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D’Backs Exercise Option On Kelly, Decline Option On McGough; Pederson Declines Mutual Option

By Mark Polishuk | November 2, 2024 at 12:10pm CDT

The Diamondbacks will be exercising their $7MM club option on Merrill Kelly for the 2025 season, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  The team will also be declining their end of a $4MM mutual option on right-hander Scott McGough, as McGough will head into free agency with a $750K buyout.  He’ll be joined by Joc Pederson, who took a $3MM buyout after declining his end of a $14MM mutual option for the 2025 campaign.

All three decisions were expected, even with Kelly missing over half of the season due to a teres major strain.  The right-hander was limited to 73 2/3 innings over 13 starts, with a 4.03 ERA and some pretty unimpressive Statcast numbers, save for a solid 6.3% walk rate.

Assuming good health for Kelly next year, however, the $6MM decision (there was a $1MM buyout attached) was still an easy one for Arizona to make, given how well he has generally pitched over his six seasons in a Diamondbacks uniform.  Kelly didn’t make his MLB debut until age 30, after the D’Backs signed him to return to North America after a successful four-season run in the KBO League.  Over the course of two separate contracts with Arizona, Kelly has now earned $37.5MM over a seven-year span since returning from South Korea.

The D’Backs were hoping for more reclamation success when they signed McGough to a two-year, $6.25MM deal in the 2022-23 offseason, as McGough had pitched well over four seasons with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball.  Unfortunately, McGough posted a 4.73 ERA in 70 1/3 innings out of Arizona’s bullpen in 2023, and then a 7.44 ERA in 32 2/3 frames this season.  The right-hander’s home run and walk rates were constant issues, while McGough’s strikeout rate also plummeted from 28.6% in 2023 to just 16.7% this season.

Pederson almost exclusively faced right-handed pitching this season, and was utilized only as a designated hitter.  Albeit within this limited scope, Pederson enjoyed a monster year, hitting .275/.393/.515 with 23 homers over 449 plate appearances.  Among all position-player free agents, only six posted a higher fWAR than Pederson’s 3.0 mark in 2024, and only Juan Soto had a higher wRC+ than Pederson’s 151.

While Pederson resisted being a full-time platoon player or DH earlier in his career, embracing his specialist role has obvious upside, and could lead to another nice payday as he enters his age-33 season.  No shortage of teams could use Pederson’s power, and a return to the D’Backs is certainly a possibility given how well the veteran slugger performed in his first season in Arizona.  Randal Grichuk also declined his end of a mutual option, leaving the Diamondbacks without both pieces of their unofficial lefty-righty platoon.  Depending on the asking prices, the D’Backs could perhaps look to re-sign one of Pederson or Grichuk, and then look another complementary bat to fill the other side of the virtual platoon.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Transactions Joc Pederson Merrill Kelly Scott McGough

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Yankees Decline Club Option On Anthony Rizzo

By Mark Polishuk | November 2, 2024 at 10:48am CDT

The Yankees announced that they have declined their 2025 club option on Anthony Rizzo, and the veteran first baseman is now a free agent.  It was an $11MM decision for the team, as Rizzo will receive a $6MM buyout instead of the $17MM salary he would’ve received if the option had been exercised.

The move probably ends Rizzo’s tenure of three-plus seasons in the Bronx, which began after he was a trade deadline pickup from the Cubs in July 2021.  He hit well enough that the Yankees re-signed him to a two-year, $32MM deal that winter, and since that deal contained an opt-out clause after the first season, Rizzo parlayed that opt-out into another two-year, $40MM pact the following offseason.

Rizzo’s 2022 season was easily his best in New York, as he hit .224/.338/.480 with 32 homers over 548 plate appearances.  He was also off to a hot start in the first two months of the 2023 campaign before his career was altered by a collision at first base with Fernando Tatis Jr. on May 28, 2023.  Rizzo picked up what was deemed as a neck injury on the play and returned to action after sitting out a few games, yet he then went into a brutal slump over the next two-plus months until finally going on the IL at the start of August.  Rizzo was diagnosed with post-concussion syndrome, which naturally led to quite a bit of controversy over how Rizzo was both misdiagnosed in the first place, and why his head-related injury went seemingly unnoticed for so long.

