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Which Glove-First Shortstop Would You Rather Have?

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In a piece from MASN last week, Roch Kubatko said this of the Orioles’ search for a veteran shortstop: “The Orioles chose [Jose] Iglesias over Adeiny Hechavarría in their winter search for a glove-first shortstop.” Kubatko linked the Orioles to Hechavarria back in December, but La Pantera ultimately re-upped with the Braves on a one-year, $1MM deal. The Orioles, meanwhile, splurged on Iglesias, signing the 30-year-old gloveman for a one-year, $3MM guarantee (with a $3.5MM team option for 2021). 

Granted, the Jose Iglesias versus Adeiny Hechavarria showdown wasn’t the most compelling positional matchup of free agency. And while the Orioles may have shown interest in Hechavarria, these situations are dynamic, and the decision to sign one or the other was likely never quite so binary. Let’s use it as a jumping-off point for this player comparison anyway.

First, let’s cover the similarities, as both Cuban-born veterans are glove-first shortstops viewed generally as second-division starters. Hechavarria is a year older, and his deal comes at one-third the cost of Iglesias’, though the Orioles picked up the second year of control on Iglesias. Both players entered the league fairly young and both saw their first significant action in 2012 (Iglesias at 22 with the Red Sox, Hechavarria at 23 with the Blue Jays). And both have since gone on to play for multiple franchises (Iglesias for Boston, Detroit, Cincinnati and Baltimore, Hechavarria for Toronto, Miami, Tampa, Pittsburgh, both New Yorks, and Atlanta).

Since Iglesias has a more stable resume, my guess is his name carries a little more weight, so let’s start there. Iglesias, 30, has produced a total of 11.1 rWAR/11.6 fWAR thus far over his eight years in the bigs (he appeared in 10 games as a 21-year-old in 2011, but missed all of the 2014 season). The right-handed batter has traded off between ~2.5 fWAR and ~1.5 fWAR seasons going all the way back to his rookie campaign, but either way he presents as an above-average option at short. He produced 9 OAA at short last year, putting him among the elite options defensively at short.

The batting line is the question with Iglesias after posting a career line of .273/.315/.371. Included therein, however, is a fair amount of year-to-year variance. Early in his career, Iglesias was a .300 hitter, but over his final three seasons in Detroit (2016 to 2018) he managed a batting average of just .259 BA. The walk rate has been steadily below average, so when he can’t hit his way on base, his whole offensive profile suffers. He’s a difficult guy to strike out, and as a guy who puts the ball in play without much oomph, his offensive value is tied directly to his BABIP. When his BABIP falls below .300, his overall line underwhelms. When the ball bounces his way, such as in 2013, 2015, and 2019, Iglesias turns into an asset with the bat: combined .296 BA in those seasons.

Iglesias has also gained a modicum of power over the years. His isolated power was consistently below .100 for the early part of his career, but over the last three seasons, Iglesias has enjoyed a small bump to .114 ISO, .120 ISO, and .119 ISO. That’s still nothing to write home about, but put together with the rest of his profile, and it’s enough to make Iglesias a viable starter.

Thanks to his every-down status as the Marlins starting shortstop from 2013 to 2016, Hechavarria has appeared in more games and seen more plate appearances over his career than Iglesias. The past three seasons have been a whirlwind, however, as Hechavarria became a part-time player while playing for seven teams in the last three seasons. By WAR, he only comes about halfway to matching Iglesias’ career totals (5.6 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR). Iglesias edges out Hechavarria in most statistical categories, including career stolen bases (52 to 35).

Though their profiles are very similar, the real difference between the two is that Hechavarria hasn’t matched the offensive ceiling of Iglesias. They walk at similar rates, and though Hechavarria strikes out a little more, he still boasts an above-average ability to put the bat on the ball. Unfortunately, he’s never quite put it all together. He hasn’t posted a batting average higher than .261 or an on-base percentage over .300 since 2015.

If there’s something in Hechavarria’s favor, it’s this: his power ticked upwards last season, to a robust .202 ISO. The added power came in only half a season of play, so it’s hard to know if the gains in Hechavarria’s game could/would be sustained over the course of a full slate of games. Back in Atlanta, we won’t likely find out, as he’s in line to back up Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies in the middle infield.

