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AL East Notes: Cortes, Rizzo, Fulmer, Morel

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Nestor Cortes was set to throw what he described as a hybrid bullpen session today, telling the New York Post’s Greg Joyce (X link) and other reporters that the session would consist of 10-15 pitches each in a normal bullpen and then 10-15 pitches to hitters.  It is Cortes’ latest step in his recovery from a flexor strain that has kept him out of action since September 18, and therefore kept him from participating in the Yankees’ playoff run.  With no setbacks to date, Cortes aims to face live batters again this weekend, and is looking to be well enough to be activated for the World Series roster should New York advance to the Fall Classic.

Cortes can hope that his potential return goes as smoothly as Anthony Rizzo’s activation from the injured list, as Rizzo is thus far 3-for-7 with a walk over the first two games of the ALCS.  Rizzo suffered two fractured fingers on his right hand after he was hit by a Ryan Borucki pitch on September 28, and he missed the last couple of regular-season games as well as the Yankees’ ALDS matchup with the Royals.  Manager Aaron Boone told Joyce and company that Rizzo is still receiving near-constant treatment from the club’s medical staff in order to stay on the field.

More from around the AL East…

  • It was almost exactly one year ago that Michael Fulmer underwent a UCL revision surgery, which ended the right-hander’s 2024 season before it even began.  After a year of rehab, however, Fulmer told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (X link) that he is back to throwing off a mound and “is trending well for” the start of Spring Training.  Despite the injury, Fulmer still landed a contract last offseason, as the Red Sox signed him to a two-year minor league contract with the knowledge that the 2024 campaign would be a wash.  Fulmer’s turn towards relief pitching in 2021 yielded pretty positive results over the 2021-23 seasons, and if he finally get healthy during what has been an injury-plagued career, Fulmer is an intriguing no-risk flier for the Sox heading into next season.
  • Christopher Morel had long been a Rays trade target before the club finally landed him in the four-player deadline deal that sent Isaac Paredes to the Cubs.  However, Morel’s first two months in a Tampa uniform were a struggle, as he hit only .191/.258/.289 over 190 plate appearances.  “There were signs underneath he was really unlucky in terms of the balls hit in play,” Rays president of baseball ops Erik Neander told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, in a nod to Morel’s .233 BABIP for the season.  Neander is still bullish on Morel’s potential for 2025 and beyond, and felt that the Rays’ decision to move him to second base and left field (after he’d played third base with the Cubs all season) maybe also “took a toll on him offensively.”  Even the trade itself might’ve been a factor, as Neader noted “that new environment, that first taste of it, if you don’t get off to a great start or hold it, it can be difficult.  It’s a hard thing to recover.  Sometimes it takes that first offseason to come in and be familiar with that environment, to really be yourself again.”  There is plenty of time for the Rays to figure out a player who is under team control through the 2028 season, and who has shown flashes of his power potential over his three MLB seasons to date.
  • In other AL East news from earlier today….Topkin had a big update on the state of Tropicana Field in the wake of Hurricane Milton, Masataka Yoshida underwent shoulder surgery, and MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series delivered entries on the Blue Jays and Orioles.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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Quick postseason exits in 2022 and 2023 left the Blue Jays wondering last winter if their core roster was good enough to compete for a World Series.  Heading into this offseason, the question is now if the Jays' core can even still contend at all, after the team cratered to a 74-88 record.  In what could potentially be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s last season in Toronto, the Jays are under enormous pressure to turn things around.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Commitments

2025 financial commitments: $117.72MM
Total future commitments: $246.22MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

After a comparatively average 2023 season, Guerrero responded with a huge year that re-established him as one of baseball's top hitters.  Daulton Varsho also improved to roughly league-average offense, and continued his exceptional glovework in Toronto's outfield.  Alejandro Kirk has quietly become something of the catching equivalent of Varsho, as a standout defender whose bat leaves something to be desired.  Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt were more good than great this season but they bring a lot of durability and general effectiveness to the rotation.  They'll be joined in next year's staff by Bowden Francis, whose sudden emergence in the second half made him like a budding ace, let alone simply worthy of a starting role.