That IL placement ended Rizzo’s 2023 season, and he returned to more bad injury luck this year when he fractured his right forearm after another awkward collision at first base in June.  Rizzo went on the 60-day injured list and didn’t return until the start of September, and he then suffered further injury when he had two fingers broken by a Ryan Borucki pitch near the end of the regular season.  The broken fingers kept Rizzo out of the Yankees’ ALDS matchup with the Royals, though he returned to hit a respectable .267/.421/.300 over 38 PA in the ALCS and World Series.

Since Opening Day 2023, Rizzo has hit only .237/.315/.358 over 796 regular-season plate appearances, over 191 of 324 games.  His translates to 0.6 fWAR and a below-average 91 wRC+, and since Rizzo turned 35 last August, it made for a pretty easy call for the Yankees in declining the option.

The health question is clearly paramount for Rizzo as he returns to the open market, as possible suitors will surely have concerns of what Rizzo still has in the tank after 14 Major League seasons.  His track record and respected locker room presence probably means that he should be able to land some kind of big league contract for a low guaranteed salary, if likely as a platoon bat rather than a regular at first base.  A return to the Yankees at a lower salary seems possible, but the likelier scenario is that New York either fortifies the lineup with a bigger bat at first base, or perhaps rotates DJ LeMahieu and others through the position.

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New York Yankees Newsstand Transactions Anthony Rizzo

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Emilio Pagan Exercises Player Option With Reds

By Mark Polishuk | November 2, 2024 at 10:29am CDT

The Reds announced that right-hander Emilio Pagan has exercised his $8MM player option for the 2025 season.  Pagan inked a two-year, $16MM contract with Cincinnati last winter that included an opt-out clause after the first season, and the reliever has chosen to forego a $250K buyout and a return trip to free agency.

There wasn’t much suspense in Pagan’s decision, as he missed just short of three months of the 2024 season due to a lat strain.  The injury limited to Pagan to 38 innings in as many appearances, marking the lowest career total in either category for Pagan during any of his seven regulation-length MLB seasons (Pagan tossed 22 innings in 22 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign).

Pagan’s first season in Cincinnati saw him post a 4.50 ERA, but a much more impressive 3.19 SIERA.  An inflated .351 BABIP undermined some solidly above-average strikeout (28.1%) and walk (7%) rates, though Pagan did allow a lot of hard contact.  Even with this favorable set of advanced metrics, it makes a lot of sense that the 33-year-old Pagan would prefer to lock in $7.75MM of extra guaranteed salary rather than test the market on the heels of what he surely views as a middling platform year.

Pagan’s bottom-line results haven’t always been consistent, though he isn’t far removed from a strong 2023 campaign (with the Twins) that helped him land that $16MM deal in the first place.  It isn’t a coincidence that Pagan’s 2023 season included by far the lowest home run rate (5.3%) of his career, as the righty has long had difficulty in keeping the ball in the park.  Those issues returned with a 12.5% homer rate in 2024, just slightly bettering his 12.8% career mark.

With Pagan returning and Brent Suter signed to a new contract, the Reds’ bullpen will have some familiar faces back, even if Buck Farmer and swingmen Nick Martinez and Jakob Junis are now all heading for free agency.  Getting Alexis Diaz back on track is surely the Reds’ top bullpen concern heading into 2025, though having Pagan stay healthy and deliver his usual type of innings-eating season will surely also help.

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Cincinnati Reds Transactions Emilio Pagan

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Dodgers Notes: Hernandez, Flaherty, Kershaw, Freeman

By Mark Polishuk | November 2, 2024 at 9:24am CDT

Teoscar Hernandez and trade deadline pickup Jack Flaherty are heading to free agency after playing major roles in the Dodgers’ World Series triumph, and both players told reporters (including MLB.com’s Juan Toribio and SportsNet LA’s David Vassegh) that they would like to return to Los Angeles for an encore.

