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Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualified Free Agent
Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.
To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2024 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series. The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $21.05MM. An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere. This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.
Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will have to give up if they sign qualified free agent.…
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays
Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2025 draft. Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks. The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded, as we saw last winter when the Orioles included their CBR-A pick to the Brewers as part of the Corbin Burnes trade package.
It is relatively rare to see teams from this group splurge on a big-ticket free agent, though Baltimore is expected to increase spending under new owner David Rubenstein. The Tigers also have plenty of payroll space and could look to build more aggressively around their young core, after Detroit unexpectedly made a run to the ALDS this season.
Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox
For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2025 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.
The White Sox and now the Cardinals are both rebuilding. The Padres can never be ruled out of making a splashy signing, but that seems unlikely given how the team has a lot of its own impending free agents to address, plus San Diego made a point of getting under the luxury tax threshold last offseason. Angels owner Arte Moreno has said his club plans to contend in 2025 and the payroll will go up, though that might not manifest itself in the form of signing a qualified free agent, given how often the Halos have been burned on such signings in the past.
Washington and Boston are both borderline candidates for a big free agent signing. The Nats are still technically in rebuild mode themselves, but could decide that the time is right to add some major veteran help to an intriguing mix of younger players. The Red Sox have generally eschewed pursuits of pricey free agents in recent years, though since they haven’t had a winning season since 2021, ownership might be again willing to be more aggressive in shopping at the high end of the market.
Team In Limbo: Blue Jays, Cubs
As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Jays and Cubs managed to sneak under the $237MM tax threshold. Roster Resource has both teams slightly above the threshold while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Cubs slightly over and the Blue Jays slightly under, so given how narrow the margins are, we’ll wait until the league issues its numbers before putting the two clubs in either the previous category or the next category.
Needless to say, both clubs are hoping for a reset on their luxury tax status, and lesser penalties for signing QO-rejecting free agents. The Jays and Cubs are also two of the teams facing the most pressure to win in 2025, and thus could be more open to making a big signing to help turn things around. If MLB’s calculations reveal that Toronto and Chicago did exceed the threshold this year, they’ll join the next group of…
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees
As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.
Astros GM Dana Brown has said his team “may have to get a little bit creative” with their spending given how many big contracts are already on the books. The same could be said for the Phillies and Braves as well, but it is also easy to see both teams remaining aggressive after falling short in the playoffs. The Rangers have a lot of money coming off the books but, given their uncertain broadcast revenue situation, could spend but still make a point of ducking back under the luxury tax line. San Francisco will be an intriguing team to watch, now that Buster Posey is running the front office and how the Giants already spent big to keep a pending free agent in the fold by extending Matt Chapman.
Since re-signing Juan Soto or re-signing Teoscar Hernandez wouldn’t cost anything in QO penalties, keeping those sluggers is likely the top priority for the Yankees and Dodgers, with other free agents perhaps as backup plans if Soto or Hernandez signed elsewhere. The Mets were relatively quiet in David Stearns’ first winter as president of baseball operations, some more big spending might be in the works if owner Steve Cohen wants to build on the club’s playoff run.
All this being said, the higher penalties for CBT payors can be deterrents to spending on qualified free agents in particular. This doesn’t mean the Yankees wouldn’t look to retain Soto or anything, but teams might prefer to make their big upgrades through trades, or perhaps with free agents who won’t have a QO attached to their services.
Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2024 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.
Each Team’s Draft Compensation For Losing A Qualified Free Agent
The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter worth $21.05MM) to eligible free agents. If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2024 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the QO and forego free agency altogether.
If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere. Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club….
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays
If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft. (For instance, the Twins received the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 draft when the Cardinals signed Sonny Gray to a three-year, $75MM contract last winter.) If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round. The 2024 draft didn’t have of these latter selections, but in 2023, these compensation picks were the 68th, 69th, and 70th overall selections.