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Royals Notes: Lineup Needs, Outfield, Wacha, Frazier

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Royals brass held their end-of-season press conference today, with general manager J.J. Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro fielding questions from MLB.com’s Anne Rogers (two links) and other reporters about the club’s successful 2024 campaign and some of their plans for the coming offseason.

While Picollo described the Royals’ offense as “acceptable” overall, the team is looking for bookends around the powerful 2-3-4 lineup combination of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez.  The Royals relied heavily on that trio for most of their offense, and thus finding a more consistent leadoff hitter and no. 5 hitter are the first steps in increasing production.

Picollo noted that impending free agent Tommy Pham did a good job in stabilizing the leadoff spot after Pham was claimed off waivers from the Cardinals at the end of August.  In general, however, “that leadoff spot, we were circulating guys all year long, trying to find the right person….Every lineup, and the better lineups that we faced, they’re deep,” Picollo said.  “The more you can push guys down, the better our lineup will be. You start with a leadoff man, and then you try to find somebody in the middle of the lineup, as well.  The deeper you get, the more explosive you can be as an offense.”

Kansas City batters had a collective .306 on-base percentage this season, ranking 19th of 30 teams.  Witt’s .389 OBP did a lot of the heavy lifting on that cumulative total, as Yuli Gurriel (in only 65 plate appearances) ranked second on the team with a .338 OBP, followed by Perez at .330.  Maikel Garcia had the majority of at-bats out of the leadoff spot and his strong third base defense kept him in the lineup, but he hit only .231/.281/.332 over 626 PA.  Garcia’s 69 wRC+ was the lowest of any qualified hitter in baseball this season.

Despite Garcia’s lack of production, Picollo said Garcia and left fielder MJ Melendez (who also struggled) will be counted to improve at the plate as they head into their fourth Major League campaigns.  However, Picollo singled out the outfield as a natural area where the Royals could add some power and more offense in general, as only the Pirates and White Sox got less production from their outfielders in 2024 than the 79 wRC+ posted by Kansas City’s outfield mix.

“Generally speaking, when you’re looking at left field, right field, that’s where you’re thinking about power guys,” Picollo said.  “And we know this ballpark doesn’t lend itself to homers, but it does lend itself to slug.  So we’ve got to be more productive there.  And that’s where being optimistic about some of the guys that we have and looking at the experience they had, I think that’s fine.”

Right field is the most logical target area if Hunter Renfroe declines his $7.5MM player option for 2025, though Picollo said he hadn’t yet spoken to Renfroe about his upcoming decision.  Renfroe can take a $1MM buyout and return to free agency, but it probably seems likelier than Renfroe will take the larger $7.5MM payday after a sub-replacement season.  Renfroe had a -0.1 fWAR over 120 games with Kansas City, hitting .229/.297/.392 with 15 home runs, and he sandwiched a red-hot stretch in June and July between ice-cold performances in the first two and final two months of the regular season.

Kyle Isbel was also a below-average hitter but at least played some solid defense in center field, so he might have the most job security of all Royals outfielders heading into 2025.  If K.C. did indeed pick up a new corner outfielder or two, Renfroe, Melendez, Dairon Blanco, and Nelson Velazquez could all be vying for part-time or bench duty, or the Royals could look to move any to create roster space.

On the pitching end, Michael Wacha will have to decide on either exercising or declining his $16MM player option for the 2025 season.  Wacha’s excellent changeup powered his 3.35 ERA over 166 2/3 innings in his first season with the Royals, and induced a ton of soft contact while posting an above-average 6.6% walk rate.  Though his lack of strikeouts and velocity will always limit his market to some extent, Wacha has now posted very solid results in each of the last three seasons, and should certainly find a multi-year pact again on the open market this year.

