Padres, Royals Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar
The Padres and Royals are among the teams showing interest in free-agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets the same, adding that the Padres “are trying” to bring Profar back to the organization. It’s sensible that the Padres want him back; he was solid there in 2020 and GM A.J. Preller was an assistant GM with the Rangers during Profar’s developmental years. Royals GM Dayton Moore recently expressed interest in a left-handed bat who can handle third base or the outfield, and the switch-hitting Profar fits that mold.
Profar’s end-of-season numbers certainly look appealing. The 27-year-old (28 in February) slashed .278/.343/.428 with seven homers, six doubles and seven steals through 202 plate appearances, adding in a career-low 13.9 percent strikeout rate. It’s the second time in three seasons that Profar rated as an above-average hitter per both OPS+ and wRC+.
That said, there’s also reason for some caution with regard to Profar’s production. Things can change quickly in a 60-game, 200-plate appearance sample, and that was certainly the case in this instance. Through the first 30 games and 111 plate appearances of the 2020 season, Profar posted a .181/.291/.319 slash with four home runs and one double. He had some miserable batted-ball luck in that time (.171 BABIP), but Profar’s season exemplifies the difficulty of how to evaluate players coming off this year’s 60-game slate; for half the year he was among the worst hitters in MLB, and for his final 91 plate appearances he was among the game’s best (albeit with a whopping .423 BABIP in that time as the pendulum swung the other direction).
Profar is lacking in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate, but his low strikeout rate and a passable walk rate still lead metrics like Statcast’s expected batting average (xBA) and expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) to peg him as a slightly above-average hitter based on the quality and regularity of contact made.
Defensively, Profar has been moved off second base twice in the past two seasons — first in Oakland and then in San Diego (although the move in San Diego was perhaps more about Jake Cronenworth‘s emergence as it was Profar’s struggles). Profar developed a case of the yips while serving as Oakland’s regular second baseman early in 2019, at one point making eight errors in a span of 25 games. He righted the ship but was still dinged hard by defensive metrics: -15 Defensive Runs Saved and -5 Outs Above Average. His marks in 2020 were better, and it’s only fair to point out that those same metrics suggest Profar was anywhere from a passable to very good left fielder for the Padres in 2020.
Taken in totality, Profar’s last three seasons have produced a league-average hitter who is capable of playing three infield positions, but perhaps none of them especially well, with an encouraging but small sample of work in left field. He’s an efficient base stealer (26-for-28) but by no means a burner, as Statcast puts his average sprint speed right around the 50th percentile throughout the league. He’s toward the bottom of the league in hard contact but toward the top of the league in terms of putting the ball in play.
Profar is a useful player as is, but the allure of his former prospect status and his youth surely hold appeal to other clubs. He’ll play all of next season at 28, and while it was close to a decade ago, Profar was the consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into the 2013 season, topping the lists from Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus alike. He’s had two shoulder surgeries since that time, however, which effectively cost him two full years of development. He was also quite arguably rushed to the Majors in the first place, debuting as a 19-year-old for a win-now Rangers club back in 2012.
There’s still an air of upside surrounding Profar because of that status and his age, even if his batted-ball profile isn’t a particularly encouraging one. The question for Profar may be one of whether to take a one-year deal in hopes of a cashing in on a strong 2021 season or taking a multi-year pact at an annual value that would look like a bargain if he does indeed elevate his game in 2021. Those decisions will be weighed by his camp as he continues to field offers, although the Royals have been surprisingly aggressive with players they identify as targets, which would seemingly bode well for Profar’s market.
Blue Jays, Mets Seen As Strongest Suitors For George Springer
It’s been a slow-moving market for all of the game’s top free agents, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan shines some light on where things stand with George Springer, reporting that the Blue Jays and Mets are generally viewed as the two strongest possibilities for the longtime Astros slugger.
Newly hired Mets general manager Jared Porter plainly acknowledged in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM last week that Springer is “going to be part of the process” as they evaluate options on the high end of both the free-agent and trade markets (Twitter link, with audio). As one would expect, Porter didn’t tip his hand as to anything more specific, but MLB.com’s Jon Morosi did write recently that the Mets are “focused” on Springer at the moment.
In some ways, it’s not particularly surprising to see. The Mets and Jays are widely seen as the two teams most willing to spend this winter, and both could use an impact center fielder. Other teams who are seen as potentially active clubs have reason not to aggressively pursue Springer.
Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has suggested his team will focus on pitching and look at more “complementary” hitters. The Yankees are focused on DJ LeMahieu, and their outfield is crowded as is. The Red Sox’ most pressing need is in the rotation, given the uncertainty around the health of their veteran starters. The Twins are focused on Nelson Cruz and their pitching staff. The Braves have eschewed this type of long-term deal under GM Alex Anthopoulos and may be more apt to retain Marcell Ozuna if they do make an uncharacteristic outfield splash. The White Sox have already signed Adam Eaton. Houston is an obvious fit, but an extension between the two sides never came together and the price surely hasn’t come down now that Springer has the benefit of open-market bidding for his services.
Free agency is an ever-fluid situation, as various factors can rapidly change a player’s market. A team could trade a current outfielder or lose someone to injury. An owner not expected to spend lavishly could have a change of heart or be swayed by a direct meeting with Springer’s representatives. However, Passan writes that as things stand right now, executives from other clubs view the Springer market as a two-horse race between the Jays and Mets.
The Mets have already been aggressive early, signing James McCann (four years, $40.6MM) and Trevor May (two years, $15.5MM) to early deals that bolster the club while still leaving Porter and president Sandy Alderson ample payroll space. The Mets currently owe just shy of $95MM to a combined 10 players, though they have just as many yet-unsigned arbitration-eligible players to whom they tendered contracts. Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard and Edwin Diaz headline that group, but most of the group is in line for relatively small-scale salaries. It’s be a surprise if, after their arb work was completed, the current iteration of the Mets roster exceeded a $150MM payroll by much.
The financial outlook in Toronto is even cleaner. Toronto owes about $57.5MM to seven players in addition to forthcoming arbitration raises for two players: Ross Stripling and Teoscar Hernandez. They only have $35MM in guaranteed salaries on the 2022 books, with Tanner Roark, Robbie Ray, Shun Yamaguchi and Rafael Dolis set to come off the books. Signing Springer would likely necessitate a move sending Randal Grichuk elsewhere, and while his remaining three years and $28MM is an overpay, it’s not so glaring that the Jays couldn’t reasonably expect to find a creative solution.
Yankees, Nestor Cortes Jr. Agree To Minor League Deal
Left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. is headed back to the Yankees organization, as the pitcher himself revealed last week on Instagram. The team hasn’t formally announced the move, which is surely a minor league pact. “I’m extremely excited to announce I will be a Yankee again,” Cortes wrote. “I’m truly lucky to have this opportunity. It’s time to work to get up there.”
Cortes, who recently turned 26, was a 36th-round pick by the Yankees back in 2013 and has spent parts of the past three seasons in the big leagues. The Orioles selected him in the Rule 5 Draft back in 2017 and gave him his big league debut during the 2018 season. However, the O’s cut him loose after just 4 2/3 frames and returned him to the Yankees.
In 2019, Cortes made his Yankees debut, appearing in 33 Major League games but struggling to the tune of a 5.67 ERA and 5.57 FIP. He averaged better than a strikeout per inning (9.3 K/9) but was too prone to walks (3.8 BB/9) and especially to home runs (2.2 HR/9) to have much success. It was more of the same with the Mariners in 2020, when Cortes was tagged 13 earned runs and a staggering six home runs in just 7 2/3 innings.
All in all, Cortes has a grisly 6.72 ERA in 79 Major League frames, but he’s been excellent in Triple-A, with a 3.11 ERA and a 199-to-62 K/BB ratio in 205 1/3 innings. He’s been sharp thus far in the Dominican Winter League as well, holding opponents to five runs on 11 hits and five walks with 21 strikeouts through 15 2/3 innings.
Big league struggles notwithstanding, three different big league teams have been intrigued enough by Cortes and his potential to give him a look over the past three seasons. He’ll surely have to earn his way onto the roster with a big spring showing or perhaps some early success in Triple-A, but the Yankees are in need of pitching depth and Cortes provides that both in the rotation and the bullpen.
Twins Notes: Middle Infield, Jeffers, Romero
The Twins are receiving trade interest both in their upper-level middle infield prospects and in controllable players on their big league roster, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That’s not exactly earth-shattering news, given the manner in which teams covet affordable long-term pieces — particularly this offseason. Rosenthal still outlines a possibility of Minnesota moving someone like second baseman Luis Arraez in order to slide Jorge Polanco over to second base. Doing so could come as part of a trade package for a high-end shortstop (e.g. Trevor Story) or help in the rotation, with a free-agent shortstop then being brought in as a bridge to top prospect Royce Lewis.
