Red Sox Rumors

AL West Notes: Astros, Pivetta, Jung, Mariners, Martinez

By Mark Polishuk | September 28, 2024 at 8:37am CDT

The Astros had a “very high” amount of interest in Nick Pivetta prior to the trade deadline, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports. No deal was worked out between Houston and Boston, naturally, as the Red Sox were still in contention and opted against moving Pivetta or any other impending free agents. The Astros instead pivoted to landing Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays in what was arguably the most impactful trade of deadline season, as Kikuchi’s dominance dominance since coming to Houston has been a key factor in the Astros’ run to the AL West crown.

Pivetta made his final start of the 2024 campaign yesterday, and the right-hander finishes his eighth MLB season with a 4.14 ERA over 145 2/3 innings, as well as very strong strikeout (28.9%) and walk (6.1) rates. Pivetta’s success was limited by a propensity for allowing hard contact and a lot of home runs, but all in all, he has made a solid case for himself as he enters free agency in advance of his age-32 season. On paper, the Astros’ mix of younger arms and veteran starters returning from injury should help the team make up for the possible departures of Kikuchi and Justin Verlander in free agency, yet the “you can never have enough pitching” cliche is a persuasive counter-argument. Bolstering the group with a mid-tier option like Pivetta could be an attractive option to the Astros this winter.

Some other items from the AL West…

A CT scan on Josh Jung’s surgically-repaired right wrist revealed no structural damage, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). Jung missed most of the season after undergoing the surgery in early April, and was still bothered by some discomfort in his wrist after returning to the field in late July. The Rangers ended Jung’s season with an IL placement earlier this week, and Bochy said that the third baseman’s shutdown period will involve “complete rest for a couple of weeks and then we’ll test it and see where he’s at.” Jung hit only .248/.278/.367 in 169 plate appearances following his surgery.
The Mariners’ offense has been one of the best in baseball since Edgar Martinez assumed hitting coach duties on August 23, yet it isn’t clear if Martinez will be back in the job next season. The Seattle Times’ Adam Jude writes that the club has already started looking for a new hitting coach, though the M’s would seemingly love having Martinez return, if he is willing to take on the daily grind of a coaching role over a full season. The possibility exists that the Mariners could both hire a new top hitting coach and still retain Martinez, as Jude suggests that Martinez could stay on as a coach for just home games, in order to cut down on the travel.

Marwin González Retires

By Darragh McDonald | September 26, 2024 at 2:05pm CDT

Former big league player Marwin González announced he is retiring, through a press release from the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball, the club he’s played with for the past two years. Yahoo Japan had reported on his retirement plans prior to the official announcement.

“After two amazing years in Japan, it’s time for me to say goodbye,” González says in his statement. “I’m incredibly grateful to my teammates, coaches, and fans for welcoming me with open arms. Despite the language barrier, we formed a bond with ease, making every moment on the field special. Playing here has been a life-changing experience, especially getting to share it with my family. Japan will always hold a special place in our hearts. I’m filled with gratitude for the opportunity, the memories, and the friendships made along the way. Thank you for welcoming me into your world and for the endless support. You have all my respect. Arigatou gozaimasu.”

González, now 35, got his professional start when the Cubs signed him as an international amateur out of Venezuela and he made his minor league debut in 2006. In the 2011 Rule 5 draft, the Astros had the first pick since they were rebuilding at that time and lost 106 games that year. They used that first pick to take Rhiner Cruz from the Mets but also apparently had their eye on González. With the 23rd pick of the draft, the Red Sox took González and promptly flipped him to the Astros for Marco Duarte.

The second of those pickups ended up being far more impactful for the franchise, as Cruz tossed just 76 1/3 innings for the Astros, posting a 5.31 earned run average over the 2012 and 2013 campaigns before going into journeyman mode for the rest of his career.

González would eventually become a solid multi-positional piece for the Astros, though not right away. In 441 plate appearances over 2012 and 2013, he hit just .227/.266/.323. That production translated to a 59 wRC+, indicating he was 41% below league average. The Astros didn’t seem to mind much as they were still quite bad at that time, losing 107 and 111 games in those two seasons respectively. González was at least able to provide them defensively versatility, spending time at second base, third base and shortstop.

