Thome Leaning Towards Playing In 2011
2:06pm: Joe Christensen and La Velle E. Neal III from the Minneapolis Star Tribune also spoke to Thome about a potential return in 2011. Christensen and Neal remind us that Thome has repeatedly stated how much he enjoyed Minnesota, and provide this quote from the man with 589 home runs to his name:
"I love the game. I'd love to come back, I really would, and Minnesota was a great place, so we'll see how the winter goes. It would be great."
My own speculation, but Thome's potential return to Minnesota might depend on the Twins' decision on Jason Kubel's $5.25MM club option for 2011. Kubel, expected to be the regular DH in 2010, was forced into right field when Michael Cuddyer switched to first base following Justin Morneau's season-ending concussion. That lineup juggle opened the door for Thome's strong 2010. After posting such impressive numbers, he may be able to find more playing time with a different contender if Kubel returns.
Kubel's .249/.323/.427 line doesn't look nearly as impressive as Thome's, but he gives the Twins the options of playing him in the outfield (though his career -18.9 UZR/150 in the outfield doesn't inspire confidence). He did hit .300/.369/.539 with 28 home runs in 2009, so he's capable of being a highly productive DH. The Twins hold a $350K buyout on Kubel's option.
9:14am: The Twins' season came to an abrupt and disappointing end last night, but it sounds like Jim Thome won't allow his career to suffer the same fate. Thome kept it short and sweet with Kelsie Smith and Brian Murphy of The St. Paul Pioneer Press after the game, saying "Yeah, I think I'm coming back [for 2011]." Last month he admitted that retirement would have been tempting if the Twins won it all.
The 40-year-old Thome became a folk hero in Minnesota this season, something that tends to happen when you hit .283/.412/.627 with 25 homers in 340 plate appearances. He absolutely annihilated righthanded pitching, hitting .302/.445/.698 with 19 homers off pitchers of the opposite hand. At .241/.298/.471, he wasn't all that terrible against lefties either. With 589 career homers to his credit, Thome should become the eighth member of the 600 home run club next summer.
Thome signed a one-year deal worth just $1.5MM last offseason (he did earn another $200K in bonuses tied to plate appearances), the bargain signing of the year. MLBTR's Mark Polishuk looked at Thome's free agent stock two weeks ago, and you have to figure it's pretty high right now.
MLBTR's Steve Adams also contributed to this post.
Amateur Signing Bonuses: Diamondbacks
Every year all 30 clubs will spend millions of dollars to procure amateur talent, but that still pales in comparison to the amount they spend on their big league roster. As young players have become more prominent in baseball and teams shifted their focus to the draft and international market, the amount of money spent on amateur players has skyrocketed.
In this series we'll look at the largest bonuses each club has given to amateur players, and see what kind of return they got on the investment. Let's start off with the Diamondbacks…
- Travis Lee, $10MM (1996)
- Justin Upton, $6.1MM (2005)
- John Patterson, $6MM (1996)
- Stephen Drew, $4MM (2004)
- Max Scherzer, $3MM (2006)
Lee and Patterson have interesting back stories. Both advised by Scott Boras at the time of the 1996 draft, they were declared free agents (along with Matt White and Bobby Seay) when Boras found a loophole in the signing process. The Twins selected Lee with the second overall pick, but they failed to tender him a contract within 15 days of the draft as required. Patterson, taken sixth overall by the Expos, did receive a contract offer within the 15 day window but it was not on official team letterhead.
The Diamondbacks were still two years away from their inaugural season and in the process of building their organization, so they dipped deep into their wallets to sign two premium talents. Lee went on to hit .252/.336/.401 in 338 games for Arizona before being traded to Philadelphia in July 2000 as part of the Curt Schilling deal. Patterson didn't debut in the big leagues until 2002, and he threw just 85.2 innings (5.04 ERA) for the D-Backs. They dealt him to the Expos in 2004 for Randy Choate. Both Lee and Patterson have been out of baseball for several years now.
Upton was the first overall pick in the 2005 draft and signed what was then the largest minor league contract in draft history. Still just 23, he's on the cusp of stardom (.272/.352/.471 career) although a shoulder injury sabotaged his 2010 season. Drew signed the largest contract of the 2004 draft as the 15th overall pick after a year long holdout (this was before the signing deadline was implemented), and through four-plus seasons as a big leaguer he's hit .272/.332/.448. Scherzer was the 11th overall pick in a 2006 class loaded with college pitching, and he went on to post a 3.86 ERA in 226.1 innings for Arizona before being included in last winter's Curtis Granderson–Edwin Jackson–Ian Kennedy blockbuster.
