Red Sox Notes: Francona, Epstein, Ortiz, Papelbon
On September 3, the Red Sox had a 99.6% chance of making the postseason, according to statistican Nate Silver. The next day, Silver notes that Bill Buckner played himself on an episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm that spoofed Buckner's legendary World Series error. The Sox went 6-18 after Buckner's cameo. As Larry David himself would say, that is a prett-ay, prett-ay, prett-ay big coincidence.
Some notes from Boston as the fallout continues from the Red Sox' legendary collapse….
- Theo Epstein and Terry Francona met with the media today, and Alex Speier from WEEI had the details. Epstein said that the team had just finished an initial review of its baseball personnel and wouldn't make any decisions for a few days yet.
- Epstein said that Francona wasn't being singled out as the cause for Boston's collapse. "That would be totally irresponsible and totally short-sighted and wouldn’t recognize everything he means to the organization and to all our successes, including, at times, in 2011,” Epstein said. “So we take full responsibility for what happened, all of us. Collectively it was a failure….I’m the general manager so I take more responsibility than anybody. I don’t think we believe in – I know we don’t believe in scapegoats. In particular, no one blames Tito for what happened in September. Look, we all failed collectively."
- Epstein dismissed rumors about his connection to the Cubs' general manager's job as "just speculation."
- Francona said he wasn't yet prepared to discuss his future with the Sox, saying last night's devastating result was "still pretty fresh and pretty raw." The manager said he and Epstein would sit down within the next few days.
- Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated hears from several "baseball people" that Francona and the Sox could mutually decide to part ways. If Francona does leave, it probably won't be to the White Sox, as Heyman hears Chicago "may go younger" (both Twitter links).
- Epstein said the club would examine its process for evaluating free agents, given the failures of John Lackey, Carl Crawford and past free agents like Matt Clement and Julio Lugo. Though Lackey and Crawford struggled this season, Epstein said the team will do everything possible to get both players back up to par for 2012.
- Epstein praised the performances of David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon, saying he hopes the Sox can figure out a way to bring both pending free agents back to Boston this winter.
- Peter Gammons thinks Lackey may have to be traded for another bad contract like Barry Zito or Carlos Zambrano, reports WEEI.com's Paul Flannery. "I'm not sure John is ever going to fit in Boston again. I understand how upset he is but I think it's going to be hard for fans to warm up to him again," Gammons said. Gammons notes that other teams who suffered late-season breakdowns underwent major organizational changes, though he thinks Francona will return as manager.
- ESPN's Buster Olney looks at some key figures on the Red Sox and Braves whose status is in question in the wake of both teams' terrible Septembers. Olney thinks Lackey has to be moved, predicts changes to Boston's coaching staff and hears it's "highly unlikely" Epstein leaves, though friends of the GM say he would embrace the challenge of running the Cubs.
- Jim Donaldson of the Providence Journal thinks Epstein should take the fall for building a roster with too many holes.
Marco Scutaro’s 2012 Option
If Red Sox fans are agonizing about Marco Scutaro today, it’s probably about his baserunning in last night’s loss to the Orioles, not about his contract option for 2012 and role on next year's team. But at some point this month, the Red Sox front office will have to decide whether to retain Scutaro or let him walk in search of big name replacements or in deference to Jose Iglesias’ glove.
Scutaro’s option is more complex than most; here’s how it breaks down: Boston has a $6MM option as part of the two-year, $12.5MM deal they agreed to after the 2009 campaign. If the Red Sox don't exercise Scutaro's option, he can remain in Boston for $3MM instead of taking a $1.5MM buyout.
Earlier in the year, when Scutaro was struggling and it was easier to dream on Iglesias, there didn't appear to be much of a chance that the Red Sox would pick up their side of the option. Now that the season's over, Scutaro's numbers are impressive. He has career highs in batting average and slugging percentage for a .299/.358/.423 line in 445 plate appearances. It’s no one-year blip, either. Only seven shortstops have contributed more wins above replacement (12.7) since 2008, according to FanGraphs’ version of the statistic.
Scutaro has always had a fantastic eye for the strike zone and his disciplined approach continued this year. He had a career-best 8.1% strikeout rate, finished with more walks (38) than strikeouts (36) and only Juan Pierre swung and missed at a lower percentage of pitches (min. 400 PAs, Scutaro's contact rate was 94.7%).
Scutaro, who turns 36 this offseason, can handle shortstop, though he doesn’t have Iglesias' defensive reputation and he can contribute on offense, though he might not have the same offensive upside as Jed Lowrie. If the Red Sox decide they can do without Scutaro, they could offer him arbitration after declining his option and obtain a compensatory draft pick in 2012, assuming he turns arbitration down and signs a Major League deal with another team.