He was able to break out in 2014, hitting .277/.327/.400 for a wRC+ of 110. He also added first base and outfield to his defensive repertoire that year. He would continue to produce in roughly similar fashion in following seasons as the Astros emerged from their rebuild and became the perennial powerhouse that they still are today.

From 2014 to 2018, González got into 643 games for the Astros and stepped to the plate 2,265 times. He slashed .271/.328/.438 in that time for a 111 wRC+ while bouncing all around the diamond, playing everywhere except the battery.

He also got into 30 postseason games in that time, including 18 as part of the 2017 club’s World Series run, though that title is now mired in controversy with the revelation of Houston’s cheating scandal. Data from the scandal points to González as one of the biggest users of the trashcan-banging scheme. His 144 wRC+ and 4.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs that year are both easily the bests of his career, as he otherwise never topped 111 wRC+ or 1.8 fWAR. Though he later apologized for the team’s actions, the first position player on the club to do so.

He reached free agency after 2018 and signed a two-year, $21MM deal with the Twins going into 2019. His bat dipped a bit in his first year in Minnesota, at least relative to the league. His .264/.322/.414 batting line was fairly similar to his previous five years, but 2019 was the “juiced ball” season with huge offensive numbers around the league, so González’s production led to a 94 wRC+. It fell more significantly in the shortened 2020 campaign, with González slashing .211/.286/.320.

Going into 2021, the Red Sox gave him a $3MM deal, hoping that his most recent performance was just a small sample blip in the odd circumstances of the pandemic. Unfortunately, that bet didn’t pan out, as González hit .202/.281/.285 before being released in August. He then returned to the Astros but hit just .176/.222/.441 in 14 games for them down the stretch. He signed a minor league deal with the Yankees going into 2022 and got into 86 games for that club, but hit .185/.255/.321 in those.

After three consecutive rough seasons in the majors, he headed overseas. He signed with the Buffaloes going into 2023 on a deal that paid him $1.5MM. He hit .217/.266/.385 in 84 games for that club last year. He returned for 2024 but dealt with injuries and only got into 23 games, per Yakyu Cosmopolitan on X.

González will primarily be remembered for that strong run with the Astros, which will provide fond memories to some fans while others will dismiss his accomplishments due to his involvement in the electronic sign-stealing scheme.

Regardless of how one feels about that, the record books have him with 3,882 plate appearances in 1,139 major league games. He collected 888 hits, including 183 doubles and 107 home runs. He scored 420 runs and drove in 415. He slashed .252/.310/.399 for a wRC+ of 94. FanGraphs considered him to have been worth 10.9 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference credits him with 14.3 WAR. B-Ref lists his major league earnings at just over $37MM, with González likely getting that up to around $40MM with the money he made in Japan. MLBTR salutes him on his unique career and wishes him the best in whatever comes next.

Craig Breslow Talks Red Sox’s Offseason

By Anthony Franco | September 25, 2024 at 9:58pm CDT

The Red Sox lost to the Blue Jays tonight, minutes after wins by the Royals and Tigers. That officially eliminated Boston from playoff contention and turns their attention completely to the offseason. Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow met with the Boston beat before the game. While he didn’t go into too many specifics, he offered a few hints about where the Sox could turn in the winter.

Breslow pointed to the rotation, bullpen and a desire to balance a lefty-heavy lineup among the areas of focus (link via Sean McAdam of MassLive). That not coincidentally overlaps with the Sox’s impending free agents. Nick Pivetta, Tyler O’Neill, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Danny Jansen and Lucas Sims are all headed to the open market. That’s a pair of right-handed bats, one of their top starters, and multiple high-leverage relievers.

Asked about O’Neill specifically, Breslow said the Sox are “definitely interested in having some of those conversations” about a new deal (relayed by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). Boston hit on a buy-low acquisition of the slugger from the Cardinals last offseason. O’Neill leads the team with 31 home runs and sports a .240/.335/.512 slash across 469 plate appearances. He had a trio of brief injured list stints but has been one of the Sox’s best hitters when healthy. O’Neill has been a particularly key piece of maintaining some amount of lineup balance. He has obliterated lefty pitching at a .313/.429/.750 clip in 156 trips to the plate. He’s tied with Aaron Judge for second in MLB (one behind Ketel Marte) with 16 home runs off southpaws.

