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Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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Even the game’s largest Covid-19 outbreak couldn’t derail the Marlins’ Cinderella season, as the Fish surprised the league with a 31-29 record and went on to topple the Cubs in the Wild Card round of this year’s expanded postseason format. With a slew of young talent bubbling up to the Majors, newly minted general manager Kim Ng will be aiming to bring the club back to October baseball in 2021.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Much of the Marlins’ surprising success in 2020 can be attributed to the team’s enviable collection of young pitching. Right-handers Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Sixto Sanchez each gave strong performances, with Alcantara and Lopez soaking up the most innings. Alcantara, Lopez and Hernandez are all locked into next year’s rotation, manager Don Mattingly said after the Marlins’ postseason run ended. Sanchez’s omission from the mix may surprise some, given his strong rookie effort, although he’ll surely have the opportunity to cement his spot in Spring Training.

Behind that quartet of righties is a mix of intriguing but still unproven arms. Righty Jordan Yamamoto had some success in 2019 but was clobbered in 2020. Prospects Nick Neidert, Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rogers all struggled in small samples of work as well. Veteran righty Jose Urena is out of the mix after yesterday’s DFA, although that’s hardly a surprise given that he stood out as one of the game’s likelier non-tender candidates. The Marlins have some intriguing yet-to-debut options (e.g. Edward Cabrera), but their pitching depth was thinned out a bit when they sent Caleb Smith and Humberto Mejia to the Diamondbacks in this August’s Starling Marte trade.

Beyond Alcantara and Lopez, Marlins starters have at best limited track records of MLB success. Even Hernandez, whom Mattingly proclaimed as a member of the rotation, pitched just 25 2/3 solid innings in 2020; in 2018-19, he posted an ERA north of 5.00. The youth and years of team control are obviously appealing, but the Marlins would still be well served to bring in a veteran both to help mentor the staff and to provide some stable innings. Names like Rick Porcello, Martin Perez and south Florida native Mike Fiers are all available if the team’s priority is dependable innings, and there are plenty of interesting names looking for bouncebacks from injured seasons (e.g. James Paxton, Jose Quintana, Corey Kluber).

With Kintzler and Boxberger both returning to the market, the Marlins will have some work to do to round out their bullpen. Miami could’ve retained Kintzler at a seemingly reasonable $4MM price point, but there were quite a few solid reliever options declined this year. Perhaps the hope is that recently acquired righty Adam Cimber, another ground-ball specialist, can provide similar production at a fraction of the rate. Miami picked him up from the Indians in exchange for cash, and he’s projected to earn $800K via arbitration. Even with Cimber aboard, it’s likely that the Marlins will talk to Kintzler about coming back at a lower price than his option would have guaranteed.

More intriguing bullpen options will become available after the non-tender deadline. The Marlins seem likely to again look for affordable veteran help to complement their in-house options, particularly with an unsettled mix at the back of the ’pen. Two offseasons ago, the Marlins did quite well on a low-cost, one-year deal with Sergio Romo. Last winter, it was Kintzler. It seems reasonable to expect a similar approach this time around, even with a new GM at the helm.

Turning to the offense, the Marlins have plenty of intriguing youngsters on the cusp of Major League readiness, but struggles behind the plate could lead the club to look outside the organization for upgrades. Jorge Alfaro was a key piece of the trade that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia — along with the aforementioned Sanchez — but he’s yet to solidify himself as the team’s long-term replacement for Realmuto. In two years as a Marlin, Alfaro has a .256/.306/.410 batting line, and both his offense and defense took marked steps back in 2020. By the time the playoffs rolled around, Miami was starting the light-hitting Chad Wallach over Alfaro.

Miami doesn’t figure to spend particularly aggressively in free agency. A Realmuto reunion is off the table, but any of the market’s second-tier options — James McCann and Yadier Molina headline the group — could seemingly fit into the budget for a team whose current payroll projection check in shy of $60MM now that Urena no longer factors into the mix. Additional trades or non-tenders could yet lower that mark.

The trade market could offer myriad other possibilities. Many Marlins decision-makers have Yankees roots and are familiar with Gary Sanchez. There’s bound to be speculation about the Cubs moving Willson Contreras as they look to cut costs. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explored the reasons that San Diego might move Francisco Mejia. The Blue Jays have a glut of catchers on their 40-man roster.