There are better MLB shortstops out there, but Scutaro’s ability to play a premium defensive position, make contact and get on base is worth a lot. He’ll have no trouble drawing interest if he hits free agency and would have a strong case for another multiyear deal on the open market (Omar Infante just got one). I expect the Red Sox to pick up the option, since Scutaro has proven to be a valuable everyday player and there’s limited risk on a one-year commitment.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Rays, Orioles
The AL East delivered two memorable games last night: the Rays overcame a 7-0 deficit with two Evan Longoria homers to beat the Yankees and the Orioles had a dramatic comeback of their own against the Red Sox. The result: the Rays play the Rangers in the ALDS and the Red Sox start preparing for the offseason. Here are some links from the division…
- Rob Bradford of WEEI.com says manager Terry Francona deserved better than this, though his decisions didn't always work out. It's unclear if the Red Sox want Francona back next year; they now have ten days to decide whether to pick up two $4.25MM options for 2012 and 2013.
- GM Theo Epstein, who admits this month has been "one for the ages," tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he and his staff were doing little things behind the scenes to stop the steady stream of losses (the Red Sox were 7-20 in September).
- It was because of Carl Crawford that the Rays initially installed low fences in the left field corner, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Crawford, who signed with the Red Sox for $142MM last offseason, missed a critical catch for Boston last night and it was Longoria who cleared the short wall with a game-winning home run.
- Orioles owner Peter Angelos, president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail and manager Buck Showalter are scheduled to meet today, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. MacPhail is expected to step down, yet there's a sense that Angelos will want MacPhail around in some capacity. Showalter appears to be torn between his current role and the possibility of becoming the GM, according to Connolly.
AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles
The Orioles host the Red Sox and the Rays host the Yankees in the 162nd game of the regular season tonight. The Red Sox and Rays are hoping that they will have advanced as the American League Wild Card team within a few hours, but there's a chance they'll have a play-in game tomorrow to determine which team gets the final playoff spot. Here's some off-field news about the AL East as Boston tries to hold off the O's and the Rays try to come back against the Yanks…
- Blue Jays manager John Farrell told MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm that improving the rotation would be his top offseason priority.
- When Joel Sherman of the New York Post asked people in the know about Terry Francona's job security, he expected to hear that the skipper had nothing to worry about, but he heard otherwise. Some say the Red Sox manager hasn't stopped his players from getting out of shape and that he has made certain players feel over-privileged. Sherman also hears that Francona feels "bulletproof" after winning two World Series and has stopped attending to some of his job's minor responsibilities.
- The Cubs have reached out to Andrew Friedman, the Rays executive VP of baseball operations, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). It's hard to imagine Friedman entertaining the idea of joining the Cubs with his club so close to the playoffs.
- Orioles manager Buck Showalter told Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com that the club hasn't reached a "firm decision" about his role next year (Twitter links). The Orioles figure to reach a decision on their complex front office situation soon.
Red Sox Will Not Acquire Starter
4:46pm: The Red Sox have given up searching for starting pitching help and they'll rely on one of their own pitchers in the event of a play-in game tomorrow, according to Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com (on Twitter).
12:17pm: ESPN's Buster Olney and CSNNE.com's Sean McAdam both find the Red Sox trading for a starter to be unlikely, to varying degrees (Twitter links). Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star hears that the Royals and Red Sox are discussing Chen, but one official calls a trade a "long shot."
10:18am: Royals lefty Bruce Chen is among Boston's trade targets as they consider acquiring a starter for a potential Thursday play-in game, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Chen is scheduled to start tonight in Minnesota as he seeks to tie his career-high of 13 wins.
Chen projects as a Type B free agent, and an arbitration offer from Kansas City is realistic. Red Sox GM Theo Epstein would have to surrender something significant to best the value of that potential draft pick, and he'd probably have to complete the trade before even knowing whether he'd need Chen for tomorrow. At most, the Red Sox would be able to use Chen for that one game, as he would not be eligible for the postseason roster. As Rosenthal notes, the lefty has already cleared waivers. The 34-year-old Chen has a 3.98 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 35.5% groundball rate on the season.
In theory, Epstein could also look at fully rested starters such as Chien-Ming Wang, Rodrigo Lopez, and Aaron Harang, though Harang also may be a Type B. If the Red Sox do not acquire a starter, they might have to use John Lackey or Tim Wakefield on three days rest should a play-in game occur Thursday at Tropicana Field. Another option might be activating Clay Buchholz, according to WEEI's Rob Bradford.
Wakefield Wants To Come Back Next Year
45-year-old knuckleballer Tim Wakefield wants to pitch an 18th season for the Red Sox next year, he told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Said Wakefield: "I've definitely made up my mind that I definitely want to come back next year. I have another goal in front of me that I'd like to accomplish, and that’s the all-time record for the Red Sox in wins. I’m only seven away. I think the fans deserve an opportunity to watch me chase that record."
