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Latest On Masahiro Tanaka

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3:07pm: John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle hears that Tanaka's initial preferred cities are Los Angeles, New York and Boston (Twitter link).

Meanwhile, Nightengale softens his stance in a pair of new tweets, noting that the Dodgers confirmed their interest but don't want to spend "wildly" or do anything crazy with their bid in order to land Tanaka.

1:04pm: While team president Stan Kasten said in a radio interview yesterday not to predict the Dodgers to land Masahiro Tanaka, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter) that the Dodgers have made it known that they will go "all out" to sign the Japanese ace and "certainly won't be outbid."

Of course, because of the new posting agreement between Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball, signing Tanaka is no longer simply a matter of outbidding your opponents. Any team that wishes to pay the $20MM posting fee can negotiate with Tanaka as if he were a free agent, and the team would only lose that $20MM if an agreement between the two sides were to be reached. In other words, virtually any team in the Majors can afford to negotiate with Tanaka, and he could have preferences beyond signing for top dollar.

We've heard a great number of teams connected to Tanaka over the past two days, as the right-hander is in Los Angeles at this time meeting with teams face-to-face. In the past 24 hours alone, the Yankees, Diamondbacks, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, White Sox, Blue Jays and Indians have all been linked to Tanaka.

Adding Tanaka to the mix would give the Dodgers a potentially unrivaled rotation in terms of dominance, as he would join Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-jin Ryu and Dan Haren. The addition of Tanaka would seem to push Josh Beckett and Chad Billingsley out of the picture for the Dodgers, though both dealt with injuries in 2013. Billingsley isn't expected back until summer after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Red Sox Notes: Tanaka, Starters, Drew, Ortiz

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Red Sox GM Ben Cherington covered a host of topics an interview with WEEI.com's Alex Speier and Rob Bradford (all links to Speier's Twitter feed unless otherwise noted). The full interview can be heard here, but here are some of the highlights, and the latest out of Boston:

  • As noted earlier this evening, Cherington indicated that the Red Sox have yet to schedule a meeting with Masahiro Tanaka and agent Casey Close. The Boston GM left the impression that, after some preliminary chats, both team and player were still guaging whether more serious discussions were warranted. Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com has more of Cherington's comments regarding Tanaka.
  • Meanwhile, Tanaka is holding up the potential trade market for Boston's arguable excess of starting pitching, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. But interest could pick up in the Sox' arms once Tanaka and the other top starters exit the open market, MacPherson reasons, since most teams in baseball still having plenty of room to upgrade their rotations.
  • The Sox have "kept the dialogue going" with shortstop Stephen Drew over the off-season, Cherington said. But the sides have not talked since the holidays, he noted. With Drew seemingly finding it hard to land a multi-year offer, and internal options already in the fold in Boston, Cherington has enviable leverage.
  • Meanwhile, Cherington said that the team will "probably" have some discussions with DH David Ortiz about a contract extension during the coming year. "When someone like that expresses their strong interest in staying, that's a good thing," said Cherington. "We want him to finish his career as a Red Sox." We heard last month that Ortiz was interested in exploring an extension. The 38-year-old Relativity Baseball client is in the second and final year of the $26MM contract he inked back in November of 2012. 

Masahiro Tanaka Rumors: Thursday

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With the courting of Japanese starter Masahiro Tanaka now firmly underway, here is the latest on the top remaining free agent (in the estimation of MLBTR's Tim Dierkes):

