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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

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Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Waivers, Gleyber, Goldschmidt

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This week's mailbag gets into possible waiver contract dumping, Gleyber Torres' free agency, teams' interest in Trevor Rogers, the Cardinals re-signing Paul Goldschmidt, and much more.

Ben asks:

What teams might we expect to see make some last minute, financially-motivated maneuvers to avoid the consequences of the luxury tax? Do you anticipate any notable players being placed on waivers, such as when Lucas Giolito and Matt Moore were made available last August? Which teams would be in prime position to take advantage of this system?

Joseph asks:

You guys recently did a piece on how players could move post-deadline. Could you envision a scenario where a taxpayer like the Giants fall out of the wild-card race then put a bunch of expensive pending free agents (like Snell or Conforto) on waivers to dump salary in an attempt to duck under the CBT? I remember that happening forever ago with the Angels and Vernon Wells, but never with a star player playing really well like Snell. How crazy would that be for an impact player to get claimed on waivers and influence the playoff race?

Since competitive balance tax penalties are compounding up to the third consecutive time a team goes over, there's benefit to "resetting" and getting under the base tax rate so you can become a first-time payor in 2025.  Doing so requires dipping under $237MM this year.  Failing that, it's still beneficial to avoid going over the second surcharge threshold of $277MM, which triggers your highest available draft pick moving back ten spots.

Additionally, CBT payor status affects the mechanics of losing or signing a qualified free agent.

The Rangers have a case.  Cot's Baseball Contracts has their projected CBT payroll at about $251MM, and they paid the luxury tax last year.  If the Rangers were to fall further out, they could put impending free agents such as Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc, Kirby Yates, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly on waivers.  Though such a scheme could benefit the Rangers, it's possible it could rankle these veteran players, particularly if it serves as an end-run around Scherzer's no-trade rights.  It may be a moot point, as he's on the IL at present, but this could become an option if Scherzer is healthy and actually wants to finish the season with a contender.  The Rangers are five games out in the AL West at the moment.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

By | at

Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker

Support MLBTR’s Writers

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Today marked our 19th trade deadline here at MLB Trade Rumors.  Many of you have been loyal readers since the beginning and have seen how this operation has grown and improved.  During the most frenzied period today, all seven MLBTR writers were on at the same time, writing up trades.

MLBTR largely remains free and ad-supported; that will be the case with all the posts our team writes today.  You may have seen that we’ve been writing additional analysis/opinion-based articles for the last four years, as part of our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription package.

Trade Rumors Front Office generally includes exclusive weekly MLB articles from me, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.  Anthony holds subscriber-only live chats on Fridays as well.  We also include a fantasy baseball component, led by the excellent Nicklaus Gaut.

But wait, there’s more!  We’ve also created a GM-caliber MLB contract tracker tool and agency database, which you can learn more about here.  That’s included with a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription.

On top of all that, a Front Office subscription removes all ads from the website and our app.  So for $29.89 per year, you’re getting exclusive articles, chats, and tools, while removing ads and supporting our team directly.  If you’re still not convinced, check out a ton of real testimonials from current subscribers here.  Sign up for Trade Rumors Front Office today!

Dodgers Acquire Jack Flaherty

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The Dodgers and Tigers are in agreement on a trade sending right-hander Jack Flaherty to Los Angeles, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.  The Tigers will receive catcher/first baseman Thayron Liranzo and shortstop Trey Sweeney, according to Robert Murray of FanSided.  The Dodgers have now officially announced the trade.

After much speculation, the Dodgers add the best pitcher to be traded at the 2024 deadline.  Flaherty, 29 in October, sports a 2.95 ERA in 18 starts this year.  Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, his 32 K% ranks fifth in all of baseball.  He’s also trimmed his walk rate to a career-best 4.6%.

A first-round pick by the Cardinals out of high school a decade ago, Flaherty earned a fifth-place Rookie of the Year finish in 2018.  He followed that up by finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young voting in 2019, capped by a run of 16 starts in which he had a 0.93 ERA.

After stumbling in the shortened COVID season, Flaherty was limited to 78 1/3 innings in 2021 due to oblique and shoulder strains.  The shoulder issues persisted into 2022, a season in which Flaherty pitched just 36 innings.

Flaherty avoided the IL last year, but was ineffective for the Cardinals and was shipped to the Orioles in a deadline trade.  His struggles in Baltimore were enough that the club moved him to the bullpen before the end of the season.