Looking up and down the rest of the lineup, the needs aren’t as palpable. The outfield should be more or less set with Corey Dickerson’s contract locking him into left field and Starling Marte set to return as the primary center fielder. Garrett Cooper hit well in 2020, but if he falters in right field, the Marlins are rife with corner-outfield alternatives; any of Jon Berti, Monte Harrison, Harold Ramirez, Magneuris Sierra, Jesus Sanchez or Lewis Brinson could earn an increased role there.

If somehow that entire bunch struggles, the club could always consider moving third baseman Brian Anderson back to right field. Between Berti, Miguel Rojas, Isan Diaz and Jazz Chisholm, the Fish should be able to cover third base, shortstop and second base even if Anderson is needed in the outfield. It’s possible the Marlins still bring in a versatile veteran infielder, if only so they have the option of allowing both Diaz and Chisholm to continue to develop in Triple-A without compromising their bench mix.

Over at first base, the Marlins got a big rebound performance out of Jesus Aguilar and will surely tender him a contract after he raked at a .277/.352/.457 clip with eight long balls in 216 trips to the dish. Should he sustain an injury or see his 2019 struggles recur, the Marlins could turn things over to Cooper or dip into the farm and call on prospect Lewin Diaz to get an earnest look at first base.

Given the wealth of young options in both the infield and the outfield, a major addition at any position other than catcher seems unlikely. Minor league depth signings and a veteran bench piece to add to either the infield or outfield mix — possibly both, if the target is someone like old friend Enrique Hernandez — make plenty of sense for the Marlins. However, this is a club whose collection of position players simply needs some time to audition for the front office.

The pitching side of things presents a bit more of an opportunity for some veteran pickups, but again, there are several key young players in place and others who are ready for a chance to show they belong in the conversation as long-term building blocks.

Had there been a traditional season with expected revenue streams and ample time for said young players to get their feet wet in the Majors and upper minors, the Marlins’ outlook might be a bit different. They’d have a better sense of who is and who isn’t vital to their long-term competitiveness and would perhaps have a better idea of where they need to spend in the long run. Given that they remarkably don’t have a single guaranteed dollar on the books for the 2022 season, the Marlins might have been considered a dark horse to again splash around with some notable free-agent spending.

That doesn’t seem as likely now with a year of zero revenue and with so many young questions to be answered. Still, that blank slate on the 2022 payroll is worth bearing in mind both as the 2021 trade deadline approaches and as next offseason looms. If the organization’s younger options aren’t cutting it, this is a team with such a wide-open financial outlay that they could take on salary either via trade or (next winter) free agency. The Fish have reached the point where they’ll look to rise from NL East cellar dweller to a legitimate threat in what could be the game’s most competitive division race for several years to come.

Tommy Pham Recovering From Wrist Surgery

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Padres outfielder Tommy Pham underwent surgery to repair a a tear of the triangular fibrocartilage complex in his left wrist at some point in the past couple of months, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. The specific timing of the procedure remains unclear. The Padres did not announce the surgery at the time it was performed.

Pham, according to Rosenthal, is already lifting weights but has yet to swing a bat since undergoing this latest surgery. He had surgery on the same wrist back in August after suffering a fractured hamate bone when he was hit by a pitch, and he also underwent surgery after a frightening incident in early October wherein Pham was stabbed in the lower back. The Padres announced at the time that Pham was in “good condition” following that surgery, and Pham now tells Rosenthal that this latest wrist procedure has improved his grip strength.

A third surgery and, more importantly, Pham’s recovery from said procedure are all the more noteworthy given that the 32-year-old outfielder is up for arbitration for the final time this offseason. The Padres have until tomorrow evening to determine whether they’ll tender a contract to Pham, whom they acquired alongside Jake Cronenworth last winter in a trade that sent Hunter Renfroe, top prospect Xavier Edwards and minor league infielder Esteban Quiroz to the Rays.

Pham struggled to the worst performance of his career in San Diego, slashing just .211/.312/.312 through 125 plate appearances. Of course, if the current wrist issue was bothering him during the season and impacting his grip strength, that would of course explain the downturn at the plate — at least to some extent. Pham’s track record is quite strong — evidenced by a .284/.381/.475 slash in 410 games from 2017-19 — and a healthy Pham would make for an appealing bounceback candidate.