  • Tanaka is in Los Angeles not only to meet with clubs, but to undergo a physical, reports Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times. Tanaka will have his physical on Thursday and release the results to interested clubs. With a sizeable workload already under Tanaka's belt at age 25, says Dilbeck, agent Casey Close may be looking to get out in front of any health concerns.
  • After Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said yesterday that discussions were in the "feeling-out" stage, president Stan Kasten further discussed the team's interest in Tanaka today in an interview with Mark Willard and Ben Lyons of ESPNLA 710, writes Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com. "You can be assured we'll investigate everything and, if there's a way that it made sense, I'm sure we would consider it," said Kasten. "But I wouldn't predict it, I wouldn't hang our hat on it, because I think the team we have right now in place is ready to go to spring training, ready to start the season and ready to compete and win."
  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers also discussed Tanaka from his club's perspective, indicating to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he anticipates a chance to meet with Tanaka and his camp. "They've been good through the process," Towers said in reference to Tanaka and Close. "I'm sure they've dealt with us the same way they've dealt with other clubs." Towers also addressed the issue of whether Arizona could compete with other teams that may have greater financial flexibility. "We don't know if it's about dollars or location or the chance to be competitive," said Towers. "Nobody has really met with him so I don't think any of us have any idea. … If they come out and say it's going to be the club that spends the most money on him, then we're probably not the front-runner. But everything right now is pure speculation by the media." The D-Backs' top baseball man declined to disclose his sales pitch, but did say that his organization has "spent a great deal of time putting together what our plan of attack is and what our selling points are."
  • The White Sox have issued a statement confirming that club representatives met with Tanaka and his camp today, Scott Merkin of MLB.com was among those to report (through a series of Twitter links). GM Rick Hahn was joined by executive VP Ken Williams and manager Robin Ventura for a meeting that was, in Hahn's words, "exploratory in nature."
  • Meanwhile, the Red Sox have been in touch with Close, GM Ben Cherington told WEEI.com in a radio interview today. As WEEI.com's Alex Speier tweets, Cherington said that "we'll see how it plays out" as to whether the club ultimately meets with Tanaka and company.
  • The details of the negotation process could have a major role in where Tanaka ultimately ends up, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explores in a series of tweets. For instance, the Diamondbacks have a scout who played with Tanaka in Japan, while Angels executive Hal Morris played ball with Close in college. While such advantages may be minor, Rosenthal says that clubs are looking for any edge.
  • The precise structure of the deal could also be highly variable, says Rosenthal, and may well include creative contract terms. Rosenthal cites Close's utilization of an opt-out clause in the Zack Greinke deal, and proposal to include a similar clause in a Clayton Kershaw extension. An opt-out clause or even a massive AAV over a shorter term would not be surprising, according to Rosenthal.

Earlier Updates

  • Tanaka arrived in the United States to begin meeting with Major League clubs, tweets David Waldstein of the New York Times. Tanaka was originally planning on flying into Chicago, but an NL official tells Waldstein that weather caused him to fly into Los Angeles instead.
  • Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that Tanaka's camp could meet with as many as a dozen by Friday. According to Heyman, the Dodgers, Cubs, and Yankees (in addition to the above-noted Angels, White Sox, and Diamondbacks) all have meetings set. The Blue Jays have also had multiple conversations with Tanaka's camp already, he adds, but it's unclear if they have a face-to-face meeting set in Los Angeles. Heyman reports that Tanaka began meetings yesterday and could meet with five to six teams per day.
  • We also learned additional details on the payment schedule for the posting fee that will be owed by whatever team ultimately lands Tanaka.

Jeff Todd contributed to this post.

 

Quick Hits: Boras, Drew, Red Sox, Orioles

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In an interview with Peter Gammons, Scott Boras expressed his confidence that Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales will find good contracts with teams that will put more value on their contributions than the value of (possibly second- or third-round) draft picks.  With that said, Boras also believes the free agent system needs to be changed to give players more freedom and to encourage teams to spend.  “We should be doing everything possible to try to get smaller market teams the necessary veteran leadership to contend,” Boras said.  His suggestions include banning qualifying offers for players over 30 years old, and a monetary compensation system for teams who lose free agents under age-30 that the clubs can re-invest in signings or draft spending.

