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Latest On Teams With Positive Coronavirus Tests

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After multiple members of the Texas Rangers organization tested positive for COVID-19, some employees told ESPN that they “fear for their health and hope the organization will allow employees to work from home after feeling pressure to come into the office,” per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. That’s a troubling revelation coming out of Texas, and a reminder of the power that employers yield over their workers during this difficult time. The Rangers, of course, will have the opportunity to reassess their work-from-home policies in light of these positive tests – and hopefully do so. Given unemployment rates around the country, those with highly-coveted positions within sports franchises are in a difficult position should they disagree with their employers in terms of readiness to return to work. None of the Rangers’ positive tests belonged to players, coaches, or baseball personnel, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Teams generally face less public scrutiny with how they handle non-baseball-personnel staff, so let’s see how a couple other teams are handling confirmed positive tests…

  • The Brewers are newly among those clubs with positive COVID-19 tests within the organization, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Many of those who tested positive were asymptomatic, but apparently not all of them. It’s unclear at this time if those positive tests were from staff members or players. Regardless, the Brewers are forging ahead, set to bring a group of 45 players to compete for the eventual 30-man regular-season roster. The rest of the 60-man roster will train at the team’s Class A facility in Appleton, Wisconsin. Players will face intake testing for COVID-19 as they arrive at team facilities.
  • The Indians have had players test positive from their homes, the team facility in Arizona, and from the Dominican Republic, per The Athletic’s Zack Meisel. Team President Chris Antonetti says that the cases have been isolated and there have not been any large-scale breakouts. Interestingly, some staff members have decided to sit out the season, though no players within the organization have as of yet decided to abstain from play. Clearly, the concerns are real across the league, and it’s up to teams to work with their staff and players to make sure everyone feels safe heading into this truncated season. The players face the most visibility, but there are obviously many more employees from every team who will face increased risk in the coming months now that baseball is coming back.

Quick Hits: Spring Training Sites, James Loney, Alex Cora

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Given the spike of coronavirus cases in Florida and Arizona, the Mets and Yankees are both planning on moving their spring facilities to New York for the time being, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. Any potential 2020 season is likely to be heavily dependent upon regional play, so it makes a certain amount of sense for both New York franchises to get settled into their home state (especially considering the rash of breakouts that caused all 30 teams to shut down their training facilities for the time being). The Mets and Yankees might not be the only clubs making this move, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that all MLB clubs will be moving their spring training to their home cities. Nightengale does add the caveat that the Blue Jays may stay in Florida for the time being, and there were as many as five teams on Friday with thoughts of staying in Florida (Twitter links).

Let’s check in on other news from around the game…

  • Former Dodgers first baseman James Loney has been hired by the GEM Agency in an advisory role, tweets Robert Murray. GEM launched in October 2019 based out of Dallas, Texas. They rep current big leaguers Justin Turner, Tommy Pham, and Roberto Osuna – which are all tracked in MLBTR’s Agency Database. Loney played 11 seasons in the big leagues, with his most productive years coming with the Dodgers from 2006 to 2012. He was eventually traded to the Boston Red Sox in the Dodgers’ monster deal for Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Nick Punto. Loney would play just half a season in Boston before going on to post a pair of productive years with the Rays. He finished his playing career in 2016 as a 32-year-old with the New York Mets. For his career, the southpaw first baseman put up a line of .284/.336/.410 with 108 home runs in 5,487 plate appearances.
  • Alex Cora will be eligible to return to Major League Baseball in 2021, and the former Red Sox skipper would love to return to the managing ranks, Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe writes. How soon there will be interest in Cora as a manager remains to be seen given his role in the investigations into both the Astros and Red Sox sign-stealing allegations. Still, he has a tremendous track record in his short time as the Red Sox manager. Like many of us, Cora remains in wait-and-see mode for the time being. Said Cora, “If this was a regular time and they were playing games, I would say yes [to managing in 2021]. I would love to be back in 2021 in some capacity. I love managing at the big league level.  But right now, I’m still kind of like putting my game plan together. It’s not where I want it to be. But obviously with everything that’s going on, with my daughter going into her senior year of high school, we as a family have to see what we want to do.”

The Slow Decline Of A Former Top-3 Pick

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With the third overall pick in the 2014 draft, the Chicago White Sox selected Carlos Rodon out of North Carolina State. Rodon was a consideration for the top overall pick in the draft, but the Astros and Marlins each went with a high school arm in Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek. As the top college arm in the draft, Rodon came with high expectations and a presupposed shorter timetable for reaching the majors.

