Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut held a live chat today, dishing out advice on Paul Skenes, Wyatt Langford, Corbin Carroll, and many more.
As explained here, we have been writing Trade Rumors Front Office originals such as this one for the last four years or so, but moving forward they'll be available on the website and not just in subscribers' inboxes. In the near future, expect to see roughly six such paywalled posts per week here on MLBTR. This week's mailbag explores the logic behind a Mason Miller trade, the Giants' slow start, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s true talent level, potential rotation upgrades for the Orioles, musings about the White Sox and Angels, and a look at Kim Ng's tenure as Marlins GM.
Phillip asks:
Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg are amazing, and totally wasted on the A's right now, despite them playing better than expected. But any trade would best be for solid prospects-SEVERAL solid prospects- who are 2-3 seasons away instead of MLB-ready guys who would also be wasted on the current and near-future teams. Given that, what team has those far away prospects to pay for one of those splendid slingers? Not Baltimore, more's the pity.
This brings up a philosophical question: should bad teams have nice things? Mason Miller provides a reason to watch the A's, and his season has been insane so far. And while he's under team control through the 2029 season, we can't count on him to hold up or on this franchise to be willing to pay him those last few years if he does.
So the cold-hearted logical answer is for the A's to trade Miller as soon as possible, as he might be at peak value and could be a lot less valuable the next time this organization has a realistic shot at contending. (I am aware that the A's are not awful so far this year at 15-17, but I do not think they have a realistic chance at making the playoffs anytime soon).
It's worth considering that Miller was a starter in college and all through the minors. He came down with a "mild UCL sprain" in mid-May of last year, which involved a four-month recovery period and short appearances when he returned in September.
A's GM David Forst explained to MLB.com's Martin Gallegos last December that he'd like to see Miller stay healthy for a year as a reliever before the team considers moving him back into a starting role. When a pitcher excels as a closer to the degree Miller has thus far, it's often hard to get him out of that role, but if he can eventually transition back to starting, he could theoretically be even more valuable. But given last year's UCL sprain and the attrition rate of the game's hardest throwers, there's a pretty good case that Miller is indeed at peak value right now.
I don't know where the hell the A's are going to be (as an organization) in 2026, when Miller will receive his first arbitration salary. Given the extra uncertainty around the franchise these next few years, Phillip's case makes some sense: trade Miller (and/or Erceg) now for prospects who are several years away from the Majors.
The problem with this idea is that a prospect's uncertainty is higher the further away he is from the Majors. Trading Miller this summer might require threading the following needles:
Four years ago, I created our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription service. Facing some challenges with the online advertising revenue model, we launched a premium version of MLBTR with a paid subscription. For $29.89 per year, a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription removes ads on all our sites and in our app, grants access to tools such as the Contract Tracker and Agency Database, and provides exclusive articles and chats from Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, and Nicklaus Gaut. I think we’re offering great value for the price.
To date, the exclusive articles and chats have been delivered entirely via email. This has resulted in a missed benefit for new subscribers, who had no access to previously-sent articles. Sometimes people sign up specifically because they hear about a certain Front Office original we sent out. They would inquire about it and I’d forward the email to them along with other recent exclusives. This was not an efficient system, so I’ve decided to create an archive of Trade Rumors Front Office articles on MLBTR itself. New subscribers will be able to go back and check out previous content as soon as they sign up.
This will be accomplished in the form of a paywall. Roughly once per day on average, a paywalled Trade Rumors Front Office article or live chat will appear on MLBTR. We averaged 16.6 posts per day on MLBTR last year, to give you a sense of how often you’ll run into this paywall. If you’re a logged-in subscriber, you will not see the paywall. Everyone else will see just a snippet of the article before running into it.
Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers will continue to receive these articles via email as well. If you’re a subscriber and you decide you no longer need the emails because the articles are on the website, you can go here and unsubscribe from emails as needed. We have not yet built the paywall technology in our iOS and Android apps, so the exclusive articles will not appear there. If you’re an app user and paid subscriber you’ll want to continue receiving the emails.
