Dodgers Designate Brent Honeywell Jr. For Assignment
The Dodgers announced this morning that they’ve designated right-hander Brent Honeywell Jr. for assignment. The move clears space for right-hander Ben Casparius, whose promotion was reported yesterday, on both the 40-man and active rosters.
It’s the second time this year Honeywell, 29, has been DFA’d despite solid results at the big league level. The right-hander began the year with the Pirates on a minor league deal and posted fairly middling results at the Triple-A level with the club but has looked good ever since he was selected to the majors early last month. He pitched just 3 1/3 innings before being cut loose by Pittsburgh, though he was promptly claimed by the Dodgers and continued to post strong numbers in ten appearances with L.A. over the past month. Altogether, Honeywell has compiled a sterling 2.28 ERA in 23 2/3 innings of work across twelve appearances this year.
Impressive as those surface-level numbers are, it’s worth noting that Honeywell’s peripherals suggest regression could be on the way. The righty’s strikeout rate is just 13.8% in the majors this year, and while that’s been paired with a strong 6.4% walk rate that lack of strikeouts leads to a lot of traffic on the bases. Honeywell has kept the scoring to a minimum to this point thanks to a very inflated 89.6% strand rate, but the righty’s 4.74 FIP, 5.28 xERA, and and 4.67 SIERA all suggest that things could get ugly for the righty if his sequencing begins to normalize.
With that being said, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest the right-hander could be a worthwhile contributor to a big league pitching staff. A second-round pick by the Rays back in 2014, Honeywell spent half a decade as a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport, even reaching consensus top-15 status prior to the 2018 season after pitching to an excellent 3.49 ERA in 26 starts split between the Double- and Triple-A levels the year prior. Unfortunately for Honeywell, he did not pitch from 2018 to 2020 due to injuries, and he hasn’t looked quite the same ever since that three-year layoff.
After an ill-fated big league debut with the Rays back in 2021, Honeywell struggled badly in the minors until he received an extended opportunity in the Padres bullpen last year that saw him hold his own with a 4.05 ERA in 46 2/3 innings of work while striking 20.6% of batters faced, a far more respectable clip than he’s posted this year despite his impressive results. Given his prospect pedigree, strong results this year, and performance as a solid middle relief arm for the Padres last year, it’s easy to imagine a team having enough interest to claim him off waivers in the coming days. Should Honeywell clear waivers, the Dodgers will have the opportunity to assign him outright to the minor leagues, though he’d be able to reject that assignment in favor of free agency if he so desired.
Diamondbacks Outright Humberto Castellanos
The Diamondbacks have assigned right-hander Humberto Castellanos outright to Triple-A Reno, according to the transactions log on his MLB.com profile page. Castellanos was designated for assignment by the club last week to clear roster space for the return of right-hander Merrill Kelly.
Castellanos, 26, made his big league debut with the Astros back in 2020 but struggled in 10 2/3 innings of work during the shortened season with a 6.75 ERA and 5.35 FIP. Despite those struggles, the Dbacks were interested enough in the righty to claim him off waivers from Houston the following winter, and while the 23-year-old didn’t make the club’s Opening Day roster in 2021 he found his way to Arizona later that season in a swing role. He’d remain in that flexible role with the club over the next two years, shuttling not only between the major and minor leagues but also between the bullpen and the rotation.
Overall, Castellanos’s results left much to be desired in 2021 and ’22 as he pitched to a combined 5.30 ERA and 4.91 FIP in 90 innings of work. It’s worth noting, however, that the right-hander’s numbers were much better out of the bullpen as he posted a 3.68 ERA while striking out 22.2% of batters faced. That may have portended the ability to act as a solid pure reliever, although any hope of finding out more about that possibility was temporarily scuttled by Castellanos undergoing Tommy John surgery late in the 2022 season. Castellanos was outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster while rehabbing but returned to the club on a minor league deal.
