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MLB Mailbag: Kwan, Bieber, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, Phillies, Braves

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Our final subscriber mailbag before the trade deadline gets into the Guardians trading Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber, what's next for the Yankees, Giants, and Cubs, Dave Dombrowski's approach toward trading top Phillies prospects, and positives for the Braves.

John asks:

Where does Cleveland go from here? Kwan isn't signing long term. Clase may be lost. Will Santana be dfa for Kayfus?

Robb asks:

Would the Guardians be more receptive to dealing Steven Kwan if the Dodgers take Shane Bieber off their hands? Even so, I doubt anything less than Dalton Rushing would interest the Guardians as a starting point.

In a recent report, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said Kwan is drawing a ton of interest, and Emmanuel Clase's non-disciplinary leave might increase the chances of a trade.

Kwan, 28 in September, is earning $4.175MM this year and is under team control through 2027.  Though he's not a flashy player, Kwan has been worth about 4 WAR per 650 plate appearances in his career and this season is no different.

Trading Kwan would be risky for the Guardians, as the franchise has failed to find or produce an outfielder of this caliber since perhaps Michael Brantley.  Nor will Kwan's arbitration salaries be prohibitive, even for the Guardians.  The next big hopes are Chase DeLauter, who may be out for the season due to a hamate fracture, and Jaison Chourio, who has yet to succeed at High-A.

Still, trading players with Kwan's service time is the circle of life for the Guardians, so I imagine if someone offers multiple cornerstone top-100 prospect type players (especially position players), they'll take a hard look at it.

Carlos Santana is 39 and he's been terrible since June, so I could see a DFA in the offing.  The Guardians may first attempt some of the $4MM he's still owed this year.  C.J. Kayfus, 23, has done nothing but rake in the minors, though his Triple-A strikeout rate is high at 28%.  It'd make sense to give Kayfus a look this year, unless the team is trying not to start his service time clock.

What will happen with Bieber, one of the more intriguing trade targets of the 2025 deadline?

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Rawlings Baseball Gloves: The GOLD Standard of MLB (Sponsored)

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When the brightest stars in the sport consistently choose one brand, it speaks volumes. In the 2025 MLB All-Star Game, Rawlings once again proved why it remains the undisputed leader in glove craftsmanship. An impressive 57% of all All-Star players donned Rawlings gloves on the field, with even higher numbers among AL starters—89% of American League starters and 56% of National League starters.

This dominance isn’t just a matter of branding or tradition. It’s a testament to Rawlings’ commitment to innovation, quality, and a deep understanding of the athlete’s needs.

A History of Excellence

Founded in 1887, Rawlings has been synonymous with baseball for over a century. From its early days in St. Louis to its current place as the glove of choice for professionals and amateurs alike, the company has always prioritized craftsmanship. It introduced groundbreaking technologies like the Trapeze web and the Heart of the Hide leather—materials and designs that transformed how gloves are made and used.

Rawlings has also been the official glove of Major League Baseball for decades. This isn’t just a ceremonial title; it reflects the widespread trust and preference of players across the league. That preference was on full display in Atlanta during the 2025 All-Star Game.

All-Stars Choose Rawlings

To appreciate the magnitude of Rawlings’ presence at this year’s Midsummer Classic, consider the numbers: 57% of all All-Star players—more than half—wore Rawlings gloves. This includes players like Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso, and Vlad Guerrero Jr.

See full list of Rawlings athletes here.

 

 

More striking is the near-complete endorsement from the American League’s elite. 89% of the AL starters were outfitted with Rawlings gloves, underscoring the brand’s dominance among the league’s top-tier defenders. Whether it’s the slick double-play combo up the middle or a diving outfielder making a highlight-reel grab, chances are they’re wearing Rawlings.

On the National League side, 56% of starters also chose Rawlings, further solidifying the company’s cross-league reputation. Even in an age where athletes have more gear choices than ever, Rawlings has held its ground by simply being better—better leather, better design, better performance.

 

 

The Gold Glove Connection

It’s also worth noting that Rawlings sponsors the Rawlings Gold Glove Award, the most prestigious defensive honor in baseball. While the company doesn’t pick the winners, it has become a symbol of defensive excellence. This connection further reinforces Rawlings’ place in the baseball elite—after all, many Gold Glove winners also wear Rawlings gloves.

The Gold Glove reputation is built on players like Nolan Arenado and Francisco Lindor—elite defenders who are known for turning impossible plays into routine outs, all with Rawlings on their hands.

