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Poll: Who Will Be The Last Of These Top-10 Free Agents To Sign?

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As we approach the New Year, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents remain on the board.  Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Ian Desmond all have widespread interest, of course, but they each seem intent on waiting for the right offer to materialize.  Beyond that, other notables such as Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir, and Ian Kennedy are still without a ball club.

Last week, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk asked readers to predict who will be the first to come off of the board in each group.  In the “A” squad, nearly 39% of you predicted that Gordon would be the first to sign.  However, this poll was conducted before Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that the incumbent Royals have been told by the outfielder’s camp that they have “no chance” to re-sign their franchise cornerstone as things currently stand.  Gordon’s camp is seeking a contract that will pay him upwards of $20MM per season, and Kansas City has reportedly only offered $12-$13MM per year over four years.

In the next group of free agents, MLBTR readers ID’d Kazmir as the player most likely to sign first.  Kazmir, unlike other players in that tier, does not have a qualifying offer attached.  Of the players in that poll, less than 4% said that Kennedy would be the next to sign with a team.  Things have been oddly quiet for Kennedy who decided to reject the qualifying offer from the Padres back in November.  The Marlins are known to have interest in him, but he is likely too expensive for them, and we haven’t heard much in the way of specific teams talking with his camp.  Maeda took nearly 24% of the vote – an indication that roughly one-quarter of MLBTR readers expect the free agent market to progress pretty slowly since the deadline for him to sign is on January 8th at 5pm ET/4pm CT.

When looking at the ten best free agents left, who do you think will be the last to land with a team?  (MLBTR app users can weigh in here) 

This Date In Transactions History: Mo Vaughn

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On this date in 2001, the Mets acquired first baseman Mo Vaughn from the Angels in exchange for right-hander Kevin Appier.  Vaughn had missed the entire 2001 season with the Angels due to a ruptured tendon in his left arm, but General Manager Steve Phillips & Co. opted to roll the dice on the slugger anyway.  The trade was meant to bring some power to the Mets’ lineup, but Vaughn’s injuries wound up making the deal one of the worst moves of Phillips’ tenure in New York.

The media got wind of the trade almost a week prior to its completion when sources told Tyler Kepner of the New York Times that Phillips, manager Bobby Valentine, and Assistant General Manager Omar Minaya traveled up to Massachusetts to watch Vaughn work out, which was unusual given that Vaughn was under contract with Anaheim.  ”I understand it was very positive.  I heard that they really liked what they saw,” said one source.  That would presumably include Vaughn’s physical shape, despite the slugger’s reported increase from 245 pounds to 275 pounds in his first two seasons with the Halos.

Less than a week later, the Mets agreed to take on Vaughn and the roughly $50MM owed to him over the next three seasons.  As part of the deal, the Mets got to defer some of the money paid to the first baseman while the Angels covered the $8MM he was still owed as part of his signing bonus.  Meanwhile, they would also part with Appier, who was coming off of an impressive season in his first (and only) campaign in blue and orange.  The right-hander posted a 3.57 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9, his best numbers since his time in Kansas City.

Vaughn wasn’t able to mash the ball as well as he had in years past by the time he got to Shea, but the veteran still managed to hit .259/.349/.456 with 26 homers in 139 games in 2002.  The 2003 season was an entirely different story, however, as a knee injury in early May would bring his career to a close.  Meanwhile, Appier pitched to a 3.92 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 32 starts for the Halos in 2002, helping to propel the Halos to their first World Series title.  The Angels wound up releasing Appier the following year as he struggled with a flexor tendon injury, but one has to imagine that they were pretty happy to get out from under the money owed to Vaughn.

This post was originally published in 2012.

MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Blue Jays, Giants, A-Rod

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Here’s this week’s look at the baseball blogosphere:

Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.

AL Notes: Rays, Orioles, Twins

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On December 16th, the Orioles agreed to sign Korean outfielder Hyun-soo Kim to a two-year, $7MM deal.  However, the pact wasn’t officially announced until one week later on December 23rd.  The culprit? – the Orioles’ notoriously thorough physical.  Luckily for both sides, however, Kim was never in any real danger of not passing the exam.

Here’s a look at the American League, including some discussion on what the O’s might do next:

  • In a recent mailbag, a reader asked Bill Chastain of MLB.com if Rene Rivera will still be in the Rays’ plans for the 2016 season.  Rivera had a disappointing first season at the plate in Tampa Bay after coming over via trade, but the Rays are hopeful that he can turn that around while maintaining his solid defense.  The Rays could keep Rivera, Curt Casali, and Hank Conger in ’16, or they might opt to trade one of the three to clear out the surplus.  Keeping all three wouldn’t be a crazy notion as Casali and Conger can provide offense where Rivera cannot.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com wonders where the Orioles’ next left-handed hitter will come from.  Chris Davis, of course, would satisfy that need, but Baltimore has made it clear that it will not wait around for him.  Other alternatives could include signing a left-handed DH like Pedro Alvarez or really opening up the checkbook to ink Alex Gordon.  Meanwhile, the O’s are also expected to take a peek at the available second-tier starters.
  • The Twins were on a mission to keep Mason Melotakis’ recovery under wraps in an effort to keep him away from interested teams in the Rule 5 draft, as Phil Miller writes for Baseball America (sub. req’d).  Ultimately, however, the Twins put him on the 40-man roster rather than risk losing him.