“My hopes are really high.  Like I’ve said before, the Dodgers are the priority, obviously,” Hernandez said.  “I’m going to do everything in my power to come back….I want us to be here.  I want us to be part of this.  I have so many good memories here.  I’ve learned a lot as a player, as a person.  It feels great to be part of this.”

“I love this city.  I never want to leave,” Flaherty told Vassegh, with the words perhaps carrying a bit of extra weight since Flaherty was born in Burbank and grew up in Los Angeles.  This doesn’t necessarily mean that Flaherty would give the Dodgers a hometown discount, though naturally playing close to home gives the Dodgers (and theoretically the Angels) an extra edge that other potential free-agent suitors can’t match.

It isn’t surprising to hear players on any team (whether world champions or not) express an open desire to re-sign with their current teams, and feelings could change as the free agent market develops.  Of course, winning a title again underlines the fact that L.A. should be a contending team for years to come, giving the Dodgers even more flexibility in picking and choosing how they’ll construct their 2025 roster.

Re-signing Hernandez would bring another big bat back into the lineup and check off the left field question mark in one fell swoop.  Though the slugger is entering his age-32 season, he is also coming off one of the best years of his nine MLB seasons, and he further showed his value with a big playoff performance.  On the flip side, Hernandez would surely reject a qualifying offer, putting the Dodgers in line for a compensatory draft pick if Hernandez signed elsewhere.  If Los Angeles wanted to give Andy Pages more playing time in left field or perhaps keep the position open for another outfielder (even a big name like Juan Soto), the Dodgers could opt to walk away from Hernandez and just view their one-year alliance as a total win for both parties.

Both Hernandez and Flaherty were looking to bounce back after shaky 2024 seasons, and Flaherty likewise answered some critics by posting a 3.17 ERA across 162 combined regular-season innings with the Tigers and Dodgers.  The right-hander’s postseason performance was a lot more inconsistent, yet Flaherty was important simply because he was a proper starting pitcher within the injury-ravaged Dodgers’ staff.  On paper, most of Los Angeles’ injured pitchers will be ready to go by Opening Day 2025, yet the team will surely look to solidify this group with at least one other starter to provide some durability as well as quality innings.

Clayton Kershaw is one of those pitchers with a murky health status, as the longtime Dodger ace is set to undergo a pair of surgeries on his left knee and toe.  Kershaw pitched only 30 regular-season innings in 2024 due to bone spurs in his toe, his recovery from a shoulder surgery from last November, and this heretofore unknown torn meniscus in his left knee.

The southpaw has already said he is planning to pitch in 2025, and reiterated to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and other reporters that “I’ll be back, somehow” for an 18th season with the Dodgers.  This might not necessarily come to pass, however, just by Kershaw exercising his $10MM player option for 2025, as Kershaw might also look to work out a new contract with L.A. that would presumably give both gives some flexibility for the future.  Several of the Dodgers’ extensions in recent years have involved tacking an extra option year or two onto a shorter-term deal, so it seems quite possible the club could again explore such a contract with Kershaw.

In other Dodger news, the end of the playoffs also acts as the time when players traditionally come clean about any hidden injuries they’ve been playing through in October.  It was already known that Freddie Freeman was playing despite an ankle sprain and bone bruise, yet ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that Freeman also suffered broken costal cartilage in his rib while taking batting practice just prior to the start of the Dodgers’ NLDS matchup with the Padres.

The first baseman still played in four of the five games in that series as well as four of the Dodgers’ six NLCS games with the Mets, though Freeman was hitting only .219/.242/.219 in his first 33 playoff plate appearances.  The four days’ off between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series provided Freeman with a chance to fully rest and reset, and he somewhat miraculously felt much better heading into Game 1, when he kicked off his World Series MVP performance.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Notes Clayton Kershaw Freddie Freeman Jack Flaherty Teoscar Hernandez

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Dodgers Expected To Be In On Juan Soto’s Free Agent Market

By Mark Polishuk | October 27, 2024 at 11:23pm CDT

The Dodgers’ focus on Juan Soto is currently directed towards figuring how to get the slugger out during the remainder of the World Series, but once the offseason begins, the club could be looking to add Soto to its own lineup.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Dodgers are interested in Soto and will start more of a full-fledged pursuit “if he’s interested” if coming to Los Angeles.

