Poll: Top Free Agent Catcher
Assuming you consider Victor Martinez a part-time catcher, part-time first baseman, and part-time designated hitter, John Buck was the best free agent catcher available this offseason. He hit .281/.314/.489 with 20 homers for the Blue Jays last year, but he's since signed a hefty three-year deal with the Marlins. As always, the number of teams looking for a quality backstop far exceed the number that are actually available, but there's still a few out there.
Miguel Olivo is a lock for double-digit homers year in and year out, and the same can be said for Rod Barajas. Both have thrown out a high percentage of would-be base stealers historically. Yorvit Torrealba has a .346 OBP over the last two years, a mark just eight other catchers can top. Jason Varitek hit for a ton of power (.473 SLG) in limited action this year. Then there's A.J. Pierzynski. He's started no fewer than 124 games behind the plate in five of the last six years, and his .284 AVG since 2008 can be topped by only three other catchers.
The Dodgers, Rangers, and Padres are known to be seeking help behind the plate, and it's safe to assume that the Mariners and Red Sox will hunt for upgrades as well. It wouldn't be a surprise if the Yankees, Rockies, Mets, or Orioles tried to improve their backup catcher situation either.
Who is the best catcher still available on the free agent market?
Click here to vote, and here to see the results. Thanks in advance.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Mariano Rivera
It's not often that a free agent class offers not just one, but two first-ballot Hall of Fame relievers, yet that's exactly the situation we're in this offseason. Let's review the stock of the great Mariano Rivera…
The Good
- Rivera remains the master at limiting base runners, holding opponents to a .181/.211/.266 batting line with just 25 unintentional walks over the last three seasons. His WHIP during that time is a microscopic 0.797.
- His postseason track record is unmatched in terms of both quantity and quality. His 139.2 playoff innings feature a 0.71 ERA and 0.766 WHIP, and it's been ten years since someone took him deep in the postseason.
- Although he's a Type-A free agent, the Yankees did not offer Rivera arbitration, so it would not cost a draft pick to sign him.
The Bad
- Rivera will turn 41 years old on Monday, and just three men in baseball history (Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Trevor Hoffman) have recorded a 20-save season at that age or older.
- He's two years removed from offseason shoulder surgery and has dealt with a nagging side injury since the 2009 playoffs.
- The velocity of his legendary cutter is gradually declining, and his 6.8 K/9 in 2010 is his second lowest strikeout rate since 1998.
The Verdict
Rivera is a free agent in name only, as just about everyone expects him to re-sign with the Yankees at some point. Even so, he's reportedly seeking a two-year deal worth $18MM a season, a price very few teams can match. The Yanks understandably want to limit a contract to one season, but there's no reason to expect Mo to wear anything but Yankee pinstripes in 2011.
What’s Next For The Dodgers?
The bulk of the moves made by the Dodgers this offseason have focused on shoring up the team's rotation, unsurprising after their starters threw the sixth fewest innings in the National League this season. Both Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda were re-signed, and the rebuild was capped off today with the Jon Garland signing. Add in the incumbent Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, and all of a sudden Ned Colletti's team boasts a deep starting staff.
Once the Garland deal was announced, Colletti told reporters that the rest of his offseason goals involve adding a bat, adding a reliever, and sorting out the team's catching situation (team Twitter link). A few weeks ago we learned that the Dodgers were likely to increase payroll next season despite the uncertainty surrounding the McCourts' divorce, and they could free up even more cash by non-tendering Russell Martin, George Sherrill, and/or Ryan Theriot. The $5.19MM they paid to former players Nomar Garciaparra, Orlando Hudson, and Jason Schmidt in 2010 disappears as well.
Colletti reportedly made a serious push for Aubrey Huff, but he's not expected to bid on Adam Dunn even though he's arguably the most dominant offensive force on the market. Colletti is likely do his shopping in the next tier of free agents, and has interest in bringing both Rod Barajas and Scott Podsednik back. Johnny Damon, Rick Ankiel, or Austin Kearns could slot into left field at a reasonable price, but that is nothing more than speculation on my part.