NL Notes: Cabrera, Cardinals, Phillips

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In 2015, Matt Duffy thrust himself into the baseball limelight for his play on the field as well as his social media presence, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.  As far as the baseball part goes, Duffy says that he isn’t stressing over whether he can manage a repeat performance in 2016.

“I think it’s human to think about that,” Duffy said. “But you just get back to what made me able to do it. I wasn’t worrying about hitting .300 or hitting ten homers.  I did it by focusing on the most simple thing: See the ball as big as I can and put a good swing on it. As soon as you think about other people’s expectations, you lock yourself up trying to do the simplest things.”

Here’s more out of the National League:

  • Mark Simon of ESPN.com looked at new Mets shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and stacked him up against everyone else at his position at shortstop.  Ultimately, Cabrera does not grade out as an elite option, but he is an upgrade over what the Mets had there prevously.  A major league scout told Simon that Cabrera profiles similarly to former teammate Jhonny Peralta. “I don’t think he’s a top-15 shortstop, but he’s in the middle of the pack,” said the scout. “What I like about in him is his ability to switch-hit, and I like his hands defensively. Everything he gets to, he’ll catch. Range-wise, he’s limited, but he’s still a quality baseball player. He knows how to do little things that help his team win. He may not match up to the kids at shortstop athletically, but he’ll surpass them in baseball intelligence. His brain is top-10. He’s still a very good guy to have on a major-league roster.” Cabrera inked a deal with the Mets which will guarantee him $18.5MM over the next two seasons plus a club option that could keep him in place through 2018.  As it stands, Cabrera might go down as the Mets’ biggest free agent splash this winter.
  • The Cardinals must focus on offensive development to remain a perennial contender, Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch opines.  Thanks to revenue sharing, even smaller market teams are able to lock up their young bats well before they can ever hit the open market.  Historically, the Cardinals have shied away from the high-ceiling potential of high school hitters in favor of college players with quick developmental potential.  Now, with three selections within the first 40 or so picks, Gordon believes that the Cards can afford to go with more long-range prospects.
  • Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News cannot understand why Reds Brandon Phillips refused to sign off on a trade that would have sent him to the Nationals.  The second baseman reportedly wanted enhancements made to his current pact, which calls for him to earn $27MM over the next two years.  McCoy views the veteran as greedy for making those demands and can’t fathom why he wouldn’t want to play for a winning team like the Nationals, especially when it means that he could have been reunited with Dusty Baker.  Of course, after the Nats agreed to sign Daniel Murphy, there’s no real chance of that deal coming back together.

NL West Notes: Shields, Dodgers, Padres

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Here’s a look at the NL West:

  • With pitching costs rising around baseball, Jeff Sanders of U-T San Diego wonders if James Shields’ contract is now movable.  Shields is owed $65MM through 2018 and San Diego probably can’t find a taker for all of it, but they could potentially find a match if they’re willing to eat some of that salary.  In a market where Mike Leake scored $16MM/year with a career 4.21 FIP, it’s not inconceivable that a match could be found for Shields.
  • On Christmas Eve, Jim Duquette of MLB.com suggested a trio of trades that, in his opinion, make too much sense not to happen.  Among the deals is a swap between the Dodgers and Rays that would send Jake Odorizzi and Brad Boxberger to Los Angeles.  Odorizzi would give the Dodgers a strong middle-of-the-rotation arm while Boxberger would give them a solid power arm to go along with Kenley Jansen in the bullpen.  The price, of course, wouldn’t be cheap.  Duquette sees the Rays targeting a package featuring left-hander Julio Urias, righty Jose DeLeon, and second baseman Micah Johnson, plus some other mid-level prospects.
  • The Padres have a mess on their hands as a “mentally ill man” took legal title to Petco Park by filing out a deed transfer, as David Garrick of U-T San Diego writes.  The man, Derris Devon McQuaig, cannot truly claim ownership to the building, but he can create a hassle for others. “I don’t think in any way it would be deemed credible because it’s pretty clearly just a ‘wild deed’ that has no legal sufficiency,” Olson said. “But it could cause headaches for someone down the road.”

Follow MLBTR On Instagram

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Earlier this year, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account: @TradeRumorsMLB.  Each day, we’re sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball.  From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend.

