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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | October 22, 2024 at 10:02am CDT

On the heels of one of the worst seasons in baseball history, the White Sox must stockpile young talent while operating under a cloud of uncertainty about the future of the franchise.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Andrew Benintendi, LF: $47.5MM through 2027
  • Luis Robert Jr., CF: $15MM through 2025, with a $20MM club option ($2MM buyout) for 2026 and the same club option for '27

Option Decisions

  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: $25MM club option with a $5MM buyout
  • Max Stassi, C: $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Additional Obligations

  • Owe $1.5MM buyout to released RHP John Brebbia
  • Owe $250K buyout to released C Martin Maldonado

2025 financial commitments: $40.75MM
Total future commitments: $71.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

  • Nicky Lopez (5.139): $5.1MM
  • Matt Foster (4.093): $900K
  • Garrett Crochet (4.028): $2.9MM
  • Enyel De Los Santos (4.015): $1.7MM
  • Andrew Vaughn (4.000): $6.4MM
  • Justin Anderson (3.122): $1.1MM
  • Jimmy Lambert (3.108): $1.2MM
  • Gavin Sheets (3.076): $2.6MM
  • Steven Wilson (3.000): $1MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Lopez, Foster, De Los Santos, Vaughn, Anderson, Lambert, Sheets, Wilson

Free Agents

  • Mike Clevinger, Michael Soroka, Chris Flexen, Danny Mendick, Touki Toussaint

While we knew this team would be bad, we didn't realize it would be historically bad.  The 2024 White Sox set the modern record for total losses with 121, and it easily could have been worse had they not surged to win five of their last six games.  Starting pitchers Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde were the only glimmers of hope, but the latter was traded and the former seems on his way out.

The Sox fired manager Pedro Grifol on August 8th, with Grady Sizemore serving as interim manager for the remainder of the season.  Sizemore is at least under consideration for the full-time job, but the list of known candidates has also included Donnie Ecker, Will Venable, Clayton McCullough, Danny Lehman, George Lombard, A.J. Ellis, Phil Nevin, Daniel Descalso, and Skip Schumaker.  Grifol was Rick Hahn's hire, so the new manager will be the first chosen by senior vice president/GM Chris Getz.

Beyond the managerial change, existential issues loom over the White Sox.  One is whether longtime owner Jerry Reinsdorf intends to sell the team.  On October 16th, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic reported that Reinsdorf is "open to selling" the team, and furthermore, "is in active discussions with a group led by former big leaguer Dave Stewart."  Stewart's involvement has led to speculation about potentially moving the team to Nashville, given the former pitcher's efforts to bring an MLB team to that city.

The Stewart rumor follows January news of Reinsdorf's aim of getting a new stadium built in a (Chicago) South Loop area called "The 78."  A relocation threat is one of the oldest in the new-stadium playbook, of course, and Reinsdorf successfully leveraged a potential move to St. Petersburg back in 1988 to get the current Guaranteed Rate Field built in Chicago.  Back in 1995, Reinsdorf famously said in reference to his St. Petersburg play in a Cigar Aficionado interview, "A savvy negotiator creates leverage. People had to think we were going to leave Chicago."

Moving from Chicago to St. Petersburg hardly made sense in terms of market size, and the same is true of Nashville now.

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Sponsored: Today is World Mental Health Day

By Tim Dierkes | October 10, 2024 at 9:07am CDT

This is a sponsored post from BetterHelp.

Get Matched to the Best Therapist for You. Self-Care is Focusing on Your Mental Health

What’s an important holiday you might not know about? World Mental Health Day on October 10th – encouraging all of us to talk about and take care of our mental health since 1992.

The Mental Health Of Athletes: Statistics, Self-Care, And Support

Athletes often experience high pressure, busy schedules, and exposure to harmful stigmas and stereotypes that can lead to mental health conditions or chronic stress and burnout.

If you’re an athlete, there are various ways you can practice self-care to improve your mental health.