The right-hander returned to action as a starter at the minor league level earlier this year but was brought up to the majors to act as a multi-inning reliever when he eventually got the call back to the bigs in June. That first taste of big league action in nearly two years did not go well, as he was lit up for five runs in 2 1/3 innings of work before promptly being sent back down to the minors. He returned to the big leagues last month and looked a lot better as he scattered just six hits and two walks across eight innings of work split between six relief appearances (good for a 1.13 ERA and 2.80 FIP), but that small-sample success wasn’t enough to convince Arizona to keep him on their 40-man roster, perhaps due in part to his lackluster 18.2% strikeout rate even in that otherwise-impressive stretch.
Now back in the minors with Arizona, Castellanos figures to act as a non-roster depth option for the club down the stretch. The right-hander’s pitch counts have stayed fairly low during his most recent stint in the minor leagues and he’s seemingly benefited from that change, with a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings of work across three starts. If Castellanos continues to find success in shorter bursts at the minor league level, it’s feasible to imagine him getting another look in the majors as a reliever at some point in the future, whether that be with Arizona later this year or after he returns to free agency this winter.
Cardinals Notes: Matz, Lynn, Siani
Veteran lefty Steven Matz has missed most of the 2024 season due to back issues, including a setback in his rehab back in June as he was building up his pitch toward a return to the big leagues. Fortunately for the Cardinals, however, it appears the southpaw is once again nearing a return.
As noted by MLB.com’s John Denton, manager Oli Marmol told reporters yesterday afternoon that Matz, who had pitched four scoreless frames on 76 pitches the night prior, was nearing a return to the big leagues. Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch added that the Cardinals currently plan to have Matz return to St. Louis to be evaluated by the team’s medical staff before they decide whether or not he should return to the big league staff immediately, though (per Denton) Marmol indicated that the veteran is likely to make one more rehab start before returning to the majors.
The 33-year-old could provide some relief for a rotation that has struggled somewhat this season, with only Sonny Gray providing consistently above-average performances. Gray has posted decent results with excellent peripherals as the club’s top starter, with a 3.93 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 3.14 FIP in 22 starts this year. Andre Pallante has been another bright spot, impressing in 13 starts this year with a 3.75 ERA and nearly-matching 3.76 FIP since entering a rotation role in late May despite a lackluster 18.8% strikeout rate in those contests.
Looking beyond that duo, however, the results have left much to be desired. Miles Mikolas has posted a 5.41 ERA that’s 21% worse than league average by ERA+ and is the worst figure he’s posted in a season since returning to stateside ball in 2018 following a stint in Japan, while Lance Lynn had struggled to a 4.78 ERA with a 4.66 FIP in his last ten starts before going on the injured list with right knee inflammation at the end of July. St. Louis had spent much of this season leaning on Kyle Gibson for back-of-the-rotation consistency and attempted to fortify their rotation by adding Erick Fedde at the trade deadline, but the pair have posted ERAs of 6.11 and 5.63 respectively since the calendar flipped to August.
Of course, Matz is hardly a sure bet to provide quality innings out of the rotation himself. The lefty’s Cardinals tenure has been a bumpy one, as he posted a 5.25 ERA in 48 innings during his first season with the club and followed that up with a 5.72 ERA in his first ten starts last year. Those struggles ultimately left him demoted to the bullpen last summer, though he managed to pitch his way back into a rotation role down the stretch and posted excellent numbers (a 1.84 ERA and a 31.2% strikeout rate) in seven starts after being reinstated as a starter. That strong finish last year left plenty of reason for optimism regarding Matz entering this year, but in six starts before being sidelined back in May he struggled badly with a 6.18 ERA.
While some of those difficulties can surely be attributed to the small sample size and an inflated .362 BABIP posted by Matz’s opponents this year, that Matz struck out just 13.7% of batters prior to going on the shelf is cause for at least some concern. If Matz looks good upon his return, it’s easy to imagine him sticking in the club’s rotation mix for the rest of the season, although it’s also possible he’ll find himself back in the bullpen at some point.
