MLB and the players are kicking around all kinds of ways to play a season in 2020. In today’s video, Jeff Todd explains why it’s too early to cancel.
What If The Mariners Had Drafted Anthony Rendon?
It could have easily been Anthony Rendon. The media certainly believed the Mariners would draft Rice’s star third baseman with the second overall draft pick in 2011, despite injury concerns. Former Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik recently told Corey Brock of The Athletic, “We liked Rendon…a lot. Going into the draft, he was probably the player a lot of people thought we were going to take…and we did, too.”
Most observers expected the Pirates to use the first overall pick on UCLA righty Gerrit Cole, and indeed they did. That scenario left two strong possibilities for the Mariners: Rendon, and University of Virginia lefty Danny Hultzen. Rendon was considered by some to be the top talent in the 2011 draft even with recent ankle and shoulder injuries. But those injuries loomed large for the Mariners, with Zduriencik telling Brock, “Anthony had some physical issues. He’d been hurt the year before and was limited somewhat. There were a few things that were concerning.”
You can debate whether it’s fair to criticize the Mariners’ choice of Hultzen in hindsight. Zduriencik told Brock, “Danny was the guy who everyone loved. It made a lot of sense.” But while Hultzen was by no means a reach or a bad pick at the time, he was considered the “safe” choice. After Day 1 of the draft, Keith Law (then of ESPN) said the Mariners “shock[ed] everyone,” elaborating, “I’m not criticizing Hultzen in the least here, but I think drafting at No. 2 overall is a rare chance to go for ceiling, and the Mariners didn’t do that. They took a very safe, very good college pitcher who will move quickly but doesn’t have No. 1 starter upside.” Unfortunately, even the safest pitchers carry extreme risk, and Hultzen’s career was all but wiped out by shoulder issues.
No one could have foreseen that the draft’s best player would turn out to be Mookie Betts, as the Red Sox landed him 172nd overall. But the draft gurus were correct on Rendon, who ultimately has been the second-most productive member of his draft class by measure of Baseball-Reference WAR. And that was a draft that included Cole, Francisco Lindor (also of interest to the Mariners), George Springer, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, and many other excellent players.
To the surprise of the baseball world, the Pirates, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Royals all decided to pass on Rendon. Maybe it was the ankle and shoulder injuries, maybe it was adviser Scott Boras, but whatever the reason, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was “pleasantly surprised” when Rendon fell all the way to the sixth spot. The Nationals went with who they considered to be the best player available, even with Ryan Zimmerman entrenched at third base. That choice paid off in a huge way for the Nationals. But with apologies to Mariners fans, let’s consider an alternate universe where Zduriencik called Rendon’s name instead of Hultzen’s on June 6th, 2011.
Rendon reached the Majors in 2013 and had his first highly productive season in 2014. By that point, Kyle Seager was already established as the Mariners’ third baseman. Seager’s 18.4 fWAR run from 2013-16 was actually much better than what Rendon did, albeit with a slightly lower ceiling. As with the Nationals, Rendon would have likely been shifted to second base as a rookie to accommodate the incumbent third baseman.
The Mariners had used the second overall pick in the 2009 draft on Dustin Ackley, whom they decided to shift to second base the following year. Ackley never hit like the Mariners (and everyone else) expected him to, nor did he take to playing second base, so the club gradually shifted him to the outfield starting in 2013. Second base would have been the primary infield opening for a top prospect, since Brad Miller came up around the same time to take over at shortstop. In real life, the Mariners had a quality middle infield prospect coming in Nick Franklin. Franklin was capable of playing shortstop but seen as more of a second baseman. Even with Ackley in the outfield and Miller at shortstop, Seager’s success at the hot corner would likely have left Rendon and Franklin to battle for the Mariners’ second base job as rookies in 2013.
Franklin was a top 50 prospect prior to 2013 and he had an OK showing as a rookie that year, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the Mariners from signing Robinson Cano to a franchise-altering ten-year, $240MM free agent contract that offseason. Rendon’s real-life rookie showing was similarly mediocre, though he was more highly-regarded than Franklin.
Franklin became a popular trade chip once Cano signed in Seattle. The Mariners ultimately parted him at the 2014 trade deadline in the deal that netted them center fielder Austin Jackson and landed David Price in Detroit. With Cano in the fold, would the Mariners have traded Franklin, Rendon, or both? And when? The Mariners may have been more willing to part with at least one of them during the offseason rather than at the trade deadline, and were known to have interest in Price.
