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Scott Alexander Elects Free Agency

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The Giants announced Friday that left-handed reliever Scott Alexander has cleared waivers and elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A. He’ll be the corresponding 40-man and 26-man roster move for the previously reported promotion of fellow lefty Matt Gage to the Giants’ big league bullpen.

Alexander, 36, has pitched 17 2/3 innings between the Rockies and Giants this season and been hit hard, serving up a 6.11 ERA. He’s yielded a dozen runs on 23 hits — five of them homers — and nine walks with eight strikeouts. Alexander has also hit a batter. His Triple-A work hasn’t been any better, as he’s been tagged for six runs in 5 1/3 innings.

Rough as the 2025 season has been, it was just last year that Alexander turned in 38 2/3 frames of 2.56 ERA ball for the A’s. His 19.4% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate were both worse than average, but the well-traveled lefty’s 60% ground-ball rate was one of the top marks in the sport by any pitcher. Mass quantities of grounders are nothing new for Alexander, who has a career 66.4% ground-ball rate. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings since Alexander’s MLB debut in 2015, only the retired Zack Britton has a higher ground-ball rate.

Once again a free agent, Alexander can now explore opportunities with all 30 teams. He’s a nice depth option for any club looking to add some left-handed depth to its bullpen mix. In 327 career big league innings (349 total appearances), Alexander has a 3.36 ERA, 17.6% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate, 66.4% grounder rate, 0.69 HR/9, 13 saves and 65 holds.

Diamondbacks To Select Trevor Richards

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The Diamondbacks are selecting the contract of right-hander Trevor Richards from Triple-A Reno, reports John Gambadoro of 98.7 Arizona Sports. Alex Weiner of AZSports.com noted yesterday that Richards had a locker set up in the big league clubhouse during yesterday’s optional team workout at Chase Field. Catcher Adrian Del Castillo is also being recalled from Reno. Gambadoro adds that third baseman Eugenio Suárez, who had an injury scare when he was plunked on the hand in Tuesday’s All-Star Game, will be in tonight’s lineup for the D-backs.

Richards is now with his third organization of the season, having also spent time with the Royals and Cubs. He tossed three big league innings with Kansas City but was tagged for four runs in that small sample. That’s his only big league time this year. He’s spent the rest of the season between the Triple-A affiliates for those three clubs, pitching to a collective 5.12 ERA with a 22% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate.

The 32-year-old Richards has pitched in each of the past eight major league seasons, though he hasn’t had much success since 2021. He sports a 5.05 ERA in 205 innings dating back to Opening Day 2022. He’s set down 28.2% of his opponents on strikes in that time but has also issued walks to 12% of the hitters he’s faced and surrendered an average of 1.27 homers per nine innings pitched.

Arizona’s bullpen has been decimated by injury. A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez both underwent UCL surgeries last month. Jalen Beeks is out with a lower back issue, and Ryan Thompson hit the 15-day IL due to a shoulder injury a couple weeks back. Shelby Miller is on the 15-day IL due to a forearm strain.

Richards doesn’t have a strong recent track record, but he’s bee a serviceable middle reliever at various points in his career and at the very least can miss bats at a solid clip. His above-average changeup makes him a quality option against lefties — more so than versus righties — which probably holds extra appeal to the D-backs with both Puk and Beeks out of action. Andrew Saalfrank and 27-year-old rookie Kyle Backhus are the only lefties in manager Torey Lovullo’s bullpen and the only healthy left-handed relievers on the 40-man roster at the moment, so adding a righty who has a nice track record against southpaws makes some sense.

As for Del Castillo, it’s not yet clear what sort of corresponding move there is with regard to the catching corps. He’d be an upgrade offensively over Jose Herrera, who has been sharing catching duties with veteran James McCann while Gabriel Moreno’s broken finger heals. Neither Herrera nor McCann can be optioned — Herrera because he’s out of minor league options and McCann because players with five-plus year of MLB service cannot be sent down without their consent. McCann has more than 10 years of major league service time.

The 25-year-old Del Castillo made his MLB debut last year and hit .313/.368/.525 with four homers in 87 plate appearances. He’s slashing .288/.386/.559 in 70 plate appearances but has spent the bulk of the season on the minor league injured list. Herrera (.197/.302/.268) has struggled greatly at the plate but is a better defensive option. McCann has just 31 plate appearances since signing in the wake of that Moreno injury but has gone 9-for-24 with a pair of homers and a pair of doubles (.375/.516/.708).