Lynn’s impending return, which could potentially come even more quickly than that of Matz, also figures to play a role in the Cardinals’ rotation decisions. The veteran right-hander has been sidelined for nearly three weeks by knee inflammation but is slowly approaching a return to action, with Marmol telling reporters (including Worthy) that Matz is expected to throw a live bullpen session early this week. That’s a notable step forward for the 37-year-old, particularly because Marmol left the door open (as noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) for the righty to return to action later in the week without a rehab assignment if his upcoming session goes well.
With both Lynn and Matz seemingly nearing returns to action, the Cardinals figure to have an excess of rotation options from which they can decide how best to line up for the stretch run as they look to push their way back into postseason contention after going just 4-10 so far in the month of August. In addition to the pitching reinforcements the club expects to get, Denton notes that the club’s run prevention apparatus could be getting a lift in center field in the near future as standout defender Michael Siani has already resumed swinging a bat after being sidelined by an oblique strain just two weeks ago. Siani recently received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his abdomen to aid his return to action, which could come before the end of the month if he continues to progress quickly.
Mets Activate Starling Marte, Designate Ben Gamel For Assignment
The Mets have activated veteran outfielder Starling Marte from the 10-day injured list, according to a team announcement. To make room for Marte on the active roster, the club has designated outfielder Ben Gamel for assignment. The club’s 40-man roster now stands at 39.
Marte, 35, is a two-time All-Star and veteran of 13 MLB seasons who first joined the Mets back in 2022. The outfielder’s time in New York got off to a strong start in his first season with the club when he slashed an excellent .292/.347/.468 (134 wRC+) in 505 trips to the plate. That earned him his second career All-Star appearance and even some down-ballot MVP votes, but the good times did not continue until his sophomore season with the Mets as he was plagued by injury woes and struggled to perform even in the 86 games where he was healthy enough to take the field with a lackluster 76 wRC+ thanks in large part to career-worst power numbers.
It was hard to know what to expect from Marte entering the 2024 season after battling groin, migraine, and neck issues the previous year. In terms of results on the field, Marte’s performance has been a clear success as he’s slashed a solid .278/.328/.416 (113 wRC+) while chipping in 12 stolen bases in 66 games. The downside, of course, is that Marte has been limited to just 66 games due to a bone bruise in his knee that sidelined him for nearly two months. Now that he’s once again active, Marte figures to work into a crowded outfield mix that currently features Brandon Nimmo and Jesse Winker in the outfield corners with Harrison Bader in center while Jeff McNeil also vies for occasional starts.
It’s not yet clear just how frequently Marte will start going forward given the strong performances of Bader and Winker this year, although it’s worth noting that Winker has slumped somewhat in 14 games since being dealt to New York by the Nationals. It’s possible that the Mets will use Marte as their usual starter in right field while allowing Winker to mix in to keep the oft-injured veteran fresh, perhaps also kicking Nimmo to center on occasion to get Winker into the lineup more often. At the very least, Marte appears to be a strong bet to make regular starts against lefty pitchers given the fact that Winker and Bader both sport lackluster numbers against southpaws.
Exiting the roster to make room for Marte is Gamel, a 32-year-old outfielder who has now played in parts of nine big league seasons. Initially a tenth-round pick by the Yankees back in 2010, Gamel made his big league debut with the club in 2016 but lasted just six games before being dealt to Seattle. He posted a roughly league average .264/.334/.392 slash line in four seasons as a regular with the Mariners and Brewers from 2017 to 2020 and has subsequently offered similarly average production at the plate while bouncing between Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Queens.
He’s stepped up to the plate just 30 times with the Mets at the big league level this year, posting a .217/.400/.261 in that minimal playing time but paired it with an excellent .314/.423/.539 line at the Triple-A level. With the trade deadline in the rear view mirror, Gamel figures to be placed on waivers in the coming days, where any team will have the opportunity to claim the outfielder and bring him into the fold. If he clears waivers, he’ll have the opportunity to elect free agency and return to the open market in search of an opportunity elsewhere, though it’s also possible he could remain with the Mets as non-roster depth.
