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Brewers’ Aaron Civale Requests Trade

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The Brewers moved right-hander Aaron Civale to the bullpen yesterday in order to accommodate the promotion of top prospect Jacob Misiorowski. At the time, skipper Pat Murphy openly acknowledged that Civale — an impending free agent who’s never made a relief appearance in the majors or minors — was “not happy” about the role change. Less than 24 hours later, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that Civale has requested a trade.

Civale’s agent, Jack Toffey, tells Rosenthal and Sammon that the conversation he had with the Brewers baseball operations staff was “very professional” and that Civale would prefer to continue his career as a starter, especially with free agency on the horizon. It’s an understandable position, particularly since Civale has generally been pitching well out of the rotation recently. The 30-year-old righty landed on the injured list due to a hamstring strain after one start this season but has returned with 19 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. He’s fanned 21.3% of his opponents against a 7.5% walk rate in that time and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of those four appearances.

The Brewers bought low on Civale in an early-July trade with the Rays last year. He’d gotten out to a rocky start to the 2024 campaign with Tampa Bay but righted the ship upon his trade to Milwaukee. In 14 starts over the season’s final three months, Civale logged a 3.53 ERA with a 20.9% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. Coupled with this year’s five starts, he’s pitched 96 innings as a Brewer and turned in a 3.84 earned run average with a 20.7% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate — all solid numbers for any team’s fourth or fifth starter.

Civale has generally averaged five innings per start, but that’s due in large part to the Brewers’ own tendency to hook their pitchers quickly. Milwaukee lets pitchers face opponents a third time in a game less often than all but one other team in baseball (Miami), and Civale’s career splits the second and third trip through a batting order are nearly identical; opponents hit him at a .257/.307/.451 clip their second time facing him in a game and .255/.310/.451 the third time. He’s markedly better facing opponents the first time in a game, but that’s true of virtually any starting pitcher. During Civale’s four-plus seasons in Cleveland — the club that originally selected him in the third round of the 2016 draft — he averaged 5 2/3 frames per start and more regularly worked into or completed six innings.

Two months ago, the Brewers having a glut of starting pitching — so much so that one of their veterans requested a trade — would have seemed laughable. Milwaukee was hit hard enough by injuries early in the year that they swung an extremely rare early-April trade to bring in some rotation help, picking up righty Quinn Priester from the Red Sox.

In the nine-plus weeks since that time, Milwaukee has gotten healthier and has seen several young arms emerge — Priester among them. Righty Chad Patrick is one of the front-runners for NL Rookie of the Year honors. Logan Henderson was brilliant in his first four MLB starts but was already optioned back to Triple-A Nashville because of Milwaukee’s depth. Misiorowski’s production in Nashville (2.13 ERA, 31.6 K%) has forced his way into the big league picture. Meanwhile, veterans like Jose Quintana and Civale himself have gotten healthy. Young lefties DL Hall and Aaron Ashby are also back from the IL and are working in multi-inning relief roles. (Hall has also had a pair of three-inning “starts” as an opener ahead of Priester.)

I took a look at the Brewers’ surprising wealth of pitching two weeks ago, noting that some tough decisions were likely on the horizon. Moving Civale to the bullpen falls into that category, particularly since a shift like that can come with precisely this type of ramification. Many fans will find a public trade request off-putting, which is a fair stance to take — just as is the case with Civale’s trade request. As a 2016 draftee, he’s been working nearly a decade to get to free agency and understandably does not love the idea of pitching in a new role that could impact his efficacy on the mound and/or his earning power on the market.

Civale is earning $8MM in 2025, his final year before free agency. As of this writing, there’s about $4.645MM of that sum yet to be paid out. In 122 major league starts, he’s pitched 658 1/3 innings with a 4.06 ERA, a 21.8% strikeout rate, a 6.5% walk rate and a 39.8% ground-ball rate.

Mets Receiving Trade Interest In Paul Blackburn

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With several teams around the league straining to find rotation help, the Mets have been receiving early interest in righty Paul Blackburn, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. There’s no indication a trade is close, but there’s good reason to think the Mets might be amenable to an earlier-than-usual trade involving the veteran righty.

The Mets are currently six-deep in starters, with Blackburn the ostensible odd man out. Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill have all pitched well this season. All five have started at least a dozen games, and none has an ERA higher than Megill’s 3.76. Blacknburn’s most recent outing came in long relief, although Sherman notes that he could get a spot start or two with an upcoming run of 13 games in 13 days.

That said, both Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea are out on minor league rehab stints. The former has made four starts and built up to 76 pitches, while the latter tossed 46 pitches over 2 2/3 innings in his second rehab start two days ago. As such, Montas is the closer of the pair to returning and could even be ready to go next week. He’s slated to make his fifth rehab appearance tomorrow, but there’s still enough time left on his rehab clock that he could make two more starts if the team sees fit. Manaea’s rehab window extends into early July, as he only began his assignment on June 6.

One way or another, within the next two to three weeks, the Mets could find themselves with as many as seven or eight healthy rotation options. All are largely established as big league starting pitchers as well, so it’s not as though they have a young, optional arm to send back to Syracuse for a bit.

Peterson can technically still be optioned, but only for another five days. He’s on the cusp of reaching five years of MLB service time, at which point he’d have to consent to being sent down. It’s a moot point, though, given how well he’s pitching. Megill also has an option, but he’s bounced back from a run of shaky starts in early-to-mid May by rattling off 21 1/3 innings with a 3.80 ERA and 28-to-9 K/BB ratio. His season-long numbers are strong, and a depth-focused Mets front office, helmed by president David Stearns, surely doesn’t want to burn Megill’s final option year at a time when he’s pitching well.

One potential wrinkle that could impact the Mets’ rotation depth unfolded as I was writing that last paragraph: Senga exited today’s game against the Nationals with an injury. The right-hander covered first base on a grounder to the right side of the infield, made a leaping catch to corral the throw, and grabbed at his leg after coming down on the bag (video link via SNY). Senga eventually walked off the field under his own power, but he was down on the field for a couple minutes with the Mets’ training staff.

