MLB Cancels Planned Series In Mexico City And Puerto Rico
Major League Baseball formally announced today that the Diamondbacks/Padres series that had been planned to take place on April 18-19 in Mexico City and the Marlins/Mets series that was set for April 28-30 in San Juan, Puerto Rico have been canceled. The series will be held in Phoenix and Miami, as the D-backs and Marlins had been designated the “home” team for each of those neutral-location sets of games.
It was something of a fait accompli that both series would be postponed at the very least. Major League Baseball has already pushed back the season opener until at least mid-May, making it clear that those games wouldn’t be played as scheduled. Still, it’s a tough break for baseball fans in Mexico City and in San Juan that they won’t have the opportunity to attend those games, just as the organizations and players are likely disheartened not to play in such unique settings.
“It breaks our heart we won’t be playing in front of the incredible fans in Mexico this year, but health and safety come first,” the D-backs said in a statement announcing the cancellation of the series.
There’s yet to be an indication as to what will happen with Major League Baseball’s London Series between the Cardinals and Cubs, which is scheduled to take place on June 13-14. Those contests are technically designated as “home” games for the Cardinals, so if the league takes a similar course of action, they’ll be postponed and held in St. Louis at a later date.
Marlins Notes: Villar, Urena, Outfield, Boxberger
The Marlins were impressed by Jonathan Villar‘s work in center field prior to last week’s abrupt shutdown of Spring Training, writes Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. President of baseball operations Michael Hill tells McPherson that Villar looked “pretty natural” in the outfield, praising the speedster’s reads and his “natural glide to the ball.” The Marlins have “no reservations” about installing Villar as their primary center fielder whenever the season does get underway — a move that’d allow them to slot Brian Anderson in at third base, Miguel Rojas at shortstop and Isan Diaz at second base. Barring an extension, Villar is a short-term addition for the Miami organization. He’ll reach free agency next winter, and a year of even average glovework in center field would substantially bolster his stock, as would an approximation of 2019’s strong .274/.339/.453 slash (with 24 homers and 40 steals).
More notes out of Miami…
- Jose Urena went from 2019 Opening Day starter to trade candidate to non-tender candidate over the course of a year, but Miami opted to keep him and seems happy to have done so. Craig Mish of SportsGrid tweets that the Marlins were “itching” to see more of the 28-year-old, who revamped his delivery and his slider in the offseason. Urena yielded just two runs on 13 hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in 14 spring frames before exhibition play was halted. If he’s able to carry some of that success into the regular season, he’ll quickly emerge as a trade commodity. The Marlins only control Urena through the 2021 season, so their window to move him is narrowing. And his $3.75MM salary makes him affordable for just about any club that has a need to add to the starting staff. Urena missed nearly three months with a back strain in 2019, posted a 5.21 ERA in 82 1/3 innings when on the active roster and at one point lost his rotation spot. But in the two prior seasons, the righty notched a solid 3.90 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 343 2/3 innings.
- MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro runs through a number of the position battles that were taking shape in Marlins camp prior to the stoppage of play. Notably, Frisaro writes that veteran outfielder Matt Joyce is in line to start about three times a week in right field, with one of Harold Ramirez, Lewis Brinson, Garrett Cooper or Monte Harrison possibly getting the nod on the other side of a timeshare. Veteran Matt Kemp, in camp on a non-roster deal, is viewed more as a potential bench bat. In the bullpen, Frisaro notes that veteran Brad Boxberger (also on a minor league pact) was “tracking toward” a spot on the roster. Mish heard similar things, tweeting last week that Boxberger was “close to a lock” to make the roster as a setup man to expected closer Brandon Kintzler.
MLB Faced With Difficult Questions Regarding Draft
The Coronavirus pandemic has thrown professional sports into a state of chaos, with baseball in a particularly uncertain position given that its regular season hasn’t even started. But while much of the focus has been on when the season will start, that’s far from the only issue with which the league and players’ union are wrestling. The June draft, for instance, represents an extremely difficult challenge. High school and college seasons have both been halted, leaving clubs without any opportunities to scout this year’s crop of players.
To that end, Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that the league and the union have discussed canceling the draft entirely. Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic also report that possibility is under consideration, adding that a combined 2020-21 draft class has been discussed.