The Brewers will surely issue Willy Adames a qualifying offer, and the Orioles are just as certain locks to extend QOs to both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. Christian Walker also seems pretty likely to receive a QO from the Diamondbacks. Michael Wacha is expected to decline his $16MM player option for 2025 and re-enter the free agency market, and thus the Royals could well decide to issue a qualifying offer to the veteran righty. Nick Martinez is a borderline candidate for a QO, just because $21.05MM is a steep price tag for a lower-payroll team like the Reds to give to a pitcher who might be best utilized as a swingman. Martinez is another player facing a decision on a player option, as he can opt out and leave $12MM on the table to again pursue free agency.
Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox
For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM). The Angels qualified for this bracket in 2023 by just barely squeezing under the tax line, thus enabling the team to receive the 74th overall pick as compensation when Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers.
This year’s free agent class offers a few borderline QO candidates from these six teams. Boston’s Tyler O’Neill and San Diego’s Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim could conceivably get qualifying offers, though the teams could be weighing the pros and cons right up to the QO deadline. In Kim’s case, the Padres will want all the information they can get about how the shortstop is faring in the early stages of his recovery from shoulder surgery.
Teams In Limbo: Blue Jays, Cubs
It should be noted that these lists of teams and their Competitive Balance Tax status won’t be finalized until the league releases its official numbers in December. It usually isn’t too difficult to figure out which teams surpass the $237MM tax threshold, and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do excellent work in calculating luxury tax estimates over the course of a season. MLB’s internal calculations could differ, however, or factor in some salary data that isn’t publicly known, so we won’t know for a while yet if Toronto and/or Chicago are tax payors or not.
The Cubs are just barely past the $237MM tax line in the view of both public websites — RosterResource has their 2024 tax number at slightly above $238.4MM and Cot’s has an even closer call of $237.2MM. The two sites split when it comes to the Blue Jays, as RR has them over the threshold at roughly $240.4MM, while Cot’s has the Jays under the threshold at around $234.98MM.
While this tax status may impact whether or not the Cubs and Blue Jays will pursue any QO-rejecting free agents, it’s a bit of a moot point here, as neither club has any free agents who seem like viable candidates for a qualifying offer. If Cody Bellinger exercises his opt-out clause, Chicago can’t issue him a QO since Bellinger already received one in the past.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees
If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2025 draft. In the 2024 draft, these were the 134th, 135th, and 136th overall picks.
Juan Soto (Yankees), Alex Bregman (Astros), Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers), Max Fried (Braves), and Pete Alonso (Mets) are all locks to receive qualifying offers. The Mets could also weigh offers for Sean Manaea or Luis Severino, with Manaea seen as very likely to opt out of the final year of his contract with New York.
AL East Notes: Rubenstein, Orioles, German, Rays, Red Sox
“I’m now 75 years old. It’s unlikely that I’ll be, you know, doing this for 20 more years,” Orioles majority owner David Rubenstein said in a recent interview with NPR (hat tip to Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball). “So I’ve got to speed up the effort to get [to] a World Series a lot sooner than maybe some younger owners would.”
This might be one of the clearer indications yet that the Orioles are in for their busiest offseasons in a long time, especially since the team is now coming off a pair of playoff appearances with nary a single win from five total postseason games. This is Rubenstein’s first winter since his ownership bought the team, and as GM Mike Elias implied during his end-of-season press conference, the O’s will have a lot more to spend than in recent years during the club’s rebuild, when the Angelos family was still in charge.
More from around the AL East….
- Sticking with the Orioles, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that the O’s “had no interest” in right-hander Domingo German in the past, which runs contrary to a report from the New York Post’s Mark W. Sanchez from last January. German signed with the Pirates on a minors contract last winter and had only a 7.84 ERA in seven appearances and 20 2/3 innings on the big league roster in 2024. Pittsburgh outrighted German off its 40-man roster in September and he elected free agency earlier this week. Given his poor recent results and his troubled off-the-field history, it remains to be seen if any MLB teams will take a flier on German for another minor league deal.