With 192 victories, Roger Clemens and Cy Young share the current franchise record. Wakefield has 186 for the Sox, and 200 in total. He has a 5.12 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9, and 38.4% groundball rate in 154 2/3 innings this year, and the righty explained that his job as a a fourth or fifth starter is to give the club innings.
Quick Hits: Red Sox, Pirates, CBA
There's one day of regular season games remaining on the schedule and it's going to be a good one. The Rays and Red Sox are tied with 90-71 records and the Braves and Cardinals are tied with 89-72 records. Two of those clubs will make the playoffs as Wild Card teams and the others will be watching the postseason along with the rest of us. Here are today's links…
- The Red Sox could still acquire a starting pitcher for a possible play-in game with the Rays (it would take place Thursday). But as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com explains, the Red Sox would have to complete a deal by tomorrow night for MLB to allow it.
- Matt Kemp (NL MVP), Craig Kimbrel (NL Rookie of the Year), Jose Bautista (AL MVP), Justin Verlander (AL Cy Young) and Dustin Ackley (AL Rookie of the Year) would all win major awards this offseason if ESPN.com's Keith Law had the only vote for each honor.
- Ronny Cedeno told MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch that he hopes the Pirates exercise his $3MM option instead of buying him out for $200K. The Pirates don't have an obvious internal candidate to replace Cedeno and his .251/.299/.339 batting line.
- Tom Tango wonders if adding a salary cap would actually help small-market teams like the Pirates. If MLB implemented a salary cap, rich teams could spend more on player development and research.
- The owners are concerned that realigning MLB into two 30-team leagues would limit their ability to market interleague play, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney. No one is talking about expansion given the current issues troubling many teams, but at some point adding two clubs could be a way for owners to ensure that each league has an even number of teams.
Cubs Rumors: Epstein, Zambrano, Sandberg
ESPN's Wayne Drehs has the story of Pat Looney, the man who almost became a scapegoat for Cubs fans in 2003 instead of Steve Bartman. ESPN's Bartman film airs tonight at 7pm central time. The latest on the Cubs:
- Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is unlikely to leave Boston for the Cubs post after a "moment of epic failure," in the opinion of Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
- There's a good chance Carlos Zambrano joins Ozzie Guillen in Miami, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.
- Cubs sources expect the team to reconcile with Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg before next season, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Sandberg managed the Phillies' Triple-A club this year but is said to be open to managing the Cubs with Jim Hendry out of the picture.
- Brewers' third baseman Casey McGehee told the Sun-Times he can relate to Bryan LaHair having to shake off the 4-A label. The 28-year-old LaHair hit .331/.405/.664 with 38 home runs in 523 Triple-A plate appearances this year.
Red Sox Don’t Expect To Trade For Starter
The Red Sox could use pitching depth, but it doesn't appear that they're going to get any. GM Theo Epstein doesn't expect to be able to trade for a starting pitcher before the regular season ends, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (Twitter link).
The Red Sox expressed interest in Chris Capuano this month, but weren't able to work out a deal with the Mets. There aren't many realistic alternatives on the trade market this time of year, so it appears likely that the Red Sox will have to make do with what they have this week, when they wrap up the regular season against the Orioles at Camden Yards.
Boston's lead over the Rays in the Wild Card race has diminished to a single game, which explains Boston's interest in pitchers who would be ineligible for the postseason. Getting there will be enough of a challenge for the Red Sox, who have won just six games this month. Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard and Jon Lester are scheduled to start in Baltimore, but the team could use reinforcements, especially after playing two games, including one 14 inning contest, in the Bronx yesterday.
Cafardo’s Latest: Fielder, Orioles, Wilson, Capuano
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses player conditioning and expanded rosters in his latest column, before sharing a few notes and rumors from around the league. Here are a few highlights from the piece:
- While the Brewers have been all but ruled out of the Prince Fielder sweepstakes in some corners, Cafardo hears from big league sources that the Brew Crew may make a bid to retain their first baseman after all.
- It appears Buck Showalter will have a significant infuence on Orioles' moves and decisions going forward. If Andy MacPhail leaves the team this winter, the O's may hire someone to hold the general manager title, but have Showalter acting as the de facto GM.
- Cafardo speculates that the Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Tigers, and Cardinals could all be in on C.J. Wilson this offseason.
- "Nobody has any real answer" about why the Red Sox and Mets couldn't reach an agreement on a Chris Capuano trade. We heard earlier this week that the Sox tried to acquire Capuano to help them clinch a playoff spot, but that talks were dead.
- Although Manny Ramirez has mentioned the possibility of playing in Japan, Cafardo doesn't think a Japanese team would be willing to take on a two-time PED user.
- Cafardo has heard Bobby Valentine mentioned as a potential replacement if the Red Sox and Terry Francona part ways. Earlier today, FOX's Ken Rosenthal looked into whether or not Francona's job is in jeopardy.