Mental health challenges common in athletes

Up to 35% of elite professional athletes are living with a mental illness, and student-athletes and those who participate in athletics for pleasure are also at risk. Below are statistics on the most common mental health conditions in athletes.

Eating disorders

Eating disorders may be more common in athletes due to pervasive stereotypes about what an athlete’s body “should” look like. In addition, bullying or rejection from teammates, coaches, and team supporters can lead to individuals experiencing fear of shame or the loss of their athlete status if they gain weight, lose muscle, or experience bodily changes.

Depression

One study found that the prevalence of depression in athletes is around 15.6% to 21%. The same study reported that athletes who were at a higher risk of depressive disorders were those with sports injuries, those who had been terminated from their career as athletes, and those rated poorly in performance. Depression can lead to a higher suicide risk in athletes, so therapy is often recommended.

Anxiety

Research by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) found that almost 85% of certified athletic trainers believe anxiety disorders are an issue for student-athletes. Other studies report that sports can lead to high levels of stress and pressure, which can cause anxiety.

Substance use disorders

According to studies, medication and alcohol misuse are the most common forms of substance use in athletes. Athletes may self-medicate due to other mental health challenges, physical pain, or difficulty sleeping. In addition, “sports culture” can sometimes lead to social pressure to drink or take other substances. Breaking down stigmas on a societal and team level can be a way to reduce these challenges.

How to practice self-care as an athlete

If you’re an athlete, whether you practice for fun or are in an elite team, there are a few self-care tips you can consider.

Prioritize mental health as much as physical health

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), mental healthcare can reduce the risk of physical illnesses like heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. To prioritize your mental health, pay attention to what your emotions tell you, learn about self-care, take breaks when needed, and address your stress when it arises.

Challenge harmful practices, stigma, and misconceptions

Stigmas, harmful practices, and misconceptions are common in athletic communities. Below are some ways to challenge these:

  • Refuse substance use if you’re not interested in partaking, and encourage teammates and other athletes to value bodily autonomy
  • Speak up when someone uses a stereotype or stigmatizing term
  • Report abusive or unethical team practices imposed in professional environments
  • Speak up against transphobia in sports
  • Share your own story about mental health and what helped you cope
  • Be open about stress and stress management
  • Take steps to address toxic masculinity in athletics
  • Be accepting of the religious and cultural practices of team members
  • Seek therapy and be open about it with others

Nurture a strong support system

Having a support system can significantly reduce mental health challenges, leading to increased wellness and quality of life and a reduced risk of physical illness. Nurture your support system by ensuring you spend quality time with those you love outside of a sports context.

How to find professional support as an athlete

Therapy can be an effective tool for reducing stress and the chances of mental burnout in athletes. For those facing barriers to in-person therapy, online platforms like BetterHelp may be more accessible. Through an online platform, athletes can access resources like support groups and worksheets and weekly therapy with a provider via phone, video, or live chat.

Studies show that online therapy can be effective in treating conditions commonly seen in athletes, like anxiety and depression. In one study, online therapy was found to be more effective in symptom reduction for these conditions than face-to-face therapy.

Takeaway

For those who are struggling, mental health treatment may be beneficial. Seeking help is not a sign of weakness but strength, and over 41.7 million US adults see a therapist. By talking to a professional, you can develop ways to cope productively with your challenges and potentially receive referrals to other support options, such as psychiatry or support groups.