Even if the likelihood is that Wacha does pass on his option, Picollo said “there’s no question we’d like to have him back.  How we go about that, I’m not sure just yet….He’s going to have opportunities with other clubs.  So we’ll work on that.”

The Royals aim to add more pitching with or without Wacha still in the rotation, though obviously it will be a more glaring need if Wacha does head elsewhere.  Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Brady Singer still combine for a nice top three and Alec Marsh earned himself a rotation job, so on paper Kansas City would have plenty of internal candidates to compete for just one open starting job.  But as Picollo noted, “we were remarkably healthy this year,” so the club expects to need more pitching in the likely even that the Royals aren’t as lucky in avoiding the injury bug.

As to how much the Royals will have to spend for any upgrade, Picollo was naturally unspecific on the topic, but he felt owner John Sherman would have as much “flexibility” with the payroll as last winter.  “I would suspect it would be very similar,” the GM said.  “Not necessarily in, ’We’re going to spend $100 million,’ but more so his flexibility, him being open-minded to what our team’s needs are.”

RosterResource estimates that the Royals finished the year with a payroll of slightly more than $113.5MM, which represents the franchise’s biggest spend since its $122.2MM payroll on Opening Day 2018.  An increase in attendance and two playoff games should boost revenue, but the Royals are also one of the teams whose broadcast deals with Diamond Sports Group will be severed as part of DSG’s ongoing bankruptcy proceedings.

It remains to be seen if the Royals could work out a new deal with DSG/Bally Sports for the 2025 season or if the team might seek out another broadcast partner, or pursue an agreement with Major League Baseball itself to broadcast games (as six other clubs have done).  While obviously a lot of uncertainty exists here, it should be noted that the Royals’ previous deal with Bally was already up after the 2025 season, and the team still went ahead and had a relatively big spending splurge last winter even with the looming questions about its broadcast future.

In some injury updates, Hunter Harvey, James McArthur, and Chris Stratton should all be ready for the start of Spring Training after finishing the season on the injured list.  Some health uncertainty awaits Adam Frazier, who will be undergoing some type of procedure on his right thumb this week.

Frazier had a minimal 10-day IL stint in late June/early July due to a sprain in that same thumb, and an injury could explain his rough hitting numbers, as the veteran batted only .202/.282/.294 in 294 PA.  Kansas City is sure to decline its end of an $8.5MM mutual option on Frazier for 2025, and he’ll be bought out for $2.5MM.  Between his down year and perhaps this surgery impacting his readiness, Frazier may have to settle for a minor league pact in free agency.

Quick Hits: Bieber, Niebla, Shildt, Cardinals

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Shane Bieber’s season was ended by a Tommy John surgery back in April, and he’ll now head into free agency with this big question mark attached to his health.  It could be that Bieber ends up sticking with the Guardians, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer thinks “there’s interest on both sides” about a new contract.  Since Bieber won’t be able to return to a big league mound until probably June or July, a new deal might just involve one guaranteed season with some type of option for the 2026 season, or potentially a two-year guarantee with a small salary in 2025 and then the majority of the money slated for 2026 when Bieber will presumably be able to complete a full season.

Similar contracts have emerged in the past for pitchers coming off major surgeries and facing reduced or non-existent workloads in the first year of the two-year pacts, and the reduced cost of such a trade has particular appeal for a lower-payroll team like the Guardians.  A two-year guarantee would keep Bieber from entering free agency again until he is about to enter his age-32 season, though he might want to lock in some more guaranteed security now while he is still dealing with the uncertainty of his TJ rehab.  From a baseball perspective, Bieber surely would be open to staying in a familiar environment and playing for another winning team, while bringing back Bieber for even a half-season could be a help for a very unsettled Guards rotation.