As Heyman notes, the Dodgers’ deep pockets have allowed them to at least check in on virtually every major free agent in recent years, so if anything, it would be unusual if L.A. didn’t have Soto on its offseason wish list.  The Dodgers are also one of the few teams that can reasonably meet Soto’s asking price, which is widely expected to be the most upfront guaranteed money ever given to a baseball player.  The “upfront” caveat is necessary since Shohei Ohtani’s $700MM deal is so heavily deferred that the contract is worth around $437.8MM in present value, and Soto’s next deal is expected to surpass the $500MM mark.

According to RosterResource, the Dodgers already have roughly $257.2MM committed to their 2025 payroll, as well as a $253.1MM estimate on their luxury tax number.  The latter again puts the Dodgers over the tax threshold ($241MM) for next season, and naturally adding Soto for a minimum of a $50MM average annual value would put the club over the highest tax penalty tier of $301MM.  Since Los Angeles has already been a tax-paying team for the last four seasons, crossing the $301MM threshold would more than double the size of the team’s tax on any overages beyond the $241MM mark.

Of course, the luxury tax has clearly not been a major concern for the Dodgers in their pursuit of top-tier talent.  With Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Will Smith signed through the rest of the decade and Freddie Freeman and Tyler Glasnow both signed through at least 2027, the Dodgers won’t be ducking under the tax line any time soon, and the financial penalty is offset by the simple fact that the team is a revenue-generating juggernaut.

There are plenty of obvious reasons why Soto would have his own interest in joining a perennial contender like the Dodgers, though geography continues to be the lingering question surrounding Soto’s impending free agency.  While Soto and Padres owner Peter Seidler made some headway in extension talks prior to Seidler’s passing a year ago, Heyman repeats the long-held belief that Soto would prefer to play on an East Coast team, all things being equal.  This could make the Yankees or Mets the favorites to sign him this winter, as the two New York teams can better fit Soto’s preferences of both location and contract.

While the Yankees and Mets alone could generate a nice bidding war, Soto and agent Scott Boras would certainly have a vested interest in keeping other teams in the hunt, be it the Dodgers or other potential suitors like the Giants, Blue Jays, or Nationals.  If the Dodgers perceive that Soto’s interest in coming to L.A. is fairly limited, the team could easily move onto any number of other options on the free agent market.

For instance, re-signing Teoscar Hernandez would be much less expensive than signing Soto, and Hernandez is already a known quantity in Los Angeles and a big offensive force in his own right.  Heyman also figures the Dodgers will look to add another big pitcher to its injury-ravaged rotation, even though Ohtani, Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and others are expected to be healthy by Opening day.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Juan Soto

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Latest On White Sox Managerial Search

By Mark Polishuk | October 27, 2024 at 10:21pm CDT

Reports from earlier today removed a couple of names from consideration as the next White Sox manager, though the team’s search continues to be seemingly pretty fluid.  Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz is a new name in the mix according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (links to X), while interim manager Grady Sizemore is still in the running and Tigers bench coach George Lombard is also no longer a candidate.

Since the White Sox and Marlins are the only teams currently looking for a new skipper, many of the same candidates are appearing in both searches, with Albernaz’s name the latest crossover.  Albernaz has already interviewed in Miami and is considered one of the favorites for the position, as he has previous working relationships with both president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and assistant GM Gabe Kapler.

Like the White Sox, however, it isn’t yet entirely clear how close the Marlins might be to making an actual hire, or if any other candidates might still emerge.  Lombard and Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough both interviewed with Miami and are apparently still under consideration for that job, even if Chicago is moving in another direction.

