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Cleveland Signs Gavin Williams, Doug Nikhazy

By TC Zencka | July 23, 2021 at 8:57pm CDT

The Cleveland soon-to-be Guardians have come to terms with their first-round draft pick. Gavin Williams, taken with the 23rd overall selection, signed for $2.25MM, more than half a million under the slot amount of $2.93MM, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter).

This seemed like a natural pairing to many, given Cleveland’s success developing pitching and Williams’ tantalizing triple-digit fastball. The soon-to-be 22-year-old posted a 1.99 ERA across 81 1/3 innings for the East Carolina Pirates while winning AAC Pitcher of the Year.

The under slot money can be explained by Williams’ going a little higher in the draft than many expected. ESPN projected him as the 33rd pick, MLB.com had him at 31, and Baseball America put him at #30. Keith Law at the Athletic was even less bullish, placing him at 55th on his list, noting an “intermittent health history.” Conversely, Fangraphs liked him better than most, placing him at 19th on their pre-draft rankings.

Cleveland also came to terms with second-rounder Doug Nikhazy, notes Callis. The Mississippi southpaw signed for $1.2MM, just about equal to the slot value for where he was selected (58th overall).

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2021 Amateur Draft 2021 Amateur Draft Signings Doug Nikhazy Gavin Williams

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Dodgers Recall Brusdar Graterol, Place Max Muncy On Paternity Leave

By TC Zencka | July 23, 2021 at 8:29pm CDT

The Dodgers made a number of expected roster moves this evening, namely placing Max Muncy on paternity leave and recalling right-hander Brusdar Graterol to take his roster spot, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter).

Muncy shouldn’t be away for overlong, which is a good thing given the monster season he’s having thus far. The All-Star has posted 4.7 rWAR with a triple slash line of .273/.413/.565 over 351 plate appearances. He continues to be, if not the most recognizable Dodger star, one of their most efficient performers.

As for Graterol, things have not gone as smoothly since joining the Dodgers as part of the Mookie Betts’ deal. He was reportedly out of shape upon arriving to spring training, and he has yet to contribute much in the way of positive value this season. Still, with the Dodgers looking outside the organization for bullpen help, the 22-year-old former top prospect might represent the best hope for internal improvement.

Otherwise, southpaw Darien Nunez was also recalled, while Garrett Cleavinger was optioned to Triple-A. Nunez has been solid in Triple-A, posting a 2.70 ERA through 16 appearances covering 30 innings. He has four outings with the big-league club, tossing six innings and giving up four earned runs on five hits, including two long balls.

Cleavinger, meanwhile, has been a big part of manager Dave Roberts’ bullpen. The 27-year-old swingman has made 20 appearances (including one start) and tossed 17 innings with an impressive 2.12 ERA. He hasn’t been used that much of late, however, with just one total inning dating back to July 11th. Heading back to Triple-A for a spell should give him the opportunity to get some work in.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Transactions Brusdar Graterol Darien Nunez Max Muncy Mike DiGiovanna

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Latest On Yankees’ Trade Targets

By TC Zencka | July 23, 2021 at 7:21pm CDT

The Yankees are far from matching the kind of production they’ve set as their historical standard, but manager Aaron Boone’s much-maligned unit isn’t exactly dead in the water: they’re five games over .500 and still a very reasonable 4.5 games out of the second wild card spot. Most teams in their spot would be looking for additions to make a playoff push. The Yankees, of course, have no plans of fading into the background, and they’re surely set to make a splash or two here in the final week before the trade deadline.

Trevor Story and Starling Marte continue to be two of the most talked-about names on the market, and both Story and Marte have been connected to the Yanks in recent weeks. They’ve also checked in on Max Kepler, though the Twins’ asking price is said to be “exorbitant,” per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com.

Consider Story or Marte the more likely targets, then, though they’ll face plenty of competition for either player. Both players are, however, likely to move before the deadline. The hangup will be on finding the right match of prospects to send to Colorado and Miami, respectively.

Speculatively speaking, Story would appear the more impactful addition, given how much his glove could improve the Yankees’ defense – and how much he would affect the other pieces of the roster. Sliding Gleyber Torres to second and DJ LeMahieu to first would put all the pieces in the right places, though Luke Voit would be in a position to either move to the bench or push Giancarlo Stanton to the outfield, where the Yankees are hesitant to play him. Still, there aren’t as many teams as it might seem with a hole at shortstop, and some of those teams with obvious needs to upgrade (i.e. the A’s) have been bearish on pursuing one.