Giants To Select Matt Gage

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The Giants are selecting the contract of left-handed reliever Matt Gage, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. They’ll need to open spots on both the 26-man and 40-man rosters to make his promotion official.

Gage, 32, signed a minor league deal with San Francisco early this month after he elected free agency following an outright by the Tigers. He’s tossed 5 1/3 shutout innings with the Giants’ Triple-A club — a nice follow-up to the 5 2/3 shutout innings he delivered for Detroit’s big league club this season. Gage has pitched in parts of three MLB campaigns but has only 25 1/3 innings under his belt despite a tidy 1.42 earned run average in that time. He’s fanned 22.5% of his opponents against a 10.8% walk rate.

With Erik Miller on the injured list due to an elbow sprain, the Giants have veterans Joey Lucchesi and Scott Alexander as lefty options in skipper Bob Melvin’s bullpen. Lucchesi has pitched well, holding opponents to three runs in 10 innings. Alexander has pitched just 1 1/3 innings through two appearances and allowed one run. The Giants just added him to the roster shortly before the break.

Gage is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to either stick in the big league bullpen or else be designated for assignment and placed back on waivers. The Giants have a clear need for some left-handed bullpen help, so he should have an opportunity, though president of baseball operations Buster Posey and general manager Zack Minasian could also look to the trade market in the next two weeks to bring in a more established left-handed bullpen presence.

Guardians’ Luis Ortiz Placed On Leave Due To “Ongoing League Investigation”

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July 18: The league and the the MLBPA have jointly agreed to extend Ortiz’s leave through Aug. 31. The investigation is still ongoing.

July 3, 11:00am: Zack Meisel and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic report that the investigation pertains to gambling.

9:35am: Guardians right-hander Luis Ortiz has been placed on non-disciplinary paid  leave through the All-Star break due to an “ongoing league investigation,” according to announcements from both the team and the league. The leave was jointly agreed upon by the league and the Players Association. The Guardians’ statement noted that they are not permitted to comment further at this time. Neither the league nor the team provided specific details on the nature of the investigation.

Ortiz, 26, is in his first season with Cleveland after coming over from the Pirates in exchange for first baseman Spencer Horwitz. He stepped right into the Guardians’ rotation and has started 16 games, tossing 88 2/3 innings with a 4.36 ERA, a 25.1% strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate.

Ortiz had been slated to start tonight’s game for Cleveland, but left-hander Joey Cantillo will make that start instead. He’ll join a rotation also including Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Slade Cecconi. The Guardians lost righty Ben Lively to Tommy John surgery earlier this season, while longtime ace Shane Bieber’s return from last year’s Tommy John procedure was slowed by a minor setback. Bieber recently resumed throwing.

Angels To Sign No. 2 Overall Pick Tyler Bremner

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The Angels have agreed to terms on a $7,689,525 bonus with No. 2 overall draft pick Tyler Bremner, reports Carlos Collazo of Baseball America. That’s more than $2.5MM under the slot value of that second overall pick. They’ve reallocated that chunk of savings to sign over-slot deals with third-round pick Johnny Slawinski, fifth-round pick CJ Gray and 13th-round pick Xavier Mitchell, per Collazo. Slawinski signed for a $2.4975MM bonus — nearly $1.5MM over slot. Gray’s $1.2475MM bonus clocks in $728K over slot. Mitchell’s $872,500 bonus is akin to third-round money.

Bremner, 21, was a surprise pick at No. 2. The UC Santa Barbara product was widely considered a first-round talent but projected to go later down the board. The Halos tend to lean toward polished, quick-to-the-majors college players with their top picks, however, and Bremner largely fits that bill. Plus, the savings on this pick allowed them to make sizable commitments to high school picks like Slawinski, Gray and Mitchell.

Bremner’s junior season in college ball was sharp. He pitched to a 3.49 ERA, fanned 35.6% of his opponents and walked only 6.1% of the batters he faced. FanGraphs ranked him seventh in this year’s draft class, while Bremner ranked 11th at Baseball America, 16th per The Athletic’s Keith Law and 18th both at MLB.com and at ESPN. He draws praise for a mid-90s heater with good sink and a plus changeup that’s effective against both righties and lefties. The general consensus is that he needs work on his slider or perhaps the incorporation of another new pitch, but he’s viewed as a fairly likely mid-rotation arm with the upside to develop into more than that, depending on the development of a third pitch.