Albernaz (who turns 42 later this week) just completed his first season in Cleveland, after working as the Giants’ bullpen/catching coach over the 2019-22 seasons.  This makes him a known quantity to White Sox pitching advisor Brian Bannister, who was San Francisco’s director of pitching for the last three of Albernaz’s seasons in the Bay Area.  The Giants job marked Albernaz’s first role on a big league coaching staff, as he spent the previous five seasons as a manager, coach, and coordinator in the Rays’ farm system.

The 2024 season was also Sizemore’s first time on a Major League staff, and his first pro coaching job at any level.  After Pedro Grifol was fired in August, Sizemore was something of a surprise choice as Chicago’s interim manager, and he led the team to a 13-32 record in the final stretch of what ended up as a singularly disastrous 121-loss season.  GM Chris Getz said Sizemore would continue to be a candidate within the team’s search for a full-time bench boss, but Sizemore’s coaching contract runs through the 2025 season, so he might well be back anyway in some capacity if he isn’t retained as manager.

The list of known candidates still in the running for the White Sox position include Sizemore, Albernaz, former Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, former Angels manager Phil Nevin, Rangers associate manager Will Venable, Dodgers bench coach Danny Lehmann, and Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso.

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Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Craig Albernaz George Lombard Grady Sizemore

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Mark Polishuk | October 27, 2024 at 9:31pm CDT

Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat

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MLBTR Chats

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Red Sox Hire Dillon Lawson As Assistant Hitting Coach

By Mark Polishuk | October 27, 2024 at 3:53pm CDT

The Red Sox announced that Dillon Lawson has been promoted to the role of assistant hitting coach.  Lawson had been with the Sox for the last year as the club’s minor league hitting coordinator, and he’ll now take over the role left open by Luis Ortiz, who was one of six coaches Boston announced wouldn’t be returning for the 2025 season.  Last week, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam suggested that Lawson was seen as a logical candidate for the assistant hitting coach job.

This will be Lawson’s second stint on a big league coaching staff, after his previous job as the Yankees’ hitting coach for the 2022 season and the first half of the 2023 season.  Somewhat infamously, Lawson became the first coach longtime Yankees GM Brian Cashman ever fired partway through a season, as Cashman installed former MLB veteran Sean Casey as New York’s new hitting coach as the team resumed play after the All-Star break.  The change didn’t work, as the Yankees actually had a lower wRC+ (92) under Casey than under Lawson (96).

The 39-year-old Lawson had a long coaching career in college ball, including a year as the University of Missouri’s hitting coach in 2017 that was sandwiched between his first two jobs with a Major League team.  Lawson worked as a hitting coach for two separate Astros Single-A affiliates in 2016 and 2018, and then moved on to join the Yankees as a minor league hitting coordinator for the 2019-21 seasons.

Peter Fatse is Boston’s lead hitting coach, with Ben Rosenthal and now Lawson acting as assistants.  The Red Sox ranked in the top ten in most offensive categories in 2024, though a team-wide slump over the last six weeks of the season curtailed Boston’s late bid for a wild card spot.

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Boston Red Sox

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AL Central Notes: Warren, White Sox, Manfred, Caglianone

By Mark Polishuk | October 26, 2024 at 2:55pm CDT

The Tigers had interest in right-hander Will Warren during their trade talks with the Yankees this past summer, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports.  The two clubs reportedly had a provisional agreement involving Jack Flaherty relatively close to being completed before New York backed out due to concerns over Flaherty’s medical records, though it should be noted that Heyman didn’t directly say that Warren was part of whatever trade package the Yankees were prepared to send to Detroit.  Flaherty instead was dealt to the Dodgers for two position players, one of whom (Trey Sweeney) ended up playing an important role in the Tigers’ surprising late-season surge to a wild card berth.