Or, would the presence of two promising second basemen have led the Mariners to spend their money elsewhere? Though Cano was the biggest fish that winter, that was also the point where the Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka and Jacoby Ellsbury and the Rangers signed Shin-Soo Choo. The Mariners never seemed to be in play for Ellsbury despite his Northwest roots, but Tanaka or Choo would have been viable financially if not for the Cano signing. In the end, Cano performed well in his five seasons with the Mariners, and though they had to include Edwin Diaz and a lot of cash, Cano was part of the reason the Mets were willing to part with Jarred Kelenic in December 2018 (more on that here). In a roundabout way, if the Mariners had drafted Rendon, they might not have Kelenic now … though they might have other appealing players instead.
If the Mariners’ hypothetical second base surplus would have prevented them from trying to upgrade the position in the 2013-14 offseason, what would have become of Cano? A return to the Bronx was the prevailing guess in November of 2013, yet the Yankees reportedly topped out at a $175MM offer for Cano despite going on a spending spree on other players. Would Cano have swallowed that alleged lack of respect and remained a Yankee? Or would some other team have stepped up to fill the void?
The Dodgers sat out the Cano bidding that winter. The Mets took a meeting with Cano’s agent Brodie Van Wagenen, their future GM, but the team might have just wanted the chance to meet Jay-Z. Beyond the Yankees and Mariners, there was never another serious suitor for Cano that winter, at least as it was known to the public. If somehow the hypothetical presence of Rendon would have reduced the Mariners’ interest in Cano, the logical conclusion is that he would have returned to the Yankees — at much less than $240MM.
But the Mariners went into that winter intending to make a big splash, and it’s quite possible they would have traded Franklin for pitching, kept Rendon, and signed Cano. In reality the Cano signing mostly tapped out the Mariners’ budget, and they traded for the affordable Logan Morrison to split time at first base with Justin Smoak in 2014. Though it would been a waste of his defensive talents, might the Mariners have found a temporary home for Rendon at first base? The 2014 Mariners fell one win shy of a Wild Card berth, a season in which Rendon was worth 6.4 fWAR while Morrison and Smoak combined for 0.6. It’s not too hard to picture a 2014 Mariners club with Rendon, Cano, and a pitcher acquired for Franklin overtaking the Royals in the Wild Card game and maybe even making a deep playoff run.
Even a 2014 playoff run might not have been enough to save Zduriencik’s job, given all the things that went wrong in 2015. So even in our alternate Mariners universe, Jerry Dipoto still takes over as GM in 2015 and remakes the team in his image. Rendon might have been enough to put the Mariners in the playoffs in 2016 and/or ’18, changing the trajectory of the franchise. In reality, the Mariners continue to suffer through the longest postseason drought in the sport.
The implications of the Mariners choosing Hultzen over Rendon nine years ago can make your head spin, and we didn’t dive into the hypothetical consequences of the Yankees keeping Cano, the Nationals drafting someone else sixth overall, or the Diamondbacks, Orioles, or Royals drafting Hultzen instead of Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, and Bubba Starling. Feel free to do so in the comments or let us know how you think things might have played out had the Mariners drafted Rendon.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
How The White Sox Could Benefit From A Shortened Season
The White Sox could be in a unique position to benefit from a shortened 2020 season. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explores the team’s substantial upside in today’s video.
What If Max Scherzer Stayed A Tiger?
The Tigers were unable to get a contract extension done with ace righty Max Scherzer before the 2014 season. What if they had ponied up the cash? Jeff Todd explores that alternate universe in today’s video.
The Mets’ Disastrous Trade For Edwin Diaz & Robinson Cano
The Mets’ trade for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano could hardly have gone worse in the first year. But how was the blockbuster deal viewed at the time? MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explores this huge Mets-Mariners swap in today’s video.
The State Of MLBTR
As the founder of MLB Trade Rumors, I’d like to take a brief moment to update you on the current state of the website. I realize that with the distress of COVID-19, the situation of a baseball website is the last thing on your mind, so I’ll keep it short.
Like most small businesses, mine has been hit hard by the coronavirus. Traffic is down due to MLB’s delayed season, and I don’t expect our typical trade deadline bump or a normal 2020-21 offseason. Ad rates have plummeted as well. As you know, MLBTR is free and entirely supported by banner advertising. While I’ve had to suspend some interesting but non-essential projects, in the long-term I think MLBTR will be fine.
