MLB Trade Rumors’ annual Offseason Outlook series is back, as we break down what all 30 teams could have in store for their roster machinations this winter. Going forward, the Outlook series is exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, and that link provides details on how to sign up for an annual membership.
This post acts as the landing page for all 30 entries, as the series is now complete.
AL West
AL Central
AL East
NL West
NL Central
NL East
Jon Berti was the lone member of the Yankees’ ALCS roster that wasn’t included on the club’s roster for the World Series, though beyond tactics, health was the key factor in Berti’s absence. Manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and other media that Berti suffered a flexor strain in his right hip while running the bases in Game 4 of the ALCS. Berti entered that game in the top of the ninth as a pinch-runner for Anthony Rizzo, came around to score what ended up as the game’s winning run, and then played second base in the bottom half of the frame.
“Unfortunately, time ran out for [Berti] to be ready,” Boone said. “So that’s a blow for us. I feel for him because he was playing a really important role for us, especially in those first two rounds.”
With Rizzo sidelined by two broken fingers until the ALCS, Berti found himself in the unlikely role of New York’s starting first baseman for two ALDS games against the Royals, and again for Game 3 of the ALCS (with Rizzo on the bench against Guardians left-hander Matthew Boyd). Though Berti has carved out a niche as a super-utility player over his seven Major League seasons, he had never before played first base during his entire pro career before taking on the cold corner for this year’s playoffs. Berti can only watch from the sidelines as his teammates will try to dig themselves out of an 0-1 hole in the Series after yesterday’s heartbreaking walkoff loss.
More from around the AL East…
The Pirates were 54-52 on August 3 before a ten-game losing streak tanked their hopes of contention, and the Bucs ultimately finished with the same 76-86 record as they had in 2023. Amidst some larger questions about how well the rebuild is progressing, there will be a clear focus on upgrading the lineup this winter.
Guaranteed Contracts
2025 financial commitments: $41.5MM
Total future commitments: $208MM
Option Decisions
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
Paul Skenes lived up to the hype, wowing the baseball world with a 1.99 ERA over 133 innings and looking all the world like a franchise player. Though he was somewhat overshadowed by Skenes and spent almost eight weeks on the injured list due to a lat strain, Jared Jones also had an impressive rookie season. Behind these two star rookies, Mitch Keller was his usual solid self, Bailey Falter pitched well in his first full season as a Pirate, and Luis Ortiz had a lot of success after moving from the bullpen back into the rotation at midseason.
Since Marco Gonzales' club option won't be exercised, this group stands as the Pirates' provisional starting five heading into Spring Training. However, Johan Oviedo will also be healthy after missing all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Down on the farm, top-100 prospects Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Braxton Ashcraft are all knocking on the door for their MLB debuts, and other pitching prospects like Mike Burrows (who did toss his first 3 1/3 big league innings in 2024), Hunter Barco, and Anthony Solometo aren't far behind.
In short, Pittsburgh might soon become Pitch-burgh, with all of these young, controllable, and (except for Keller) inexpensive arms either in the majors or coming up the pipeline. Developing this much promising starting pitching is no small thing, and with Skenes leading the way, general manager Ben Cherington can certainly point to the Pirates' rotation as the key to the team's rebuilding efforts.
However, this rebuild has now resulted in six straight losing seasons, with the last five coming under Cherington's watch. While nobody expected Rome to be built in a day, the last two years have shown just enough promise to leave Pittsburgh fans disappointed when things fizzled out, and left wondering when exactly the Bucs will be turning the corner towards real contention.
As the Padres and Nationals were negotiating the blockbuster Juan Soto trade in advance of the 2022 trade deadline, the Nats were able to obtain such top-tier young talents as CJ Abrams, James Wood, and MacKenzie Gore as part of the six-player trade package. One player Washington didn’t land was Jackson Merrill, though Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Nationals asked about Merrill as part of the trade talks.
Though Merrill was the 27th overall pick of the 2021 draft, his prospect stock didn’t really start to take off until he started to post big numbers for the Padres’ rookie league and A-ball affiliates during the 2022 season. In fact, injuries limited Merrill to only 25 games in 2022 at the time of the Soto trade, so the Nationals weren’t working off a lot of scouting information when they checked into Merrill’s possible availability. Though the Friars gave up a lot to bring Soto to San Diego, it looks like they made a canny move in keeping Merrill, as his tremendous rookie season helped lead the Padres to the NLDS this season. Merrill hit .292/.326/.500 with 24 home runs over 593 plate appearances, and (even more remarkably) played strong defense as San Diego’s everyday center fielder despite never before playing center during his pro career.
