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Red Sox Promote Ceddanne Rafaela

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3:55pm: The Sox have now officially announced all of these moves.

3:30pm: The Red Sox are recalling prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, per Ian Browne of MLB.com, along with infielder/outfielder David Hamilton. In corresponding moves, infielder Pablo Reyes is going on the injured list while outfielder Wilyer Abreu heads to the paternity list.

Rafaela, now 22, was signed by the Sox as an amateur out of Curaçao for a modest bonus of $10K. He has since performed well in his rise through the minor leagues and is now considered one of the club’s top prospects, though a somewhat divisive one. He has always hit well on the farm but has done so while swinging at just about everything, leading some evaluators to question whether that hyper-aggressive approach could be exploited by major league pitchers. He also began as an infielder but wasn’t considered an excellent defender there, though his move to center field a few years ago seems to have been an astute one, as he’s now considered elite at that position.

His overall prospect stock shot up in 2022, as he split his time between High-A and Double-A with a combined batting line of .299/.342/.538 and a wRC+ of 134 while spending more time in the outfield. That got him onto some top 100 prospect lists and selected to Boston’s 40-man roster in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s had another strong performance here in 2023, hitting .302/.349/.520 between Double-A and Triple-A for a wRC+ of 121.

As mentioned, there is divided opinion on Rafaela as a prospect. Baseball America doesn’t currently have him on their top 100, recently ranking him #6 in the club’s system. Kiley McDaniel recently provided a top 50 update to his prospect rankings without Rafaela making the cut. However, MLB Pipeline has him at #77 in the league, Keith Law of The Athletic recent put him at #48 and FanGraphs has him all the way up at #31.

The major question mark seems to be whether his approach at the plate will work in the big leagues. He’s drawn walks in just 105 of his 1,852 plate appearances in the minors thus far, a rate of 5.7% that’s well below the 8.5% major league average. But his overall offense is strong enough that he’ll get a chance against big league pitching.

This part of the calendar is a popular time for prospect promotions, since there’s not enough time left in the season for players to exhaust rookie eligibility. That’s significant under the new collective bargaining agreement, as players with rookie status that feature on top prospect lists can potentially earn their clubs an extra draft pick in future seasons based on awards voting.

That will be a concern for the future. For now, the club will hope Rafaela can hit the ground running and perhaps provide a jolt to finish the year, as they are currently just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. But it will also give them a chance to evaluate Rafaela prior to the offseason, with center field a bit of a question mark. Adam Duvall has spent plenty of time there but is a free agent at season’s end. Jarren Duran has had a breakout season but is getting some help from a .381 batting average on balls in play and is currently on the injured list. Abreu has been playing some center but is considered by many to be a better fit for a corner. The final weeks of the season could perhaps provide the club some more information on how their center field depth chart looks for 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

X-Rays Negative On Rafael Devers's Wrist

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  • Star Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers underwent x-rays on his wrist after being hit by a pitch during last night’s game against LA and struck from the lineup this afternoon. Fortunately, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic relays that those x-rays came back negative, per manager Alex Cora. Cora added to reporters that Devers could return to the lineup as soon as tomorrow, depending on how the slugger is feeling. That’s surely a relief for Boston, as the 26-year-old infielder is perhaps the club’s most important and consistent players. Devers is in the midst of another season right in line with his career norms; since his breakout campaign in 2019, he’s slashed .288/.351/.529 with a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 131 wRC+. In 530 trips to the plate this season, Devers has essentially replicated that line, slashing .272/.347/.516 with a 18.7% strikeout rate and a 127 wRC+.

Red Sox Among Teams Interested In Yoshinobu Yamamoto

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The Yankees are among the teams interested in star NPB pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as noted by Newsday’s Erik Boland. Boland added that the club’s director of pro scouting Matt Daley is currently in Japan and another top scout visited to watch Yamamoto pitch earlier in the year. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also notes the Yankees interest, listing them among ten teams that scouted Yamamoto’s most recent start. That list of teams includes the club’s crosstown rival Mets as well as their division rival Red Sox.