Check out more info on Rawlings and their products HERE!

This is a sponsored post from Rawlings.

MLB Mailbag: Spencer Jones, Mason Miller, Angels, Cubs, Blue Jays, Dodgers

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This week's mailbag covers Yankees prospect Spencer Jones, comps for a Mason Miller trade, and trade deadline situations involving the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Dodgers.

Angel asks:

Do you believe the Yankees now view Spencer Jones as untouchable? His trajectory is so similar to Judge's, but I'd sign right now for 75% of Judge.

Jack asks:

Why does it feel like lots of the Yankees prospects don’t pan out in the MLB? Do you believe it’s because they’re overhyped, poor player development, a mix of both, or something completely else?

Sandy asks:

Volpe made another critical error last night. He seems to wilt under pressure in clutch defensive situations even if his dWar is positive at 0.8. Are the Yankees having second thoughts about their long-term shortstop? Should they? His bat has never been up to league average. Thanks!

Charles asks:

What would it take for the Yanks to get Bednar, Keller, and IKF in a package from the Pirates? It seems that if they are going to be contenders they need something like that.

Jones  is an interesting and polarizing prospect.  His stock seemed to drop in 2024, as he spent the season at Double-A and posted a 127 wRC+ with a whopping 36.8% strikeout rate.

In another 208 PA at the level this year, Jones still struck out 33.7% of the time, but posted a massive 186 wRC+ to earn a Triple-A promotion.  That came on June 27th.  He has since annihilated Triple-A pitching with a 205 wRC+, which includes 10 home runs in 79 PA.  His strikeout rate for the RailRiders is down to 26.6%.

The sample size makes this tricky.  Jones tinkers with his swing a lot, but 79 PA isn't enough to say that he's truly cut the strikeouts.  If he'd struck out five additional times in Triple-A - one additional time every three games -  his K% would be 32.9.

The error bars on Jones are wide, but the odds are currently stacked against him becoming a star.  Jones' Double-A sample is still bigger than his Triple-A one.  Let's see if we can find some comps who struck out at least 30% of the time at Double-A at age 24 or younger while posting a 130 wRC+ or better.

Gallo and Moncada at least had a few star-caliber seasons in the Majors between them.  Otherwise, these guys did not become stars or even MLB regulars.  They also did not cut their strikeout rates and dominate Triple-A pitching, so if Jones keeps that up he'll be charting a new trajectory.

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Lock In A Lower Price On Trade Rumors Front Office Now!

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In recent weeks, Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers have enjoyed team-by-team deep dives in our new Trade Deadline Outlook series.  We’re happy to be able to provide that type of longer-form original content.  It’s your support that makes it happen.  If you’re on the fence about a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription, consider that we offer a 100% money-back guarantee.  You have nothing to lose, yet requests for refunds have been rare because we’re providing great value for your $29.89 per year or $2.99 per month.  You can view all the benefits as well as subscriber testimonials here.

As I mentioned in June, those prices have been in place for five years now.  Due to unfavorable trends regarding ad rates and traffic, in August we are enacting our first-ever price increase to $34.99 per year or $3.99 per month.  That’s still a great deal!

However!!!  You can still lock in the old price of just $29.89 per year, for a full three years! That’s over $15 in savings! Anyone who signs up for Trade Rumors Front Office prior to 8-1-25 and keeps auto-renewal on will enjoy the grandfathered $29.89 annual price until 8-1-28!  You’ve got only ten days left to do this.

Sign up right now so you can enjoy the site without ads, indulge in exclusive articles and chats every week, and use cool tools like our MLB Contract Tracker.  We don’t do sales, but grandfathering in for three years at the old price is about as close as it’s going to get.

Steve Adams, Anthony Franco, Darragh McDonald, Mark Polishuk, Nick Deeds, and Leo Morgenstern are gearing up for another exciting MLB trade deadline on July 31st, and I’ll be helping out as well.  It’s all hands on deck here as MLBTR prepares for its 20th trade deadline.  We’ve come a long way since I was flying solo on MLBTR’s trade deadline coverage 20 years ago and the Dodgers were adding guys like Julio Lugo and Greg Maddux.  MLBTR is now better than ever, and I appreciate everyone who is still along for the ride (whether paid or ad-supported).

MLB Mailbag: Tigers, Gore, Athletics, Astros

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This week's mailbag gets into relief options for the Tigers, whether the Nationals should trade MacKenzie Gore, and the trade value of Athletics JJ Bleday and Luis Severino, as well as questions involving the Astros, Reds, Rangers, Cubs, and Red Sox.

