Braves Promote Spencer Strider
The Braves are set to promote right-handed pitching prospect Spencer Strider to the Majors this weekend, as first reported by Eric Cole of Talking Chop. He’ll work out of the Atlanta bullpen and give the Braves a highly intriguing postseason option. More specifically, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets that he’ll be added to the big league roster today.
It’s the culmination of a remarkable, meteoric rise through the Braves’ farm system. Strider, 22, was selected in the fourth round of the 2020 draft and barely pitched in 2020 due to the NCAA shutdown and the canceled minor league season. He opened the 2021 season with the Braves’ Low-A affiliate but has skyrocketed to the Majors with outrageous strikeout numbers across four different minor league affiliates. The Clemson product pitched to a 0.59 ERA in Low-A, a 2.45 ERA in Class-A Advanced, a 4.71 ERA in Double-A and recently struck out the side in his Triple-A debut.
While the combined 3.64 ERA doesn’t necessarily jump out, Strider’s power arsenal certainly does. He’s punched out 153 batters in 94 innings this season — 39.3 percent of the 389 hitters he’s faced overall. David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that Strider’s fastball was up to 101 mph in his recent Triple-A debut.
In the long run, the Braves will likely give Strider the opportunity to continue developing as a starting pitcher. That Triple-A debut this week was the lone relief appearance of the season, as all 21 of his other outings have been starts. That said, Baseball America noted when listing Strider sixth among Atlanta farmhands on their midseason rankings that because of his Tommy John surgery in college, a relatively slight size (six feet tall) and below-average command, he may ultimately settle in as a power reliever anyhow.
For now, Strider gives Braves fans even more to be excited for over the final weekend and gives manager Brian Snitker a potential relief weapon that postseason opponents won’t have had a first-hand look at. He’ll technically require commissioner approval to be added to the postseason roster as an injury replacement, because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster on Sept. 1. However, such replacements are reasonably common, and it seems unlikely the Braves would’ve called Strider up for the final three games if they weren’t at least contemplating him as an option for the looming NLDS.
White Sox Designate Mike Wright For Assignment
The White Sox announced Friday that they’ve reinstated righty Ryan Tepera from the injured list. Fellow right-hander Mike Wright was designated for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster.
Wright, 31, signed a minor league deal with Chicago over the winter and pitched to a 5.50 ERA with 11 strikeouts and 11 walks in 18 frames over 13 appearances in the past six weeks. He’s spent the bulk of the season with the White Sox’ top affiliate in Charlotte, where he had a more impressive 3.40 ERA with a 23 percent strikeout rate, a 7.4 percent walk rate and a 47.7 percent grounder rate in 95 1/3 frames.
A third-round draft pick by the Orioles back in 2011, Wright spent parts of five seasons pitching in Baltimore but was never able to establish himself there. He headed overseas to the Korea Baseball Organization for the 2020 campaign and logged 157 2/3 innings of 4.68 ERA ball in the rotation for the KBO-champion NC Dinos.
All told, Wright carries a career 5.97 ERA in 276 big league innings but a much sharper 3.70 mark in 543 career innings at the Triple-A level. The White Sox will place Wright on outright waivers or release him in the coming days. Players with three or more years of Major League service time, which Wright has, who are outrighted off a 40-man roster become free agents at season’s end anyhow, so Wright will soon be back on the open market one way or another.
A’s Select Pete Kozma
The Athletics have placed infielder Vimael Machin on the injured list and selected the contract of veteran infielder Pete Kozma from Triple-A Las Vegas, per a club announcement. Oakland didn’t provide an injury designation for Machin, which suggests he’s been placed on the Covid-19-related injured list. He won’t count against the 40-man roster while on that list.
Kozma, 33, will be returning to the big leagues for the first time since 2018. He’s logged 113 games with the A’s top affiliate in 2021 and posted a .244/.307/.337 batting line in 500 trips to the plate.
Offense has never been a strong point for Kozma, a defensive standout with the Cardinals from 2011-15. Kozma was the everyday shortstop in St. Louis in 2013, when the Cardinals made it to Game 6 of the World Series before falling to the Red Sox. Outside of that season, however, Kozma has been primarily used as a bench piece or an up-and-down depth option. He’s only topped 100 plate appearances twice in his career: 2013 (448 plate appearances) and 2015 (111).