Recently, we’ve giving fans an early look at traded players in their new jerseys.  Here’s a glance at how Starlin Castro will look in pinstripes.  And how about Ben Zobrist in his new Cubs uniform?  If you’re looking for Todd Frazier in a White Sox jersey, Johnny Cueto in a Giants uniform, or Mike Leake in his new threads, we’ve got you covered there too.

So, what are you waiting for?  If you don’t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one.  Follow us on Instagram today!

Int’l Notes: Navarro, Kim, Orioles

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The Padres and other clubs had their eye on Japanese standout Nobuhiro Matsuda, but earlier this week the veteran third baseman decided to stay put.  Even though Matsuda had the opportunity to ink a major league deal, he couldn’t turn down a massive four-year deal worth $20-25MM from the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks.  There was talk that the 32-year-old might have been able to net a multi-year guarantee from an MLB club, but it’s hard to imagine that any team would have given him a deal of that size.

Matsuda is staying overseas, but we have some news on other international talent that will be coming stateside.  Here’s the latest:

  • Contract talks have broken off between second baseman Yamaico Navarro and Korea’s Samsung Lions, a league source tells Yonhap News.  “It’s highly unlikely we will retain Navarro,” the official said. “Unless there’s a dramatic turn of events, we will go our separate ways.”  Navarro hit 31 homers, stole 25 bases, and posted a slash line of .308/.417/.552 in 2014.  This past season, Navarro belted 48 home runs  (good for second in the KBO), notched 22 steals, and posted a .287/.393/.596 line.   It’s not immediately clear if Navarro will set his sights on an MLB return, but if he does, one has to imagine that he will garner some interest.  For what it’s worth, the Lions have concerns about the 28-year-old’s work ethic, according to the report.
  • New Orioles outfielder Hyun-soo Kim thanked Pirates infielder Jung-ho Kang for blazing a trail for him to come stateside.  “I am proud of having signed a major league deal as a Korean player,” Kim said, according to Yonhap News. “I will try not to ruin the groundwork that Jung-ho has laid. I feel some pressure in that regard.”  Kim has put up a big .318/.406/.488 slash in the offensively robust KBO, and last year had his best-ever showing.  Not only did he slash .326/.438/.541, but Kim also banged a career-best 28 home runs.  And, unlike some other KBO players who have moved over to MLB, Kim has displayed tremendous plate discipline.  Last year, he struck out only 63 times while drawing 101 walks.
  • On Friday morning, we learned that Cuban sensation Lazaro Armenteros will be holding a showcase for MLB clubs on January 8th.

Cuban Phenom Lazaro Armenteros To Hold Jan. Showcase

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Cuban phenom Lazaro Armenteros could be the next big thing, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes.  In fact, the 16-year-old could be the best amateur player to sign in 2016.

Armenteros, who has been given the soccer-type one-name moniker of Lazarito, possesses “a rare combination of dazzling speed, raw power and outfield arm strength” and profiles as a very strong corner outfielder.  One veteran international scout who marveled at his mix of speed and power even said that he has something that is reminiscent of Willie Mays and Bo Jackson.  Two more scouting directors confirmed to Nightengale that Armenteros has superstar potential.

Lazarito is so good that he already has a Japanese team willing to pay him $15MM to play in Nippon Professional Baseball, Nightengale hears.  Still, his main focus is signing with an MLB team.  On January 8th, Armenteros will show his stuff in a showcase for MLB teams in San Cristóbal.  In the meantime, MLB is expected to rule by the end of January whether he’s eligible to sign now, or must wait until the next signing period that begins July 2.

Armenteros attempted to defect Cuba multiple times, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez wrote back in September.  He first tried to fly into Ecuador, only to be sent back on a return flight.  He then traveled to Russia with the hopes of being able to fly from Moscow to Haiti, but he was once again sent away.  However, Lazarito made a savvy move and purchased a ticket to Haiti during a layover in Germany.  After spending some time in Haiti, the 16-year-old athlete made his way over to the Dominican Republic, where he works out six days a week in a remote beach town.

In the midst of all that craziness, Armenteros missed the May 15 cutoff date to officially register for the international signing period.  Now, MLB must decide whether to grant him an exemption.  There is precedent for that, so it is certainly possible that he will be given the green light.

Adding to the mystery is the fact that Armenteros has not been seen playing organized baseball since the summer of 2014.  Thanks to sanctions from the Cuban government, the Jan. 8 showcase will be his first time in front of MLB scouts in about 18 months.   Agent Charles Hairston says that 150 to 200 scouts will be on hand for the audition, even though they’re not supposed to be there.

“Technically, it’s illegal for teams to see him now,” Hairston says, “but every team I’ve talked to has confirmed they will be there. Everyone is very much aware of him.”

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