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Cubs Non-Tender Schwarber, Almora, Tepera

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7:14pm: The Cubs announced that Schwarber, Almora, right-hander Ryan Tepera and first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez have all been non-tendered.

6:46pm: The Cubs have informed outfielder Kyle Schwarber that he won’t be tendered a contract for the upcoming season, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports (via Twitter). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported prior that “barring a change of plans,” the Cubs were intent on non-tendering both Schwarber and center fielder Albert Almora Jr. The Cubs do plan on tendering a contract to third baseman Kris Bryant, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman indicated earlier in the week. Both Schwarber and Almora will become free agents once their non-tenders are made official.

Schwarber, 27, is coming off a rough season in which he put together just a .188/.308/.393 batting line in 224 plate appearances. The former No. 4 overall draft pick walked at a characteristically strong 13.4 percent clip this past season, but his 29.5 percent strikeout rate was the highest mark he’s posted since 2017. At his best, Schwarber is an above-average power bat with passable left-field defense, but he’s also had plenty of defensive struggles throughout his career.

Schwarber earned $7MM in 2020 and was due a raise on that sum. As we saw with the Twins and Eddie Rosario, who cleared waivers today, that’s not a price point at which teams appear anxious to pay above-average hitters with some notable flaws (on-base percentage in Rosario’s case; defense and strikeouts for Schwarber).

The decision to jettison Almora is far less surprising. Though he was once rated as a high-end prospect and potential everyday center fielder, the 26-year-old hasn’t provided value at the plate over the past three seasons, batting a combined .261/.299/.373 (77 wRC+). He’s a talented defender with passable career numbers against left-handed pitching, however, so he could latch on as a fourth outfielder with another club.

Tendering a contract to Bryant, meanwhile, puts the Cubs in line to pay him a raise on this year’s $18.6MM salary. For a Cubs team looking to reduce payroll, he’s still a likely trade candidate, although finding a deal could be tricky. Bryant battled injuries and hit just .206/.293/.351 in 34 games this past season, which would give potential trade partners cause for concern (as would his salary). The ceiling here, of course, is an MVP-caliber player on a reasonable one-year deal, but teams aren’t going to value him as such in light of recent struggles. Convincing a trade partner to not only absorb Bryant’s salary but also to surrender some young talent of note could prove difficult for newly minted president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer.

Rockies Non-Tender David Dahl, Tony Wolters

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The Rockies announced that they’ve non-tendered outfielder David Dahl, catcher Tony Wolters and right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez. All three are now free agents.

Dahl, 26, registers as something of a surprise non-tender. The former top prospect was due only a very modest raise on last year’s $2.475MM salary, and while he struggled through an awful 2020 season, hitting .183/.222/.247, he’s only a year removed from an All-Star campaign. In 2019, Dahl slashed .302/.353/.524 with 15 big flies, 28 doubles and five triples through 413 plate appearances.

The sky once looked to be the limit for Dahl, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2012 draft. He was universally regarded as a top 100 prospect throughout his minor league career, landing within the top 25 on multiple lists in multiple offseasons. He debuted in 2016 and hit .315/.359/.500 through 236 plate appearances, looking every bit like the star that most anticipated he would become.

Unfortunately for Dahl, injuries have hindered him time and time again. He’s had his spleen removed after suffering a laceration during a violent on-field collision, and he’s since dealt with stress reactions in his rib cage, a fractured foot, a high ankle sprain, multiple back injuries and most recently a shoulder injury. With all of those health concerns, perhaps the Rockies simply didn’t expect they could count on him to remain on the field in 2021, but a salary in the $2.5-2.6MM range doesn’t seem like much of a risk given the upside he carried over his remaining three years of club control.

Wolters, 28, has been a non-tender candidate in each of the past two seasons but hung onto his roster spot despite a lack of production at the plate. Rockies brass clearly has long liked his defensive capabilities, but at this point the club wasn’t willing to give him a raise on top of last year’s $1.9MM salary. Over the past three seasons, Wolters has batted .231/.316/.307. Gonzalez, also 28, has pitched in 20 games (16 starts) for the Rox since 2019 but been roughed up for a 5.66 ERA and 5.62 FIP.

Angels Acquire Jose Iglesias

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The Angels have a new shortstop, as they’ve acquired veteran Jose Iglesias from the Orioles in exchange for minor league right-handers Garrett Stallings and Jean Pinto, per announcements from both clubs. It’s the second straight winter with a notable trade between the two teams. The Halos acquired Dylan Bundy from the O’s last winter.

It’s something of a surprising move — one that rather definitively closes the door on a reunion between the Halos and free-agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons (though most expected Simmons to land elsewhere anyhow). Baltimore general manager Mike Elias has previously spoken of Iglesias’ importance to the roster, calling him a “perfect fit for what we need right now” (link via Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun). Elias said it was an easy decision to pick up the $3.5MM club option on Iglesias for the 2021 season, although the Orioles waited until the last minute to formally make said decision.