A lot will hinge on whether Senga is forced to skip a start or head to the injured list. There’s no way to know for the time being. He’s surely just in the very initial stages of evaluation. That situation will be worth watching with a close eye, but so long as he avoids a lengthy trip to the IL, that same scenario of six to eight generally established big league starters vying for five rotation spots will loom as a possibility. The Mets could move to a six-man rotation, of course, though Sherman notes that they prefer not to play one reliever short, as they’d be required to do by rolling out a permanent six-man staff.

If the Mets do end up giving serious thought to trading Blackburn, there’ll be no shortage of interested teams. He’s hardly a front-of-the-rotation piece, but the 31-year-old righty carries a 4.39 ERA, 20.1% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate over his past 299 1/3 major league innings. He’s pitched in 58 games over that stretch, with all but two of them coming out of the rotation.

Blackburn is in his final season of club control. He’s being paid $4.05MM this year, with about $2.35MM of that sum yet to be paid out. He’s a free agent at the end of the season, so the Mets probably won’t get a particularly large return for him, but they could get a nominal prospect or perhaps a lower-end reliever with more team control. On top of that, trading Blackburn would actually save the Mets around $4.94MM, given that they’re deep in the top bracket of luxury tax penalization and thus subject to a 110% tax on every dollar over the top threshold.

MLB Mailbag: Williams, Trade Deadline, Valdez, Keith, Red Sox, Muncy, Jays’ Outfield

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It's time for another installment of our weekly MLB Mailbag. I'm pinch-hitting for Tim Dierkes once more this week before he takes back over next week. In today's mailbag, we'll look at Devin Williams' signature changeup, a group of potential first base targets on the trade market and what they might cost, Framber Valdez's earning power, Colt Keith's role in Detroit, the Red Sox' struggles and Rafael Devers' future, the Dodgers' third base outlook and Toronto's collection of outfielders. Let's dive in.

Elden asks:

I admittedly never followed Devin Williams before the NYY acquired him but isn't it odd to have a closer so heavily reliant on changeups? What is the current timeline to get Weaver back?

It's odd, yes, but when said changeup is arguably the best pitch in baseball since Williams' debut, it's hard to argue with the approach. First, let's look at historical changeup usage by Williams.

Sports Info Solutions began tracking pitch types back in 2002. Since the 2002 season, there have been 6500 individual seasons by relievers with more than 20 innings thrown. Only 20 of them have seen a reliever deploy his changeup at a 50% clip or higher. Williams has five of those. Tommy Kahnle has four of them.

Williams isn't the only reliever to make a career out of a lethal changeup, of course. Trevor Hoffman rode his changeup to the Hall of Fame. Francisco Rodriguez and Fernando Rodney had dominant changeups at their peaks. None threw their changeup even close to as frequently as Williams, however. Broadly speaking, yes, it's quite rare for relievers to be this reliant on changeups. It's rare for relievers to even have a changeup as their go-to secondary offering; fastball/slider combos have been en vogue for years and remain so.

Statcast and its pitch tracking data were rolled out in all 30 MLB parks back in 2015. Since 2015, Williams' "Airbender" unsurprisingly grades out as the best changeup in the sport, but it's also the eighth-most valuable pitch overall. The only individual pitches that carry greater value in that time are (in order): Kenley Jansen's cutter, Josh Hader's sinker, Chad Green's four-seamer (!!), Edwin Diaz's slider, Zack Britton's sinker, Emmanuel Clase's cutter and Liam Hendriks' four-seamer. Of course, it bears mentioning that Jansen, Hader, Green, Hendriks and Diaz have all pitched far more in that decade-long window than Williams, who only debuted in 2019.

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Brewers Move Aaron Civale To Bullpen

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The Brewers plan to move right-hander Aaron Civale from the rotation to the bullpen now that top prospect Jacob Misiorowski has been promoted for his major league debut, manager Pat Murphy tells the team’s beat (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

It’s a tough shift for Civale, a pending free agent who’s been pitching well since returning from a seven-week stay on the injured list due to a hamstring strain. The 29-year-old righty — 30 tomorrow — has tossed 19 innings with a 3.32 ERA and 17-to-6 K/BB ratio since being reinstated on May 22. The results have been solid, though it bears mentioning that Civale hasn’t exactly been efficient. He’s yet to pitch more than 5 1/3 innings in a start and was lifted from his most recent appearance after 80 pitches in 4 2/3 frames.

Even still, Civale’s first appearance in relief with the Brewers will be the first relief outing of his entire professional career. Since being selected by Cleveland in the third round of the 2016 draft, he’s pitched in 86 minor league games and 122 major league contests. Every single one of them has been a start. Between that history as a starter, Civale’s broader track record of big league success and his run of solid results since returning from the injured list, the move surely comes as a surprise to the righty. Murphy conceded that Civale was “not happy” when informed of the decision.

Milwaukee bought low on Civale just under 11 months ago, sending minor league infielder Gregory Barrios to the Rays in an early July swap to acquire him. At the time of the trade, Civale had limped to an ERA north of 5.00, but he righted the ship with the Brewers and pitched to a 3.53 ERA in 14 starts with Milwaukee over the season’s final three months. Between that solid finish to his ’24 season and his first five starts in ’25, Civale touts a 3.84 earned run average with a 20.7% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate in 96 innings as a Brewer.

Civale has averaged only five innings per start, but Milwaukee tends to have quicker hooks on its starting pitchers than most organizations. Only the Marlins have allowed a pitcher to face hitters a third time less often than the Brewers in 2025 — and by a margin of only two batters (243 for Milwaukee to 241 for Miami). Dating back to last year, Milwaukee pitchers have the fourth-fewest instances of facing a batter for a third time within a game. Civale’s career splits the second and third trip through the order are virtually identical: opponents facing him a second time in a game have a .257/.307/.451 slash compared to .255/.310/.451 a third time. (In the Brewers’ and Rays’ defense, those splits were more pronounced in 2024.)