Putting these Front Office articles on MLBTR is not just about creating an archive. It will also serve as marketing for the subscription service. A portion of MLBTR readers are interested in paying to read these articles, and I don’t think it makes sense to hide them. Some people will see the topics and read an excerpt and be convinced to subscribe. If that may apply to you, I should point out that it’s risk-free, in that we offer a 100% money-back guarantee if you’re unsatisfied for any reason.
Others will choose not to subscribe, whether due to lack of interest or their financial situation. Our ad-supported readers remain appreciated and vital to this website. It’s worth pointing out that the core function of MLBTR is not changing. We’re still going to curate, contextualize, and analyze news from the around the game in real-time and provide up-to-the-minute transaction breakdowns as we have since 2005. That remains free and ad-supported. The Trade Rumors Front Office articles that will appear on this site are opinion and analysis-based, as you’ll see. We have no intention of paywalling news posts, which would not make sense.
We’re producing six Trade Rumors Front Office MLB articles/chats per week at present, two of which are fantasy baseball-centric. Could the number increase from six? It’s possible we’ll paywall additional opinion and analysis posts, particularly time-intensive ones such as our Offseason in Review and Offseason Outlook series.
Whether you’re a Trade Rumors Front Office subscriber or someone who enjoys the free ad-supported MLB Trade Rumors, you’re welcome here. After 18+ years we’re still going strong, and it’s a privilege to be able to do this for a living. Thanks for reading, and feel free to ask questions in the comment section.
In early March, we rolled out improvements to MLBTR’s search functionality. As I mentioned at the time, in the process we eliminated a somewhat inconvenient Teams menu that had been in the navigation bar on the mobile website. To review, the new way to get to the team page is to type a few letters of that team name into the search box. You can start with the city name or the team name. Usually about three or four letters does the trick:
That’ll bring you to our team archive, with all posts tagged with that club in chronological order:
Based on reader suggestions, we have created two additional ways to access team rumors. The first utilizes the favorite teams you have selected in your MLBTR account. Here’s how to select your favorite teams.
First, create a free commenter account on MLBTR if you don’t already have one. Then, once you’re logged in (assuming you’re on a mobile device), tap the three lines icon in the upper right, then the dropdown for My Account, and then Choose Your Favorite Teams:
We’re going to make some improvements to simplify the Favorite Team picker, which currently shows NFL teams by default. But for now, on the left you’ll see MLB, so tap that. Scroll to the team(s) you want and select them. Then hit Save:
After you save your favorite teams, navigate back to mlbtraderumors.com in your browser. Go to the flame menu up top. You’ll see that the first entry is now a link to the team rumors pages of your favorites. This will show up to three favorite teams for a given sport.
So those are two options to reach a team’s rumor page: type it into the search bar, or favorite it and access it via the flame menu. We have also brought back the original way: choosing a team from a list of all of them. To do so, go to the three lines icon in the upper right, then hit the dropdown for Teams. You’ll see all 30 teams listed by division, with minimal need for scrolling. Tap a team and you’ll go to its rumor page.
After you land on a team rumor page, you can also hit your browser’s Back button to return to this list of all 30 and select a different team.
If you’re on the MLBTR mobile website, you now have three different ways to navigate to a team’s rumor page. Enjoy!
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In the midst of his rehab from Tommy John surgery, the two-time American League MVP has relied on PRO 3.0 to assist in recovery, consistently tracking performance and ensuring a confident return to the mound without causing further injury.
“Since my pitching rehab started, I check to see if my pitching data matches the intention that I am throwing. I think being able to check the data helps smooth out my rehab process.
While the two-way player rehabs on the pithing side, he has stepped into the role as designated hitter for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season. Based on recent comments by Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, it doesn’t seem like he’ll be pitching anytime this year.