Iglesias, 31 next month, may not be the generational defender that Simmons is, but he’s long been regarded as one of the game’s premier defenders at the position. The knock against him has typically been his offense (or lack thereof), but he flipped the narrative in 2020 by slashing .373/.400/.556 with three homers and 17 doubles. Iglesias shouldn’t be expected to repeat that production, as he benefited greatly from a .407 average on balls in play while landing in just the 12th and 36th percentiles, respectively, in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

That said, Iglesias still has some value at the dish. The 2020 season was actually the third of his career in which he’s batted .300 or better, and he’s been one of the more difficult hitters in the game to strike out since making his MLB debut back in 2011. He lacks any real power and doesn’t draw many walks, which often leads to a rather “empty” batting average, but those bat-to-ball skills do allow him to get on base at a respectable clip (career .319).

Iglesias’ BABIP-fueled surge was well-timed, as he wasn’t able to play much at shortstop in 2020 owing to a nagging quadriceps injury that limited his mobility. Assuming he’s healthy in 2021, he’ll give the Angels a shortstop who’s posted 18 Defensive Runs Saved and a 35.4 Ultimate Zone Rating over his past 4672 innings at the shortstop position.

It’s a cost-effective means of addressing a glaring hole on the roster — one that should allow the Angels to maintain a strong infield defense. That the Halos filled such a clear need via a trade bodes poorly for this winter’s crop of free-agent shortstops, however. With Simmons hitting the market, names like Marcus Semien and Didi Gregorius were surely eyeing the Angels as a potential fit. Iglesias’ salary is light enough that the Angels could still add another shortstop and use Iglesias in a utility role, though it seems unlikely that they’d have traded away young talent to acquire a utility man with so many other options on the market. In all likelihood, Iglesias will be tabbed as the starter, leaving Gregorius, Simmons, Semien and other shortstops looking elsewhere for homes in free agency.

In Stallings and Pinto, the Orioles will add another pair of far-off pitching prospects who could add to the organization’s depth down the road. Stallings was the Angels’ fifth-round pick out of the University of Tennessee in 2019 and now slots in 26th among Orioles farmhands over at MLB.com.

Stallings has yet to pitch in a professional game because the Angels shut him down after signing him out of the draft, citing a heavy college workload. MLB.com’s report on him credits him for having a legitimate four-pitch mix, albeit without a plus offering. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen tabs Stallings as a “low-variance, fifth starter prospect.” The 19-year-old Pinto has just 12 pro innings under his belt and didn’t rank inside the Angels’ 30 best prospects, nor does he land on Baltimore’s top 30 list.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the deal (via Twitter).

Dan Straily To Re-Sign With KBO’s Lotte Giants

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Right-hander Dan Straily is returning for a second season with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Straily received some interest from teams around the Majors, but the Apex Baseball client will instead return to the KBO on another one-year deal. The pact is worth $1.2MM and includes $500K in incentives, Craig Mish of Sportsgrid tweets.

In 31 starts with the Giants in his debut KBO campaign, Straily totaled 194 frames and pitched to a 2.50 ERA and 2.97 FIP with 9.5 strikeouts, 2.4 walks and 0.46 home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. That showing garnered some interest from the Reds, Angels and Giants, among others. Based on the fact that he’s returning to the KBO, it’s possible that Straily didn’t receive a guaranteed offer, so he’ll instead re-up and take home a raise over last year’s $1MM salary.

It’s possible that Straily could have eventually found a big league deal had he waited out the Major League free-agent market, but that would’ve been a slow-going process with so many clubs still uncertain about their 2021 budgets and with many new entrants expected to hit the market thanks to today’s non-tender deadline. KBO clubs tend to get their business done much earlier in their offseason than most MLB organizations, so Straily looks to be opting for the guaranteed payday already in hand. Another strong season in 2021 would only strengthen his case for a big league return next winter.

Straily’s last big league action was disastrous, as he allowed 52 earned runs in just 47 2/3 frames for the Orioles back in 2019. However, he was a quality mid-rotation piece the three years prior, totaling 495 1/3 innings of 4.03 ERA ball with 7.8 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 495 1/3 innings between the Reds and the Marlins.

Mets Sign Trevor May

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DEC. 2: The deal is official. It’s a $15.5MM guarantee, Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets. May could make another $250K in performance bonuses in each season.

DEC. 1, 4:07pm: May’s contract is worth around $15MM, Heyman tweets.

2:10pm: It’s a two-year deal for May, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

1:37pm: The Mets have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent reliever Trevor May, SNY’s Andy Martino reports (via Twitter). The contract is pending a physical. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reported earlier this afternoon that May and the Mets were “deep” in talks. May is represented by the VC Sports Group.