Here's some more from around the baseball world…

  • An executive on a team that explored signing Stephen Drew told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News yesterday that Drew's medicals were raising some concerns.  Another source tells WEEI.com's Rob Bradford today (Twitter link) that Drew is "perfectly healthy.  No physical issues."
  • The Red Sox are looking to add outfield depth, Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com reports, and Scott Podsednik is one name on Boston's current long list of external candidates.  Ryan Gleichowski, Podsednik's agent, recently told Mastrodonato that Podsednik was in shape and eager to continue his career after sitting out the 2013 season.  We also recently heard that the Sox have some interest in Padres outfielder Chris Denorfia.
  • The Red Sox will have an estimated $96MM coming off the books following the 2014 seasons, WEEI.com's Alex Speier writes, leaving the team with lots of flexibility to re-sign David Ortiz and/or Jon Lester, as well as explore new player acquisitions.
  • The Orioles seem to be using a "stars and scrubs" strategy in building their team, Fangraphs' Dave Cameron writes, and the tactic doesn't seem to be working given the clear holes on the roster and their relatively limited payroll space.
  • Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal reports (subscription required) that Dan Lozano's MVP Sports Group has hired former Dodgers director of Asian operations Acey Kohrogi to serve as the firm's head of Asian operations.  Kohrogi spent 18 years with the Dodgers and helped them attract the likes of Hideo Nomo, Takashi Saito, Hiroki Kuroda, Chan Ho Park and Hong-Chih Kuo to the Major Leagues.
  • The Phillies' new 25-year, $2.5 billion TV contract will theoretically pay them an average of $100MM per year, though David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News crunches the numbers to explain how that $100MM average will actually work out to a much smaller annual payout.  MLBTR's Jeff Todd also recently examined the Phillies' TV deal and noted that the contract could just help the team continue its high-spending ways, rather than allow them to raise payroll even more.
  • The Giants' bullpen and the Blue Jays' second base platoon project as the worst positions on contending teams, according to Fangraphs' Jeff Sullivan.  The Giants' pen projects as below-replacement level as a group thanks to several pitchers that could be declining, while the Jays' Maicer Izturis/Ryan Goins platoon stands out as a weak spot.  The Dodgers' second base spot also technically makes Sullivan's list, though he says that's only due to a lack of information about the newly-signed Alexander Guerrero.

Quick Hits: Coleman, Rockies, Red Sox

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Broadcaster Jerry Coleman has died, the Padres have announced (on Twitter). He was 89. Coleman suffered a fall in early December and had been in and out of the hospital since then, Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. As a player, Coleman debuted with the Yankees in 1949 and played for them until the end of his career in 1957. He also served in World War II and the Korean War. Coleman began his broadcasting career in 1960, calling games for the Yankees and Angels before settling in with the Padres beginning in 1972. He managed the Padres for one year, in 1980, but was better known as a broadcaster, winning the Ford C. Frick award in 2005. Here are more notes from around baseball.

  • The Rockies are not interested in free-agent infielder Jamey Carroll, Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports (on Sulia). Now that they've traded Jonathan Herrera, the Rockies intend to have Josh Rutledge and Charlie Culberson compete for their utility infielder job.
  • The Red Sox have a number of starting pitching prospects on the verge of being able to contribute in the big leagues, and they'll need to have a plan to find Major League roles for them, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald writes. That could be tricky because of their sheer number (they include Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman, Matt Barnes, Drake Britton and Henry Owens) and because young starters often have "hiccups," as GM Ben Cherington describes it. Nonetheless, the Red Sox do not currently seem to have plans to trade anyone currently in their rotation. Instead, they want to preserve their depth in case there are injuries.
  • A variety of current and former big-league front-office types with Western Pennsylvania roots meet every December in Pittsburgh, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports. Attendees have included Pirates president Frank Coonelly, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik, Marlins assistant GM Mike Berger, Indians senior director of scouting operations John Mirabelli, Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava, former Pirates GM Dave Littlefield, Royals special assistant Tim Conroy and Pirates national scouting supervisor Jack Bowen. "It's open to anyone in the area with even a loose affiliation to major league baseball," says Berger. "It's neat to see the different guys who roll in, from part-time scouts to team officials, young guys just getting their start, interns. You'd be surprised how many of us call Pittsburgh home."