O’Neill is eligible for a qualifying offer. There’s a good chance the 29-year-old left fielder would accept a one-year offer worth more than $21MM. That’d be a massive jump over this year’s $5.85MM arbitration salary. The Sox may prefer a three- or four-year deal that comes at a more manageable annual rate. O’Neill’s camp will probably look to top the respective $42MM guarantees secured by Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jorge Soler last winter.

Even if they retain O’Neill, that’d leave the Sox with the same lefty-leaning lineup they trotted out this year. They’ll need more contributors via some combination of free agency, trade and internal improvement. Vaughn Grissom is one of the higher-upside righty bats already on the roster. Grissom’s first season in Boston was underwhelming, as he battled injuries and struggled for most of the year. (Chris Sale, for whom the young infielder was traded, pitching his way to the NL Cy Young in Atlanta only adds to the disappointment.)

The Sox have split time at second base between Grissom and lefty-hitting Enmanuel Valdez with the season winding down. Breslow was noncommittal on whether the 23-year-old will enter next season as the favorite at second base. “I think he’s absolutely got the potential to do that,” the chief baseball officer said of Grissom being an everyday player (via Speier). “But ultimately it’s going to be the play on the field that dictates who our everyday second base is.”

Ha-Seong Kim, who’ll also draw attention as a shortstop, and Gleyber Torres headline the free agent class at second base. Jonathan India will probably be the subject of trade speculation yet again. It seems unlikely that the Sox would devote a ton of resources to the position. That’d impede Grissom and speedster David Hamilton next season. With top shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer potentially on the radar for a 2025 debut, the keystone could be the long-term home for Trevor Story.

The pitching staff is a clearer area for free agent investment. Jansen and Martin have been two of Alex Cora’s top three leverage arms for the past couple seasons. Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten will be back in the late innings. Liam Hendriks should be healthy and could compete with Slaten for the closing job. The Sox will probably look for multiple additions to solidify the setup corps in front of that duo. A reunion with Martin wouldn’t be surprising.

A rotation built around Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and hopefully a healthy Lucas Giolito has promise. Richard Fitts has had decent results in his first four MLB starts. Pivetta has absorbed a lot of innings while flashing strikeout stuff over the past few years though. The Sox will need to replace that volume if he walks.

Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty headline the free agent rotation class. Sean Manaea, Nick Martinez, Luis Severino and old friend Nathan Eovaldi (assuming he declines a $20MM player option with Texas) are among the middle-tier starters who’d more closely mirror last winter’s Giolito pickup.

Red Sox Place Rafael Devers On 10-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | September 22, 2024 at 10:13am CDT

September 22: Cora confirmed to reporters (including McCaffrey) this morning that Devers will not require surgery, as the infielder’s MRI revealed only inflammation in his shoulders.

September 21, 2:12PM: The Red Sox made it official, shutting down Devers by placing him on the 10-day injured list due to left shoulder inflammation. Infielder/catcher Mickey Gasper was called up from Triple-A to take Devers’ spot on the active roster.

8:13AM: Rafael Devers will undergo an MRI on his bothersome right shoulder today, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters (including The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey) after yesterday’s 4-2 loss to the Twins in extra innings. Devers was removed from the game prior to the start of the 11th, and Cora said that the slugger had been trying to tough it out Friday despite tweaking his shoulder during pregame batting practice.

While Cora said “we’ll see where we’re at” following the MRI, “probably, this is it for [Devers]” this season. With just eight games remaining and the Red Sox all but officially eliminated from the playoff race, the club is likely to play it safe with the star third baseman.

Devers has been dealing with discomfort in both shoulders for a good chunk of the season, and it is fair to wonder if his determination to keep playing has contributed to his severe slump. The third baseman had an outstanding .296/.375/.587 slash line through his first 488 plate appearances, but has only a .172/.265/.212 slash line over his last 113 trips to the dish. Among all qualified batters since August 19, Devers’ 34 wRC+ is the third-worst in the league.