Trevor May | Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

May, 31, becomes the first prominent reliever to come off the board. The longtime Twins righty bounced back from Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2017 season to become a reliable, late-inning power arm in Minnesota and one of the game’s foremost strikeout pitchers.

Since returning from that elbow operation, May has compiled 113 innings of 3.19 ERA and 3.56 FIP ball, averaging 12.2 strikeouts, 3.0 walks and 1.4 home runs per nine innings pitched. This past season was particularly impressive for May in terms of missing bats, as he whiffed an outstanding 39.6 percent of the hitters he faced.

May’s fastball averaged a career-high 96.4 mph in 2020, although the righty threw the pitch at a greatly reduced 52.1 percent clip. In place of the heaters, the right-hander ramped up the use of his slider to a career-high 32.2 percent and did so to great success; May generated a 14.6 percent swinging-strike rate on his slider, and plate appearances he finished with that pitch resulted in opponents putting up a pitiful .167/.167/.250 batting line.

Because he works at the top of the zone with his four-seamer, May has trouble with the long ball at times. However he also generated a ridiculous 20.6 percent swinging-strike rate on his fastball thanks to high-end velocity and spin on the pitch. Overall, Statcast pegged May in the 99th percentile of Major League pitchers in terms of swinging-strike rate and in the 98th percentile in terms of overall strikeout rate in 2020. For a Mets club that already boasts several power arms at the back of the bullpen, May only adds more firepower.

Of course, many of those arms are in need of a rebound. It’s arguable that if Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances and others had all pitched to their capabilities in 2020, the Mets might not have felt as motivated to make a push for an “early” deal with May. Still, pairing May with Edwin Diaz, Familia, Betances, Miguel Castro, Brad Brach and potentially Seth Lugo — depending on which direction the organization goes with him — gives the Mets a deep and talented mix of late-inning weapons, even if they there’s some considerable inconsistency among the bunch.

May was no doubt highly recommended and perhaps even personally recruited by Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, who was the Twins’ bullpen coach prior to the 2020 season. Hefner, a former Mets pitcher, played a role in helping to coax a breakout from May and several other Twins relievers before being hired away by his former team.

The May signing is the first notable move of what most expect to be a highly active offseason for the Mets. While they’re still on the search for a new general manager, Sandy Alderson is back with the club under deep-pocketed new owner Steve Cohen and is calling the shots in baseball operations at the moment. With the game’s richest owner now in their corner, the Mets have already been linked to the majority of the top names on both the trade and free-agent markets.

NPB’s Yakult Swallows To Sign Cy Sneed

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TODAY: The Astros have requested unconditional release waivers on Sneed, according to multiple reports.  Sneed will be free to join the Swallows once he clears waivers.

NOVEMBER 27: The Yakult Swallows if Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have signed their second former big leaguer in as many days, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that they’ve agreed to terms with now-former Astros right-hander Cy Sneed (Twitter link). Yakult agreed to terms with former Pirates corner infielder/outfielder Jose Osuna earlier in the week.

Sneed, 28, came to the Astros organization in the 2015 trade that sent Jonathan Villar to the Brewers. He went on to make his Major League debut in 2019 and, over the course of the past two seasons, has logged 38 2/3 innings for Houston. It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for the 2014 third-rounder, however, as he’s been tagged for a 5.59 ERA and a 4.78 FIP with a 44-to-15 K/BB ratio and a hefty eight home runs allowed in that limited sample of work.

Sneed averages 93.5 mph on his heater and has complemented that pitch with a changeup, curveball and split-finger, though he largely scrapped the splitter in 2020. While he’s struggled in the Majors, he’s had some success in Triple-A. After a dismal Triple-A debut in 2017, Sneed turned in 127 innings of 3.83 ERA/3.89 FIP ball in an extremely hitter-friendly setting with the Astros’ Fresno affiliate in the Pacific Coast League in 2018. He put up similar numbers in 2019 when Houston’s Triple-A club moved to Round Rock in 2019.

Houston has yet to formally announce Sneed’s release, though that formality is likely the final step in the process. The Swallows will likely pay some compensation to the Astros in order to release Sneed, who’ll surely get a larger guarantee to pitch in NPB next year than he’d have received as an up-and-down, pre-arbitration member of the Astros’ staff in 2021. The Astros’ 40-man roster now drops to a count of 38 players.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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After a ninth consecutive playoff miss, Phillies owner John Middleton opted to move on from general manager Matt Klentak. Now, two years after Middleton’s infamous “stupid money” comments, the Phillies seem to be putting out signals cautioning against a splashy winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryce Harper, OF: $274MM through 2031
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP: $96.25MM through 2024
  • Aaron Nola, RHP: $31MM through 2022 (includes $4.25MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2023)
  • Jean Segura, INF: $29.5MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2023)
  • Andrew McCutchen, OF: $23MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2022)
  • Scott Kingery, INF/OF: $19MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2024; contract also contains club options in 2025-26)
  • Odubel Herrera, OF: $12.5MM through 2021 (includes $2.5MM buyout of 2022 club option; Herrera is no longer on the 40-man roster)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

It’s been nearly two months since Matt Klentak stepped down as Phillies general manager and accepted a reassignment to another position within the organization, yet we still don’t have any clear indication as to who will take over the reins. President Andy MacPhail, a former general manager of the Twins and Orioles himself, held onto his title amid the team’s front office shuffling, and assistant GM Ned Rice stepped into the GM role on an interim basis.