The late game bullpen will return next season in the form of Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, and the upstart Kenley Jansen, but Colletti will presumably look for an upgrade over Ronald Belisario (5.04 ERA) and Ramon Troncoso (4.33) for the middle innings. So far they've added a few guys on minor league contracts (most notably Dana Eveland and Oscar Villarreal), but the safe bet has them adding someone more established this winter.
Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs explained that despite his performance drop-off, Martin is still a fine option behind the plate if healthy. A.J. Ellis and Hector Gimenez would be the only backstops on the 40-man roster if he's non-tendered, and those two have just 143 plate appearances worth of big league experience combined. Barajas performed well for the Dodgers late last season, but Miguel Olivo and Yorvit Torrealba are available on the free agent market as well.
Colletti's done a great job of getting the most difficult part of his offseason out of the way early by locking up the three starting pitchers, but there's still plenty of work to be done. Luckily for him, the winter is still young.
David Aardsma’s Trade Value
The offseason is less than a month old, but the perception is that Joaquin Benoit's three-year, $16.5MM deal with the Tigers has busted the free agent reliever market. It's possible that the most cost effective bullpen pieces can now be found in trades, and Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times believes that David Aardsma's trade value has gone up without throwing a pitch since the end of the regular season.
Aardsma, 29 next month, emerged as Seattle's closer in 2009, and has pitched to a 2.90 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 121 innings with the Mariners. He's 69 for 78 in save opportunities in that time, numbers that are likely to push his salary north of $4MM in his second time through the arbitration process this offseason. Aardsma earned $2.75MM in 2010.
The Mariners, who finished with the game's second worst record in 2010, have a number of holes to fill. They have a replacement closer in waiting in Brandon League, and could shop Aardsma for an upgrade at basically any position not occupied by Chone Figgins, Ichiro Suzuki, or Franklin Gutierrez. As we've seen in recent years, hard-throwing relievers can fetch all kinds of returns.
Matt Lindstrom brought back three non-top prospect minor leaguers in a trade. Kerry Wood returned two low level minor leaguers and salary relief. Leo Nunez brought Mike Jacobs. Chris Perez and another player landed Mark DeRosa. Joel Hanrahan and Sean Burnett were essentially traded for each other. Jose Valverde, Rafael Soriano, Chad Qualls, Ramon Ramirez, Octavio Dotel … the list goes on and on.
The number of teams that could use a guy like Aardsma is 30, for all intents and purposes, but his expected salary will likely limit his market to teams with sizable wallets. Baker speculates about a fit with the Rays, but acknowledges their payroll crunch. The Red Sox are seeking bullpen help and are familiar with Aardsma after his 2008 stint with the team, then of course you have the usual suspects like the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs, Tigers, Phillies, etc. All of this is one reason why Aardsma will almost certainly not be with the Mariners come Spring Training, as Baker puts it.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Konerko, Jeter, Lee, Beltre
On this date back in 1974, Catfish Hunter met with Oakland A's owner Charles Finley and Peter Seitz of the American Arbitration Association in New York after the team failed to make a $50,000 payment into a long-term annuity fund. The right-hander claimed that his contract had been violated, and Seitz eventually ruled in his favor. Hunter became the first big name free agent in baseball history, later signing a five-year, $3.5MM contract with the Yankees that made him the highest-paid player in baseball history.
Here's a helping of links that go well with Thanksgiving leftovers…
- In the spirit of the holiday, Wahoo Blues lists ten things Indians fans have to be thankful for.
- Bucs Dugout lists some Rule 5 Draft possibilities for the Pirates.
- Baseball Time In Arlington examines the Paul Konerko option for the Rangers.
- Phillies Nation looks at Matt Thornton as a potential trade target for Philadelphia.
- We Should Be GMs wonders how much Derek Jeter is worth.
- Pine Tar And Pocket Protectors believes Justin Upton should be traded.
- The Blue Jay Hunter wants to see Toronto sign Chad Qualls to be their closer.
- Examiner tries to figure out what would constitute a fair return for Gavin Floyd.