More from around the baseball world…

  • Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla’s contract is up now that the season is over, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  It isn’t known if there have been any talks between the two sides, but Acee feels an extension “should be a no-brainer” given how well the Padres’ staff has performed over Niebla’s three seasons on the job.  San Diego pitchers have a combined 3.80 ERA over the 2022-24 seasons, ranking ninth in baseball in that span. Manager Mike Shildt is also now entering a walk year since 2025 is the last season of his initial two-year contract, and surely the Padres will also look to give the skipper more security in the wake of his very successful inaugural campaign with the club.
  • The Cardinals are putting a renewed focus on player development in what might be a rebuilding year in 2025, but some fresh steps were already taken this past year.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cards led all four minor league levels in innings pitched by starting pitchers, which was a stated goal for the organization since the simple idea was the pitching prospects could learn just from working deeper into games.  As explained by Cards pitching coach Dusty Blake, “you find out that once you get to pitch #80, it’s hard for you to get your breaking stuff down, so here is the adjustment to make sure if you’ve got to beat this guy a third time.”  If a pitcher isn’t taken out to manage innings or to avoid a jam, “there are ancillary pieces that you continue to learn and adapt with workload.  You find out about yourself as you experience some fatigue.  How do you keep competing and making pitches to give you that best chance?”  Another wrinkle is that getting used to longer outings might help Cardinals youngsters adjust to the future should the league institutes a rule about a minimum number of innings pitched or batters faced in a game.

How Cole Ragans Built On His Breakout Season

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After losing 106 games in 2023, the Royals responded to the embarrassing result by going on a relative spending spree last winter.  Bobby Witt Jr.’s 11-year, $288.78MM extension naturally drew most of the attention, but Kansas City spent $110.5MM on free agent contracts, most notably bringing Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha to bolster the pitching staff.  The strategy paid off handsomely, as the Royals rebounded for their first winning record and playoff berth since 2015.

Not content to just make the postseason, K.C. defeated the Orioles in the Wild Card Series before falling to the Yankees in four games in the ALDS.  This playoff run provided a bit of a national showcase for Cole Ragans, who had a sterling 0.90 ERA in 10 innings and two postseason starts.

Witt’s MVP-level performance, Salvador Perez’s strong bounce-back year, and the immediate impact of Lugo and Wacha rightly drew a lot of credit for the Royals’ success, yet they also somewhat overshadowed Ragans’ continued excellence since coming to the Royals in June 2023.  Continuing the “under the radar” theme, Ragans’ season would be drawing a lot of Cy Young Award buzz if Tarik Skubal wasn’t such a heavy favorite for the trophy.  In fact, Skubal is the only AL pitcher who had a higher fWAR than Ragans, and only Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler topped Ragans among the National League’s arms.

Ragans posted a 3.14 ERA over 186 1/3 innings, and his 29.3% strikeout rate and 31.8% whiff rate both ranked in at least the 88th percentile of all pitchers.  Ragans did a good job of limiting hard contact and avoiding home runs, which couldn’t be entirely attributed to pitching at Kauffman Stadium — the left-hander’s road ERA (2.87) was actually better than his home ERA (3.40).  A below-average 8.8% walk rate was the only real flaw in Ragans’ arsenal, though he at least improved on his 10.5% walk rate from the 2023 season.

The changeup has been Ragans’ most consistently solid pitch over his three MLB seasons, and batters only hit .183 against the offspeed offering in 2024.  The big difference in arsenal this season, however, was that Ragans started to more fully capitalize on his 95.4mph fastball’s elite spin rate.  Ragans’ fastball was ranked by Statcast as a below-average pitch in 2022 and 2023, but adding about 1.2 inches of vertical break on the pitch from 2023 to 2024 seemed to unlock something special, as his four-seamer was suddenly among the more effective pitches in all of baseball.

This big year only continued the sudden success Ragans enjoyed after he was traded to the Royals (along with outfield prospect Roni Cabrera) from the Rangers for Aroldis Chapman in June 2023.  Selected 30th overall in the 2016 draft, Ragans’ career was put on hold for the entirety of the 2018-20 seasons due to two Tommy John surgeries and then the canceled 2020 minor league season.  He pitched well enough after his return to action to eventually earn his first MLB call-up in 2022, and Ragans had a 4.95 ERA over nine starts and 40 innings for Texas in his rookie season.