Red Sox Claim Zack Weiss From Angels

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Right-hander Zack Weiss, who was designated for assignment by the Angels earlier this week, has been claimed off waivers by the Red Sox. Both clubs announced the move, with the Red Sox adding that Weiss has been optioned to Triple-A Worcester. Righty Corey Kluber was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on Boston’s roster.

Weiss, 31, has been on the Angels’ roster just under a year now, getting added last September. Since that time, he’s been an up-and-down depth arm, getting frequently optioned to the minors. He has thrown 18 2/3 major league innings in that time with a 3.86 earned run average. He struck out 30.9% of batters faced but also walked 11.1%.

He’s spent more time this year in Triple-A, tossing 37 1/3 innings with a 6.03 ERA. He walked 14% of hitters at that level but struck out 29.2%. Those control issues pushed him off the Angels’ roster but the Red Sox will see if they can help him rein in that command and get better results. He can still be optioned for two more seasons after this one and has yet to reach one year of major league service time, meaning they can cheaply retain him for the foreseeable future as long as he continues to hold a spot on the 40-man.

Kluber’s transfer is little more than a formality since he’s already been on the injured list for more than 60 days at this point, having landed there in June due to right shoulder inflammation. He’s eligible to return whenever healthy but he was shut down in late July after experiencing a setback. There’s been no public reporting to indicate he’s close to a return and may have trouble getting back on the mound this year with just over a month left on the schedule.

Red Sox Promote Wilyer Abreu, Place Jarren Duran On Injured List

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3:35pm: The Red Sox have now made these moves official, recalling Abreu and placing Duran on the injured list. They also reinstated right-hander Tanner Houck from the IL and optioned lefty Chris Murphy.

10:37am: The Red Sox are planning to promote outfield prospect Wilyer Abreu for his Major League debut, as first reported by Augusto Cardenas. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe hears the same, reporting that Abreu will be called up to replace Jarren Duran, who’s headed to the injured list following this weekend’s toe injury.

Abreu, 24, was one of two prospects acquired in the trade sending catcher Christian Vazquez from Boston to Houston last summer. The Venezuelan-born outfielder has posted impressive numbers in Triple-A Worcester this season, slashing .274/.391/.539 with 22 homers, 11 doubles, a triple and eight stolen bases (in nine tries). Abreu has walked in an immense 16.3% of his plate appearances while striking out at a manageable 20.1% clip.

FanGraphs and MLB.com both currently rank Abreu 17th among Boston farmhands, while Baseball America tabs him 22nd. The 2023 season has seen a pronounced step forward in terms of power production for Abreu, despite garnering only average ratings on his power in most scouting reports. He’s done that while reducing his strikeout rate by six percentage points over last year’s levels, too, which creates some optimism that he could perhaps elevate his status over the generally projected fourth outfielder.

Abreu is regarded as a disciplined hitter at the plate who can be too selective at times. He runs well enough to handle all three outfield spots but posts impressive stolen-base totals more due to his baserunning acumen than standout raw speed. Abreu has spent more time in the corners than in center this year, but he has more than 1200 career innings in center and could certainly step in at the position for Duran.

As for the 26-year-old Duran, he suffered a toe injury when scaling the wall on a Gleyber Torres home run. He was slated to undergo an MRI to evaluate the extent of the injury, and it seems there was enough concern to at least require a 10-day absence.

The injury puts a halt to a breakout season for the former top prospect. Duran has appeared in 102 games for the Sox, slashing .295/.346/.482 with eight homers, 34 doubles, a pair of triples and 24 steals (in 26 tries). He’s dropped his strikeout rate for the third straight year, now sitting at 24.9% — still higher than average but nowhere close to the alarming 30.7% clip he posted in 2021-22. In doing so, he looks to have seized a long-term spot in the Boston outfield; even with some expected regression in his .381 average on balls in play, Duran’s plus speed, average power and penchant for making hard contact should allow him to remain an above-average offensive contributor. The Sox can control him for five more years beyond the current season.

Alex Cole Passes Away

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The Guardians announced that former big league outfielder Alex Cole recently passed away. He was 58 years old. The club also announced the passing of Dick Tomanek, who you can read about here.