All of that is to say, some frustration from Civale is understandable. Starting games is all he’s known since being drafted, and he’s now being asked to change roles less than three months from free agency at a time when he’s not pitching poorly. However, as I noted when recently looking at Milwaukee’s sudden and surprising glut of starting pitching, some tough decisions were bound to be made.

This certainly falls under that category. The team surely does not take lightly the fact that a move to the bullpen could have real ramifications on Civale’s earning power on the open market, but the alternatives would have been burning Quinn Priester’s final option year (at a time when he’s also pitching well) or optioning Chad Patrick — one of the NL Rookie of the Year frontrunners. Milwaukee could also have kept Misiorowski in Triple-A, but he’s pitched a 2.13 ERA there this season, including a 1.81 mark with a 33.5% strikeout rate over his past nine starts. Command is an issue — he’s walked 10.8% of opponents in that stretch, including nine in his past seven innings — but Misiorowski’s results and ability to miss bats generally seem worthy of a big league look.

Any mention of a veteran player being unhappy with a role change is going to prompt speculation about a trade — particularly when he’s affordable and playing on an expiring contract. Milwaukee would likely have gotten interest in Civale (and teammates Jose Quintana and Freddy Peralta) for those reasons anyhow, however, and there’s no indication that Civale has asked or will ask for a trade — frustration notwithstanding. Given the frequency of pitching injuries and the unconventional manner in which the Brewers tend to deploy their pitching staff, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Civale found himself back in the rotation before long.

Today’s news and his manager’s willingness to concede some frustration on the player’s behalf do perhaps nominally increase the likelihood of an eventual trade. That said, one need only look at the Brewers’ deadline dealings over the years and the current state of their pitching staff to realize that a Civale trade was already a distinct possibility regardless.

Giants, Scott Alexander Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Giants have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran left-handed reliever Scott Alexander, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. The Apex Baseball client will head to Triple-A for the time being.

Alexander, 36 next month, signed a one-year deal with the Rockies over the winter. That pact, which paid him a guaranteed $2MM, didn’t work out for either party. In 16 1/3 innings as a Rockie, Alexander was shredded for a 6.06 earned run average. He allowed 11 runs on 20 hits — four of them homers — and seven walks. He’s never been a big strikeout arm, but Alexander punched out only six of 72 opponents (8.3%) against a 9.7% walk rate. Colorado designated him for assignment on May 23 and released him a few days later.

Ugly as that short run in Denver was, Alexander has a nice track record in the majors overall. He carries a career 3.34 ERA, 17.5% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate in 325 2/3 innings — all accompanied by a gargantuan 66.6% ground-ball rate. As recently as last season, the southpaw tossed 38 2/3 innings of 2.56 ERA ball for the A’s.

Giants fans should be plenty familiar with Alexander, who pitched in San Francisco in 2022-23. He tallied 65 2/3 innings with a 3.70 ERA, a 15.1% strikeout rate, a 4.4% walk rate and a 63.8% grounder rate in his two seasons calling Oracle Park home.

At present, Erik Miller is the only left-hander in manager Bob Melvin’s bullpen. The only other southpaws on the 40-man roster at all are starters Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison, both of whom are currently in the Giants’ excellent rotation. Alexander will join Joey Lucchesi as an experienced non-roster lefty in the Giants’ bullpen with their Triple-A club in Sacramento.

Phillies Designate Carlos Hernández For Assignment

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The Phillies announced Wednesday morning that right-handed reliever Carlos Hernández has been designated for assignment. His spot on the 26-man roster will go to fellow righty Michael Mercado, who’s been recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Mercado was already on the 40-man roster, so the Phils now have one open spot.

Hernández, 28, came to the Phils via waivers back in spring training. The Royals had attempted to pass the flamethrowing, out-of-options righty through waivers and retain him as a depth arm, but Philadelphia claimed the power-armed, 6’4″ righty in hopes of unlocking what’s long looked like some latent potential.

It hasn’t worked out thus far. In 25 2/3 innings out of Rob Thomson’s bullpen, Hernández has been tagged for 15 earned runs on 32 hits and 13 walks. He’s plunked a pair of hitters as well. The resulting 5.26 ERA is an eyesore, Hernández’s once strong strikeout rate has dipped below average; he’s fanned only 18.7% of opponents against a 10.6% walk rate.

Back in 2023, Hernández looked like a breakout arm in Kansas City’s bullpen in the season’s first half. He was averaging better than 99 mph on his fastball and carried a 3.57 ERA, 30% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate into that year’s trade deadline. With the Royals operating as sellers and Hernández performing so well, he even looked like an under-the-radar trade chip for a club that, at the time, didn’t have much to peddle to deadline buyers.

The Royals hung onto Hernández — understandably so; he had four additional seasons of club control remaining — and things went south almost immediately. Hernández served up four runs in his third outing post-deadline, and his season snowballed from there. In 17 innings post-deadline, he was shelled for 20 runs. The strong command he’d displayed evaporated, as he walked more hitters than he struck out in the season’s final two months. Hernández missed about two months the following season due to shoulder troubles. He never required surgery, but his velocity has never returned to his 2023 levels, and his command has never rebounded to the levels we saw in the first two-thirds of the 2023 season.

Now that Hernández has been designated for assignment, the Phillies will either trade him or place him on waivers within the next five days. Waivers themselves are a 48-hour process. Within a week’s time, we’ll know what’s next for the hard-throwing righty.

Mariners’ Bryce Miller Out Four To Six Weeks With Elbow Inflammation

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8:03pm: Booth relays this evening that, according to Mariners GM Justin Hollander, Miller met with elbow specialist Dr. Keith Meister today and received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his ailing elbow. Miller won’t throw for the next two weeks, and Booth suggests that Miller could return to the Mariners in four-to-six weeks.