Cafardo’s Latest: Matsuzaka, Managers, Konerko
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe spoke to nearly a dozen scouts and executives and found that there would be substantial interest in Daisuke Matsuzaka if the Red Sox made the righthander available in a trade this offseason. Most of those polled believe Boston would have to kick in some money to offset the two-years and $20MM left on his deal, but it's unclear what they would want in return. As Cafardo reminds us, there's no such thing as too much pitching depth, so the Sox could simply hold onto him.
As far as teams that could have potential interest in Dice-K, Cafardo names the Mariners, Mets, Dodgers, Brewers, Rangers, and Tigers. Here are the rest of his rumors…
- There's talk that the Red Sox might go after Yu Darvish if he's posted this winter, and there is a little bit of a New England connection there: Darvish's father attended school in the area.
- Doug Melvin said he will go outside the organization to replace departed manager Ken Macha, which rules out Dale Sveum and Willie Randolph.
- Jim Hendry and Cubs ownership likes what interim manager Mike Quade got out of his players down the stretch, so the sentiment to retain him is growing.
- Fredi Gonzalez turned down a chance to interview with the Cubbies, and it's looking more and more likely that he will take over for the retiring Bobby Cox in Atlanta.
- Alex Anthopoulos is looking at third base/bench coaches for his next manager, while Neal Huntington might dip into his Indians' roots to fill the Pirates' managerial vacancy.
- Paul Konerko indicated that contract length won't be much of a factor when he hits free agency this winter because he isn't sure how much longer he wants to play. Kenny Williams indicated that there might not be enough room in the budget for the White Sox to bring back their captain, especially if they seeks out a lefty bat as expected.
- Jason Varitek wants to return to the Red Sox but the team is thinking bigger picture with Jarrod Saltalamacchia on board. Cafardo suggests the Marlins as a potential landing spot for Varitek, where he would work with the team's young pitchers.
- Meanwhile, the Sox could sign John Buck as a stopgap while they wait for Salty to establish himself.
- Teams in need of a second baseman are very interested in Jed Lowrie, though at least one scout thinks he can stick at shortstop. The 26-year-old hit .287/.381/.526 in 197 plate appearances this year.
- Despite a strong finish (1.41 ERA in his last ten starts), the Cubs would still like to move Carlos Zambrano. Of course, they're going to have to eat some of the $55MM left of his contract to do so.
- Cafardo thinks that Carl Pavano could command a three-year deal worth $30MM as a free agent this winter, but he'd have to give a bit of a discount to return to Minnesota. The Twins have shown a willingness to spend in the last year, so this will be an interesting negotiation for them.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Gerald Laird
Steve Adams already looked at the stock of one impending free agent in A.J. Pierzynski earlier today, now let's turn our attention to another AL Central catcher. The Tigers informed Gerald Laird that they will not attempt to re-sign him after the season just a week ago, so the soon-to-be 31-year-old backstop will hit the open market for the first time in his career.
Let's see what his stock looks like heading into the winter…
The Good
- Laird is arguably the best in baseball when it comes to shutting down the opponent's running game. His 34% caught stealing rate was second base among AL catchers this year with at least 650 innings caught this season, and over the last five years he's thrown out a studly 37.6% of base runners.
- He's extremely durable for a catcher, hitting the disabled list just once since 2004. Like all other catchers though, he'll occasionally miss a day or two with bumps and bruises. It comes with the territory.
- As a Type-B free agent, a team will not have to surrender a draft pick to sign Laird. It's unlikely that the Tigers would offer him arbitration anyway.
The Bad
- Laird isn't much of a hitter these days, bottoming out at just .207/.263/.304 in 299 plate appearances this year. Over the last three seasons he's put together a .238/.303/.342 batting line.
- Laird's a Scott Boras client, so negotiations don't figure to be easy.
The Verdict
The offensive bar for catchers is pretty low right now, with backstops around the league hitting just .249/.319/.381 in 2010. Given the lack of offense found at the position, teams are focusing more on defense behind the plate, so Laird's cannon arm has definite value.