Some other items from around baseball…
Reports surfaced last week that the Rangers had given permission for Donnie Ecker to interview with the White Sox about their managerial opening, but Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) wrote that Ecker is no longer under consideration for the job. Ecker will instead return for what will presumably be his fourth season as the Rangers’ bench coach and offensive coordinator.
Ecker’s departure from the search could simply be due to a personal preference to remain in Texas, rather than necessarily a sign that the White Sox are getting any closer to hiring their new skipper. SoxMachine’s James Fegan described the managerial search last week as still being short of any official list of finalists, even though the team had already eliminated some candidates while still aiming to speak to some other names working for teams still alive in the playoffs. Dodgers coaches Clayton McCullough and Danny Lehmann are two names linked to the Sox that might fit this description, though a wide range of names are rumored to be on Chicago’s list. Most of the rumored candidates (like Ecker) would be first-time managers at the big league level, though Skip Schumaker and Phil Nevin both have past experience running MLB clubs.
More from both the AL and NL Central…
After a strong first season in Nippon Professional Baseball, Franmil Reyes is planning an encore, as the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters announced that the slugger has signed a new contract with the team for the 2025 season. Japanese media reports from last weekend suggested that Reyes was likely to stay with the Fighters and the club was prepared to offer him a multi-year contract, but he’ll instead return on a one-year deal.
In taking the one-year contract, Reyes might well be keeping his options open about a possible return to the majors next winter, as another big season in NPB would help his case for a guaranteed contract with a North American team. Reyes hit .290/.348/.564 with 25 homers over 368 plate appearances this season, mostly as a designated hitter and with a handful of appearances at first base. This production helped the Fighers to a second-place finish in the Pacific League and then a victory over the Chiba Lotte Marines in the first postseason round, though a sweep at the hands of the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks denied the Fighters a spot in the Japan Series.
It was a needed bounce-back season for Reyes after his MLB career seemed to stall out after a pair of very rough seasons. Reyes hit only .217/.268/.356 with 16 home runs over 538 PA with the Guardians, Cubs, and Royals in 2022-23, plus a stint in the Nationals’ farm system came and went without a big league call-up.
Reyes hit a much more impressive .260/.325/.503 with 92 homers in 1540 PA over his first four seasons in the majors, slugging 92 homers for San Diego and Cleveland. Though strikeouts were always a big part of his game and his shaky defense indicated a DH-only future, Reyes still seemed to be on track to be a three-true-outcomes type of force before his sudden decline. While Reyes was still making a lot of hard contact in 2022, his walk rate dropped off sharply and his strikeout rate continued to rise.
Reyes is still only 29 years old, with his 30th birthday coming up in July. He could well pursue a third act to his career back in the big leagues in the wake of what seems to be a successful second act in Japan, or perhaps likes it enough in NPB to eventually pursue a multi-year deal with the Fighters if he keeps hitting.
As the Marlins continue to look for their next manager, the club has lined up an interview with Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough about the position, Isaac Azout of Fish On First reports (via X). McCullough becomes the second candidate known to formally interview with Miami, after Tigers bench coach George Lombard.
This isn’t the first link between McCullough and the Marlins, as the team also interviewed him in their last managerial search two years ago, before Skip Schumaker was hired. Schumaker’s two-season tenure saw the team reach the postseason in 2023, yet owner Bruce Sherman’s desire to focus on the farm system led to former GM Kim Ng leaving the organization last offseason, and the subsequent hiring of Peter Bendix as the new president of baseball operations put the Marlins back into rebuild mode. As was widely expected, Schumaker also parted ways with the Marlins after this season, leaving the club once again in search of a new bench boss.
Though McCullough is now speaking with a new Miami front office, he’ll have a familiar face on hand in Marlins assistant GM Gabe Kapler. McCullough and Kapler worked together with the Dodgers when McCullough was the team’s minor league field coordinator and Kapler the director of player development, before Kapler left Los Angeles to become the Phillies’ manager in the 2017-18 offseason. Following stints managing both the Phillies and Giants, Kapler was hired by Bendix as Miami’s assistant GM last December.
Beyond the Marlins’ search in 2022, McCullough has been a candidate for several other managerial openings in recent years. Most immediately, he has been linked to the White Sox and their current vacancy, which puts even more on McCullough’s plate as he is preparing for interviews as well as helping the Dodgers get ready for the World Series. The Mets, Brewers, Guardians, and Royals all had McCullough under consideration for managerial jobs, and McCullough was reportedly a finalist in Kansas City before the team hired Matt Quatraro.
The 44-year-old McCullough has been the Dodgers’ first base coach for the last four seasons, after working as the minor league field coordinator since 2015. While McCullough doesn’t have any managerial experience at the MLB level, he did manage at multiple levels of the Blue Jays’ farm system during the 2007-14 seasons, as he turned to coaching soon after his minor league playing career ended in 2005.