Each of Slawinski, Gray and Mitchell ranked within the top 118 prospects on Baseball America’s Top 500 list and within the top 178 talents at MLB.com’s top 200. All three are prep pitchers with considerable ceilings — Slawinski and Mitchell from the left side. Slawinski had been committed to Texas A&M, while Gray was committed to NC State and Mitchell to Texas.

Cubs To Sign Spencer Turnbull

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The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with right-hander Spencer Turnbull, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He was released by the Blue Jays late last month. It’s not yet clear whether the Boras Corporation client is headed to the Cubs on a big league contract or a minor league deal. Either way, he’ll provide some depth to a rotation that has seen several injuries this season.

The 32-year-old Turnbull enjoyed a strong showing with the 2024 Phillies, pitching to a 2.65 ERA in 54 1/3 innings but missing ample time on the injured list. He lingered in free agency throughout the entire offseason and only signed with Toronto in early May, well after the season was underway, for a prorated $1.27MM salary. The Jays ultimately received only three appearances for that modest investment. Turnbull struggled in the minors while ramping up and couldn’t get on track in his limited MLB work either, yielding five runs on 12 hits and four walks with four strikeouts in 6 1/3 big league frames.

Turnbull’s velocity never got up to its typical levels, though that’s perhaps not a huge surprise for a late signee who went through an accelerated buildup. The right-hander sat 89.7 mph with his four-seamer in the minors and was up to 90.9 mph in the majors — both noticeably south of the 92 mph he averaged in Philadelphia last year and the 92.9 mph at which he sat with the Tigers in 2023.

Although this year’s performance doesn’t stand out, Turnbull has been a generally productive pitcher when healthy enough to take the mound. He posted a 4.61 ERA and 3.99 FIP in his first full season at the majors with Detroit back in 2019, tossing 148 1/3 frames. From 2020-24, Turnbull improved to a 3.84 ERA with a 22% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate –albeit in a sample of just 192 innings over that five-year period.

Injuries have regularly interrupted Turnbull’s path to establishing himself as a credible big league starter. He missed the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery and has also had notable Il stints in his career for lat, back, shoulder, forearm and neck injuries. Turnbull has worked primarily as a starter in the majors — 68 starts, 13 relief outings — but still has only 363 innings under his belt due to that deluge of health troubles.

The Cubs aren’t going to blindly count on Turnbull to hold down a rotation spot from this point forth, but he’ll give them another option to evaluate at a time when Justin Steele is done for the season and when Javier Assad (oblique) and Jameson Taillon (calf) are on the injured list. Assad has yet to pitch this season. Chicago also recently optioned young righty Ben Brown to Triple-A amid some notable struggles.

At the moment, the Cubs’ rotation includes Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton and Colin Rea. Swingman Chris Flexen made a spot start last Friday but has otherwise been used in long relief, where he’s been excellent. The Cubs are widely expected to add at least one starter — if not two — between now and the July 31 trade deadline. The signing of Turnbull doesn’t change that likelihood but does add some further depth in the event of additional injuries to the current staff.

Latest On Cardinals’ Bullpen Trade Candidates

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Cardinals lefty Steven Matz has drawn some trade interest as the July 31 deadline inches closer, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (video link, bullpen talk beginning around the 4:10 mark). “There are a handful of teams at least poking around on Matz,” per Goold. He adds that the Cardinals will also likely be open to offers on righty Phil Maton but would need a very strong offer to trade closer Ryan Helsley, who could receive a qualifying offer if he’s not moved.

[Related: St. Louis Cardinals Trade Deadline Outlook]

Matz, 34, is in the final season of a four-year, $44MM contract. He’s being paid $12MM this season and has about $4.65MM of that sum yet to be paid out. By the time deadline day rolls around, he’ll have about $3.8MM to go on that contract.

While the four-year deal hasn’t panned out as hope — Matz was injured/ineffective in both 2022 and 2024 — the 2025 season has been a good one for the veteran lefty. Matz has pitched well in two starts (nine innings, one run, 11 strikeouts, no walks) but has spent the majority of the season working in a multi-inning relief role. He’s pitched to a 3.35 ERA in 51 innings overall, fanning 21.4% of his opponents and limiting walks at a terrific 4.3% clip. He’s hit a rough patch of late, allowing nine runs in his past dozen innings, but it’s generally been a nice rebound year for the southpaw.

