What Do Our Subscribers Actually Get?
One thing I learned from our survey a few weeks ago is that some MLBTR readers are not clear on what is actually being offered in our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription service.
Aside from the eradication of ads from the website and the app, a paid subscription includes exclusive articles delivered to your inbox every week from Steve Adams and Anthony Franco. Maybe you’re just here for the headlines or the comment section, in which case this subscription service isn’t for you. But if you’re into high quality analysis of MLB trades and free agency, no one on the planet does it better than Steve and Anthony. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg, because the subscription service also offers top-notch fantasy baseball advice from Brad Johnson, my MLB mailbag, and a weekly live chat with Anthony.
Here’s a taste of some of the content we sent to subscribers’ inboxes in April. If you feel that this sort of analysis might be worthwhile, please consider trying out Trade Rumors Front Office for a month for $2.99.
Recently from Steve Adams
The Strangest Thing About the Athletics
Excerpt:
Why on Earth have the Athletics completely eschewed long-term extensions for any of their young players?
The pressing issue is one of why the A’s aren’t regularly making efforts to sign players with less than a year of service, or one to two years of service, to long-term contracts that buy out their arbitration seasons and a free-agent year or two at an affordable rate. Contracts of that nature have been a hallmark of the Indians/Guardians franchise since the 1990s and have been the primary reason Cleveland has maintained a competitive presence in the American League Central despite routinely running payrolls south of $100MM. It’s the reason the Pirates were able to hang onto Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and now, Hayes, as long as they were. The Rays, another small-market, low-payroll club are also perennially active in this regard. Ditto the Marlins, who, even setting aside the Giancarlo Stanton mega-deal, have been active in this market.
Recently from Anthony Franco
It’s Time For The Royals To Bring Up Two More Top Prospects (from April 13)
Excerpt:
A lot has to go right for K.C. to contend in 2022, as mentioned. Much of that involves young players stepping up and playing towards the higher end of their possible outcomes. There’s more variance with prospects, but with the odds against them anyhow, the Royals should be willing to gamble on upside. In addition to perhaps making them better in 2022, getting an extended look at Pratto and Melendez now gives the front office a stronger indication of whether they can be relied upon as important pieces in 2023 — a year when the Royals will absolutely expect to contend.
At some point, Pratto and Melendez are sure to make their major league debuts. It’s not as if the Royals have tanked their chances by playing Santana and Dozier for a week. Calling them up and bumping the veterans to the bench (and O’Hearn off the roster, in all likelihood) just feels like a move that’s overdue.
Recently from Brad Johnson
Fantasy Baseball: 10 Widely Available Hot Performers
Excerpt:
Miles Mikolas, SP, STL (44% owned in fantasy leagues)
The five pitchers I’ve identified share several characteristics. Mikolas was a reliable core performer during his 2018-19 peak. Injuries cancelled his 2020 campaign and interrupted his 2021 season. The right-hander has produced strong results in three starts despite a couple red flags. In particular, he has a career-worst swinging strike rate, and he isn’t inducing enough ground balls. On the plus side, he remains one of the best pitchers in the league at generating called strikes. Among qualified pitchers, he ranks ninth in the league in called strike rate – and this is typical of him. If you see analysts predicting a complete collapse, this is the point of data they’re probably missing. That said, we should definitely expect closer to a 3.50-4.00 ERA going forward. He benefits from soft competition in the NL Central.
Recently from Tim Dierkes
MLB Mailbag: deGrom, Yankees, Jays Catching, Dalbec, Mets
Excerpt:
Scott asks:
What’s the chance the Mets don’t re-sign DeGrom after he opts out? Assuming they do sign him, what does that contract look like?
At this moment, I assume that deGrom expects to return in late May or early June and still plans to opt out. He signed his contract three years ago, and so much has changed since then: the Mets’ ownership, the new CBA, other pitchers’ contracts, his abilities, and his injury record.