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | October 8, 2024 at 8:40am CDT

The Cubs enter 2025 with an excellent opportunity to make the playoffs for the first time under Jed Hoyer.  Cody Bellinger's decision will help determine Hoyer's path, but the club will be seeking help at catcher and in the rotation and bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Dansby Swanson, SS: $132MM through 2029
  • Ian Happ, LF: $38MM through 2026
  • Seiya Suzuki, DH/RF: $36MM through 2026
  • Jameson Taillon, SP: $36MM through 2026
  • Nico Hoerner, 2B: $23.5MM through 2026
  • Shota Imanaga, SP: $13MM through 2025, then a $57MM three-year club option or $15MM player option

Option Decisions

  • Cody Bellinger, RF/CF/DH/1B: $27.5MM player option with a $2.5MM buyout.  Also has a $25MM player option for '26 with a $5MM buyout
  • Drew Smyly, RP: $10MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

  • Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM
  • Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5MM
  • Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9MM
  • Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3MM
  • Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9MM
  • Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3MM
  • Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3MM
  • Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM
  • Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM
  • Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9MM
  • Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4MM
  • Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K
  • Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K
  • Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Almonte, Bethancourt, Merryweather, Madrigal, Wisdom, Alzolay, Wingenter, Herget, Brewer

Free Agents

  • Kyle Hendricks, Jorge Lopez

The Cubs' splashy hiring of Craig Counsell last November had minimal impact this year, as the club posted the same 83-79 record it had under David Ross in 2023.  A 17-10 April record created some optimism, but the Cubs went 65-67 thereafter and were mostly out of the playoff race by July.  Let's take a look around the Cubs' roster and figure out how president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might go about creating a 90-win team for 2025, a particularly ripe opportunity with the Cardinals taking a rare step back.

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Player’s Closet Project: A New Era Of Authentic Athlete Memorabilia For Fans (Sponsored)

By Tim Dierkes | October 7, 2024 at 8:53am CDT

This is a sponsored post from Legends Memorabilia.

In a groundbreaking new initiative aimed at connecting fans directly with their favorite athletes, Legends Memorabilia Collection has launched the Player’s Closet Project. This innovative project brings fans exclusive, personally owned and autographed items from the personal collections of some of the biggest stars in sports. Legends Memorabilia Collection (LMC) is a wholly owned for-profit subsidiary of the Major League Baseball Players Alumni Association (MLBPAA). With access to thousands of former big- league players, LMC offers an unparalleled experience in Major League Baseball memorabilia.

The Player’s Closet Project stands out from traditional memorabilia offerings by delivering items that have been a part of an athlete’s personal journey. They are tied to meaningful moments in an athlete’s career—whether it’s a pair of sneakers worn during a training session, an autographed locker room sign, a jacket worn during the season, or an autograph exchanged with a fellow player after the game. Each item comes with a certificate of authenticity, ensuring the piece’s source and its significance to the athlete’s personal history.

The Player’s Closet Project already has a growing roster of athletes across different eras of baseball who are participating in the initiative. Each athlete has carefully selected items from their personal closets and will make them available in limited quantities.

Some of the high-profile names involved in the project include exclusive Legends Memorabilia Collection athlete and baseball superstar Mike Trout, 2006 MVP Ryan Howard and two-time World Series champion Johnny Damon. From Trout’s batting gloves to Howard’s game-day cleats, fans can expect unique, one-of-a-kind items to hit the site regularly. Damon has even contributed a pair of autographed seats from Old Yankee Stadium! With more athletes being announced routinely, fans can look forward to a constantly evolving collection of unique items.

Whether you’re a seasoned memorabilia collector or a lifelong sports fan looking for that perfect piece, the Player’s Closet Project offers something for everyone. With exclusive, personally owned items coming directly from the athletes themselves, this project is set to redefine how fans engage with the memorabilia market.

From iconic game-day gear to behind-the-scenes keepsakes, the Player’s Closet Project is a fan’s dream come true—bringing the game, and the players, closer than ever before.

For more information on the Player’s Closet Project and to see the latest drops, visit https://shoplegends.com/pages/players-closet-project.

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Offseason Outlook Articles Now Part Of Trade Rumors Front Office

By Tim Dierkes | October 4, 2024 at 7:50am CDT

Many of you have noticed that our long-running Offseason Outlook series is now a part of our paid Trade Rumors Front Office service.

I understand this change has been jarring for some, and I apologize for not providing a heads up.  It is a permanent change, and next spring’s Offseason in Review series will be exclusive to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers as well.