Sure enough, it didn’t take Rodon long to reach the majors. He was the second-fastest from the draft class to make his debut, trailing only Brandon Finnegan of the Royals (debuted in September of 2014). Rodon made his debut in 2015, along with other top-10 draft picks from 2014 like Kyle Schwarber of the Cubs, Aaron Nola of the Phillies, and Michael Conforto of the Mets. Rodon came out of the gate hot, going 9-6 in 23 starts with a 3.75 ERA/3.87 FIP.

Rodon has now played parts of five professional seasons with the White Sox, but he has yet to put together a complete campaign. All in all, he’s largely been a disappointment. For his career, he’s 29-31 with a 4.08 ERA/4.25 ERA with 8.8 K/9 versus 3.9 BB/9 across 529 innings. Rodon’s numbers fit comfortably at the back end of a rotation, but the White Sox hoped for much more out of Rodon.

Rodon’s track record cannot be separated from his injury history. A sprained wrist in 2016, biceps bursitis in 2017, shoulder inflammation when he returned in 2017 that bled into the 2018 season, and then Tommy John surgery that ended his 2019 season after just 7 starts. It’s been a rough road since making his debut.

Entering 2020, the 27-year-old Rodon is a legitimate afterthought. He’s lost velocity over the years, with his four-seamer peaking early in his career with a 94.2 mph average and dropping to 91.4 mph over his seven starts of 2019. He’s gone away from the sinker that was his trademark early on, relying more and more on a fastball-slider mix that profiles more like the repertoire of a late-inning reliever. As he returns from Tommy John surgery, it’s hard to know what kind of pitcher Rodon will be.

Because of the delay to the 2020 season, however, he will be healthy and ready to go when/if the seasons starts, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. That’s good news for Rodon and the White Sox, though it’s unclear if there’s room for Rodon in the rotation. Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel are locked into the first two spots in the rotation. Gio Gonzalez was given a $5MM contract to do what Rodon hasn’t been able to: provide innings. For the other two rotation spots, Rodon will have to beat out a pair of young arms in Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease.

Lopez, 26, has taken his turn every fifth day for the last two seasons in Chicago, but the results haven’t been tremendous (4.64 ERA/4.83 FIP) – and he’s just a year younger than Rodon. Cease, 24, made his debut last year and struggled, but he remains a promising, hard-throwing righty. They’re slotted into the rotation for now, but there’s never been more uncertainty heading into a season than we face in 2020. Rodon could very well push for a rotation slot, but his future is no longer guaranteed. Michael Kopech could also join the fray, as Van Schouwen notes that the former Red Sox farmhand should be recovered from his own Tommy John surgery.

The fact is, the rotation is the biggest question mark of the White Sox roster heading into 2020 – despite the high-ceiling potential therein. Given the bizarre circumstances of the current climate, the bigger question is how much rope Chicago will give their young arms. With a shortened season and expanded playoffs, the White Sox have increased expectations. Fans will expect the Southsiders to join the crowded playoff field. To that end, the early games will matter like never before. A guy returning from injury like Rodon won’t have the leeway to round himself into shape. What’s worse, he might not have minor league games to provide that extra runway either.

If Rodon can come back as effective as pre-surgery, he won’t be the ace that some imagined, but he can hang in a rotation. Whether he’ll get that opportunity in Chicago is unclear. Injuries take their toll, and Rodon has been through the wringer. Whether through side sessions or spring training 2.0, Rodon will have to prove he’s ready to contribute.

If the season takes place, Rodon will have just one more season of arbitration eligibility before reaching free agency, and the White Sox will have to decide whether it’s worth giving him a raise on the $4.45MM (full-scale rate) he’s due in 2020. Rodon is still young enough to turn things around in Chicago, but the injuries are piling up, and time is running out.

Latest On Training Facilities, Health Concerns, Potential Rule Changes

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Decisions are looming for MLB and the MLBPA regarding a potential 2020 season. The distribution of revenue, salary amounts for players, and the length of the season have been the most publicly controversial topics, but there is a myriad of other negotiating points that could change the game in 2020.

For starters, the league and players are reportedly agreed on changing the format of extra-inning games for the 2020 season. They would adopt the minor league rules that received a trial starting in 2018, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. In extras, each team would start with a runner on second base (the batter who made the last out in the previous inning). This should press the action and help avoid ties taking games deep into the night. That runner would count as an unearned run for the pitcher, going down in the scorebooks as if the batter reached on an error. Regardless of whether or not they decide to allow for ties, rules will revert to traditional extra-inning rules for the start of the postseason.