Pirates Re-Sign Josh Walker To Minor League Deal
The Pirates re-signed left-hander Josh Walker to a minor league deal earlier this week, as noted by Alex Stumpf of MLB.com. Walker was dealt from the Mets to the Pirates at the trade deadline last month but was designated for assignment shortly thereafter. Walker suffered an undisclosed injury shortly after joining the Pirates and, as a result, could not be placed on outright waivers when Pittsburgh designated him for assignment. As such, the club evidently instead released Walker before re-signing him to a minor league deal to clear his spot on the 40-man roster while still retaining him in the organization.
Walker, 29, was picked by the Mets in the 37th round of the 2017 draft. The lefty struggled to stay on the field early in his professional career with just 29 total affiliated appearances from 2017 to 2019, most of which came in relief. Following the cancelled minor league season in 2020, Walker returned to action as a starting pitcher in the minors and rapidly climbed the minor league level but hit a bit of a wall at Triple-A, where he struggled to a 5.19 ERA with a strikeout rate of just 15.8% in nine starts.
Those difficulties as a starter in the upper levels of the minors combined with an injury-marred 2022 season led Walker to move back into a relief role in 2023. He put together a dominant performance at Triple-A that year, posting a sparkling 1.84 ERA in 29 1/3 innings while striking out a fantastic 33.3% of batters faced. That excellent work in the minors was enough to earn Walker his first big league call-up at the age of 28 last year, but the lefty struggled in the majors as he allowed eleven runs, nine of them earned, and walked an elevated 12.5% of batters faced in ten big league innings last year. 2024 was more of the same during his time in the Mets organization, as he struck out 31% of batters faced with a strong 2.84 ERA but walked 10.9% of opponents with a lackluster ERA of 5.10.
Walker seemed likely to get another look in the majors with the Pirates at some point this year but his aforementioned injury seems to have derailed things for him, at least for the time being. With few details available regarding Walker’s injury and his timetable for return it’s unclear when or if he’ll pitch again this season, but with less than a year of service time in the big leagues and one minor league option remaining it’s easy to imagine the lefty being an interesting longer-term piece given his recent success at Triple-A.
The Opener: White Sox, Hill, Pirates
As MLB’s regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. White Sox under new management:
The White Sox spent their day off yesterday shaking up their personnel in the dugout. Manager Pedro Grifol, bench coach Charlie Montoyo, third base coach Eddie Rodriguez and assistant hitting coach Mike Tosar were all fired, and three-time All-Star outfielder Grady Sizemore, who had been serving on the major league coaching staff without a specific title this season, was appointed interim manager. The decision to fire Grifol came just days after the White Sox ended a skid of 21 consecutive losses that is now tied with the 1988 Orioles for the longest losing streak in AL history.
Sizemore and the club are both surely hoping that he can help the team to show some life down the stretch. His first assignment as interim manager will be a two-game set at home against the intracity rival Cubs. Lefty ace Garrett Crochet (3.19 ERA) will be tasked with taking on veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon (3.25 ERA) in tonight’s game, while right-hander Chris Flexen (5.53 ERA) will look to hold down the fort opposite star southpaw Justin Steele (3.33 ERA).
2. Where will Hill land?
44-year-old lefty Rich Hill isn’t done with the big leagues just yet. The veteran is reportedly set to throw for teams later today. It’s not yet clear which teams will be in attendance, although Hill has previously been linked to the Yankees and Dodgers. The southpaw has pitched in 19 big league seasons since being drafted by the Cubs back in 2002, and has long suggested he would be interested in pitching down the stretch and into the playoffs for a contender despite sitting out the first half of the season.