Of course, the myriad logistical problems associated with that scenario are rather apparent. College seniors, in particular, would be left out to dry. College juniors could simply stay for their senior year, but returning for a fourth season would be a double-edged sword; currently projected top picks would face the risk of tanking their stock with an injury or poor showing, while mid- and lower-round picks could have a chance to substantially elevate their stock.
Similarly, high school seniors would be left in a state of limbo. The league and union could alter the draft eligibility guidelines that currently don’t allow college freshmen to be selected, but that creates complications for and pushback from the NCAA. As Baseball America’s Carlos Colazzo points out, the level of competition for playing time among freshmen would skyrocket if the year’s entire prep class were to advance to collegiate ball. That, too, could complicate matters from a scouting perspective.
Collazo spoke with multiple scouting directors throughout the league, with one AL director opining that keeping the draft in place as presently constructed is the best solution. The director noted that “you’re going to have to worry about scouting the PDP League and the 2021 (class). Those are hugely important events while you’re also simultaneously preparing for the draft. Your scouts are going to be pulled in different directions.”
Clubs have been scouting both this year’s high school and college players for years already. And while the lack of a spring season doesn’t give those teams the most recent looks to evaluate the class, it avoids many of the logistical difficulties that come with postponing or canceling the 2020 draft. Certainly, evaluating high school students would be of particular difficulty, given that they’re earlier on in their development (both from a baseball and purely physical standpoint).
Collazo rightly notes that leaving the draft in place only impacts the current draft, whereas pushing back to a combined 2020-21 setting throws a wrench into multiple draft classes. A delay may well happen, though, with one agent telling Collazo it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the draft “moved back a little bit, or moved back as appropriate and they do try and get the college kids back to their campuses in May or June. Kind of ramp back up under those facilities. You do some regional type workouts at the big universities, all the area guys come in.” However, the agent admitted that’s far from a perfect scenario, wondering: “Who pays for it? When is it? What does the NCAA allow? You have all these things kind of stacking up.”
Holding the draft on schedule would seem to be the ideal outcome for baseball. Unfortunately, though, no one knows whether that will prove to be realistic with COVID-19 wreaking havoc across the globe.
Miles Mikolas Resumes Throwing
Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas has resumed throwing after undergoing a platelet-rich plasma injection for a strained flexor tendon in his right arm last month, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Mikolas is currently limited to playing catch from 90 feet, but he’s upping the distance regularly and tells Hummel that he now expects to be able to contribute from day one of the regular season — whenever that is.
The forearm injury had previously wiped out any possibility of Mikolas being part of the active roster on the previously scheduled March 26 season opener, but that’s no longer the case. The right-hander had been eyeing a late April or early May return to the roster, and with Opening Day pushed back at least eight weeks, his rehab timeline should be complete before the season gets underway.
Penciling Mikolas into the starting rotation would force the Cardinals into a tough decision on the rest of the rotation. Jack Flaherty is a lock, of course, and former ace Carlos Martinez impressed early in spring as he built back up as a starter. Veteran Adam Wainwright is back on another one-year deal as well, and the Cards also have young righty Dakota Hudson and offseason pickup Kwang-Hyun Kim in the fold as well — the latter of whom turned in eye-opening results in the abbreviated first iteration of Spring Training. There’s ample depth even beyond that group, too. Right-handers Daniel Ponce de Leon and Jake Woodford are both on the 40-man roster, as are lefties Austin Gomber and Genesis Cabrera.
The Cards will surely file all that away in the “good problem to have” drawer if it pans out, but first and foremost will be monitoring Mikolas’ rehab efforts. He’s still only playing catch from flat ground, so he’ll need to progress to throwing off a mound, throwing his breaking pitches and eventually building up to a starter’s workload. Ideally, he’ll be in the mix to start one of the Cardinals’ first games of the season, but as already illustrated, the organization has plenty of depth in the event of a setback.
Mikolas is entering the first season of a four-year, $68MM extension that he inked last spring. He’s owed a $15.75MM salary in each season of the deal, plus the prorated portion of a $5MM signing bonus to be paid each January over the life of the deal.