Even bigger than revenue sharing or rule changes, however, are the health conditions facing players. Yesterday represented a step back as news broke of players at multiple MLB facilities with confirmed COVID-19 exposure (stories from Angels, Phillies, Blue Jays, Astros, and Giants).

This underscores a concern for players, who are seeking additional protections for players. It’s been agreed upon that high-risk players can elect to skip the 2020 season with full pay and service time, but the players’ union are looking to get those protections extended to players with high-risk family members as well, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Any player can choose to opt-out of the season, but as of right now, unless a player qualifies as high risk, they would forfeit their right to accrue service time or collect a paycheck.

For now, all thirty teams have shut down their training facilities for cleaning, per Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. Given the cases of coronavirus that were revealed yesterday (including 11 NHL players), it’s certainly the prudent call to shut down the facilities to reboot (and disinfect). Clearly, the negotiations between the league and players become moot if they can’t establish a clean and safe environment.

The sport has taken a lot of heat for the contentious nature of the debate between owners and players, but if owners can’t guarantee the safety of players, and if players can’t do their part to stay as safe as possible, a lot of time and money will have been wasted trying to get the game back on track.

Amateur Draft Signings: 6/13/20

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Let’s kick off this Saturday morning by checking in on some of the latest post-draft signings from around the league. We’ll update this post periodically throughout the day as more news trickles in…

Latest Signings

  • Cardinals fourth-rounder Ian Bedell will sign with the team, the right-hander told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers.  Terms of the agreement weren’t revealed, though the 122nd overall selection has a $469K slot value.  “I would have gone back to school if the signing bonus wasn’t there, but they made a good offer, and I couldn’t be happier,” said Bedell, who grew up as a Cards fan.  Draft pundits had a pretty wide range of opinions on Bedell’s draft stock (The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him as the 58th-best prospect in the draft class, Fangraphs 85th, MLB Pipeline 88th, and Baseball America 105th), though those rankings still represent somewhat of a steal for the Cardinals with the 122nd pick.  Bedell drew praise for his command and control of his pitches rather than his pure arsenal, and he pitched very well in the Cape Cod League last summer.

Earlier Today

  • The Phillies and third-rounder Casey Martin have reached an agreement, Martin told The Athletic’s Matt Gelb (subscription required).  The 87th overall pick has a $689.3K slot price attached, and while Martin didn’t specify the terms of his contract, the Arkansas shortstop said the deal was a “fair amount for where I was picked and for my value.”  Martin didn’t play well before the 2020 college season came to an abrupt end, which may explain why he fell to the third round despite late-first/early-second round grades from prospect analysts (MLB Pipeline ranked Martin as the 30th-best prospect available in the draft).  There are questions surrounding Martin’s ability to avoid strikeouts and whether or not he could remain at shortstop in the long term, though he carries a lot of hitting potential and outstanding 70-grade speed.
  • The Astros have agreements in place with a couple of their draft picks from this week’s abbreviated MLB draft. Fourth-round selection Zach Daniels has an agreement in place, though the terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros also came to terms with shortstop Shay Whitcomb from UC San Diego, who was the 160th and final pick of this draft (Mark Berman of KRIV Fox 26 had the report).  Though Whitcomb was the final player chosen, the slot value of that pick is still $324.1K, a significant bump from what those undrafted players can command. Players who went undrafted can sign with any team of their choosing, but only for a maximum payout of $20K. 
  • Orioles fifth-round selection Carter Baumler has plans to sign with Baltimore, per Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Baumler is a 6’2″ right-handed pitcher hailing from Dowling Catholic High School in Iowa. The 133rd overall pick of the draft carries a slot value of $422.3K. Baumler’s deal will come in well above slot at $1.5MM, tweets Mason McRae of Prospects 365 (confirmed by Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register). As Birch writes in a full piece, Baumler turned down two other teams before agreeing to sign with the Orioles. Had he not received an offer to his liking, Baumler was ready to play college ball for Texas Christian.
  • Rangers second-rounder Evan Carter will sign his first professional contract rather than attend Duke University, according to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Carter is a lefty-swinging outfielder out of Elizabethton High School in Tennessee, and was picked by the Rangers with the 50th overall pick in the draft. The financials of his deal have not been disclosed, but the slot amount for the 50th overall selection is $1,469,900.

