Tim Dierkes | MLB Trade Rumors

This Winter’s Most Interesting Free Agent Relievers

By Tim Dierkes | October 1, 2019 at 2:23pm CDT

I’ve added all of MLB’s projected free agent relievers into a custom FanGraphs leaderboard, which you can check out here. For the full list of 2019-20 MLB Free Agents, click here. Let’s take a closer look!

Average Fastball Velocity

Aroldis Chapman – 98.4 mph. To become a free agent, Chapman will first have to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his contract with the Yankees. I believe he’ll do so, unless the Yankees are willing to tack on an additional year. If he reaches the open market, look for Chapman to attempt to get past Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal signed two years ago. That could be a challenge, since Chapman would likely be saddled with a qualifying offer.
Trevor Rosenthal – 98.0 mph. Rosenthal was a big prize for the Nationals last November despite missing all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery. He emerged with his velocity intact, but no semblance of control.
Hector Rondon – 96.8 mph. Rondon has always been prone to the longball, and this year his strikeout rate took a significant dip.
Daniel Hudson – 96.1 mph. After signing a two-year free agent deal with the Pirates in December 2016, Hudson was traded to the Rays and then released in March 2018. After a stint with the Dodgers that year, he signed a minor league deal with the Angels before the ’18 season. He failed to make the team, instead signing a Major League deal with Toronto. The Jays sent him to the Nationals at this year’s trade deadline, and he became a key part of the team’s bullpen down the stretch.
Arodys Vizcaino – 96.0 mph. Vizcaino pitched only four innings for the Braves before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery in April. Vizcaino and his salary were sent to Seattle in the May Anthony Swarzak deal. We’ve heard little about Vizcaino’s health since then, but if he’s able to pitch in 2020 he’ll be an interesting free agent.
Jake Diekman – 95.8 mph. Diekman inked an affordable contract with the Royals in February and was shipped to the A’s near the trade deadline. Walks are a longstanding problem.
Chris Martin – 95.7 mph. A 21st round draft pick of the Rockies in 2005, Martin battled health issues and failed to get traction in the Majors. Then he spent a couple of years dominating out of the bullpen for the Nippon Ham Fighters, and returned stateside with a two-year deal with the Rangers. Martin was dealt to Atlanta near the trade deadline. He has dominant peripheral stats this year and should be a buzzworthy free agent despite turning 34 next summer.
Andrew Cashner – 95.4 mph. The Orioles traded Cashner to the Red Sox in July. The veteran made six starts in Boston before moving to the bullpen, where he pitched pretty well aside from a rough final outing on September 28th.
Nate Jones – 94.9 mph. Jones’ season ended in April due to a flexor mass tear, though he was traded to the Rangers at the deadline. If the club balks at his $3.75MM club option, he’ll hit the open market.
Drew Pomeranz – 94.5 mph. After struggling mightily in 17 starts for the Giants, Pomeranz strung together four scoreless relief appearances before being dealt to Milwaukee. He’s been truly dominant out of the Brewers’ pen and should be a popular free agent.

Strikeout Percentage – Minimum 20 Innings

Drew Pomeranz – 47.2%
Will Smith – 37.4%. Smith is 16 months younger than Chapman, and will likely be on the top of many teams’ free agent reliever boards. The southpaw made the All-Star team for the Giants this year and could seek a four-year contract.
Aroldis Chapman – 36.2%
Chris Martin – 30.1%
Jake Diekman – 29.8%
Collin McHugh – 28.2%. McHugh has had success as a starter for the Astros, but he was moved to the bullpen in May this year and battled elbow issues. He was shut down for the season a few weeks ago.
Pedro Strop – 27.5%. Strop struggled through hamstring and neck injuries this year, but prior to that he authored a five-year run of excellence as a late-inning staple for the Cubs. Even in his struggles this year, his groundball rate ranked fourth among relievers.
Will Harris – 27.1%. Harris, a ninth round draft pick of the Rockies in 2006, joined the Diamondbacks in a 2013 waiver claim and found his first big league success. The Astros were still able to pluck him off waivers again in November 2014, and he’s provided them with a 2.36 ERA in 297 innings over five years. His 1.50 ERA leads free agent relievers.
Greg Holland – 27.0%. Holland signed a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks in January, earning the team’s closer job. He lost the gig in late July and was designated for assignment soon after.
Tyler Clippard – 26.8%. Clippard inked a minor league deal with the Indians in February, made the team in late April, and pitched quite well on the season.