- The top Rays story remains the team’s likely need for a new temporary home to begin the 2025 season, as Tropicana Field sustained heavy damage due to Hurricane Milton. John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times shares some details about the insurance policies attached to the stadium, and the possibility that the city of St. Petersburg (which is funding the repairs) might simply decide that repairing the Trop isn’t worth it since the Rays’ new ballpark is set to open in 2028. “We’re going to try to figure out every avenue, both through insurance and otherwise, to try to make sure the Rays have a place to play in St. Petersburg. But we’re going to make sure that it’s a financially responsible decision,” city council member Copley Gerdes said. Romano opines that Orlando might check off the most boxes as the Rays’ interim home, as the team could play at the 9500-seat stadium on the ESPN Wide World Of Sports complex at Walt Disney World.
- The Red Sox promoted Kyle Boddy to the role of director of baseball science on an interim basis, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports (via X). The position appears to be a newly-created job within the Sox front office, as Brad Alberts is credited in the team’s directory as the “team lead” of baseball sciences, but there is no director position. Boddy founded the data-based Driveline Baseball training facility in 2012, and then moved into an official role with a big league club when he was the Reds’ pitching coordinator for the majority of the 2020-21 seasons. The Red Sox brought Boddy aboard last January as an advisor to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.
Extension Candidate: Riley Greene
As noted in the Tigers’ Offseason Outlook piece, the club has a lot of payroll flexibility, even with continued uncertainty about its future broadcasting contracts. Javier Baez and Colt Keith are the only Tigers players guaranteed money beyond the 2025 season, and that duo combines for $28MM in both 2026 and 2027.
Tarik Skubal will continue to get expensive through his two remaining seasons of arbitration control, but at a projected $8MM in 2025, even another big jump up to $16MM in 2026 is still a discount for a superstar pitcher. Jason Foley’s arb number will keep rising if he keeps posting saves, but Foley is only arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson won’t hit arb-eligibility until 2026, and the likes of Parker Meadows and Reese Olson will still be in their pre-arb years.
In short, there should be plenty of payroll space for Detroit to seek out some star talent this winter as the team looks to build on its surprise run to the ALDS. Beyond just external additions, the Tigers may well also look to lock up some of its young cornerstones, such as All-Star outfielder Riley Greene.
Selected fifth overall in the 2019 draft, Greene has long been viewed as a key piece of Detroit’s rebuilding efforts. He was a consensus top-six prospect in all of baseball heading into the 2022 season, when Greene made his Major League debut and hit .253/.321/.362 in his first 418 plate appearances in the Show. The development continued with 11 homers and a .288/.349/.447 slash line in 416 PA in 2023, though Greene’s playing time was limited by some notable injuries. He suffered a stress reaction in his left fibula that cost him over a month of action, and he didn’t play after September 1 due to a right elbow problem that eventually required a Tommy John surgery.
2024 wasn’t an entirely healthy season either for Greene, as he missed just shy of four weeks due to a hamstring strain. However, he still achieved his best season yet, hitting .262/.348/.479 with 25 home runs over 584 PA, translating into a 135 wRC+. Most importantly, Greene’s return from the injured list on August 18 helped the Tigers spark their already-legendary late-season surge. Detroit went 31-13 over its last 44 games, going from also-rans to a wild card berth in a manner of weeks.
Greene’s production after his IL stint (.786 OPS) wasn’t as strong as his .842 OPS pre-injury, and he hit only .231/.355/.269 over 31 PA in the postseason. Still, Greene’s importance to Detroit’s lineup can’t be overstated, as he was easily the Tigers’ most consistent overall hitter. Keith and Meadows didn’t start to contribute much at the plate until later in the season, and Carpenter was limited by both injury (about 2.5 months missed due to a lumbar spine stress fracture) and a lack of production against left-handed pitching.