The Red Sox as a whole have a team wRC+ of 74 since August 19, ahead of only the lowly White Sox in that timespan. Boston had a 67-60 record as recently as August 22, but a 9-18 record over the club’s last 27 games has sunk the Fenway nine’s chances of a return to the postseason. Even though Devers’ slump dovetails pretty directly with Boston’s offensive slide, he is far from the only Red Sox hitter who hit a cold streak at exactly the wrong time.

Assuming this is indeed it for Devers’ 2024 season, he’ll still finish with a typically strong set of numbers — 28 homers and a .272/.354/.516 slash over 601 PA, with a 133 wRC+ and his third All-Star nod. Though a veteran of eight MLB seasons, Devers still doesn’t turn 28 until the end of October, and 2024 marked the first season of the ten-year, $313.5MM contract extension he signed with the Red Sox during the 2022-23 offseason. Since Devers is such a key component of Boston’s present and future plans, it’s a wise move to figure out as early as possible if Devers’ shoulder might require any kind of surgery heading into 2025.

Chris Martin Expects 2025 To Be His Final Season

By Steve Adams | September 19, 2024 at 10:11am CDT

Veteran reliever Chris Martin turned 38 in June and is a free agent at season’s end, but the Red Sox righty tells MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith that he still intends to play in 2025. Next year, however, will “95%” be his final season, per Martin himself. The towering 6’8″ righty discusses the decision at length in an interview with Smith that fans will want to read in full for a wide slate of candid quotes. Broadly, Martin cites a growing family — his wife is pregnant with their fourth child — and the increasing toll the game can take on one’s physical and mental health in the latter stages of a career for his plan to wrap things up after the ’25 campaign.

Martin has had separate IL stints in 2024 for a left (non-throwing) shoulder injury, right elbow inflammation and anxiety. He’s been effective when on the mound, posting a 3.35 ERA in 40 1/3 innings. As is typical for the big righty, he’s missed bats at an above-average level and shown off perhaps the best command in all of Major League Baseball. Martin has punched out 28.8% of his opponents and issued walks at a microscopic 1.2% clip. That’s a sensational mark even by his own lofty standards, but Martin’s career 3.2% walk rate (and 2.7% mark since 2021) has long illustrated his elite ability to locate the ball.

While Martin has lost a mile per hour off his four-seamer this season amid those injuries, he’s still checking it an average of 94.7 mph with the pitch. The slightly reduced fastball hasn’t adversely impacted him all that much; his 11% swinging-strike rate is right in line with last season’s mark, and his opponents’ 79.7% contact rate is down ever so slightly from last year’s 80% mark. If anything, his four-seamer has been more effective this year. Opponents hit .313 off the pitch and slugged .521 against it last year. Those marks are down to .241 and .389 in 2024. Martin’s sinker has been hammered by opponents this season, and he’s begun to throw it less frequently as a result (8.7% in ’24 compared to 15% in ’23). That’s contributed to a dip in ground-ball rate (51% last year, 44% this year), but the overall blend of whiffs, command and grounders remains an effective package for the nine-year big league veteran.

Notably, Martin didn’t address whether that final season would come with the Red Sox or with another club. It’d be a surprise if the Sox didn’t want him back, given how well he’s pitched under his current two-year, $17.5MM deal. He’s delivered 91 2/3 innings of 2.06 ERA ball with plus strikeout and walk rates — all while piling up 37 holds and five saves along the way.

There will, of course, be widespread interest in Martin — as one would expect based on his overall track record. He’s rattled off six straight seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA and twice posted sub-2.00 marks in that stretch. Overall, Martin has a 2.79 earned run average, 83 holds and 13 saves dating back to 2019. Given his age and current plans to call it a career after the 2025 season, one would imagine he’ll prioritize signing with a contender in hopes of adding a second World Series ring to match the one he earned with the 2021 Braves.