ERA – Minimum 40 Innings

Will Harris – 1.50
Aroldis Chapman – 2.21
Daniel Hudson – 2.38
Tyler Clippard – 2.38
Brandon Kintzler – 2.68. Kintzler put together a fine bounceback season for the Cubs, ranking behind only Jared Hughes among relievers with a 54.7% groundball rate.
Yusmeiro Petit – 2.71. Petit ranked sixth in baseball with 83 relief innings, and third with a walk rate of just 3.3%. He has a reasonable club option that the Athletics could very well exercise, however.
Will Smith – 2.76
Hector Rondon – 2.85
Steve Cishek – 2.95. The sidearmer’s peripheral stats this year weren’t amazing, but he did rank 10th with a 50% groundball rate.
Craig Stammen – 3.29. Stammen has put together an excellent three-year run out of the Padres’ bullpen, with a 3.06 ERA in 241 1/3 innings. Like Martin and Petit, he demonstrated impeccable control.

Others to watch this winter who had success in 2018 include Dellin Betances, Jeremy Jeffress, Jared Hughes, and David Hernandez.

Boras Corp. Amateur Department Research Job Opening

By Tim Dierkes | September 13, 2019 at 9:41am CDT

From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.

Position: Boras Corp. Market Research Analysis & Presentation Design
Location: Southern California

Description:
From our Southern California office you will help support a team of representatives by analyzing baseball markets, creating marketing and presentation materials using multi-media, and managing performance and information databases. The ideal candidate is a creative thinker, well-organized, a good communicator, and team-oriented. While previous experience in baseball is not required, the candidate must possess a passion for the game. This is a full-time position we aim to fill as soon as possible. It is located in Newport Beach, CA (relocation to Orange County is not provided).

Preferred Qualifications:

Proficient in Microsoft Excel and Keynote, Apple iBooks familiarity.
Experience in creating presentations
Prior baseball or team sports experience.

To Apply:

To apply, please send an email with the subject “Research Position” to baseballresume@gmail.com by September 29, 2019.

The body of the email should contain the following, in this order:

Your resume.
In addition to the traditional resume information, please be sure to include any details about athletic experience.
Your full contact information.
How you obtained this listing.
Your minimum annual salary requirement (needs to be a specific dollar figure).

Emails that do not contain all of this information will not be considered. Please do not send cover letters or attachments. Any application with an attachment will be discarded. Non-local candidates must be able to find transportation to Southern California to interview.

Twins To Acquire Sam Dyson

By Tim Dierkes | July 31, 2019 at 4:53pm CDT

The Twins have acquired reliever Sam Dyson from the Giants, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register was first to report rumblings of the deal. According to Birch, prospects Prelander Berroa, Jaylin Davis and Kai-Wei Teng will head to the Giants in the swap. Dyson is the first-place Twins’ second veteran relief addition, as they picked up Sergio Romo Saturday night. The Giants, interestingly, traded away relievers Dyson, Mark Melancon, Drew Pomeranz, and Ray Black today while keeping Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith and adding second baseman Scooter Gennett.

Dyson, 31, has posted a 2.47 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.53 HR/9, and 55% groundball rate in 51 innings for the Giants this year. Last year, Dyson ranked ninth among MLB relievers with a 61.3% groundball rate. Dyson’s MLB career took off after a Marlins waiver claim back in 2013, and he posted a fine 38 save campaign for the 2016 Rangers. The Giants added Dyson in a June 2017 trade. The righty is earning $5MM this year and will be under team control for 2020. Dyson and Romo join a Twins bullpen led by Taylor Rogers, Ryne Harper, and Trevor May.