It’ll likely be a short stay on Oakland’s 40-man roster for the veteran Kozma, but the A’s are in need of some infield help with Machin on the injured list and with primary shortstop Elvis Andrus sustaining a fractured fibula that required surgery. He can handle any of shortstop, second base or third base over the final weekend’s worth of games. Kozma technically remains arbitration-eligible now that he’s on the roster, but it’s quite possible he’ll simply be outrighted and become a free agent at season’s end.
Rich Hill “Definitely” Plans To Play In 2022
Rich Hill will turn 42 years old next March, but the veteran southpaw told reporters last night that he “definitely” plans to pitch next season (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). “The drive is still there and the ability is still there,” said Hill, who did not rule out a return to the Mets.
It’s hard to argue with the left-hander’s assessment. He’s not only wrapping up a 17th Major League season but is putting the finishing touches on a season that will see him shoulder his largest workload since way back in 2007. Hill has pitched in 32 games (31 starts) this season and racked up 158 2/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball. He’s fanned 22.3 percent of his opponents against an 8.3 percent walk rate.
Hill isn’t inducing whiffs as often as he did with the Dodgers a few years ago, but he’s still inducing weak contact at rates well north of the league average. His 88.3 mph average exit velocity and 34.8 percent hard-hit rate are both strong marks, and those numbers actually improved following a midseason trade from the Rays to the Mets (87.2 mph exit velo, 32.3 percent hard-hit rate).
Pitching into his age-42 season would add another chapter to Hill’s remarkable comeback journey. The left-hander pitched just 75 2/3 innings in the Majors from 2010-14 and had become something of a journeyman reliever before parlaying a strong stint in indie ball into a dominant four-start run with the Red Sox late in 2015. Those four starts and 29 innings prompted the Athletics to sign Hill to a one-year, $6MM contract, and he continued his sudden dominance with the A’s before being traded to the Dodgers in a deal that netted Oakland right-hander Frankie Montas.
Hill spent the 2017-19 seasons in Los Angeles after signing a three-year, $48MM contract to return — a number that would’ve appeared unfathomable just a couple years prior. Even when he required elbow surgery in the 2019-20 offseason, he still drew plenty of interest and inked an incentive-laden, one-year deal with the Twins. He split the 2021 season between Tampa Bay and Queens, and he’ll now look to come back for an 18th big league campaign.
Since undergoing elbow surgery, Hill has seen his fastball velocity dip but has nevertheless remained effective. He’s pitched 197 1/3 innings dating back to Opening Day 2020 and logged a 3.69 ERA with a 22.2 percent strikeout rate, an 8.8 percent walk rate, a 36.2 percent ground-ball rate and 1.09 home runs per nine innings pitched. A team won’t sign Hill to be the ace of its staff, but he should have little difficulty finding another one-year deal to pitch in the middle of a rotation.
AJ Pollock Will Narrowly Miss Triggering Ability To Opt Out Of Contract
Dodgers outfielder AJ Pollock is in the midst of one of his best seasons, having posted an excellent .301/.360/.532 batting line with 19 home runs, 27 doubles, a triple and nine stolen bases. That production would position the 33-year-old as one of the best outfielders on the free-agent market this winter, but MLBTR has confirmed that Pollock will fall just a few plate appearances shy of the threshold necessary to trigger an opt-out clause in his deal.
Pollock’s contract, signed in Jan. 2019, was a four-year, $55MM deal that covered the 2019-22 seasons with a player option for a fifth year in 2023. However, the contract also allowed Pollock to opt out of the 2022 season and receive a $5MM buyout if he hit one of two plate appearance milestones: 1450 plate appearances combined from 2019-21 or 1000 combined from 2020-2021.
Last year’s pandemic-shortened season threw a wrench into vesting clauses such as this one, but the league and the players association agreed to prorate plate appearances and innings pitched for the purpose of calculations such as this one. Pollock’s 210 plate appearances last season are thus multiplied by 2.7, meaning they account for 567 plate appearances toward that threshold. (MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored this possibility when Pollock returned from the IL last week.)
Pollock needed 433 plate appearances in 2021 to unlock that right to opt out, but he’s currently at 408 plate appearances with just four games to play. It’s nearly unfathomable that he’d manage to accumulate 25 trips to the plate in a span of four games. As such, it seems that a pair of hamstring strains for Pollock this season — one in his left leg in May and another in his right leg earlier this month — will cost him the opportunity to return to the open market in advance of his age-34 season.
