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Nick Pivetta Unlikely To Accept Qualifying Offer

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Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta was one of the more surprising recipients of a $21.05MM qualifying offer earlier this month, but he’s likely to reject the offer in search of a multi-year deal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who suggests that “at least” a three-year deal should be waiting for the righty, who’s heading into his age-32 season. Passan lists the Orioles, Cubs and Braves as potential landing spots.

Anything more than a three-year deal for Pivetta would register as a surprise and something of a precedent-breaker. In the past ten offseasons, only four pitchers have commanded a contract of four or more years when signing ahead of their age-32 season or later (link via MLBTR’s Contract Tracker): Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM starting at age 35), Hyun Jin Ryu (four years, $80MM starting at 33), Zack Greinke (six years, $206.5MM starting at 32) and James Shields (four years, $75MM starting at 33).

Solid as Pivetta is, he doesn’t have the track record of any of those four pitchers. When healthy, deGrom has been the best pitcher on the planet. Ryu signed his four-year deal after a Cy Young runner-up. Greinke was opting out of a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers and was one of the game’s best pitchers at the time he signed his six-year deal with Arizona. Shields was a clear No. 1 or 2 starter, having pitched 933 innings over the prior four seasons — 233 per year — with a 3.17 ERA and strong strikeout and walk rates.

Pivetta doesn’t have that sort of resume, though his high-end strikeout and walk rates have made him a candidate for a quietly strong deal. When preparing for our annual top 50 free agent rankings, we felt a three-year deal in the $14-17MM annual range was possible for Pivetta — at least before he received a qualifying offer. The right-hander has never turned in a sub-4.00 ERA campaign, but that’s largely due to a regular susceptibility to home runs, something that another club might feel can be curbed or improved with a tweak in mechanics, approach or pitch selection. Pivetta is durable, misses bats at a premium level and has improved his command three years running. He ranked 10th among 126 big league pitchers (min. 100 innings) in terms of his K-BB% this season (22.9%).

It still seems feasible that a three-year deal could be there, but suggesting anything more feels like a stretch, unless multiple teams feel Pivetta is untapped as a potential No. 1-2 starter and is willing to ignore historical norms for pitchers in this age bracket. That could well be the case, but Passan opines that Pivetta “is looking at one of the biggest deals of the winter for a starter,” which would surprise plenty of onlookers. That’s a subjective sentence, but no one expects Pivetta to top Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell and Jack Flaherty, while others like Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi should have greater per-year earning power on a three- or four-year contract.

Time will tell where the bidding lands, but the more immediate takeaway is that Pivetta apparently doesn’t feel inclined to lock in a one-year deal that would more than double his career earnings. That speaks to the strength of the market he and his agents at CAA are finding for his services thus far.

Orioles, Vimael Machin Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles are signing infielder Vimael Machin to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, reports ESPN’s Jorge Castillo. The former A’s infielder spent the past two seasons playing in the Mexican League and last appeared in a big league game during the 2022 season. Machin is a client of Usus Sports Management.

Machin, 31, was the Athletics’ Rule 5 pick out of the Cubs organization back in 2019. He held a roster spot in the shortened 2020 season, tallying 74 plate appearances, and picked up another 15 MLB plate appearances in 2021. Machin’s career-high workload in the majors came in 2022, when Oakland plugged him into 73 games and gave him 253 turns at the plate. He’s shown strong discipline in the majors, walking at a 10% clip, but Machin is just a .208/.290/.261 hitter overall.

That tepid production has come in a sample of 361 plate appearances across three seasons, but Machin has been much better in the upper minors. He’s a career .291/.384/.439 hitter in parts of five Triple-A campaigns and just last year posted a ridiculous-looking .401/.495/.579 slash in 85 games with los Charros de Jalisco in Mexico. (As evidenced by that line, the Mexican League is an overwhelmingly hitter-friendly setting — even more so than the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.)

Machin has played all four infield positions extensively. He’s spent the most time at third base (3810 innings) but also has more than 2000 innings at second base, more than 1000 at first base and another 935 innings at shortstop. He’s a left-handed bat with excellent plate discipline (12.8% walk rate in Triple-A) and strong bat-to-ball skills (15.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A; 18.6% in the majors).

Baltimore obviously has a crowded infield already, with Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Urias all mixing in at various spots. Machin adds some experienced depth to stash in Triple-A and an option to compete for a roster spot if a combination of injuries and trades thins out Baltimore’s enviable stash of infielders at some point.