None of the three prospects obtained by the Giants rank within the Twins’ top 30, according to MLB.com. Berroa, 19, is a starting pitcher out of the Dominican Republic who currently sports a 5.40 ERA across seven starts in rookie ball. Davis, a 25-year-old outfielder, earned a promotion to Triple-A in June and is hitting a robust .298/.392/.563 with 25 home runs on the season. Teng, 20, is a low-A starting pitcher with a 1.60 ERA over 50 2/3 innings this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nationals To Acquire Roenis Elias

By Tim Dierkes | July 31, 2019 at 1:41pm CDT

After first picking up reliever Daniel Hudson from the Blue Jays, the Nationals have reached an agreement to acquire lefty Roenis Elias from the Mariners. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first to report a deal was close, with Joel Sherman of the New York Post indicating that Elias had indeed been traded to the Nats. Minor leaguers Elvis Alvarado and Taylor Guilbeau will head to Seattle in the deal, according to Rosenthal.

Elias, 31 tomorrow, broke in as a starter with the Mariners in 2014 and was re-acquired by the club in April 2018 after a two-year stint with Boston. Working exclusively out of Seattle’s pen this year, he has a 4.40 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.53 HR/9, and 34.1% groundball rate in 47 innings. He’s faced 60 left-handed hitters in 2019, and they’ve teed off to the tune of a .353/.441/.549 batting line. He’s been much more effective against lefties in the past. With Hunter Strickland going down with a lat injury in April, Elias was able to slide into the Mariners’ closer role and rack up 14 saves in 16 opportunities. Elias is earning $910K this year and is under team control through 2021.

The Nationals notoriously own the worst bullpen ERA in baseball, with their crew tallying a 5.97 ERA in 321 1/3 innings. Aside from closer Sean Doolittle, they’ve currently got Matt Grace and Tony Sipp coming out of the bullpen from the left side. Neither has been particularly effective. The Nationals signed veteran lefty Jonny Venters in late May and selected his contract a month later, but he’s on the IL with a shoulder strain.

Guilbeau, a lefty reliever who was promoted to Triple-A earlier this month, ranked as the Nationals’ 15th-best prospect according to MLB.com. The site rated him as a 40 grade prospect, suggesting he can ride a mid-90s heater and above-average slider to a career as a left-handed specialist. Alvarado was signed as an international free agent for $700K out of the Dominican Republic in 2015. He played right field regularly in 2017 in the Dominican Summer League, moving to the mound in 2018-19 in the Gulf Coast League.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Download Our Free Trade Rumors App

By Tim Dierkes | July 31, 2019 at 8:00am CDT

If you’re a fan of MLB Trade Rumors, be sure to download our free Trade Rumors app for iOS and Android. The Trade Rumors app is the easiest way to keep up with the MLB Trade Deadline on your mobile device, and it allows you to set up custom notifications for any player or team so you’ll never miss breaking news. Trade Rumors has consistently averaged 4.7-4.8 stars out of five on both app stores, and best of all, it’s free!

Trade Rumors for Apple devices

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Turn $5 Into $5000 At DraftKings

By Tim Dierkes | July 31, 2019 at 2:00am CDT

For just a $5 entry fee, you can take home a $5,000 prize! DraftKings is offering a winner-take-all contest to MLBTR readers, so first place will take home the entire $5,000. The lineup submission deadline is Thursday August 1st at 7:05pm eastern time, and there’s a limit of one entry per person. Enter the contest now!

This is a sponsored post from DraftKings. Eligibility restrictions apply. See website for details.

2019-20 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | July 16, 2019 at 5:33pm CDT

We last checked in on the 2019-20 free agent class at the end of April. No extensions have been signed since then, but otherwise there’s plenty of movement in the rankings. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power. To view the entire list of 2019-20 MLB free agents, click here.

1. Gerrit Cole. Cole maintains his spot atop this list, earning a second consecutive All-Star nod and cementing himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game. We haven’t seen a starting pitcher sign a seven-year deal since Stephen Strasburg inked his $175MM extension in May 2016. The largest contract signed by a starter remains David Price’s seven-year, $217MM deal from December 2015. The way free agency has been trending, it’s difficult to say whether Cole can reach the $200MM heights of Price, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke. For more on Cole’s free agency, click here.

