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Jonathan Mayo Discusses Bruce For Bedard

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You’ve probably heard of Jonathan Mayo.  He’s a prominent writer on MLB.com, focusing on the minor leagues more recently.  Mayo recently wrote a book called Facing Clemens, which "puts you right in the batter’s box against the Rocket Man."  Mayo finished the book before the steroid allegations surfaced, but it sounds like an interesting read regardless.

In the interest of full disclosure, I should mention that if you click the above Amazon link and buy the book, I’ll get 46 cents.  Hopefully Mayo gets a better cut than that from his publisher!

Anyway, I asked Mayo a handful of questions for publication on MLBTR.

MLBTR: If you were Wayne Krivsky, would you trade Jay Bruce for Erik Bedard straight up?  What players would you compare Bruce to?  How does Bruce compare to Adam Jones?

Mayo: In a word, no. I wouldn’t trade Bruce for Bedard straight up. Frankly, and maybe I’m a little prospect-slanted, there’s not much I would trade Jay Bruce for. Not only is the guy going to be one of the game’s great hitters, he’s an outstanding individual who’ll represent the organization extremely well. I know that’s not the be-all, end-all, but Bruce is going to be a true ambassador for the game. He’s going to hit for average, get on base, hit for a ton of power, play good OF (eventually RF, but fine in CF for now), throw runners out, maybe even steal a few bases. It’s hard to come up with a good comparable, but I’ll go with Larry Walker. Maybe not quite as much speed, but it’s pretty close.

Jones is more of a prototypical five-tooler, who won’t hit for as much power right away. I think Bruce has more power potential than Jones, while Jones is likely a bit faster and will stay in CF.

Erik Bedard Rumors

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Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider dug up "a few fresh nuggets" regarding the Erik Bedard trade discussions.

  • The Mariners reportedly offered Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and George Sherrill for Bedard.  Seems the Orioles want Brandon Morrow or Carlos Triunfel instead of Clement.  One source of Churchill’s believes the Mariners would be more inclined to buckle and surrender Morrow than Triunfel.  It’s even possible that the Orioles gave the Mariners a "final counteroffer" including one of the two and will move on if it’s rejected.
  • Many Mariners fans believe Bedard is not even worth Jones straight up, so imagine how they’ll feel if the Orioles extract significantly more.
  • The Orioles still want Jay Bruce from Cincinnati; otherwise they would ask for a ridiculous package of pretty much everyone else worth discussing in the Reds’ farm system.

Brian Roberts Deal Dead?

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A trusted emailer wrote in to tell me about a report today from Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000.  According to Levine, Brian Roberts is no longer available.  The Orioles were apparently asking for Tyler Colvin or Felix Pie plus multiple pitchers, and the Cubs wouldn’t do it.

Levine says the Cubs may turn their attention to the Rangers’ Marlon Byrd or free agent Jon Lieber.

Reds To Stand Pat On Rotation?

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The Cincy Enquirer’s John Fay thinks the Reds are backing off on Erik Bedard as well as the second-tier free agent pitchers.  He’s talked to some baseball people on the topic and believes the price is too high for the Reds in any case.

Honestly they’re not in that bad of shape with Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, and Matt Belisle.

Erik Bedard Mariners/Reds Rumors

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UPDATE, 1-10-08 at 5:38pm: Churchill has further updated his right-hand sidebar referencing the Reds possibility.  He says the O’s want Bailey, Votto, Cueto, and Edwin Encarnacion.  This is particularly lopsided, and pushing Melvin Mora back to Cincy wouldn’t make it any less so.  Mora may have negative value at this point.  Meanwhile John Fay says nothing new has happened on the Reds/Bedard front.

UPDATE, 1-09-08 at 9:07pm:  Rosenthal checks in with an update.  If the Mariners would give up Chris Tillman, they could have a done deal.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein ranks the 19 year-old righty as Seattle’s second best prospect, giving him a number two starter ceiling.  Rosenthal confirms that Jones is the centerpiece, while George Sherrill and Carlos Triunfel are in play.

Meanwhile, Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider says on the right-hand sidebar of this page that the Reds might step up their offer in an attempt to make a late play.  He thinks they could give up Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and a fourth player, which would be absurd.

FROM 1-09-08 at 9:03am:

On Tuesday, both Ken Rosenthal and Jason Churchill carefully stated that the Orioles and Mariners were making progress on an Erik Bedard trade.  The deal would center around Adam Jones but include other good young players as well.  The Reds and Indians were named as other lingering Bedard suitors.

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times checked in on the Bedard situation today.  His MLB source agreed that talks between the Mariners and Orioles have heated up.  Andy MacPhail, however, would not use the words "heating up."  Stone goes on to mention that the Mets "could be players" for Bedard in addition to the Ohio teams.  Contrary to earlier reports, Stone was able to extract a quote from Ms GM Bill Bavasi that indicated Brandon Morrow was not off limits.