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

Red Sox, Orioles, Dodgers Interested In Teoscar Hernández

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Free agent Teoscar Hernández just won a World Series and is now drawing interest in the early days of the offseason. The Red Sox and Orioles are interested in the outfielder, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network on X. The Dodgers and Hernández also have mutual interest in a reunion, per Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports.

Hernández, 32, was a free agent a year ago and received interest from the Red Sox at that time. Chris Cotillo of MassLive (X link) reported that the Sox offered him $28MM over a two-year deal, numbers that were later confirmed by the player himself when speaking to Rob Bradford of WEEI and the Baseball Isn’t Boring Podcast.

He turned down that offer and instead took a slightly smaller guarantee on a one-year pact with the Dodgers. That deal paid him $23.5MM with some deferrals, but perhaps most importantly, allowed him to return to free agency after hopefully having a bounceback year.

That bet on himself looks like it will pay off well. From 2020 to 2022, he slashed .283/.333/.519 for the Blue Jays, production that led to a 132 wRC+. His defense wasn’t great but he did steal 24 bases in that stretch and the offense was undeniable. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2023 and had a down year at the plate, hitting .258/.305/.435 for a 106 wRC+. With that weak platform year, his free agent market was fairly tepid, including the aforementioned offer from Boston.

But his year with Los Angeles could hardly have gone much better, as he hit .272/.339/.501 for a 134 wRC+, right back to his previous form. His defensive metrics still weren’t great but he swiped another 12 bags. He got into 16 playoff games and hit .250/.352/.417 for a 119 wRC+. On MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, we predicted that he could secure a three-year, $60MM deal this time around.

Whether he can get that deal or not, the Sox would almost certainly have to increase their offer from a year ago. If they are willing to do so, his right-handed swing would fit well on a roster with plenty of left-handed bats. Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu all hit from the left side, as do prospects Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony.

Last year, the Sox complemented their lefty outfielders by having Tyler O’Neill, who had a good season in a specific way. He was injured a few times, struck out a bunch and did most of his damage against lefties, but still had a strong season overall. He hit 31 home runs in 113 games for a .241/.336/.511 slash line and 131 wRC+, all that despite a 33.6% strikeout rate and a meager 91 wRC+ against righties.

Hernández should be ranked a bit above O’Neill as he has a slight edge in most of those areas. His 28.8% strikeout rate in 2024 was high but not as bad as O’Neill’s. He does have platoon splits, though not to the same extent as O’Neill. Hernández has a 140/113 wRC+ split in his career and was at 154/126 in 2024. He’s also far more durable, having played at least 125 games in each of the past six full seasons, whereas O’Neill has only hit that number once in his career.

Either could work as the needed righty for Boston. Hernández would arguably be better but would also likely cost more. O’Neill was predicted by MLBTR for a three-year deal just like Hernández but with a lesser guarantee of $42MM. However, Hernández received a qualifying offer from the Dodgers and is therefore tied to draft pick forfeiture, whereas O’Neill is not. Per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe on X, the Sox remain engaged with O’Neill’s camp and could potentially bring him back.

Either should fit in the club’s budget. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of $136MM right now, more than $50MM below where they were in 2024. They’re about $70MM below the competitive balance tax line. They have needs on the pitching staff but could certainly spend on an outfielder if they want.

For the Orioles, they are a logical fit for similar reasons. Their lineup features lefties Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday. Prospects Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers are also lefty swingers. Their outfield just lost switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander to free agency, so Hernández could slot in as Santander’s replacement if the O’s don’t re-sign him.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias recently identified a right-handed hitting outfielder as an offseason target, per Jake Rill of MLB.com. The big question is how much spending capacity the club will have this winter. In the past six years, they haven’t given a free agent a multi-year deal, with Craig Kimbrel’s $13MM guarantee on a one-year pact their largest expenditure.

For much of that time, they were rebuilding and then the club was up for sale. David Rubenstein took over ownership officially just as the 2024 season was getting started. It has been expected that the club will get a bit more aggressive and their trade deadline behavior gave some encouraging signs in that regard. They took on notable money to acquire Zach Eflin and Seranthony Domínguez, but it’s still unknown exactly how far they plan to go this winter.

“Whether it’s free-agent spending or it’s support for my staff or the baseball organization, I think we have everything that we need financially to make the optimal decisions for the long-term health of the franchise. And a lot of that’s going to be in my judgment,” Elias said this week. “But certainly, if we have something that we want to do and we need financial support for it, I’m exceedingly confident that that’s going to be there.”