The Mets’ CBT payroll goes down to $202MM for 2023 and about $128MM for ‘24, though that doesn’t include arbitration eligible players like Pete Alonso. I think Steve Cohen will make a serious effort to sign deGrom and has the inside track, but I also think there are scenarios where he decides to spend that money differently.
It’s difficult to compare Max Scherzer and deGrom, because Scherzer did not sign with deGrom’s health question marks. And even if deGrom returns in late May and doesn’t miss a start after that, it’d be a stretch to say that all concern about his future ability to stay healthy is gone. On the other hand, Scherzer signed for his age 37-39 seasons, which is inherently a health risk of its own.
If deGrom returns around June and stays healthy for the rest of the season, as his agent I’m setting out looking for a new AAV record and as many years as possible. Best pitcher in baseball, five months of good health, that’s the expectation. So we’re talking an AAV north of $43.3MM.
The new contract would start with deGrom’s age-35 season. We haven’t really seen a comparable contract start at that age. Even Hyun Jin Ryu starting at 33 was an outlier; it’s often 30-31. Then we have kind of the “old ace” contracts, like Scherzer’s deal or Justin Verlander getting a deal for age 37-38 and another one at age 39 (and 40 under certain conditions). DeGrom isn’t old like them, either.
Bottom line: something like $180MM over four years makes sense to me, if deGrom returns within six weeks or so and stays healthy and dominant. If his return from injury does not go perfectly, then the details and timing will determine the contract.
I’ll leave you with a real quote from a subscriber named Jason (you can read more here):
“The subscription service is well worth the price. The content and depth of analysis the writers provide on a plethora of issues is fascinating and eye opening. Adding the fantasy component too is a godsend for us fantasy junkies. It’s also wonderful to get to participate in the private chats and more often than not get my questions answered with responses that demonstrate great attention to detail and insight. I highly recommend the subscription. If you like baseball, you’ll love this service!”
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Brewers Designate Jose Ureña For Assignment
The Brewers designated righty José Ureña for assignment, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic. Additionally, Luis Urías has returned from his IL stint and figures to reassume his role as the team’s primary third baseman.
Ureña signed a minor league deal with Milwaukee in Spring Training but was selected onto the big league roster the following day. Ticketed for relief work thanks to the Brew Crew’s loaded rotation, Ureña wound up making just four appearances. He tallied 7 2/3 innings of five-run ball, walking five batters while striking out only three. He generated swinging strikes on a below-average 9.1% of his offerings.
While Ureña has never had especially strong control or swing-and-miss numbers, he has typically managed high-end ground-ball rates throughout his career. Early on in his Milwaukee tenure, though, his grounder rate sat at a league average 42.9%. Ultimately, the Brewers decided to move forward without the 30-year-old as part of today’s deadline to trim active rosters from 28 to 26 players.
Ureña will now be traded or placed on waivers in the coming days. As a player with more than five big league service years, he has the right to refuse an outright assignment even if he passes through waivers unclaimed. Ureña has averaged north of 96 MPH on his fastball through the season’s first few weeks, so he figures to at least attract interest on a minor league deal if another club isn’t willing to grant him an immediate MLB roster spot.
Urías missed the season’s first month due to a left quad issue. He’s now in line to make his season debut after positing a career-best .249/.345/.445 showing over 570 plate appearances in 2021. His return will be a welcome development for a Brewers team that has gotten a meager .182/.289/.227 line from its replacement third basemen — primarily Jace Peterson and Mike Brosseau — thus far.
Tigers Designate Dustin Garneau For Assignment
The Tigers designated catcher Dustin Garneau for assignment, according to an announcement from the team. Additionally, lefty Tyler Alexander hit the IL for an elbow sprain, bringing the team’s active roster down to 26 players.
The Tigers’ three-catcher plan has come to an end, with Tucker Barnhart and Eric Haase remaining to handle duties behind the plate. Garneau, 34, has led a journeyman MLB career, accumulating 506 big league plate appearances across eight seasons for six different teams. He’s never topped the 126 plate appearances he received in 2017 for the Rockies and A’s. Garneau had joined the Tigers last August as part of a full-circle series of transactions.