Cole was born in Fayetteville, North Carolina in 1965. He attended the State College of Florida and was selected by the Pirates in the 11th round of the 1984 draft but didn’t sign. The next year, the Cardinals took him in the second round and he put pen to paper this time around. He climbed the minor league ladder with the Cards but was twice traded in 1990, first going to the Padres and then the Indians.

It was with that latter club that he made his major league debut, getting into 63 games in that 1990 season. He didn’t show much power, not hitting any home runs in his 256 plate appearances that year. But he produced a batting average of .300 and stole 40 bases in just 63 games.

He carved out regular playing time in the seasons to come and generally produced in a similar fashion, not providing much power but using his speed to propel himself around the basepaths. He stayed in Cleveland in 1991 before being traded to the Pirates midway through the 1992 campaign. After that season, he was selected by the Rockies in the expansion draft, becoming an inaugural member of that franchise. He would eventually reach free agency, signing with the Twins for 1994-1995 and Red Sox for 1996, which would prove to be his last season in the big leagues.

Over parts of seven seasons, Cole got into 573 major league games and made 2,012 plate appearances. He batted .280 in that time, racking up 493 hits, including 58 doubles, 26 triples and five home runs. He stole 148 bases in 207 attempts. He scored 286 runs and drove in 117.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to his family, friends and loved ones.

Triston Casas Has Arrived

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Red Sox fans have been waiting roughly a half decade to see whether 2018 first-round pick Triston Casas would eventually become a fixture in the lineup. The hulking 6’4″, 252-pound slugger was selected with the No. 26 overall pick that year and has ranked among baseball’s 100 best prospects in each of the past four offseasons according to both Baseball America and MLB.com.

As recently as this April, however, the early returns were looking questionable. Casas got a cup of coffee last season, hitting five homers and walking at a 20% clip in 95 plate appearances — but also hitting the ball on the ground at a whopping 56.8% clip. Not an ideal trait for a slow-footed slugger. Add in a sluggish start to this season, which saw Casas pare back that ground-ball rate but experience a large uptick in strikeout percentage (30.2% through 96 plate appearances), and it was hardly a promising start. Through his first 192 big league plate appearances, Casas batted .162/.319/.344 with an elite 18.8% walk rate and above-average but not elite power. He fanned in 27.2% of those plate appearances.

In the three and a half months since, however, Casas has not only turned things around — he’s emerged as a genuine middle-of-the-lineup bat — at least against right-handed pitching. In his past 301 trips to the plate, Casas has produced a mammoth .293/.379/.540 output with 16 home runs, 13 doubles and a pair of triples. His walk rate is “down” to 12.3% in that time, and he’s fanned at a 23.6% rate that’s only slightly north of the league average.

The biggest change in Casas’ first couple months of big league experience and this productive stretch has been one of passivity — or rather, lack thereof. From last year’s debut through early May this year, Casas swung at just 62.9% of the pitches he saw within the strike zone (and 40% of pitches overall). During his this streak of mashing at the plate, he’s swinging at 72.2% of pitches in the strike zone and 45.2% of the pitches he sees overall. He’s now swinging at in-zone pitches at a higher-than-average rate (league average is 68.7%) but still swinging at a lower total percentage of pitches than the league-average 47.3%. That’s because Casas is rarely enticed by pitches out of the zone; he’s chased off the plate at just a 25.6% clip — more than six percentage points beneath the 31.8% league average.

As far as the quality of Casas’ contact, it’s been excellent. He was making consistent hard contact even before his early-May turnaround began, but the increased aggression within the strike zone now just means he’s making a lot more of it. Casas has averaged 91.5 mph off the bat this season (league average is 89.1 mph) and put 46.1% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or more (league average is 39.3%). Statcast has classified 14.5% of his batted balls as “barreled” (16.1% during his peak productivity).