You may have noticed that our overall post volume has decreased due to the lack of baseball news, and we’ve increased our original posts to fill the void. When player transactions and related rumors start back up, we’ll be covering that fully as we have over the last 15 years. Until then, we’ll continue experimenting with different topics both current and historical to create interesting reading material. Be sure to let us know what you’d like to see. Also, please note that the advent of weekday videos on MLBTR is not any kind of “pivot to video” and does not replace posts or result in fewer written posts on the site. Video is something we decided to try out this year, as the format may suit certain content better than the written word. We hope you’ll check out our YouTube channel and subscribe, but if it’s not for you, that’s OK.
I appreciate so many of you continuing to visit the site every day. If you’d like to help, just keep visiting, commenting, and retweeting. And be sure to tell your friends about MLBTR and share the link with them. Thanks for reading!
Video: Could MLB Start In May?
MLB and the players are considering starting the season as early as May, playing games in the Phoenix area without fans present. Jeff Todd unpacks the pros and cons of the idea in today’s video.
Why Did The Dodgers Trade Yordan Alvarez?
A monster debut by Astros DH Yordan Alvarez earned him the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2019, but why did the Dodgers let him go in the first place? Jeff Todd retraces a 2016 trade that seemed minor at the time.
How To Get A Job In Baseball, According To GMs
Working in baseball operations for a Major League team is a dream job for many baseball fanatics. If front office job-seekers are being honest, the pinnacle would be to one day land in the GM’s chair and call the shots on trades, free agent signings, and draft picks. But in such a competitive field, how do you stand out? What should you focus on to become as appealing as possible to an MLB team in a job interview?
Seven years ago, I polled many MLB executives on their advice for high school students with front office aspirations. With so many new executives in the game since then, I decided to move a bit further down the career path and ask this question:
What one piece of advice would you give to a college student who hopes to work in baseball operations one day?
I posed this question to many of MLB’s top-ranking baseball operations executives. Just like the rest of us, these people are currently sheltered in place with their families trying to get some work done in these difficult and strange times. The following ten execs kindly took the time to answer my question: Ross Atkins of the Blue Jays, Jeff Bridich of the Rockies, Ben Cherington of the Pirates, James Click of the Astros, Mike Elias of the Orioles, Derek Falvey of the Twins, Matt Kleine of the Brewers, Dayton Moore of the Royals, Brodie Van Wagenen of the Mets, and Dick Williams of the Reds. Their answers are below.
I always think of the creative examples of how several of the current team’s GMs and Presidents got their foot in the door when asked this question. Without sharing those ideas specifically, I tell the individual who asked to think of something that they can bring to the table today that would be beneficial for a baseball operations team. Is there something that they do or can do that would have an immediate impact even if very small. It could be data analysis, programming, scouting, performance coaching, or leadership/communication application but ideally in the form of a project or deliverable and in a perfect world something that the organization doesn’t already have.
I believe that if those looking to get into baseball have excelled in other arenas they should think about how they have done that and share that in a way that is applicable to baseball as that is usually an attractive approach to those who are deciding to add to their operations teams. – Ross Atkins, Blue Jays Executive Vice President, Baseball Operations & General Manager
In terms of trying to trying to get into the world of baseball operations out of college, mindset and attitude will determine a lot. Create for yourself a mindset built around relentlessness, flexibility and hard work. The typical college school year and/or graduation timeframe do not lineup perfectly with when most Major League teams are hiring. So there could be some lag time between leaving college and getting hired.
Also, there usually are hundreds, maybe thousands, more applicants for jobs than there are jobs available. So chances are you’ll hear a bunch of “Nos” before you hear a “Yes”. That’s where relentlessness, flexibility and work ethic come into play. Your first opportunity in the baseball industry may not come in the perfect shape, size and package that you desire – but that’s OK. Be flexible in what you are willing to do and where you’re willing to work (be that departmentally or geographically).
At some point in your job search, you may feel like you are being annoying or that you’re bothering team employees too often. But know that relentlessness and persistence often pay off. It’s tough to count up how many times we have said over the years, “You have to give that person credit for his/her persistence,” whether we hired that person or not. If the worst outcome is that you are not hired (yet) but you are given credit for your relentless desire to work in the game, then it’s worth it.