That pair brings decades of baseball operations experience to the table, but it’s rather befuddling that the next steps remain so unclear. The Phils reportedly gauged interest from Theo Epstein but were rebuffed, as the now-former Cubs president instead prefers to take at least a year away from the game. Former D-backs and Padres GM Josh Byrnes has interviewed, but there’s no indication as to whether he’s being strongly considered by Middleton.

The Athletic’s Matt Gelb suggested in early October that the Phils might wait for MacPhail to retire at the end of the 2021 season before bringing in a hire, but that’s a puzzling approach in and of itself. If the end result of Klentak resigning is that he remains with the organization in a new role while his top lieutenant, Rice, continues to work alongside MacPhail — how much have things truly changed?

Klentak increasingly drew the ire of Phillies fans, with many voicing dissatisfaction regarding the team’s stalled extension talks with star catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is now a free agent after rejecting a qualifying offer. That seems like misplaced frustration, frankly, as the final say on whether to pay Realmuto on a long-term arrangement lands with ownership, not the general manager. Over the past several months, most reports out of Philadelphia have suggested that the team is not optimistic about its chances to retain Realmuto.

If Realmuto walks, that seems like a Middleton-driven decision that would have happened regardless of who is in the GM’s chair. Yet at the press conference announcing the changing of the guard in the front office, Middleton almost seemed to endeavor to take credit for approving the Realmuto swap without taking blame for the failure to extend him. “…[M]y position was, I’d be willing to trade Sixto as long as you extend J.T.,” Middleton said at the time. “And if you don’t extend J.T., I wouldn’t trade Sixto.”

There’s a disconnect in those comments, plain and simple. Middleton implies that he held considerable influence over the acquisition of Realmuto but left the matter of an extension solely to his baseball operations outfit. That seems unlikely, and if it’s in fact accurate, that type of inconsistency with regard to autonomy is a failing in and of itself. It’s hard not to wonder if an experienced GM would look on from the outside and be turned off by an owner trying to take credit for the good and shirk responsibility for the bad.

None of this is to say that there weren’t plenty of misfires during Klentak’s time as general manager, of course. The Phillies’ catastrophic bullpen implosion over the past two seasons is glaring, and it seemed no matter what moves the front office made to rectify the situation, the outcome was poor. The signing of Carlos Santana that pushed Rhys Hoskins into an ill-suited left field role clearly did not pay dividends. Jake Arrieta’s three-year deal didn’t work out, either. At the end of the day, a five-year span of no playoff appearances in a big market will be enough to doom any baseball operations leader, as we saw not only in Philadelphia but in Anaheim this winter.

Front office composition aside, however, the bottom line for the Phillies this winter is that they’re not sure who will be catching games for them in 2021. They also have holes at shortstop and, to a lesser extent, in center field. On the pitching side of things, from the back of the rotation to the entirety of the relief corps, questions abound. The Phillies’ ability to strengthen these flaws are dependent on Middleton’s willingness to spend in the wake of 2020 revenue losses, and indications put forth thus far by both the owner and MacPhail have not been encouraging.

“At this time almost every club, honestly, it’s more about reduction of players than it is adding,” MacPhail said in late October (link via The Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro). “…But the likelihood of a significant add, I think, in the short term or even mid term is not very high.” There may be no better indication of the Phillies’ reluctance to spend than the fact that a team with a historically bad bullpen in 2020 allowed Brad Hand to pass through waivers unclaimed at $10MM. (Although, to be fair to the Phils, so did every other club in the game.)

To get a better handle on the Phillies’ outlook in the days and months to come, the payroll as a whole needs to be taken in. The Phils have seven players on guaranteed contracts in 2021 — counting Odubel Herrera, who was outrighted off the 40-man roster but is still owed this year’s salary. That group checks in at a weighty $108.5MM, and the remaining slate of arbitration-eligible players could push the Phils up to nearly $127MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Phillies’ payroll could top $135MM before they make a single addition.

Vince Velasquez and Hector Neris stand out as potential non-tender candidates. Cutting bait on that duo would bring the Phils back into the $125MM range but would also create more holes; Neris has served as the team’s closer in recent seasons, while Velasquez has been a fifth starter despite (at best) inconsistent results.