2. Anthony Rendon. In the midst of his best offensive season yet, Rendon was finally voted into the All-Star game by his peers, though he was unable to participate. Rendon quietly keeps putting up six-win seasons as the Nationals’ third baseman, and he’s on the cusp of a huge contract. Rendon’s agent Scott Boras and the Nationals discussed an extension this month, according to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, but Boras suggested the ball is in the club’s court. A six-year deal could be a reasonable goal.

3. Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is adding another fine season to his resume, if a bit homer-prone. It’s shaping up to be his first three-win season since 2016. He’s one of baseball’s most likely trade candidates this month, though the Giants are complicating matters by playing well of late. San Francisco is only three games out of the Wild Card, and if that holds up over the next two weeks, I can see the club holding onto him. That’s relevant to this post in that the team would saddle him with a qualifying offer in that case, reducing his earning power. In such a scenario, an extension with the Giants could begin to make sense.

4. Zack Wheeler. Wheeler’s spot on this list is precarious, as the 29-year-old righty recently landed on the IL for shoulder fatigue. The timing of the injury gives scant time for Wheeler to re-establish his health in advance of the July 31st trade deadline, and also stings from the pitcher’s standpoint if it leads to a qualifying offer after the season. Mike Puma of the New York Post suggests a qualifying offer from the Mets “seems unlikely” for Wheeler, but I think if he pitches reasonably well to close out the year, he’ll get one. Though Wheeler’s ERA is up to 4.69, he’s demonstrated skills that typically lead to something closer to 4.00.

5. J.D. Martinez. Martinez has the ability to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract after this season. He owns a solid 129 wRC+ to date, though that’s short of the lofty standard he set in years prior. As a DH who turns 32 in August, I don’t believe Martinez would do much better than $62.5MM on the open market, but his earning power still secures a spot on this list.

6. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman can opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his contract after the season, and there’s a decent chance the Yankees’ closer exercises that right. The Yankees could also get out ahead of the situation by adding, say, an extra year and $20MM to the deal. But Chapman turns 32 in February, and the Yankees may be content to let him leave even after another excellent season. Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal from December 2017 could be a target for Chapman if he hits the open market.

7. Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu’s 1.97 ERA in 15 starts last year seemed impossible to beat, yet this year his ERA sits at 1.78 and he started the All-Star Game for the NL. The 32-year-old lefty has walked a mere 2.5% of batters faced this year, best in baseball. Though Ryu has not pitched 150 innings in a season since 2014, his injuries have not involved his arm or shoulder following his September 2015 elbow debridement procedure. If Rich Hill can get three years and $48MM heading into his age-37 campaign, it stands to reason that Ryu can get something similar heading into his age-33 season, particularly since he’s ineligible for another qualifying offer.

8. Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is having a respectable bounceback season for the Cardinals, with a 118 wRC+ in 326 plate appearances. However, he’s a bat-first left fielder and is currently on the IL with multiple finger fractures. Ozuna will be just 29 in November, but he won’t be hitting the same market that saw Justin Upton snag a five-year, $106MM extension in November 2017. Ozuna also may come with a qualifying offer attached, and seems like a player who could face a difficult free agency.

9. Jake Odorizzi. A new entrant to this list, Odorizzi made his first All-Star team this year and owns a 3.06 ERA through 94 innings. 30 in March, he should be in line for a healthy contract with a strong second half. However, he may be saddled by a qualifying offer and could fail to reach the new standard of four years and $68MM set by Nathan Eovaldi and Miles Mikolas.

10. Yasmani Grandal. Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year offer from the Mets in excess of $50MM during the offseason before signing a one-year, $18.25MM deal with Milwaukee. He’s matching last year’s excellent offense thus far and won’t have to contend with a qualifying offer this time, and should come out ahead on the gamble.

Honorable mentions: Stephen Strasburg (can opt of remaining four years and $100MM, Kenley Jansen (can opt out of remaining two years and $38MM), Josh Donaldson, Yasiel Puig, Didi Gregorius, Nicholas Castellanos, Will Smith, Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, Mike Moustakas

17 Above Average Hitters Who Could Be Available This Month

By Tim Dierkes | July 2, 2019 at 10:30pm CDT

Looking to trade for an impact bat this month? Options are limited, but here are 17 position players who are projected by Steamer to post a weighted on-base average of at least .321 (the American League non-pitcher average mark) from here on out.