Granted, some of the breakout has been a function of Casas being shielded from left-handed pitching. Casas has clear platoon issues in his young career, hitting just .193/.343/.325 against southpaws versus .257/.357/.503 against righties. This season, he’s 219th in the Majors with just 77 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. The Sox haven’t completely eliminated his playing time against southpaws, but compare his total plate appearances against southpaws to fellow lefty-swinging teammates like Rafael Devers (148 plate appearances), Masataka Yoshida (123) and Alex Verdugo (140) — and it becomes clear that the Sox have at best been selective about the opportunities they’ll give him versus same-handed opposition.

Time will tell whether this year’s usage signals intent for long-term platooning or is just a means of building some confidence in the burgeoning young slugger. If the Sox want to platoon Casas moving forward, there’s at least one natural candidate down on the farm in 28-year-old Bobby Dalbec. Once a fairly heralded prospect himself, Dalbec has been squeezed out of the mix on the big league roster but responded with an outstanding .278/.384/.589 batting line and 30 homers in Triple-A this year. Against left-handed pitching, he’s posted a ludicrous .347/.438/.640 line. Dalbec’s future in Boston — he could potentially be a trade target for a club with eyes on giving him an everyday look this winter — is a topic worth diving into on its own, but suffice it to say he’s at least played his way into consideration for such a role. If not, the free agent market this offseason will feature right-handed bats like Garrett Cooper, C.J. Cron, Donovan Solano and Darin Ruf.

The Sox started Casas against southpaw MacKenzie Gore last night and left him in to face lefty reliever Jose Ferrer. (Casas went 1-for-3, singling off Ferrer.) It’s probably in their best interest to continue giving Casas opportunities against southpaws down the stretch, both to get him additional experience in left-on-left matchups and to help evaluate whether they’ll need a platoon partner for him in the long run.

Casas is still a work in progress defensively (-4 Defensive Runs Saved, -11 Outs Above Average), and it’s an open question just how productive he’ll end up being against left-handed pitching.  If he can narrow his platoon splits and/or make some strides on the defensive side of his game, he has star potential in the middle of the Red Sox lineup. He already looks the part against right-handed pitching, however, and Casas’ dedication to the science of hitting (check out his recent Q&A with FanGraphs’ David Laurila) should serve him well as he looks to become a more complete hitter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Shut Down Adalberto Mondesi Due To Continued Knee Soreness

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The Red Sox have shut infielder Adalberto Mondesí down from all baseball activities because of ongoing soreness in his left knee, skipper Alex Cora told reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive). While Boston isn’t officially declaring him down for the season, there isn’t much time for his rehab to get going in earnest.

Mondesí has unfortunately struggled to rebound from an ACL tear suffered last April. There was never any doubt that’d end his 2022 campaign but the Sox felt comfortable enough with his health to roll the dice on an offseason trade. They acquired him (and minor league infielder Angel Pierre) in a swap that sent reliever Josh Taylor to the Royals. Boston expressed hope Mondesí would be ready around Opening Day — or at least early enough in the season to help cover for Trevor Story after his elbow surgery — but it hasn’t come to pass.

The trade hasn’t worked out for either team, as Taylor’s recurring back troubles resulted in him undergoing surgery in late June. Mondesí hasn’t had to go back under the knife but his rehab has been littered with stops and starts. Cotillo writes that he’d progressed to running, hitting against live pitching, and fielding grounders before the knee pain became too much to push through.

While the ACL injury is the most significant Mondesí has faced, he has battled various health concerns throughout his career. He’d played in only around half of Kansas City’s games between 2019-21 while missing time due to groin, shoulder, hamstring and oblique problems.

When healthy, Mondesí has intrigued with elite speed, strong middle infield defensive ratings and switch-hitting power upside. An extraordinarily aggressive approach has undercut his offensive production, as he’s reached base at just a .280 clip in 358 MLB games.

There’s a growing chance he doesn’t wind up making an appearance for Boston. Story is back at shortstop, while Pablo Reyes has surprisingly become a key contributor. The 29-year-old infielder is hitting .321/.360/.443 in 115 plate appearances since being acquired in a minor league trade with the A’s in May, earning him the starting second base job of late.

Mondesí is making a $3.045MM arbitration salary. He’ll be a free agent at year’s end and could be limited to minor league offers if he doesn’t make it to the diamond this season.