AL Notes: Indians, Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Jays

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The Indians have had a quiet offseason thus far, with December's one-year pact with John Axford and a trade that netted them reliever Josh Outman in exchange for Drew Stubbs being their biggest moves. In a reader mailbag column, Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer writes that the Tribe's estimated 2013 attendance figure of 1.6 million — second-to-last in the majors — could be a factor in the club's quiet offseason. Fans might see more activity from the Cleveland front office if attendance returned to the 2.5 million to 3 million range that the Indians formerly drew, Hoynes says. Here's more from around the American League:

  • Jeff Sullivan examined the importance of rotation depth in a piece for Fangraphs. In 2013, teams got an average of 32 starts from pitchers who didn't rank among their top-five most heavily used starters. Sullivan notes that a pitcher like Ryan Dempster, who's been the subject of trade discussions as the odd man out in the Red Sox rotation, could end up being valuable for Boston when one factors in expected rates of starter attrition.
  • A trip to the postseason can exhaust a pitcher, former Cy Young Award-winner Orel Hershiser tells Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Red Sox pitchers Jon Lester and Koji Uehara each reached career highs in innings as they continued to throw into October last season. Lauber reports that Red Sox personnel have urged some of the club's pitchers to alter their offseason routines because of the higher workloads.
  • The Boston Herald's John Tomase sizes up the Red Sox's AL East competitors now that several have brought in new talent.
  • Yesterday, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com listed the six worst contracts on the books for the Yankees. Today, he named Brett Gardner (arbitration eligible), Alfonso Soriano (one year with the Cubs paying all but $5MM of his 2014 salary), David Robertson (arbitration eligible), Ivan Nova (arbitration eligible), Hiroki Kuroda (one year, $16MM), and Brian McCann (five years, $85MM) as the team's best bargains. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects arbitration salaries of $4MM for Gardner, $5.5MM for Robertson, and $2.8MM for Nova. 
  • It's time for the Orioles to spend, and starting pitching stands out as the team's greatest area of need, CBS Sports' Dayn Perry writes. Signing Masahiro Tanaka would provide the club with a front-of-the-rotation arm as it prepares for another grueling season in the AL East. Kendrys Morales is also a good fit for the Orioles' DH slot, Perry opines.
  • The Blue Jays have been quiet so far this offseason, but Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star sees five reasons for being optimistic about 2014.

Edward Creech contributed to this post.

Cafardo On Red Sox, Denorfia, Cruz, Kemp

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there were two disasters in the city of Toronto last year: mayor Rob Ford and the Blue Jays.  Despite the high expectations, the Blue Jays fell flat and they'll have to rally back this season to re-energize their fan base.  The Blue Jays are at a disadvantage, Cafardo writes, because players aren't always open to playing north of the border and tend not to realize how great it is until they're there.  More from this week's column.. 

  • The Brewers need a first baseman and Mike Carp of the Red Sox appears to be a good fit.  Whether Boston would deal him remains to be seen, however, as they enjoyed his off-the-bench contributions last season.  Carp has shown that he can play every day but he won’t get that opportunity with the Red Sox unless there’s an injury to Mike Napoli. 
  • While the Red Sox don’t believe they can carry another outfielder, they have expressed some interest in the Padres' Chris Denorfia, a righthanded bat with a little power who can play center field.  The Red Sox might be able to swing a move like this, Cafardo writes, if they deal Carp or Daniel Nava somewhere.
  • A few general managers think that a one-year pillow contract would make sense for free agent outfielder Nelson Cruz.  It seems that he needs to reestablish his value and if he'd do a one-year pact, it could open more opportunities for him with clubs like the Mariners, Mets, Blue Jays, Orioles, and others.  The 33-year-old remains one of the best power hitters out there, but teams are wary about PED guys after they’re off the stuff.
  • Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp could still be trade bait as he starts to show what he can do in spring training.  Said one scout familiar with Kemp, “I think he’s going to be a guy who will be OK this year, but you’ll get the best of Kemp the following year as he’s recovered completely from the ankle.”
  • The Reds have been very quiet this offseason, but Homer Bailey’s name has come up quite often as possible trade bait.  In fact, they could possibly bring back Bronson Arroyo if they can deal Bailey.