Working out of the bullpen in 2023, Ragans had struggled to a 5.92 ERA in 24 1/3 relief innings at the time of the trade, but the Royals immediately gave him another look in the rotation.  As if a switch was flipped, Ragans posted a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts and 71 2/3 innings over the remainder of the 2023 campaign, and the Royals suddenly had a rotation building block as a silver lining within their dismal season.

After now a full season of success for Ragans, that Royals/Rangers trade is looking like one of the more impactful win-win deadline deals in recent memory.  Calling it a “deadline deal” is perhaps a misnomer since it came a month before the trade deadline, as the Royals were already in sell mode and the Rangers were desperate to shore up their badly struggling relief corps.  Teams tend to have higher asking prices in trade talks further in advance of the deadline, yet moving Ragans was a price the Rangers were willing to pay in order to achieve bullpen help as quickly as possible.

While Chapman wasn’t exactly airtight during his time in Arlington, he pitched well enough down the stretch and in the playoffs to help Texas secure its first World Series championship.  The “flags fly forever” mantra is a pretty good salve for any regrets the Rangers or their fans might have about letting Ragans go for a rental reliever, while the K.C. organization is undoubtedly thrilled with everything they’ve seen from their new ace.

Ragans turns 27 in December, and still has another full season remaining before reaching salary arbitration.  Locking up Ragans to a contract extension would help the Royals get some cost certainty over a pitcher whose ceiling only seems to be rising, plus the rotation could use some solidification since Wacha will surely exercise his opt-out clause and test free agency again.  On the flip side, since Ragans is under team control through his age-30 season and already has two Tommy John surgeries on his resume, the Royals might well hold off on any serious extension talks and just go year-by-year with Ragans for now.

Deciding how to best deal with the unexpected windfall of a frontline pitcher is a nice problem for the Royals to have, and in hindsight the Ragans trade was the first sign that K.C. was going to able to rebound from its 106-loss disaster.  An inability to develop homegrown pitching prospects stalled the Royals’ rebuild for years, so there is some irony in the fact that the team’s emergence has now been led in part by another team’s seemingly stalled prospect.

Brandon Nimmo Playing Through Plantar Fasciitis Injury

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Brandon Nimmo is 0-for-12 with four walks over his last 16 plate appearances, and was removed from both Game 1 (for a pinch-hitter) and Game 2 (for a defensive sub in left field) of the Mets’ NLCS clash with the Dodgers.  It seems the issue is health-related, as Nimmo told The Athletic’s Tim Britton that he believes he re-aggravated a case of plantar fasciitis in his left foot during the sixth inning of Game 3 of the NLDS against the Phillies.  The fact that Nimmo was dealing with plantar fasciitis is itself news, as Nimmo said he has been playing through the injury since May.

The discomfort is only an issue when running, Nimmo said, and “I think when I really need it, I’m probably not 100 percent, but I can get going pretty good.”  He has been able to hit and throw with relatively little problem, so while it is clear that Nimmo isn’t quite himself, he is intent on staying in the lineup and will wait until after the season to pursue any more long-lasting tretament.

Nimmo hit .224/.327/.399 with 23 home runs over 663 plate appearances in the regular season, translating to a 109 wRC+.  This was a step back from the 134 wRC+ Nimmo produced in 1966 PA during the 2020-23 seasons, though the downturn is understandable considering that Nimmo has been battling plantar fasciitis for much of the year.  Interestingly, Nimmo stole a career-high 15 bases and was a perfect 15-for-15 on the basepaths, despite playing through the pain in his foot.

If the discomfort ever became so severe that Nimmo couldn’t start in left field, the Mets could install Jeff McNeil (himself just returning after a wrist fracture) in left or move Tyrone Taylor into left field while Harrison Bader plays in center field.  But, the plan seems to be to just keep Nimmo in the starting lineup and then manage his time with tactical substitutions, as in the first two games against Los Angeles.