However, that same track record calls Pham’s future with the Padres into question, as it’s also the reason that he earned $7.9MM in arbitration this past season. Pham could see a nominal uptick from that rate in the arb process, and he would at least be a candidate to simply repeat that salary in 2021. Given the uncertainty surrounding his health, however, he stands out as a potential non-tender candidate prior. If the Padres don’t plan to tender a contract to Pham, then they’ve likely already been shopping him in recent days and will continue to do so in the hours leading up to tomorrow night’s deadline.

St. Paul Saints To Become Twins’ Triple-A Affiliate

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The Twins are moving their Triple-A club about 1000 miles closer to home, as La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that they’ll soon announce the St. Paul Saints as their new top affiliate. The Saints had been a member of the independent American Association since 2005 and the now-defunct independent Northern League for 13 years prior to that.

It’s a huge boost for the Twins, who for the past 18 seasons have housed their Triple-A club with upstate New York’s Rochester Red Wings. (The Red Wings have already announced a new partnership with the Nationals.) Rather than a cross country flight to send a player on a minor league rehab assignment or to call up a fresh arm, the Twins will now be looking at a mere 11-mile drive from Minneapolis’ Target Field to St. Paul’s CHS Field. Their Triple-A club will benefit from modern facilities as well, given that CHS Field opened just over five years ago, in May 2015.

In addition to a vastly more convenient home for their Triple-A club, the Twins will also have a new Double-A home. Taylor Eldridge of the Wichita Eagle reported yesterday that the Wichita Wind Surge will no longer be the Triple-A affiliate for the Marlins and will instead drop down to the Double-A Texas League, serving as the Twins’ new affiliate. The Twins’ Double-A affiliate had previously been the Pensacola Blue Wahoos.

The move is sure to be a point of frustration for many in the city, as Eldridge details. The Wind Surge had yet to play a game in the newly constructed Riverfront Stadium, which had been built as part of a bid to bring Triple-A baseball back to Wichita for the first time in four decades.

Red Sox, Eduardo Rodriguez Avoid Arbitration

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The Red Sox and left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $8.3MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. It’s a repeat of the salary the two sides agreed to last winter, as is common with players who miss an entire season due to injury or, in Rodriguez’s case, medical concerns.

Rodriguez, 27, didn’t pitch in 2020 after testing positive for Covid-19 and eventually developing myocarditis — an inflammation of the heart muscle which rendered him unable to take the field. Rodriguez revealed in late November that he’s recovered and feels 100 percent again. After months of downtime, Rodriguez told MLB Network Radio that he’d been cleared to begin a throwing program and resume lifting weights in preparation for a return to the mound in 2021.

The Red Sox will have a difficult task in determining what type of workload Rodriguez should be earmarked for Rodriguez after not only a season away from the mound but a season lost to heart issues. Boston pitching coach Dave Bush spoke with reporters about the challenges of the situation back in September (link via MLB.com’s Ian Browne).

“For a guy like Eduardo Rodriguez, 200 innings last year and zero this year, we’re still figuring out exactly what we can expect from him next year and what’s a reasonable amount so he can pitch and be part of the rotation,” Bush said at the time. “But we also want to make sure that we don’t overdo it and don’t put him in danger at that point.”

The Red Sox badly missed Rodriguez in 2020, as a patchwork rotation often rounded out by journeymen limped to a 25th-ranked 5.34 ERA. A healthy Rodriguez is a key part of the starting staff in Boston, having pitched to a combined 3.92 ERA and 3.84 FIP with 9.7 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 from 2017-19 (470 1/3 innings).

This will be the final trip through the arbitration process for Rodriguez, who has five-plus years of Major League service and will be a free agent after the 2021 season.

Padres Release Luis Perdomo

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Right-hander Luis Perdomo has cleared release waivers and is now a free agent, the Padres announced this afternoon. He was designated for assignment when the team set its roster in advance of the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.

Perdomo, 27, is a former Rule 5 pickup himself. The Padres gave him 146 2/3 frames of work that Rule 5 season even as he was clobbered for a 5.71 ERA, as the team didn’t want to let go of a power sinker with such strong ground-ball tendencies. Things took a turn for the better in 2017 when Perdomo pitched a career-high 163 2/3 innings with a 4.67 ERA, a 4.40 FIP and a whopping 61.9 percent grounder rate out of the San Diego rotation. The Padres moved Perdomo to the bullpen in 2019 and saw him turn in 72 frames of 4.00 ERA/3.60 FIP ball with a diminished but still-strong 52.5 percent ground-ball rate.

