Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as usual.
- Greetings!
- Let's begin
RAGBRAI
- Does Gallen get a QO from AZ and if so does he take it? What would he get on the open market with a respectable ROS?
Steve Adams
- They'll give him a QO. His decision probably hinges somewhat on how he finishes, though I expect him to decline it. Gallen feels like he's going to be the next relatively high-profile starting pitcher/Boras client to sign a two-year deal with an opt-out. If he finishes poorly enough, maybe he accepts or (more surprisingly) doesn't get a QO. But I think if the D-backs saw any real scenario where they wouldn't give him the qualifying offer, he'd have been traded in July.
- Obviously, a major injury changes that calculus, but short of that, I'd be surprised if he doesn't get one.
- If he accepts that, it's not the end of the world. They paid Jordan Montgomery $22MM not to throw a pitch for them in 2025. A similarly priced gamble on a Gallen rebound isn't a terrible bet.
Brad
- How many major league free agent contracts have surplus value? I feel like the percentage is much lower than you think.
Steve Adams
- By definition, very few of them are going to provide surplus value. Free agency is an auction, and most teams tap out of the bidding because they feel the price has exceeded the player's value. On some one-year deals or some mid-range free agent deals, you can find some bargains, but it's only natural for the weightier free-agent deals to come in to provide minimal surplus value -- if any at all.
JM
- Why can a player stay under club control after he's released and granted free agency? For instance (if reports are correct), Nathaniel Lowe is a free agent and will sign today with the Red Sox, after the Nats DFAed and released him upon clearing waivers. But those same reports say the Sox will have a final arb year of club control in 2026 (though likely non-tender him anyway). Once a free agent (after a release or a non-tender), not always a free agent?
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Red Sox Designate Ali Sánchez For Assignment
1:57pm: The Sox have now officially signed Lowe and designated Sanchez for assignment. They also placed outfielder Rob Refsnyder on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to August 15th, due to a left oblique strain and recalled infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton.
1:26pm: The Red Sox will designate catcher Ali Sánchez for assignment today, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. The team has yet to announce the move, but they’ll need roster space for their reported agreement with veteran first baseman Nathaniel Lowe.
Sánchez, 28, appeared in only one game with the Red Sox and was hitless in his lone plate appearance. He was 5-for-21 with a couple doubles as a member of the Blue Jays before landing in Boston via waivers after being designated for assignment. Sánchez has appeared in parts of four major league seasons and suited up for five teams but has just 132 plate appearances in 47 games overall. He’s a .185/.222/.235 hitter in that tiny sample of scattershot playing time.
Unsurprisingly, Sánchez’s work in the upper minors has been far better. He’s played in parts of six Triple-A seasons and carries a .269/.340/.399 slash in 1266 trips to the plate. He’s a better-than-average defender who excels at blocking balls in the dirt and boasts a superlative 39% caught-stealing rate in his 12-year professional career.
Sánchez is out of minor league options, so any team that claims him off waivers will have to plug him right onto the big league roster. Waivers are the Red Sox’ only possible course of action with Sánchez, now that the trade deadline has passed. He’ll be placed on outright or release waivers within the next five days (very likely the former). He’s been outrighted multiple times in his career, so if Sánchez clears waivers, he’d be able to reject a minor league assignment in favor of free agency
White Sox Outright Jacob Amaya
Aug. 18: Amaya went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Charlotte, per James Fegan of Sox Machine.
Aug. 15: The White Sox announced Friday that they’ve designated infielder Jacob Amaya for assignment. His spot on the roster goes to fellow infielder Chase Meidroth, who has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list.
Amaya, 26, has appeared in 37 games for the South Siders this season. He’s played decent middle infield defense, primarily at shortstop, but has mustered an anemic .106/.139/.121 batting line in 73 trips to the plate. He’s out of minor league options, so the Sox didn’t have the ability to simply send him to the minors without first passing him through waivers.