Goold adds that Matz has drawn interest from teams looking to fill a variety of roles. He obviously has a long track record as a starter and is pitching in multi-inning stints right now. It’d be possible to stretch Matz back out as a relatively under-the-radar target for teams seeking to fortify the back end of the rotation. Conversely, Matz has clear value in his current multi-inning role, and he has the stuff and results to succeed in a more traditional single-inning setup role.

Maton, 32, has been one of the top bargain pickups of the offseason. He surprisingly languished on the free-agent market into March despite a nice 2024 season — really, a nice three-year run from 2022-24 — and ultimately signed for a modest $2MM guarantee with the Cards. He’s been a key arm in the St. Louis bullpen, pitching 35 1/3 innings with a 2.55 ERA, a 30.4% strikeout rate rate and a 9.5% walk rate. That strikeout rate would be a career-best in a 162-game season.

The lack of interest in Maton may have stemmed from some worrying trends with regard to his velocity. He’s never been a hard-thrower, but last year’s 88.7 mph average on his cutter and 87.5 mph average on his sinker were steps down from the prior season (and a career-worst with regard to his sinker). He’s added about two miles per hour to each pitch in 2025, sitting 90.4 mph on his cutter and 89.5 mph on his sinker.

It’s still below-average velocity, but this is the fourth straight year that Maton has enjoyed success with meager heat on his pitches — and he’s only owed about $774K more of this year’s salary as of this writing ($634K after deadline day). Budget-crunched teams seeking a reliable setup arm should have interest. Maton has already tied a career-high with 18 holds, and he’s picked up a pair of saves as well.

As for the 31-year-old Helsley, he’s enjoying a strong season overall but hasn’t matched his 2024 dominance. Last year, the flamethrowing righty notched a 2.04 ERA with an NL-best 49 saves while fanning 29.7% of his opponents. This season, he’s pitched to a 3.27 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and 19 saves. He’s still owed about $3.17MM of this year’s $8.2MM salary (a number that’ll dip to $2.6MM by the day of the deadline itself).

Last year’s qualifying offer clocked in at $21.05MM. That number figures to rise this season. It’d be a steep price to pay for one year of any reliever, but there’s a good chance Helsley would still reject the QO and look for a lucrative multi-year contract. He won’t command an AAV that strong on a longer-term deal, but this offseason will represent his best chance to cash in on a long-term deal.

There’ll surely be some temptation to accept that sizable one-year deal and test the open market post-2026, without the burden of draft pick compensation, but doing so runs the risk of incurring an injury or major downturn in performance next year. Relief pitching is immensely volatile on a year-to-year basis. There’s also the looming specter of a potential lockout in the 2026-27 offseason, given the Dec. 2026 expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement. Having a multi-year deal in place is surely preferable to being a free agent in such an uncertain offseason.

If Helsley were to reject a QO and sign for more than $50MM total — which seems quite attainable — the Cardinals would receive a compensatory pick after the first round in the 2026 draft. Any return on Helsley would need to reflect that. It’s also possible the Cardinals have some hope of keeping Helsley, whether via that one-year QO or perhaps by negotiating a multi-year extension after making said offer. Helsley has said in the past that he’d love to stay in St. Louis long-term.

Any decisions on Helsley — and, to a lesser extent, Matz and Maton — will hinge on the Cardinals’ play in the early stages coming out of the All-Star break. At 51-46 on the season, they’re currently 6.5 games back of the division-leading Cubs but only 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

The Cardinals open the season’s second half with a pivotal three-game road set against a D-backs club in a similar position of needing to string together some wins to avoid a notable deadline sell-off. The Cardinals, 22-26 on the road versus 29-20 at home, will send Andre Pallante, Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas to the mound. Arizona will counter with Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Merrill Kelly. The Cardinals then head to Colorado for three games before hosting the Padres and Marlins in their final two series prior to the July 31 trade deadline. With a strong performance over the next 12 games, they could opt to hold onto most of their veterans and look to add pieces, while a string of series losses could be the deciding factor in trading away short-term veterans.