Further, ESPN’s David Schoenfield suggests they might be on the lookout for bullpen help. That might be a little offputting to hear at first, as their bullpen ranks third by fWAR this season, but there’s a lot of volume built into that metric. They rank eighth overall with a 3.67 bullpen ERA. The concern, more specifically, is their recent performance. The Yanks’ pen ranks 21st with a 5.19 ERA in July. That’s not necessarily enough to cause full-on panic, but there’s always room for another arm in the bullpen.

 

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Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Aaron Boone Max Kepler Trevor Story

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Orioles Sign First-Round Pick Colton Cowser

By TC Zencka | July 17, 2021 at 2:52pm CDT

The Orioles have signed first round pick Colton Cowser with a $4.9MM bonus, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). Cowser was selected with the #5 overall pick, which carries a slot value of $6,180,700.

As with their first round pick last season, Heston Kjerstad, the Orioles chose Cowser with an eye on signing him to a below-slot value, which should enable them to spend more money further down in the draft. Of course, just because Cowser signed for under slot doesn’t mean he’s not worthy of the pick. Cowser spent three seasons at Sam Houston State University, winning the Southland Conference Player of the Year Award in his junior season, slashing .374/.490/.680 with 16 home runs.

Baseball America ranked him as the No. 11 prospect in the draft, calling him “a rare safe harbor who provides a long history of hitting.” Keith Law put him at No. 14 in his draft preview for The Athletic, while Fangraphs was more bullish, placing him at No. 6 overall with a 50 Future Value.  Cowser’s contact is a plus tool, and he’ll unlock his ceiling if he continues to display power while playing centerfield.

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2021 Amateur Draft 2021 Amateur Draft Signings Baltimore Orioles Transactions Colton Cowser

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Latest On Mariners’ Deadline Plans

By TC Zencka | July 17, 2021 at 2:28pm CDT

The Mariners have been one of the most surprising contenders of the 2021 season to date. Manager Scott Servais entered the season with a six-man rotation and a host of exciting young outfielders getting ready to traverse the grass at T-Mobile Park, but expectations were low for a franchise with zero World Series appearances and no playoff appearances since 2001.

Both droughts are likely to continue into 2022, but there’s at least a chance that the Mariners could continue their upward trajectory and push for a playoff spot this season. With the trade deadline two weeks away, the Mariners are 49-43, on pace for 86 wins and just 3.5 games out of a wild card spot. In fact, they have the best record in the American League for a team not currently in a playoff spot, putting them in prime position to be surprise buyers at the deadline.

GM Jerry Dipoto has his ear to the ground, as ever, though it sounds like he’s still vacillating between the buyers and sellers line. Per The Athletic’s Corey Brock, Dipoto offered this recent assessment: “Our bullpen has been awesome, and it was roughly a number of guys who no one has ever heard of that just needed another chance. That’s put us in a really good position right now to be able to make a more aggressive play in the next two, three weeks if the opportunity presents itself. But we’re not going to push the opportunity because we believe this is a window that is open and we want to make sure it stays open. We don’t want to shortchange our long term.”

Their greatest need, should they want to wrench that window open right now, would be to add another starter to an injury-depleted rotation. Logan Gilbert has emerged as an exciting young arm, and Marco Gonzales is healthy again alongside Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Flexen, but they also have nearly a full rotation on the injured list.

As Dipoto noted above, the bullpen has helped shoulder the load thanks to surprisingly competent seasons from Kendall Graveman, JT Chargois, Paul Sewald, and Drew Steckenrider, a foursome that’s accrued 3.3 fWAR of their league-leading 4.5 bullpen fWAR. The Mariners have made a practice of trading away relievers over the years, but this time around they might choose to hold onto a few of them, especially if they can’t find the rotation help they need.

That said, it’s just as likely that Trader Jerry stays true to his history and deals an arm or two to a contender. Brock suggests that Graveman is the most likely Mariner to find himself in a new uniform by August, which certainly makes some sense given his breakout season. Graveman is a free agent at the end of the year, and right now he’s presenting as a difference-maker, a transition from starter to high-leverage arm that began last season. He has locked down eight saves as the Mariners’ closer, pitching to a sterling 0.93 ERA/3.03 FIP across 29 innings.

Even if the Mariners do decide to sell a piece or two, don’t expect Mitch Haniger to be an easy get. Brock notes that Haniger “isn’t likely to be moved unless the Mariners are floored by a deal.”