Our traffic declined in 2023 for the first time in MLBTR’s history, and ad rates have been falling for roughly seven years.  I decided to create Trade Rumors Front Office in 2020 to close the gap on ad revenue that is no longer there.

Requiring a subscription to read the Offseason Outlook series was not a decision I made lightly.  These posts take roughly three hours each to write, and the majority of them receive modest traffic.  The ad revenue on the series was not close to covering the time required to produce it.  I take great pride in our work on the Offseason Outlook series, and I think it’s worth paying for.

We have a couple of other time-consuming major original offseason features  that also don’t pay for themselves, in our arbitration projections and our Top 50 Free Agents list.  I have no current plans to put those behind the paywall.

I think we add a lot of value to news posts as well, particularly on write-ups of major signings and trades.  News posts, which make up the vast majority of MLBTR, remain free.  A portion of our more time-consuming opinion-based analysis has been exclusive to subscribers for over four years now.  Other original work, such as our recent free agent preview by position, remains free to all.

It can be difficult to find a balance and make the math work.  If you’re here strictly for the news, that’s still free.  If you find value in our analysis and tools and have the means, then I hope you’ll consider a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription.

I have not raised the price on Trade Rumors Front Office in four-plus years, even as we’ve continually added benefits.  It remains $29.89 per year.  Benefits include:

  • Ad-free browsing experience
  • Exclusive weekly articles from Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco
  • Offseason Outlook and Offseason in Review series covering all 30 teams
  • Exclusive weekly live chat with Anthony
  • GM-caliber tools such as our MLB Contract Tracker and Agency Database
  • 100% money-back guarantee

MLBTR is approaching its 19th anniversary in November.  It’s a privilege to do this for a living, and we value everyone who chooses to visit the site.  I intend to continue running MLBTR as an independent small business for as long as possible.  Enjoy the playoffs; we’re hard at work preparing for another exciting offseason!

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MLB Mailbag: Dodgers, Cardinals, Yankees

By Tim Dierkes | October 2, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag delves into the Dodgers' rotation for 2025, the likelihood of Cody Bellinger opting out, the Cardinals' reset, the Yankees' infield, and much more.

Ben asks:

I'm curious as to how you expect the Dodgers to address their rotation this offseason. The team is laden with talented starters, yet the number of injuries is astounding. Do you expect the team to continue adopting a high-risk, high-reward approach? Will we see them sign a low upside inning-eater or two as insurance? How likely is a reunion with Buehler, and what might the season-opening rotation look like?

When I consider  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, I wouldn't say he had a higher injury risk than any other top starter the Dodgers could've gotten.  Nor was Trevor Bauer high-risk, healthwise.  Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Rich Hill were high injury risk three or four-year deals, but those were eight to ten years ago.

Otherwise, Andrew Friedman has generally gone for one-year starting pitcher deals in free agency: James Paxton, Noah Syndergaard, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney in recent years.  Trade pickups have included Alex Wood, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Glasnow.

I don't know that I see a pattern there, other than eschewing long-term free agent deals for less youthful pitchers.  For example, if Max Fried is going to sign for five or six years, I don't expect the Dodgers to do that.  Innings eaters have not really been Friedman's thing, with the possible exception of Tyler Anderson coming off a 167-inning campaign.

You could argue that Buehler would be Friedman's type if he was coming from another team.  But the Dodgers had all year to try to get him on track this year and failed to do so, so my guess is that they will not re-sign him.

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MLB Mailbag: Red Sox, Cubs, Adames, Adell

By Tim Dierkes | September 25, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

Today's mailbag gets into offseason needs for the Red Sox, how the Cubs might fit Matt Shaw in, possible suitors for Willy Adames, whether Jo Adell has turned a corner, and much more.

Dave asks:

As a disgruntled Red Sox fan (mostly due to John Henry pulling in the purse strings), what are the Red Sox's biggest needs going into next season? I think as always the need for another innings eater in the rotation. Also curious as to if Duran was offered as trade, what type of starting pitching would he command? As for free agents - I don't think the Sox will bring back any of them. Although for the right price maybe Pivetta.

