rate, and 9.2% walk rate, and his 2024 numbers included a 3.59 ERA, 16.2K%, and 8.1% walk rate in 52 2/3 frames.  Martinez spent most of the season on the Astros’ big league roster, though after the All-Star break, Houston shuttled him back and forth from Triple-A on multiple occasions.

Martinez is now out of minor league options, which probably tied into the Astros’ decision to put the right-hander on waivers.  Though he hasn’t yet reached arbitration eligibility and is under team control through 2028, the Astros felt comfortable moving on from Martinez, leaving Arizona able to pick up a controllable reliever for its bullpen mix.

There’s no risk for the D’Backs in taking a look at Martinez during Spring Training, and for now the club at least has a placeholder of a reliever in place as they look to remake their bullpen.  Arizona’s relief corps was a weak link for the team in 2024, and Martinez represents the type of lower-cost reliever that GM Mike Hazen has tended to target during his time running the Diamondbacks’ front office.

James Karinchak Granted Free Agency After Outright From Guardians

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The Guardians announced some roster moves this afternoon, including the news that right-hander James Karinchak was reinstated from the 60-day injured list and then outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster.  Karinchak was granted free agency, so the 29-year-old righty will now hit the open market.

The hard-throwing Karinchak burst onto the scene with a sixth-place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2020, posting a 2.67 ERA over 27 innings while striking out an exceptional 48.6% of all batters faced.  A 14.7% walk rate was attached to all those missed bats, however, which ended up being a constant over Karinchak’s time in the majors.  Over parts of five seasons with Cleveland, Karinchak had a 36.3K% and 14.1% walk rate in 165 2/3 innings, with a 3.10 ERA.

While the bottom-line results were still okay, Karinchak’s performance diminished after the league’s crackdown on illegal substances in 2021, and continued control problems and injuries made him something of an afterthought for the Guardians.  A teres major muscle strain cost him a big chunk of the 2022 season, he was shuttled back and forth from Triple-A multiple times in 2023, and he was limited to just 6 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2024 due to a shoulder injury suffered during Spring Training.

Karinchak was projected to earn $1.9MM in the arbitration process, so today’s transaction is essentially just an early non-tender.  Karinchak is still arb-controlled through 2026 and he has one minor league option year remaining, so any interested teams could stash him in Triple-A to see if he can stay healthy or harness his control.  The obvious strikeout potential will surely land Karinchak a minors deal somewhere, and a change of scenery could help him get his career back on track.

David Fry To Miss Start Of 2025 Season Due To Elbow Surgery, Will Be Limited To DH Duty

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Guardians utilityman David Fry was known to be receiving consultation from Dr. Keith Meister about a lingering right elbow injury, and MLB.com’s Mandy Bell (X link) reports that Fry had to undergo a surgery to correct the issue.  As outlined by the Guardians (via X), Fry underwent a hybrid/internal brace and tendon reconstruction surgery to address a flexor strain and a “chronically insufficient” UCL.

Fry will need 12 months to return to action as a fielder, so he’ll be limited to DH duty for the entirety of the 2025 season.  Even in that case, Fry will need 6-8 months just to return as a designated hitter, so he’ll be sidelined for at least the start of next season.

It’s a tough turn of events for both Fry and the Guardians, as his defensive versatility made him a uniquely valuable asset on Cleveland’s roster.  Ostensibly a backup catcher, Fry has bounced all over the diamond during his two MLB seasons, banking almost as many innings at first base and as a corner outfielder (129 innings in left, 67 in right) as he has behind the plate, and Fry has also made a handful of appearances at third base.

This usage was curtailed midway through the 2024 season as Fry’s elbow issue began to surface.  After June 23, he made only one appearance at catcher and 10 appearances at first base, otherwise playing only as a DH and pinch-hitter.  There was a clear impact on Fry’s production, as he had a scorching-hot 1.046 OPS over his first 159 plate appearances of the season, and a far more modest .649 OPS over his final 233 trips to the plate.