Pollock will now be under contract for the 2022 season on a $10MM salary, after which he’ll have a $10MM player option or a $5MM buyout. To that extent, he’ll still control his own fate next offseason, but he’ll be doing so when he’s a year older and potentially coming off a weaker performance at the plate. Pollock’s contract does allow him to boost the value of that $10MM option as well; it’d increase by $1MM for reaching each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances next season.
Angels Move Matt Thaiss To Catcher
Former first-round pick Matt Thaiss was a catcher in college but was drafted more for his bat than his defensive skills. Upon selecting him with the No. 16 overall pick in 2016, the Angels immediately converted Thaiss to a corner infielder. However, manager Joe Maddon tells reporters that Thaiss, who moved back behind the plate in Triple-A this season, will now be considered a full-time catcher (Twitter link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). Thaiss was recalled from Triple-A today, with righty Janson Junk being optioned to Salt Lake in his place.
It’s a notable development for the Angels, who’ll likely entrust Max Stassi with the bulk of the catching workload in 2022 but will also see veteran Kurt Suzuki become a free agent this winter. For now, Thaiss gives the Halos an option to perhaps see some time as a backup next year. However, if he proves to be a passable option behind the dish and can carry over any of his minor league production to the big leagues, Thaiss would give the Angels a potential long-term option at catcher.
That’s a tall order for a player who didn’t receive great reviews for his defense at catcher even dating back to his college days at the University of Virginia. Baseball America noted in 2016, when ranking Thaiss as the No. 28 prospect in the draft, that he had “more than enough arm for the position, but many scouts aren’t sold on his receiving and blocking skills despite the work he’s put into both.” He was regarded as a polished hitter but one who was best-suited for a position change. The Angels clearly agreed, as Thaiss didn’t catch a single game in their system until earlier this year.
Thaiss has yet to provide much offense in the big leagues, although he hasn’t had much of a look — just 196 plate appearances in that three-year span. He’s walked in 11.2 percent of those plate appearances, connected on nine homers and struck out at a 31.1 percent clip. The overall .201/.291/.397 slash isn’t good, but there’s some obvious power and a knack for drawing walks with Thaiss. His small sample of MLB work paints the portrait of a three-true-outcomes slugger, but strikeouts haven’t been a major issue for Thaiss in the upper minors. He’s fanned in 18.3 percent of his Triple-A plate appearances over three seasons and, this year, is slashing a very solid .280/.383/.496 with 17 long balls in 449 trips to the plate.
The move to catcher, in some ways, is partly out of necessity. The presence of Jared Walsh, Shohei Ohtani and (until he was released in May) Albert Pujols cut into any available at-bats at first base or designated hitter. The signing of Anthony Rendon nixed any chances of Thaiss becoming a long-term option at the hot corner. Thaiss could’ve conceivably been a fill-in at third this season, given Rendon’s injuries, but he’s instead been honing his catching skills down in Triple-A. It’s a small sample of just 54 games, but Baseball Prospectus gives Thaiss solid marks both in framing and blocking. He’s thwarted just 20 percent of stolen base attempts (12 of 60). It’s a work in progress.
Thaiss’ defensive development (or lack thereof) as a catcher carries some long-term implications. While the incumbent Stassi has enjoyed a quietly hit .256/.340/.463 with 20 homers in 415 plate appearances since Opening Day 2020 — a breakout that should really garner more attention than it has — he’s also on pace to be a free agent after the 2022 campaign. There’s an opportunity for Thaiss to make the necessary improvements and position himself as a plausible successor to Stassi, so it’s well worth keeping an eye on his progress behind the dish over the next year. If he’s unable to make the adjustment, he’d be out of minor league options by the time 2023 rolls around, clouding his outlook with the Halos.
Pineda, Baldelli Voice Interest In Reunion
Twins righty Michael Pineda is set to hit free agency this winter, but he again made clear that he hopes to re-sign with the team following last night’s victory. Pineda stressed to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune and others that he “loves” Minnesota and would be happy to return — echoing previous comments about his hope to continue calling Target Field his home. Manager Rocco Baldelli also voiced his own hope that the front office will be able to come to terms on a reunion with Pineda, calling the big righty a “pillar in our clubhouse” and extolling Pineda’s leadership qualities.
There’s no indication the Twins and Pineda have begun extension talks, but Minnesota has already re-signed Pineda once. He’s spent the past four seasons in the Twins organization, playing on a pair of two-year deals ($10MM and $20MM, respectively). It’s been a mixed bag of a season for Pineda, who sports a 3.62 ERA through 109 1/3 innings. He’s missed time due to both an elbow injury and an oblique strain, the former of which surely curbed interest in him at the trade deadline.