Beyond the bottom-line numbers, Greene made some big gains on the advanced-metric front. He went from 30 barrels and an 11.3% barrel rate in 2023 to 48 barrels and a 13.4% barrel rate this season, putting him in the 87th and 90th percentile of all hitters in each respective category. Greene’s walk rate made a seismic leap up to 11%, far beyond his 8.4BB% in 2023 that was slightly below the league average. While Greene still strikes out a lot, he at least did a better job of laying off pitches outside the zone, with a very impressive 23.1% chase rate. Greene’s .329 BABIP indicated that he still received a good deal of batted-ball luck, but that number was well beneath the .369 BABIP he posted in 2022-23.
Defensively, Greene’ struggles in center field and Meadows’ excellent glovework up the middle necessitated a position change near the end of Greene’s 2023 campaign. Greene was installed as the everyday left fielder this season and became a big defensive asset, with +14 Defensive Runs Saved, +4 Outs Above Average, and a +11.7 UZR/150 over 700 2/3 innings in left. Between Meadows’ presence and top prospect Max Clark also viewed as a center field-capable outfielder, it looks like Greene will be staying in left field for the foreseeable future, which isn’t an issue since his bat plays at the position. Comerica Park’s spacious outfield demands more from Tigers outfielders regardless of position, so Greene’s ability to deliver plus glovework in left field is no small feat.
There’s a whole lot to like about Greene’s early-career results, and he only just turned 24 years old in late September. Barring a very low Super Two cutoff point, Greene won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025-26 offseason, and thus he’ll remain an immense bargain on a pre-arb minimal salary next season.
With four full years of team control over Greene, the Tigers might not feel too much pressure to work out an extension just yet. Greene’s injury history might stand out to the team as a bit of a red flag, between the hamstring and tibula problems, the TJ surgery, and the broken foot Greene suffered in Spring Training 2022. That said, those injuries might also lower Greene’s price point to some limited extent, and the outfielder could be more open to locking in some guaranteed money if he has any lingering concerns about his durability.
A pretty wide variance exists amidst the recent extensions signed by players within two and three years of MLB service time, with the highest end of those extensions represented by the mega-deals signed by Bobby Witt Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr. Greene’s representatives at Apex Baseball certainly might argue that their client is closer to those two in terms of meriting face-of-the-franchise types of salaries, but some pretty key differences exist. Tatis was 22 at the time of his extension, while Witt (who is a little over three months older than Greene) plays the more premium position of shortstop.
Greene is currently slated to hit free agency entering his age-28 season, right in the midst of his prime years and on pace to land a huge contract if he keeps up his current form. A big extension lasting a decade or more would hold obvious appeal to him, but conversely, an extension that covers only Detroit’s four remaining years of control might also be of interest — Greene could pick up a guaranteed payday that doesn’t change his free agent timeline. The Tigers would get some cost certainty through Greene’s arbitration years, but such a “bridge contract” scenario might be seen as a placeholder for the team, since the Tigers would certainly want at least a couple of free agent years covered if they’re making such a longer-term commitment.
Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM extension with the Astros probably represents the floor of what Greene figures to land in an extension. Alvarez signed that deal just a few weeks shy of his 25th birthday, and with three-plus seasons of hitting at level above even what Greene delivered in 2024. Alvarez also had injury concerns (he missed almost all of the 2020 season due to surgeries on both knees) of a more significant nature than Greene, and Alvarez was already viewed at the time as more of a DH than a left fielder. Greene’s much higher defensive ceiling offsets Alvarez’s better hitting, and it should be noted that the length of Alvarez’s contract hit the unofficial six-year limit that Astros owner Jim Crane is known to enforce on his organization’s contracts.
The Tigers have no such known limit on contracts, so a Greene extension could certainly (and likely would) exceed six years. It’s still something of a mystery as to how president of baseball operations Scott Harris or owner Chris Ilitch would approach such a longer-term deal, as Greene’s extension would represent a new frontier for the organization as it comes out of its rebuild. Keith’s six-year, $28.6425MM deal from last January is the only extension signed in Harris’ two years as Detroit’s PBO, and that contract is wholly different from Greene’s situation since Keith had yet to even make his Major League debut.