Unfortunately for the organization and for Perdomo himself, he wasn’t able to sustain that output in 2020. The righty went down with a forearm injury in September after 17 1/3 ugly innings, and a month later the Padres announced that Perdomo had undergone Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the entire 2021 season as a result. It’s possible that the Padres bring Perdomo back on a minor league pact with an eye toward getting some value out of him in 2022, but he’ll have the opportunity to see if other clubs have similar interest.

Perdomo’s career 5.19 ERA isn’t much to look at, but he has a 4.44 FIP, 4.20 xFIP and a 57.3 percent ground-ball rate in 444 1/3 innings as Major Leaguer.

Royals Sign Michael A. Taylor

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The Royals announced Monday that they’ve signed outfielder Michael A. Taylor to a one-year, Major League contract. A client of the newly formed ALIGND Sports, Taylor will receive a $1.75MM base salary and another $1MM worth of available incentives, reports Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). In a corresponding move, the Royals have designated left-hander Foster Griffin for assignment.

Michael A. Taylor | Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Taylor, 29, was outrighted off the Nationals’ 40-man roster at season’s end and elected free agency. He would’ve been arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter, and the Nats opted to cut him loose early rather than pay him a raise on last year’s $3.325MM salary following a rough 2020 season.

Once ranked as one of the game’s premier outfield prospects, Taylor has struggled to find his footing as a consistent contributor in the big leagues. He looked to have broken out with a very solid age-26 campaign back in 2017, when he slashed .271/.320/.486 with 19 homers, 23 doubles, three triples, 17 steals and brilliant center-field defense. Taylor played in 118 games that season and was still worth about three wins above replacement per both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.

Unfortunately, Taylor wasn’t able to replicate his success in 2018 or at any point thereafter. He’s logged 581 plate appearances in the three years since that time — often being shuttled between Triple-A and the Majors — while posting a tepid .225/.284/.370 output at the plate. His blend of power and speed is plain to see, but Taylor’s overall offense is limited by a sky-high 31.7 percent strikeout rate to this point in his career.

Taylor has continued to post strong defensive marks, with a superlative 26 Defensive Runs Saved and a 12.1 UZR/150 in 1984 innings as a center fielder from 2017-20. Even if his bat doesn’t recover, he should give the Royals a high-quality defender capable of playing all three outfield positions. Per Statcast, Taylor ranked in the 91st percentile of all big leaguers in terms of outfield jumps, and his 82nd percentile sprint speed speaks to the value he can add on the bases.

Taylor joins a Royals roster that was already deep in outfield-capable players, though several of them are surely to be used in the infield at times (or even regularly) in 2021. Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier, for instance, can each be used on the right side of the diamond or in the outfield. Dozier could be the club’s long-term first baseman, though that’s probably somewhat dependent on any decisions the club makes with Ryan O’Hearn and/or Ryan McBroom this winter. Merrifield, meanwhile, can play all across the outfield and is a strong defender at second base as well.

Beyond that versatile pairing, the Royals have Franchy Cordero, Edward Olivares, Bubba Starling, Nick Heath and top prospect Khalil Lee all on the 40-man roster. Taylor could function as a simple platoon partner for the left-handed-hitting Cordero, or if he’s able to again approach his 2017 level of play, he could earn a bigger role in an outfield mix that is still largely undefined.

Griffin, 25, was the No. 28 overall pick by the Royals back in 2014. He made his MLB debut this past season and tossed 1 2/3 shutout innings, but Griffin underwent Tommy John surgery in August and will miss the 2021 season as a result.

Beyond that, Griffin has never developed into the pitching prospect the club had hoped at the time of that lofty selection. He posted solid ERAs through the lower minors even while walking more than 3.5 hitters per nine frames, but Griffin’s results bottomed out as he further climbed the organizational ladder. He pitched to an ERA north of 5.00 in 152 2/3 frames of Double-A ball in 2018 and saw that mark increase during his 2019 stint in Triple-A Omaha.

The Royals will have a week to trade Griffin, release him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. Because he’s a former first-round lefty with multiple minor league options remaining, another club could place a speculative claim, but it’d be tough to carry him on the roster for the remainder of the offseason knowing he won’t be able to contribute at all next season while he rehabs.