Jose Molina, a similar no-hit/all-throw catcher, was only able to find a one-year deal worth $400K guaranteed (plus incentives and an club option) last offseason, and even then he had to wait until mid-February. Laird is likely facing a similar situation; a one-year, low base salary contract with some performance bonuses to be a backup somewhere. Catchers are always getting hurt, so even if he settles for a minor league deal he'll probably get an opportunity at some point next summer.
Non-Tender Candidate: Brian Bannister
One of Dayton Moore's very first moves as general manager of the Royals was to swap hard-throwing but enigmatic reliever Ambiorix Burgos to the Mets for then 25-year-old righthander Brian Bannister. Bannister had just 38 big league innings to his credit at the time (4.26 ERA) but he was consistently excellent in minors (3.31 career minor league ERA at the time of the trade) and considered ready to step into a big league rotation. After a brief tune-up in Triple-A to start the 2007 season, the now 29-year-old Bannister joined Kansas City's starting staff and has remained there ever since.
Nearly four full years after the fact, it's easy to declare Moore the winner of the trade. Not only has Bannister out-WAR'ed Burgos 7.1 to 0.0 since the deal, but the latter hasn't even pitched since 2008 due to a litany of legal issues. Perhaps best known for his love of advanced statistics, Bannister has given the Royals 629.1 innings across 108 starts (and one relief appearance) in his four seasons with the team, posting 5.13 ERA with 5.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. Shoulder tendinitis this August prevented him from eclipsing the 150 inning mark for a fourth straight season.
After making $2.3MM in 2010, Bannister will go through the arbitration process one final time this winter before becoming a free agent after next season. He posted an ugly 6.34 ERA in 127.2 innings this year, and the .302/.365/.503 line opponents managed against him approximates Ryan Braun's 2010 production (.304/.365/.501). Never a big stuff guy, Bannister's fastball actually crept up in the last few seasons and now sits right around 90 mph.
Bannister was a fine piece when he was making six figures, but now that he's entered into multi-million dollar territory, Moore will assuredly think twice before tendering the righty a contract this offseason. In fact, Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star recently predicted that the team will shop Bannister around this offseason and could non-tender him if they don't find a taker. Bannister's name has been featured at each of the last two trade deadlines, but obviously no deal was made and now the team is facing the possibility of losing him for nothing.
If you haven't seen it already, or if you just want to read it again, make sure you check out the Q&A Tim conducted with Bannister back in 2008 (parts one, two, and three). Once you're done with that, click here to vote about what you think the Royals will do with Bannister after he season, and here to see the results.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Halladay, Fielder, Mets
On this date two years ago, the Cubs exercised Rich Harden's $9MM option for 2009 after tests showed that his throwing shoulder was healthy. Harden made 26 starts with a 4.09 ERA, 10.9 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 in 141 innings that year before joining the Rangers in the offseason. The 28-year-old battled through another injury plagued year in 2010, throwing just 92 innings with a 5.58 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 6.3 BB/9 for Texas.
Harden might not be able to find a guaranteed Major League deal on the free agent market this winter, but I can guarantee that these links represent the best from around the blogosphere…
- Crashburn Alley re-lives Roy Halladay's playoff no-hitter, moment by moment.
- Meanwhile, Phoul Ballz spoke to some Blue Jays minor leaguers about how Doc's effort inspired them.
- The Nats Blog debates Halladay's Cy Young candidacy. Not that anyone asked me, but I consider him the frontrunner, and it's not particularly close either.
- Blogging From The Bleachers takes an in depth look at how Japanese pitchers have transitioned to MLB.
- The OC Baseball Council examines some potential destinations for Prince Fielder.
- U.S.S. Mariner looks at some free agent second base options for the Mariners.
- Amazin' Avenue reveals their John Hart-Rick Hahn-Chip Hale management plan.
- Blogging Mets hands out a final report card for the 2010 Mets.
- Waiting For Next Year compares how the Indians' roster was built to those of some postseason clubs.
- SD Sports Net wonders if Ryan Ludwick should be patrolling the Padres' outfield next season.
- Cubs Pack wonders what life will be like after Aramis Ramirez.
- The Outfield Ivy looks at some first base options for the Cubs next season.
- SPANdemonium lists the game's 50 more underrated prospects.