Finally, look at the job search process like it is a job in itself. Put in the time. Make sure your resume is as good as it possibly can be. Ask thoughtful questions of any and all people who could help you. And always be ready – after you’ve sent off your resume and applied for a job, you never know when a team might call you. Those people who are ready for an in-depth discussion at a moment’s notice usually make a good first impression. – Jeff Bridich, Rockies Executive Vice President & General Manager
It’s hard to narrow down to one but if I had to I’d say finding opportunities to solve complicated problems in groups. Almost all of the work we do in baseball operations focuses on assessing, predicting, or improving human performance. Human performance is complicated. Almost none of the work we do in baseball is done by ourselves. Just about everything we do is done by teams of people. So I’d say the more practice combining those two things the better. – Ben Cherington, Pirates General Manager
There’s no magic bullet, no secret code to getting into baseball. All of us have a unique story about how we got here, so play to your strengths and put yourself in as good a position as possible to take any job that you’re offered, even if – especially if – it’s not in the area in which you see yourself long term. Every job is an opportunity to show what you can do, a chance to gain valuable experience and perspective on how the game works, and to make sure that this lifestyle is something you want to take on. Finally, don’t get discouraged! It took a lot of us a long time to get into the game, but it’s worth it. – James Click, Astros General Manager
I think there are so many public forums today to showcase your work online. Whether it’s contract analysis, data analysis, or scouting evaluation that you want to do, you can start to build this body of work on your own, before anyone hires you. It is so helpful when we are interviewing when someone has a portfolio already started. It shows how you work and think, but also shows initiative and that you are truly passionate about this line of work. – Mike Elias, Orioles Executive Vice President and General Manager
I’d recommend that you don’t wait around for the perfect opportunity to come your way and instead find a way to create one. People who want to work in baseball will reach out and say they’re just waiting for that “break” to come their way. It’s not uncommon that a year later we’ll hear from them again still waiting for that opening to show up.
My suggestion – dive into a topic within the game that interests you, learn as much as you can about it, and then generate a work product that shows you have the baseline skills and passion to impact a baseball operation as soon as you walk through the door. Don’t be afraid to try something because you might fail. Of all the resumes we get, it’s the ones that are accompanied by a work product (and therefore a willingness to put yourself out there) that generate the most interest. – Derek Falvey, Twins President of Baseball Operations
My advice to students is to create baseball-specific opportunities for yourself. Don’t wait for them to come to you. Volunteer to capture video, analyze data or operate pitch tracking software for your school’s team. Connect with your Sports Information Director and ask how you can help. Learn SQL. Learn Spanish. Contact baseball-centric websites and volunteer your time. Devise your own work product that attempts to solve meaningful questions you believe are currently unanswered within the public sphere. This is especially important because providing MLB clubs with examples of self-driven work product showcases your curiosity, thought process, and reasoning. It’s equally as important – if not more so – than a strong resume.
Students should also understand that our approach to hiring is shaped by our constant pursuit of the next marginal win. How can the next hire help us win games both today and in the future? Students who approach us with hard skills, novel work product and a strong resume quickly move to the front of that line. – Matt Kleine, Brewers Vice President – Baseball Operations
As it pertains to teams and front office, compatibility is the most important trait. This will only exist if you have an above and beyond attitude with the commitment to do the jobs that others simply find meaningless. You must have an “others first” mindset and model that behavior. Finally, never stop looking at this game from the eyes of your youth. – Dayton Moore, Royals Senior Vice President – Baseball Operations/General Manager
1. When interviewing with a prospective employer/executive, be specific about the area in which you want to work. Prove to your audience that you have you done the research in his/her area of focus. This will enable you to be versed enough to hold a meaningful conversation. Those who want a “PARTICULAR job” are much more compelling than those who simply just want “a job.”
2. Be willing to work in any city that has an opportunity to further your pursuits. Don’t let geography limit your search. – Brodie Van Wagenen, Mets Executive Vice President & General Manager
The best way to get your foot in the door is to figure out how you can solve a problem for me that I may not have even known I had. It makes for a much more effective cold call when you email your resume into an organization if you can articulate what you can do that the Reds are not doing today that could make us better. At least it makes us more likely to read further.
Keep abreast of the evolving trends in the industry and tailor your coursework accordingly. If you have baseball experience, focus on adding database management or machine learning or something technical. And if you are technically skilled, work on adding the baseball experience however you can. – Dick Williams, Reds President of Baseball Operations
Video: Grading Rick Hahn’s Trade History For The White Sox
White Sox GM Rick Hahn has shaped the team as both a buyer and seller in many major trades over the years, involving Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, Jeff Samardzija, Jake Peavy, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and more. Check out today’s video to see Jeff Todd’s evaluation of Hahn’s trade history.