John Hickey admits that the rumors won’t die but doesn’t think the Mariners have made any actual progress on a deal.  He agrees that Morrow seems a bit more available than he did before.  Hickey suggests Josh Fogg could be a backup plan to Bedard for Seattle, noting that Fogg likes the idea of pitching in Safeco.  The Reds are also believed to have interest in Fogg.

Brian Roberts Cubs Rumors

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UPDATE, 1-9-08 at 6:06pm: WGN Radio’s Dave Kaplan checked in on this situation on his blog.  He has "great sources" saying the price for Roberts is much higher than was previously reported.  The Orioles want Rich Hill, Felix Pie, or Tyler Colvin.  Hill is known to be off-limits.

UPDATE, 1-9-08 at 10:58am: Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune believes this deal "is almost certainly going to happen."  He expects it to be for the same players Orioles Hangout mentioned.  However, an Orioles official contacted Orioles Hangout to tell them their report was inaccurate.

UPDATE, 1-9-08 at 9:22am: Roch Kubatko (via a team spokesman) and Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun talked to Andy MacPhail and report that nothing has changed since last night on the Roberts talks and no deal is done.

FROM 1-9-08 at 7:53am:

Orioles Hangout is reporting that the trade of Brian Roberts to the Cubs is final.  They’re saying it’s for Sean Gallagher, Sean Marshall, and Ronny Cedeno.  I’ll update the post as info comes along.

Odds and Ends: Mantei, Foulke, Cairo, Guardado

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Here are this morning’s random rumors and links.

Erik Bedard Rumors: Mariners, Reds, Indians

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Erik Bedard staying put in Baltimore this winter?  Maybe not.  Ken Rosenthal and Jason Churchill both busted out brand new material this evening with the latest Bedard chatter.  The upshot is that the Mariners seem to have a decent shot at him.

  • Rosenthal says the Mariners will put Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, and Matt Tuiasosopo in the deal.  He indicates that the Orioles could push to substitute and get one of Tony Butler, Chris Tillman, and Carlos Triunfel.  Looks like Bill Bavasi is sticking to the idea of keeping Brandon Morrow.  Rosenthal hedges his bets, but admits to "growing indications that the teams could be moving closer to a deal."
  • Churchill says something similar: the Mariners and Orioles "may very well be making significant progress."  Churchill sees a package of Jones, Triunfel, and George Sherrill as the likely scenario. 
  • Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein recently listed his Top 11 Prospects for the Mariners.  Clement was a five-star, Tillman and Triunfel four-stars, Butler a two-star, and Tuiasosopo an honorable mention.  Jones would be first were he still considered a prospect.
  • Both Ohio teams have interest in Bedard as well, but a trade to the Indians or Reds seems less likely.  The Reds still won’t give up Jay Bruce.

Cubs, Indians Interested In Roberts

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Ken Rosenthal is back with a bang, penning a new article about Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts trade possibilities.  We already updated you on the Bedard situation over yonder.

Rosenthal says the Cubs are still the best fit for Roberts, also noting interest from the Mets and Indians. Last we heard, the Cubs’ offer included Sean Gallagher and Matt Murton but not Rich Hill or Felix Pie.  Ronny Cedeno, Sean Marshall, and Donnie Veal could also be in the mix.

Interesting to hear that the Tribe is quietly taking a look at both Roberts and Bedard, just as they were quietly players for Dan Haren.   Bedard could fill the void if C.C. Sabathia were to leave via free agency.  What would a Roberts acquisition mean?  Asdrubal Cabrera to short, Jhonny Peralta to third or traded?

Orioles Could Re-Sign Corey Patterson

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It seemed the Orioles had no interest in retaining Scott Boras client Corey Patterson.  However, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles have renewed their interest in the 28 year-old center fielder.

My guess is that the Orioles backed off when Boras told them his initial demands for Patterson (three years, $24MM maybe?)  But now Patterson is still hanging around and no teams seem to be actively pursuing him. Connolly mentions the Cardinals, Braves, Twins, and Pirates as possible fits, but admits they’re long shots.  Patterson was born in Atlanta.

Patterson has a chance to be a mild bargain if he rediscovers his power stroke.  He’s striking out less and less, which could mean an improvement in batting average.  The offensive bar is pretty low for center field if you play good defense.

The Orioles are still entertaining possible trades that could bring them a center fielder and take them out of the mix for Patterson.  They could get Adam Jones in an Erik Bedard trade, or a "Chicago Cubs outfield prospect" in a Brian Roberts deal.  I doubt this would be Felix Pie.

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