- Batter's Box names their top ten Blue Jays prospects.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here
Padres Notes: Gonzalez, Bell, Tejada, Coaches
Earlier tonight we learned that the Padres will not pick up Chris Young's $8.5MM option for 2011 and that GM Jed Hoyer will meet with Adrian Gonzalez's agent in the coming weeks, but MLB.com's Corey Brock brings us some more rumors. Let's dive in…
- Hoyer confirmed that the team will exercise Gonzalez's $6.2MM option for next season when the time comes. There was never a doubt about this one. He also mentioned that they will listen to trade offers for their star player during the winter.
- They will also listen to offers for closer Heath Bell, who figures to earn a nice raise after pulling down $4MM in 2010. "I haven't made any definitive decisions, but we are a better team with [Gonzalez and Bell] than without them," Hoyer said. "I'm sort of in the never-say-never category. In this business, the job is to make the team and the organization as good as it can be."
- Hoyer indicated that he would be open to bringing Miguel Tejada back, but not at the $6MM salary he earned in 2010. The 36-year-old hit .268/.317/.413 with eight homers in 253 plate appearances after being acquired at the deadline, and he even moved back to his natural position of shortstop for all but four games.
- Bench coach Ted Simmons will not return next season as he looks for a managerial job. First base coach Rick Renteria could replace him, but he is expected to interview for some manager jobs himself. Hitting coach Randy Ready is in the same boat as Renteria.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Cliff Lee
It's not often that a bonafide ace hits the free agent market, but when one does it often leads to a feeding frenzy of big market clubs and mystery teams. Current Rangers ace and former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and in a few weeks he will be able to offer his services to the highest bidder on the open market for the first time in his career.
Lee's credentials are undeniable, but teams must still weigh the good against the bad when preparing to offer anyone a contract of this magnitude. Let's break it down…
The Good
- Lee is a proven workhorse, logging 667.1 innings over the last three seasons. He's thrown at least 200 innings in five of the last six years and made at least 28 starts in six of the last seven years.
- If you're a believer in WAR, Lee's +20.8 mark since 2008 is second only to Roy Halladay's +21.5 among all pitchers.
- He's proven himself in the American League, so there won't be any adjustment period as far as that is concerned.
- Lee's command is off-the-charts, evidenced by a 0.8 BB/9 this season. He also set a new single season record with a 10.28 K/BB ratio (min. 150 innings).
- Although he mixes in a curveball, Lee is primarily a fastball-cutter-changeup pitcher without huge velocity. As Andy Pettitte and Jamie Moyer have shown, lefthanders with that arsenal can pitch forever as long as they have their health.
The Bad
- Lee is on the wrong side of 30, having turned 32 just over a month ago.
- He battled some back issues last month, and has a history of oblique trouble dating back to 2003. His arm has been relatively free of injury, however.
- As a Type-A free agent certain to be offered arbitration, any team except Texas will have to forfeit a high draft to sign him.
- The Yankees have long had interest in Lee (they almost acquired him this summer), and if they get involved in the bidding it would make life very difficult for everyone else.
The Verdict
Despite the back issues, Lee is certain to become one of the two or three highest paid pitchers in baseball in the coming months. Every team would love to be able to add him to their staff, but it's only economically feasible for a handful. The Yankees have a leg up on everyone else not just because they can offer the most money, but also because Lee is close with CC Sabathia from their Cleveland days.
That said, the Rangers just signed a lucrative television deal that enables them to make a competitive offer, and we'd be foolish to rule out traditional big spenders like the Mets, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers (regardless of what they've said). Even the Orioles and Nationals have shown a willingness to go big game hunting on the free agent market recently, so don't be surprised if they get involved as well.
Lee might not be able to secure a seven-year, $161MM deal like Sabathia since he's three years older than CC was when he hit the market, but $20MM annually for five years seems like nothing more than a starting point.
Padres Will Not Pick Up Young’s Option, Hoyer To Meet With Gonzalez’s Agent In Coming Weeks
Despite a heartbreaking end, the 2010 season should be considering nothing but a smashing success for the Padres. They sat atop the NL West for the majority of the season and were in contention for a playoff spot until Game 162 even though almost everyone considered them to be one of the worst teams in the league coming out of Spring Training. They did all that with a payroll approaching just $38MM (according to Cot's), less than the Yankees pay the left side of their infield.