Even at age 34, an experienced catcher like Garneau with a “have glove, will travel” mindset is usually able to find a spot in an MLB organization, with the position always in short supply. And there’s always the possibility he clears waivers and remains with the Tigers. Though not known for his defense, the 29-year-old Haase will be Barnhart’s sole backup behind the dish, even though Haase has spent more time at left field than catcher so far this year.
Orioles Designate Kelvin Gutierrez For Assignment
The Orioles designated third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez for assignment, according to an announcement from the team. The move brings the Orioles down to the necessary 26 players, the deadline for which is fast approaching. As Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes, the move also brings the Orioles’ 40-man roster down to 39 players.
Gutierrez, 27, was acquired by the Orioles from the Royals last July for cash considerations after Kansas City had designated him for assignment. He joined the O’s in late August and quickly became the team’s regular third baseman – more of an indictment of Baltimore’s lack of MLB talent at the position than an endorsement of Gutierrez’s abilities. This year, Ramon Urias has been drawing the bulk of the Orioles’ starts at third base.
A 2013 amateur signing by the Nationals out of the Dominican Republic, Gutierrez joined the Royals five years later in a trade involving veteran reliever Kelvin Herrera. He emerged as a 40-grade, big league capable prospect, known mostly for solid third base defense and a strong arm. Never really having shown an above average bat in the high minors, it’s not a big surprise that Gutierrez sports just a 65 wRC+ in 419 big league plate appearances to date. Since Gutierrez is out of minor league options, the Orioles didn’t have the ability to send him to the minors without exposing him to waivers.
Royals Promote MJ Melendez
The Royals recalled catching prospect MJ Melendez, according to a team announcement. The move was prompted by an injury to backup catcher Cam Gallagher, who went on the IL with a hamstring strain.
Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked Melendez as the 42nd best prospect in all of baseball. In a breakout 2021 season, Melendez led all of the minors with 41 home runs. The problem, of course, is that Melendez is blocked by Salvador Perez, the longtime Royals backstop who crushed a career-best 48 Major League home runs in that same season. Perez is signed through 2025, with a club option for 2026.
Melendez was off to a slow start in 2022, with a .160/.284/.280 line in 88 Triple-A plate appearances. He had no such issues at that level last year, hitting .293/.413/.620 in 45 games. Now, Melendez will get a shot to serve as Perez’s apprentice at the game’s highest level, on the merits of that ’21 season. Defensively, Melendez draws praise for his plus-plus arm, while Baseball America suggests he “still has work to do with his receiving and blocking behind the plate.”
Perez, who ranked fourth in MLB last year with 1002 2/3 innings caught at age 31, could cede the occasional start to Melendez while the 23-year-old rookie is around. There’s also the DH spot, which could feature both Melendez and Perez as part of a rotation. To date, Perez has taken 27% of the club’s DH plate appearances, with only Hunter Dozier having received more. This year at Triple-A, Melendez has spent a few games at DH and in right field when he hasn’t been catching. Last year he picked up nine games at third base, and got a look there in spring training this year as well.
Melendez will mark the 13th Baseball America top 100 prospect to make his Major League debut this year, following Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., Spencer Torkelson, C.J. Abrams, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Seiya Suzuki, Matt Brash, Bryson Stott, Jeremy Peña, Heliot Ramos, and MacKenzie Gore.
Trade Rumors Front Office Survey
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Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox filled their right field vacancy by making a long-awaited Craig Kimbrel trade, otherwise focusing on signing Kimbrel’s replacements rather than compensating for the departure of Carlos Rodon.