[Related: 2024-25 MLB Free Agent List]

Martin will have plenty of competition on the relief market, but the fact that he’ll presumably limit himself to one-year offers should create a wide array of suitors. He’ll be one of the top leverage relievers on the market. Names like David Robertson, A.J. Minter, Yimi Garcia, Andrew Kittredge and Tommy Kahnle (to name a few) have had nice seasons working primarily in a setup capacity. Kirby Yates, Carlos Estevez, Clay Holmes, Aroldis Chapman and teammate Kenley Jansen are among the impending free agents who’ve spent a notable portion of the 2024 season working as a closer.

Blue Jays Claim Tyler Heineman, Designate Brian Serven

By Darragh McDonald | September 16, 2024 at 3:55pm CDT

The Blue Jays announced that they have claimed catcher Tyler Heineman off waivers from the Red Sox. Boston had designated him for assignment a few days ago. Catcher Brian Serven has been designated for assignment by the Jays in a corresponding move.

Heineman, 33, clearly has some fans in the Toronto front office as this is his third stint with the club. He signed a minor league deal with the Jays going into 2022 and added to the club’s roster early that year, though he went to the Pirates on waivers in May of that season. In April of 2023, the Bucs designated Heineman for assignment and flipped him to the Jays for utility player Vinny Capra. That stint lasted until December of last year, when the Jays put him on waivers and lost him to the Mets.

The Mets later designated Heineman for assignment in January and flipped him to the Red Sox for cash. Heineman has served as an up-and-down depth catcher for the Sox this year, but perhaps became expendable by Boston acquiring Danny Jansen to bolster their catching depth, the same deal that opened some playing time behind the plate in Toronto.

Heineman has bounced around quite a bit in his career, never securing more than part-time work. He has appeared in five big league seasons but has just 286 plate appearances in 106 games over those. He has a combined batting line of .216/.297/.280 for a wRC+ of 66.

That’s not amazing production but his defense tends to be strong. Each of Statcast and Baseball Prospectus have given him positive grades for his framing, blocking and throwing. FanGraphs also grades him as a plus framer and lists a tally of six Defensive Runs Saved in his career.

It’s also possible that there’s a bit more in his bat, based on his numbers on the farm. From 2019 to the present, he’s hit .279/.372/.432 in the minors for a 107 wRC+, walking 11.3% of the time and striking out in just 17% of his plate appearances. That includes 51 games for Triple-A Worcester this year with Heineman posting a 14.1% walk rate, 16.1% strikeout rate, .252/.379/.403 batting line and 111 wRC+.

Perhaps the Jays see a path to Heineman providing plus defense and at least some adequate offense in the majors. He will finish this season with less than three years of service time, meaning the Jays can theoretically control him for four more years if he carves out a role as backup to Alejandro Kirk. However, Heineman will be out of options next year and will therefore be harder to keep on the roster.

To make room for Heineman, the Jays are risking losing Serven. He has appeared in 28 games for the Jays this year, mostly after the aforementioned Jansen trade opened up playing time alongside Kirk. Serven’s defensive metrics are roughly league average for the most part, but he has struck out in 31% of his plate appearances, leading to a line of .159/.243/.222 and a 38 wRC+. When combined with his earlier time with the Rockies, he has now slashed .187/.247/.293 in 299 big league plate appearances for a 43 wRC+.

The Jays will put him on waivers in the coming days. It’s possible he could attract interest based on his minor league numbers. He has hit .243/.325/.435 for an 87 wRC+ dating back to 2021. That includes a .265/.390/.379 line and 111 wRC+ in 40 Triple-A games this year. He still has one option season remaining after this one and less than two years of service time.

AL East Notes: Jansen, Yankees, LeMahieu, Webb, Mountcastle

By Mark Polishuk | September 14, 2024 at 1:29pm CDT

Kenley Jansen enjoyed ten straight years of playoff baseball before signing a two-year, $32MM free agent contract with the Red Sox during the 2022-23 offseason, and barring a late surge from Boston in the last two weeks of play, Jansen is now on pace for back-to-back without any postseason action. As he heads into free agency this winter, it therefore isn’t surprising that Jansen is “always gonna look for winning. Contending,” the closer told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo. “That’s going to be my priority…I want to be in a situation where we can contend for a title. That’s it.” This doesn’t necessarily mean Jansen wouldn’t consider a return to the Sox, as Jansen praised the team’s young talent and said he “had a blast wearing this uniform, playing for these fans.”