- Sports of Boston explains why Cliff Lee should sign with the Red Sox.
- Meanwhile, The Ghost of Moonlight Graham tries to figure out who will catch for Boston in 2011.
- Halos Heaven dispels the Adrian Beltre contract year myth.
- A Diehard Cubs Fan Speaks Out and wonders if the Cubs should shift Starlin Castro to second base.
- SPANdemonium lists every player eligible for the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Pedro Feliciano
Quality left-handed relievers are always a hot commodity (perhaps even over-valued) on the free agent market, and one of the best available this winter is former Fukuoka SoftBank Hawk Pedro Feliciano. Let's review his stock…
The Good
- Feliciano's an absolute workhorse, leading the league in appearances in each of the last three seasons. He's also appeared in more games each successive year, topping out at 92 this year.
- As you'd expect, he's been excellent against left-handed batters, holding them to a .212/.271/.310 batting line with 9.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 over the last three years.
- Although he was offered arbitration, Feliciano is just a Type-B free agent, so it will not cost a draft pick to sign him.
The Bad
- Feliciano will turn 35 next summer, so all of those appearances could catch up to him in the not-too-distant future.
- He's strictly a lefty specialist; right-handers have tagged him for a .325/.420/.474 batting line over the last three seasons with nearly as many walks (50) as strikeouts (55).
- Feliciano has historically been homer prone. He allowed seven long balls in both 2008 and 2009 (1.1 HR/9) before surrendering just one in 2010 (0.1 HR/9).
- Feliciano wanted a multiyear contract extension from the Mets in 2009, so chances are he's still seeking a deal that will guarantee him more than one year.
The Verdict
Feliciano is one of those free agents that you could see fitting with all 30 teams. He's been one of the best lefty relievers in baseball over the last few years, but he doesn't offer much flexibility and is no spring chicken. Feliciano represents a nice alternative to teams scared by the asking price of Scott Downs or Brian Fuentes, so he should have his pick from several offers.
Chiba Lotte Will Accept High Bid For Nishioka
The Chiba Lotte Marines have announced that they will accept the high bid for infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka's negotiating rights, tweets Joe Christensen of The Star Tribune. The high bidder will likely be announced tomorrow, according to a second Christensen tweet.
Accepting the high bid is just one step in the process; whichever team won the bidding will have 30 days to work out a contract with Nishioka, not exactly a given as we've seen with Hisashi Iwakuma. The Twins are said to be "very much in on" Nishioka, though the Orioles and Padres did not submit bids. The Giants, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cardinals were said to be uncertain about pursuing him.
The 26-year-old shortstop hit .346/.423/.482 with 11 homers and 22 steals this season, though it was by far the best season of his career. In parts of eight seasons with Chiba Lotte, Nishioka is a .293/.364/.426 hitter. ESPN's Keith Law (Insider req'd) called him "valuable as an everyday guy on a second-division club," while NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman sees him as a Ryan Theriot/Chone Figgins type.
Non-Tender Candidate: Russell Martin
It wasn't too long ago that Russell Martin looked like an up-and-coming superstar, hitting .293/.374/.469 with 19 homers while throwing out 33% of would-be base stealers as a 24-year-old in 2007. He started 143 games behind the plate that year, and it appears as though the heavy workload has taken its toll physically. Still just 27, there's a good chance the Dodgers will decline to tender Martin a contract before the December 2nd deadline.
Martin's 2010 season came to an abrupt end in early August, when an awkward step crossing the plate resulted in a hairline fracture in his right hip. Matt Colleran, Martin's agent, clarified the extent of the injury to MLBTR and provided an update on his status. "[The misstep] resulted in a hairline fracture in his hip, and there was absolutely no damage, tear or injury to his labrum," said Colleran. "In his last medical visit on November 4th, his medical reports confirmed that the fracture was healing quickly, there were no complications to the healing since the injury, no surgery was ever performed or needed, and again, there is, and never was, any damage sustained to his labrum whatsoever."