Seeking to rebuild his value and re-enter free agency, Flaherty inked a one-year, $14MM deal with the Tigers last December.  He missed a few starts due to back pain, but otherwise Flaherty has been an ace for the Tigers.  At seven games out in the wild card, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris opted for a pair of prospects from the Dodgers rather than a qualifying offer and draft pick compensation.

With Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the IL for a triceps injury, the Dodgers sought a front of the rotation arm to pair with Tyler Glasnow.  They may have it in Flaherty, and the club also saw Clayton Kershaw make his season debut last week.  Righty Gavin Stone, who opened the season as the Dodgers’ fifth starter, has been a mainstay all year.  Yamamoto may yet return, while Walker Buehler is currently on a rehab assignment for hip inflammation.  Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Emmet Sheehan are all out for the season, pushing rookies Justin Wrobleski and River Ryan into the Dodgers’ rotation.  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman shipped veteran starter James Paxton to the Red Sox last week.

The Dodgers, who also added Kevin Kiermaier, Amed Rosario, Tommy Edman, and Michael Kopech in recent trades, sought an impact arm this month and were also linked to Garrett Crochet of the White Sox.  Crochet, who was not ultimately traded, would’ve fit better with the Dodgers’ hefty payroll, but his October availability was in question.  Flaherty has about $4.67MM left on his contract this year, on which the Dodgers will pay a 110% tax.

The Dodgers had three prospects on Baseball America’s recent top 100 list, and none of them were required to rent Flaherty from the Tigers for the remainder of the season.

Liranzo, 21, has split his time between catcher and first base for the High-A Great Lakes Loons this year.  He’s got a 106 wRC+ in 314 plate appearances this year after raking in A-ball last year.  Liranzo represented the Dodgers at the Futures Game earlier this month.  MLB.com assigned Liranzo a 50 grade, calling him “one of the best young catching prospects in baseball.”  Prior to the season, Baseball America also assigned a 50 grade to the switch-hitting Liranzo, saying he “projects to be an average defender overall” with above-average power and a below-average hit tool.

Sweeney, 24, was drafted 20th overall by the Yankees back in 2021 and was sent to the Dodgers last December in a deal for reliever Victor Gonzalez.  As Oklahoma City’s shortstop, Sweeney has an 87 wRC+ in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this year.  MLB.com gave him a 45 grade, noting that he has “stayed at shortstop longer than most scouts expected.”  BA also put a 45 on Sweeney prior to the season, saying he “has the ceiling of a second-division shortstop.”

Projecting prospects is tricky business, which is why I defer to the experts.  But compared to the returns for Trevor Rogers and Yusei Kikuchi, the Tigers’ side of this trade feels underwhelming.  At any rate, the first-place Dodgers have significantly bolstered their rotation as they look to return to the World Series for the first time in four years.

The Tigers’ rotation now features little beyond Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal, with Reese Olson on the IL with a shoulder injury.  The Tigers seemingly never got close to trading Skubal, though they did move veterans Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly along with Flaherty in the last two days.

Yankees To Acquire Enyel De Los Santos

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The Padres traded reliever Enyel De Los Santos and minor league pitcher Thomas Balboni Jr. to the Yankees for outfielder Brandon Lockridge, according to team announcements.  The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner was first with the deal.

De Los Santos, 28, has a 4.46 ERA, 28.2 K%, 7.6 BB%, and 34.6% groundball rate in 40 1/3 innings for the Padres this year.  He’s been stung by the longball, allowing 11 bombs on the season.  Padres manager Mike Shildt has lost trust in De Los Santos in recent weeks, perhaps due to a 7.62 ERA over his last 14 games.

Signed for $15K by the Mariners out of the Dominican Republic a decade ago, De Los Santos was traded to the Padres in December 2015 in a deal for Joaquin Benoit.  He was dealt to the Phillies a couple years later for Freddy Galvis, making his Major League debut with that team.  De Los Santos went on to log big league innings with the Pirates and Guardians, with the Padres picking him up in last November’s Scott Barlow deal.

De Los Santos is earning $1.16MM this year, and was expendable for the Padres particularly after they added Jason Adam and Tanner Scott in trades.  De Los Santos is under team control through 2026 as an arbitration eligible player.  The Yankees supplemented their bullpen earlier today by acquiring Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs.

The Yankees also add Balboni, a 24-year-old A ball reliever.  Balboni, drafted by the Padres in the 15th round in 2022, owns a 38.2 K% and 12.7 BB% on the season.

Lockridge, 27, was a fifth round pick by the Yankees in 2018.  He’s mostly played center field this year at Triple-A, riding a strong walk rate to a 114 wRC+.  Known for his speed, Lockridge also has 34 stolen bases on the season.