The overall result was still a .263/.356/.448 slash line and 14 homers in 392 PA, and Fry’s 129 wRC+ ranked third on the team behind Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan.  Fry kept it going in the playoffs, hitting .286/.333/.536 with two homers over 31 October plate appearances, highlighted by his 10th-inning walkoff homer in Game 3 of the ALCS.

Cleveland was expected to pursue hitting help this winter anyway, so losing one of their top bats to a brace surgery further sets back the Guardians’ quest for offense.  In the best-case scenario, Fry will be able to return to Cleveland’s lineup in early April, and he’ll assume at least a share of the regular DH role.  The right-handed hitting Fry was a lot more productive against lefties than righties this season, so a left-handed bat like Kyle Manzardo might be in line to get the lion’s share of the DH at-bats anyway once Fry eventually returns.

Of course, quite a bit might be in flux with the Guardians’ first base/DH situation this winter, as Josh Naylor is widely seen as a trade candidate as he enters his last year of team control.  If Naylor was dealt and Fry needs more recovery time, it leaves Manzardo and Jhonkensy Noel as an inexperienced pair of first-choice candidates for first base and DH duty, which might make Cleveland a little more apt to hang onto Naylor.

On the catching side, Bo Naylor will continue to receive the bulk of starts behind the plate, and nobody would be surprised if defensive specialist Austin Hedges is re-signed to again serve as the backup.  Fry will be missed in the outfield as well, though it was expected that the Guardians would look to bolster the outfield mix anyway with a new addition.

Joe Kelly Planning To Pitch In 2025

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In an upcoming edition of the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast, veteran reliever Joe Kelly told host Rob Bradford (X link) that he isn’t yet planning to retire, and that the right-hander is aiming to return next season and pitch in what would be his 14th Major League campaign.

While there hadn’t been any particular indication that Kelly was thinking of calling it a career, it was fair to wonder about his future considering his recent injury history.  Kelly was limited to 35 games and 32 innings for the Dodgers this season due to recurring shoulder problems, most prominently a right posterior strain that put him on the injured list for about 2.5 months.  The right-hander then missed a little under three weeks during another IL stint due to shoulder soreness, and missed out on the Dodgers’ playoff run after (according to manager Dave Roberts) tweaking his shoulder during a simulated game in early October.  Kelly did tell Bradford that he thought he might get inserted onto the World Series roster if the Fall Classic had gone to a Game 6, perhaps due to another injury within the Dodgers’ bullpen.

Kelly has now visited the IL on ten separate occasions over the last five seasons, due to a variety of both arm-related (shoulder, elbow inflammation, nerve problem in his bicep) issues and other maladies like a groin strain or a hamstring strain.  The longest of these IL stints was this season’s trip to the 60-day IL for the shoulder strain, but the sheer number of knocks clearly makes durability a big concern for Kelly as he heads into his age-37 season.

Unsurprisingly, Kelly’s performance has tended to fluctuate pretty wildly amidst all these injuries.  He has a 4.21 ERA over 162 1/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season, with a strong 29.4% strikeout rate but also an 11.2% walk rate.  Kelly had this same walk rate during the 2024 season, though only with a 24.5K% and a 4.78 ERA in his 32 frames.  Most of his Statcast metrics were below average, yet Kelly can still bring elite velocity with his 98.1 mph fastball.

That eye-popping heater will still surely get Kelly some looks from interested teams in free agency this winter, though landing anything beyond a one-year contract would count as a surprise.  Kelly’s past forays into the open market have netted some healthy contracts — a three-year, $25MM pact with the Dodgers in December 2018, then a two-year, $17MM deal with the White Sox prior to the start of the 2022 season.  That latter contract contained a $9.5MM club option for 2024 that the Dodgers (who re-acquired Kelly at the 2023 trade deadline) declined, though they then re-signed Kelly on a one-year, $8MM pact for 2024.

Returning to L.A. on a lower salary could certainly be in the cards, as there is some obvious fondness between the two sides and Kelly would surely love a crack at a fourth World Series ring.  Beyond the Dodgers, pretty much any team in need of extra bullpen velo could consider Kelly in the hopes that he is due for another bounce-back year, even with the caveat that is seems unlikely he’d avoid the injured list for an entire season.

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