Returning to the Dodgers is also easy to see, especially with the club planning to move Mookie Betts back to the infield next year. That means the projected outfield currently consists of Andy Pages, James Outman and utility guys like Tommy Edman and Chris Taylor. While the Dodgers could easily fit Hernández in there, they will probably first see how things play out with their reported interest in Juan Soto.

Orioles To Name Cody Asche Hitting Coach

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The Orioles plan to name Cody Asche hitting coach, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (X links). Kubatko also reported earlier today that Baltimore was hiring Tommy Joseph away from the Mariners as an assistant hitting coach.

Baltimore parted ways with former hitting coaches Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte at the end of the season. Borgschulte landed with the Twins as their top hitting instructor last month. Kubatko reports (on X) today that Fuller is headed to the White Sox as director of hitting.

Asche will take a larger role in their stead. The O’s hired the former big league third baseman/outfielder as offensive strategy coach during the 2022-23 offseason. Asche had something of a de facto third hitting coach job in that capacity for two years. The O’s now seem content to turn the lead job over to the 34-year-old.

Most of Asche’s five-year playing career came as a member of the Phillies. The left-handed hitter played in Philadelphia between 2013-16. The final of those seasons overlapped with Joseph, a former first baseman who played 249 games for the Phils between 2016-17. Joseph made the transition to coaching in 2021. He spent a trio of seasons working with minor league hitters before joining Seattle’s staff as an assistant hitting coach. The Mariners shook up their hitting staff a couple times last season but kept Joseph in the fold all year. He’ll move on after one season to work with his former teammate in Baltimore.

Baltimore also has a bench coach vacancy after parting with Fredi González at the end of the year. The O’s haven’t settled on a replacement, but one notable name is connected to the job. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that the Orioles have interest in David Ross for the position, though he cautions that it’s unclear if that interest is mutual.

Last winter, Ross rebuffed interest from the Yankees regarding their bench coach job. That came within a week of his surprise firing as Cubs manager when Chicago jumped on the chance to hire Craig Counsell. Ross seemingly didn’t have any desire to take a non-managerial coaching job at the time. It isn’t known if that has changed, though he has close ties to Baltimore skipper Brandon Hyde. The O’s manager was on the Cubs’ coaching staff while Ross played for Chicago in 2015-16.

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today is the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN on X, 13 players have received the QO and they are:

As a recap, the qualifying offer system was created in the name of competitive balance, allowing clubs to receive compensation if key players depart via free agency. The value changes from year to year as it is the average of the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year’s QO is valued at $21.05MM.

If the player rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, his previous team receives draft compensation while his new club is subject to draft pick forfeiture and sometimes international bonus penalties as well. MLBTR has previously covered what each team’s compensation and penalties would be.

Players have until 3pm Central on November 19 to decide whether to accept or not. In that time, they are free to negotiate with other clubs just like all other free agents, assessing their options before making a decision.

Most of the players on this list are not surprising. Many of them have enough earning power where it was obvious that they would receive a QO and they have an easy decision to reject it while going on to pursue larger guarantees on multi-year deals. Some of the decisions were a bit more borderline and MLBTR took closer looks at those in separate posts, including Martinez, Pivetta and Severino/Manaea.

There were also some notable players who were candidates to receive a QO but ultimately didn’t. MLBTR recently took a look at the pitchers and position players with a chance at receiving a QO. Michael Wacha was listed as a possibility but that came off the table when he and the Royals agreed to a new deal yesterday. Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Jeff Hoffman of the Phillies, Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox, Gleyber Torres of the Yankees, as well as Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar of the Padres were all identified as long shots to receive a QO and ultimately none of them did.

Clubs generally don’t want to lose draft picks or be subject to the other associated penalties. As such, receiving a QO can sometimes have a negative impact on a player’s prospects in free agency, though it won’t be a significant factor for the top guys.

Orioles Claim Rene Pinto, Thaddeus Ward

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The Orioles have made a few tweaks at the back of the roster to start the offseason. Baltimore announced a pair of waiver claims: catcher Rene Pinto from the division rival Rays and right-hander Thaddeus Ward from the Nationals. Baltimore also sent veteran reliever Matt Bowman through outright waivers; he elected free agency. Finally, the O’s selected the contract of lefty reliever Luis González. That series of moves leaves them with 37 players on the 40-man roster.

Pinto opened this past season as Tampa Bay’s starting catcher. It didn’t take long before he lost that job. He only made 19 appearances before being optioned to Triple-A Durham. Pinto spent the bulk of the year in the minors and slumped to a .191/.257/.373 line over 230 trips to the plate. His broader minor league track record is quite a bit better. The Venezuelan-born backstop is a .253/.303/.487 hitter in his Triple-A career. He owns a .231/.263/.404 slash in 237 plate appearances against big league pitching. He joins Blake Hunt on the 40-man roster as options to back up Adley Rutschman, though an external acquisition still seems likely.