Pineda’s average fastball is down to a career-low 90.9 mph, and his 19.2 percent strikeout rate is also a career-low. He’s allowing more hard contact than ever before, both in terms of average exit velocity (91.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.1 percent). That said, Pineda is also sporting one of the best walk rates of his career (4.6 percent), the best first-pitch strike rate of his career (69.7 percent) and continues to be one of the best in the game at inducing swings on pitches outside the strike zone.
The Twins have an obvious need for rotation help next season. They traded away Jose Berrios for a pair of high-end prospects at the deadline and lost righty Kenta Maeda to Tommy John surgery. Rookie Bailey Ober has stepped up and laid claim to a 2021 spot with a quietly solid debut campaign. Right-hander Joe Ryan, whom they acquired from the Rays in exchange for Nelson Cruz, has been excellent through the first four starts of his own career. Minnesota has plenty of near-MLB prospects as well — Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Josh Winder and Matt Canterino among them — but there’s no experienced starter returning to next year’s staff with Maeda likely to miss the 2022 season.
Minnesota figures to pursue multiple veterans in free agency and via the trade market this winter, as owner Jim Pohlad has already emphatically declared that even after trading Berrios, his club isn’t planning on embarking on a rebuilding effort. A Pineda reunion wouldn’t be the marquee addition for their staff this offseason, but he’d give the team some continuity from a leadership standpoint and some innings at the back of the rotation behind whichever higher-profile arms the Twins ultimately pursue.
Of course, Pineda voicing his own desire to return in no way guarantees the interest will be reciprocated, but Baldelli’s comments at least indicate that he’ll be making his own pitch to the front office to keep Pineda in the fold. Given the injuries Pineda has battled and the drop in fastball velocity, it’s possible the Twins’ front office will simply decide it’s best to move on. At the same time, however, those factors will limit Pineda’s appeal on the market and could force him into an affordable one-year pact, which could pique the club’s interest.
Royals’ Richard Lovelady Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Royals left-hander Richard Lovelady announced late last night on Instagram that he underwent Tommy John surgery this week. It’s not entirely out of the blue, as the 26-year-old southpaw was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in late August.
Tommy John surgery will quite likely wipe out the entirety of the 2022 season for Lovelady, as most pitchers require more than a year of rehab work. The Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson is one recent exception, but even he returned just four days shy of his operation’s one-year anniversary. It’s technically possible that Lovelady could be ready late next September, but precedent very strongly suggests Spring Training 2023 is a likelier target date.
Losing Lovelady for a full year’s time is a notable hit to Kansas City’s bullpen outlook next season. Long rated as one of the organization’s most promising relief prospects, Lovelady has dominated in the minors and, in 2021, had begun to carry that success over to the big leagues. While Lovelady struggled in 21 MLB frames from 2019-20, he pitched to a 3.48 ERA with strong strikeout (27.1), walk (7.1) and ground-ball (56.6) percentages in 20 2/3 innings this year. Combine that success with a career 2.12 ERA in the minor leagues, including a 2.51 mark in 107 1/3 Triple-A frames, and it’s easy to see why the organization is increasingly bullish on the lefty’s future.
The recent injury surely doesn’t change the Royals’ view that Lovelady can be a big part of their pitching staff down the road, but the wait for him to cement himself as such will now be further prolonged. That said, the Royals still control Lovelady all the way through the 2026 season, so even if he’s not back on a big league mound until 2023, they could still enjoy four full seasons of the talented lefty before he’s eligible to test the free-agent market. He’ll accrue a year of service time and big league pay next year on the 60-day injured list due to the fact that the injury occurred while he was pitching on the big league roster.
Looking ahead to the 2022 campaign, the Royals will lean heavily on the late-inning duo of Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont to close things down, while lefty Jake Brentz and righty Domingo Tapia have quite likely punched their tickets for a spot on the big league staff as well. Bullpen help, however, already figured to be a priority for the Kansas City front office this winter. Losing one of the team’s more promising arms for the majority or entirety of next season only makes that an even likelier area of focus for newly promoted president of baseball operations Dayton Moore, general manager J.J. Piccolo and the rest of the Royals’ baseball ops department.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Wednesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Tommy Pham On Injuries, Free Agency
Tommy Pham‘s time with the Padres hasn’t gone as he or the organization would’ve hoped at the time of his acquisition from the Rays. The 33-year-old outfielder missed a chunk of “Summer Camp” last July after testing positive for Covid-19, and he suffered a broken hamate bone mid-August, limiting him to just 31 games. Even more alarming was a frightening offseason scene in which Pham was stabbed outside a San Diego club — a life-threatening attack that required 200 stitches and left the outfielder with a footlong scar on his back.