On the one hand, that might be surprising given the plethora of promising young outfielders in the organization, well-known prospects like Jarred Kelenic, Jake Fraley, Kyle Lewis, Julio Rodriguez and Taylor Trammell. For now, however, Lewis is hurt, Rodriguez has just 14 games of experience in Double-A, and Kelenic and Trammell have stumbled at the big league level with marks of 12 wRC+ and 74 wRC+, respectively.

In the plus column, Fraley has absolutely raked to a 143 wRC+ by way of a .237/.409/.439 triple slash — buoyed by an above-average .202 ISO and eye-opening 22.1 percent walk rate that would be first overall in the game among qualified hitters if he had more plate appearances. Fraley doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of those other names, however, and it’ll take more than 149 plate appearances to anoint him as an above-average regular.

Which is the point, really, both behind Haniger’s value on the trade market and the Mariners’ desire to keep him. Injuries have slowed his ascension to stardom, but since his arrival in Seattle, he’s been a 127 wRC+ hitter with 78 home runs and a .269/.343/.489 triple slash line across 1,751 plate appearances. He’s 30 years old, and with one more season of team control remaining, it’s easy to understand why contenders might ask about his availability.

Despite Haniger’s importance to this lineup, however, and despite the Mariners having a chance to make a run at the playoffs, Trader Jerry likes to deal. Speculatively speaking, Dipoto likely would prefer to get the godfather offer for Haniger that forces his hand, and maybe that makes him more inclined to see that offer where it doesn’t exist. But by all accounts, Dipoto is content to hold him through the deadline.

He could, after all, explore a trade in the offseason. Besides, with Lewis hurt and Rodriguez not yet ready, there’s no real rush to vacate Haniger’s plate appearances. There’s enough run to go around if Servais wants to see Haniger, Fraley, Trammell, and Kelenic all in the lineup at the same time, though that hasn’t been the case thus far.

Still, expect Dipoto to do something. At the very least, he sounds likely to acquire some kind of starting pitcher, with the real question being the quality of arm he’s able/willing to procure.

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Seattle Mariners Trade Market Jerry Dipoto Kendall Graveman Mitch Haniger Relievers

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Mariners Return Rule 5 Pick Will Vest To Tigers

By TC Zencka | July 17, 2021 at 2:18pm CDT

The Mariners have returned Rule 5 selection Will Vest to the Tigers, the team announced.

The right-hander was selected by Seattle with the 12th overall pick in the Major League phase of the 2020 Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 10, 2020. He was designated for assignment back on July 12th, and now that no team claimed him, he will be returned to the Tigers for one half of the Rule 5 selection fee.

Vest, 26, actually saw a fair amount of playing time with the Mariners, appearing in 32 games and logging 35 innings with a 6.17 ERA/4.17 FIP. He had a 1.38 ERA through his first 12 outings, but things unraveled a bit from there as he allowed 22 earned runs in his next 22 innings.

The control and strikeout numbers aren’t all that encouraging, as a 11.5 percent walk rate is a decent tick above the 8.9 percent league average, and he has only struck out 17.3 percent of opponents, well below the league-average mark of 23.8 percent. Still, there’s enough there to be an interesting arm for the Tigers to take a look at now that he’s back in Detroit. Generally speaking, he did a nice job avoiding barrels and limiting hard contact with a 93.5 mph four-seamer, slider, and change-up.

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Detroit Tigers Rule 5 Draft Seattle Mariners Transactions Will Vest

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White Sox, Lance Lynn Agree To Two-Year, $38MM Extension

By TC Zencka | July 17, 2021 at 12:35pm CDT

The White Sox and Lance Lynn have agreed to a two-year, $38MM extension with a third-year club option that could keep Lynn in Chicago through the 2024 season, the team announced.

The White Sox’ acquisition of Lynn this past winter has thus far proved worthwhile. As you may recall, last December 8th, Chicago sent right-hander Dane Dunning and lefty Avery Weems to the Rangers in exchange for Lynn, who was scheduled to hit free agency after 2021. Dunning has proved himself a capable rotation arm, and on a strict measure of value, it’s possible to give the “trade win” to Texas. Dunning, after all, has produced 1.1 rWAR, and the Rangers maintain control for another five seasons, not to mention six years of control for Weems, should he reach his potential.

In actuality, the deal speaks to the changing needs of franchises moving in different directions. The White Sox are no doubt thrilled with their return, not only because Lynn has produced 3.4 rWAR while making the second All-Star game of his career, but because of the peripheral benefits that came with upgrading from Dunning to Lynn. Lynn’s track record brought a slimmer margin for error, he brings a veteran presence to the clubhouse, familiarity with manager Tony La Russa, and the fiery, chip-on-the-shoulder quality that’s long been a staple of South Side baseball.