Ward, 27, pitched in 26 games for the Nats last year. Washington took him out of the Boston system in the Rule 5 draft. Like many Rule 5 picks, he struggled in his debut campaign. The UCF product posted a 6.37 ERA with nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings. Washington kept him on optional assignment to Triple-A for the entire ’24 season. Ward started 28 games but allowed a 5.64 ERA over 119 2/3 frames. He walked an untenable 17% of batters faced.

Bowman bounced around the league via waivers before finishing the year in Baltimore. The sinkerballer posted a 4.40 earned run average through 30 2/3 innings between four teams. He had a strong year in Triple-A and should have no trouble landing another minor league deal this winter.

As for González, he earns a long-awaited selection to a 40-man roster. He turns 33 in January and has yet to pitch in the majors. The Dominican Republic native has pitched in Japan, Mexico and even Italy during his winding career arc. He worked his way to the Orioles on a minor league deal and tossed 60 innings of 4.50 ERA ball with Triple-A Norfolk this past season. González punched out nearly 29% of batters faced while walking fewer than 5% of opponents.

Those underlying numbers evidently impressed the Baltimore front office. Rather than allow González to hit minor league free agency, they’ll give him a spot on the 40-man for now. If he holds that all winter, there’s a good chance he’ll make his major league debut next year.

Orioles Exercise Club Option On Seranthony Domínguez, Decline Danny Coulombe

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The Orioles announced that they have exercise a club option on right-hander Seranthony Domínguez while declining their option on left-hander Danny Coulombe. They also announced that they have exercised options on left-hander Cionel Pérez and first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, as was reported earlier today. Domínguez will get $8MM next year instead of a $500K buyout. Coulombe could have been brought back for a $4MM salary but instead becomes a free agent with no buyout.

Domínguez, 30 this month, was acquired from the Phillies at the trade deadline. He went on to make 25 appearances for the O’s with a 3.97 earned run average. He struck out 28.6% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 9.2% clip.

The righty now has a 3.59 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate and 45.9% ground ball rate over his 255 career appearances. Some of that has come in leverage situations, as he has racked up 38 saves and 58 holds in his career. Given that generally solid track record, it’s not really a surprise to see the Orioles plunk down another $7.5MM to keep him from getting away.

The decision on Coulombe is a bit more surprising as the lefty has had a solid two-year run with the O’s. He has tossed 81 innings for Baltimore since the start of 2023 with a 2.56 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 45.4% ground ball rate.

$4MM for a solid lefty reliever like that seems like good value for money but Coulombe also had some challenges this year. He underwent surgery in June to remove bone chips removed from his throwing elbow. He was able to come off the IL in September, making four appearances for the club down the stretch and one in the postseason, but that seemingly wasn’t enough to convince the O’s to keep him around for next year.

They could circle back to him in free agency but Coulombe will have a chance to speak to all of the other clubs as well. The fact that he’s now 35 and coming off an injury-marred season will hurt his earning power but his results over the past two years will work in his favor.

Orioles Exercise Club Options On Ryan O’Hearn, Cionel Perez

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The Orioles have picked up their $2.2MM club option on the services of left-hander Cionel Perez for the 2025 season, according to Francys Romero. Baltimore would’ve still had Perez under team control for 2025 via arbitration even if the option had been declined. They’ve also picked up their $8MM option on the services of first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, as first reported by Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Both will return to the club in 2025.

Whether or not the Orioles would pick up Perez’s option appeared to be a close call given that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a $2.1MM salary for the left-hander in his penultimate trip through arbitration. That comes in slightly lower than the figure Perez will now earn in 2025. It’s possible Baltimore’s own internal view of Perez’s likely arbitration salary came in a touch higher than MLBTR’s, although the Orioles’ decision may be as simple as not wanting to decline the option and risk an arbitration hearing with the southpaw over just $100K.

That there was any sort of decision to be made regarding the option would’ve registered as something of a surprise headed into the 2024 season. Entering this year, Perez had been among the club’s very best relievers over his two years in Baltimore. From 2022 to ’23, Perez dominated to the tune of a 2.43 ERA in 111 innings of work. That fantastic ERA was somewhat belied by higher 3.30 FIP thanks to Perez’s lackluster strikeout (20.6%) and walk (10%) rates over the past two years, but the lefty made up for that by generating grounders at an excellent 56.2% rate.