For that matter, it’s difficult to compare the contracts signed by Hechavarria and Iglesias because their expected roles are so different – and the expectations of their clubs are so very divergent. The Orioles might see triple the production from Iglesias that the Braves will from Hechavarria (to match the salary difference), but that’s at least in part because Iglesias could receive triple the playing time. Both the Orioles and Braves probably got the guy that better suits their needs – but in a vacuum – the choice is yours (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

Which Glove-First Shortstop Do You Prefer?
Jose Iglesias 70.12% (3,701 votes)
Adeiny Hechevarria 29.88% (1,577 votes)
Total Votes: 5,278

Three Teams Played Musical Chairs With First Basemen…And Five Teams Came Away Winners

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Last week, I looked at Cole Sulser’s prospects of making an impact in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. Sulser found his way to Baltimore via Tampa Bay after being included in a three-way swap of more prominent players. Today, let’s take a look at those players. 

To review: in December of 2018, the Indians, Mariners, and Rays engaged in a three-way deal that shuffled around their first basemen. In this rare three-way challenge trade, each team came away with (at least one) major-league first baseman. The Rays got Yandy Diaz, the Mariners Edwin Encarnacion, while the Indians snagged a pair of first basemen in the deal: Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana. 

There were auxiliary pieces that fit less cleanly into our first basemen carousel. The Rays picked up Sulser from Cleveland, while Tampa also sent $5MM to the Mariners. Seattle paid that money forward, sending a total of $6MM to the Indians. Coming back to Seattle was the Indians’ Round B selection in the draft. The Mariners ended up selecting right-handed pitcher Isaiah Campbell out of Arkansas with the #76 pick in the draft. Those pieces aside, let’s check in on how each team is feeling about their end of this whirlwind deal one season after the fact.

Indians

This move – and much of their offseason last winter – was largely about shuffling money around – but not wholly so. The Indians took back Santana, who had only recently been sent to Seattle after playing one season in Philadelphia. Santana made $20.3MM in 2019, but his contract was offset by sending out Encarnacion, who was owed $21.7MM in 2019 with a $5MM buyout for 2020. The difference in their salaries, plus the money acquired from Seattle netted the Indians close to $7.5MM in 2019, though they took on more long-term money in Santana.

On the field, this deal basically amounts to two exchanges for the Indians: Santana over Encarnacion in terms of big-money players, and Bauers over Diaz for cost-controlled assets. As for the first exchange, the Indians have to count this as a win. After one so-so year with the Phillies, Santana returned to form in a big way with the Indians. All aspects of Santana’s game came together in 2019. He hit .281/.397/.515 on the year with 34 home runs and 110 RBIs. He turned in his typically strong BB-K numbers, posting identical walk and strikeout rates of 15.7% (slight improvements on his career norms in both departments). His isolated power (.234 ISO) was the second-highest mark of his career, while the .397 OBP was a new career-high for a full season. Santana’s season totaled 4.6rWAR/4.4 fWAR, good for 135 wRC+, and he’ll be back in their lineup for 2020.

Bauers, on the other hand, is a work in progress. He brings an added level of versatility, appearing in 31 games at first and 53 games in left, but he’ll need to improve at the plate to put that value to work. Bauers hit just .226/.312/.371 across 423 plate appearances in his first season with the Indians. His walk rate dropped to 10.6% and with a power mark of just .145 ISO. That’s not enough pop from a first baseman/left fielder. He finished with below-average marks of 78 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR. Still, all hope is not lost for Bauers. A career-low .290 BABIP might point to some positive regression in the future, and he doesn’t even turn 25-years-old until October.

Mariners

The Mariners’ biggest get here was the draft pick. GM Jerry Dipoto continued his rebuild, and ultimately, the swap of sluggers was an avenue to add another draft pick. After taking on Santana a week prior, the Mariners shed long-term money by swapping in Encarnacion, whom they eventually flipped to the Yankees.

While with the Mariners, Encarnacion was about as good as expected, slashing .241/.356/.531 with 21 home runs in 65 games. With the rebuild in full swing, EE was never expected to spend a full season in Seattle. Given his start to the year, the Mariners’ return for the DH was a little underwhelming, but the market for teams in need of a designated hitter was limited. Still, Trader Jerry added right-hander Juan Then from the Yankees. Fangraphs ranks Then as the Mariners’ #13-ranked prospect after finishing the season in A-ball. Campbell, selected with the acquired draft choice, comes in at #16.

The Yankees and Mariners essentially split the remaining money owed Encarnacion at the time, so the M’s did see some financial benefit as well. It’s often difficult to track the wheeling and dealing done by Dipoto, but we can give it a go here. To do so, we have to go back to the deal that sent Santana from the Phillies to Seattle. Dipoto sent Jean Segura, Juan Nicasio, and James Pazos to Philly for Santana and J.P. Crawford. In sum, he started with Segura, Nicasio, and Pazos, and the Mariners ended up with Crawford, Then, and Campbell, along with some financial saving both in the short-and-long-term.