Even as he approaches his 37th birthday, Jansen has no plans to retire, suggesting that he’d like to pitch “at least until I’m 40-42.” There isn’t much on-field evidence that Jansen is running out of steam, as he remains an effective late-game weapon with a 3.48 ERA in 51 2/3 innings and 26 saves in 30 chances for Boston in 2024. Jansen figures to get a lot of attention in free agency this winter, and Cotillo suggests that the Yankees could look at Jansen as a potential replacement for Clay Holmes. The Red Sox and Giants were the only teams publicly linked to Jansen’s market in his prior stint as a free agent, but Cotillo writes that New York “made a serious run at Jansen before he” joined the Red Sox.

Red Sox Select Zach Penrod, Designate Tyler Heineman

By Mark Polishuk | September 14, 2024 at 9:47am CDT

The Red Sox announced five transactions this morning, including the news that left-hander Zach Penrod’s contract has been selected to the big league roster. Catcher Tyler Heineman was designated for assignment to open up a spot on the 40-man roster, and left-hander Cam Booser and right-hander Zack Kelly were both optioned to Triple-A Worcester to create space on the active roster. Boston also called up southpaw Bailey Horn from Triple-A. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe (X link) was the first to report on the Penrod, Booser, and Horn transactions, while MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo (via X) reported yesterday that Kelly was being optioned.

Kelly and Booser were two of six pitchers used by the Red Sox in Friday’s 5-4 loss to the Yankees, so today’s moves brings some fresh arms into Boston’s relief corps. For Penrod, he is now on the verge of his Major League debut, making quite a culmination of a six-year pro career that began as an undrafted free agent.

Penrod pitched briefly with the Rangers’ rookie league club in 2018 but he then spent two years on the sidelines due to both a Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. The southpaw returned to pitch in the independent Pioneer League from 2021-23, and this performance caught the eye of Red Sox scouts and led to a minor league deal partway through the 2023 season. This year, Penrod has a 4.16 ERA over 62 2/3 combined innings at Double-A and Triple-A ball, as well as a huge 34.8% strikeout rate.

There is a pretty wide variance in those minor league numbers, as Penrod posted a 2.80 ERA in 35 1/3 Double-A innings and a much heftier 5.93 ERA in 27 1/3 frames in Worcester. Control has been a bit of a question mark for Penrod throughout his career, and his walk rate also spiked up to 16.1% in Triple-A after a more palatable 9.1% number in Double-A action.

Still, the strikeouts are playing at both levels, and Penrod’s upper-90s fastball makes him an interesting bullpen weapon for the Red Sox to explore. Penrod has mostly started throughout his pro career but worked out of the pen for 10 of his 15 appearances in Worcester, so Boston figures to use him in a long relief role here at the tail end of the 2024 season. As Alex Speier of the Boston Globe explored back in May, Penrod’s development of a slider as a third pitch after his fastball and changeup could help him carve out a path as a starter, but the 27-year-old is surely pleased to work in the majors in any capacity.

The Red Sox acquired Heineman in a trade with the Mets back in February, and he has spent almost the entire season in the minors save for two games at the MLB level. Connor Wong and Reese McGuire handled most of the catching duties for the Sox this season, and after Danny Jansen was acquired at the trade deadline, McGuire was outrighed to Triple-A and Heinemen was pushed even further down the depth chart.

With his two appearances in a Red Sox uniform, Heineman has now now suited up for five different teams at the big league level over his five seasons in the Show, and he has also been organizational depth for six other franchises. Heineman has hit .216/.297/.280 over 286 career plate appearances, with 174 of those PA coming as a member of the Pirates and Blue Jays in 2022. Because Heineman has been outrighted before, he has the ability to elect free agency and reject an outright assignment from Boston if he clears DFA waivers.