Sure enough, the 34-year-old has found a home in Chicago, where he’ll now stay through at least the 2023 season. After making $9.33MM this year in the final season of the three-year, $30MM deal he signed with Texas prior to 2019, Lynn will make $18.5MM in each of the next two seasons.

The White Sox hold an $18MM option for 2024 that includes a $1MM buyout, per MLB.com’s Scott Merkin (via Twitter). There are bonuses, as well, should Lynn finish in the top-3 for Cy Young voting, adds MLB Networks Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Though Lynn has never been a top-3 finisher for the award, he has finished in the top-6 in each of the past two seasons.

Lynn’s 94 mph heater is where its been the past couple of seasons, though he’s dropped its usage from around 50 percent to 43.1 percent. The cutter has picked up the slack, going from 22.2 percent usage last year to 32.2 percent this season. Interestingly, Lynn sticks almost entirely to the fastball, cutter, sinker mix, only rarely turning to a change-up or more traditional curve/slider like he threw in his youth.

The cutter has taken over as a go-to put away pitch for Lynn. Opponents are hitting just .183 with a .295 xSLG against his 88.5 mph cutter. In terms of the bottom line results, however, Lynn has been just about the same guy in Chicago that he was in Texas: he pounds the zone (44.1 Zone%), plays to contact with a below-average 26.5 CSW%, all while coaxing batters to swing the bat (72.7 Z-Swing%, 49.4 Swing% — both marks being above-average), despite just an average ability to get batters to chase outside the zone (30.9 O-Swing%). All in all, he’s posted a 1.99 ERA/3.20 FIP in 16 starts covering 90 2/3 innings.

Securing Lynn keeps another member of Chicago’s impressive core in place. Carlos Rodon is the only member of the rotation not currently signed through next season. The White Sox control Dallas Keuchel and Lucas Giolito through 2023 and Dylan Cease through 2025. No matter what happens with Rodon now, the White Sox should feel secure about their rotation moving into next season.

The White Sox have been wisely proactive about signing their young core to extensions. Yoan Moncada is under contract through 2024, Eloy Jimenez and Aaron Bummer through 2026, and Luis Robert through 2027. Free agent signings Liam Hendriks and Yasmani Grandal also have contracts that run through 2024 and 2023, respectively. Other young talents like Nick Madrigal, Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech and Codi Heuer have yet to even begin the arbitration process.

Securing Lynn, however, was arguably the most important item on GM Rick Hahn’s agenda. Even still, the White Sox should have financial flexibility moving forward. Their luxury tax payroll for 2022 projects to be around $145MM, still well below this season’s $170MM mark. They have just $106MM against the tax on the books for 2023. Those numbers will go up with arbitration raises for Giolito, Evan Marshall and Adam Engel, but not so much as to seriously hinder Chicago’s flexibility, should they want to expand their payroll further while still avoiding the tax.

Those raises, however, will be enough to bring their cash payroll in 2022 already beyond the $133MM they have on the books this season. With Lynn’s extension now in place, the White Sox cash payroll for 2022 sits around $127MM before those arbitration raises. Still, given Chicago’s market and the aggressiveness they’ve shown to build this contender, they should still have room to grow.

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Chicago White Sox Newsstand Transactions Lance Lynn

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A’s Reinstate Mark Canha, Option Skye Bolt

By TC Zencka | July 17, 2021 at 11:09am CDT

The A’s reinstated Mark Canha from the injured list, optioning Skye Bolt to Triple-A to make room on the roster, per the team.

Canha has been tremendous this season, slashing .255/.375/.450 in 325 plate appearances while knocking 11 home runs. Canha was on-pace for a career year before a hip strain sent him to the injured list on June 20th. He’s been out for 20 days, but with a career-high of 126 games, Canha still has the potential to post career-best marks this season, should his good health hold.

Bolt, 27, has stepped in as an injury replacement on multiple occasions for the A’s, slashing just .109/.109/.196 in 48 plate appearances. Though defense is his calling card, Bolt’s -23 wRC+ suggests he has fallen on particularly hard times at the plate. With the A’s starting outfield back together, Bolt heads back to Triple-A to try to get his bat back on track.