Rays

It was surprising to see the Rays move Jake Bauers at the time of this deal, but they’re no stranger to dealing from a young core. The Rays picked up Sulser and Diaz for Bauers in this trade, while also sending $5MM to the Mariners. Considering Sulser was eventually lost on waivers to the Orioles (though he did give them 7 scoreless innings in 2019), the move essentially amounts to the Rays paying $5MM to swap in Diaz for Bauers. At the time of the deal, Bauers was seen as an up-and-comer, while Diaz was a little-known 27-year-old utility player with little-to-no boom in his boomstick. As has often been the case of late with Rays’ trades, at a cursory glance, the Rays were trading away controllable youth for a role player.

But where the Rays are concerned, it’s often worth delving a little further. Diaz quickly became known for his above-average exit velocities. And while Diaz was a little older and without the prospect pedigree of Bauers, he came with similar team control, more versatility given his ability to line up at the hot corner, and his biceps have a cult following all their own.

Injuries unfortunately limited Diaz’s production in 2019, but when he was on the field, he was dynamite. While posting a line of .267/.340/.476 across 79 games, Diaz was coming into his own as a hitter with a 116 wRC+. Diaz’s minor league career to this point was a testament to his ability to get on base, limit strikeouts, and make hard contact, but a groundball-heavy approach limited his power.

But it was a different story in Tampa. Diaz produced a career-best .208 ISO to go with a 91.7 mph exit velocity that put him in the top 8% of the league, per Statcast. His hard-hit percentage continues to be well above average, and a small improvement in launch angle and a large jump in barrels led to Diaz smashing 14 home runs in 79 games after hitting just 1 in 88 big league games with the Indians.

Not only that, but Diaz returned from the injured list in time for the playoffs, leading off the wild card game with a solo shot off Sean Manaea. Diaz went deep his second time up as well, at which point the Rays had more than enough to get past the A’s. It was a monster performance from Diaz in the biggest game of the year up to that point. (Things didn’t go quite so well for Diaz in Houston, as he went 0 for 9 with four strikeouts in the ALDS.) The Rays have to feel pretty good about where they stand with Diaz moving forward, as he should continue to be a cheap source of offense for the next couple of seasons.

For that matter, all three teams have to feel pretty good about this deal, as they each accomplished their goal. If Bauers has a better showing in 2020 and the Mariners’ prospects come to fruition, there will ultimately be very little not to like about this three-way deal. Include the Orioles for nabbing Sulser and the Yankees for getting a half a season of Encarnacion, and it could be argued that five teams actually came away winners from this three-way swap of first baseman.

The Rays Left An Asset Unprotected And A Division Rival Noticed

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It’s no secret that the Baltimore Orioles need pitching. While GM Mike Elias and company work on building a development pipeline, the O’s are spending a lot of time scouring other organizations for excess talent to skim off the top. 

Take 30-year-old right-hander Cole Sulser. Baltimore’s waiver claim in early October doesn’t jump out as an impact move, but there’s potential beneath the surface for Sulser and the birds. Before digging into Sulser’s prospects, let’s cover the backstory. 

In December of 2018, the Indians, Mariners, and Rays engaged in a three-way deal that shuffled around first baseman candidates. In this rare three-way challenge trade, each team came away with a major-league first baseman. The Rays chose Yandy Diaz, the Mariners Edwin Encarnacion, and the Indians actually snagged two first basemen in the deal: Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana. Tagging along, Sulser went from the Indians to the Rays, for whom he made 7 scoreless appearances last season. But the Rays are no longer in line to be the beneficiaries of a potential Sulser breakout. 

Granted, it’s suspect that the Indians and Rays – two organizations with strong reputations for identifying and developing pitching – both passed up on the opportunity to roster Sulser. Sulser isn’t locked into a roster spot with the Orioles either, but he should have an easier time carving out a role with the pitching-needy Orioles than he did with either of his previous organizations. The short season very well may expand rosters, too, giving Sulser a greater opportunity to toe the rubber in Baltimore. 

So where does the optimism for Sulser come from? Last year Sulser made 49 appearances (4 starts), spanning a robust 66 innings with a 3.29 ERA. His peripherals look good with a 12.1 K/9 to 3.3 BB/9. He put together similar numbers the year prior while in the Indians system (3.86 ERA over 60 ⅔ innings with 14.1 K/9 to 2.5 BB/9). Those numbers were helped by including a 9-inning scoreless stint in Double-A, without which a 4.53 ERA in Triple-A doesn’t look quite as impressive. 