The Phillies were set to open the 2020 season with a payroll upwards of $186MM, so there’s certainly some breathing room between that mark and this year’s current levels. However, the expectation is that Middleton plans to reduce payroll. There’s no set number that’s been floated, but the assumption clearly should not be that the Phillies will return to those heights in 2021.

For that reason, retaining Realmuto could be a long shot. He’s spoken in the past about advancing the market for catchers, and while it’s nearly impossible to see him topping Joe Mauer’s record eight-year, $184MM contract, he could set his sights on besting Mauer’s average annual value of $23MM. If that’s the case, Realmuto would be an exceptionally steep add for the Phils at this time, even if there’s some backloading of the deal to offset the hit in the early years. Of course, backloading the deal would come with its own complications; the Phils are already paying Harper and Zack Wheeler a combined $49.5MM in 2024, and Middleton may not be keen on locking in upwards of $75MM in salary to three players a whole four years down the road.

Should Realmuto land elsewhere — he’s been connected to the Mets, Blue Jays and Nationals, among other clubs — the market does present alternatives. James McCann and Yadier Molina bring two starting-caliber options to the free-agent pool, and the trade market could feature several names, including manager Joe Girardi’s former Yankees backstop, Gary Sanchez. The Phils are already reported to like McCann as a fallback to Realmuto.

The Phillies’ other question marks on the position-player side of the roster lie up the middle as well. Rookie of the Year finalist Alec Bohm has third base locked down now, and Rhys Hoskins will be back at first base once he’s sufficiently recovered from Tommy John surgery. Less clear, however, is the shortstop situation now that Didi Gregorius is back on the open market in search of a multi-year deal. Such a contract could come from the Phils, of course, but that again is dependent on Middleton’s tolerance for spending this winter. Jean Segura and Scott Kingery are on hand as potential options at second base and shortstop, although Segura doesn’t profile as a strong defensive option at the position at this point.

If the Phillies do bring in a shortstop — be it Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons or another option — they could play Segura at second base and pair Kingery in center field with Adam Haseley. The versatile Kingery struggled immensely at the plate in 2020, although he had a strong 2019 campaign and may have been severely impacted by a pre-season bout with Covid-19.

Kingery declined to make excuses for his poor showing on multiple occasions early in the year but eventually acknowledged that his overall energy level was not back to normal (link via the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber). As of mid-August, Kingery was still dealing with repeated shortness of breath and fatigue. It’s easy to imagine a healthier version of Kingery trending back toward 2019’s .258/.315/.474 output, and depending on the extent to which the Phillies plan to reduce payroll, a rebound from him could be one of the keys to their 2021 fate. Kingery was a league-average bat with plus baserunning and average or better glovework at three positions in 2019, after all. Being able to rely on him in center and/or at shortstop could prove pivotal.

If the Phils prefer Kingery/Segura in the middle infield and want to look outside the organization for some outfield help, there are affordable options to pair with Haseley’s lefty bat. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick and Cameron Maybin are all free agents. Enrique Hernandez has a strong track record against southpaws and could provide cover both in center field and around the infield, making him a nice fit (particularly if Bohm needs to spend time at first base early in the year while Hoskins finishes mending).

In the rotation, the Phillies’ need isn’t so dire. Aaron Nola and Wheeler are a formidable one-two punch, with Zach Eflin serving as a reliable source of innings in the third or fourth spot. Top prospect Spencer Howard struggled in 2020 but is still highly regarded. He’ll get another look next year.

That quartet has the makings of a competitive group, but the trade of Nick Pivetta, the possible non-tender of Velasquez and some struggles from prospects elsewhere in the organization all suggest that the Phils could benefit from a low-cost veteran to round out the group. The best course of action could simply be to see which veterans are left standing and willing to accept a low-base deal late in the winter. If they’re willing to spend more for some mid-rotation innings, names like Masahiro Tanaka, Jake Odorizzi and Jose Quintana are all available.

Looking at the Philadelphia bullpen, there’s little sign of immediate help for a group that in 2020 was one of the least-effective units in recent history. Several names are already gone — Brandon Workman, David Phelps, Jose Alvarez and Tommy Hunter are free agents. Heath Hembree was outrighted.

While the early market for free-agent starters has been strong, the relief market increasingly looks like an area where the “bloodbath” feared by many agents could manifest. Not only did Hand go unclaimed on waivers, but several seemingly reasonable club options on relievers were instead bought out. The expected glut of non-tenders could add another couple dozen relievers to the market.

For a Phillies club that doesn’t want to spend money but badly needs to add multiple arms to the relief corps, that could prove to be an ideal situation. The Phils could opt to spend big on one reliever and add several cost-effective names to round out the group, or more evenly distribute whatever resources they’re allotted to diversify risk and add several steady, competent arms to the bullpen.