The Longest Flirtation In Baseball

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For those who love the will-they-won’t-they back-and-forth of a classic rom-com, Major League Baseball has a story for you. The Chicago White Sox and lefty hurler Gio Gonzalez are drawn to each other. There’s no denying the connection. They’re the Ross and Rachel of the MLB (or Jim and Pam, or whatever reference is relevant these days). Though they’ve never stayed together long, these would-be soulmates are on the verge of finally making it work. Should baseball return in 2020, their long-standing flirtation should finally consummate with Gonzalez in black-and-white, taking the hill in front of the Southside faithful.

Gonzalez, 34, has long been a productive pitcher in the bigs, but he hasn’t gotten the respect he deserves of late. Though Gonzalez is aging, he certainly pitched well enough to prove himself a viable rotation candidate. And yet, following the 2018 season, Gonzalez languished on the free-agent market. He eventually accepted a minor league deal with the Yankees, but he never made an appearance for their big-league team. He found his way back to Milwaukee where he went 3-2 with a 3.50 ERA/4.04 FIP across 87 1/3 innings (17 starts). Again, solid numbers for Gonzalez, but again there wasn’t much buzz around him as he returned to free agency.

Fear not, for an old friend came to the rescue. The White Sox signed Gonzalez to a $5MM guarantee just before Christmas with plans of slotting him into the rotation. The White Sox are a team on the rise with a young rotation in need of guaranteed, quality innings. Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel are set to front the rotation with less proven assets like Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease likely to follow. Gonzalez should help the young arms take their time and weather the storm, should there be one.

Regardless of fit, we know the White Sox like Gonzalez. This was, after all, the third time they’d acquired him. The White Sox first drafted Gonzalez 38th overall in the 2004 June Draft. But he didn’t last long in their system, as the Sox traded Gonzalez to the Phillies after the 2005 season (with Aaron Rowand and Daniel Haigwood) for Jim Thome.

Just a year later, Gonzalez found himself headed back to Chicago. The White Sox and Phillies connected on a new deal wherein the Phils acquired Freddy Garcia for Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd. Garcia made just 11 starts for the Phillies before leaving as a free agent after 2007. Floyd found his sea legs in Chicago after struggling to make good on his top draft pick status in Philly. He ended up playing seven seasons with the White Sox, going 63-65 with a 4.22 ERA/4.20 FIP in that time, settling in as a decent rotation piece.

Gonzalez’s second stint with the White Sox lasted barely longer than the first. He did, however, begin to flourish. Upon his return, Gonzalez quickly became a top arm in their system, topping out of as their number one ranked prospect by Baseball America in 2008 (#26 overall in the majors).

Still, they traded him – again – this time to the Oakland Athletics (along with Fautino De Los Santos and Ryan Sweeney) in exchange for Nick Swisher. Swisher was a personality match with the White Sox, a spiritual successor to Rowand and other hard-nosed dirt dogs to play on the grass in Chicago – but he only lasted one season (.219/.332/.410 with 24 home runs).

Gonzalez became the gem of that deal for Oakland, making his debut in 2008 as a 22-year-old. It took Gonzalez a couple seasons to find his footing, but by the end of 2011, Gonzalez was an established pro. He put together back-to-back 200-inning seasons for the A’s, amassing 8.3 rWAR/6.5 fWAR across 2010 and 2011 before Oakland shipped him to Washington.

At this point, Gonzalez was entering his age-26 season with some runway to finally settle in after being traded four times already. Gonzalez became a rotation stalwart for the Nationals from 2012 to 2018, a two-time All-Star, and a 124-game winner.

His best season was his first in Washington. The 26-year-old Gonzalez led the league in wins going 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA/2.82 FIP across 199 1/3 innings. As the Nats’ nominal ace, Gonzalez led them to their first-ever postseason appearance. Of course, this was the season the Nationals famously withheld Stephen Strasburg from the playoffs to ensure his long-term health. An undercurrent of that story, however, was Gonzalez, whose dominance that year made such a bold move possible. Gio started games one and five of the NLDS, pitching well but lasting just five innings in both outings – a common thread for Gonzalez. The Nats went 1-1 in those games but ultimately lost the series to the Cardinals.

Gonzalez never put up another season quite like his 2012, but he nonetheless gave the Nats solid work for 6+ seasons. Regardless, there wasn’t a ton of interest when the Nats shopped him during the 2018 season. Gonzalez was eventually traded to the Brewers, for whom he pitched well in five late-season starts. He even got a pair of postseason starts, though he went just two innings in the first outing and left due to injury one inning into his second.