This is the second DFA of the season for Amaya and his third DFA of the calendar year. The Sox passed him through waivers back in May, outrighted him to Triple-A, and then selected him back to the big league roster earlier this month. Amaya has seen time in parts of three big league seasons but struggled at the plate with the Marlins, Astros and ChiSox. He’s a career .147/.183/.161 hitter in 154 major league plate appearances but carries a more respectable .250/.348/.388 line in 1351 Triple-A plate appearances.
The White Sox will place Amaya on waivers within the next five days. If he goes unclaimed, he’ll have the right to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A in favor of free agency.
Athletics Release Gio Urshela
The A’s have released veteran infielder Gio Urshela, whom they designated for assignment on Friday, per the transaction log at MLB.com. He’ll be able to sign with any team once he clears release waivers.
Urshela, 33, signed a one-year, $2.15MM contract in free agency this past offseason. He missed close to a month earlier this season due to a hamstring strain and struggled at the plate both before and after that IL stint. He batted .238/.287/.326 with no home runs, 14 doubles and a triple in 197 turns at the plate. His 20.3% strikeout rate was his highest (by a wide margin) since 2021.
It’s been a tough few years for Urshela, who experienced an out-of-the-blue breakout with the Yankees in his age-27 season back in 2019 and played well up through a strong 2022 showing with the Twins. For four seasons between the Bronx and Minneapolis, he posted a combined .290/.336/.463 batting line (118 wRC+) with 54 home runs, 90 doubles and five triples in 1643 plate appearances.
Urshela was traded from the Twins to the Angels following the 2022 season. He suffered a fractured pelvis a couple months into his Angels tenure, and he hasn’t looked the same since. While he was batting .299/.329/.374 at the time of the injury, he’s taken 658 major league plate appearances between the Tigers, Braves and A’s since returning and has mustered only a .246/.287/.351 slash (77 wRC+). His defensive grades at the hot corner have seen a downturn as well — particularly in 2025. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-6) and Outs Above Average (-2) feel he’s been well below average in just 421 innings of work.
Once Urshela clears release waivers, any team that signs him would only need to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. That sum would be subtracted from what the A’s owe him, but they’ll remain on the hook for the vast majority of what’s left on this year’s salary.
Orioles Notes: Eflin, Bradish, Wells, Mountcastle
The Orioles announced this morning that right-hander Zach Eflin underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy procedure. The season-ending back surgery was announced last week, and this morning’s procedure went as expected, per the team. Eflin is hopeful of having a “normal” offseason after about 12 weeks, but recovery from this type of procedure can take anywhere from four to eight months. Every instance is different, of course, and there’s no real way to tell just how long Eflin will be down until he begins the rehab process.
This was a disaster season for the 31-year-old Eflin, who’s been limited to 14 starts and 71 1/3 innings by a lat strain and this back issue — an injury he revealed has bothered him on and off for several years. He posted a dismal 5.93 ERA when on the field — miles away from the 3.54 mark he posted in 343 innings for the Rays and Orioles during the first two seasons of his current three-year, $40MM contract (2023-24).
Eflin said last week that he was very open to a return to the Orioles. Whether the team pursue that option remains to be seen, but the O’s will clearly be in the market for arms this offseason. Eflin is a free agent, as is righty Tomoyuki Sugano. Fellow right-hander Charlie Morton was traded to the Tigers (and is a free agent at season’s end, too). Grayson Rodriguez won’t pitch this season after undergoing a debridement procedure in his elbow. The O’s have Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Brandon Young all controlled through next year. Righties Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish can hopefully contribute down the stretch after they wrap up their rehab from last year’s UCL procedures, but a return to full health and prior levels of performance can’t simply be assumed.
Bradish, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, is expected to make one final rehab start before he returns from what will end up being about a 14-month absence due to Tommy John surgery. He’s made five minor league starts and pitched to a 4.67 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate in 17 1/3 innings thus far. Wells, who had internal brace surgery around the same time as Bradish had his own operation, has made four rehab starts and pitched 13 innings of 2.03 ERA ball with nearly identical strikeout and walk rates to those of his teammate (28.3%, 7.5%). Bradish is controlled three more years beyond the current season. Wells is controlled for two more years.