That being said, extending a player before his debut is an aggressive move in its own right, which could hint that Harris will be proactive in trying to retain players he views as central to the Tigers’ long-term plans. Skubal’s two years of control makes him a more immediate concern than Greene, yet since Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, the Tigers might view Greene as the likelier of the two young stars to be open to a multi-year pact.
As noted earlier, an extension doesn’t need to happen in the near future. Waiting at least another season might help both parties anyway, since another big season only raises Greene’s price tag, but by the same logic would also make the Tigers a little more comfortable about splurging on something like a decade-long extension worth well north of $200MM. With a pretty clean set of financial books right now, however, the Tigers might feel the time is right to officially confirm Greene as a pivotal figure in this new era of Detroit baseball.
Tigers “Finalizing” Deal To Hire Shane Farrell As Farm Director
8:52AM: The hiring isn’t yet official, as the Detroit News’ Chris McCosky writes (X link) that Farrell and the Tigers “are finalizing a deal.” Farrell’s role with the Tigers would involve assuming some of the duties left open when Garko was promoted.
8:29AM: The Tigers have hired Shane Farrell as their new farm director, according to Bob Elliott of the Canadian Baseball Network (links to X). Farrell has spent the last five seasons as the Blue Jays’ director of amateur scouting, and was in charge of the team’s drafts.
As Elliott notes, Farrell has past ties to Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris, as the two previously worked together in the Cubs’ front office when Harris was Chicago’s director of baseball ops and and Farrell was a scout and crosschecker. There is also a distant family connection to Detroit for Farrell, as his father John (the longtime former manager and pitcher) spent his final season as a player with the Tigers in 1996.
It isn’t yet known if Farrell is joining the Tigers’ current front office mix, or if he’ll be taking the place of a departing executive. Ryan Garko is still credited as the team’s VP of player development, but Garko was also promoted to an assistant GM role back in May. Fellow AGM Rob Metzler oversees the team’s scouting operations, and Mark Conner has spent the last two seasons as Detroit’s director of amateur scouting.
Farrell’s departure leaves the Blue Jays with a big hole to fill in their front office, and it represents a shakeup in the club’s player development strategies. While such notables as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Alek Manoah are homegrown products of the Toronto farm system, the Jays have long had difficulty in developing a consistent pipeline of minor leaguers who become productive members of the MLB roster.
This problem predates Farrell’s arrival in the organization, and it is naturally hard to gauge his work in Toronto considering how almost literally all of the players drafted by the Jays in the last five seasons have yet to reach the big leagues. Austin Martin (the fifth overall pick in 2020) is the only player drafted by the Blue Jays from 2020-24 who has made it to the Show, and Martin was traded to the Twins back in 2021 as part of the deal that brought Jose Berrios to Toronto.
Of course, the lack of any immediate help could itself be an issue, as the Jays haven’t had many big prospects coming up to bolster the roster or to be used as trade chips. 2021 first-rounder Gunnar Hoglund was also dealt to the A’s as part of the Matt Chapman trade package in March 2022, and other prominent young pitchers drafted under Farrell (Ricky Tiedemann, CJ Van Eyk, Brandon Barriera) have all had their career slowed by injuries.
Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers
One of the great late-season surges in baseball history brought the Tigers from eight games under .500 to within a game of the AL Championship Series. With the rebuild now over, the Tigers have plenty of avenues available to bolster the roster for 2025.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Javier Baez, SS: $73MM through 2027
- Colt Keith, 2B: $24,142,500 through 2030 (includes $2.6425MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2030; deal also includes $13MM club option for 2031 with $1MM buyout, and $15MM club option for 2032 with $2MM buyout)
- Kenta Maeda, SP/RP: $10MM through 2025
2025 financial commitments: $38.5MM
Total future commitments: $107,142,500
Option Decisions
- Casey Mize, SP: $3.1MM club option, $10K buyout (if option is declined, Mize is still arbitration-controlled through 2026)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Tarik Skubal (4.114): $8MM
- Casey Mize (4.111): $2MM
- Jake Rogers (4.040): $2.5MM
- Will Vest (3.100): $1.4MM
- Zach McKinstry (3.099): $1.3MM
- Jason Foley (3.033): $3.5MM
- Matt Vierling (3.026): $3MM
- Akil Baddoo (3.003): $1.6MM
- Alex Lange (3.003): $1.3MM
- Andy Ibanez (2.170): $1.5MM
- Beau Brieske (2.134): $1.3MM
- Non-tender candidates: Baddoo, McKinstry, Lange
Free Agents
- None
After moving most of their veteran players at the trade deadline, Detroit looked to be playing out the string as late as August 10, when a 3-1 loss to the Giants dropped the Tigers' record to 55-63. That's when the magic started happening, as the Tigers went 31-13 over their last 44 games to surge into the final AL wild card spot, giving Detroit its first playoff berth since 2014. The club then upset the Astros in the Wild Card Series and took the Guardians to the limit in the ALDS before Lane Thomas' clutch grand slam in Game 5 finally put the upstart Tigers away for good.
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Dodgers Notes: Rojas, Hernandez, Hudson
Miguel Rojas was left off the Dodgers’ NLCS roster due to a partially torn left adductor muscle, and the infielder has already said he’ll need to undergo surgery to correct the problem after the season is over. However, as Rojas told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, he is also dealing with a sports hernia that will require more surgical attention.
Despite it all, Rojas is still hoping he can heal up enough in the interim to be part of a potential World Series roster if the Dodgers can get past the Mets. Rojas suffered the adductor injury in the last week of the regular season and was able to play in three games in the NLDS (hitting two singles in eight plate appearances) but hasn’t played since he was removed for a pinch-runner in the third inning of Game 3.
Assuming Los Angeles did advance to the Fall Classic, there’s obvious risk for the Dodgers in rostering a player who clearly won’t be at anything close to 100 percent. Teams can make (with league approval) injury-related roster substitutions once the World Series begins, yet that wouldn’t prevent the Dodgers from finding themselves short-handed during a game if Rojas had to make another early exit. The decision will ultimately hinge on both Rojas’ health and what the team feels a limited version of Rojas can still bring to the infield mix. Other injuries will also be factors, like the hip flexor issue that kept Gavin Lux out of Game 2 of the NLCS.
With these health issues mounting, Enrique Hernandez has been a godsend for the lineup, as the utilityman moved into the starting lineup once Rojas went down. Since Tommy Edman took over for Rojas at shortstop, Hernandez has become the new primary center fielder, though Hernandez has also seen action at third and second base, including a start at second base in Lux’s place in Game 2. In addition to the defensive versatility, Hernandez has been hot at the plate, with two home runs and a 1.084 OPS in 20 PA in the Dodgers’ last five games.
Hernandez had already established a reputation for himself as a clutch postseason hitter prior to 2024, though his improved form might’ve been sparked during the summer when he started wearing glasses. As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal notes, a conversation with Martin Maldonado in June inspired Hernandez to undergo an eye exam, which revealed an astigmatism in his right eye. Hernandez started wearing glasses to help his vision, and after an adjustment period, he hit .274/.307/.458 slash line over his final 180 PA of the regular season. While not standout numbers, it was still a marked improvement over the .191/.258/.299 line Hernandez posted in his first 213 PA.
In other Dodgers injury news, right-hander Daniel Hudson didn’t pitch in Game 2 due to what manager Dave Roberts revealed to media (including Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times) described as a “lower-body” problem. Hudson was deemed available for Game 3 and while he wasn’t one of five pitchers used in the Dodgers’ 8-0 win, that might’ve had more to do with the increasingly lopsided score than with any lingering concerns over his injury.