Orioles To Acquire Gregory Soto

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The Phillies traded reliever Gregory Soto to the Orioles, reports Jim Salisbury (on X). Pitching prospect Seth Johnson is going to Philadelphia, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (X link). Pitching prospect Moises Chace is also going to the Phils, reports Todd Zolecki of MLB.com (on X).

Soto, a 29-year-old lefty, has a 4.08 ERA, 26.7 K%, 12.1 BB%, and 50% groundball rate in 35 1/3 innings for the Phillies this year.  Manager Rob Thomson has moved Soto down the bullpen depth chart in recent months, well before the club added Carlos Estevez and Tanner Banks in recent trades.  Still, Soto averages 98.4 miles per hour on his fastball and is under team control next year as an arbitration eligible player.  He’s earning a decent salary of $5MM on the season.  Soto, who came up with the Tigers, joined the Phillies in a January 2023 trade.

With the Phillies’ CBT payroll sitting right around the second luxury tax threshold of $257MM, perhaps he was a luxury in a bullpen with Jeff Hoffman, , Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado, and Estevez.

Just four days ago, the Phillies shipped reliever Seranthony Dominguez to the Orioles for outfielder Austin Hays.  It’s been an interesting pair of swaps between first-place clubs, and with the Orioles turning to the Phillies to supplement their bullpen behind Craig Kimbrel and Yennier Cano.  The Orioles, who also added starters Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers in deadline deals, don’t share the Phillies’ payroll concerns.

Johnson, a 25-year-old righty, sports a 2.63 ERA, 22.6 K%, 13.0 BB%, and 40.4% groundball rate in 18 Double-A starts.  Drafted 40th overall by the Rays in 2019, Johnson went to the Orioles at the trade deadline two years ago in a three-team deal involving Trey Mancini and Jose Siri.  MLB.com gave him a 45 grade, noting, “He maintains the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter, though his age and placement on the 40-man roster could push Johnson into a bullpen role in the short term.”  Prior to the season, Baseball America assigned Johnson a 50 grade and had a similar outlook.

Chace, 21, has mostly had 3-4 inning outings in High-A this year.  He’s missed a healthy amount of bats with a 34.2 K%, but allowed plenty of walks with a 13.5 BB%.  Chace’s pitching coach, Jordie Henry, said to Baseball America’s Jon Meoli, “Even when he does have those [command] hiccups, knowing that we already know his ceiling at this level is really, really exciting.”

White Sox Will Not Trade Garrett Crochet At Deadline

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With seven minutes to go until the 2024 MLB trade deadline, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is reporting that White Sox ace Garrett Crochet will not be traded.

Crochet, a 25-year-old southpaw, has broke out this year with a move to the rotation.  However, his 114 1/3 innings on the season easily exceeds his prior career MLB total.  Recent reports suggested Crochet and his agent have expressed an unwillingness to pitch in October without a contract extension.  The lefty is earning only $800K this year and is under team control through 2026, but his reluctance to pitch into October and ability to do so muddied the waters for White Sox GM Chris Getz.

Interest in Crochet was significant this month, as he leads MLB starters with 4.1 fWAR even with the White Sox backing off his pitch count significantly in his last three starts.  Perhaps the White Sox will shut Crochet down prior to the end of the season, and entertain offers again in the offseason.

Mets Acquire Tyler Zuber From Rays

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The Rays are dealing righty reliever Tyler Zuber to the Mets for minor league reliever Paul Gervase, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (X link).  Reliever Ty Adcock was designated for assignment by the Mets to clear a spot for Zuber, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post.

Zuber, 29, was signed by the Rays to a minor league deal back in May out of the Atlantic League.  After striking out a third of the batters he faced at Triple-A over 21 2/3 innings, the Rays selected his contract nine days ago.  When Zuber took the hill against DJ LeMahieu and the Yankees earlier this month, it marked nearly three years between big league appearances.  Today, he’s been shipped to New York as the Rays make room for Hunter Bigge, acquired in the Isaac Paredes deal with the Cubs.  It appears Zuber may fall just shy of three years of Major League service (and arbitration eligibility) if he stays up with the Mets for the rest of their season and remains on their 40-man roster.

Zuber joins a Mets bullpen that also welcomed Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek in trades this month.  The Mets designated lefty Jake Diekman for assignment yesterday, calling up Matt Gage.  Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns also supplemented the club’s rotation today, adding Paul Blackburn in a trade with the A’s.