We’ve written about the possibility of the Twins making middle-infield moves despite a clear hole here at MLBTR, and from my vantage point it doesn’t seem the Twins would even need to move Arraez to justify bringing in a shortstop upgrade if they wish. Polanco has never been a strong defensive shortstop, even prior to a pair of ankle surgeries, and would seem perfectly well suited to play the same super-utility role that was recently held by departing free agent Marwin Gonzalez. There are myriad avenues they could take, but a move at shortstop doesn’t seem outlandish for the Twins, even with Polanco in tow. He’s set to earn $4.33MM in 2021, $5MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023 before the Twins have a pair of club options valued at $10.5MM and $12MM.
More out of Minneapolis/St. Paul…
- The Twins announced earlier this week that catcher Ryan Jeffers underwent an offseason procedure to remove loose bodies from his right elbow. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the operation isn’t expected to delay Jeffers’ availability for the 2021 season, though, with manager Rocco Baldelli telling Miller and others that Jeffers is already nearly back up to speed. Jeffers, 23, jumped to the Majors to fill in for an injured Mitch Garver in 2020 and not only held his own but may have even cemented his spot on the 2021 roster. In 26 games, the 2018 second-rounder took 62 plate appearances and posted a .273/.355/.436 slash with three homers. Jeffers did skip Triple-A entirely due to the lack of a minor league season, though, so the Twins could conceivably add a veteran backup if the hope is to get him a bit more seasoning. Doing so would also afford Jeffers everyday reps rather than have him serve in a more limited role behind Garver.
- Minnesota’s decision to release Fernando Romero yesterday (and Romero quickly signing with the Yokohama BayStars) was examined by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, who reports that Romero didn’t draw much trade attention from MLB teams. The Twins simply weren’t certain whether Romero would be able to pitch in the United States after visa issues prevented him from entering the country in 2020, and as president of baseball ops Derek Falvey said, “it felt like given all the circumstances around this year and going forward, plus his desired pursuit of Japan, it kind of felt like the best combination.”
Latest Rumblings On Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer
The Padres are among the clubs with interest in Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, Fansided’s Robert Murray reports, although there’s no indication that the two sides have engaged in meaningful discussions to this point.
Gray’s name has persistently popped up in the rumor mill this winter, and while Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has sought to downplay Gray chatter as a matter of performing due diligence, it’s hard not to place some extra stock in the Gray rumblings amid the backdrop of several cost-cutting moves out of Cincinnati. The Reds surprisingly non-tendered right-hander Archie Bradley just months after acquiring him in a deadline trade, despite the fact that he pitched well for them and was due a raise on a team-friendly $4.1MM salary. They also cut loose their other primary deadline pickup, outfielder Brian Goodwin, and catcher Curt Casali. Goodwin had struggled in Cincinnati, but Casali turned in a solid 2020 season.
Perhaps most surprising was the trade that sent closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels in exchange for righty Noe Ramirez and minor league infielder Leo Rivas. It was a marginal return, at best, on a quality late-inning reliever whose $9.125MM salary isn’t exactly exorbitant. Following both the Bradley non-tender and the Iglesias trade, Krall has spoken of reallocating those resources. He did so again this week in an appearance on MLB Network’s MLB Now (video link):
“I think we’ve done some things to reallocate our resources within the organization, and we’re just trying to figure out what’s the best thing we can do for our organization moving forward,” said Krall.
Some Reds fans may hope to see the team utilize those savings for a run at retaining Trevor Bauer, but that may not be likely. In that MLB Now spot, Krall discussed “adding pitching depth, whether it’s rotation depth with the loss of Trevor Bauer.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added further context today, tweeting that the Reds consider Bauer to be beyond their price range and adding that Bauer “will be pitching elsewhere” in 2021. It obviously takes just one change of heart from ownership to push for a deal to come together, but that’s a rather bleak characterization of where things stand with regard to their chances of retaining the reigning NL Cy Young winner.
Turning back to Gray, the match between the Reds and Padres is a sensible one on paper but perhaps not so much in practice. The Friars thought they were acquiring multiple years of a high-end rotation option when picking up Mike Clevinger prior to the trade deadline, but he’s now sidelined for all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery.