The Opener: Key Series To Watch, Wright, Trout

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Here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball this weekend…

1. Fringe contenders gear up for their final deadline push:

We’re 13 days out from the 2025 MLB trade deadline, and there are ten non-playoff clubs within three games of .500 and within six games of a Wild Card berth. The next two weeks of play will be critical, and if any one of those bubble clubs gets out to a tough start coming out of the break, it could tip them toward selling even sooner. A sweep for any of the Rays, Rangers, Twins, Angels, Royals, Guardians, Giants, Cardinals, Reds or D-backs could be backbreaking for their season. Every team in baseball has a three-game series beginning tonight.

Tampa Bay opens the second half hosting a disappointing Orioles club. The Rangers host the MLB-best Tigers. The Twins head to Coors Field to take on the Rockies. The Angels draw a tough task with a road series in Philly. Kansas City is on the road against the Marlins. The Guardians host the A’s. The Giants are set to head to Toronto. The Reds will take on the Mets in Queens. Most interestingly, the Cardinals and D-backs will square off against one another in Arizona — a series matchup that carries potentially major deadline ramifications.

2. Mets to honor David Wright, retire his number:

The Mets will pay tribute to a franchise icon Saturday when they retire David Wright’s No. 5 and induct him into the Mets Hall of Fame. The 42-year-old Wright’s career was cut far shorter than baseball fans — not just Mets fans — would have hoped. Neck, shoulder and spinal injuries derailed the latter stages of Wright’s career and put an end to his playing days when he still had two years remaining on his contract. From 2016-18 — his final active years — Wright only managed to play 77 games.

Prior to that, Wright was a perennial All-Star who won multiple Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards. The former No. 38 overall pick was the face of the Mets franchise for upwards of a decade. He made his MLB debut in his age-21 season and hit the ground running with a .293/.332/.525 batting line in 283 plate appearances. Wright received MVP votes in each of the next four seasons, and though he never won Most Valuable Player honors, he enjoyed four top-ten finishes. From 2004-14, Wright ranked among the very best all-around players in MLB. He batted a combined .298/.377/.494 with 230 home runs and 191 steals along the way. Wright’s 50.4 fWAR in that stretch ranked fifth among all major leaguers (pitchers and hitters alike), trailing only Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley and Adrian Beltre.

Wright also represented the United States in both the 2009 and 2013 World Baseball Classics, where he became renowned for his heroics and earned the nickname “Captain America.” Wright ripped a two-run, walk-off single that scored Brian Roberts and Jimmy Rollins to push the U.S. to the semifinal round in ’09, and he broke open a first-round matchup against Italy with a grand slam as part of a massive 2013 performance in the tournament.

The Mets will host a “block party” at Citi Field that’s open to all and begins three hours before Saturday’s 4:10pm ET start time. Wright will be honored in a pre-game ceremony. He’ll become the tenth Met to have his number retired.

3. Milestones on the horizon for Trout:

Turning to another franchise icon, Angels star Mike Trout is on the cusp of reaching some historic round figures in his career. The three-time American League MVP and 11-time All-Star is sitting on 995 runs batted in and 395 home runs. There’s a decent chance that he’ll become just the 308th player in MLB history to reach 1000 RBIs this weekend in Philadelphia. It’s far less likely — though for a player with Trout’s power, not impossible — that he’ll reach 400 homers this weekend. But, Trout’s 400th round-tripper probably isn’t too far off. He’s slugged 17 long balls in just 299 plate appearances this season while batting .238/.365/.471 (127 wRC+). When Trout does cross that 400 threshold, he’ll be just the 59th player to ever get there. Along the way, he’ll pass Joe Carter (396), Dale Murphy (398), Al Kaline (399) and Andres Galarraga (399).

Corbin Martin Elects Free Agency

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The Orioles announced Thursday that right-hander Corbin Martin, whom they designated for assignment this past Sunday, has cleared waivers and rejected an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk. He’s now a free agent.

The 29-year-old Martin appeared in one game for the O’s — his first time on a big league mound since the 2022 season with the D-backs. The former second-round pick was one of four players traded by the Astros to Arizona in 2019’s Zack Greinke trade. Martin was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time of that trade and was ultimately unable to establish himself with the Diamondbacks. He’s pitched 57 2/3 innings in the big leagues to this point in his career (including his quick look with the O’s) and carries a 6.56 ERA, a 19.4% strikeout rate and a 13.4% walk rate.

The Orioles claimed Martin off waivers from the Brewers last June. He’s pitched 32 1/3 innings with a 5.29 ERA in Triple-A Norfolk this year. That includes a strong run from May 30 to the time of his call to the majors, during which he rattled off 12 innings of one-run ball with an 11-to-4 K/BB ratio. Overall, Martin has set down 23% of his opponents on strikes against a 10.4% walk rate. In parts of five Triple-A seasons, Martin has a 5.18 ERA, 23.1% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate in a total of 217 1/3 innings.