It is, however, a positive sign to see Sulser improve year-over-year when repeating the level. The Dartmouth grad doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he’s made himself into a double-digit strikeout-per-nine guy over the last couple of seasons. Sulser could yet turn himself into a late-blooming bullpen piece. He’s probably not Nick Anderson, but there’s value to unearth from an arm like Sulser. Breakouts for players on the wrong side of thirty aren’t exactly commonplace, of course, but late bloomers often emerge in the bullpen.  Sulser doesn’t have to become the next Kirby Yates to add value to the O’s organization. With 5 appearances in spring training with a 1.53 ERA and 8 strikeouts in 4 ⅔ innings, he was off to a good start. 

The Orioles may not have a lot of crucial innings to lockdown, but if they can help Sulser establish himself as a reliable arm, he could become the type of cost-controlled asset teams in contention ask after. For the Orioles these days, that’s more-or-less the goal. 

Wilmer Flores Changes Representation

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Infielder Wilmer Flores has new representation. Flores, 28, will now be repped by Cesar Suarez of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Flores’ change in representation will soon be reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database. Flores had previously been repped by the McNamara Baseball Group.

Suarez is a former player himself, though he never reached the majors after signing with the Yankees as a 16-year-old, per his bio on the BHS Council’s website. He hails from Flores’ native Venezuela, as do other notable Suarez clients such as Rougned Odor and Salvador Perez. Heyman did not mention any specific impetus behind Flores’ decision to make a change at this time.

Flores, 28, is coming off a one-and-done year in Arizona. The utility infielder made the most of his time in the desert. After signing a one-year, $4.25MM guaranteed deal with the Diamondbacks, he appeared in 89 games, slashing a robust .314/.361/.487, good for a career-best 120 wRC+. Flores also missed more than a month of playing time after a foot contusion in late May pushed him to the injured list. Arizona declined a $6MM player option, making him a free agent for a $500K buyout instead.

When he was on the field, Flores performed. If you’re looking to poke holes in Flores’ 2019 output, a .332 BABIP is a good place to start, but Flores has long been a strong offensive contributor, so it’s not totally a smoke show. Still, career norms of a .268 BA and .277 BABIP point to some regression. Statcast credits Flores’ 2019 with a .329 xwOBA (league average is .318 xwOBA).

As for his new agent, there’s no immediate contractual work pending after Flores signed a two-year deal with the Giants this offseason. He made back the $6MM he was in line for in Arizona, only it’s spread out across two seasons. Flores will make $3MM in each of 2020 and 2021, while the Giants hold a $3.5MM option for 2022. If Flores can flourish in San Francisco, he should have the opportunity to net another major league contract either before his age-30 or age-31 season.

The Giants haven’t been all that active in free agency recently, so their signing of Flores was notable, especially since there’s not an obvious place to put the contact-oriented infielder. Veterans like Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford, and Brandon Belt are entrenched around the infield on big-money deals that run concurrently to Flores’. There should be at-bats for Flores at second base, but he’s not alone there either, as Mauricio Dubon offers the Giants a higher ceiling with more team control as a pre-arb player, and Donovan Solano is coming off a mini-breakout of his own (.330/.360/.456 in 81 games last year). The presence of local hero Pablo Sandoval also muddies the waters for Flores – if Kung Pu Panda ends up making the team.

The potential for a Universal DH should give Flores some hope for grabbing a few extra PAs, but the Giants are actually pretty set on that front after bringing back the hugely popular Hunter Pence. Fans will be happy to see Pence’s name back on the lineup card, but even from a baseball standpoint, Pence is coming off a year when he unexpectedly put together an All-Star campaign at age-36. Pence finished the year hitting .297/.358/.552 with 18 home runs in 83 games as the Rangers’ DH. Like Flores, Pence also missed a fair amount of time due to injury. Given the ages of Longoria (34), Pence (37), Crawford (33), Belt (32), Sandoval (33) and even Solano (32), Flores is actually one of the young guys in the infield mix, despite his status as a 7-year MLB veteran. It’s not obvious where his playing time will come from, but there are many paths that lead to Flores seeing time as a regular infielder.