The Phillies have underachieved for years now, and with several glaring holes on the roster and signals that they don’t plan to aggressively fill said needs, they could be in for more of the same. That said, this is still a group with a very talented core. The combination of Harper, Nola, Bohm, Hoskins and Wheeler is a strong start to any roster. If the Phils can shed some salary in creative ways or if Middleton changes course with a more aggressive financial approach, it’s possible to see this team contending.

Flawed as they may have been over the past three seasons, the Phillies have only narrowly missed the postseason each year. The NL East is more competitive than ever now that a young Marlins club is on the rise, but there’s enough talent in the Phillies’ core group to fuel a competitive unit next year if MacPhail/Rice or a new general manager push the right buttons.

NC Dinos To Post Sung-Bum Na

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TODAY: Na won’t be officially posted for a few more days, as to Jeeho Yoo reports that MLB has asked the Dinos for more medical documentation.  Specifically, Dinos general manager Jong-Moon Kim said the league wants more information about Na’s 2019 knee surgery, including a report from the surgeon who performed the procedure.  There isn’t expected to be any major obstacle to Na’s posting, as Kim said “I’ve been told by the KBO this is just the routine and par for the course.”

NOVEMBER 30: The NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization have asked the league to post outfielder/designated hitter Sung-Bum Na for Major League teams, Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports. Once the posting is made official by the two leagues, MLB clubs will have 30 days to negotiate with Na. Yoo reported earlier this year that Na had hired the Boras Corporation to represent him during the posting process.

Na, 31, just wrapped up an outstanding effort with the KBO champion Dinos, hitting .324/.390/.596 with 34 homers, 37 doubles and a pair of triples in 584 plate appearances. (Those interested can check out some 2020 highlights from Na on YouTube). He did strike out at a career-high 25.3 percent clip in that time against an 8.3 percent walk rate, although the career 21.3 percent strikeout rate he carried into the 2020 season is a bit more palatable.

Na has been an above-average hitter in KBO since his second year in the league and a star-level performer for much of that time. In 4140 career plate appearances since debuting as a 23-year-old, he’s batted .317/.384/.542 with 179 home runs, 244 doubles and 25 triples.

Early in his career, Na was a center fielder, playing the position on a full-time basis for the Dinos in 2013-14. He moved to right field for the 2015 campaign, and that’s been his primary defensive home since, although he’s still logged some occasional time in center — most recently in 2019 when he started 18 games there. However, Na’s 2019 season was cut short by a severe knee injury that resulted in him being placed on a stretcher and taken off the field in an ambulance, as he told ESPN’s Marly Rivera earlier this year. He underwent surgery and spent seven months rehabbing from that procedure.

Fresh off that knee surgery, Na spent more time as a designated hitter in 2020 than ever before, logging only 50 of the 130 games he played in right field. He also attempted a career-low four stolen bases; in his last full season in 2018, Na was 15-for-17 in that department. All of that is certainly understandable for a player coming off a major knee surgery, but those are also red flags that hamper his earning power with MLB clubs — even if Na enjoyed the most productive season of his career at the plate.

Sports Info Solutions’ Ted Baarda recently profiled Na (and a few other KBO hitters), praising his plus left-handed power and ability to consistently hit for average. Baarda notes that Na was a pitcher in college and still has a plus arm in right field, but he also writes that Na’s range and athleticism both took a step a back in 2020 following the surgery. The Boras camp will surely push that as a one-year aberration. That may well be the case, but it could still be a tough sell for MLB clubs. Back in May, Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser ranked Na fifth among KBO “prospects” who could plausibly jump to the Majors in the near future. Glaser touted Na’s pull power and throwing arm but noted some struggles against offspeed pitches.

During Na’s 30-day posting window, he’ll be able to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs. In addition to the actual contract paid to Na, the team that eventually signs him will also owe a posting fee to the Dinos. That fee would be equal to 20 percent of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM and 15 percent of any dollars thereafter. That fee is in addition to the contract — not deducted from the contract itself.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/1/20

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With the non-tender deadline on the horizon tomorrow, expect quite a few players to agree to contracts for the 2021 season, avoiding arbitration in advance. In many (but not all) cases, these deals — referred to as “pre-tender” deals because they fall prior to the deadline — will fall shy of expectations and projections. Teams will sometimes present borderline non-tender candidates with a “take it or leave it” style offer which will be accepted for fear of being non-tendered and sent out into an uncertain market. Speculatively, such deals could increase in 2020 due to the economic uncertainty sweeping through the game, although there are also widespread expectations of record non-tender numbers.

You can track all of the arbitration and non-tender activity here, and we’ll also run through today’s smaller-scale pre-tender deals in this post.  You can also check out Matt Swartz’s arbitration salary projections here.