With gamesmanship in full effect in the playoffs, it isn’t surprising that Roberts wasn’t specific with the nature of Hudson’s issue. Any sort of lower-body injury is of particular concern in Hudson’s case given that he tore his ACL in June 2022, and then pitched just three innings during the 2023 season due to recovery from that ACL tear and then an MCL strain.
The good news is that Hudson returned from these injury-marred years to deliver a healthy and productive 2024 season. Hudson allowed a ton of hard contact and benefited from a .225 BABIP, but he finished the year with a 3.00 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates over 63 innings out of the Los Angeles bullpen. A postseason hero for the Nationals in their 2019 World Series run, Hudson has continued his strong work in October with 3 1/3 scoreless innings so far in these playoffs.
Latest On White Sox Managerial Search
TODAY: The White Sox also have interest in Rangers bench coach/offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker and Dodgers bench coach Danny Lehmann, Fegan and Nelson report. Chicago may have to wait until the NLCS is over to speak with Lehmann or another reported target in Los Angeles first base coach Clayton McCullough, who 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine cited as “a leading candidate” for the White Sox job back in September.
OCTOBER 16: While not the biggest piece of White Sox-related news today, the club’s more immediate piece of short-term business is finding a new manager. James Fegan and Josh Nelson of Sox Machine report that Tigers bench coach George Lombard and Padres special assistant A.J. Ellis are two of the candidates being considered in a still-evolving search.
This isn’t the first time that the 49-year-old Lombard has been linked to a managerial opening, as he previously interviewed with the Pirates in 2019 (before Derek Shelton was hired) and for the Tigers in 2020. Though Detroit ended up going with A.J. Hinch as its new skipper, the Tigers were impressed enough by Lombard to bring him aboard as the bench coach soon after Hinch was hired, and Lombard has subsequently spent the last four seasons in the role.
Lombard’s playing career saw him appear in parts of six seasons from 1998-2006, and he hung up his cleats following a 2009 season spent in the minors and in independent ball. He then worked in the Red Sox farm system for the next six seasons as a coach, roving coordinator, and manager — a two-season stint with the Red Sox rookie league affiliate in 2011-12 represents Lombard’s only experience as a manager. After a few months working with the Braves as a minor league coordinator in 2015, Lombard quickly moved onto a new job as the Dodgers’ first base coach, and spent the 2016-20 seasons as part of the L.A. coaching staff.
In a coincidental overlap, Ellis was still playing for the Dodgers in 2016 during Lombard’s first season. Ellis spent nine of his 11 MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and then after retiring following the 2018 season, stayed in the NL West by taking on an assistant role within the Padres’ baseball operations department. The special assistant title is a nebulous one that tends to vary greatly in responsibilities based on the individual’s specialties and the club’s needs, but Fegan writes that Ellis has done “plenty of roving player development work” over his six years in San Diego.
Moving into a regular job in the dugout would therefore represent an entirely new frontier for the 43-year-old Ellis, who has no formal managerial or coaching experience. Of course, Ellis’ long career as a catcher shouldn’t be discounted, given the long line of ex-catchers moving into managerial roles. As Fegan notes, Ellis had a reputation as a leader on the field during his playing days, and the White Sox could be interested in seeing if Ellis can make as a smooth a transition from catching to managing as Stephen Vogt did for the division rival Guardians.
Neither Lombard or Ellis have ever crossed paths with Chicago GM Chris Getz as a teammate or co-worker, nor were Lombard or Ellis ever former members of the White Sox organization. This fits with Getz’s prior statement that the White Sox were looking to bring in a new voice as the club’s next manager, though interim manager Grady Sizemore would receive some consideration.