Ironically, Warren ended up making his MLB debut on the trade deadline day of July 30, and he posted a 10.32 ERA over his first 22 2/3 innings in the big leagues.  He also had a 5.91 ERA over 109 2/3 innings at Triple-A, though his minor league numbers were a little skewed by a nightmarish four-start stretch in May.  Scouts and evaluators generally view Warren as a back-end starter or perhaps a long reliever at the MLB level, and while the Yankees naturally want to keep pitching depth on hand, Warren could be a relatively expendable prospect in terms of future trade possibilities (with Detroit or any other teams).

More from around the AL Central…

  • Jerry Reinsdorf’s apparent willingness to discuss selling the White Sox has led to increased speculation that the team could be moved to a new city, though MLB commissioner Rob Manfred downplayed that idea in a recent appearance on FS1’s “Breakfast Ball” show.  (Hat tip to Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.)  “Chicago is an anchor city for us.  I think that the White Sox are in a difficult situation. I think the location of the stadium is tough, but I have confidence that things are going to work out in Chicago and that we’re going to continue to have two teams in Chicago,” Manfred said.  This allusion to Reinsdorf’s desire to get a new ballpark built is another factor in the situation, and Van Schouwen hears that Reinsdorf “has grown increasingly skeptical” about the chances of civic and state officials signing off on a deal to built a new stadium for the White Sox within Chicago’s South Loop area.  Of course, some gamesmanship could be at play here, Reinsdorf’s past threats to move the Sox to St. Petersburg in the late 1980’s helped get Guaranteed Rate Field built in the first place.
  • Jac Caglianone’s power bat as a first baseman at the University of Florida helped make him the sixth overall pick of the 2024 draft, but the Royals prospect hasn’t given up on the idea of being a two-way player.  “I’m the type of person where I get super driven and I get fixated on things,” Caglianone told The Athletic’s Noah Furtado.  “So if I have the opportunity to do it, I’m going to jump on it.  I won’t really accept failure.  I’ll keep pushing at it until it clicks.”  A Tommy John surgery in 2021 got Caglianone more focused on hitting and perhaps directed him towards Florida instead of entering the 2021 draft as a high schooler, and while Caglianone still showed premium velocity as a college pitcher, control is the big concern.  The Royals have thus far used him only as a first baseman and DH during his brief pro career (in high-A ball and in the Arizona Fall League), but the club hasn’t entirely closed the door on Caglianone as a pitcher.  As K.C. director of player development Mitch Maier put it, Caglianone’s potential is “a rare opportunity that has to be thought through.”
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Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals New York Yankees Notes Jac Caglianone Jack Flaherty Jerry Reinsdorf Rob Manfred Will Warren

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Trade Candidate: Josh Naylor

By Mark Polishuk | October 26, 2024 at 12:30pm CDT

Since Josh Naylor didn’t sign an extension with the Guardians during his pre-arbitration years, it has always seemed like there has been a ticking clock on the first baseman’s time in the Cleve.  With the exceptions of Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco agreeing to below-market extensions to stay with the franchise, a look at Cleveland’s extension history over the last 17 years (hat tip to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker) reveals the simple truth that the Guards virtually never sign players to long-term extensions for significant salaries once they get within a year or two of free agency.

Naylor is now entering his final season of team control, and is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to land a $12MM salary in his last trip through the arbitration process.  It’s a nice raise from his $6.5MM salary in 2024, and since arbitration calculations tend to heavily weigh traditional counting stats, Naylor will handsomely cash in from posting a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBI.

A peek at the more advanced metrics is a little more troublesome, as Naylor’s 118 wRC+ (from a .243/.320/.456 slash line in 633 plate appearances) was solid but not quite elite, and a drop from his 127 wRC+ in 2023.  That prior season saw Naylor enjoy a .326 BABIP, while the batted-ball luck turned on him this season to the tune of a .246 BABIP.  Most of Naylor’s production also came in the first three months of the season, and it could be that the career-high 633 PA led to Naylor wearing down as the year progressed.  On the plus side, Naylor remained above-average in most Statcast categories, and he was a far more patient hitter than in years past, with a 9.2% walk rate that is also a career best.