Elsewhere on the roster, Ryan Mountcastle is facing some roster uncertainty of his own. The longtime Baltimore first baseman missed more than two months with a hamstring injury, and he returned to a very different roster. The O’s sold off veterans Morton, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto at the trade deadline. Prospects Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo are now getting legitimate auditions to show they can be long-term contributors at Camden Yards.
The presence of both Mayo and Basallo has and will continue to cut into Mountcastle’s playing time. The 28-year-old Mountcastle chatted with Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner about his reduced role, stating that he took it in stride and will be eager to help Mayo or Basallo with any questions or insight they might seek down the stretch. “Whatever they need, whatever I can do to help, I’m willing to do it,” Mountcastle said.
Interim manager Tony Mansolino told Kostka that he’ll try his best to be “creative” and get at-bats for Mayo, Basallo, Mountcastle and catcher Adley Rutschman to the extent possible. Basallo will be backing up Rutschman behind the plate but also factor in at first base and designated hitter — Mountcastle’s two positions.
From a bigger-picture standpoint, it’s increasingly fair to wonder about Mountcastile’s future outlook with the team. He’s eligible for arbitration for the final time this winter and will get a raise north of $7MM. He’ll be a free agent after the 2026 season. The O’s, as previously mentioned, are going to need to invest in the rotation this winter and, in Mayo and Basallo, now have younger pre-arbitration options to step in at first base and DH. It’s easy enough to see Mountcastle being traded or, depending on how he finishes, perhaps even non-tendered.
Mountcastle struggled tremendously prior to landing on the injured list, hitting just .246/.280/.348 in exactly 200 plate appearances before his injury. He’s had limited playing time but looked excellent upon his return. He hit .387/.486/.806 in nine rehab games (31 plate appearances) and, since returning, is 8-for-29 with two homers, a double, a pair of walks and a hit-by-pitch. He’s slashing .276/.333/.517 in his first 33 plate appearances back on the big league roster and has even stolen a pair of bases (despite stealing just three in each of the past two seasons).
So far, anyway, the hamstring looks to be rehabilitated, and Mountcastle looks far better than he did early on. It bears reminding that from 2021-24, Mountcastle was a key factor in a terrific Baltimore lineup, hitting .260/.312/.447 with 86 home runs, 102 doubles and five triples. He’s a right-handed hitter who’s beat up left-handed pitching throughout his career and turned in slightly better-than-average results versus righties. He’s also a sound defensive first baseman. With a 2026 salary likely in the vicinity of $8MM, Mountcastle could be a nice short-term pickup for a team looking for a stopgap option at first base — if the Orioles elect to go with their up-and-coming bats at the position.
Braves Re-Sign Carlos Carrasco To Minor League Deal
The Braves re-signed veteran righty Carlos Carrasco to a minor league contract after designating him for assignment last week, as first indicated on the transaction log at MiLB.com. Carrasco cleared waivers, briefly elected free agency, and now returns on a new minor league where he’ll serve as a depth arm for an injury-plagued Braves staff. Carrasco will head to Triple-A Gwinnett for the time being.
Carrasco opened the season with the Yankees after signing a minor league deal in the winter. He was roughed up for a 5.91 ERA in eight games (six starts) before being removed from the Yankees’ 40-man roster. He stuck around with their Triple-A club until an Atlanta team that was desperate for innings after a series of rotation injuries acquired Carrasco for cash prior to the trade deadline.
The 38-year-old Carrasco tossed a quality start against the Reds on deadline day but was tagged for six runs in 5 2/3 frames his next time out and six more runs in just two innings in his third start with the Braves. He wound up pitching 13 2/3 innings overall and logging a 9.88 ERA during his brief run with Atlanta. Combined with his earlier Yankees struggles, Carrasco has limped to a 7.09 ERA in 45 2/3 innings this season.
Carrasco made 29 solid starts for the 2022 Mets (3.97 ERA, 152 innings) but has now struggled greatly in three consecutive major league seasons. He’s pitched 239 1/3 MLB frames dating back to 2023 but logged only a 6.36 earned run average as his velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate have all trended in the wrong direction.