Yankees Interested In Mitch Keller

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The Yankees have shown interest in Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, reports Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They’re one of several clubs in the running for the 29-year-old righty, who’s signed for three additional years beyond the current season. Both the Mets and Cubs have been tied to Keller in recent weeks. Hiles adds that the Cubs currently view Keller more of a backup option in their rotation search, while the Mets are “very” interested.

Interest in Keller is only natural for the Yankees, who’ll be prominent players in the starting pitching market over the next two weeks. GM Brian Cashman acknowledged as much recently when indicating that pitching will be his top priority this summer. New York lost Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery before the season even began. Clarke Schmidt met the same fate earlier this month. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil still hasn’t pitched this season due to a lat strain. Lefty Ryan Yarbrough has also been out nearly a month due to an oblique strain.

At the moment, the Yankees have Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and rookies Will Warren and Cam Schlittler in the rotation. The hope is that Gil, who’s already on a minor league rehab assignment, can strengthen that group soon. In theory, Yarbrough shouldn’t be far behind, but he’s yet to begin a rehab stint. That assumes no setbacks and a return to pre-injury form though — neither of which is a guarantee.

Keller has started 20 games for Pittsburgh and boasts a 3.48 ERA. He’s punched out 18.7% of his opponents and turned in a career-low 5.5% walk rate. Keller has been on a particularly strong run of late, pitching into the sixth inning or later in 13 consecutive starts and compiling a 3.04 ERA over 80 innings in that time. Ten of those appearances have been quality starts. Dating back to 2022, Keller is tied for the seventh-most starts (112) and tenth-most innings (650 1/3) in all of Major League Baseball.

Bringing Keller into the fold would make sense both to help this season and to provide some future stability. Stroman is a free agent at season’s end. Neither Warren nor Schlittler has cemented himself as a long-term rotation cog yet. Cole’s rehab will probably extend beyond Opening Day next year. Schmidt, given the timing of his surgery, won’t make it back to the mound until at least late next year — possibly not until 2027.

Keller would add durability to that group and create the possibility of a very strong midseason rotation next year. Health for all parties can’t necessarily be assumed, but there’d be a real chance that by June or so, the Yankees could deploy a rotation including Cole, Fried, Rodon, Keller and Gil, with Warren and Schlittler as the sixth and seventh arms on the depth chart. That sort of depth would rank among the best in baseball.

There are other factors to consider. Keller is midway through the second season of a five-year, $77MM contract. He’s being paid $15MM in 2025 and will earn salaries of $16.5MM, $18MM and $20MM over the next three seasons. That’s fine value for a mid-rotation arm of Keller’s caliber — particularly if you believe there’s still a bit of untapped upside in the former second-round pick and top prospect — but the Yankees would be on the hook for a good bit more than that due to their luxury tax status.

As of this writing, Keller has about $5.89MM of this year’s salary yet to be paid out. Add that to his future salaries and he’s still owed about $60.39MM over the next three-plus seasons. The Yankees would be taxed at a 110% clip on the roughly $17.8MM annual value of that remainder — assuming they remain in the top tier of luxury penalization moving forward, which seems like a good bet.

RosterResource projects the Yankees with about $187MM of luxury obligations in 2026, and that’s before factoring in arbitration raises for Jazz Chisholm Jr., Anthony Volpe, Fernando Cruz, Schmidt and Gil. Keller would add another $17.8MM to that number, and the Yankees will be in the market for help at third base, center field and in the bullpen this winter (depending on their trade deadline activity, of course). Each of Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver is a free agent in a few months. Even if the Yankees were able to drop down into only the third tier of penalization, they’d still pay a 90% tax on Keller’s remaining annual value.

If the Pirates do move Keller, they’ll presumably be most motivated by MLB-ready position players. Pittsburgh is deep in intriguing young arms (and just added another, Seth Hernandez, with the sixth overall pick in the 2025 draft) but hasn’t had much success in terms of developing young hitters. That’s not to say they’d have no interest in further stockpiling young pitching, but their aim over the next couple weeks is surely to add at least a few young hitters of note to help bolster a stagnant offense that ranks last in the majors in runs scored, home runs and slugging percentage.

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