Major League Signings
- Kendall Graveman, RP: three years, $24MM
- Joe Kelly, RP: two years, $17MM
- Leury Garcia, IF/OF: three years, $16.5MM
- Josh Harrison, 2B/3B: one year, $5.5MM
- Vince Velasquez, SP: one year, $3MM
- Total spend: $66MM
Options Exercised
- Craig Kimbrel, RP: one year, $16MM
Trades and Claims
- Acquired OF Adam Haseley from Phillies for RP McKinley Moore
- Acquired OF AJ Pollock from Dodgers for Craig Kimbrel
- Acquired C Reese McGuire from Blue Jays for C Zack Collins
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Carlos Rodon, Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, Cesar Hernandez, Zack Collins, Brian Goodwin, Billy Hamilton, Evan Marshall, Jimmy Cordero
After a disappointing ALDS loss to the Astros, the White Sox kicked off their offseason by exercising their hefty $16MM option on reliever Craig Kimbrel. The righty had struggled after a crosstown trade in which the Sox paid the high price of Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer. The White Sox seemed intent on trading Kimbrel all along, and at the time their choice on the option seemed related to having given up Madrigal for him. As I wrote in December, “[White Sox GM Rick] Hahn has gambled that whatever he gets back will be better than just paying the $1MM buyout on Kimbrel and spending the money in free agency.”
At the time it needed to be made, the Kimbrel decision involved some financial risk for a club that has never been willing to run a payroll near the first competitive balance tax threshold. Days later, in what seemed a related choice payroll-wise, the White Sox declined to issue a one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to lefty Carlos Rodon.
Especially with the benefit of hindsight that the White Sox would make no major commitments to their rotation, the Rodon decision must be read as the club thinking that the southpaw accepting the qualifying offer would have been a bad thing. It’s hard to say whether Rodon would have accepted. He was one of the game’s best pitchers through mid-July last year, but lost velocity and was handled carefully after that due to shoulder issues. Rodon went on to sign a two-year, $44MM deal after the lockout with the Giants that allows him to opt out after the first year if he reaches 110 innings. Rodon’s market would have been different if he had a qualifying offer attached, due to draft pick forfeiture.
In granting righty Lance Lynn a two-year, $38MM extension last July – similar to the contract Rodon would eventually sign – it might be that the White Sox felt they could choose only one of their 2021 aces. That’s only true in that owner Jerry Reinsdorf decided not to set a payroll that would accommodate both. So, the White Sox received no compensation for Rodon’s departure, while Lynn had knee surgery earlier this month and isn’t expected to make his season debut before his 35th birthday on May 12th. The second half of the season will determine whether the White Sox made the right bet: Lynn will be a big factor in Chicago’s rotation, and we’ll learn whether Rodon holds up all year.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the White Sox showed “strong interest” in Justin Verlander before he reached an agreement to re-sign with the Astros on November 17th. That would’ve been a reasonable way to fill Rodon’s shoes, but competition for Verlander was fierce and the Astros were at the top of his list. Most other top free agent starting pitchers signed prior to the lockout as well, and the White Sox weren’t rumored to be interested in them.
Otherwise, the White Sox made a pair of free agent strikes before the December 2 lockout. They gave out a pair of decent-sized three-year deals, adding setup man Kendall Graveman and retaining super-utility man Leury Garcia. The Graveman signing laid groundwork for the eventual Kimbrel trade, ensuring the team would remain strong in the late innings behind top closer Liam Hendriks. Garcia garnered a larger commitment than expected, but would end up as part of the team’s second base solution.
Rick Hahn’s first post-lockout move was to finish off that second base combo with the signing of Josh Harrison. Through nine games of the season, manager Tony La Russa has split second base time evenly between Garcia and Harrison. Harrison is a righty batter with a modest platoon split, with a 113 wRC+ against southpaws from 2020-21. Garcia, a switch-hitter, is also better against lefties. From 2019-21, Garcia and Harrison sport identical 83 wRC+ marks against right-handed pitching. So for the 70% of the time a righty pitcher is on the hill, the White Sox figure to have a fairly easy out coming from the second base position in the lineup.