The Atlanta rotation currently includes Spencer Strider, Erick Fedde, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep and Joey Wentz, although Chris Sale is on the mend and expected to return soon. Sale tossed 56 pitches over four innings of one-run ball in his second Triple-A rehab start yesterday. He’s been out since mid-June due to fractures in his ribcage.
Josh Hader Diagnosed With Shoulder Capsule Sprain, Hopes To Return In Playoffs
TODAY: Hader spoke with MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters today, and essentially ruled out a regular-season return given the amount of time it would take him to rebuild arm strength after a three-week shutdown. The closer is hopeful of being ready to pitch by the postseason.
AUGUST 15: The Astros announced that closer Josh Hader has been diagnosed with a capsule sprain in his left shoulder. He won’t throw for three weeks, and next steps for the star left-hander will be determined at that time. Houston placed Hader on the 15-day injured list earlier this week, though manager Joe Espada had already acknowledged prior to today’s announcement that his closer would miss more than two weeks.
Hader’s IL placement was the first injury of his big league career — and it’s a significant one. The ’Stros haven’t said whether surgery will be a consideration, but capsule repair procedures tend to come with considerable layoffs. Brewers righty Brandon Woodruff recently missed more than a year due to surgery to repair a capsule tear. Hader’s teammate, J.P. France, underwent capsule surgery early last July and only began a minor league rehab assignment on July 21 — more than a year later. He still hasn’t returned to a big league mound. On the other side of the coin, Michael Conforto suffered a capsule tear with the Mets late in the 2017 season and was back in the field the following April. That, however, was in his non-throwing shoulder — and the rehab process for an outfielder versus a pitcher will vary with any arm injury.
Obviously, every injury is different. Diagnoses and treatment plans are handled on a case-by-case basis. It’s not clear yet whether the damage in Hader’s shoulder is as significant as it was for Woodruff, France or any of the numerous pitchers who’ve previously undergone capsule procedures — nor is it even clear whether Hader will require surgical intervention at all. The Astros haven’t said one way or another and probably won’t do so until that reevaluation at the three-week checkpoint. Regardless of whether surgery is deemed necessary, Hader seems ticketed for a notable absence.
Right-hander Bryan Abreu got the first save opportunity in Hader’s absence, though Espada has suggested that he’ll take a committee approach to the ninth inning and make his decisions based on matchups rather than set roles. Lefties Steven Okert, Bennett Sousa and Bryan King could all factor into the ninth inning as well, depending on where the Astros are in the opposing lineup.
Even if Hader manages to avoid surgery, losing him for three weeks — likely a bit longer, if he needs a rehab assignment — is a critical blow at a time when the American League West race has tightened considerably. Houston’s once formidable lead has largely evaporated. The red-hot Mariners recently won seven straight games and have picked up a victory in eight of their past ten contests. That, coupled with a recent 2-8 stretch for Houston, has pulled Seattle within a game and a half of first place.
Notably, the two teams still have a series against one another left on the schedule: a three-game set in Houston from Sept. 19-21. The Astros will obviously hope Hader can somehow be ready to contribute at that point, but that feels optimistic based on the initial diagnosis.
Hader is being paid $19MM in the second season of a five-year, $95MM contract. He’s been exceptional this year, saving 28 games and pitching to a pristine 2.05 ERA with a 36.9% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 52 2/3 innings.
Nationals Request Unconditional Release Waivers On Nathaniel Lowe
TODAY: The Nationals announced that they have requested unconditional release waivers on Lowe.
AUGUST 14: The Nationals announced Thursday that they’ve designated first baseman Nathaniel Lowe for assignment. He’ll be the corresponding move to open an active roster spot for Dylan Crews, whose previously reported reinstatement from the 60-day injured list is now official.
It’s an unexpected end to what’ll go down as a lackluster tenure with the Nats for Lowe, whom Washington acquired from the Rangers over the winter. The Nats sent lefty Robert Garcia to Texas in hopes that Lowe, who came to D.C. with two years of club control remaining, could be a multi-year option providing middle-of-the-order punch to a young lineup. It hasn’t gone as hoped, to say the least.