11:50am: The moves have now been formally announced by the team. Miller has been placed on the 15-day IL, retroactive to June 7, with elbow inflammation. Evans has been recalled from Tacoma and will indeed start tonight’s game.

9:00am: The Mariners are placing righty Bryce Miller back on the 15-day injured list, reports Tim Booth of the Seattle Times. Fellow right-hander Logan Evans will be summoned back from Triple-A Tacoma to make tonight’s start against the D-backs in his place.

Miller was out for most of May due to inflammation in his right elbow. The Mariners hoped a cortisone injection would calm down the pain and allow Miller to reclaim his spot in the rotation, but that clearly didn’t pan out. The 26-year-old Miller made two starts between IL stints and was rocked for eight runs on 11 hits and a pair of walks with only four strikeouts in nine innings. Between that pair of dismal outings and a another pair of clunkers that preceded his original IL stint, Miller has yielded 19 runs over his past 18 frames.

In some respects, Miller has seemed off all season. He posted a solid 3.52 ERA and 24% strikeout rate in his first six starts of the season but did so while walking nearly 15% of his opponents. That’s a huge departure from Miller’s excellent 5.7% walk rate in 2023-24, the first two seasons of his big league career. His average fastball has also dipped this year, falling from 95.2 mph in 2024 to 94.5 mph in 2025. He’s also allowing hard contact and line drives at the highest rates of his career.

From 2023-24, Miller posted a 3.52 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate in 311 2/3 innings, cementing himself among Seattle’s long-term rotation plans in the process. Prior to this year, he’d been as durable as one can hope from a starter in today’s game. Miller skipped a couple starts in 2023 due to a series of blisters on his pitching hand, but this pair of IL placements due to elbow inflammation are the first two IL stints for actual arm injuries in either the big leagues or the minors. He started 31 games in 2024, 29 in 2023 (25 in MLB, four in Triple-A) and 26 in 2022.

There’s no immediate timetable on Miller’s absence. Given the rocky results and the inefficacy of the most recent cortisone injection, it seems fair to expect he could be sidelined for longer than the 19 days he missed on his last IL stint. The team will presumably have more information in the near future — if not when the IL placement is formalized today then in the days ahead.

In the meantime, the 24-year-old Evans will get another look in the big leagues. It’s well earned. A 12th-round senior sign out of Pittsburgh who commanded just a $100K draft bonus in 2023, Evans has quickly proven to be one of the more notable late-round steals in recent memory. He skyrocketed through the Mariners’ system last year and pitched so well that there was talk of a potential call to the big leagues just a year after he was drafted.

That didn’t come to pass, but Evans entered the year considered among the top 10 prospects in an absolutely stacked Mariners farm system and received his first call to the big leagues in late April. He’s since made six starts in the majors and posted a 2.83 ERA in 35 innings. His 17.4% strikeout rate is well below average, but his 6.9% walk rate is strong and his deep six-pitch arsenal gives opposing hitters a variety of average or slightly better offerings to keep in mind while facing him. Both Baseball America and MLB.com tout him as a high-probability fourth starter and note that his 6’4″ frame is that of a prototypical innings eater.

Evans will join Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock in the Seattle rotation for the time being. Woo and Castillo have both been excellent this season. Kirby missed the first eight weeks of the year with shoulder inflammation and stumbled out of the gate but has looked sensational over his past two starts, logging a flat 3.00 ERA with a 17-to-1 K/BB ratio in 12 innings. Hancock has made nine very good starts (combined 3.26 ERA in 49 2/3 innings) and two terrible starts (combined 13 runs in 5 2/3 innings), balancing out to a lackluster 5.04 ERA.

Logan Gilbert, arguably the Mariners’ top starter, has been on the shelf since late April due to a flexor strain but is expected back soon. He’s made two rehab appearances already and is scheduled to make a third — and, per Booth, perhaps final — rehab start for Tacoma tonight.

Mets Sign Travis Jankowski To Minor League Deal

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The Mets signed veteran outfielder — and former Met — Travis Jankowski to a minor league deal, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. The Excel Sports client will head to Triple-A Syracuse for the time being.

Jankowski was placed on waivers by the Rays earlier this month. He went unclaimed and elected free agency, as is his right as a player with more than more than three years of service (more than eight, in Jankowski’s case). His time with Tampa Bay, during which he batted .244/.286/.289 in 49 plate appearances, gives him at least some level of big league action in 11 consecutive seasons.

Though he crossed eight years of MLB service during that Rays stint, Jankowski has never been a regular in the majors. He played a career-high 131 games with the 2016 Padres but did so in a limited, part-time role (383 plate appearances). He’s never topped the 387 plate appearances he logged with the 2018 Padres and has a total of 805 plate appearances over the past seven MLB seasons.

Jankowski is a career .236/.318/.305 hitter. He has negligible power and a league-average strikeout rate but draws plenty of walks, runs well and can play solid defense at all three outfield positions. He’s a nice fourth or fifth outfielder who’ll head to Triple-A and see if an opportunity opens up with the Mets’ big league squad, where Brandon Nimmo, Tyrone Taylor and Juan Soto are currently the main outfield options.

Both Jared Young and Starling Marte can technically play in the outfield, but they have four combined appearances on the grass this season. Outfielders Jose Siri and Jesse Winker are currently on the injured list (although the latter has primarily been a designated hitter). Jeff McNeil is effectively the Mets’ fourth outfielder at the moment. He’s logged 96 innings in the outfield, including 49 in center.

Jankowski was with the Mets back in 2022 but went just 9-for-44, with all nine of those hits being singles. That came out to a .167/.286/.167 batting line, but he could find himself with the opportunity to make a more lasting impression this time around, should the Mets incur an outfield injury or opt to move McNeil back to second base on a full-time basis.