Uncommon as Hill’s plan for the 2024 campaign is, it’s not without merit. After all, Hill pitched to a respectable 4.23 ERA and 4.37 FIP in his first 13 starts with the Pirates last year but saw his numbers balloon down the stretch as he wore down and posted a 6.57 ERA and 5.35 FIP in his final 74 innings of work between Pittsburgh and San Diego. By sitting out the first half of the season, it’s feasible that Hill could contribute numbers akin to his 2023 first half, and that roughly league average production could provide a boost to pitching-needy teams.
3. Pirates roster move incoming:
The Pirates are reportedly set to select the contract of right-hander Domingo German prior to tonight’s game against the Dodgers, which is scheduled for 7:10pm in Los Angeles. A veteran of six MLB seasons, German has pitched to roughly league average results in his career with a 4.41 ERA and 4.50 FIP in 112 appearances (89 starts) for the Yankees since first making his MLB debut back in 2017. While German has shown considerable talent on the field, highlighted by him throwing the 24th perfect game in MLB history last June, he’s also had issues off the field — including a suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy and a restricted list placement last August that cut his 2023 season short as he underwent treatment for alcohol abuse.
Since then, German signed a pair of minor league deals with the Pirates and has made 13 starts with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Indianapolis. The results have left much to be desired, as he’s posted a 5.29 ERA in 68 innings, although it’s worth noting that he has a stronger 4.15 ERA with a 23.9% strikeout rate in his past nine starts. That’s enough for the Pirates to be interested in giving German another shot at the big league level, but they’ll need to make corresponding moves to clear space for the right-hander on both their 40-man and active rosters.
The Opener: deGrom, Ryan, Hays
It’s already been an eventful morning with an early Braves DFA and a major shakeup in Chicago. Here are three more things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:
1. deGrom to face hitters:
Two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom made just six starts in a Rangers uniform last year before undergoing Tommy John surgery, but the 36-year-old hurler is poised to take in major step in his rehab today. Per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, deGrom is scheduled to throw a bullpen session before facing minor league hitters for a 20-pitch simulated inning of work. It’s his first time facing hitters since going under the knife, but Grant suggests that if today’s session goes well the veteran right-hander could begin a rehab assignment in fairly short order. Long regarded as perhaps the best pitcher in all of baseball when healthy enough to take the mound, deGrom has a phenomenal 2.08 ERA, 2.11 FIP, and 35.6% strikeout rate since the start of the 2018 season but has been limited to just 32 starts since the start of the 2021 campaign by a number of injuries.
2. Ryan exits with injury:
Twins right-hander Joe Ryan looked quite good through two innings of work against the Cubs yesterday, striking out two while allowing nothing outside of a solo home run to Chicago rookie Michael Busch. Unfortunately, those two innings would be his only work of the game as he uncorked a high splitter way out of the zone and called to the dugout, exiting shortly thereafter due to what the team later referred to as triceps tightness. After the game, manager Rocco Baldelli spoke to reporters (including Dan Hayes of The Athletic) regarding the issue but provided little in terms of concrete details regarding the injury.
Baldelli suggested that the club would know more about the severity of the issue in a few days, but it was likely that the right-hander would miss “at least some time.” Any absence of any significance would be a frustrating development for a Twins club that has already had its starting pitching depth tested by the losses of Anthony DeSclafani (before the season began) and Chris Paddack (who recently returned to the IL for a second time this season). Louie Varland appears to be the most likely candidate to a step into a rotation role in Ryan’s stead, though the 26-year-old has struggled at both the major and minor league levels this year and seems unlikely to provide production close to what Ryan has offered this year: a 3.60 ERA and 3.44 FIP in 23 starts.
3. Hays to undergo further evaluation:
Newly-acquired Phillies outfielder Austin Hays is just ten games into his tenure with the club but may be headed for the shelf after exiting yesterday’s game with what the club announced as hamstring tightness when he pulled up while running to first base in the third inning. Manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that the club was not yet sure how serious the issue is and that he’ll be evaluated further today.