Lowe, 30, was a steady source of production with the Rangers from 2021-24, hitting .274/.359/.432 (124 wRC+) with 78 home runs — including a career-high 27 round-trippers back in 2022. He hasn’t come anywhere near that level of production with the Nationals. In 490 plate appearances, he’s batted just .216/.292/.373 with a 26.5% strikeout rate that stands as the highest of his career in a full season. Lowe’s 9.6% walk rate is better than average but still the second-lowest of his career and a ways shy of the 11.3% clip he recorded during that four-year peak with the Rangers.
Lowe hit a grand slam yesterday, his first homer since July 19, but that was just his third hit in the month of August despite regular playing time. He hasn’t had a multi-hit game since July 18 and is batting only .167/.271/.294 in his past 36 games (144 plate appearances). The home run yesterday was a big hit but not enough for Lowe to save his job with the Nats.
The Nationals likely explored potential deals for Lowe prior to the trade deadline, but his ongoing slump and fairly hefty $10.3MM salary would’ve served as significant impediments to finding a deal. With the deadline now behind them, the Nats will have no recourse other than to place Lowe on outright waivers or release waivers. At this point, that’s little more than a paper distinction. Lowe crossed five years of major league service time less than a month into the season, meaning he can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency and still retain the remainder of that guarantee as he heads to the open market.
All 29 other teams will have the opportunity to claim Lowe, but in light of his immense struggles, it’s hard to see another team claiming the remaining $2.49MM on his contract. If Lowe passes through waivers unclaimed, he’ll become a free agent who can sign with any team. A new team would only owe him the prorated portion of the league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. The Nationals will remain on the hook for the rest of his salary.
If Lowe can catch on elsewhere and return to form, he’d technically remain under club control with that new team through 2026. However, he’d be due a (small) raise on that $10.3MM salary, so he’d need to make quite the impression in the final few weeks of the season in order to convince a new club that he’s worthy of an $11MM+ expenditure. The Nationals were clearly going to non-tender him — they wouldn’t have made this move if not — and in all likelihood Lowe will be a free agent in search of rebound opportunities this winter.
The Nats have up to five days to place Lowe on waivers. If they wait the maximum amount of time, that guaranteed salary will drop slightly, to about $2.2MM, but it’s still unlikely that another club would claim that sum.
With Lowe out the door in D.C., the Nats can give increased first base reps to a resurgent Josh Bell, which would free up the DH spot to rotate several young players. Alternative options at first bae in the upper minors include Juan Yepez, Yohandy Morales and Trey Lipscomb, though of that trio only Lipscomb is on the 40-man roster — and both Yepez and Morales have struggled in Triple-A.
The Braves’ Bleak Middle Infield Outlook
Not long ago, everything seemed to be working for the Braves. They were a player development factory not only churning out quality big leaguer after quality big leaguer -- but frequently signing those players to long-term extensions. As recently as 2022, Atlanta had nearly an entirely homegrown roster full of stars who'd penned long-term deals. Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider burst onto the scene in '22, and Atlanta had Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr. all signed long-term. Harris and Strider joined the group midway through their rookie seasons.
There were some exceptions. Freddie Freeman had walked in free agency. By the end of the 2022 season, it increasingly seemed as though Swanson and Max Fried would follow suit. They eventually did, but with young infielders like Vaughn Grissom and Nacho Alvarez Jr. impressing in the minors, there was some hope on the horizon.
Much of that core remains in place, but there are far more questions on the roster now. There's no area where that's more true than in the middle infield. With the Braves seemingly facing a budget crunch this past offseason, they made a low-cost addition of defensive standout Nick Allen to hold things down at shortstop while hoping for a rebound from Albies after a pedestrian 2024 showing. It hasn't worked out all that well, particularly at second base, where Albies' struggles have mounted to the point that many fans would prefer to move on entirely -- despite what once appeared a pair of extraordinarily affordable $7MM club options on Albies' 2026 and 2027 seasons.