East Notes: Braves, Rays, Berry, Red Sox

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With an unfavorable TV deal, the Braves are becoming the Rays, SB Nation's Grant Brisbee argues. That's a bit hyperbolic, as Brisbee acknowledges, but the Braves' payroll has fallen from third in the big leagues in 2000 to 16th in 2013, because their payroll hasn't really risen since then, while it has for most other teams. That's a trend that could continue, unless the Braves' new stadium dramatically changes their fortunes. That means they have to rely more on making smart moves than on spending money. Here's more from around the East divisions.

  • James Loney says the Rays, Brewers, Pirates and Astros all made him similar offers, Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune tweets. "I felt [Tampa Bay] was going to be the best option and this is where I wanted to be," Loney says.
  • If the Rays keep David Price in 2014, they will have a higher payroll than they had in 2010, when it was $72.8MM, Mooney reports. That's not a sustainable figure in the long term, Rays GM Andrew Friedman says, but the team has a chance to be "great" in 2014 (Twitter links).
  • The Orioles are still interested in re-signing Francisco Rodriguez, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. The Orioles could then use him as a backup plan at closer in case Tommy Hunter struggles. Fernando Rodney might cost too much for them, Kubatko suggests.
  • Orioles executive Dan Duquette says newly-acquired outfielder Quintin Berry is a strong defensive outfielder and "he's shown good on-base capability, particularly against RH pitching," Kubatko tweets.
  • It's not likely the Red Sox will sign or trade a starting pitcher before the beginning of spring training, tweets Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald writes. Boston currently has a solid set of starting pitching options in Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, Jake Peavy, Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubront, plus Brandon Workman, Allen Webster and others. Lauber's tweet suggests the Red Sox will not attempt to trade someone like Lackey, and they will not sign Masahiro Tanaka.

The Teams That Could Use Stephen Drew The Most

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Agent Scott Boras has a quality starting shortstop on his hands in free agent Stephen Drew.  Drew, 31 in March, bears the stigma of costing a draft pick to sign.  But in 2013 for the Red Sox, he hit .253/.333/.443 in 501 plate appearances and was worth 3.4 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs.  That tied for eighth-best in baseball among shortstops.

If you are a believer in projection systems, Drew will not be a top ten shortstop in 2014.  Using an average of projected 2014 WAR from Steamer, Oliver, and where available, ZiPS (all from FanGraphs), Drew ranks 23rd among starting shortstops with 2.0.  Starlin Castro and Jose Iglesias rank below Drew, but they are close enough that he wouldn't be a clear upgrade.  We're left with six starting shortstops on whom Drew would be an upgrade, based on these projections: Jonathan Villar of the Astros, Derek Jeter of the Yankees, Ruben Tejada of the Mets, Pedro Florimon of the Twins, Alcides Escobar of the Royals, and Adeiny Hechavarria of the Marlins.  Let's look at each situation individually.