Coronavirus Notes: Upcoming Negotiations, Furloughs, Angels, Brewers, KBO

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It’s make-or-break time for MLB and the MLBPA on forging a path to baseball in 2020. With some significant negotiations looming this week, ESPN’s Jeff Passan runs through some of the biggest questions facing the league. The battle between players and owners is rife with potential roadblocks, and it’s not just the conditions of 2020 that are at stake. With the CBA renegotiation still in the (what-now-feels-like distant) future, both sides are aware of the impact any concession can make to the bigger picture. The way this week’s negotiations are handled could reveal the potential the two sides have of forging an effective working relationship moving forward. One would think now would be an ideal time for opposing sides to come together, and yet it’s just not as simple as that when billions of dollars are at stake. There are countless people and opinions to take into account on both sides of the aisle. While we await a loaded week of negotiations, let’s check in on how teams are handling their non-player-and-coach employees…

  • Teams are taking a variety of approaches when it comes to their employees in the wake of COVID-19, but the Angels have come under fire for taking a more drastic approach than most, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The Angels will be furloughing employees from nearly every department, including, in the words of Rosenthal, “weakening its amateur scouting department heading into the draft.” The optics aren’t great here for the large-market Angels, especially when clubs like the Brewers, Giants, and Phillies have made commitments to retaining their staff at least through October. The Blue Jays also recently made the decision to keep employees’ on their full-time salaries through October 1, tweets John Lott, a frequent contributor to The Athletic. The Brewers have been the most aggressively pro-employee, per Rosenthal, committing to keeping their staff on through the entirety of the baseball season. The pro-employee approach is laudable, though not necessarily all that shocking coming out of Milwaukee. The Brewers have increasingly stepped into the spotlight in recent years as a progressive organization, from the supportive atmosphere provided players to making special efforts to get Milwaukee residents in to see games to their very team-building approach. The Angels, meanwhile, might find tough sledding ahead when it comes to signing undrafted amateur players. Without their typical scouting infrastructure in place, those relationships will be harder to build in an open market, and it’s possible the decisions being made by ownership today will have far-reaching consequences for the organization’s future.
  • The Rays, meanwhile, are readying to return to the field. Camp will re-open on Monday for a small collection of 15 to 20 players, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Those players involved will still be keeping a separation of six feet from other players, and workouts will be limited. Still, it’s a positive sign to see players start to congregate again around a playing field. It’s also, no doubt, a risky proposition, but so long as safety precautions are followed and we don’t see a breakout of cases among these players, these workouts could be a harbinger of more baseball to come.
  • Baseball is back already in some places of the world, of course. The KBO is about 17 games into their 2020 season, and they’re about to get a lot more popular. A new deal was announced for ESPN to become the English-language home of KBO games set to broadcast around the world, per ESPN’s Santa Brito. Play-by-play announcers will continue to provide commentary while social distancing. ESPN will soon be broadcasting KBO games “throughout Canada, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean (including the Dominican Republic), Europe, Middle East, Africa, and parts of Asia.”

Braves Have All The Pieces To Build A Solid DH

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With the DH likely headed to the National League in 2020, the Braves may have a few more at-bats to spread around. As a team, the Braves finished 2019 with a 102 wRC+, the 4th-highest mark in the National League, though they managed to turn that production into 855 runs, fewer than only the Nationals and Dodgers. To repeat at those levels, Atlanta has the difficult task of replacing the production from Bringer of Rain Josh Donaldson, who joined the Twins after putting up 37 bombs, 96 runs, 94 RBIs, and an all-around stellar 6.0 rWAR season in 2019. A regular DH should help.

Atlanta boasts a good deal of depth to utilize in a potential designated hitter role. For starters, there’s the question of whether Johan Camargo becomes a four-down back at third base. Austin Riley may eventually take over the hot corner, but if he doesn’t, there are probably some DH at-bats to go his way. Riley was slated to spend some time at Triple-A, but if there is no Triple-A, the Braves may just as soon bring his light-tower power to the big-league level. Riley definitely struggled closing out his rookie year, but power (.471 SLG and .245 ISO) isn’t the problem. Riley needs to close the gap on his 5.4% BB% and 36.4 K%, but given his youth and potential, he’s probably the guy the Braves want to claim the DH spot (if he doesn’t claim third base outright).

If Riley doesn’t improve the other aspects of his game, then he’s essentially Adam Duvall, another candidate for DH at-bats. Duvall, 31, has a career .229 ISO and .461 SLG at the big league level, numbers that could land him in the middle of the order if it weren’t for other drawbacks to his game. In 130 plate appearances last season, Duvall put together a solid 121 wRC+ showing by hitting .267/.315/.567. That output was bolstered by an absurd .300 ISO. He also had some good luck, as his .306 BABIP was a fair bit higher than his career mark of .271. Duvall could certainly see some time at DH, especially if they want to save Riley for a more stable playing environment, but he has gone just 1 for 3 in posting a wRC+ over 100 when given more than 400 plate appearances. In a short season, however, Duvall has the type of short-burst approach that could perform.