Colin asks:

A few days ago, the Dodgers traded Noah Davis to the Twins for cash.  Davis was not at all successful with the Dodgers.  Can you tell me how much cash a team typically gets in a situation like that?

I ran this question by a front office friend.  He replied, "The dollar amount received by clubs trading away a DFA’d player for cash considerations almost always falls between $55,000 and $100,000.  There’s little incentive for clubs to trade the player for anything less than $50,000 because the club will receive that amount if the player is claimed off waivers. MLB caps cash transactions in this situation to a maximum of $100,000. Thus, most cash transactions of this nature end up in the $55,000 to $100,000 range."

Barry asks:

I really feel that Detroit needs two bullpen arms, one of which could close out games or be in the closing mix and match what AJ does. Any insight as to who the Tigers are looking at? I am thinking that David Bednar is the type of pitcher Detroit likes, controlling the strike zone, low walks.

Michael asks:

Coming out of the break, the Tigers have the best record in baseball and the biggest division lead. Nobody had that on their bingo card. In light of that, what should be Detroit's plan for the next two weeks? Should they swing for the fences and if so, how? Or look to add a piece here and there but not mortgage the future (or empty the farm) in favor of adding big names now?

The Tigers definitely need to add late inning relievers who can miss bats.  There's a good case to be made for signing David Robertson, who is reportedly throwing for interested teams.

The average MLB reliever punches out 22.4% of batters faced and has an 11.3% swinging strike rate.  We saw trade rumors on Mason Miller of the Athletics last summer; his K% is over 40%.  He's under team control through 2029, though, so the A's have no reason to trade him now unless they feel they're selling high or received an offer they can't refuse.

The Orioles' Felix Bautista is under team control through 2027.  He has a huge strikeout rate as well, but walks even more batters than Miller.  Bautista's teammate Seranthony Dominguez is in that same class.  A free agent after the season, Dominguez seems a lock to be dealt.  Same goes for Gregory Soto, so it makes sense for Scott Harris to be blowing up Mike Elias' phone.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals reached the All-Star break in a tricky position.  With about 40% of their season remaining, they're only 1.5 games back in the Wild Card and have a real shot at the playoffs.  That's the case despite an offseason in which they did not attempt to improve the club, in what longtime president of baseball operations John Mozeliak termed a "reset."  And Mozeliak will be navigating the July 31st deadline as a lame duck, given the club's stated plan to give his job to Chaim Bloom for the 2026 season.

Mozeliak put it this way nine days ago (Katie Woo of The Athletic reporting): "I do feel like where we are in the week leading up, or the 72 hours leading up to the trading deadline, may affect how we make our decisions."  He further explained, "When we talk about all-in, I do think based on where the franchise is, based on payroll down and thinking more of the long view, we’re still trying to balance today’s success with ultimately having long-term success."

Record: 51-46 (28.5% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Right-handed bat, pitching depth

Regarding the transition to Bloom, Mozeliak said, "When we get closer to the deadline, if there’s something that could impact how the future looks, clearly we’ll take a look at in a more collaborative sense."

With relative stability on the pitching staff, Mozeliak's deadline focus on the buy side may be on an offense that ranks fifth in the National League with 4.58 runs scored per game.  Within that respectable showing, however, is a team that ranks 10th in the NL with an 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

Mozeliak acknowledged the deficiency but also said, "I do feel like where they’re going to be in a week or two is not a glaring hole in terms of trading deadline thoughts," given Ivan Herrera's July 13th activation and minor injuries affecting other righty bats like Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras.

Brendan Donovan has been an everyday player, generally at second base, despite consistent struggles against southpaws over the last three seasons.  Alec Burleson, currently deployed in the corner outfield, has been similar.  Center fielder Victor Scott II has sat against some lefties in the last month in favor of Garrett Hampson.  Lars Nootbaar, on the IL for a left costochondral sprain, had been sitting here or there against lefties but often with Donovan or Burleson in his spot and Thomas Saggese getting the start at second base.

Given that Mozeliak said "I don’t think we’re ever going to take away from the guys we’re trying to see play," it may be difficult to find the ideal addition.  An improvement over Hampson as Scott's platoon partner could be one answer.  Perhaps a call to the White Sox regarding Austin Slater or Michael A. Taylor of the White Sox would make sense.  A homecoming for Randal Grichuk could work, though he hasn't played much center in recent years.  Maybe the Astros will find Chas McCormick expendable once he completes his rehab assignment for an oblique strain.