Red Sox Likely To Shut Liam Hendriks Down For The Season

By Anthony Franco | September 14, 2024 at 7:10am CDT

TODAY: Hendriks will receive a cortisone shot on Monday and then resume throwing mid-week, he told the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams. While he admitted his chances of pitching may hinge on how the Red Sox are faring in the playoff race, “the door’s not closed” on Hendriks appearing on the mound in 2024. “It’s normal to have a hiccup. It’s normal having to have little things like that, but it’s frustrating at how late it happened in the process,” Hendriks said.

SEPT 12: It seems Liam Hendriks’ debut with the Red Sox will wait until 2025. Manager Alex Cora said before tonight’s extra-inning loss in the Bronx that the Sox are “probably … going to shut him down” from throwing (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive). Boston pulled the veteran reliever off his minor league rehab assignment last week when Hendriks reported arm discomfort.

The three-time All-Star has been working back from an August 2023 Tommy John surgery that ended his time with the White Sox. Cora indicated that Hendriks’ recent discomfort is on the outside of his forearm rather than in the elbow. An MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage and the team believes the issue is normal soreness related to his build-up after a long layoff.

While there doesn’t seem to be any long-term concern, the calendar doesn’t offer Hendriks time for even a minor setback. There are 17 days left in the regular season. Boston’s loss tonight dropped them 4.5 games back of the American League’s last Wild Card spot. It’s probably too risky to ask Hendriks to push through minor forearm discomfort to aid a long shot playoff chase.

Hendriks signed a two-year, $10MM free agent deal early in Spring Training. It’s a backloaded contract that follows the typical structure for a pitcher rehabbing a major arm surgery. Hendriks made $2MM this season and is set for a $6MM base salary next year. He’s guaranteed a $2MM buyout on a mutual option for 2026. The Aussie could unlock up to $10MM more via incentives next season depending on his innings and games finished totals.

The latter category would take on particular importance if Hendriks opens next season as Cora’s closer. He’d secure $1MM apiece for every fifth game finished between 45 and 65 contests. Hendriks led the American League with 38 saves for Chicago back in 2021. He saved another 37 games the next season. Hendriks would’ve filled a middle relief or setup role had he gotten back on the mound this year. The ninth inning could be there for the taking next spring.

Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin are concluding two-year deals signed when Chaim Bloom was chief baseball officer. Both pitchers have been effective, but the Sox could let them each walk in free agency. Boston reportedly tried to find a trade partner for Jansen both before Opening Day and at times in the season’s first half. It looks unlikely they’ll re-sign him. Martin seems to have a better chance of returning, but he has a lot less closing experience than Hendriks brings. Deadline acquisitions Lucas Sims and Luis García are also headed to the market.

First-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, a former reliever, has hit on a couple unheralded bullpen pickups. Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten has had an excellent rookie season and should be ticketed for high-leverage work. Greg Weissert, acquired in the Alex Verdugo deal, has been solid. There’ll surely be a few acquisitions in the offseason. Boston isn’t going to let each of Jansen, Martin, Sims and García walk without bringing in some kind of veteran help. The next few months should clarify whether Hendriks will go into 2025 as Boston’s closer.

In any case, he’ll certainly be in the late-inning mix if he stays healthy. Hendriks getting back to peak form would be a fantastic story not only for Boston but for baseball as a whole. Last year’s surgery interrupted a triumphant return to the mound after Hendriks beat non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. The ’25 season could be his opportunity to reemerge as one of the game’s best relievers.

James Paxton Planning To Retire

By Anthony Franco | September 11, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

Red Sox left-hander James Paxton plans to retire after this season, he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. The 11-year big league veteran announced the news on Bradford’s Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast (X link).

“I’m hoping that we can squeak into the postseason and I get an opportunity to pitch again. But I think, after this season, I’m going to be retiring and moving on to the next chapter,” Paxton said. The 35-year-old called it a “tough” decision because he remains confident in his ability but indicated he feels it’s the right time to “settle in at home.” Paxton told Bradford he has already gotten to work on building a company focused on addressing athletes’ mental health.