The safer option is to use the DH to rest their four-man outfield of Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, Marcell Ozuna, and Nick Markakis. Acuna will be in there every day, but he can move around the outfield and would probably benefit from a DHing day every now and again. Ozuna and Markakis complement each other perfectly in some ways, with Ozuna the right-handed power bat and Markakis the lefty on-base option, and they can both handle themselves in the field. There’s no reason both shouldn’t be in the lineup, however, especially if Inciarte is healthy enough to spend the better part of most weeks manning centerfield. Inciarte, 29, played just 65 games last season, but he’s a true difference-maker with the glove when healthy (21 OAA in 2018, 20 OAA in 2017). Assuming health, all four of Acuna, Inciarte, Ozuna, and Markakis should find their names on the lineup card most days.

With Acuna taking his spot in right, Markakis might be the guy who gets the most at-bats as the ostensible extra bat. But when southpaws take the hill, the Braves can rest some combination of Markakis/Inciarte while getting Duvall or Riley some run. Both mashed lefties in 2019.  Say they go with a straight left-right platoon: Markakis hit .298/.371/.446 vs. righties in 2019, and Duvall (small sample alert) hit .333/.386/.744 vs lefties. Even take Duvall’s career splits versus lefties (.240/.318/.473), and a leveraged platoon of Markakis and Duvall makes for a pretty potent designated hitter.

This post continues a recent series from MLBTR looking at designated hitters options for each team in the National League. Thus far we’ve covered the Cardinals, Reds, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Nationals, as well as the remaining free agent options.

MLB Releases Medical Protocols Proposal To Players

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Major League Baseball has provided the MLBPA with a 67-page document with proposed protocols for returning to play, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich. The document covers testing, gameplay conditions, spring training rules, intake processes, and more, an outline of which is laid out by Rosenthal and Drellich in their piece.

The “operations manual” is an important step in launching a 2020 baseball season. Obviously, the Players’ Union still must approve, the logistics for medical and auxiliary staff must be handled, facilities must be prepared, and there remains any number of blockades that might derail a return to play. Still, it appears as if Major League Baseball has done the legwork to answer many of the operational questions facing the league’s return to action.

A central topic covered in these pages appears to be continued social distancing for players. It certainly makes for an interesting “team” experience, with communal dining and any socializing beyond family members discouraged (but not, it seems, disallowed). Masks may be utilized everywhere except on the field, and players will do their best to maintain 6 feet of distance even in the dugouts, which the article explains, could extend into the stands, should the extra space be necessary. Players have begun to display their personalities with expressive shows of emotion and team celebrations more and more so in recent years (“let the kids play”), and it will certainly be interesting to see how players can continue to be themselves and form team bonds/personalities in such a restrictive social environment.

The most pertinent issues here relate to player testing, of which many protocols have been laid out, including the process for bringing players into spring training, traveling with the team, and what happens if a player does test positive for COVID-19. The league has also outlined ways to limit potential exposure and spread. The minutiae are also attended to here, with items like “Communal water and sports drink coolers/jugs are prohibited” and “Dugout phones will be disinfected after each use”. Spring Training facilities, meanwhile, will limit teams to 50 players, per Rosenthal and Drellich. It’s important to remember, too, that there is sure to be much more detail in the full document. Presumably, all the pertinent details will be released to the public once an official agreement has been reached between the league and players.

All in all, there’s a great deal of coverage here and it’s well worth reading Rosenthall and Drellich’s piece in full. As we continue to ponder the possibility of if baseball can resume in 2020, this document attempts to cover much of the territory for how play might resume. The next step will be seeing how the Players’ Union reacts to it.

Quick Hits: Latest On The Impact Of Coronavirus Around The Game

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As players and owners work on negotiating a financial accord to allow for the start of play, opinions have trickled in from all reaches of the baseball-sphere with personal stances about how best to reboot gameplay. After Blake Snell set off a bit of a firestorm with his concerns about returning to the field, many players have chimed in to support the lefty hurler. Obviously, many players are justifiably concerned about what gameplay would mean for their safety and the safety of their families. No one understands this as much as Yoan Moncada, whose 1-year-old daughter was recently hospitalized. She’s doing better now, and Moncada, despite the scare, is ready to return to play should that become a possibility, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Van Schouwen provides a quote from Moncada, who said, “[My family is] concerned, as everybody is. But if the conditions are safe, they’re going to be good with it. But it is a concern no matter what.” Obviously, everyone has been affected in some form or fashion by this pandemic, and players face difficult personal decisions ahead before returning to play. Of course, COVID-19 has hurt not just the players and owners…