Prior to the injury, Martin had hit just .248/.347/.332 in 387 plate appearances, continuing a trend that has seen his AVG, OBP, and OPS decline for three straight years. From 2007 through 2009, no catcher started more games behind the plate or caught as many innings as Martin, and it's not particularly close either. The wear-and-tear may have simply been too much.
The Dodgers paid Martin $5.05MM in 2010, his second of four arbitration-eligible seasons (he's a Super Two). Even with the sub-par performance and hip injury, his salary would likely climb north of $6MM in 2011. Quality catching is a hot commodity, but the injury and declining performance combined with the potential salary could make Martin expendable in GM Ned Colletti's eyes.
Will the Dodgers non-tender Russell Martin?
Click here to vote and here to see the results. Thanks in advance.
Poll: Will Anyone Sign Manny Ramirez?
You know a player has set lofty standards when everyone considers a .298/.409/.460 season to be a disappointment, but that's exactly what Manny Ramirez did in 2010. He hit just .261/.420/.319 in 88 plate appearances following his mid-season trade to the White Sox, and they unsurprisingly declined to offer the Type-A free agent earlier this week. MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez now wonders if this is it for one of the greatest hitters we'll ever see.
When he ranked Manny the 19th best free agent on the market (insider req'd), ESPN's Keith Law said he's "lost enough bat speed that when he squares a ball up it doesn't take off the way that it did for him before the 2009 season … The explosiveness he had at the plate well into his 30s is all but gone." Ramirez has hit 20 or fewer homers in three of the last four seasons, and his bat is no longer justifying his atrocious defense or various other antics. He also hit the disabled list three times with leg-related ailments this season.
Scott Boras recently said he's seeking a one-year, incentive-laden contract that will allow Ramirez to serve as a full-time designated hitter, but Gonzalez mentions all of the other cheap DH options on the market (Hideki Matsui, Jim Thome, Lance Berkman, Vladimir Guerrero among others) that could reasonably approximate his production. The Blue Jays seem like a logical fit, and although Manny has interest, we don't know if it's mutual.
Two or three years ago a poll question like this would have been unthinkable, but with Ramirez in obvious decline at age 38, it would not be a surprise if teams looking for a DH went in another direction. On to the poll…
Will anyone sign Manny Ramirez this offseason?
Click here to vote, and here to see the results. Thanks in advance.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Miguel Olivo
The Blue Jays pulled off a nice little move when they acquired Miguel Olivo from the Rockies 17 days ago, essentially swapping a player to be named later or cash for a supplemental first round draft pick. Toronto declined Olivo's $2.5MM option, so add the $500K buyout to the bounty for the draft pick, but more importantly it made Olivo a free agent. Let's review the backstop's stock…
The Good
- Olivo is a proven power threat, hitting no fewer than a dozen homers every year since 2006 and averaging 16 per season during that span. Brian McCann is the only other backstop with double digit homers in each of those years (min. 60% of games behind the plate).
- He's adept at stopping the running game, throwing out 124 of 343 attempted basestealers (36.2%) over the last five seasons.
- Despite the rigors of catching, Olivo has been on the disabled list just once in his career; he missed 15 days when he had kidney stones removed during the summer of 2004. Other than various day-to-day ailments associated with the position, he's been perfectly healthy.
- He's just a Type-B free agent, so it won't cost a draft pick to sign him.
The Bad
- Olivo will turn 33 next July, an age when catchers can start to turn into pumpkins.
- Power is the only thing to like about his offensive game. He doesn't hit for average (.246 career) or draw walks (just 108 unintentional walks in over 3,000 career plate appearances), resulting in paltry on-base percentages (.283 career).
- As good as he is at throwing out base runners, Olivo has led the league in passed balls in four of the last five seasons.
The Verdict
As usual, the number of teams looking for a catcher this winter far exceeds the number of quality catchers available. The Red Sox, Tigers, White Sox, Rangers, Mariners, Dodgers, Padres, and others could all be in the market for a new backstop, so Olivo should have his pick of offers. He's not likely to match John Buck's three-year, $18MM contract given his age, but Olivo's one of the best free agent catchers and the open market should yield a two-year contract.