Orioles Designate Emmanuel Rivera For Assignment, Option Heston Kjerstad

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The Orioles announced a number of roster moves today. Outfielder Cedric Mullins and infielder Jordan Westburg have both been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. In corresponding moves, the club has optioned outfielder Heston Kjerstad and designated infielder Emmanuel Rivera for assignment. The O’s also announced that outfielder Jordyn Adams, who was designated for assignment last week, has been sent outright to Triple-A Norfolk. The 40-man roster count drops to 38.

Kjerstad, 26, was the No. 2 overall pick back in 2020, though that selection represented a bit of draft-day creativity; he was generally viewed as a mid-first-round talent but signed with the O’s on an underslot deal at No. 2 overall, leaving Baltimore some extra money to pursue over-slot bonuses with others further down the line — the aforementioned Westburg and top prospect Coby Mayo among them.

The Orioles have given Kjerstad looks in each of the past three seasons now, but the 2025 campaign is the first where he’s been given a real run at anything close to regular playing time. It didn’t go well. Despite being largely shielded from left-handed pitching, the lefty-swinging Kjerstad hit just .192/.240/.327 with four homers, a 3.6% walk rate and a 26.9% strikeout rate in 167 turns at the plate. He’s improved his overall contact rate relative to 2023-24, but he’s chasing off the plate at borderline egregious levels (38.4% chase rate) and still swinging through pitches too often.

Kjerstad finds himself at something of a crossroads with the Orioles. He’ll still have one more minor league option remaining beyond the current season, but he’s now struggled to establish himself in three separate seasons. Colton Cowser is locked into one outfield spot long-term. Tyler O’Neill has an opt-out clause in his three-year contract that he does not presently appear likely to take (although a big finish to the season can always change that). Mullins is a free agent at season’s end, as is Ryan O’Hearn, which could open some outfield/designated hitter playing time. However, the O’s have prospects like Enrique Bradfield Jr., Jud Fabian, Vance Honeycutt and Dylan Beavers rising through the system — any of whom could also factor into those competitions for playing time.

It’s arguable that Kjerstad hasn’t really gotten a fair audition. He’s totaled 314 MLB plate appearances across three seasons and always been either platooned or had the specter of someone returning from the IL to take his spot and push him back to Triple-A Norfolk.

Other clubs might have given him a more traditional everyday opportunity, but the Orioles tend to prioritize matchups more than most and have frequently brought in veteran outfielders who’ve cut into Kjerstad’s potential playing time (e.g. O’Neill, Ramon Laureano, Dylan Carlson, Eloy Jimenez, Austin Slater). They make no secret about their endeavors to stockpile as much depth as possible, which positions them well for injuries but also results in scattershot opportunities for young players like Kjerstad, Mayo and since-traded prospects like Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby and Joey Ortiz.

For now, Kjerstad will head to Norfolk and look to get his swing back on track. However, he has little left to prove against Triple-A pitching. Kjerstad has played 132 games there, taken 591 plate appearances, and mashed at a .299/.382/.541 clip.

As for Rivera, he originally came to the O’s as one of those previously mentioned depth grabs. Baltimore claimed him off waivers last August, enjoyed a productive run of 27 games down the stretch, and tendered him a $1MM contract over the winter. Rivera never seemed likely to replicate the .364 average on balls in play or 22.2% homer-to-fly-ball ratio he logged with the O’s in 2024, however, and his offense has plummeted back down to his career norms in 2025. He’s taken 76 plate appearances and batted .232/.303/.275 — not far off his lifetime .243/.306/.363 slash in the majors.

The 28-year-old Rivera’s hard-contact numbers completely eroded this season. He’s a surehanded defender at the hot corner and has also played some first base in the majors. However, he’s out of minor league options, so the O’s couldn’t simply send him down. He’ll first need to clear waivers. Given his lack of track record and options, he could well pass through unclaimed, though he’s affordable enough that a team seeking short-term help at the hot corner could look to him as a stopgap between now and the trade deadline.

MLB rules stipulate that a player can be in DFA limbo for a maximum of one week, and waivers are a 48-hour process, so Rivera will be traded or placed on waivers within the next five days. If he clears, he’ll presumably accept a minor league assignment, as he did when the O’s passed him through waivers earlier this spring. Rejecting in favor of free agency would mean forfeiting the remainder of his $1MM guarantee, as Rivera does not have the five years of service needed to reject an outright assignment and retain his guaranteed salary.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good afternoon! Sorry to not open this up for early questions or preview it in this morning’s Opener. We’re all working on slightly different schedules today with Anthony off for a few days — and today, in particular, with Darragh and me recording the podcast this morning — so I wasn’t sure exactly when it’d get underway! We’ll start a bit early and go for an hour or a bit more, as usual.

Guards Ball

  • What is the guardians plan at the deadline? Buy, sell some rentals or even controllable relievers, or stand pat?

Steve Adams

  • This is a boring part one of the answer, but it’s emblematic of modern baseball in a three Wild Card era: they won’t make that final call anytime soon. Most teams don’t pick a lane until there’s less than a week until the deadline. Cleveland is certainly a team that tends to wait. They’re only a game back in the Wild Card standings, so I don’t think they’re going to engineer a huge sale, barring a total collapse. I could see them listening on Carlos Santana regardless, since they could just plug Manzardo in at 1B.
  • I expect that they’ll be open to various situations that’d net them controllable outfielders or starting pitching options. The rotation depth there is not what it once was, and the gears at their pitching factor have slowed a bit recently — in part due to injuries.

Chris Young

  • I’m thinking of trading Adolis Garcia and Tyler Mahle to the Braves for Marcell Ozuna and Spencer Strider: What are your thoughts on my trade proposal?

Steve Adams

  • Cannot fathom the Braves giving up Strider in that deal
  • Or in general

Luis Rengifo

  • Do I have trade value at all?