Eight seasons after arriving in Washington and 16 years after Chicago selected him in the first round, Gonzalez may finally have the opportunity to pitch for the White Sox. Of course, a lot stands in the way of Gonzalez making his debut in Chicago, but that’s nothing new. Now in his third stint in the organization, the White Sox hope Gonzalez will help lead this young team.

Of course, if they don’t make the leap many expect, Chicago could embark on one last selloff of veterans before making a run at contention again in 2021. If that happens, Gonzalez could find his name in the trade papers once again. But for now, as before, Gio Gonzalez is a member of the Chicago White Sox.

Team Plans For Signing Undrafted Amateurs

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Now that MLB’s abbreviated 2020 draft is in the books, we can move along to the next phase of this one-off amateur signing season. Undrafted amateur players will now be free to sign with any team of their choosing, though they are capped with a signing bonus of $20K. Thus, the setup here presents a fascinating situation for amateur ballplayers and for us, those interested in parsing the ins-and-outs of roster-building. Here we have a unique situation where money will not necessarily be the driving factor for players choosing their first professional team. As players start to sign, we’ll likely hear stories that shed light on player perspective, which could paint an interesting picture of how young players view different franchises around baseball. For now, we’re starting to hear from teams themselves about spending limits for this class of amateur free agents. We’ll use this post to update those strategies as they trickle in…

  • The Giants have no apparent limits when it comes to signing amateur free agents now that the draft is completed. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle provides a primer for this period of amateur free agents, writing, “The process starts at 6 a.m. Sunday, and the Giants will compete with the other 29 teams for the best available talent. But rather than outspending the others, all they can do is try to outsell them and offer appealing opportunities.” Given the Giants’ current position as a team looking to infuse as much young talent as possible, one would expect them to be aggressive in their attempts to add players from this pool. Obviously, more players than usual will be returning to college or committing to school as high school graduates, but given the volatility of the MLB draft under normal circumstances, it’s fair to expect a quality player or two to emerge from this pool of undrafted amateurs.
  • The Marlins are planning on limiting their pool of undrafted amateur free agents to 10 signings or less, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (Twitter links). Along with their six drafted players, all of whom are expected to sign, the Marlins can expect an influx of 16 players max.
  • Similarly, the Mariners don’t expect to go hog wild with this year’s class of undrafted amateur. Per MLB.com’s Corey Brock, the Mariners’ Scouting Director Scott Hunter said the Mariners will only be signing between five and ten amateur free agents.
  • The Royals, meanwhile, are ready to shop, tweets Jeff Rosen of the Kansas City Star. The Royals could be big-time players in this sphere, as they’ve generated some goodwill recently because of their treatment of minor league players. Kansas City might not typically be a major free agent draw, but for amateur players, it’s a different story. The Royals have the opportunity and a long track record of highly valuing their own players. For players looking for their first professional contract, the Royals have a lot to offer. Among other things, they’re ready to be aggressive. GM Dayton Moore has the green light to “sign as many of those guys as we can,” per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star.

Replacing Legends

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If you trust Braves’ third base coach Ron Washington, Austin Riley has a long and bright future ahead of him with the Atlanta Braves, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. Said Washington, “He’s a very, very special kid. He’s on that special level with Ozzie (Albies) and (Ronald) Acuńa (Jr.) and all those young guys. He’s on that special level with them.”

Given Washington’s stellar reputation as an infield instructor, his word carries some weight. He goes on in O’Brien’s article to laud not only Riley’s long-term future with the bat, but with the glove as well, calling Riley “a tremendous third baseman.”

While it’s certainly encouraging for Braves’ fans to hear Washington speak so highly of Riley after an up-and-down rookie season, the path ahead is not without obstacles. For starters, he hasn’t locked down his spot in the starting lineup. All accounts suggest he’s going to have to earn his keep while being pushed at third by Johan Camargo. After his first month of big-league action, it would have seemed unfathomable that Riley wouldn’t have the 2020 third base job locked down, but Camargo remains very much in the running, despite struggling himself in 2019. Camargo’s year was worth -0.6 rWAR after hitting only .233/.279/.384 over 248 plate appearances. He’s played much better in the past (4.4 fWAR from 2017 to 2018), and the Braves appear confident he can at the very least hold the line for a year.