That leaves a hole at the top of the rotation, but Murray suggests that even Gray’s $10MM salary might be outside San Diego’s comfort zone at this point. Surely, that’s all the more true given that they’d have to trade away considerable young talent to pry Gray away; even if the Reds are seeking to cut costs, it’s hard to imagine them taking a weak return on Gray when the market for starting pitching has generally been a healthy one to this point.
The Padres already owe $86.05MM to the combination of Manny Machado, Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen, Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm and Clevinger. They still owe arbitration raises to Tommy Pham, Zach Davies, Dinelson Lamet, Emilio Pagan and Dan Altavilla.
For a Padres club intent on paring back last year’s $150MM payroll to some extent, taking on $10MM in salary might not work unless other payroll can be jettisoned elsewhere. And as Murray points out, there would probably be questions about reuniting Gray with pitching coach Larry Rothschild, who coached Gray during an unsuccessful tenure in the Bronx.
Blue Jays Sign Richard Urena To Minor League Deal
Infielder Richard Urena is returning to the Blue Jays on a minor league contract, per a club announcement. He’ll be invited to Major League Spring Training. Toronto also confirmed its previously reported minor league pacts with outfielder Forrest Wall and corner infielder Tyler White. They’ll both be in camp this spring as well.
Urena, 24, spent parts of the 2017-19 seasons with the Blue Jays, appearing in a total of 91 games and hitting .253/.300/.336 through 263 trips to the plate. A versatile defender with a solid defensive reputation as a prospect and a strong throwing arm, Urena logged time at shortstop (394 innings), second base (173 innings) and third base (53 innings) as a member of the Blue Jays over that three-year span. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating weren’t particularly bullish on his work at shortstop in that time, but it’s a relatively small sample from which to draw conclusions.
Toronto tried to pass Urena through waivers back in January, but he ended up being claimed by the Orioles, who successfully passed him through waivers not long thereafter. Urena didn’t make the cut for the Orioles’ 60-man player pool in the shortened 2020 season, however, and he’ll now return to the Jays organization as a depth piece who could give them some cover at multiple positions in 2021.
In 670 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, Urena has posted a .250/.289/.373 batting line with 11 homers, 29 doubles, seven triples and five stolen bases (in 10 tries).
Rangers Acquire Ryder Ryan From Mets As PTBNL From Todd Frazier Swap
The Rangers announced Friday that they’ve acquired minor league right-hander Ryder Ryan from the Mets as the player to be named later from the Aug. 31 trade that sent Todd Frazier to New York.
Ryan, 25, was a 30th-round pick back in 2016 who landed with the Mets in the 2017 Jay Bruce trade. He pitched at the Double-A level with the Mets in both 2018 and 2019, working to a combined 3.51 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and 0.82 HR/9 in 77 innings — primarily as a reliever. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked Ryan 24th among Mets farmhands prior to the 2019 season, calling him a potential middle reliever with a consistently average or better breaking ball.
Ryan doesn’t factor prominently into any current ranking of the Mets’ top farmhands, but the Frazier swap still didn’t work out as the now-former front office regime hoped. The veteran Frazier struggled in his return to Queens, hitting .224/.255/.388 in just 51 plate appearances. His 2021 club option was bought out at season’s end, making him a free agent.
Cardinals Sign Jose Rondon To Minor League Deal
The Cardinals announced that they’ve signed infielder Jose Rondon to a minor league contract Friday. He’s been invited to Major League Spring Training.
Rondon, 27 in March, appeared in 106 games between the Padres, White Sox and Orioles from 2016-19, mostly with the White Sox. He’s a career .201/.260/.336 hitter with nine homers in 290 plate appearances. Rondon has appeared at all four infield positions and at left field in the Major Leagues, albeit just 16 combined innings at left field and in first base. Shortstop has been his primary position throughout his pro career, though Rondon hasn’t graded out well in an admittedly tiny sample of 217 MLB frames at the position. His marks at second base and third base are better.
Rondon gives the Cardinals some infield depth after the club decided to decline second baseman Kolten Wong‘s $12.5MM club option back in November. Even if he were to make the roster, Rondon would presumably serve as a bench piece, with Tommy Edman slotting in as the primary second baseman and Matt Carpenter getting a chance to rebound at the hot corner. The Cards currently have Edmundo Sosa and Elehuris Montero as additional infield options on the 40-man roster, and St. Louis recently added Max Moroff on a minor league deal with a non-roster invite — the same type of deal received by Rondon.