The addition of Hays, who the club acquired from the Orioles ahead of the deadline in exchange for Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache, added a right-handed bat to the club’s outfield corps who could mix and match with Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas in left and center field. The 28-year-old is hitting a roughly league-average .256/.310/.395 in 73 games between Baltimore and Philadelphia this year, and if he misses time his absence will likely open the door for Weston Wilson to get additional playing time going forward.
Reds Sign Casey Kelly To Minor League Deal
The Reds have signed right-hander Casey Kelly to a minor league deal and assigned him to Triple-A Louisville, per an announcement from Louisville. Kelly, the son of Bats manager Pat Kelly, was released by the Korea Baseball Organization’s LG Twins last month.
Kelly, 34, was once a first-round pick by the Red Sox back in 2008. Included alongside Anthony Rizzo in the trade that brought Adrian Gonzalez to Boston, the righty was a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport prior to his big league debut with the Padres in 2012. Unfortunately, Kelly’s career in stateside ball didn’t take off the way his prospect status might have suggested. He struggled badly in his rookie season with a 6.21 ERA and 4.78 FIP in six starts for the Padres, and wouldn’t resurface in the big leagues until 2015. He struggled in brief cups of coffee for the Padres and Braves before eventually finding some small-sample size success with the Giants in 2018. In San Francisco, the righty pitched to a solid 3.04 ERA with a 4.22 FIP in seven appearances (three starts) that totaled 23 2/3 innings of work.
That performance wasn’t enough to earn him more playing time in the majors, but it did grab attention overseas, and Kelly signed his first contract with the KBO’s LG Twins prior to the 2019 season. Kelly turned in an excellent season in his first year overseas as he posted a sterling 2.55 ERA in 180 1/3 frames across 29 starts despite a strikeout rate of just 16.9%. Kelly remained with the club for more than half a decade and posted excellent numbers as a stalwart of the Twins’ rotation, with a 3.08 ERA in 875 2/3 innings of work entering the 2024 season.
While some reporting indicated that there was stateside interest in Kelly’s services this year, the right-hander remained with the Twins on a one year deal during the offseason. His results took a turn for the worse this year, however, and he surrendered a lackluster 4.51 ERA while striking out just 13.9% of opponents in 19 starts before he was eventually cut loose to make room on the club’s roster for newly-signed righty Elieser Hernandez. That’s opened the door for Kelly to return to stateside ball for the first time since 2018, though he’ll do so with a Reds organization where he faces some stiff competition to make it to the major league level.
Cincinnati is currently deploying a rotation of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Nick Martinez, and Carson Spiers with Jakob Junis in a multi-inning relief role. Of that group, Junis’s 108 ERA+ is the weakest, leaving no obvious weak link to be replaced. An injury or two could open up spots with the big league club, of course, but even then Kelly would have to put himself ahead of not only fellow non-roster veterans like Justus Sheffield but also pieces already on the club’s 40-man roster like Lyon Richardson in order to crack the big league roster. Still, it’s certainly possible to imagine a strong showing from Kelly in the minors down the stretch leading to further interest in his services in affiliated ball headed into the 2025 campaign, even if he doesn’t receive an opportunity in the majors this year.
Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro Discusses Team’s Future
In the midst of a season that has been an unmitigated disappointment for Blue Jays fans where the club has fallen to last place in the AL East and sold off pieces at the trade deadline, club president and CEO Mark Shapiro spoke to reporters including Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson about the club’s plans for 2025 and beyond.
Shapiro did not mince words while describing the organization’s failures this season and acknowledged that the team’s performance this year has represented the “biggest disconnect from expectations” he’s overseen during his tenure at the helm of the club, which began in August of 2015. Even as he called this season the “biggest disappointment” of his time in Toronto, however, Shapiro seemed disinclined to entertain parting ways with GM Ross Atkins. While he prefaced his comments by emphasizing that he does not comment on his employees’ job statuses while the season is ongoing, he also made a general case for continuity within the organization:
“I’m a huge believer in stability and continuity and those are competitive advantages in professional sports,” Shapiro said, as relayed by Matheson. “Reacting and changing don’t necessarily mean improvement. We need to be better. We have to be better. Stability, continuity and making adjustments are where I’m focused right now.”