Here's how the team sets up right now:

  • C - Connor Wong (R)
  • 1B - Triston Casas (L)
  • 2B -  Vaughn Grissom (R)
  • SS - Trevor Story (R)
  • 3B - Rafael Devers (L)
  • LF - Jarren Duran (L)
  • CF - Ceddanne Rafaela (R)
  • RF - Wilyer Abreu (L)
  • DH - Masataka Yoshida (L)

That doesn't include a quartet of highly-regarded position player prospects: outfielder Roman Anthony, shortstop Marcelo Mayer, infielder/center fielder Kristian Campbell, and catcher Kyle Teel.   And of course, Rafaela can play center as well as the middle infield.

The Red Sox will need someone to split time at catcher with Wong until Teel is ready, whether it's Danny Jansen or another veteran.  Second base has been an issue, with Grissom, Enmanuel Valdez, and David Hamilton getting the bulk of the playing time there.  With Mayer, Campbell, and Rafaela all options there, I don't see much room for a veteran.

The outfield pieces can move around as well.  Wilyer Abreu has had an excellent rookie season, though he has not shown the ability to hit left-handed pitching.  That problem extended even to Devers and Duran this year.  Of the prospects I mentioned, only Campbell bats right-handed.  Baseball America touched on this issue recently.

Devers had a strong year, while Story's contract demands a starting job.  Yoshida, also well-paid, might not have that luxury.  The Red Sox signed Rafaela to a $50MM contract in April, but he really hasn't hit outside of July and is on track for a 1-WAR season.  I'm not sure where he fits.

At 4.71 runs scored per game, this has been a good offense.  That's despite giving regular playing time to Rafaela.  It also includes big contributions from Tyler O'Neill, who seems likely to leave as a free agent, and Rob Refsnyder, who's unlikely to repeat.

Given the versatility and uncertainty around several of these players, there are a lot of ways next year's lineup can shake out.  I've seen the idea of trading Duran mentioned here and there.  Duran, 28, will be arbitration eligible for the first of four times in 2025 and is under control through 2028.  He's split his time between center and left field in his breakout season, and played both positions capably.  He's one of baseball's fastest players, his arm is strong, and his Statcast hitting metrics are solidly red.

Duran is on track for a 7-WAR season that in many years would make him an MVP frontrunner.  He provided the bulk of his offensive value from June through August, during which he had a 168 wRC+.  Duran has an 87 wRC+ against lefties this year, though he did hit southpaws well in June and July.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

By Tim Dierkes | September 23, 2024 at 10:46am CDT

Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.  This will be Nicklaus' last chat of the year!  Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Yankees, Mariners, Dodgers

By Tim Dierkes | September 19, 2024 at 11:29am CDT

In today's mailbag, we get into a potential offseason plan for the Cardinals, the impact of managers, third base in Seattle, whether the Yankees should sign Juan Soto, NL playoff rotations, and much more.

Sam asks:

Hi Tim, imagine your phone rings and it's Bill DeWitt Jr. he says, "Tim, I've always liked your work at MLBTR and I've decided that I want to focus all my attention on acquiring as many Arby's as possible. 63 just isn't enough. So I've decided to gift you the St. Louis Cardinals and enough money to maintain the team's current ranking in payroll among the other 29 teams for the next 3 years, effective immediately." How do *you* Tim Dierkes go about fixing the Cardinals?

I generally support efforts to put more Arby's into the world.

The Cardinals' current competitive balance tax payroll is about $216MM, so I'll just stick with that.  That gives me about $92MM to work with.  Key arbitration eligibles include Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Andre Pallante.  I'm pretty sure those guys will cost less than $20MM, so if I tender them contracts I'll have about $75MM with which to work.

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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut

By Tim Dierkes | September 16, 2024 at 8:36am CDT

Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

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