Steve Adams

  • Sure. The contact skills are still good, and he’s hitting plenty of line drives. Overall quality of contact profile is poor, but he’s never been someone who hits the ball super hard with consistency even when he’s been at his best.

    I don’t think Rengifo’s going to fetch the Angels any kind of significant prospect haul, but they’re not going to make him a QO, he’s a free agent at season’s end, and the Angels aren’t going anywhere this season, so I fully expect him to be moved. It’ll probably be a modest return, but that’s not a bad thing. They got Ryan Zeferjahn in that type of return, and he’s a genuinely interesting bullpen piece for them now

Dave Dombrowski

  • will I be in the market for a player like jarren duran?

Steve Adams

  • I imagine two-thirds of the league will ask the Red Sox about Jarren Duran. And Wilyer Abreu. And probably Ceddanne Rafaela, too.

    The Red Sox have a lot of good outfielders, especially with Roman Anthony up.

    Duran’s going to cost something significant and something close to MLB ready. For the Phillies, maybe Mick Abel-plus. That sort of thing. (With the “plus” also being quite significant … not like, Abel plus some 18-year-old lotto tickets)

Judgement

  • Aaron judge.

Steve Adams

  • Hear he’s P good at this baseball thing, yes.

KC42

  • Still confused on the Braves decision to DFA Kimbrel after one inning when they still run out Montero on a daily basis. Kinda a slap in the face to an Icon to not even let him throw at Truist. AA has been questionable since the WS run.

Steve Adams

  • Braves fans don’t like to hear it, but the World Series run was kind of just Anthopoulos throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall and all of it somehow simultaneously sticking. Even he probably has to be in shock about how well all of those moves worked out.

    I agree to an extent that he’s done a lot of weird things since. There have been a lot of great moves. Sale/Grissom is one of the best trades in recent memory. Risky, sure, but great self-evaluation of Grissom and a well-timed move since he lost all trade value quickly thereafter. Paying a ton of money to buy low on Kelenic? Like $30MMish once you factor in luxury taxes… less so. Paying nearly $3MM to rent Rafael Montero was wild.

  • That’s the reason they’re keeping Montero over Kimbrel, though. They took on a notable chunk of his salary, while Kimbrel just got his prorated base for a day.

    Kimbrel’s minor league numbers look nice, but his velo is now below average and the command hasn’t been great even in AAA.

Joshua

  • Would Michael Soroka be a sneaky good trade candidate for a variety of contending teams? His era through 5 innings during his starts is just over 3.00, he has experience as a reliver and has excelled there, and is a FA to be so there is no long term money attached to him.

Steve Adams

  • Yeah. I don’t like Soroka as a starter but I loved him as a reliever in the offseason and thought he could’ve cashed in on a nice two-year deal that way. He almost certainly could have, I should say, but clear he wanted to start and that was going to limit his earning more. If it keeps going well, maybe gets the nice multi-year this winter.

    Teams might be wary of trading for a guy who prioritized starting as a free agent, and then immediately plugging him into a bullpen, but Soroka had to know that was a strong possibility when he signed on with the Nats. And he’s a professional who’d be getting a chance to chase a ring, so I’m sure it’d be fine.

    Broadly — yes, go get Soroka. Put him in the ’pen. He was really impressive as a reliever last year and I still think that’s his best role.

  • To the point you made, it’s not just that his results dip after five innings. He destroys opponents the firs time through the order and immediately turns into a pumpkin
  • .148/.175/.262 first time through a lineup
    .263/.311/.509 second time through
    .400/.483/.680 third time through
  • (2025 only there, I should clarify)

Steve

  • Are the TWINS still up for sale?

Steve Adams

John

  • Denzel Clarke. Enough said

Steve Adams

  • Guy is like peak “Superman” Pillar levels of fun to watch in the outfield

Seb

  • Do you believe the A’s will be selling or buying at the trade deadline?

Steve Adams

  • Selling short-term pieces, open to adding big leaguers who can be controlled several more years.

Astros fan

  • Why did this site go down for a week

Steve Adams

  • That… has never happened? Not sure what issue you ran into. Email through our contact form if you’re having some sort of problem

Joe

  • Adrian Houser for Nick Frasso. Who says no?

Steve Adams

  • If the Dodgers wanted Houser they could’ve just signed him for like a $2MM base

Front Row

  • Any guesses about a Hader to the Padres type deal at this year’s deadline. An impact player traded away by a contending team?

Steve Adams

  • Yandy/Brandon Lowe/Fairbanks from the Rays
    Peralta from the Brewers
    Clase from the Guardians, I suppose, but I think that’s more a fantasy that fans of other teams have than something Cleveland will do … but there will probably be a few rumors to that effect even if there’s minimal fire backing said smoke

Aaron,esq

  • Does Chris Sale get traded?

Steve Adams

  • We talked about this on the podcast we recorded this morning (cheap plug!).

    I tend to think ATL will go into the deadline with the mindset of “We’re keeping him. We’re trying to win in 2026,” but offers will escalate to the point where they have to give real thought to it — kind of similar to the Twins with Jose Berrios several years back.

    If he’s healthy, I can definitely see a team making the Braves bite the bullet.

    Again, it’s boring to say “it’s too early to definitively say yes or no right now,” but that’s the reality. For the time being, yes, I find it eminently plausible even though the Braves would tell you right now “We’re not thinking like that.”

BC

  • Do IKF and Bednar have much value? Should I trade them?

Steve Adams

  • Not a ton for IKF, but a contending team will at least want him for a utility role. Or his old pals in the Bronx could use a second baseman!

    Bednar has looked great since his recall from Triple-A … 30-to-3 K/BB ratio in 20 2/3 innings, 2.61 ERA, sub-2.00 FIP and SIERA.

    Every contending team should want Bednar, and his stock is trending way up again.

Aaron

  • Is Stanton coming back this week?