  • While most of the focus has remained on the league’s attempts to return to the playing field, the consequences of the shutdown are hitting home for many professionals in the field. The Reds, Rays, and Marlins have announced furloughs that are to begin in June, and the latest from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) has the Angels among the teams considering the same. Officially, the Angels are still on the fence. It is nonetheless an unfortunate and troubling development for those involved. Hopefully, some of the larger market franchises will be better equipped to weather the storm for their employees.
  • Beyond the question of will-they-or-won’t-they play a 2020 season, there are ancillary questions that need answering in the event of a shortened 2020 season. Joel Sherman of the New York Post runs through a whole host of those issues that will require answers at some point. Among Sherman’s inquiries are topics ranging from a potential trade deadline to drug testing to the practical concerns of the games themselves. Baseball is in a better position than heavy-contact sports like basketball and football, but the game still cannot be played with players keeping a 6-foot distance from one another. It helps that the primary action takes place between a batter and pitcher standing 60 feet and 6 inches apart, but there is plenty of potential for in-game contact, as well as the mere fact of shuffling 26-man rosters from stadium to stadium together.
  • The Red Sox will be able to resume play at Fenway Park this season according to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh. There are, of course, a number of conditions to meet before play resumes at Fenway. For instance, fans will not be allowed in attendance, per Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. There will also be safety measures that the city of Boston must sign off on before play resumes. Still, it may give players a welcome sense of familiarity to be able to play in their home ballparks, even without fans in the seats. The number of teams that will be able to resume play in their home parks remains up in the air for now, though that does seem to be the goal for most teams.

Universal DH Would Allow Nationals To Reboot Their World Series Approach

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With the DH likely headed to the National League, at least for 2020, we’re going over each NL roster to find their best and most likely candidates to reap the rewards of the extra at-bats. We’ve already looked at the Cardinals and Reds from the Central, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks out West, as well as some free agent options still available. Let’s dip our toes into the NL East, and what better place to start than with the defending World Series champs: the Washington Nationals.

If there’s a team ready for post-coronavirus baseball, it’s the Nats. Last we saw of the Nationals, they were stomping the Astros on Houston’s turf en route to becoming the first team in history to win a World Series with four road wins. The Nats floundered with NL rules, scoring one run per game in front of their home crowd – but with Howie Kendrick at designated hitter, Dave Martinez’s club cannot be beat. They’ve proven they can win with their fans watching from home and their pitchers keeping a safe distance from the batters’ box.

Obviously, even the seven most high-pressure games in baseball is a poor stand-in for large sample data, and those games alone don’t suggest much of anything at all about how the Nats will actually transition to the universal DH. That said, Howie Kendrick remains their likeliest DH candidate, and that bodes well for Washington’s offense. Being able to let Kendrick DH most days should loosen Martinez’s strickly regimented rest schedule for his 36-year-old utility slugger. Given the discipline Martinez showed in limiting a healthy Kendrick to 70 starts last season – even as he put up a .344/.395/.572 line – it’s unlikely Kendrick suits up on an everyday basis. But two years removed from Achilles surgery in a shortened season with a DH: that might be the recipe for an everyday Howie Kendrick.

There could do a flip side to a shortened season, however, such as fewer rest days or stacked doubleheaders, so the Nats will need other options beyond Kendrick. Luckily, Washington has other options on the roster beyond its NLCS MVP, and if they want to station Kendrick in the field a time or two a week, he can capably man first, second, or even third.

In terms of alternative, Eric Thames should be liberally deployed against right-handers. Thames joins the roster in place of Matt Adams, who shouldered much of the first-base burden against tough righties last season. Beyond serving as injury insurance for Adam Eaton in right, that’s the role Thames should step into in Washington. With an extra bat in the lineup, the former KBO star ought to find himself in the lineup against right-handers most days, whether at first base, right field, or DH. Coming off a 25-homer season in which he slugged .529 against righties, he’s a weapon in the right spot.

As in 2019, the Nats will play a three-man game at first base, with no less than Mr. National himself taking up that third slot. Ryan Zimmerman should slot in for Thames or Kendrick on occasion against righties, but expect to find him in the lineup while Thames comes off the bench against lefties. Zim’s numbers last season could be construed as a vet nearing his last legs (.257/.314/.415), but the problem wasn’t his legs: it was his feet. Plantar fasciitis slowed Zimmerman for most of the season, but he came up with some big hits in the postseason, and the extra time to rest and recuperate this offseason should benefit the long-time National

The final consideration for the Nats’ DH spot is this: if top prospect Carter Kieboom starts the season in the minors, Asdrubal Cabrera will man third base.  But if the Nats deem Kieboom ready from the jump, then Cabrera could cycle through the DH role a bit as well. Cabrera was excellent after joining the Nats in 2019, finishing the year with a total line of .260/.342/.441 with 18 home runs and 91 driven in. For what it’s worth, Cabrera reached base at a higher rate while batting right-handed last year (.357 OBP to .337 OBP), but he slugged better while hitting from the left side (.452 SLG to .410 SLG).