Latest Agreements

  • Athletics second baseman Tony Kemp will get $1.05MM over one year, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle relays.
  • The Rockies announced that they have re-signed righty Jairo Diaz to a one-year pact. It’s worth $1.1MM, Feinsand tweets.
  • The Phillies and righty reliever Seranthony Dominguez have a one-year, $727,500 deal, according to Feinsand. Dominguez underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of June, so he might not pitch at all in 2021.
  • The Athletics and utility player Chad Pinder reached a one-year, $2.275MM deal, per Nightengale. Pinder has two seasons of team control left.
  • The Orioles and catcher Pedro Severino agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.825MM, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  There was some speculation that Severino could be a non-tender candidate, though he has posted pretty decent numbers over two seasons as Baltimore’s primary catcher.  Severino is controllable through the 2023 season.
  • The Nationals and right-hander Joe Ross agreed to a one-year, $1.5MM contract, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  This is a match of the salary Ross and the Nats had agreed on for the 2020 season, but Ross decided to opt out back in June.  This was Ross’ third year of arbitration eligibility, and is now expected to return and compete for a job in Washington’s rotation in 2021.
  • The Royals agreed to one-year deals with righties Jesse Hahn and Jakob Junis and outfielder Franchy Cordero, according to Feinsand and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links).  Hahn signed for $1.75MM in guaranteed money with another $350K available in incentives.  Junis will rake in $1.7MM. Cordero will earn $800K in his first arbitration-eligible year.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Athletics and righty Burch Smith agreed to a one-year deal worth $705K, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.  The 30-year-old Smith allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk with 13 strikeouts in 12 2/3 frames with the A’s in 2020. That was a solid showing for Smith to carry into his first trip through the arb process, though he carried a career 6.57 ERA in 135 1/3 frames into the 2020 season. The A’s can control Smith through 2023.
  • The Rockies agreed to a one-year, $1.2MM deal with catcher Elias Diaz, per Nightengale (Twitter link). The contract contains another $300K in available incentives.  The 30-year-old looked like a clear non-tender candidate after posting an ugly .235/.288/.353 slash with lackluster framing marks and just a 1-for-8 effort in throwing out base thieves, but the Rockies must remain hopeful he can return to his 2018 level of performance. Diaz is controllable through the 2022 season via arbitration.
  • Right-hander Jacob Barnes and the Mets agreed to a one-year deal worth $750K, Nightengale tweets. Barnes, claimed off waivers back in October, was a quality reliever in Milwaukee from 2016-18 but has seen his results crater over the past two seasons. From 2019-20, he’s posted a 6.75 ERA over 50 2/3 innings. Barnes has averaged 10 strikeouts per nine frames in that time but also averaged 4.6 walks and 1.42 homers as well. Barnes is controllable through 2022.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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Even the game’s largest Covid-19 outbreak couldn’t derail the Marlins’ Cinderella season, as the Fish surprised the league with a 31-29 record and went on to topple the Cubs in the Wild Card round of this year’s expanded postseason format. With a slew of young talent bubbling up to the Majors, newly minted general manager Kim Ng will be aiming to bring the club back to October baseball in 2021.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Much of the Marlins’ surprising success in 2020 can be attributed to the team’s enviable collection of young pitching. Right-handers Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Sixto Sanchez each gave strong performances, with Alcantara and Lopez soaking up the most innings. Alcantara, Lopez and Hernandez are all locked into next year’s rotation, manager Don Mattingly said after the Marlins’ postseason run ended. Sanchez’s omission from the mix may surprise some, given his strong rookie effort, although he’ll surely have the opportunity to cement his spot in Spring Training.

Behind that quartet of righties is a mix of intriguing but still unproven arms. Righty Jordan Yamamoto had some success in 2019 but was clobbered in 2020. Prospects Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers all struggled in small samples of work as well. Veteran righty Jose Urena is out of the mix after yesterday’s DFA, although that’s hardly a surprise given that he stood out as one of the game’s likelier non-tender candidates. The Marlins have some intriguing yet-to-debut options (e.g. Edward Cabrera), but their pitching depth was thinned out a bit when they sent Caleb Smith and Humberto Mejia to the Diamondbacks in this August’s Starling Marte trade.

Beyond Alcantara and Lopez, Marlins starters have at best limited track records of MLB success. Even Hernandez, whom Mattingly proclaimed as a member of the rotation, pitched just 25 2/3 solid innings in 2020; in 2018-19, he posted an ERA north of 5.00. The youth and years of team control are obviously appealing, but the Marlins would still be well served to bring in a veteran both to help mentor the staff and to provide some stable innings. Names like Rick Porcello, Martin Perez and south Florida native Mike Fiers are all available if the team’s priority is dependable innings, and there are plenty of interesting names looking for bouncebacks from injured seasons (e.g. James Paxton, Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber).