Pham, remarkably, managed to participate in Spring Training and was able to take the field come Opening Day for the Padres. It marked an incredible recovery, but it’s clear that that wave of health issues has taken its toll on Pham. Through 150 games and 553 plate appearances, Pham has posted just a .229/.342/.383 batting line. He’s drawing walks at a career-high 14.1 percent clip, but he’s also striking out at high highest rate since 2018 (22.8 percent) and hasn’t matched the power he showed from 2016-19. Given that Pham is set to hit the open market at season’s end, the combined .226/.336/.370 slash he’s delivered in two years with the Padres is all the more disappointing.
In a postgame interview with the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Annie Heilbrunn (YouTube link), Pham was candid in discussing his health, his own lackluster performance and the second-half collapse of his team. Asked about the Padres’ descent from what looked like a surefire playoff club to a team fighting to finish .500, Pham placed no shortage of blame on himself.
“I didn’t play well enough,” Pham said when asked what went wrong for the Padres. “…I’ve got to be a more consistent hitter. I’ve got to work on regaining my strength and speed this offseason. I have a lot to work on.”
Obviously, the Padres’ nosedive in the standings is related to far more than just a disappointing season for Pham, who couldn’t have anything resembling a normal offseason while recovering from surgery in the wake of that stabbing. However, Pham’s acknowledgement regarding his speed and strength (or lack thereof) is indeed borne out when looking at his Statcast profile.
Pham’s average exit velocity dropped by a hefty 1.9 mph in spite of the fact that his percentage of “barreled” balls improved from 7.3 percent to 10.1 percent. As Pham explains to Heilbrunn: “…even the balls I’ve been barreling, the exit velocity just ain’t there.”
From a speed perspective, Pham is still a better runner than the average big leaguer, but his sprint speed of 27.8 feet per second is down from last year’s 28.2 ft/sec and down more handily from the 28.7 ft/sec he posted in each season from 2016-19. It should be noted that Pham’s 90.9 mph exit velocity and 27.8 ft/sec sprint speed still rank in the 78th and 70th percentiles among big league players.
It’s all led to a stark downturn in performance for Pham, who from 2017-19 was among the game’s most underrated players. A 2017 breakout saw him post a huge .306/.411/.520 batting line with 23 homers and 25 steals in just 530 plate appearances/128 games. Pham largely sustained his production in his two subsequent healthy seasons, wrapping that three-year stretch up with a composite .284/.381/.475 line. He was worth 13.5 and 13.8 wins above replacement, respectively, in the estimation of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs during that time.
Had Pham reached the market on the heels of that three-year run, he’d have been extremely well compensated. But as a late-bloomer who didn’t get an earnest look with the Cardinals until 2017, at age 29, Pham will instead reach free agency headed into his age-34 campaign and on the heels of a pair of highly unfortunate seasons. He’s realistic about the toll these past two years have likely taken on his market.
“I didn’t have the season I was expecting,” says Pham. “I’m fully prepared to take a one-year deal and reestablish my market.”
[Related: 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List]
That’s a tough proposition for a player entering his mid-30s, however. Pham will be 34 next March, so even if he indeed reestablishes himself as a quality all-around corner outfielder, he’ll do so in advance of his age-35 campaign.
Given the manner in which teams are increasingly reluctant to sign mid-30s and late-30s players to lucrative multi-year deals, it’s fair to question just what type of ceiling would be placed on Pham’s earning power even if he does rebound in full. Michael Brantley inked a two-year, $32MM contract covering his age-34 and age-35 seasons after playing for three years at a roughly three- to four-win pace, however, so there’s some recent precedent for a corner outfielder in this age bracket commanding a rather lucrative multi-year pact.
Of course, any such talk is putting the cart before the horse. Pham’s focus in the offseason will be both getting back into peak physical condition and finding the best opportunity for the 2022 season. It’s not out of the question that teams would have some interest on a multi-year contract, given Pham’s prior excellence. Pham, however, sounded plenty confident in his ability to rebound from these past couple seasons and position himself for a stronger annual value in future trips to the market. Unsurprisingly, he made clear that he’d welcome the opportunity to do so with the Padres, though he gave no indication any such negotiations have taken place just yet.