Chris Sale Begins Throwing Program
Red Sox ace Chris Sale has begun a throwing program at the team’s spring complex, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. It’s the first throwing action for the left-hander since he was diagnosed with a flexor strain earlier this month.
Sale’s health has been an ongoing point of discussion for upwards of 18 months in Boston. The southpaw spent two stints on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation late in the 2018 season, but the Sox were convinced of his health last spring when signing him to a five-year, $145MM contract extension. Concerns escalated when Sale experienced a dip in velocity early in the ’19 season and pitched to an alarming 6.30 ERA through the end of April.
However, Sale’s velocity trended back up, and over his next 15 starts, he looked like his vintage self: 93 2/3 innings of 3.27 ERA ball with a sensational 150-to-22 K/BB ratio. Three of his next four (and final four) starts of the season were clunkers, though, and Sale went on the shelf for the remainder of the season on Aug. 17.
Sale was cleared of ligament damage last August and underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection as well as a six-week period of rest and rehab. The lefty went through an offseason throwing program but was slowed by pneumonia early in camp before undergoing an MRI that revealed the flexor strain he’s currently battling. He’s been cleared of ligament damage, but Speier notes that surgery to repair the flexor issue remains a possibility if the throwing program doesn’t go well.
The Red Sox are paying Sale $30MM in 2020 — the first season of his front-loaded extension. The delayed start to the 2020 season could give him an opportunity to return to health prior to Opening Day (the date of which remains unclear) — an outcome that didn’t appear possible just weeks ago. That would be a substantial boost for the Red Sox, as their rotation behind the lefty is mired with question marks. Eduardo Rodriguez is presently projected to get the Opening Day nod. He’ll be followed by Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez and a yet-to-be-determined fourth and fifth starter. If Sale is healthy, the Sox would only need to fill one spot; Collin McHugh (who is also on the mend), Ryan Weber, Matt Hall, Kyle Hart and Mike Shawaryn are among the in-house options.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
MLB Teams Each Pledge $1 Million To Cover Lost Wages For Park Employees During Shutdown
All 30 Major League clubs have established $1MM funds to cover the lost wages of their gameday and event staffs during the league-wide shutdown, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). MLB commissioner Rob Manfred offered the following statement on the teams’ actions (Twitter thread via Joel Sherman of the New York Post):
Over the past 48 hours, I have been approached by representatives of all 30 clubs to help assist the thousands of ballpark employees affected by the delay in the start of the Major League Baseball season. Motivated by desire to help some of the most valuable members of the baseball community, each Club has committed $1 million. The individual clubs will be announcing more details surrounding this support effort in their local communities. The timing of these announcements will vary because of the need to coordinate with state and local laws as well as collective bargaining obligations in an effort to maximize the benefits realized by each group of employees. I am proud that our clubs came together so quickly and uniformly to support these individuals who provide so much to the game we love.
It’s a nice gesture of goodwill and solidarity by all 30 teams, as thousands of ballpark employees throughout the league saw their livelihoods impacted and threatened by the absence of games being played. There are still, of course, other issues to address — namely the manner in which minor league players will be compensated during the hiatus.
As covered here earlier today, non-40-man players aren’t protected by the MLBPA and are currently set to go without their already meager salaries during the unexpected work stoppage. Some clubs — the Rays, Mets and Dodgers among them — are allotting a $400 weekly stipend through the end of the month, although that’s a temporary solution to a much larger-scale problem.
Justin Verlander Undergoes Surgery To Repair Groin Injury
The Astros announced Tuesday that right-hander Justin Verlander underwent a surgical procedure on his right groin. He’d been slowed by a lat strain earlier this month, but Verlander was also scratched from an earlier spring start due to tightness in his groin. That was deemed a precautionary measure at the time, but general manager James Click revealed today that the right-hander had a setback in rehabbing the issue.
“The hope was that physical therapy would be the proper course of action,” Click told reporters (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). “However, after a recent setback in his rehab, the medical staff recommended that a surgical procedure was necessary. The early prognosis is that Justin will be out for about six weeks.”
With the season pushed back at least eight weeks — quite likely longer than that — Verlander should have ample time to get back up to speed once players are cleared to resume training and once a firm target date for Opening Day is established.