“We’ll see how that progression goes,” Roberts said. “If his arm is healthy enough, we’ll have that conversation in the field. I do know he’s not gonna pitch this year. But right now, our only focus is him being a designated hitter.”
Ohtani has an MLB-leading 36 hits in 115 plate appearances so far as the Dodgers’ DH, good for an MLB-best .364 batting average. So far in the early going, he has six home runs, 14 RBI, and 20 runs scored.
Ohtani embodies the spirit of what Rapsodo stands for. He dares to defy tradition, proving you’re never too young to follow your dreams and play the game on your own terms. He shows the world the power that data and technology has on the game, and with it, anyone can be a record-breaking, two-way force at ANY level of baseball.
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The Cubs retained Cody Bellinger at a bargain price, replaced Marcus Stroman, found a potential first base solution, and supplemented their bullpen – all while staying below the first competitive balance tax threshold.
Major League Signings
Options Exercised
Trades and Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
Notable Losses
The Cubs’ offseason kicked off with an important choice by starting pitcher Marcus Stroman on November 4th: he decided to opt out of the remaining one year and $21MM left on his contract. This created financial flexibility and a vacant rotation spot, making some sort of starting pitching addition feel inevitable.
The following day, the Cubs locked in a rotation spot by making the expected decision to exercise Kyle Hendricks’ $16.5MM club option. They also picked up the $6MM option on catcher Yan Gomes.
Then the Cubs made a move few people saw coming: they brought in Craig Counsell as manager, which required the largest contract in MLB history for that job both in terms of total and average annual value. David Ross was fired in the process. Counsell had managed the Brewers for nearly nine years, taking them to the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. Counsell is regarded as one of the game’s better managers, and he often succeeded despite below-average payrolls in Milwaukee.
The stunning Counsell-for-Ross move conjured memories of Theo Epstein’s opportunistic switch nine years prior from Rick Renteria to Joe Maddon. The Cubs’ signature player acquisition that offseason was the signing of Jon Lester, ranked second on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list. After the Counsell hiring, it was natural to wonder if Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer would deliver an additional offseason prize such as Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The Cubs did show interest in some of the offseason’s biggest names. Reports suggest they made a real effort to sign Ohtani before he landed with the Dodgers on a heavily-deferred ten-year, $700MM deal, though the Cubs weren’t seemingly a finalist. According to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez and Jeff Passan, as Ohtani’s free agency drew to a close, agent Nez Balelo “proposed the same deal to at least three other teams,” the Giants, Blue Jays, and Angels. As late as December 5th, Hoyer shot down a report that the Cubs’ optimism on Ohtani had waned, but it probably should have been waning around then. The Cubs are not mentioned in that Gonzalez/Passan insider account of the signing. Whether the Cubs dropped out due to an unwillingness to meet Ohtani’s asking price or due to his preference to play elsewhere remains unknown.
Though Hoyer saw Yamamoto on a September scouting trip to Japan, the Cubs were largely absent from reports about his offseason free agent pursuit. The reporting on Yamamoto’s free agency provided no indication that the Cubs met with Yamamoto or made an offer. It is known that both New York teams made strong offers to Yamamoto, who of course wound up joining Ohtani on the Dodgers. There isn’t much indication that the Cubs could have reasonably won the bidding for Yamamoto, nor that they tried to.
Likewise, the Cubs may have had interest in then-Padres outfielder Juan Soto, but if so they kept it quiet in the rumor mill. Soto differed from Ohtani and Yamamoto in that it wasn’t up to the player – that prize went to the team that made the best offer. Soto was a bit of a tough fit for a Cubs team with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked in at the outfield corners.
One major trade target that made ample sense was Tyler Glasnow of the Rays. According to Ken Rosenthal and Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, “the Cubs remained in the Glasnow talks until the end, but were not willing to make a comparable offer” to the Dodgers’ proposal of Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca. Glasnow’s preferences also mattered. As Rosenthal and Ardaya put it, “He effectively could rule out certain teams by telling [Rays president of baseball operations Erik] Neander he would only stay with them for one season before entering free agency.” The Cubs probably could’ve offered enough to land Glasnow for 2024, but they would not necessarily have been able to sign him to an extension.
Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee was quietly on the Cubs’ radar as well, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. Like so many of this offseason’s big names, Lee wound up in the NL West.
As 2023 drew to a close, Cubs fans’ dreams of Ohtani, Yamamoto, Soto, or Glasnow had been dashed. The team had added a managerial star, but nothing else.
A pair of key moves came within a three-day span in January. First, the Cubs signed 30-year-old southpaw Shota Imanaga to a four-year, $53MM deal. The team also owes a posting fee of at least $9.825MM to his former team, the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. Imanaga will earn $23MM for his first two seasons with the Cubs, after which the team must decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering his age 32-34 seasons. If they do so, it’d bring Imanaga’s total to five years and $80MM, similar to preseason contract projections. If the Cubs decline, Imanaga will have a $15MM player option for ’26. If exercised, the Cubs will have to decide on two years and $42MM for 2027-28. If the Cubs decline their first option, Imanaga exercises his ’26 player option, and the Cubs decline their 2027-28 option, the pitcher has another $15MM option for ’27.
It’s a fairly complicated structure that offers the Cubs some measure of protection as opposed to the $80MM guarantee a starter like Eduardo Rodriguez received. Early returns on Imanaga suggest he can perform as a mid-rotation starter, in which case his contract represents a solid deal for the Cubs. I don’t blame the Cubs for preferring Imanaga on his contract to Stroman at $21MM for one year or $37MM for two.
First base was a clear need for the Cubs, and they reportedly entertained a traditional solution in Rhys Hoskins as well as an interesting one in Josh Naylor. Eventually, though, Hoyer made an addition no one saw coming by trading prospects for the Dodgers’ Michael Busch, as well as reliever Yency Almonte. Busch, an MLB-ready 26-year-old rookie, comes with six years of control remaining. He won’t even be paid an arbitration salary until 2027, and he’s under team control for a total of six more years. If Busch develops into the above average hitter his scouting reports and Triple-A work suggest, this will become an inspired pickup by the Cubs.
The Cubs inked Hector Neris to a one-year deal in late January, at a $9MM salary a bit beyond Hoyer’s typical comfort zone for relievers. At that point, the Cubs could have considered their offseason done. They’d replaced Stroman, found a first base solution, and supplemented the bullpen.
Cody Bellinger has been conspicuously absent from this post thus far, and that’s because Bellinger reportedly sought $200MM or more on a long-term deal. Back in November, I thought he’d get it, and not from the Cubs. I also felt that the Cubs’ motivation on Bellinger would be limited, given the presence of slick-fielding center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. There were signs the Cubs lacked full confidence in running PCA out to begin the season, however. Two, specifically: their interest in Jung Hoo Lee and Kevin Kiermaier.
So the Cubs hung back and remained opportunistic on Bellinger. As late as February 19th, owner Tom Ricketts said, “There has been some discussions but it hasn’t become a negotiation yet,” calling out agent Scott Boras to get serious. About a week later, Bellinger’s deal with the Cubs was done, at a mere $80MM guarantee over three years. Yes, there’s downside risk in that Bellinger will only forgo his two opt-outs if he performs poorly. But if he plays well again this year and opts out, the Cubs will have only committed $30MM. The Bellinger signing lengthens the Cubs’ lineup and pushes Crow-Armstrong back to Triple-A. Bellinger can also slide over to first base should circumstances warrant it.
Ricketts made his position on payroll clear in that February 19th interview: “We’re right there at CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) levels. It’s kind of our natural place for us. That should be enough to win our division and be consistent every year.” That was before the Bellinger signing; with him, the Cubs are estimated at about $234MM, only $3MM below the first CBT threshold to which Ricketts referred.