All this being said, even “only” a repeat of his 2024 season should put Naylor (who turns 28 in June) in line for a lucrative free agent deal when he reaches the open market next winter.  It also very likely puts him out of Cleveland’s price range over the long term, and quite possibly even for the 2025 campaign.

The Guards had some increased attendance at Progressive Field during the regular season and they got a nice revenue boost from hosting six playoff games, yet the organization will also experience some level of dropoff in their broadcasting dollars.  MLB itself will now be handling the local distribution of Guardians games after the Diamond Sports Group backed out of its original contracts with the Guards and 10 other teams, which means that the Guardians will receive some but not all of the broadcast revenue they would’ve received under the terms of their previous deal.

In a world where the Guardians were still getting all of that TV money, odds are Naylor would still have been traded, just because that’s how the Guards have traditionally done business.  And of course, it isn’t an absolute guarantee that the first baseman will be on the move this offseason.  President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti might not find an offer to his liking, or ownership could approve a slightly higher payroll to make another run with what looks like a winning core.  Naylor could then be shopped at the deadline if the Guardians aren’t in contention, or kept through his last remaining season of team control and then very likely let go in free agency.  That latter scenario would at least put Cleveland in position to land a draft pick as compensation if Naylor rejected a qualifying offer and signed elsewhere.

Selling high on Naylor this winter might land more than just a draft pick, however.  Naylor’s name has already surfaced in past trade rumors, as the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates all reportedly had talks with the Guardians about Naylor last winter.  Chicago’s subsequent acquisition of Michael Busch probably takes them out of the running, yet Seattle and Pittsburgh are both still targeting first base help, and offensive help in general.

While neither the M’s or Pirates are expected to be big spenders in free agency anyway, Naylor stands out as a major backup plan for any team that misses out on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker — the two biggest first basemen on the free agent market.  For one year and around $12MM, Naylor isn’t a huge splurge even for smaller-market clubs, or clubs like the Guardians who are facing broadcasting concerns.  Broadly looking at teams who have a clear or potential need at first base or DH, any of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Rays, Giants, or Padres (Naylor’s former team) could join the Pirates and Mariners as potential suitors.  The Tigers or Royals could also technically fit on this list but Cleveland is less likely to move Naylor to a division rival.

Since the Guardians have a lot of uncertainty in their starting rotation next year, teams that have pitching to offer might have a leg up in trade talks.  The Guards’ usual tactic of pursuing at least one prospect and at least one immediate MLB-ready player in trades could be limited by the fact that Naylor is only controlled for one season, since Naylor doesn’t have the ceiling that, say, Francisco Lindor did when Cleveland dealt the star shortstop to the Mets during the 2020-21 offseason.

There’s also the matter of how the Guardians will replace Naylor in their lineup.  Cleveland’s acquisition of prospect Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in 2023 was seen as a potential lead-in for Naylor’s departure, and Manzardo hit .234/.282/.421 (for a 98 wRC+) over his first 156 Major League PA this season.  The Guards might be confident enough in a combination of Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, and super-utilityman David Fry to take over first base in the event that Naylor is traded, or a lower-cost veteran could be acquired to provide more depth.  It can easily be argued that a Guardians team even with Naylor back is still in need of more offense, so trading Naylor could put Cleveland in need of finding an even bigger bat for the outfield.

The trade-and-replace routine has become familiar over the years in Cleveland, and the fanbase might grit their teeth at the idea of dealing away another prominent player for payroll-related reasons.  Moving Naylor in particular has a unique layer of potential awkwardness since his brother Bo will presumably remain on Cleveland’s roster, thus breaking up the fun idea of a family connection at the heart of the lineup.

Still, the Guardians’ tactic of trading players rather than just letting them walk in free agency has allowed the club to continually reload both the farm system and the active roster.  Antonetti doesn’t have a spotless track record with his deals, yet Antonetti’s high batting average on the trade market has helped the Guards post winning records in 10 of the last 12 seasons, with seven postseason trips in that span.  Finding the right match on a Naylor trade this winter might result in Cleveland getting back to the playoffs next fall.

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Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals Trade Candidate Josh Naylor

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