Beyond these names, former Angels manager Phil Nevin, Rangers associate manager Will Venable, and Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso are known to be on Chicago’s list of candidates. While the Sox still want to talk to some coaches on teams currently playing in the postseason, some preliminary culling has already started to take place, as Fegan writes that the White Sox have already eliminated some candidates from consideration. A source tells Fegan that former Marlins manager Skip Schumaker is “still alive” in the search, which is no surprise given that Schumaker has long been viewed as a preferred choice for the job.
Latest On Marlins’ Managerial Search
There hasn’t been a lot of concrete information about the Marlins’ managerial search, but one formal candidate has now been identified, as Isaac Azout of Fish On First (X link) reports that Tigers bench coach George Lombard will interview about the position this week.
It is the second time in as many days that Lombard has been linked to a managerial opening, as the White Sox also reportedly have interest in speaking with the 49-year-old. Since the Tigers’ surprising playoff run only just ended last Saturday, it makes sense that Lombard is only now becoming available for interviews.
Lombard has some distant past ties to the Miami organization, as he played in the Marlins’ farm system back in 2008 but didn’t see any time with the club at the MLB level. His playing career ran from 1994-2009, and included 144 Major League games with four different teams from 1998-2006. Lombard played in 13 games with the Rays in 2006, though this predated the time that Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix spent in the Tampa front office.
Lombard’s only managerial experience came in the form of two seasons (2011-12) in rookie ball, running the Red Sox Gulf Coast League affiliate. Lombard spent six seasons overall working for Boston as a manager, coach, and coordinator in the minors, then briefly worked in a minor league coordinator role for the Braves in 2015 before the big leagues came calling.
After just a couple of months with Atlanta, Lombard was hired as the Dodgers’ first base coach, a role he held from 2016-20. The first two of Lombard’s seasons in Los Angeles overlaps with Gabe Kapler’s stint as the Dodgers’ director of player development, which creates an interesting link to the Marlins since Kapler is now Miami’s assistant general manager.
Lombard won a World Series ring with L.A. in 2020 and was then hired by the Tigers as their bench coach during the 2020-21 offseason. The responsibilities of a bench coach vary from team to team, but the Detroit News’ Chris McCosky writes that Lombard’s chief duties include offensive game-planning, as well as coaching baserunning and outfield play.
The bench coach hire came after the Tigers also interviewed Lombard for their own managerial vacancy at the time, which was filled by A.J. Hinch. Lombard had previously been on the Pirates’ radar in their managerial search a year prior (before Derek Shelton was hired), and the Red Sox also reportedly had some interest in speaking with Lombard before Alex Cora was re-hired as manager in November 2020.
If hired as the Marlins’ next skipper, Lombard will be tasked with helping turn around a team in the midst of an extensive rebuild both on and off the field. The Marlins made a wide range of firings after the season, letting go of not just Skip Schumaker’s coaching staff but also the team’s conditioning and training crew and the clubhouse attendant staff. Presumably the new manager would have a lot of leeway in hand-picking people to fill these roles, with Bendix and Kapler obviously also having plenty of input.
Speaking of Kapler, Azout also notes that the Marlins have some interest in speaking with Giants assistant coach Alyssa Nakken about the managerial role. Nakken has been working with San Francisco for over a decade, and her five-year stint on the coaching staff began after Kapler was hired as the Giants’ manager prior to the 2020 season. Her role on the staff bears some similarity to Lombard’s skillset, as Nakken’s duties also included outfield instruction and baserunning.
Nakken became the first woman known to ever receive a proper interview for a Major League managerial position when she spoke to the Giants about their vacancy last October. Obviously history would be made if the Marlins or any other team hired her to run their dugout, though Miami is particularly noteworthy since the organization was also the first to hire a woman (Kim Ng) as general manager. The 34-year-old Nakken would also become the youngest current big league manager.
Apart from Lombard and Nakken, Guardians bench coach Craig Albernaz and former Marlins bench coach Luis Urueta have also been mentioned as candidates under consideration as Miami’s next manager. Former Marlins pitcher Anibal Sanchez has also reached out to the club about the position, but it isn’t known if the Marlins reciprocated that interest.