Major League Baseball Announces Formation Of MLB Draft League

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Major League Baseball on Monday announced that it has teamed with Prep Baseball Report to form the MLB Draft League — a new summer league that will allow the nation’s top draft-eligible players to compete in a 68-game season beginning next year. The league will be headed up by former MLB scout Kerrick Jackson, who resigned from his post as the head coach at Southern University to take this newly created position.

Five teams, all of them former minor league affiliates, have been brought aboard as the founding five clubs in the league: the Mahoning Valley Scrappers, the State College Spikes, the Trenton Thunder, the West Virginia Black Bears and the Williamsport Crosscutters. Talks with a sixth team are in the works, per the league’s press release, with an announcement hopefully coming in the near future.

The Draft League is made possible by MLB’s previous decision to push the annual amateur draft back from early June to instead coincide with the MLB All-Star break in mid-July. Per today’s announcement, the 68-game schedule will include an annual All-Star break centered around the MLB draft, so it seems as though the idea is for play to continue once these players have been drafted. That, conceivably, could help to offset some the elimination of short-season Class-A leagues. Big league scouts will be able to watch the league in person, and the MLB adds that they’ll also be able to evaluate participants via “state-of-the-art scouting technology.”

Jackson appeared on MLB Network this morning to discuss the league and clarify some of the timing and scheduling aspects (video link). The league will commence in early June and run into August. MLB’s goal will be to attract as much top draft-eligible talent as possible, though Jackson acknowledged that some programs which qualify for postseason play will push back against sending their players to participate in the Draft League.

There are some murky areas that have yet to be defined in full. It’s not clear, for instance, whether every MLB team will want its draft signees to continue playing in the league, although that ostensibly could help to offset the loss of some Short-Season Class-A leagues. Jackson alludes to the fact that the league expects some players to pull out of the league after being drafted, noting that “after the draft, we’ll be able to take some kids — some of the seniors and some other guys looking to get those free-agent opportunities and put them in that mix.”

The initial hope is for a six-team league with 30-man rosters, per Jackson, creating 180 roster spots in the league’s first iteration. Depending on how things progress down the line, MLB may look to eventually install additional teams in the league. For the time being, it doesn’t appear as though there will be separation of college and high school talent.

Suffice it to say there are some logistics that need to be sorted out or at least clarified, but the broader takeaway is that the inception of the Draft League will ideally give teams and fans a new level of access to prospects in the days and weeks leading up to the draft. Doing so should create greater marketing opportunities and, hopefully for MLB, draw some extra eyes and attention for the draft itself. The Major League Baseball Draft has never been seen as an event on par with the NBA or NFL drafts, after all. However, there’s no getting around the fundamental difference that prospects selected in those other sports’ drafts will frequently jump directly onto the active roster of their new clubs, while virtually every player selected in the MLB draft is at least a couple of years from MLB readiness.

Chris Young Withdraws From Mets’ GM Search

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Former big league pitcher Chris Young, who interviewed last week for the Mets’ GM vacancy, has now withdrawn his name from consideration, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. Sherman suggests that Young was indeed intrigued by the position but prefers not to move his family from Dallas to New York at this time.

Young, 41, called it quits in 2017 after a 13-year career on the mound and quickly went to work for Major League Baseball. He was first appointed as the league’s vice president of on-field operations, initiatives and strategy, wherein he oversaw “the application of playing rules and regulations, on-field standards and discipline, pace of play and other special projects.” When MLB chief baseball officer Joe Torre moved into an advisory role in early 2020, Young added “senior” to his title and took on a larger slate of responsibilities within the same realm.

There’s little clarity about the Mets’ ongoing front office search at this point. Young and former Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill were the two known candidates to have interviewed prior to today’s report. However, it’s not clear whether Hill was interviewing for the GM post or for the president of baseball operations vacancy that will now not be filled. Incoming president Sandy Alderson, who is returning after two years away from the team, indicated last week that he’d shifted gears and would now focus on hiring only a GM, rather than a president of baseball ops. New owner Steve Cohen acknowledged last week that he’s had some difficulty getting candidates in the door, as other clubs have denied permission to interview candidates from within their organizational ranks.