Steve Adams

  • If not this week, probably next. He’s on a rehab assignment starting today. Of course, given his injury history, we can’t just assume he gets through it setback-free

Earl Scheib

  • Do you think this absolutely horrible season forces Colorado’s ownership to consider selling or at least completely replacing the front office? I can still see envision Dick Monfort rationalizing the whole thing away.

Steve Adams

  • I have long since given up assuming that anything will snap Dick Monfort back to reality.

Brewers 3B/SS

  • Will Bo Bichette be available at the deadline?  If so, what package could the Brewers put together that would be fair for the rental?

Steve Adams

  • I doubt Bichette’s available. The Jays are firmly in playoff contention right now, and even if they’re several games back of a spot, they have a front office/GM that probably feels like turnover is coming if the team doesn’t win.

    You could maybe get more than the value of a potential QO by trading Bichette, but you’d really punch a hole in your 2025 chances. Unless the Jays are like 10 back of a playoff spot, I think he’s staying.

  • Brewers wouldn’t be a good fit anyway, unless Toronto is eating like all of the salary.

Martras

  • I’ve seen an increasing expectation the Twins might look to acquire more starting pitching at the deadline, but I don’t see it. By the time the deadline rolls back around, Lopez should be close to returning and #5ish rotation depth is still strong for the Twins. I don’t see any appetite for their ownership to spend, either. What is your take?

Steve Adams

  • Generally agree. If they have more injuries or if Lopez/Matthews are going to be out awhile past the deadline, I could see them going after a Heaney or someone, just to avoid a situation like they had last year where they’re trying to stay afloat in a playoff race but running out three rookie starters (Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews). But if they think they’re 2-4 weeks out from a Lopez return, if Zebby’s back by then and if the rest of the staff is healthy, I don’t know that they’ll be making aggressive pushes for SP help.

    Lots of “ifs” there, though.

AJ Preller

  • What will I have to give up to get Ramon Laureano? Can I pry him away mid June without a overpay?

Steve Adams

  • I just wouldn’t target/prioritize Laureano. He has decent numbers in a small sample this year, but the recent track record is bad, his K’s are up there, the defense isn’t what it once was and he’s not even hitting lefties well — he’s just BABIP’ing hard against righties (with some unexpected right-on-right pop). In general, I’d aim higher.

    But, as you’d expect after seeing me rattle off that glowing review — I don’t think the cost of acquisition would be all that high, no. Haha.

Wook

  • Brady House…July 1st call up?

Steve Adams

  • Anytime at this point wouldn’t surprise me too much.

Christian Walker

  • Am I living up to my contract even though negative war?  Is negative war for first baseman the new norm?

Steve Adams

  • I feel like it should go without saying that hitting .207/.269/.350 is decidedly not living up to a $20MM salary. K’s and chase way up, walks and power down. Not a great combo, but he’s still hitting the ball hard when he makes contact and still plays a good 1B defensively

JimmyKrakKorn

  • Is Clase The starting centre fielder in Toronto next year and Varsho moves to Left. We will need a lead off hitter when Bo Bichett moves to the Dodgers

Steve Adams

  • I don’t think Clase can/will hit, and even if he did, I’m not taking Varsho out of CF for him (or almost anyone else). Let him play LF and keep Varsho in center.

Dana Brown

  • A lot of buzz around Miguel Ullola. He isn’t listed in top 100 prospects but could he be a center piece in a trade for a top line SP or bat?

Steve Adams

  • I assume you’re talking locally in Houston? Ullola’s having a nice season in terms of his ERA and strikeout rate, but he’s walking almost 15% of his opponents in Triple-A. I don’t think he’s a centerpiece for a substantial deadline upgrade. But hey, only takes one team that loves him and thinks they can make some tweaks to bump his command a grade or two.

Redneck Rampage

  • Is Misiorowski coming up to Milwaukee a precursor to a Brewer trade? There’s a whole lot of pitchers up there even without Woodruff.

Steve Adams

  • Doubt it. The Brewers just view their Triple-A arms as an extension of the big league rotation. They had Quinn Priester lined up but have been getting good use of him as a bulk arm following openers with good success.

    They’re going to get innings for all of Misiorowski, Henderson, Patrick, Priester, etc. down the stretch. I expect that they’ll trade some starting pitching at the deadline, even if they’re contending (Civale/Quintana most likely, but they’ll get big offers on Peralta) and maybe narrow the group thusly post-deadline.

Friars

  • Have the Padres considered trading for Harrison Bader?

Steve Adams

  • The Twins are five over .500, +37 run differential and currently hold a Wild Card spot.

Binky

  • So when a player gets DFA’d what’s the benefit to the player in choosing FA and 1 minute later resigning a minor league deal vs instead of just accepting AAA right from thr get go.

Steve Adams

  • New opt-out language, different salary terms, the brief ability to see if anyone else will put you directly on a MLB roster elsewhere.

Defense wins Championships

  • Kimbrel makes sense for the Angels, right?

Steve Adams

  • Kimbrel feels like a very Angels move, if only because they love rolling the dice on former stars.

    Any team seeking bullpen depth (which is most of them) could sign Kimbrel — Braves included.

jed hoyer

  • Does a team take a chance on half a season of Julio Urias?

Steve Adams

  • Nope

Vladdy Jr

  • Is it possible that I’m just not a slugger?  Yes I hit the ball hard, but I can’t seem to get the launch angle for homers on the regular.  And how bad does my 500 million contract look if I’m good for only 25-30 home runs a year?

Steve Adams

  • Vlad hit .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers last year. If he’s “just” a 25-30 HR bat with those kinds of rate stats, they’ll be fine.

@Tayyyburrr

  • Does Julio Urias, Bauer or Wander ever play in MLB again?

Steve Adams

  • Nope

BB-STC

  • Assuming that he won’t be traded this year, what does Paddack’s next contract look like?

Steve Adams

  • Good command, sub-par K% and SwStr%. Average-ish velo. Two TJs under his belt. I’d have a hard time seeing anything past Taillon’s 4/68, and I’d probably take the under in years and AAV. Something in Eflin’s 3/40 range, perhaps?