First Basemen/Designated Hitters

Jose Abreu, White Sox (.351 projected wOBA) – As a player about to hit free agency on a non-contending team, you’d think Abreu would be a prime candidate to be traded by the White Sox. However, interest is mutual in keeping the 32-year-old in Chicago, and that seems the most likely outcome.
Brandon Belt, Giants (.347) – Though underpowered for his position, Belt gets on base and can still help an offense. The obstacle to a trade is his contract, which still has more than $37MM remaining through 2021. He also has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to ten teams.
Justin Smoak, Blue Jays (.347) – Smoak is best utilized in a platoon, since he doesn’t hit well against left-handed pitching. He’ll have less than $3MM left on his contract at the trade deadline and is a strong candidate to be traded.
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (.345) – Cabrera’s power hasn’t shown up this season, and he’ll require a DH spot. But the real impediment is the $142MM owed to him through 2023, plus a full no-trade clause. It seems impossible the Tigers could find a way to unload that contract, even if an accomplished veteran hitter like Cabrera could help a contender.

Outfielders

Yasiel Puig, Reds (.348) – As rough as Puig’s year has been, from May 3rd onward he’s hitting .275/.335/.534 in 194 plate appearances. A case could be made that he’s the best hitter available this month, though with playoff odds of 6.9%, the Reds might hang around just enough to prevent a Puig trade. He’s a free agent after the season.
Michael Conforto, Mets (.347) – The Mets have similar playoff odds to the Reds, and may be reluctant to punt on their season unless that changes. Even then, trading the 26-year-old Conforto with two years of control remaining seems unlikely.
Nicholas Castellanos, Tigers (.344) – A free agent after the season, Castellanos is very likely to be traded this month. At the deadline he’ll have about $3.3MM left on his contract. Castellanos continues to struggle defensively, but he’s clearly an above-average hitter.
Trey Mancini, Orioles (.334) – Mancini, 27, is having what appears to be a breakout year and probably should have represented the Orioles at the All-Star Game. He’s controlled through 2022, so the Orioles should be in no rush to trade him if the offers aren’t impressive. But teams seeking a controllable corner outfielder/first baseman will certainly be calling on Mancini.
Jorge Soler, Royals (.333) – Perhaps the most remarkable stat about the oft-injured Soler is that he’s played in every single Royals game this year. A healthy amount of time at DH plays a part in that. Soler could wind up with 40 home runs if he stays healthy, though he’s not hitting for average or drawing walks this year. He still brings undeniable right-handed power, and he’s controlled through 2021.
Starling Marte, Pirates (.333) – Since returning from a collision-related injury on April 30th, Marte is hitting .295/.340/.485 in 257 plate appearances. He’s also the only player here who profiles as a regular in center field. Marte can be controlled affordably through 2021. However, the Pirates don’t seem inclined to give up on their season, so Marte and the rest of their outfielders will probably stay put.
Mitch Haniger, Mariners (.329) – Haniger, recovering from a ruptured testicle, is not expected back until after the All-Star break. The Mariners control him through 2022 and seem unlikely to rush him back in late July to make such a crucial trade.
Domingo Santana, Mariners (.327) – Santana has two years of control remaining, and the Mariners will likely prefer to keep him in their outfield with Haniger as they try to contend in the near future. But with Jerry Dipoto at the helm, I had to list Santana here.
Corey Dickerson, Pirates (.323)
Melky Cabrera, Pirates (.321)

Infielders

Derek Dietrich, Reds (.329) – As with Puig, the Reds may be close enough to contention (and the offers unimpressive enough) that they ride with the players they have rather than execute a sell-off. But with Scooter Gennett back, the Reds could at least consider trading him or Dietrich this month.
Tommy La Stella, Angels (.321) – The Angels’ surprising All-Star is under team control only through next year, and the club’s playoff odds sit at 2.2%. Given that La Stella only just hit his way out of bench duty with a stellar half-season, the Halos would likely have a hard time cashing him in for notable prospects.
Wilson Ramos, Mets (.321) – If you’re seeking an offensive-minded catcher, Ramos is your guy. The Mets could try to unload the $13.5MM still left on his contract, though they’d have to hand over the reins to Tomas Nido full-time at least for the rest of the season.