Should Camargo get the bulk of playing time at third, Riley could get at-bats as a designated hitter –  at least in theory. But O’Brien notes that the scuttlebutt out of Atlanta pegs Marcell Ozuna as the likeliest option to see heavy minutes as a potential DH. Makes sense with Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, and Nick Markakis on hand to handle the outfield rotation. Riley himself could even see some minutes out on the grass depending on how things shake out.

But the real question at hand here is this: is Austin Riley the third baseman of the future for the Atlanta Braves? Ron Washington certainly seems to think so. If we trust Washington’s eye for defensive talent and assume Riley can stick at third base (or even become a plus defender), the question is whether his approach at the dish can improve enough to take advantage of his otherworldly power.

After all, Riley’s power numbers last year were excellent. He managed a .471 SLG with 18 home runs in just 274 at bats. His isolated power was .245 ISO, well above average and a number you’d hope for out of a middle-of-the-order bat. For context, Acuna Jr. walked away from 2019 with a .238 ISO. A full season at Riley’s mark would put him among the top-40 mashers in the league by isolated power. His power plays.

But even with those numbers, Riley’s total offensive contribution amounted to 14 percent below league average by wRC+. He needs to round out the rest of his game – and that starts with cutting down strikeouts. Riley’s walk-to-strikeout numbers are not anywhere near where they need to be for everyday reps (5.4 BB%, 36.4 K%). Both numbers need to see significant positive regression. The good news is, Riley looked the part in spring training, where signs pointed to Riley being able to make the necessary adjustments.

Third base is a loaded position for Atlanta – in terms of poignancy – and Riley has big shoes to fill. Putting aside the big picture pressure of manning the spot once belonging to the legendary Chipper Jones, even recent history has set a high bar for Riley. Last season, Josh Donaldson returned to All-Star form with a .259/.379/.521 line, 37 rainmaking bombs, 96 runs, 94 RBIs, 132 wRC+, good for 4.9 fWAR/6.0 rWAR. Good luck replicating those numbers out the gate.

Elsewhere in the NL East, another legend moved westward after a memorable 2019. Anthony Rendon gave the Nationals seven underrated seasons at the hot corner before joining the Los Angeles Angels this winter. We could talk all day about Rendon’s performance this postseason, but those in Washington, Rendon-as-superstar was old hat: He’s been a 6+ fWAR performer for three seasons running. Beyond his consistency, there’s simply no replacing the slow-heartbeat clutch-hitting Rendon provided the Nats on their World Series run – but someone is going to have to try.

Enter Carter Kieboom. Rendon’s nominal heir apparent – at 22-years-old – is about half a year younger than Riley, and he comes sporting a shinier prospect pedigree. He’s the 21st ranked prospect overall by MLB.com and Fangraphs, while Baseball America puts him as the 15th overall prospect (admittedly, Riley wasn’t far off, topping out as Baseball America’s 22nd ranked prospect before last season).

Much like Riley, Kieboom’s role at the outset of whatever season comes next is TBD. There’s an even greater chance the Nats roll with veterans Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick and Asdrubal Cabrera sharing at-bats between third and second. At least, that was the plan had the season begun on time. Depending on how live baseball in the pipeline shakes out, the Nats might prefer Kieboom break camp with the team just to ensure he’s continuing his development via live baseball. With a potential DH in play, there may even be enough at-bats for the Nats to accommodate playing time for Kieboom and their veteran triumvirate.

Also like Riley, Kieboom wasn’t overly impressive in his first taste of big-league action. Apologists have plenty of cause to support Kieboom even after hitting just .128/.209/.282 over an 11 game stint early in the year (which included 4 errors at shortstop). Reason being: he wasn’t ready. Kieboom’s April promotion was a case of injury-depleted desperation. The Nats were in a bind with Trea Turner on the shelf. Wilmer Difo wasn’t getting the job done as Turner’s understudy, and the Nats were off to a slow start (11-12 at the time of his debut).

The small sample hasn’t done much to lessen the optimism over Kieboom’s potential, especially after he raked for a line of .303/.409/.493 for Triple-A Fresno. The shortstop-by-nature has a long-term future at third or second in Washington, though the suggestion has been that his power will play enough to handle third, and the Nats’ other top young bat has spent most of his career at second (Luis Garcia).