That said, the team can not afford to spend $8.5MM on an injury prone Chris Young next season, and Dan Hayes of The North County Times reports that the team will decline his 2011 option (Twitter links). The Padres are open to bringing him back, but it would have to be at a lesser price. Young has thrown just 198.1 innings (4.13 ERA) over the last three seasons due to back and shoulder issues, not to mention facial fractures suffered when he was hit by a line drive.
With that out of the way, the focus will inevitably turn to homegrown megastar Adrian Gonzalez, who will become a free agent 12 months from now once the team picks up his $6.2MM no-brainer option for 2011. It's been assumed for two years now that Gonzalez would be traded at some point, simply because the team is unlikely to be able to afford him in the future and they could certainly fetch more value than two draft picks on the trade market.
GM Jed Hoyer told MLB.com's Corey Brock that he obviously wants to keep Gonzalez on the team going into next season, but he would not guarantee that it will happen (Twitter link). Hoyer also said that he will meet with Gonzalez's agent John Boggs at some point in the coming weeks, and indicated that payroll will increase an undisclosed amount next season (Hayes Twitter link). Unless they're expanding the payroll considerably, it's tough to imagine a new contract with Gonzalez being hammered out.
Amazingly, the Padres only have $1.1MM in salary obligation for next season, and that's broken down into a $600K buyout of Jon Garland's $6.75MM option and a $500K buyout of Yorvit Torrealba's $3.5MM option. Everyone else on the roster is either due to become a free agent in a few weeks or is still in their pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible seasons when contracts are not guaranteed. There's certainly no albatross contracts hanging over their heads that are preventing them from signing Gonzalez.
During the summer we heard rumors that Adrian could seek an eight-year deal when he hits free agency, likely meaning that he's looking for Mark Teixeira money. The 28-year-old has hit .288/.374/.514 with an average of just over 32 homers per season in his five years as a Padre, but outside of Petco Park those numbers jump to .303/.376/.568. He's also considered to be one of the game's best defenders, so the Teixeira comparisons are appropriate. About the only thing Gonzalez doesn't do is switch hit.
Blue Jays Notes: Overbay, Encarnacion, Bautista
Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos met with reporters for an extended media session today, speaking about a wide range of topics. MLB.com's Jordan Bastian brings us the highlights…
- Anthopoulos acknowledged Lyle Overbay's strong finish to the season, but the team's approach for first base is unchanged. They will explore trades and the free agent market with no guarantee that Overbay will return.
- Aaron Hill offered to change positions (third base) if it will help the team. The Jays have until Opening Day of next season to make a decision on the 2012 ($8MM), 2013 ($8MM), and 2014 ($10MM) options in Hill's contract. If they wait until after next season, the 2014 option is voided.
- There is a chance that Edwin Encarnacion will be non-tendered given the raise he's likely to receive through arbitration. Encarnacion earned $4.75MM in 2010 and will be arb eligible for the final time before free agency.
- The Jays are prepared to go to arbitration with 54 HR man Jose Bautista. He earned $2.4MM this year and his salary is likely to jump into the $7-9MM range after his monster season. Bastian doesn't think the two sides will work out a long-term deal this winter.
- Fred Lewis was unhappy when his playing time diminished late in the season. If he's not in the team's plans as a bench player next year, a non-tender could be in order.
- Even with Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, and Jason Frasor all eligible to become free agents in a few weeks, Anthopoulos doesn't consider having veterans in the bullpen a top priority.
- He'd like to add more balance to a lineup that relied primarily on the long ball this season. The Jays led MLB by a large margin with 257 homers, but they finished just ninth with 755 runs scored because of a pedestrian .312 OBP.
- The possibility of keeping catcher John Buck will be explored, but Anthopoulos said he's earned a long-term deal and a starting job, something that might not work with top prospect J.P. Arencibia having nothing left to prove in the minors.
- The Blue Jays are not operating with a specific payroll; the GM has the ability to adjust the finances as he sees fit. That gives them more flexibility when looking at free agent and trade scenarios.
- There are no more front office hirings in the immediate future, but one thing they're considering is someone with more of a computer and statistical analysis background.
- Shi Davidi of The Canadian Press adds that Anthopoulos acknowledged the inherent riskiness of trades, but he still considers it the best way to improve the team and is willing to deal prospects for established big leaguers (Twitter links).