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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Rangers, J-Rod, Yankees, Bichette

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This week's mailbag gets into the Cardinals' deadline approach, the lefty relief market, offseason ideas for the Rangers, the Mariners trading Julio Rodriguez, who the Yankees could give up in trades, Bo Bichette's future, and much more.

Rich asks:

With two bad performances by starting pitchers, Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde, will the Cardinals seek a trade for at least one veteran starting pitcher?

Sam asks:

Bernie Miklasz who seems pretty well sourced was talking about the Cardinals potentially trading Nootbaar. If they do that, what sort of return would the Cardinals get? His results are not good but his statcast data is great.

At the time of this writing, the Cardinals are 1.5 games out in the wild card with a 33.5% chance at the playoffs.

The first question reminds me a bit of the 2021 season, when John Mozeliak's Cardinals reached deadline day as a .500 club with just a 2-3% chance at the playoffs.  The club picked up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ at the deadline, with Mozeliak saying, "We wanted to try to do it in a way that we wouldn't be giving up a lot of future talent; that was something that was sort of critical in our decision-making. Needless to say, today we felt like we took a couple steps forward without having to sacrifice our future."

The 2021 team went 39-21 from July 30th onward before losing the (lone) NL Wild Card game against the Dodgers.  Lester and Happ gave the Cardinals exactly what they wanted: innings.  Innings are generally what Mikolas and Fedde provide, having combined for 349 of them last year.  Sonny Gray has been excellent, while Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante have been solid.

Mikolas and Fedde do deserve ERAs around 5.00, and there's logic to seeking an upgrade - either one controllable beyond this year, or one in the Lester/Happ mold who doesn't cost much.  In my recent Cubs Trade Deadline Outlook, I named just about every potentially available starting pitcher I could think of, though Steve Adams suggested I add Drew Rasmussen.  The Cardinals have a very real shot at reaching the playoffs this year - perhaps more than they expected coming into the season - and I do think they should add a starter.

In an article Monday, Katie Woo of The Athletic noted that Fedde may not take his next turn in the rotation, and Mikolas shouldn't feel comfortable either.  Michael McGreevy is the next man up.  The 25-year-old has excelled in Triple-A and can probably do better than Fedde.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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Led by All-Star starters Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Cubs are in a great position to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.  Their position player mix could use some tweaks, but the team's priority will be its battered rotation.

Jed Hoyer has had the top chair in the Cubs' baseball operations department since Theo Epstein stepped down in November 2020.  Hoyer was the number two man in Epstein's front office before that, after he'd led the Padres' front office for two years.  He's played a large part for "buy mode" contenders across many trade deadlines and has been unafraid to move prospects and good young players.  Hoyer sent a strong "all-in" message in December by trading last year's first rounder Cam Smith along with three years of Isaac Paredes and five of Hayden Wesneski for one year of Kyle Tucker.

Hoyer is in the last year of a five-year contract with the Cubs, so it's a bit odd to have him making long-term decisions for the franchise with his own future in doubt.  Back when Epstein stepped down, he said, "The organization faces many decisions this winter that carry long-term consequences; those types of decisions are best made by someone who will be here for a long period rather than for just one more year."  Perhaps an extension for Hoyer is forthcoming.  For now, I'm sure, his focus is on shoring up the first-place Cubs for a deep playoff run.

Record: 54-36 (94.6% playoff probability)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Two starting pitchers, starting third baseman, lefty-mashing first baseman, general relief help

With Jameson Taillon on the IL into August due to a calf strain, the Cubs' rotation is down to two reliable established Major Leaguers: Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd.  Expected ace Justin Steele is out for the season due to Tommy John surgery.

Taillon still figures to be part of the playoff picture for the Cubs.  Colin Rea and Cade Horton are in the rotation at present, and Ben Brown made 14 starts before being optioned in late June.  Veteran Chris Flexen made 30 starts last year.  Jordan Wicks got the call four days ago but may be used in a long relief role.  Javier Assad, who started 29 games last year, has been dealing with an oblique injury all season.  It's not clear what the Cubs will get from him in 2025.

There are enough rotation options on hand to get through the regular season, but the goal is to win the World Series.  Boyd, the Cubs' All-Star lefty, is 34 years old and hasn't shouldered a full workload since 2019.  This team needs to add two starting pitchers, including at least one who can start a playoff game.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox are next up in MLBTR's new Trade Deadline Outlook series.  After losing a modern-day record 121 games last year, the Sox are on pace to lose "only" 108 this year.  The Pale Hose remain firmly in the "clear seller" group as one of six teams with less than a 1% shot at reaching the playoffs.