  • Astros: The Astros want to see what Villar, 23 in May, can do over the course of a full season.  The Astros viewed the outfield as a place to potentially add a hitter, so they acquired Dexter Fowler in December.  They also picked up first baseman/left fielder Jesus Guzman in another trade that month.  For the Astros to displace Villar and give up the #33 pick in the draft, Drew would have to come at an extreme bargain.  The Astros do not look like a fit, even if Drew would give them an extra win in 2014.
  • Yankees: GM Brian Cashman told Peter Gammons in late December his team won't be signing Drew, which is a fairly rare comment on a specific free agent.  Drew would only cost the #53 pick in the draft.  But even if it makes some sense in a spreadsheet, adding him as insurance for Jeter could be controversial.  Plus, the Yankees made a large commitment to Jeter and have more pressing needs right now.
  • Mets: One rival GM thinks the Mets are feigning disinterest in Drew, according to Gammons, as he would be an upgrade on Tejada.  Drew makes a ton of sense for the Mets, who would only have to surrender the #82 draft pick.  The Mets are by far the best match for Drew.
  • Twins: The Twins have spent $86.75MM on four free agents so far this winter, with 97% of that going toward pitching.  Their draft pick cost would be #43, and I don't see why they wouldn't give Drew serious consideration.  However, they seem set with Florimon.
  • Royals: The Royals have spent big on free agents Omar Infante and Jason Vargas this winter, but don't seem interested in upgrading on Escobar even if they could afford Drew.
  • Marlins: The Marlins have added four position players through free agency this winter, but they seem set with Hechavarria manning shortstop for years to come.

What about Drew's old team, the Red Sox?  He may have less than 100 big league plate appearances to his name, but 21-year-old phenom Xander Bogaerts projects to be better than Drew in 2014.  Re-signing Drew would mean not receiving a supplemental first round pick for losing him, so there is a cost in that regard.  Drew makes sense if the Red Sox are wary of using Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks as their starters on the left side of the infield, though.

It seems the Mets and Boras will continue to play chicken regarding Drew, but GM Sandy Alderson does have the upper hand in that no other suitor is emerging.  It seems to be the right time for a Mystery Team to step in.  One Hail Mary option for Boras could be to market Drew as a potential second or third baseman in 2014, for teams with entrenched shortstops.  Once again, Boras is tasked with pulling a rabbit out of his hat on a free agent client.  

AL East Links: Baldelli, Fuld, Yankees, Lackey

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Rocco Baldelli was forced into premature retirement at age 29, but the former Rays outfielder has adjusted well to his post-playing career.  As MLB.com's Bill Chastain relates, Baldelli is acting as something of a jack-of-all-trades as a special assistant in the Rays' baseball operations department, helping the club with everything from scouting to draft preparation to Spring Training work.  "I get to see everything. I really enjoy gaining a perspective on everything we're doing. … It gives you a big picture view, and during the year I get the micro view of the organization," Baldelli said.

Here's some news from around the AL East…

  • Sam Fuld is keeping the Rays in "the mix" as he decides his next contract, the outfielder tells Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times.  "Would definitely be nice to be back if the opportunity is right," Fuld said, adding that he is "just waiting for the landscape to clear a bit."  MLBTR's Zach Links reported last week that Fuld has been offered minor league deals from five teams, some of which have already been ruled out.
  • The Yankees' plan to drastically overspend on the 2014-15 international free agent market is further explored by Scout.com's Kiley McDaniel, who explains why the Yankees are making this splash now and how they're exploiting this loophole in what McDaniel believes is a "broken" international spending system.
  • There has been some speculation that the Red Sox could trade John Lackey, as the team is looking to move a veteran starter to make room for a younger arm.  Trading Lackey would definitely be a sell-high move for Boston and they could command a strong return given Lackey's 2013 performance and his team-friendly contract, but MLB.com's Ian Browne doesn't "see any way the Red Sox will look to trade Lackey."  That same team-friendly deal is also a boon to the Sox, Browne notes, and "barring a stunning development," Lackey will be on the Opening Day roster.
  • In AL East news from earlier today on MLB Trade Rumors, Blue Jays manager John Gibbons' option for 2015 was guaranteed since he was still employed at the start of the calendar year, the Rays claimed southpaw Pedro Figueroa off waivers from the A's, and we shared a collection of Orioles notes.
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