Red Sox Release Dan Altavilla

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The Red Sox have released right-hander Dan Altavilla, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The righty will now head to the open market in search of his next opportunity.

Altavilla, now 30, signed a two-year minor league deal with the Sox going into last year. That was a reflection of the fact that he underwent Tommy John surgery in June of 2021 while with the Padres. He was outrighted by that club and became a free agent at season’s end but wasn’t likely to be able to provide too much in 2022, which led to the two-year deal with Boston. Such deals are somewhat common for players facing long rehabs, allowing the player to lock in some money and access team facilities while giving the club some longer control over their services.

The righty didn’t make it into any official action last year and began 2023 on the injured list as well. He finally began a rehab assignment over a month ago and made eight appearances in the minor leagues since then. He tossed 12 innings in those, allowing four earned runs for an ERA of 3.00. However, his 14.3% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate were both uninspiring in that small sample. It seems the Sox didn’t have much confidence in him providing much value to them down the stretch and have let him go.

He could still get chances elsewhere based on his pre-Tommy John track record. He made 119 appearances in the majors from 2016 to 2021, split between the Mariners and Padres. He had a 4.03 ERA in that time, with a high 12.1% walk rate but a strong 26.1% strikeout rate. He averaged around 97 mph on his fastball for much of that span and was able to touch triple digits at times. If he’s able to get himself back on track and earn a roster spot, he’ll have the potential to be retained for multiple years as his service time count is currently at four years and 63 days.

Joely Rodriguez’s Season In Jeopardy Due To Recurring Hip Pain

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Left-hander Joely Rodriguez has been shut down due to continued discomfort in his hip, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told MLB.com’s Ian Browne (Twitter link) and other reporters.  Rodriguez has already been on the 15-day injured list since July 29 due to his hip problem, and Cora acknowledged that the southpaw might have thrown his last pitch of the 2023 campaign.

It has been an injury-marred year for Rodriguez, who has tossed only 11 innings in his first season in Boston.  The lefty signed a one-year free agent deal last winter worth $2MM in guaranteed money, yet he suffered a Grade 2 oblique strain during Spring Training that delayed his season debut until May 17.  Rodriguez then missed another month due to shoulder inflammation, returning to action on July 8 and appearing in six games before his latest IL stint.

There was quite a gulf in Rodriguez’s performance in between IL visits, as he had an ugly 18.00 ERA over his five games and four innings prior to his shoulder-related injury absence.  In July, however, Rodriguez was much sharper, with seven scoreless innings and no walks over the six appearances before his hip injury sent him to the sidelines.  It works out to a 6.55 ERA for the season, and Rodriguez might not get a chance to improve on that total if his hip problem does indeed result in a permanent shutdown.

Rodriguez’s contract contains a 2024 club option worth $4.25MM, or the Red Sox can buy out that option for $500K.  Given the string of injuries, it certainly doesn’t seem like Boston will exercise that option, so Rodriguez is likely to be headed back to free agency.  Entering his age-32 season and with an injury-riddled 2023 behind him, Rodriguez may have to settle for a minor league deal or another low-guarantee MLB contract on the open market this winter, even if he can make it back for a few more innings near the end of Boston’s season.

The Sox have been looking for left-handed relief options for much of the year due to Rodriguez’s frequent absences, but it seems as though they have landed on a pair of solid lefties in Brennan Bernardino and Chris Murphy.  The bullpen as a whole got another boost today when Garrett Whitlock was activated from the 15-day IL, and Whitlock threw two scoreless innings and picked up the win in Boston’s 6-3 victory over the Tigers.

It was Whitlock’s first outing since July 3 due to a bout of right elbow inflammation, and the Sox plan to use him as a multi-inning reliever rather than a starter.  Whitlock has been much more effective as a reliever than as a starter over the last three seasons, plus the Red Sox also have Tanner Houck lined up for starting duty when Houck returns from his own IL stint.  Cora told Browne and company that Houck is slated to make one more minor league rehab start before being activated from the IL next week.

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