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Transactions Mark Canha Skye Bolt

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Cardinals Not Planning To Sell

By TC Zencka | July 17, 2021 at 10:58am CDT

At 44-47, the Cardinals currently sit in fourth place, nine games behind the Brewers for the National League Central lead. But the Cardinals aren’t ready to tear it down and start shedding trade assets. It’s not at all likely that the Cardinals become sellers this July, despite their current place in the standings, per The Athletic’s Katie Woo (via Twitter). Of course, that’s not unusual for the Cardinals, one of the most stable and competitive franchises in the game.

In terms of their chances for contention in 2021, nine games isn’t an inconceivable margin to overcome, though leapfrogging the three teams ahead of them might be as much of a challenge. That said, the Cubs do seem likely to sell, and therefore slip further down the standings as we move into August and September. The Cardinals are also 8.5 games out of a wild card spot, however, so there’s no clear path to a postseason spot.

That said, there are some reinforcements on the way. Both Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty threw bullpens yesterday, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (via Twitter). Mikolas made just one start this year, but he’s been a productive member of the rotation in years past. Flaherty, of course, could be a difference-maker if he’s able to return from his torn oblique.

Jordan Hicks, however, may not return this season, notes Jones. Hicks has been out with elbow inflammation since May 2nd, and there’s still no telling when he might be ready to take the hill again. Given Hicks’ injury history, this latest chapter is particularly disheartening for the 24-year-old flamethrower.

Pitching hasn’t necessarily been the issue for the Cardinals, however. With 360 runs scored, they’ve outscored just the Mets and Pirates, and they are tied with Cleveland for 26th in the Majors with a 88 wRC+. They rank 25th with a .379 SLG and 26th with a .302 OBP. They’re putting the ball in play — 21.9 percent strikeout rate is tied for third-lowest in the Majors — but those balls are largely being turned into outs, as they’re also third-lowest by BABIP with a .272 team batting average on balls in play.

While the Cardinals are built around their pitching and defense, it’s safe to assume they expected more from the offense. They are healthy as a unit now, however, so perhaps the Cardinals expect a second half surge. Regardless, outside of a few veterans like Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Andrew Miller and Kwang Hyun Kim, most of the Cardinals’ roster is controlled beyond this season, so it’s not wholly unreasonable to avoid a sell-off, even if their playoff odds, at the moment, are a slim 1.8 percent, per Fangraphs.

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Notes St. Louis Cardinals Jack Flaherty Jordan Hicks Miles Mikolas

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Twins Place Derek Law On 10-Day Injured List, Move Randy Dobnak To 60-Day Injured List

By TC Zencka | July 17, 2021 at 10:11am CDT

The Twins announced a number of roster moves today, per Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press (Twitter links). First and foremost, Derek Law has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a shoulder impingement. Danny Coulombe also steps away from the team with a trip to the paternity list.

To take their roster spots, Beau Burrows was recalled from Triple-A and Juan Minaya had his contract selected. Charlie Barnes also joins the club to make his Major League debut as the 27th man to start game one of today’s doubleheader. The 25-year-old southpaw has a solid 3.88 ERA across 13 starts in Triple-A this season.

To make room on the 40-man roster, the Twins moved Devin Smeltzer and Randy Dobnak to the 60-day injured list. Smeltzer has already been out for more than 60 days, so his movement was largely clerical.

Dobnak, however, has been out since just June 21st with a finger strain. He’s now likely to miss most of the rest of the season. He won’t be eligible to come off the injured list until late August. All in all, it’s been a disappointing season for Dobnak, whom the Twins signed to a five-year, $9.25MM extension back in March. It was a modest deal, but Minnesota still likely expected more from Dobnak than 43 2/3 innings with a 7.83 ERA/6.19 FIP.

Burrows, 24, was claimed off waivers earlier this year after making just one appearance for the Tigers. The right-hander made five appearances for Detroit last season, all out of the bullpen. He throws a fastball, slider, change-up mix, occasionally going to a sinker and curveball, too. Mostly a starter coming up, it will be worth watching to see if Burrows scales back his pitch mix while working regularly in relief.

Minaya, 30, has made four appearances for the Twins this season after getting relatively regular time out of the White Sox bullpen from 2016 to 2019. In that time, Minaya appeared in 125 games while pitching to a 3.93 ERA across 128 1/3 innings.

Law, 30, has nine appearances spanning 15 innings with a 4.20 ERA/4.64 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates aren’t knocking anyone’s socks off, but his ability to soak up multiple innings at a time has been an asset for a Twins team that has struggled at times to get length from their starters. He does not have any options remaining, though he could theoretically see time in the minors on a rehab stint before returning.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Beau Burrows Derek Law Devin Smeltzer Juan Minaya Randy Dobnak

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