As the calendar turned to March, the Cubs were presented with a slew of opportunities to jump on further Boras surprise bargains and push the team from “should be enough to win our division” to “likely to win our division.” Likely because of Ricketts’ unwillingness to push payroll past its current point (an estimated 10th in MLB), the Cubs passed on several big name free agents they very much could have used.
Matt Chapman was next off the board, signing a three-year, $54MM deal with the Giants that included a pair of opt-outs. Chapman would have been a “nice-to-have” for the Cubs, plugging in at third base and pushing Christopher Morel mostly to the DH spot. It’s possible Chapman’s comfort in the Bay Area meant the Cubs would have had to go higher than the Giants, however. The Cubs’ current plan seems to be mixing and matching at third base with Morel, Nick Madrigal, and Patrick Wisdom.
The Giants also seized the opportunity to sign Blake Snell at two years and $62MM with an opt out. Snell made a lot of sense at this price for the Cubs, though both he and Chapman would’ve required the Cubs to forfeit their second-round draft pick. Jordan Montgomery remained on the market, however, and he would not require draft pick forfeiture.
The Cubs’ rotation, when everyone is healthy, will feature Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Jordan Wicks. There is reason to believe this is not a collection of five 180-inning pitchers. Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and Drew Smyly are additional options to cover the inevitable injuries, such as the current ones to Steele and Taillon. Signing Montgomery to a one-year, $25MM deal and pushing everyone down a spot was an opportunity the Cubs should’ve jumped on. Instead Montgomery landed with the Diamondbacks, a team Ricketts would like to emulate, because, “You don’t have to have the highest payroll or the biggest stars. If you’re playing well, anybody can beat anybody. I was happy for the Diamondbacks.”
If the Cubs face any kind of starting pitching depth problem this year, and Snell and Montgomery are useful pitchers, it will be pretty easy to point to their availability in March. To be fair, the same can be said of many teams.
Once everyone is healthy, the Cubs’ rotation looks decent, and their offense looks fairly deep. The club also features strong defense up the middle. They’re right in the middle of an NL Central that currently has all five teams projecting for 80-82 wins. For a lot of teams, that’s good enough.
In early November, we ran our annual free agent prediction contest here at MLBTR. We had 6,135 entrants, which I believe is an all-time record.
The contest concluded last week on Opening Day, with the unsigned Mike Clevinger and Brandon Belt excluded from the results. Tasked with predicting the destinations of our other 48 top free agents, one contestant managed to guess 13 players correctly for a .271 batting average. Congratulations to Jeff Freedman, who correctly predicted where Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Teoscar Hernandez, Lucas Giolito, J.D. Martinez, Jack Flaherty, Reynaldo Lopez, Jason Heyward, and Tim Anderson would sign. Jeff wins $500 for his prognostication abilities.
No one else exceeded 11 correct guesses, which was good for a .229 average. As for the MLBTR staff race, Leo Morgenstern and Nick Deeds beat the rest of us with an excellent nine correct. You can check out the leaderboard here.
The first, second, and third place finishers won cash prizes, and the entire top 15 snagged a free one-year subscription to Trade Rumors Front Office. All winners have been notified, so if you’re in the top 15 on the leaderboard be sure to check the email you used to sign up for the contest. Thanks for playing and we look forward to doing it again next winter!
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In his first offseason as White Sox GM, Chris Getz made four key trades and a series of small free agent deals as the team enters another rebuilding phase.
Major League Signings
2024 spending: $20.8MM
Total spending: $30.05MM
Options Exercised
Trades and Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
Notable Losses
Back in October, I was skeptical of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf saying, “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can,” as part of the justification for hiring internal GM candidate Chris Getz without conducting outside interviews. It was just too tall of an order for a team that lacked talent and has an owner averse to big free agent contracts. Based on the moves Getz ended up making in his first offseason as GM, a quick turnaround and 2024 contention were never actually the goals.