Gervase, a 6’10” 24-year-old righty, was drafted by the Mets out of Louisiana State in the 12th round in 2022.  He’s punched out 38% of batters faced at Double-A this year, but also walked 14%.  In his last 13 appearances, he’s whiffed over 41% of batters.  It’s been an interesting journey thus far for Gervase, who you can read more about in this New York Post article by Mark W. Sanchez last October.

Adcock, 27, was drafted by the Mariners in the eighth round back in 2019.  He made his big league debut last year, but was designated for assignment in April of this year.  The Tigers claimed him on waivers, and lost him to the Mets about a month later in another claim.  Adcock made only three appearances for the Mets, most recently allowing six runs in 1 1/3 innings on July 5th at Pittsburgh.  Adcock, who averaged 96.5 miles per hour in his brief big league stint this year, has a 5.24 ERA across three different Triple-A teams this year.

Orioles To Acquire Trevor Rogers

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The Orioles are acquiring southpaw starting pitcher Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.  The Marlins will receive second baseman/outfielder Connor Norby in the deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided.  Miami also gets outfielder Kyle Stowers, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

Rogers marks the Orioles’ second recent rotation addition, after they acquired Zach Eflin from the Rays four days ago.  Rogers, 27 in November, owns a 4.53 ERA, 18.0 K%, 9.7 BB%, and 46.9% groundball rate in 105 1/3 innings this year.  Rogers has a 3.17 ERA over his last nine starts, but with no apparent improvement in his skills.

Rogers was at his best three years ago, when he made the All-Star team and finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting by posting a 2.64 ERA in 133 innings.  He averaged 94.6 miles per hour on his fastball that year, and looked like one of the game’s best young starters.  The lefty had a strong pedigree, as well, having been drafted 13th overall out of high school in 2017.

Things took a turn in 2022, as Rogers’ strikeout rate plummeted and he missed a month with lower back spasms.  That season also ended a bit early due to a lat strain.  2023 was worse, as Rogers’ season ended in April after four starts due to a left biceps strain and a partial tear in his right lat.

Rogers then entered the arbitration system, and is earning $1.53MM this year.  He remains under team control through 2026.  Rogers has avoided the IL thus far this year, but it’ll be up to Orioles pitching coach Drew French and the rest of the staff to attempt to help him regain his 2021 form.  Rogers’ average fastball velocity is down to 92.2 miles per hour this year, a notable 2.4 mile per hour drop from his one stellar season.

Having lost Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells to Tommy John surgery, the first-place Orioles have a rotation of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Eflin, Dean Kremer, and Rogers.  Burnes and Means are eligible for free agency after the season, leaving Rodriguez, Kremer, and new additions Eflin and Rogers for 2025.

The Orioles had been connected to Garrett Crochet and Blake Snell, and could theoretically add one of them in the next three-plus hours, but are likely done with their rotation at this point.  Aside from Eflin and Rogers, Orioles executive vice president and GM Mike Elias also bolstered his bullpen by acquiring Seranthony Dominguez last week.

Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix did quite well in adding a pair of Major League-ready position players for two-plus years of Rogers.

Norby, 24, ranked 93rd on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2023 season.  Prior to this season, BA gave Norby a 50 grade, calling him a “bat-first second baseman” who can also handle left field.  The former 2021 second-rounder has spent most of the season repeating Triple-A, and has shown quite well with a 134 wRC+ in 80 games.  He’s gotten a few brief looks with the Orioles due to Jorge Mateo’s injuries, but has only played in nine big league games so far.  Norby is under the Marlins’ control through 2030 and will likely receive regular playing time at second base for the rest of the season.

Stowers, 26, was drafted by the Orioles in the second round out of Stanford in 2019.  Known for his big raw power from the left side, Stowers has been unable to secure regular playing time on the stacked Orioles since his 2022 debut.  Stowers, who is best-suited for right field, will get that chance with the Marlins.  Like Norby, Stowers has spent most of the season at Triple-A, posting a decent 115 wRC+.

If the Marlins did indeed come up with a pair of controllable regulars for a back-end starter in Rogers, it’ll be quite the win as Bendix makes his mark on the team.

At the time of this writing, Bendix still has three-plus hours remaining to further remake the Marlins, likely by dismantling his bullpen and possibly trading outfielder Bryan De La Cruz.  The team’s 2024 rotation is particularly bare with the departure of Rogers, leaving Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer, and Kyle Tyler.  Jesus Luzardo is working his way back from a lumbar stress reaction, Ryan Weathers is recovering from an index finger strain, and Braxton Garrett is on the IL for a forearm strain.  Next year, the team will get Sandy Alcantara and eventually Eury Perez back from Tommy John surgery.

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