On the same day as the Harrison signing, the White Sox somewhat surprisingly moved to further bolster their bullpen with the signing of Joe Kelly. Not only was the team surprising given Chicago’s existing bullpen commitments, but Kelly had exited Game 5 of the NLCS with biceps tightness and still secured a strong commitment. His White Sox debut has been delayed by at least a couple of weeks due to the injury. When Kelly is healthy, he, Graveman, and Aaron Bummer can form a very strong bridge to Hendriks.
After the lockout, the White Sox added only back-end starting pitchers to cover for the loss of Rodon and ineffectiveness of Dallas Keuchel, as Lynn had not yet gotten injured. Vince Velasquez, 29, has longstanding control issues that pitching coach Ethan Katz will attempt to solve. Johnny Cueto, meanwhile, can be a source of veteran innings. The White Sox can still plan a hopeful playoff rotation of Lucas Giolito, Lynn, Dylan Cease, and Michael Kopech. While their depth to cover April injuries to Lynn and Giolito isn’t impressive, if everyone is healthy this will be a fearsome rotation.
The White Sox made efforts to trade for Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas, and Montas remains available. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Sox “nearly acquired” Manaea from the A’s before the Padres closed the deal. Nightengale suggests the A’s have sought Andrew Vaughn from the White Sox for Montas. If nothing else, these rumors suggest the White Sox know they’re a bit short on pitching depth, especially with Keuchel’s struggles last year and Kopech’s likely innings limit.
On April 1st, the White Sox finally found a match for Kimbrel, sending him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock. This was a strong move for the White Sox, vindicating their decision to exercise Kimbrel’s option. In the 34-year-old Pollock, the White Sox effectively fill their right field vacancy with a player who posted a 135 wRC+ over 632 plate appearances from 2020-21. Pollock’s injury history suggests he’s good for about 115 games per year, so the Sox will be covering his absences with Adam Engel and Vaughn. The White Sox can’t exactly time when Pollock will get hurt, but the goal will be to have him active for the playoffs. The Sox also completed a smaller swap with the Collins-McGuire deal, improving their defense at the backup catcher position.
With Yasmani Grandal behind the plate, Jose Abreu at first base, Tim Anderson at shortstop, Yoan Moncada at third, Eloy Jimenez in left, and Luis Robert in center, the White Sox came into the offseason with a strong core of hitters. Pollock only deepens that mix. Vaughn, the third overall draft pick in 2019, should bounce around between the outfield corners, first base, and DH depending on the team’s needs. Anderson is under team control through 2024, Moncada through ’25, Jimenez and Vaughn through ’26, and Robert through ’27.
In the aggregate, the White Sox didn’t necessarily do much to improve upon last year’s 93-win team. When Pollock is healthy, they’ll clearly be better in right field, and the team won’t have to play Vaughn at an outfield corner. Second base is mostly a wash. They covered the losses of Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera with Graveman and Kelly, but also lost Garrett Crochet to Tommy John surgery. The rotation is worse off for the loss of Rodon, but Kopech and/or a future trade might fill much of that void. But maybe this was enough – the White Sox remain the clear favorite in the AL Central, and Tony La Russa’s crew is a credible threat to win the World Series in 2022.
Yankees, Aaron Judge Fail To Reach Contract Extension Prior To Season
TODAY: According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Judge didn’t ask for an extension longer than eight years (or nine years, counting the 2022 season). The Yankees’ offer to Judge also didn’t include any deferred money.
APRIL 8, 3:23pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post hears from multiple sources that Judge had sought an offer of nine to ten years with an average annual value of $36MM. Heyman cautions that a person close to Judge contested those numbers. Max Scherzer ($43.333MM AAV over three years with the Mets) is the only player in history with an AAV north of $36MM, with Mike Trout‘s $36MM annual salary the largest for a position player.