It obviously isn’t good for the Mets that one of their key hitters has been hampered at such a pivotal time in October, or that the three off-days between the NLDS and NLCS provided only scant relief.  (“It wasn’t as good as I was hoping when I got out there,” Nimmo said of how his foot responded to the three-day break.)  While some injury cases like Freddie Freeman’s bad ankle are obvious, Nimmo’s situation is an example of how there are likely several players trying to grit out non-publicized injuries through these key postseason games.

Orioles Sign David Banuelos To Minor League Contract

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The Orioles signed catcher David Banuelos to a new minor league contract, MASNSports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports (X link).  The deal contains an invitation to Baltimore’s big league Spring Training camp.

Banuelos had been eligible for minor league free agent but the contract ensures that he’ll remain in the Orioles organization for a second year.  After signing a minors deal with the O’s last winter, Banuelos made his Major League debut in the form of a pinch-hit appearance in Baltimore’s 11-3 win over the Twins on April 16.  That lone game marked Banuelos’ only MLB appearance of the season, and he also played in only 22 games for Triple-A Norfolk.

The lack of proper playing time was due to Banuelos’ status as a regular member of the Orioles’ taxi squad, as the O’s wanted an emergency catcher available to back up Adley Rutschman and James McCann.  With Rutschmann playing almost every day as either a catcher or DH, the Orioles wanted extra depth if an injury hit either of their two regular backstops.  This left Banuelos without much playing time since Rutschman and McCann both avoided the injured list — somewhat remarkably in McCann’s case, given how he was hit in the face with a pitch back on July 29.

Banuelos also spent part of the season in roster limbo, as the Orioles designated the catcher for assignment and outrighted him off their 40-man roster on three separate occasions.  After being outrighted the first time, Banuelos gained the right to reject any future outright assignments in favor of free agency, though Banuelos opted to remain with Baltimore after he cleared waivers the next two times.

Even with just a cup of coffee in the Show, Banuelos can now officially call himself a big leaguer after seven pro seasons.  A fifth-round pick for the Mariners in the 2017 draft, Banuelos spent just his first season in Seattle’s organization before he was dealt to the Twins, and he played in Minnesota’s farm system from 2018-23.  Banuelos has hit .216/.283/.354 over 1265 career plate appearances in the minors.

Clayton Kershaw Intends To Pitch In 2025

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Clayton Kershaw has been forced to watch the Dodgers’ playoff run from the dugout due to the bone spurs in his left big toe, which capped off an injury-marred season that saw him pitch a career-low 30 innings.  Despite these obstacles, Kershaw told the Fox Sports pregame crew today (video link) that he plans to return for his 18th Major League season.

Referring to the shoulder procedure he underwent last November, Kershaw said “I want to make use of this surgery, you know?  I don’t want to have surgery and shut it down.  So I’m gonna come back next year and give it a go and see how it goes.”  While he referred to his bone spurs as “some tough luck,” Kershaw said that otherwise, “my shoulder and elbow, everything, my arm, feels great.”

Injuries have been an omnipresent part of Kershaw’s story for the last several seasons, and he has openly considered retirement before eventually deciding to keep pitching in general, and keep pitching for the Dodgers.  With a 4.50 ERA over his 30 frames in his age-36 season, this marked the first time Kershaw showed any decline in performance amidst his health concerns — while limited to 258 innings over the 2022-23 seasons, Kershaw still had a 2.37 ERA and was an All-Star in both campaigns.

Kershaw didn’t give any hint as to whether or not another surgery might be required to address his bone spurs, though that might seem the logical course of action for what has seemingly been a longer-term issue.  (Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts said in August that Kershaw had been dealing with the bone spurs for multiple years.)  Until we know if such a procedure is even required or not, it’s too soon to say if Kershaw might be fully ready to go when the Dodgers start their Spring Training camp in February.  His shoulder rehab delayed his 2024 debut until July 25.