Verlander’s health is paramount for the Astros more than ever, now that Gerrit Cole and (to a lesser extent) Wade Miley have departed via free agency. Houston’s 2020 roster is pricey enough that they’ll face luxury-tax penalties for the first time, and the front office opted to spend the limited resources afforded by owner Jim Crane to bring back catcher Martin Maldonado and reliever Joe Smith.
The hope is certainly that a returning Lance McCullers Jr. and young righty Jose Urquidy, whose stock soared in 2019, can join Verlander and Greinke in comprising a formidable top four. Offseason acquisition Austin Pruitt and holdovers like Brad Peacock, Josh James and Framber Valdez could all be in the mix for starts in the final rotation slot. Right-hander Rogelio Armenteros could eventually be in the mix, although he recently underwent surgery to have a bone spur removed from his elbow. Unlike Verlander, he’ll be sidelined for around four months, so he wouldn’t be an option to pitch until July at the earliest. Given the uncertainty regarding Opening Day, it’s anyone’s guess as to what point in the season that’ll be — or if the season will have even started.
Rebound Candidate: Chris Archer
There’s little getting around the fact that the Pirates set back their franchise by years when trading Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz for Chris Archer prior to the 2018 trade deadline. The move had a cascading series of implications for the organization and quite likely contributed to the ousting of GM Neal Huntington, manager Clint Hurdle and pitching coach Ray Searage to varying extents. The Archer trade was bad. It cannot be undone. But is Archer a sunk cost? I’m not so certain of that.
When looking at Archer’s struggles in Pittsburgh, it’s worth noting that the Pirates asked him to dust off a two-seamer/sinker that he hadn’t thrown since 2014. The Pirates’ fascination with two-seamers was nothing new; it was a pitch they preferred all their pitchers to incorporate into their arsenals — sometimes to their detriment. Glasnow himself opened up about this when he called the Pirates “behind the times” in a revealing interview with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey — a piece that serves as a rather damning indictment on the prior regime in Pittsburgh, which was once renowned for unearthing hidden pitching value.
A quarter of the pitches Glasnow threw with the Pirates in 2017 were sinkers. He scrapped the pitch entirely with Tampa Bay. Nearly 18 percent of the pitches Gerrit Cole threw in five seasons with Pittsburgh were sinkers; he threw 13 total sinkers in 2019 with the Astros and nearly won a Cy Young Award. Glasnow also indicated that the Pirates emphasized pitching down and in rather than at the top of the strike zone; a look at Jordan Lyles‘ heatmaps reveals that when deviated from that gameplan upon being traded to the Brewers he found quite a bit more success.
This isn’t to say the two-seamer-heavy approach never worked. As Mackey observed in his interview, there were indeed success stories — Francisco Liriano and J.A. Happ among them. But teams have increasingly moved away from shoehorning every pitcher on their roster into the same organizational pitching philosophy when it’s clearly not working for a certain pitcher.
To the Pirates’ credit, they eventually did allow Archer to scrap his sinker in 2019 — and the overall results still weren’t great. He posted a 4.65 ERA in 12 sinker-free starts. But looking beyond ERA, there was more reason to be optimistic. Archer posted a 5.85 ERA, a 6.07 FIP and a 4.93 xFIP while incorporating the sinker into his repertoire until mid-June of this past season. Upon ditching that pitch? He sat at 4.42/3.78/3.70 in those same measures. He also induced substantially more swings and misses and seemed to control his arsenal more effectively:
| K% | BB% | First-Pitch-Strike% | K-BB% | SwStr% | Chase% | |
| Archer w/ sinker | 23.9% | 11.4% | 58.1% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 29.8% |
| Archer w/out sinker | 31.2% | 9.3% | 65.4% | 21.9% | 13.7% | 34.0% |
Once he scrapped the sinker, Archer walked fewer hitters, worked ahead in more counts and generally looked like a superior pitcher. Archer also saw his home-run rate plummet from 2.37 HR/9 to 1.31 HR/9 once he changed up his pitch mix — and it’s important to point out that homers were never a major problem for him prior to this past season’s juiced ball environment. Archer entered the 2019 season with a career 1.01 HR/9 mark and saw that number skyrocket to 1.88 on the year. Again, his sinker contributed; about one percent of Archer’s non-sinker offerings were hit for home runs. Five of the 203 sinkers he threw wound up going over the fence (2.5 percent).