Over a ten-year span, a $36MM AAV would match Trout’s $360MM guarantee. Trout’s deal has the largest present day value in MLB history, although Mookie Betts (who received $365MM in total guarantees but with deferrals that reduced its present value) topped that mark in raw dollars. The Yankees never seemed likely to go to that kind of offer, particularly since a deal buying out nine free agent seasons would take Judge through his age-39 campaign. Heyman adds that the Yankees were willing to include one or more opt-out possibilities for the star outfielder.
10:17am: Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters there will be no extension with Aaron Judge today, hours before the slugger’s self-imposed Opening Day deadline. In a rare disclosure, Cashman detailed that the Yankees offered a seven-year, $213.5MM extension beginning in 2023, representing a $30.5MM average annual value.
That AAV would have ranked 17th in baseball history. Notably, the Yankees were willing to extend Judge through age 37, the same as recent contracts for Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman, Marcus Semien, and Francisco Lindor, despite Judge’s injury history.
Cashman sounds like he’d like to avoid an arbitration hearing for Judge’s 2022 salary, which Lindsey Adler of The Athletic believes would happen in June. Beyond that, the two sides will engage after the season. Of the 24 arbitration eligible players currently headed toward a midseason hearing to determine their 2022 salary, Judge’s $5MM gap with the Yankees ($17MM vs. $22MM) represents the largest.
Cashman’s comments come less than two hours before the Yankees open their season against the Red Sox, Judge’s deadline for a a contract extension as he enters his walk year.
Judge has missed significant portions of three of the last five seasons due to injury. Seager, at least, had a notable injury history of his own, but his deal was struck on the open market in advance of his age-28 season. Judge will play in 2023 at age 31. Offering to sign Judge through age 37 is a significant gesture by the Yankees. The AAV, while perhaps not elite, isn’t unreasonably light and could be considered a tradeoff for the club including a seventh year.
If Judge reaches the open market, he could be joined in a 2022-23 free agent class again strong at the shortstop position. The outfield market doesn’t project to be too impressive beyond Judge, with other names including Joey Gallo, Mitch Haniger, Brandon Nimmo, and Kiké Hernandez.
Judge is set to bat second in the Yankees’ Opening Day lineup in today’s game against Nathan Eovaldi and the Red Sox, which begins at 12:05pm central time.
Latest On Pirates, Bryan Reynolds
Due to the 99-day lockout this winter, a significant number of arbitration cases remain unsettled as the season begins. One of those is Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds. With the player filing at $4.9MM and the team at $4.25MM, a $650K gap exists between the sides. While some teams have made exceptions this year to the game’s otherwise-pervasive file-and-trial policy, it appears the Pirates would like to stay true to that without setting up a midseason fight with their best player. According to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “the team has been pushing to sign Reynolds to at least a two-year deal.”
Reynolds, 27, is entering the arbitration system for the first time. That means his 2022 salary will echo down the road, since he’ll also be arbitration eligible for the 2023, ’24, and ’25 seasons. A two-year deal would at least provide the Pirates with some cost certainty. Plus, Mackey’s sources say owner Bob Nutting does not like the optics of going to an arbitration hearing with Reynolds.
A recent example of what the Pirates appear to be aiming for happened with the Dodgers and Walker Buehler. The club had exchanged figures with Buehler in January ’21 and were facing an $850K gap, but instead hammered out a two-year, $8MM deal to buy out his first two arbitration years without affecting the team’s control over the player, going to a hearing, or violating the file-and-trial policy.
Reynolds generated plenty of interest on the trade market this offseason, with the Padres and Marlins among those recently connected. Pirates GM Ben Cherington recently said to Mackey, “Those calls are incoming calls. They’re not outgoing calls.”
Yesterday, the Pirates announced the largest contract in franchise history, an eight-year, $70MM extension with third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. Reynolds reportedly turned down some extension offers from the Pirates prior to the 2021 season. His price can only have risen since, significantly beyond that of Hayes. Reynolds told Mackey in February of this year that he hadn’t heard anything from the Bucs prior to the lockout.