Parting ways with Atkins, who has been the club’s GM in each of Shapiro’s nine seasons at the helm in Toronto, would certainly be considered a move away from that message of continuity and stability. The Jays have seen some success with the duo of Shapiro and Atkins making decisions, as they’ve made the playoffs in four of their nine seasons with the club. The team only advanced beyond the Wild Card round of the postseason once, however, and that came all the way back in 2016 during their first season with the club.
Since then, the Blue Jays rebuilt and constructed a young core centered around stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette before supplementing that group with veterans such as George Springer and Kevin Gausman. Solid as that strategy may have seemed on paper, however, the results on the field have left something to be desired for a club that has failed to win the competitive AL East even once while going 423-338 since the 2019 season where Guerrero made his MLB debut. Now, both Guerrero and Bichette are entering their final seasons of arbitration eligibility, and the possibility of losing one or both in free agency next winter looms as a distinct possibility.
Of course, it’s possible that Toronto could ink one or both of their stars to an extension before they leave town. Shapiro declined to comment on the possibility of extending specific players, though he did acknowledge that it’s “certainly easier” to build a championship-level roster with players of Guerrero’s and Bichette’s caliber in the fold “for extended periods of time.”
An extension for either player would surely require a considerable financial investment, however. Guerrero in particular has re-established himself as one of the league’s premiere offensive talents this year with a fantastic .317/.391/.537 slash line, 29 doubles, and 22 homers in 112 games this year. With the slugging superstar set to hit free agency following his age-26 season next year, he appears to be in good position to cash in on a significant payday in free agency.
On the other hand, Bichette has dealt with injuries and under-performance this year as he’s been limited to 79 games while slashing just .223/.276/.321. With that being said, he’ll be coming off his age-27 campaign when he’s expected to reach free agency next winter and that combination of youth, a strong offensive track record (he was a career 127 wRC+ hitter entering the 2024 campaign), and his ability to play a premium defensive position should allow the shortstop to do quite well in free agency as long as he rebounds to something closer to his previous career levels in 2025.
Fortunately, the club figures to have plenty of payroll flexibility this winter with which they can look to sign the pair long-term while retooling the rest of the roster. The club’s final payroll is expected to land (per RosterResource) just over $218MM, with their estimated payroll for luxury tax purposes sitting just over $241MM. That’s a little more than $4MM over the first threshold of the competitive balance tax, although it’s worth noting that publicly available payroll estimates are just that. For his part, Shapiro suggested (per Matheson) that the Jays currently expect to come in under that $237MM threshold though he did acknowledge that the situation is “fluid.”
Regardless of where the club ends up in terms of final luxury tax calculations this year, they have plenty of money coming off the books this winter. RosterResource indicates that they have just over $124MM committed for 2025, and while arbitration raises for players like Guerrero and Daulton Varsho figure to push that figure up significantly—the Jays’ 2024 arb class cost the club just over $44MM—even that would leave the club with a payroll in the $170MM range, giving them around $50MM to work with this winter if they match this year’s payroll in 2025. Shapiro was vague about Toronto’s exact plans in terms of payroll for next year, however. While he did say that he doesn’t expect there to be a “large-scale pullback” in payroll, he also notes that the difficult season has impacted the club on the business side of things.
Of course, long-term deals for Bichette and Guerrero wouldn’t necessarily impact 2025’s payroll given that Bichette is already under contract for $17.5MM next year while Guerrero is already expected to command a hefty salary in his final trip through arbitration. That being said, if the Jays have their sights set on retaining either or both of their homegrown duo long-term, it’s easy to see that impacting the club’s willingness to sign other top-of-the-market talents to long-term deals this winter. That could create a complicated puzzle for the club as they attempt to return to contention next year while balancing an apparent desire to retain Guerrero and Bichette long-term against the need for significant upgrades to the current roster.