With Kintzler and Boxberger both returning to the market, the Marlins will have some work to do to round out their bullpen. Miami could’ve retained Kintzler at a seemingly reasonable $4MM price point, but there were quite a few solid reliever options declined this year. Perhaps the hope is that recently acquired righty Adam Cimber, another ground-ball specialist, can provide similar production at a fraction of the rate. Miami picked him up from the Indians in exchange for cash, and he’s projected to earn $800K via arbitration. Even with Cimber aboard, it’s likely that the Marlins will talk to Kintzler about coming back at a lower price than his option would have guaranteed.

More intriguing bullpen options will become available after the non-tender deadline. The Marlins seem likely to again look for affordable veteran help to complement their in-house options, particularly with an unsettled mix at the back of the ’pen. Two offseasons ago, the Marlins did quite well on a low-cost, one-year deal with Sergio Romo. Last winter, it was Kintzler. It seems reasonable to expect a similar approach this time around, even with a new GM at the helm.

Turning to the offense, the Marlins have plenty of intriguing youngsters on the cusp of Major League readiness, but struggles behind the plate could lead the club to look outside the organization for upgrades. Jorge Alfaro was a key piece of the trade that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia — along with the aforementioned Sanchez — but he’s yet to solidify himself as the team’s long-term replacement for Realmuto. In two years as a Marlin, Alfaro has a .256/.306/.410 batting line, and both his offense and defense took marked steps back in 2020. By the time the playoffs rolled around, Miami was starting the light-hitting Chad Wallach over Alfaro.

Miami doesn’t figure to spend particularly aggressively in free agency. A Realmuto reunion is off the table, but any of the market’s second-tier options — James McCann and Yadier Molina headline the group — could seemingly fit into the budget for a team whose current payroll projection check in shy of $60MM now that Urena no longer factors into the mix. Additional trades or non-tenders could yet lower that mark.

The trade market could offer myriad other possibilities. Many Marlins decision-makers have Yankees roots and are familiar with Gary Sanchez. There’s bound to be speculation about the Cubs moving Willson Contreras as they look to cut costs. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explored the reasons that San Diego might move Francisco Mejia. The Blue Jays have a glut of catchers on their 40-man roster.

Looking up and down the rest of the lineup, the needs aren’t as palpable. The outfield should be more or less set with Corey Dickerson’s contract locking him into left field and Starling Marte set to return as the primary center fielder. Garrett Cooper hit well in 2020, but if he falters in right field, the Marlins are rife with corner-outfield alternatives; any of Jon Berti, Monte Harrison, Harold Ramirez, Magneuris Sierra, Jesus Sanchez or Lewis Brinson could earn an increased role there.

If somehow that entire bunch struggles, the club could always consider moving third baseman Brian Anderson back to right field. Between Berti, Miguel Rojas, Isan Diaz and Jazz Chisholm, the Fish should be able to cover third base, shortstop and second base even if Anderson is needed in the outfield. It’s possible the Marlins still bring in a versatile veteran infielder, if only so they have the option of allowing both Diaz and Chisholm to continue to develop in Triple-A without compromising their bench mix.

Over at first base, the Marlins got a big rebound performance out of Jesus Aguilar and will surely tender him a contract after he raked at a .277/.352/.457 clip with eight long balls in 216 trips to the dish. Should he sustain an injury or see his 2019 struggles recur, the Marlins could turn things over to Cooper or dip into the farm and call on prospect Lewin Diaz to get an earnest look at first base.

Given the wealth of young options in both the infield and the outfield, a major addition at any position other than catcher seems unlikely. Minor league depth signings and a veteran bench piece to add to either the infield or outfield mix — possibly both, if the target is someone like old friend Enrique Hernandez — make plenty of sense for the Marlins. However, this is a club whose collection of position players simply needs some time to audition for the front office.

The pitching side of things presents a bit more of an opportunity for some veteran pickups, but again, there are several key young players in place and others who are ready for a chance to show they belong in the conversation as long-term building blocks.

Had there been a traditional season with expected revenue streams and ample time for said young players to get their feet wet in the Majors and upper minors, the Marlins’ outlook might be a bit different. They’d have a better sense of who is and who isn’t vital to their long-term competitiveness and would perhaps have a better idea of where they need to spend in the long run. Given that they remarkably don’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the books for the 2022 season, the Marlins might have been considered a dark horse to again splash around with some notable free-agent spending.

That doesn’t seem as likely now with a year of zero revenue and with so many young questions to be answered. Still, that blank slate on the 2022 payroll is worth bearing in mind both as the 2021 trade deadline approaches and as next offseason looms. If the organization’s younger options aren’t cutting it, this is a team with such a wide-open financial outlay that they could take on salary either via trade or (next winter) free agency. The Fish have reached the point where they’ll look to rise from NL East cellar dweller to a legitimate threat in what could be the game’s most competitive division race for several years to come.

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