Sad Reds Fan

  • Hunter Greene would be a Cy Young candidate if he could stay healthy and that makes me sad

Steve Adams

  • I have no great feedback other than to say, yes he would, and that’s understandable.

Kyle

  • After 3000Ks, is Clayton Kershaw unanimous HOF’er? Or will some writer hold playoffs against him

Steve Adams

  • I never expect anyone to get in unanimously, because some caveman writer will leave his ballot blank or like, only vote for one guy or something stupid. And then never own up to it.

    But it doesn’t matter. Kershaw’s a slam-dunk first ballot HOF

Kyle

  • Do you think the players will want to address in the next CBO the problem of clearly Ready prospects being held down until the summer to avoid them winning a full year via ROY?

Steve Adams

  • That wrinkle in and of itself is a product of the ROY rules which were designed to prevent Kris Bryant/Vlad Jr. situations where teams hold players down for 15 days to buy a whole year of service.

    This next iteration of service manipulation wasn’t hard to foresee. We were writing about how teams in situations like the O’s at the time could hold Rutschman (then a prospect) down until July or August even when they’re ready on Opening Day or mid-May for just this purpose.

    Maybe they’ll try to address this, sure, but clubs will find another way to try to game the system then. It’s only natural.

Thinking Cap

  • Any reason why Brendan Rodgers is still with the Astros & hasn’t been DFA’d? Highest K% of his career by far!

Steve Adams

  • I don’t really get what they’re doing there. He has 28 PA in the past month. He’s not hitting on the rare occasions they do use him. It’s not quite Austin Wynns/Reds level of non-usage, but it’s not far off. At a certain point — and I’d say we’re there — move on and make better use of the roster spot.

Josh Elliott

  • I watched most of a Guardians game about a week or so ago.  3 questions.  Is Angel Martinez available?  Can he play LF?  Would the Padres be able to get him without giving up Salas/De Vries?  Thank you!

Steve Adams

  • I assume you must’ve caught a good Martinez game, but there haven’t been many of them. He has a .257 OBP and the ninth-highest chase rate on balls off the plate among the 239 MLB hitters with 150+ PAs this year. That’s not the sort of upgrade I’m targeting. I’m surprised the Guardians are sticking with him.

Carl

  • Speaking of Kimbrel, he is a hall of famer?

Steve Adams

  • 440 saves, career 39 K% — I expect he’ll get in.

Backstops

  • How would you rank the following young catchers in projected career value: Henry Davis, Hunter Goodman, Alejandro Kirk, Logan O’Hoppe

Steve Adams

  • In the reverse order you listed them

Red Sox fan

  • Does Salas and De Vries get Duran

Steve Adams

  • Padres aren’t doing that
  • (But, yes, if the Padres actually offered that, I imagine the Red Sox would say “Um… ok?”)

Harry Ford

  • What tier of player could I return the Mariners if they put me on the block?

Steve Adams

  • He’s basically an MLB-ready, 55- or 60-FV catching prospect. He could rightly be the return for the overwhelming majority of players available at this year’s deadline.

    Jerry Dipoto also just unleashed a lengthy and largely unprompted ode to how much the org loves Harry Ford and how they think both he and Raleigh can coexist on the same roster long-term, so while I doubt he’s expressly untouchable, I also don’t think it’s necessarily likely that he’s traded.

Kyle

  • If the Pirates do trade Skenes, even if next year, is the return even bigger than Soto’s? Assuming health stays of course

Steve Adams

  • They won’t this year, but yes, it would be a larger return than Soto either this year or next.

J2F

  • Looks like Mil just promoted Misiorowski. Once Chandler gets the call, which one would you prefer for fantasy purposes?

Steve Adams

  • Chandler because the Pirates will keep him up. The Brewers will keep shuttling guys up and down all year as the situation necessitates. Need some length in the bullpen because Misiorowski went 5 innings but the game ran into the 11th? Misiorowski is going to get optioned.
  • Also, Chandler’s just the more highly regarded prospect. But the roster machinations in Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh make it an easier call even if you think Chandler is overrated and/or Misiorowski is underrated.

Claude Hopper

  • What constitutes an acceptable return for Freddy Peralta? They would need a starting corner infielder and a top 5 organizational prospect IMO, especially considering Freddy’s salary.

Steve Adams

  • I would agree with something along those lines, yeah. “top 5 organizational prospect” feels too nebulous. The Mariners’ No. 5 prospect and the Angels’ No. 5 prospect are wildly different things.

    Two clear-cut 50 FV or better prospects (basically top-100 guys), or one plug-and-play young infielder and a 50 FV prospect seems like a good starting point.

baseball gods laugh and laugh

  • Who wouldn’t Salas and De Vries get?

Steve Adams

  • I mean the two of them on their own might not get Skenes. And the Yankees or Mariners aren’t tanking their contending seasons by trading Judge or Raleigh in order to get two teenagers
  • But generally, yes, trading Salas+De Vries is a good recipe to get 99% of the league haha

LFGM

  • What do you see the Mets doing at the deadline? I look and I see a pretty complete team, but definitely need a BP arm

Steve Adams

  • Yeah, every contender is always in the mix for more bullpen help. Mets could use a lefty, in particular.

Seebs

  • What did they used to call and oblique injury? Between that and hamate bones it’s like players and trainers are inventing new maladies.  I’m old fashioned – give me hedge trimmer or coolers of deer meat injuries

Steve Adams

  • Haha, I’ve been working MLBTR since not terribly long after the days of Clint Barmes’ trip to the 15-day venison list, and I remember oblique and hamate injuries even back then.
  • Back in the 60s-70s, they probably called oblique injuries “big deal, your side hurts, play through it” and then released the guy after the season because his numbers tanked
  • Alrighty, I’ve got to call it this week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve if you have more questions.

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