Cubs Promote Craig Breslow To Assistant General Manager

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The Cubs announced a series of promotions in their baseball operations department Monday, with former big leaguer reliever Craig Breslow being elevated to assistant general manager. He joins Randy Bush (another former big leaguer) and Jeff Greenberg, who was promoted to AGM status earlier this season, in that role. Breslow has also been named the organization’s vice president of pitching.

This will be the 40-year-old Breslow’s third full season in the Cubs’ front office. He retired after the 2017 season and joined the Cubs as their director of strategic initiatives prior to the 2019 season. He spent the 2020 season as the Cubs’ director of pitching and as a special assistant to president of baseball ops Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer. Greenberg has been with the Cubs since 2012, with prior titles including director of baseball operations and, more recently, director of pro scouting. With Epstein stepping away and Hoyer ascending to president of baseball ops, Breslow and Greenberg will take on a larger role in the front office.

Notably, none of today’s promotions include an appointment to general manager. Hoyer said at last week’s press conference that he expected to hire a new GM from outside the organization, emphasizing the importance of allowing for new voices, ideas and perspectives to complement the continuity elsewhere in the front office.

Some notables from the Cubs’ many other front-office promotions: Chris Moore was named vice president of research and development; Matt Dorey was named vice president of player development; Louie Eljaua was named vice president of international scouting; and Alex Suarez was named senior director of international player development and operations.

At Least Six Teams Showing Interest In James McCann

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Yadier Molina has drawn the most headlines among catchers early in free agency, in part due to the willingness of both him and his agent to go on-record to discuss the veteran’s market. However, James McCann is drawing interest from a similar collection of teams, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), with the Yankees, Mets, Cardinals, Angels and incumbent White Sox among the clubs to express some interest in the free-agent backstop. The Phillies would have interest in the event that J.T. Realmuto signs elsewhere, Heyman adds.

Given that each of these clubs, with the exception of the White Sox and Phillies, has already expressed interest in Molina, it’s not much of a surprise that they’d also at least gauge McCann’s asking price. There’s been speculation about the Yankees moving on from Gary Sanchez for months, while the Mets currently lack a starting-caliber backstop on their roster. The Angels got a big year out of Max Stassi in 2020, but that was obviously a rather limited sample and Stassi’s prior track record is less impressive.

The Cardinals may raise some eyebrows, given their interest in retaining Molina, but it’s only logical that with Molina exploring other options they’d do the same. Should Molina get the two-year deal he’s seeking from another club, the Cards could pivot to McCann or simply remain in-house and turn the keys over to 26-year-old Andrew Knizner.

As for the White Sox, their interest in keeping McCann is well known, but it’s unlikely to result in a deal. The ChiSox signed Yasmani Grandal to a franchise-record four-year, $73MM contract last winter, and with three years remaining on that arrangement there’s simply no room for McCann to get everyday at-bats. McCann spoke earlier this offseason about his free agency, telling NBC Sports Chicago’s Chuck Garfien that he feels he’s earned the opportunity to be a team’s starting catcher. The White Sox can’t offer that with Grandal under contract.

It’s hard to dispute McCann’s feelings after a pair of terrific seasons with the South Siders. While he was non-tendered by the Tigers after a dismal 2018 campaign, McCann has more than bounced back in Chicago; he’s taken his game to new heights. McCann was a bit shy of a league-average bat as Detroit’s primary catcher in 2017, but he’s broken out with a .276/.334/.474 batting line in 587 plate appearances with the White Sox (116 wRC+).

He’s made strides in terms of hard-hit rate and exit velocity, supporting that offensive breakout, and McCann also improved defensively quite a bit this past season. He’s always been adept at controlling runners (career 35.8 percent caught-stealing rate), but McCann prioritized improving his pitch-framing this past offseason, and the results were strong. Statcast reflects that McCann went from one of the worst catchers in the game at framing pitches on the bottom of the zone to one of the game’s best. It’s a small sample, to be sure, but it’d be a reach to suggest that McCann simply lucked his way from getting 44.8 percent of such pitches called all the way up to 61.8 percent.

The Phillies probably aren’t the only club who view McCann as a “Plan B” to Realmuto, but there also figure to be teams that know they cannot afford Realmuto and are thus willing to act more quickly. McCann and his agents will have to determine whether they’re better served taking one of those early offers or holding out until Realmuto is off the market. The latter route could lead to increased interest, but it’s also possible some teams that are willing to act now will have already filled their need at catcher or spent the majority of their offseason budget by that point.

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