Unfortunately, Perez took a major step backwards in 2024 when it came to run prevention as his ERA ballooned to 4.53. With that being said, his peripherals remained remarkably similar to his previous successful seasons with the Orioles. His 11.8% walk rate was elevated and his 19.3% strikeout rate was just a tick lower than those previous figures, but the lefty maintained a strong 55.8% groundball rate and wound up with a 3.30 FIP that was identical to his average over the prior two seasons. Of course, it’s worth noting that Perez’s FIP is somewhat deflated by the fact that Perez managed to give up zero home runs during the 2024 campaign. While the lefty has typically been excellent at limiting hard contact throughout his career, it’s worth noting that his homerless season came in spite of a nearly doubled barrel rate relative to 2023.

Overall, Perez seems likely to remain with the Orioles as a solid lefty relief option, though perhaps not one they’ll be interested in offering high leverage duties to until and unless he can bring his strikeout and walk ratios closer to the 23.5% and 9% figures he flashed during his dominant 2022 campaign. The Orioles notably declined their club option on fellow lefty Danny Coulombe today, making Perez all the more valuable as he joins Keegan Akin and Gregory Soto as lefty options in 2025.

Turning to O’Hearn, the decision to pick his option up doesn’t register as much of a surprise given his excellent performance since first donning an Orioles uniform. The 31-year-old just wrapped up his second season with Baltimore and carries an overall slash line of .275/.329/.450 (119 wRC+), though even that slash line may be selling his growth with the club short as he massively improved his plate discipline in 2024. After striking out at a 22.3% clip and walking just 4.1% of the time in 2023, this year O’Hearn took free passes at an excellent 9.3% clip while striking out just 14% of the time. A small step back in the power department meant his wRC+ was largely unchanged from the year prior, but underlying metrics such as xwOBA viewed O’Hearn’s work in 2024 as a substantial improvement over his first season with the club.

As impressive as O’Hearn’s evolution in Baltimore has been, there do remain questions about his fit on the club’s roster entering next year. While Anthony Santander’s likely departure in free agency will open up some playing time in the corner/DH mix, the Orioles have already at times struggled to juggle playing time for O’Hearn and fellow first baseman Ryan Mountcastle when both are healthy in previous seasons. Looking ahead to 2025, they’ll be searching for ways to include Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad in the lineup more regularly, and either player could take up the lion’s share of playing time at DH with Mayo in particular even standing as a possible inclusion in the club’s first base mix as well. A trade of Mountcastle, one of the prospects, or even O’Hearn himself could help to clear up the clubs log jam at the position, and it would hardly be a surprise if the club decided to do so in order to upgrade a rotation facing plenty of questions headed into 2025 following the departure of Corbin Burnes and elbow surgery that will sideline Kyle Bradish for the start of next season.

Orioles Decline Club Option On Eloy Jiménez

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The Orioles announced that they have declined their club option on outfielder/designated hitter Eloy Jiménez. They could have retained him for 2025 with a salary of $16.5MM but will instead give him a $3MM buyout and send him to free agency. The Sox are covering half of that buyout as part of the trade that sent him to Baltimore this summer.

The decision is an unsurprising one. Jiménez has occasionally been a potent slugger but the injuries have piled up in recent years and he just wrapped up the worst season of his career. The Orioles acquired him from the White Sox at the deadline, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with a buy-low move but it didn’t pan out. He finished the year with a .238/.289/.336 batting line and 78 wRC+.

Jiménez is one of the slower players in the league and doesn’t provide defensive value. He only spent eight innings in the field this year, none with the Orioles. Given the limited profile, he really needs to be producing at the plate in order to be useful.

That has been the case before. Through the end of 2022, he was sporting a career line of .276/.327/.504 and a 123 wRC+. He was often injured during that time but clearly a productive hitter when on the field. The Sox had given him a $43MM extension before he even made his major league debut and he seemed to be making good on that investment for a while.

In 2023, he stayed healthy enough to get into 120 games, just two shy of his career high. But the results dipped, as his .272/.317/.441 line led to a 105 wRC+. As mentioned, his performance fell even further this year. As the Sox were playing out their historically bad season this year, they flipped him to the O’s at the deadline for minor league reliever Trey McGough, covering most of the money left on the contract in order to get the deal done.

Now a free agent, some club will undoubtedly take a chance on Jiménez based on his past performance. But his poor health track record and recent struggles will limit him to a modest base salary, perhaps with incentives for him to potentially unlock if he’s able to stay healthy and return to form. He is still fairly young, turning 28 later this month, so a bounceback isn’t totally out of the question.

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