While rehabbing from the shoulder surgery, Kershaw delayed his next contract until February 2024, when he rejoined the Dodgers on a two-year, $10MM guarantee.  The contract is specifically a $5MM deal for the 2024 season and then a minimum $5MM player option for 2025 that Kershaw will presumably exercise.  As per the terms of the contract, Kershaw earned an extra $2.5MM in 2024 salary, and an extra $5MM on his player option, so he’ll now bank another $10MM by picking up his player option.  It is possible Kershaw and the Dodgers could work out an extension of some kind to lock in that salary and tack on another option for 2026, to give both sides flexibility should Kershaw want to keep pitching for yet another season.

Though Kershaw could still find himself with a World Series ring in a few weeks’ time, it isn’t surprising that he isn’t considering ending his career on the low note of a 30-inning season.  He even had a 2.63 ERA in his first five starts before allowing eight runs over his last six innings pitched, presumably when the returned discomfort from his toe started to impact his performance.  If Kershaw can remain as healthy as possible for a 37-year-old pitcher with his injury history, it isn’t hard to imagine that he can still deliver quality production.

After struggling through a mountain of pitching injuries this season, the Dodgers technically have a full staff worth of options for 2025, even if every available arm has some degree of health concerns.  As noted by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman stated over the weekend that the team may use a six-man rotation in order to help keep everyone healthy, and to provide more rest for Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto specifically.  Ohtani didn’t pitch in 2024 due to UCL surgery and naturally has the added workload of his DH duties, while the Dodgers have been keeping Yamamoto on the Japan-like schedule of pitching with at least five days of rest.

Between that duo and Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow missed the end of the season and the playoffs due to an elbow strain, Tony Gonsolin didn’t pitch in 2024 while recovering from a Tommy John surgery, and Dustin May didn’t pitch in 2024 due to recoveries from a pair of arm procedures in July 2023 and then a throat surgery in July of this year.  Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, and prospect Jackson Ferris are other arms that figure to be part of the rotation mix.  It also stands to reason that L.A. will surely add another pitcher or two this offseason to help safeguard this group against any further injury hits.

Justin Dunn To Hold Showcase For Interested Teams

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Right-hander Justin Dunn is holding a showcase for scouts on Tuesday, according to the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham.  Just a few weeks after his 29th birthday, Dunn is looking to exhibit both his pitching repertoire and his health after missing essentially two full seasons.  Dunn was limited to 3 1/3 innings in the Reds’ farm system in 2023 due to a rotator cuff issue and then a shoulder surgery in September of that year, and he didn’t pitch at all this season while rehabbing from that procedure.

A highly-touted arm during his time at Boston College, Dunn was picked 19th overall by the Mets in the 2016 draft.  His time in New York’s pipeline didn’t last long, as he was one of the headline pieces of the five-player trade package the Mets sent to the Mariners in December 2018 for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz.  Back in March 2022, Dunn was part of another prominent deal when Seattle moved him, Jake Fraley, Brandon Williamson, and Connor Phillips to the Reds in exchange for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker.

Dunn was already dealing with shoulder problems at the time of the latter trade, though the Reds were aware and made the deal anyway, perhaps since their primary concern was dumping salary rather than maximizing the player return.  This injury-marred 2022 season saw Dunn post a 6.10 ERA over seven starts and 31 innings for Cincinnati, and he hasn’t since pitched in the majors.  Dunn opted into minor league free agency last winter after the Reds outrighted him off their 40-man roster.

While injuries have thrown a roadblock into Dunn’s career, he had a respectable 3.94 ERA over 102 2/3 innings and 25 starts with the Mariners during the 2019-21 seasons.  That ERA comes with a few asterisks, however, as Dunn has benefited from some good fortune despite shaky peripherals.  A .215 career BABIP has been the biggest helper, since Dunn hasn’t missed many bats (19.3% strikeout rate) and struggled with his control (14.7% walk rate) during his brief MLB career.