Riley is about a half-season ahead of Keiboom’s trajectory, giving us more familiarity with his game at the pro level. But for comparison’s sake, Riley hit .293/.366/.626 in 44 games at Triple-A in 2019. They’re both former first-rounders (Riley #41 overall in 2015, Kieboom #28 overall in 2016), but their draft status won’t help as each looks to fill the shoes of franchise legends.

And yet, they’re not the same. Riley is a hulking light-breaker who’s defensively playing up to stick at third base. His frame is redolent of a young Ryan Zimmerman before Mr. Nat made the move across the diamond to first. Kieboom’s not a small man himself (6’2″, 190 lbs), but some scouts thought he could stick at shortstop, and he brings a contact-oriented approach. He can stroke it to all fields with potential plus power and a track record of taking walks and putting the ball in play. They’re different molds as far as third baseman go, but neither has much leeway as they try to establish themselves in the majors. Not with both the Braves and Nationals looking to contend in a season that could be as short as 50-some games.

Whenever they claim regular roles, Riley and Keiboom will be two exciting young talents to track in the NL East. The Phillies’ Alec Bohm may very well throw his hat into this ring in the very near future as well (feel free to make your case for Bohm in the comments). Bohm is another former first-rounder (third overall in 2018), but he’s spent less time in the minors and is actually older than both Riley and Kieboom. Team conditions aside, let’s say you’ve got a hole at third base and the right to poach one third base prospect. Who do you want? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

Who Would You Rather Have As Your Third Baseman For The Next Six Seasons?
Austin Riley 66.63% (3,069 votes)
Carter Kieboom 33.37% (1,537 votes)
Total Votes: 4,606

Never On Top, But Still The Champs

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 The Washington Nationals have had more time than your average champ to take a bow after their World Series victory last October. Their win in Game Seven over the Astros more than seven months ago stands as the most recent non-exhibition game, and though Major League Baseball continues to bob and weave their way back to play amidst this pandemic, the Nats are still the champs until a new one is crowned. Luckily for baseball fans, Davey Martinez’s crew in Washington certainly made the most of their first World Series victory from a lore perspective. Their turnaround after starting 19-31 has been the most often trumpeted fact from their run to the top, but there are plenty more factoids that add flavor to the Nats’ first championship.

For example, as their Twitter account graciously reminds us, they’re “The Greatest Comeback Team In MLB History” after reversing an in-game deficit five times when facing elimination in the postseason. Then there’s Ryan Zimmerman hitting the first home run in their World Series history 15 years after the Nats made him the first-ever draft pick. Howie Kendrick certainly has a story to share, as does Stephen Strasburg, as does, believe it or not, Gerardo Parra, who bonded the clubhouse around – of all things – a South Korean children’s song.

They also became the first team to win a World Series via four road wins, they took out the Astros just weeks before news broke of the sign-stealing scandal, and they coined multiple slogans along the way, like “Stay In The Fight,” “Bumpy Roads Lead To Beautiful Places,” and “Go 1-0 Every Day.”

But despite the rings, the accolades, and the lore aplenty, there’s at least one thing the Nationals did not accomplish. The 2019 Nats became just the second team in the Wild Card Era to win the World Series without spending a single day in first place (2003 Marlins). 

Of course, the introduction of the wild card in 1995 makes this fun fact possible. Since the single wild card was brought into play, we have 25 seasons of wild card history. Seven wild cards survived the gauntlet of the playoffs to win it all: 1997 Marlins, 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, 2004 Red Sox, 2011 Cardinals, 2014 Giants, 2019 Nationals (that’s it, right?). While the run in the early aughts gave the wild card some serious juju, the shine had worn off a bit in recent years. Still, each of the past two decades brought a 30% championship rate for wild card entrants. 

Meanwhile, World Series champions on the whole over the past 25 years have spent an average of 95.88 games in first. Of course, we’re dealing with a small sample size here and a fairly large spread. A standard deviation of ~54 games means that roughly 95% of our champs should have spent somewhere between 41 and 150 games in first, meaning there really are many ways to skin this cat – especially since more than a quarter of World Series champs fell beyond those bounds (thanks a lot, sample size). 

The 2016 Cubs came pretty close to running the table, leading the NL Central for 154 games before capping a season for the ages. They were outdone – White Sox fans will not be surprised to hear – by their crosstown rival. The White Sox were in first place for 161 games during the 2005 season before sweeping the Astros. They did, in fairness, share first place with the Tigers and Twins for (small) portions of the season. The ’02 Angels and ’97 Marlins, meanwhile, barely managed to escape our list by spending 12 and 11 days in first, respectively. 