Given Liam Hendriks’ August Tommy John surgery, the White Sox chose to decline his $15MM option for 2024, instead triggering a buyout in the same amount that will be paid out over the next decade. The club also declined their $14MM club option on Tim Anderson, paying a $1MM buyout after finding no takers via trade. This outcome was unsurprising after Anderson’s abysmal 2023. The White Sox opted for a cheap defensive-minded veteran replacement at shortstop, signing free agent Paul DeJong in November. Anderson’s eight-year White Sox career officially ended when he inked a $5MM deal with the Marlins in February.
Though Getz chose to retain manager Pedro Grifol, the Sox did turn over the coaching staff early in the offseason, bringing in Marcus Thames as hitting coach and also adding Grady Sizemore, Drew Butera, Matt Wise, and Jason Bourgeois. Getz also dropped this memorable line to the media: “I don’t like our team.”
Getz would go on to back up that statement by giving the White Sox a major makeover. The first strike happened in mid-November, with reliever Aaron Bummer getting shipped to Atlanta for a five-player package. Taking advantage of Chicago’s lack of depth, four of the five players acquired were on the 40-man roster. It was a whole lot of players the Braves didn’t need. The biggest name, Mike Soroka, may have otherwise wound up non-tendered. But as a $3MM flier for a threadbare White Sox rotation, Soroka fits. Shuster provides another backend rotation candidate; he’ll start the season at Triple-A. Given that Bummer was coming off a 6.79 ERA and rebuilding teams don’t have much need for decently-compensated relievers anyway, sending him off for depth pieces was a solid first trade for Getz.
The White Sox’s biggest free agent offseason expenditure came during the Winter Meetings with the signing of Erick Fedde. The former Nationals top prospect, now 31, rejuvenated his career in South Korea in 2023. Now he’s a key part of Chicago’s rotation. The Fedde signing seems like a reasonable play for innings, with a hint of upside for a sub-4.00 ERA season. This is very much a Rotation of Opportunity in 2024. Perhaps nothing demonstrates that better than Garrett Crochet getting the Opening Day nod. As James Fegan noted at Sox Machine, Crochet has 73 big league innings to his name, “it’s his first time back in [the starting pitcher] routine since essentially his sophomore year of college, and Tommy John surgery rehab and a shoulder strain didn’t make 2023 a typical platform year from the bullpen.”
A veteran backup catcher was on Getz’s shopping list this winter, given the inexperience of Korey Lee and Edgar Quero. He found one in another deal with the Braves, who were serving as a way station for Max Stassi. The White Sox are only on the hook for $740K of Stassi’s $7MM salary this year, so he makes for a low-risk addition. Several weeks later, the White Sox inked Martin Maldonado to a one-year deal, possibly stifling an opportunity for Lee or Quero assuming Stassi sticks. Logically, if one of the young catchers seems ready this summer, one or both veterans will be traded.
In January, news came that Reinsdorf is seeking a new stadium for the White Sox in the South Loop. Everything so far has been standard: a request for over a billion dollars in public money, promises of an economic boom around a new stadium, questionable reasoning about why the current stadium won’t work, and a vague threat that the team could be moved. All of this is outside the scope of our Offseason In Review series, but the ballpark situation figures to hang over the team for the foreseeable future.
In February, Getz added Dominic Fletcher in a trade with the Diamondbacks, hopefully filling the Sox’s long-standing right field vacancy in the process. Fletcher, 26, hit well in limited action as a rookie with Arizona last year. Coming into the 2023 season, Baseball America rated Fletcher as a 40-grade prospect with a strong glove and a “line-drive swing with average bat speed.” Projection systems suggest Fletcher’s bat is not currently MLB-caliber, despite his brief success in ’23. Still, the bar is astoundingly low here, as the White Sox haven’t had their primary right fielder post a 1-WAR season since Avisail Garcia in 2017. Fletcher may have the right field job out of the gate, though minor league signing Kevin Pillar will likely be lurking as his potential platoon partner or backup.