In parts of four Triple-A seasons, Rondon is a .258/.301/.448 hitter.
Cubs, James Bourque Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs have agreed to a minor league pact with righty James Bourque and invited him to Major League Spring Training, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). The 27-year-old Bourque appeared to be in line to get a look with the Nats in September, but an elbow strain landed him on the IL and limited him to four innings. The Nats removed Bourque from the 40-man roster after the season drew to a close, and he opted for free agency rather than accepting an outright assignment.
A 14th-round pick in 2014, Bourque ranked near the back end of the Nationals’ top 30 farmhands in recent years due largely to a power fastball that sits in the mid 90s and an above-average curveball. Control has increasingly become an issue for Bourque as he’s advanced through the minors and faced better competition, but his strikeout rates have also climbed. In 117 innings from 2018-19, Bourque whiffed 162 batters in just 117 innings — good for 12.5 K/9 and a 32.5 percent overall strikeout rate. He also averaged 4.8 BB/9 with a 12.4 percent walk overall walk rate.
Bourque is the second bullpen flier in as many days for the Cubs, who yesterday agreed to a non-guaranteed, Major League deal with former Yankees setup man Jonathan Holder. Chicago hasn’t spent much on the bullpen at all in recent years outside of a one-time splash with Craig Kimbrel that hasn’t panned out, and the team has also struggled to develop consistently productive arms. As such, there are several spots up for grabs in a largely unsettled bullpen mix, creating Spring Training opportunities for Bourque, Holder and any other speculative adds by new president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer.
Rays Sign Michael Wacha
The Rays added a veteran source of innings to their rotation Friday morning, announcing a one-year deal with right-hander Michael Wacha. The CAA client will reportedly land a $3MM guarantee on the heels of a rough 2020 season with the Mets. That’s the same salary (prior to pro-rating) that Wacha earned in New York last season.
Wacha struggled through eight games with the Mets in the abbreviated 2020 season, pitching to a 6.62 ERA with a whopping nine home runs allowed in just 34 innings. His 2019 season was also rather lackluster campaign owing in no small part to knee and shoulder injuries — the latter of which has been a recurring issue throughout his career.
Despite the down showing, Wacha was reportedly a fairly popular target among free-agent starters due to his age and price point. The 2015 All-Star also logged a very strong 37-to-7 K/BB ratio in those 34 frames while seeing marked upticks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. His 11.3 percent swinging-strike rate trails only his 11.4 percent mark from his rookie campaign back in 2013, and Wacha’s 34.3 percent chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone was far and away a career-high. He won’t turn 30 until July, either, making Wacha younger than several other free-agent rotation options on the market.
Wacha’s average fastball velocity bottomed out with the Cardinals in 2019, sitting at a career-low 93 mph, per Statcast. He made some positive gains last year, sitting at 93.6 mph with the pitch, but he’s still a ways removed from his 95.1 mph peak back in 2017. He altered his pitch selection considerably in 2020, scrapping a once highly effective curveball to lean into a three-pitch mix featuring his four-seamer, cutter and changeup. The results weren’t great from a run-prevention standpoint, although the aforementioned gains in missed bats surely piqued the Rays’ interest.
Wacha is a sensible pickup for the Rays, who earlier this winter declined their $15MM club option on Charlie Morton but still have high-end starters Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow to front the rotation. Depth, however, is more of an issue than usual for Tampa Bay, as each of Yonny Chirinos (Tommy John surgery), Jalen Beeks (Tommy John surgery) and Brendan McKay (shoulder surgery) went under the knife in the past several months. Chirinos and Beeks won’t pitch in 2021. McKay’s timeline is still muddy. Prior indications have been that he’ll be delayed in ’21 but eventually be able to take the mound.
With Wacha now on board, the Rays will presumably deploy a starting mix of Snell, Glasnow, Wacha and Ryan Yarbrough. Lefty Josh Fleming, righty Trevor Richards and top prospect Shane McClanahan are all candidates to claim permanent spots in the rotation as well. The Rays were also the club to popularize the usage of openers, so it’s possible they’ll eschew a set fifth starter entirely, instead gravitating toward less conventional means of pitcher use. The possibility of trading a more experienced starter can’t be written off, either, as Snell’s name has popped up on the rumor circuit at multiple points this winter.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported that the two sides were “deep” in talks and that the two sides had reached a $3MM agreement (Twitter links).