While there’s a small chance he gets back on the mound this year, it’s likely his playing career is over. Paxton tore his right calf in mid-August and was placed on the 60-day injured list last month. He’s ineligible to return until the middle of October. The Sox would need to erase a four-game deficit in the Wild Card race and likely need to make a run into at least the ALCS for Paxton to be able to get on the mound.

Injuries were an unfortunately frequent occurrence. This season was only the fifth in which he reached 100 MLB innings. Paxton was a very productive pitcher when healthy, highlighted by a four-year peak with the Mariners and Yankees at the end of the 2010s.

The Blue Jays initially drafted Paxton, a British Columbia native who’d eventually earn the “Big Maple” nickname. Toronto selected him 37th overall in the 2009 draft. The sides couldn’t agree to contract terms, however, sending the 6’4″ southpaw back to the draft the following year. Seattle selected him in the fourth round, a move that would pay off a few seasons later.

Paxton was immediately one of the M’s top pitching prospects. He got to the big leagues as a September call-up in 2013, firing 24 innings of 1.50 ERA ball. Paxton battled shoulder and finger injuries, respectively, over the following two seasons. He was limited to 13 starts in each year but managed a sub-4.00 earned run average both times. Paxton topped 100 innings and reached 20 appearances for the first time in 2016, turning in a 3.79 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning.

The following season saw Paxton emerge as an upper mid-rotation starter, at least on a rate basis. He fired 136 frames with a career-best 2.98 ERA while striking out more than 28% of opponents. Paxton continued to miss bats in bunches the following year, when he fanned 32.2% of batters faced with a 3.76 ERA across 160 1/3 innings. Among pitchers with 150+ innings, only Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole had a better strikeout rate that year.

That 2018 campaign saw Paxton log the highest workload of his career and included perhaps his two best performances. Paxton no-hit the Jays at the Rogers Centre in May 2018, becoming the second Canadian pitcher in MLB history to throw a no-hitter. That was one of two complete game victories he posted that month, though those arguably weren’t even his best outings. Paxton also struck out a personal-high 16 A’s hitters over seven scoreless innings in the start preceding his no-hitter. Overall, he struck out 51 hitters with a 1.67 ERA across 43 innings that month.

At the end of that season, the M’s traded Paxton’s final two seasons of arbitration eligibility to the Yankees for a three-player return. The headliner, Justus Sheffield, did not pan out. Erik Swanson, included as the secondary piece, developed into a productive reliever. Paxton had a strong first season in the Bronx, tossing 150 2/3 frames of 3.82 ERA ball while punching out nearly 30% of opposing hitters. He started a trio of postseason games for a Yankee team that lost to the Astros in the ALCS. Barring a surprise run from this year’s Sox, those were the only playoff appearances of his career. Paxton fanned 20 while allowing five runs in 13 innings (3.46 ERA).

That was Paxton’s final full season. He sustained a flexor strain during the shortened 2020 season, limiting him to five starts in his walk year. The Mariners brought him back during his first free agent trip on a buy-low $8.5MM deal. Paxton pitched once before his elbow blew out. He underwent Tommy John surgery and wouldn’t pitch again until 2023.

Paxton made 19 starts and logged 96 innings for the Red Sox last season, the second year of a $10MM free agent deal. He returned to the open market and signed with the Dodgers on a contract that eventually paid him $13MM after he hit certain start bonuses. L.A. squeezed him off the roster just before the trade deadline and flipped him back to Boston. Paxton made three starts for the Sox before suffering the calf injury. He’ll finish the year with a 4.40 ERA across 100 1/3 innings between the two clubs.

While the injuries kept Paxton a bit below 1000 innings, he finishes his career with a solid 3.77 earned run average. Paxton recorded his 1000th strikeout against former teammate Justin Turner on July 30. He made 177 appearances, all starts, and compiled a 73-41 record with a pair of complete games. Paxton’s one shutout was a memorable one — the aforementioned no-hitter in his home country. Baseball Reference credits him with roughly 14 wins above replacement, while he was worth 19 WAR at FanGraphs. B-Ref calculates his earnings at nearly $50MM. MLBTR congratulates Paxton on a fine career and sends our best wishes on his worthwhile endeavor to help athletes with their mental health.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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