The Fletcher addition fits with Getz’s stated goal of improving the team’s defense. Aside from Fletcher, the Sox have improved up the middle with DeJong, Nicky Lopez, and Maldonado. Groundballers like Fedde and Soroka should appreciate that, and defense is generally much cheaper on the market than offense. Of course, a tradeoff has been made, as offensive expectations for Fletcher, DeJong, Lopez, and Maldonado are quite low.
On the same day as the Fletcher trade, Getz dealt his best reliever, Gregory Santos, to the Mariners for Prelander Berroa, Zach DeLoach, and the #69 pick in this year’s draft. The two prospects project as a potential setup man and a fourth outfielder if things go well, and the draft pick will further boost organizational depth. With dim prospects in the short-term, trading away relievers for quality prospects is usually a good move. DeLoach may not have the ideal arm for right field, but as a 25-year-old who played 138 games at Triple-A last year, he could push Fletcher for playing time this year.
Of course, those departures leave the White Sox with one of the game’s shakiest-looking bullpens. New additions Steven Wilson, John Brebbia, and Tim Hill will see high-leverage work. The idea of Michael Kopech in the rotation seems to have been abandoned, and the once-highly-regarded righty will try to find success in relief.
Dylan Cease was the undercurrent of Getz’s entire offeason. With two years of control remaining, Cease was seemingly shopped all winter. Getz waited out the acquisitions of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Lucas Giolito, Chris Sale, Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman, and Corbin Burnes, all pitchers who had crossover with Cease’s market. Blake Snell didn’t reach an agreement until March 18th, and as of this writing Jordan Montgomery remains available. The Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals, Reds, Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Orioles, and Rangers were linked to Cease at various points, but it was the Padres who swooped in to make a late deal on March 13th.
As I wrote in my subscriber-only mailbag last week, comparing the trade to the handful of rare precedents, I like the deal for the White Sox. Aside from Wilson, something of a throw-in, Getz acquired three prospects graded 50 or 55 for Cease. Looking at deals made for James Paxton, Joe Musgrove, and Gerrit Cole, teams generally fell short of that return.
Without Cease, the White Sox rotation has the potential to be awful. RosterResource currently projects Crochet, Fedde, Soroka, Chris Flexen, and Nick Nastrini as the starting five. Drew Thorpe, perhaps the key piece in the Cease trade, has a great opportunity here, but did not help his short-term chances with yesterday’s spring training outing. The projected White Sox rotation has produced exactly two good Major League seasons to date: Soroka’s 4-WAR effort in 2019, and Flexen’s 3-WAR 2021.
Trading Cease is something of a concession the White Sox are not going to be good in 2024 or 2025. They’re projected to win 66 games this year, and it’s hard to see them leaping into contention in ’25. Luis Robert may be at peak value coming off a healthy 5-WAR season, and he’s controlled through 2027. A case could be made that if his performance is largely irrelevant on bad teams in ’24 and ’25, and the team might just be turning the corner in ’26, the optimal move is to cash him in now for the maximum return. But the White Sox probably don’t see their timeline that way, and keeping Robert simply as a reason to watch the team is defensible.
Should the White Sox be taking advantage of their low payroll this year to try to add prospect capital? In a mailbag earlier this month, I explored the concept of sign-and-flips by non-contending teams, and we found success stories to be pretty rare in practice. As Anthony Franco put it, “If the guy was any good, he wasn’t signing a low-base MLB deal with a non-contender.” So you might suggest the White Sox should’ve landed one-year free agents like Teoscar Hernandez or Luis Severino with a mind toward flipping them, but those players might not have been interested.
Overall, this was a good first offseason for Getz, who traded three of his more marketable players aside from Robert and got respectable returns. It’s likely he’ll continue to listen on Eloy Jimenez and would trade Yoan Moncada if he has any kind of resurgence. As far as the season ahead, it’s going to be ugly.
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