Even when Dunn was appearing near the back of top-100 prospect lists, some scouts felt relief pitching was a better path for his big league future than a rotation job.  Dunn might well explore such a role change as a nod to his arm health or simply to better his results, but at this point, he is surely open to whatever contract offers might be on the table.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him land a minor league deal and a Spring Training invitation from this showcase, as he represents a no-risk flier for teams looking for pitching depth.

Mariners, Logan Gilbert Yet To Have Serious Extension Talks

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Logan Gilbert is coming off his best season yet, posting a 3.23 ERA and outstanding strikeout and walk rates over a Major League-leading 208 2/3 innings.  The former 14th overall pick has lived up to the hype since making his MLB debut in 2021, and while he has cemented his place in the Mariners’ rotation, he isn’t yet a lock for the team’s future plans.  Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that “there has been little discussion about a long-term deal” between the two sides, and “nothing is imminent in that regard.”

There are several reasons why the lack of talks shouldn’t raise an alarm for M’s fans.  Gilbert is only entering his second year of arbitration eligibility, and he is under team control through 2027 as a Super Two player.  Gilbert and the Mariners avoided a hearing last winter by agreeing to a $4.05MM salary for 2024, and the right-hander’s big performance this year has put him in line for a projected $8.1MM salary in 2025.

Those numbers will keep rising if the 27-year-old Gilbert keeps pitching well in his remaining arb years, but that would still represent a relative bargain for the Mariners to have ace-level production in their rotation.  Signing Gilbert to an extension prior to Opening Day would give the M’s some cost-certainty through the rest of his arbitration years and beyond, and such a deal might still end up being a bargain since Gilbert might just be getting better.

The 2024 season saw Gilbert post a career-best 27.4% strikeout rate and 31.7% whiff rate, in addition to his usual excellent control.  His 39.3% hard-hit ball rate was also the best of his four Major League seasons, and while this only ranked in the 44th percentile of all pitchers, Gilbert had never topped the 11th percentile in any of his prior three years.

As a whole, Seattle’s rotation is not only perhaps the best in baseball but also the most cost-effective.  Luis Castillo has the big contract of the bunch in the form of the five-year, $108MM extension he signed in September 2022, but Gilbert is entering his second arb year, George Kirby is projected for $5.5MM in his first arb year, and Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller are still in their pre-arbitration years.  Former sixth overall pick Emerson Hancock hasn’t shown much over his 72 2/3 career MLB innings, but he is another promising young arm that would’ve gotten a longer look in pretty much any rotation that didn’t have such quality and durability.

This abundance of pitching talent is great for the Mariners in many ways, including the level of flexibility it gives the team in approaching extension talks.  With a nod to the “you can never have enough pitching” credo, the M’s don’t necessarily need to lock up Gilbert as soon as possible since so many other talented hurlers are on hand.  All of the remaining team control for the non-Castillo pitchers gives the Mariners extra time to weigh their options about which of the younger arms (if any) can be long-term cornerstones.  For instance, if the M’s have already seen enough from Miller or Woo, signing either to an extension earlier in their careers would come at a lower cost than an extension for Gilbert.

If any of these starters aren’t really in Seattle’s big-picture plans, a trade is always possible, which is the broader theme of Jude’s piece.  President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has strongly downplayed the idea that the Mariners will deal from their rotation this offseason, though Dipoto’s stance could soften if another team makes a strong enough offer.  Specifically, if that offer contains a comparatively talented young hitter with extra years of team control, moving a starter for this hitter would help a Seattle club in sore need of offensive help.

This isn’t to say that Gilbert would necessarily be the pitcher traded, escalating salary notwithstanding.  One NL scout told Jude that “if they have to trade someone, Miller would make the most sense,” though the scout also felt “it would be ridiculous for them to trade any of their starters.”  As Jude notes, Miller has such drastic home/away splits (2.69 ERA in 170 1/3 innings in Seattle, 4.52 ERA in 141 1/3 innings elsewhere) that other teams may be wary that Miller’s success has been a product of his pitcher-friendly ballpark.  Castillo is the least-likely trade candidate, according to one source, due to his larger contract and the fact that he’s entering his age-32 season.

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