White Sox executive vice president/general manager Chris Getz took over after the 2023 trade deadline, so this is only his second time being in the top chair for the event.  Last summer, Getz packaged several of his top assets together in Erick Fedde, Michael Kopech, and Tommy Pham, netting Miguel Vargas as the headliner.  That trade looked rough out of the gate, as Vargas was one of the game's worst players after joining the White Sox.  The 25-year-old somewhat redeemed himself with a hot May this year.

Getz held out until the offseason to move lefty Garrett Crochet, drawing better reviews for that deal.  While the four-player return on that trade looks promising, it may still be painful to see Crochet locked up through 2031 and vying for the AL Cy Young award.  That deal will take years to truly evaluate, but as we look ahead to July, the question for the White Sox is whether they have anything valuable left to trade.

Record: 28-56 (0.0% playoff probability)

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Aaron Civale, Martin Perez, Adrian Houser, Tyler Alexander, Michael A. Taylor, Austin Slater

Civale was picked up from the Brewers in a one-for-one swap on June 13th for Andrew Vaughn.  Perhaps it was a bit of a monkey's paw situation for the 30-year-old Civale, who requested a trade from the contending Brewers upon being moved to the bullpen, only to land in the rotation of the rebuilding White Sox.

Civale was hoping to maintain his earning power as a starting pitcher, though it's unclear he's helped his case in a small three-start sample with Chicago.  On the season, he's got a well-deserved 4.74 ERA in eight starts, having missed over a month with a hamstring strain.  He's been unable to miss bats this year and his homer-prone tendencies have continued.

The White Sox had nothing to lose by acquiring Civale, in that they were highly likely to non-tender Vaughn after the season.  But as an $8MM back of the rotation guy, Civale won't be making playoff starts in October and won't bring more than a low-level prospect.  Potential suitors may want some help with his salary.

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MLB Mailbag: Devers, Red Sox, Braves, Alonso, Helsley

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This week's mailbag gets into many aspects of the Rafael Devers trade, remaining questions to answer in Boston, no-trade clauses, shortstop options for the Braves, Pete Alonso's next contract, Ryan Helsley's struggles, and much more.

Kevin asks:

What's your personal take on the Giants trade? I think Boston got the better deal.

John asks:

Seen a lot of talk from fans and the media that Devers contract will age badly but I did a little digging into the Contract Tracker. Between 2015 and 2020 there were 12 contracts with an AAV at 30 mil. and over. This year alone there were 5, including one for 50. So am I wrong to think that given the way salaries have escalated by the end of the contract 30 mil. likely won't be that big a deal?

Denny asks:

Will Devers HR stats suffer playing home games at whatever the current name is of the ballpark in SF?

My initial reaction was to favor the Giants' side of the deal.  They added a 28-year-old top 10 hitter in baseball who should be worth 3-4 WAR per year for the foreseeable future.  The Giants also ditched Jordan Hicks' contract in the process.

The Giants could feel pain from moving Kyle Harrison and James Tibbs III, but probably not in the short-term.  The balance of this deal hinges heavily on Harrison, who is just 23 and retains number two starter upside.  The Red Sox can control Harrison through 2030 if they keep him in the minors for a few weeks, which I'm guessing is the plan.  Harrison has at least held his own through the equivalent of one Major League season.

Tibbs is considered a 50-grade prospect; he'll have to hit a lot to profile as a corner outfield regular.  Jose Bello is the wild card prospect, and those get moved regularly.

I have seen multiple anonymous executives suggest Devers' contract is underwater, meaning he's worth less than he's owed.  You could look at that in a strict dollars per WAR/aging curve sense, plugging in Devers as a 4-ish WAR player for 2025 who will begin his decline in 2026 or '27 and will be paid through 2033 (age 36).  WAR doesn't like a player like this, especially if he's a DH, and I could see valuing him below $250MM with this approach.

Say Devers was owed $253MM at the time of the trade, plus a $2MM assignment bonus paid by the Giants.  Let's also say that Hicks should be valued around $8MM per year.  Given that his contract pays $12MM a year through 2027, the Giants save approximately $10MM by unloading Hicks' contract.  Factor in Devers' deferrals and we'll say it's like the Giants are paying Devers around $225MM for the next 8.5 years.

Had Devers been declared a free agent on June 15, would he have topped $225MM?

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