Lombard, Giants assistant coach Alyssa Nakken, Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz and former Marlins bench coach Luis Urueta are the other candidates reportedly on Miami’s radar. It isn’t known how close the Marlins could be to making an actual hire, though it is possible that their search could be somewhat complicated by the Dodgers’ lengthy playoff run, if they’ve been waiting to speak with McCullough.
The Phillies won 87 games in 2022 and lost the World Series, won 90 games in 2023 and lost the NLCS, and then won 95 games and the NL East title this season but lost to the Mets in the NLDS. This mixture of progression and decline is becoming increasingly frustrating to a team built to win now, though with so much payroll already committed, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski might have to get creative in fixing some roster weaknesses.
Guaranteed Contracts
2025 financial commitments: $220,219,156
Total future commitments: $846,258,117
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
Free Agents
The warning lights on the Phillies' season started flashing well before the playoffs, as the team raced out to a dominant 45-19 start before posting a far more modest 50-48 record in its final 98 games. Such players as Trea Turner, Ranger Suarez and Alec Bohm cooled off after hot starts, injuries to Suarez and Spencer Turnbull exposed a lack of rotation depth, and the team's trade deadline additions had mixed results.
The most common rivalry in World Series history is being renewed for the first time since 1981, as the Dodgers and Yankees will meet for a record 12th time in the Fall Classic. New York holds an 8-3 lead in the previous matchups, which included such iconic baseball moments as Jackie Robinson’s steal of home, Don Larsen’s perfect game, Reggie Jackson’s three-homer performance, and many more.
Now, a modern set of superstar players will square off. Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Teoscar Hernandez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be among those trying to win their first World Series rings, while the likes of Juan Soto and Mookie Betts are looking to add to their already-storied October legacies.
The L.A. lineup was simply too much for the Mets in the NLCS, as the Dodgers scored 46 runs over the six games. While the Dodgers’ reliever-heavy pitching attack is still trying to cover innings amidst a lot of injuries to regular starters, the team is perhaps just pitching too well to really call it a “patchwork” staff any more — Los Angeles has recorded four shutouts in its last eight playoff games.
The New York offense was also too much for the Guardians in the ALCS, with Stanton and Soto in particular leading the way with a combined seven homers and 13 RBI over the five-game series. Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt have also formed a powerful three-man front in the rotation, and Luke Weaver’s late-season emergence as the Yankees’ closer has continued into a largely dominant postseason.
The Yankees are looking to add to their record total of 27 championships, though they are in a relative drought by the franchise’s lofty standards. This is only the second time in 21 seasons that New York has taken part in the World Series, with the only other appearance in that span coming in 2009 when the Yankees defeated the Phillies. The Dodgers have “only” seven titles to show from their 22 trips to the World Series, but they have the most recent victory, capturing the 2020 Series that followed the pandemic-shortened regular season.
Since the Dodgers won 98 regular-season games to the Yankees’ 94 wins, Los Angeles holds the home-field advantage, so the World Series is set to begin on Friday at Dodger Stadium. Just one question remains….what’s your prediction?
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The Red Sox are nearing a deal to hire Taylor Smith for an unspecified analytics-based role in the club’s front office, according to MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo. Smith could be joining the ranks as an assistant general manager, which would presumably also come with some type of VP title like Boston’s other four assistant GMs under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.
Smith had been working with the Rays as Tampa Bay’s director of predictive modeling. He has been with the organization since graduating from the University of Georgia in 2018, and Smith was initially hired as an analyst in Tampa’s research and development team. He’ll now head to a larger role in Boston, becoming the latest in a seemingly endless line of Rays staffers hired by other teams to try and learn from Tampa Bay’s consistent success in player development.
As McAdam wrote in another piece earlier this week, assistant GM Mike Groopman had been considered the “de facto overseer” of Boston’s analytics operations, but Groopman was being shifted into another role “with more of a focus on player acquisition.” It would seem that Smith will now be filling the gap left behind by Groopman’s role change, and it remains to be seen some more shuffling could be on the way.
Paul Toboni, another assistant GM, has been rumored to be the top in-house name to become Breslow’s official top lieutenant as Boston’s general manager, so if Toboni is promoted, the Red Sox would still have four AGMs (Smith, Groopman, Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero) in place. McAdam suggests that promoting Toboni might also be a way of keeping him within the organization, and away from GM vacancies with the Giants and Mets. There are some links between Toboni and other those jobs, as McAdam writes that Toboni is from the Bay Area, and he previously worked with Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns in the Brewers’ front office.
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