Cardinals Hoping To Retain Paul Goldschmidt Beyond 2024
In a recent chat with readers, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch discussed the futures of a handful of pending free agents on the Cardinals roster. Most notable among them is seven-time All Star and 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, who Goold noted the club would talk with after the season “about what a return looks like.” Goold went on to compare the situation with Goldschmidt to the one the club experienced with longtime Cardinal Adam Wainwright late in his career, when Goold notes the club allowed him to reach free agency before finalizing a previously agreed-upon deal.
That framing of the situation indicates that there’s a strong mutual interest in Goldschmidt’s stay in St. Louis extending beyond this season. The veteran first baseman, 37 next month, has spent the last six years with the Cardinals after arriving in St. Louis in a trade that brought his tenure with the Diamondbacks to an end one year before he would’ve otherwise been scheduled to reach free agency. While Goldschmidt’s thirties with the Cardinals haven’t been quite as productive as his twenties in Arizona, he’s still be among the games most reliable offensive talents with a .286/.373/.500 slash line (138 wRC+) with St. Louis entering the 2024 campaign.
Given his consistency at the plate and his still-recent MVP campaign in 2022, Goldschmidt entered the 2024 season looking as though he might be one of the offseason’s most attractive offensive talents despite his advanced age. A difficult 2024 campaign has changed that, however, as the veteran has hit just .228/.288/.384 (91 wRC+) in 110 games this season. Age-related decline becomes a concern for most any player as their career advances into their mid-to-late thirties, and for Goldschmidt to have the first below-average offensive season of his career at age 36 surely sets off alarm bells for some interested clubs.
Given Goldschmidt’s struggles this year, it’s easy to see how a reunion could make the most sense for all sides. After all, the Cardinals lack a clear heir to Goldschmidt at first base among their corps of young hitters, which is populated primarily by middle infield and outfield options. Luken Baker is the only first baseman on the 40-man roster controlled for the 2025 season, and the 27-year-old has yet to appear in the big leagues this year after a 33-game cup of coffee in 2023 where he struck out at a 31.3% clip and mustered a wRC+ of just 79. Retaining Goldschmidt would allow the club to keep a respected and decorated veteran who has had success in the recent past in the fold while they sort out long-term options at first base.
Meanwhile, a reunion would offer Goldschmidt a comfortable and familiar place to try and bounce back in 2025 with an organization that has stuck by him as their everyday first baseman even amid his hitting woes this season. It’s also worth noting that there’s some reason for optimism regarding Goldschmidt baked into his more recent performance this season. After an ice cold start to the season where he posted a paltry .530 OPS in 37 games, Goldschmidt has bounced back somewhat with a more respectable .247/.294/.446 in his last 316 trips to the plate. That figure is good for an above average wRC+ of 108.
Setting aside Goldschmidt, Goold goes on to suggest that there’s at least two other pending free agents the Cardinals could explore reunions with this winter: relievers Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge. Of the two, Goold seems to imply that a reunion with Middleton is more likely, adding that there’s “mutual interest” in working out a deal with the 30-year-old who has missed the entire 2024 campaign due to season-ending flexor tendon surgery.
The Cardinals hold a $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout on Middleton’s services for the 2025 campaign, but after the righty missed his first year with the club it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see St. Louis brass decline that option in hopes of re-signing Middleton to a smaller guarantee. The righty posted a 3.38 ERA in 51 games with the White Sox and Yankees last year and was particularly impressive during his time in the Bronx, when he pitched to a 1.88 ERA and struck out 30.4% of opponents. As for Kittredge, the 34-year-old righty has performed solidly in his first season with the club with a 3.12 ERA with a 4.19 FIP in 49 innings of work and will likely be eyeing a raise over the $2.263MM salary he’s earned in his final trip through arbitration this year.