We’re looking at a small sample, but it’s clear that Archer’s sinker was an awful pitch for him in 2019. He might not be an ace even if he goes back to a full season of four-seamers, but the non-sinker version of Archer in 2019 was a perfectly passable pitcher. And if the ball reverts to a more traditional composition and Archer’s home-run rate backs down toward his career levels, he might even look more like the pitcher the Pirates hoped they were acquiring when surrendering Glasnow, Meadows and Baz in that deal. (Alas, even if that does come to pass, it’s exceedingly difficult to imagine the scales of the deal tipping all the way back to Pittsburgh’s direction.)
The manner in which Archer is able to capitalize on what seems likely to be a four-seam-heavy approach will be critical for the fate of both Archer himself and the Pirates. Archer’s $9MM option for 2020 was something of a no-brainer given the hefty $1.75MM buyout and the fact that his contract contained a second club option. The option decision on him this winter is far less in his favor. Pittsburgh (or more likely another club) will hold an $11MM option over Archer with a much smaller $250K buyout. The 2020 option decision was a net $7.25MM call, but it’ll be a $10.75MM call next winter. That’s probably not getting picked up if he looks more like a rebound candidate than a bona fide big league starter.
Archer’s performance, of course, also has significant impact for the Pirates’ future. If he’s throwing well early in the season — whenever that may be — and looks like he’s back to his old ways (or, ideally, better than ever), Archer will become a premier trade chip. If he looks more like first-half Archer from 2019, the Bucs might simply look to dump his salary in a “take what you can get” type of deal.
MLB Further Delays Opening Day In Accordance With CDC Recommendations
Following last night’s recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Major League Baseball has issued a new statement confirming that Opening Day will be delayed considerably later than the original April 9 date:
Today Commissioner Robert D. Manfred, Jr. conducted a conference call with the 30 Clubs of Major League Baseball. Following last night’s newly updated recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) restricting events of more than 50 people for the next eight weeks, the opening of the 2020 regular season will be pushed back in accordance with that guidance.
MLB will keep fans updated on decisions regarding plans for the 2020 schedule in the days and weeks ahead. The Clubs remain committed to playing as many games as possible when the season begins. We will continue to monitor ongoing events and undertake the precautions and best practices recommended by public health experts, and urge all baseball fans to follow suit. MLB extends its best wishes to all the individuals and communities who have been impacted by the coronavirus.
Eight weeks from the CDC’s new guidelines last night will push things back until May 10, although there’s no indication that that’s a firm target date. Players will surely need a second installment of Spring Training to ramp back up for game readiness, and the restrictions on the size of gatherings could (and likely will) apply to exhibition contests as well. Even that May 10 date could be optimistic insofar as resuming exhibition play; USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted earlier today that multiple general managers are bracing for a delay that could extend into July.
As for the “playing as many games as possible when the season begins,” that remains a challenge in its own right. Manfred said on the aforementioned conference call that owners are still hoping to play a full schedule, although characterizing that as “difficult to envision” would be putting things mildly. Even a Memorial Day start time feels somewhat optimistic at present, and that would push the standard six-month season calendar back into December. Some stadiums, of course, are domed or have retractable roofs, which could aid in playing games late in the year when weather conditions are a concern, but there are myriad logistical challenges that would go along with playing games in neutral settings as necessary late in the year.
Some have suggested vastly increasing the number of doubleheaders played throughout the season, but one can imagine substantial pushback from the MLBPA on that front. The season already has very few off-days (relative to the number of games played), and increasing workload in an effort to reduce the overall length of schedule represents a heightened injury risk.
As has been the case since the the initial two-week delay was announced last week, the unknowns overwhelmingly outweigh the certainties. There’s no immediate means of accurately forecasting the rate at which the coronoavirus will spread — at least not in such a long-term scope. The league and union will surely take the downtime to discuss matters such as scheduling, player salaries, service time, postponing the draft and All-Star Game, pushing back the trade deadline and countless other situations necessitated by the unprecedented slate of delays. As for when Opening Day will actually take place, there’s just no clear way of accurately projecting that at this time.