How will the Braves handle their middle infield situation moving forward? Let's look ahead to the offseason.
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Latest On Twins’ Ownership
The Pohlad family’s stunning about-face on a potential sale of the Twins earlier this week sent shockwaves throughout the fanbase in Minnesota. Executive chair Joe Pohlad announced Wednesday that his family would continue on as the principal owners of the Twins and welcome two new limited partners into the ownership group instead of selling a majority stake in the team.
Additional details have since surfaced. Dan Hayes and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic report that the new incoming minority owners purchased a combined stake that constitutes more than 20% of the franchise. However, there’s no agreed-upon path for the new partners to grow their stake in the team, as we’ve seen in recent ownership shifts with the White Sox and Guardians, where Justin Ishbia and David Blitzer will reportedly increase their stake annually with an eye toward eventually becoming the majority owners. Hayes further reports that the roughly 20% stake of the Twins was sold at a valuation that exceeds Sportico’s recent $1.7 billion valuation of the franchise.
In the aftermath of his announcement, Joe Pohlad sat down with Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune to discuss the change in direction. “I don’t think we could have imagined a better outcome than where we landed,” he told Miller. That comment (unsurprisingly) has been near-universally panned by a fanbase that has been desperate for new ownership for decades, dating back to the late Carl Pohlad’s efforts to sell the team to a group that would’ve moved the Twins to North Carolina and his subsequent efforts to allow his team to be contracted.
The reported $425MM of debt the Twins had accrued has been said to have served as a major impediment in the Pohlads’ exploration of a sale, though Joe Pohlad pushed back on that notion in his chat with Miller, telling him: “As far as I’m aware, that debt was not a hindrance in this process.”
It’s a fairly remarkable claim to make with a straight face, given that the $425MM figure represents one-quarter of the franchise’s estimated $1.7 billion value. The notion that such a substantial figure did not adversely impact the sale process or dissuade potential buyers is difficult to believe. Regardless, Pohlad added that with the influx of the new minority partners, the Twins are “paying that debt down.” Whether that refers to a portion or the total sum isn’t clear.
Pohlad’s additional comment that his front office’s trade deadline fire sale were “truly primarily baseball decisions” has been met with further incredulity. The general expectation for the Twins in the run-up to the deadline was that Minnesota would sell off rental pieces like Chris Paddack, Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe and Ty France.
That quintet was indeed traded, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey also shipped out controllable relievers Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland and Brock Stewart. Most notably, the Twins dumped $70.5MM of the remaining $103.5MM of their franchise-record deal with Carlos Correa on his old Astros club — and did so for virtually no return. Left-hander Matt Mikulski, the pitcher they received from the Astros, was a second-round pick by the Giants in 2021 but is now 26 years old and still in High-A, where he has an 8.00 ERA with more walks than strikeouts. The Giants released Mikulski at the end of spring training this year, and he signed a minor league deal with Houston just two months before he was traded to Minnesota.
It’s true that the Twins did get some quality returns for the players they shipped out. Duran brought lauded catching prospect Eduardo Tait and MLB-ready right-hander Mick Abel. Jax netted Taj Bradley, who isn’t far removed from being one of the game’s top pitching prospects and still has four additional years of club control. Varland netted a big-league-ready outfielder (Alan Roden) and an arrow-up pitching prospect (Kendry Rojas). Following the Twins’ slate of deadline deals, their farm system ranks second in the game at MLB.com and fourth at Baseball America. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked all 97 prospects traded at this year’s deadline, and the Twins collected four of the top 11 names.
That focus on bolstering the farm and slashing payroll only raises questions about the offseason direction, however. In theory, the Twins could turn around, reinvest a significant amount of the payroll they just shed, and aim for a swift return to contention. What seems far likelier is that the teardown will continue, with catcher Ryan Jeffers and right-handers Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober among the most logical names to hit the trade market in the offseason. Pohlad declined to give any sort of indication as to what lies ahead in terms of roster construction, telling Miller only that he’ll sit down with Falvey, GM Jeremy Zoll and others once the current season ends to plot that course.