If indeed the National League plays with a DH this season, Dave Martinez will juggle the role as he did with his veterans’ playing time in 2019. With the Kendrick/Thames/Zimmerman triumvirate time-sharing at-bats between first base and DH, the Nats may need the extra oomph from having two of the three in the lineup up every day to help offset the loss of Anthony Rendon. If nothing else, the Nats proved in the World Series they could thrive living the American League lifestyle. Soon, they may soon get the chance to prove it for a full (shortened) season.

The Pitcher To Receive The Most Extra Strikes In 2019 Was…

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In a recent bout of strike zone curiosity, I started looking into umpire accuracy metrics to try to visualize the baseball world at our doorstep: a world in which balls and strikes are called by robot umpires. While referring to an electronic strike zone as “robot umpires” no doubt adds an unnecessary measure of Asimovian flourish, the reality of baseball’s future is bearing down on us. Electronic strike zones are coming to baseball.

Then again, COVID-19 threw a wrench into all pockets of predicting baseball’s future, and there’s no longer any certainty in, well, just about anything. So there will be no more crystal ball voyeurism from me today, no more speculation, only a cold, hard look at the past.

Of course, the issue of umpire accuracy is hardly reserved for the future. Until electronic strike zones are implemented, the human models making the calls behind the plate remain incapable of ridding themselves entirely of human error – try as they might. Sometimes a ball misses the plate, and they call it a strike. Sometimes it crosses the dish, and the arm stays at the umpire’s side. The question for today is this: which pitcher got the most extra strikes in 2019?

With my previous look into Statcast pitch data, I looked for clusters of pitchers that would illuminate certain things about how umpires called balls and strikes. Today is about passing along some of the trivia. Statcast data, after all, holds a ton of information, including whether or not each ball or strike was correctly called. Using machine learning, we can pretty cleanly find those pitchers who benefited the most from gifted strikes, as well as those who were hurt the most by stolen strikes.

And that brings us to Adam Warren of the San Diego Padres (frequently and presently a member of the New York Yankees). Of the pitchers who threw as many as 200 pitches in the majors in 2019, it wasn’t close: Warren benefited more than any other pitcher in 2019 from umpires gifting extra strikes.

To be perfectly clear, a gifted strike here is a pitch that lands outside the strike zone that the umpire calls a strike. This alone does not make Warren the luckiest pitcher in baseball. Nor does it make him the umpires’ favorite (though it probably gets him a look). In a vacuum, that Warren led the league in percentage of called strikes that were gifted means only this: no pitcher had a higher percentage of their called strikes come from pitches that missed the zone.

This was important for Warren because, even with the added help, only 31.4% of his pitches landed in the zone (league average was 39.4%). And while batters swung and missed at a relatively average rate when Warren was throwing strikes, batter O-Contract% – the percentage of times a batter makes contact when swinging at a ball outside the zone – was just 61.9%, much lower than the 67.3% average. So the more Warren got batters to chase, the more effective he became (surprise, surprise). Still, he only registered 7.85 K/9 versus 3.77 BB/9.

For context, MLB pitchers – on average – had ~16% of their called strikes come on pitches outside the zone. Warren, by contrast, received a gifted strike on almost 42% of his strike calls. This was an extreme outlier. The second-place finisher for highest percentage of gifted strikes was Michel Baez at ~30% – interestingly, also of the Padres (and the conspiracy is on!). Not for nothing, but Warren also fits the profile of the type of pitcher more prone to getting extra calls. He averaged just 86.4 mph this season (fastball clocking at 91.4 mph), he’s right-handed, and both his fastball and curve register in the bottom quartile for spin rate.

If he were a starter, he’d fit the mold exactly. Of course, sample size is likely a culprit here in Warren’s numbers being so far outside the norm. Warren wasn’t exactly a spotlight pitcher in 2019. He threw 555 pitches for the Padres across 25 games, 28 2/3 innings. He ended the year 4-1 with a 5.34 ERA/6.91 FIP making his season worth -0.2 bWAR/-0.8 fWAR. This is not to say he will be a total disaster if he suits up for the Yankees sometime this season, nor is it to say he’ll receive the same measure of umpire error if he does. Though Warren has been received favorably by umpires in the past, his overall average percentage of gifted strikes over the past 5 seasons is just under 28%. That still puts him two standard deviations above the mean, but nowhere near the outlier of his 2019.

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