So while the Nationals had a season for the ages in 2019, there’s yet more for this team to accomplish (if/when play resumes for the 2020 season). The Braves would seem to rule the roost, but the Phillies held a share of the NL East lead for 60 days of the 2019 season, and the Mets took the top spot for a cool 14 days. The Marlins’ 105-loss season didn’t share a ton in common with the Nats’ by the end of the year, but this fact they shared: neither managed to lead the division for even a day.

Rounding Up The Latest Minor League Cuts

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Yesterday brought a slew of news regarding minor league ballplayers. Players like T.J. Rivera, Carlos Asuaje and Juremi Profar were returned to the free-agent pool after rounds of cuts from their minor league teams. There was also a smattering of good news, including a report of David Price giving $1K to each minor leaguer on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster.

Today brings a new round of news about how teams are deciding to treat their minor league players during this trying time. While these cuts seem gaudy, it’s important to note that most teams waited on their spring training cuts, actually extending the pay for many of the players now being cut loose. Every year a round of these cuts occur, and it’s not solely an effect of the coronavirus shutdown. That said, Baseball America’s JJ Cooper is compiling a running list of the number of players released by each organization and comparing those numbers to their releases in 2019 and 2018. As news continues to filter out little by little about each organization’s cuts, let’s try to round up some of that info here…

National League

  • The Giants cut 20 players from their minor league system on Thursday, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.
  • The Diamondbacks have been the most egregious offenders in this department with 62 players released, as noted by Cooper, while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman had the number of Dback releases at 64.
  • It’s not clear if we have the entire list of minor league players released by the Rockies, but The Athletic’s Nick Groke has a list of 15 players with confirmed releases. Groke notes that the Rockies refused comment or confirmation.
  • Cooper also listed the 30 players released by the Braves this week. He notes 31 released last year at this time and 24 the year before.
  • The Mets released 39 players, including right-hander Nick Rumbelow, formerly of the Yankees and Mariners. The Mets, of course, are weighing options in terms of selling the franchise after reporting losses of up to $150MM even if an 82-game season eventually gets underway.
  • The Phillies released T.J. Rivera, but a comprehensive list of players released by the Phillies isn’t yet known.
  • Jim Goulart of Brewerfan.net tweets a list of 30 minor leaguers released by the Brewers thus far, though the list may be incomplete. Goulart compiled the list from milb.com. Veteran Andres Blanco was among those released.
  • The Cubs’ total list of releases reached 28 by the end of the day yesterday, with Brock Stewart and Asuaje two of the better-known names.
  • The Nationals have released more than 30 minor leaguers, per Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic, a number that includes many of their minor league free agents. The club has committed to pay minor league players $300 weekly through June.
  • The Reds and Cardinals are said to have released payers, but the number of players released isn’t clear at this time. Big picture, the Reds have committed to paying their remaining minor leaguers through the end of the minor league season in early September.
  • The Pirates have yet to release any minor league players, according to Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic, though he adds that the club is still deliberating on roster moves so such a decision can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has committed to paying players through at least June.

American League

  • The Rays released “20 or so” players, as per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
  • The Mariners released more than 50 minor leaguers.
  • The Astros released 17 players, all listed here in a tweet from Baseball America’s JJ Cooper. Cooper recalls the Astros number of player cuts from past years, comparing this year’s 18 released players in March through May to 10 players released in 2019 and 24 in 2018.
  • The Orioles cuts came out early, with 37 players listed.
  • The White Sox let go of 25 players, including Josue Guerrero.
  • The Red Sox released 22 players, with Nick Lovullo and Profar two players with some name recognition who are among those released.
  • The Twins and Royals are bringing the best bit of news, as neither organization has made cuts to their minor leaguer systems. Given the number of releases league-wide, it’s a notable decision from these clubs.
  • The Athletics, meanwhile, have informed their minor leaguers that their pay will be suspended as of May 31.
  • The Blue Jays have released 29 minor league players, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. On the bright side, retained players will be paid through the end of June.

On the plus side, teams like the Marlins, Padres, and Mariners will pay their minor leaguers through the end of the season, though releases are still considered a normal course of business. Many clubs have committed to paying their minor leaguers either through the end of June or the end of August.

The Athletic’s Alec Lewis shed some light on the Royals’ mindset, providing a quote from Royals GM Dayton Moore (via Twitter). Among other insights, Moore said, “…we felt it was really, really important not to release one minor league player during this time, a time we needed to stand behind them.”

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