AL East Notes: Bautista, Gurriels, Bruce, Snell
Blue Jays president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro spoke with the media for the first time since reports of Jose Bautista‘s staggering asking price of move than five years and $150MM, and downplayed the story to some extent, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes. “Every spring training there are contractual situations that come up,” said Shapiro. “You manage them as effectively as possible, always maintaining the focus on what we’re out here to do as a team, and to win a championship.” Shapiro went on to explain that any comments he would have regarding Bautista’s contract would be made directly to Bautista himself or to Bautista’s representation. “For me, respecting the process and the player means you don’t comment on any of those things publicly,” the longtime executive continued. As Shapiro notes, difficult decisions on franchise players nearing the expiration of their contract aren’t exactly uncharted waters for him. In his time at the helm for the Indians, Shapiro dealt with similar situations with franchise legends like Jim Thome and Omar Vizquel, he points out.
Here’s more from the AL East…
- The Red Sox will likely take a pass on Cuban brothers Yulieski Gurriel and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., reports Sean McAdam of CSN New England. The Red Sox, of course, are barred from signing the younger Gurriel, Lourdes Jr., for more than $300K after shattering their bonus pool on Yoan Moncada last offseason, but even in the absence of spending restrictions, McAdam’s source indicates that Boston wouldn’t be much of a player. The Sox have expensive veterans in the infield (Dustin Pedroia and Pablo Sandoval) plus a large array of controllable talent at shortstop (Xander Bogaerts) and in the outfield (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley and the well-compensated but unproven Rusney Castillo). As such, the team doesn’t have much room on the roster for any sort of additions in the short- or long-term at the brothers’ respective positions.
- Dexter Fowler‘s late demand of an opt-out clause from the Orioles and his subsequent decision to sign a one-year deal with the Cubs could end up being a break for the Reds, tweets Jon Heyman, as Baltimore’s focus could turn back to Jay Bruce, whose trade to the Blue Jays recently fell through due to one of the other players involved in the would-be swap.
- How would an extension work between Blake Snell – a player without service time – and the Rays? Craig Edwards of Fangraphs looked at the different possibilities.
- On Thursday, Orioles exec Dan Duquette and agent Casey Close both commented on the Fowler situation.
Analytics Notes: Red Sox, Phillies
Red Sox owner John Henry spent two months “under the hood” of the team’s analytics process late last season, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. What he found led to the hiring of Dave Dombrowski who is well regarded as a talent evaluator. Now the Red Sox are poised to pivot away from their past role as Moneyball with money.
Per Henry, “A lot of our advantage was purely financial. We were never as far toward analytics as people thought we were.” The club has spent the second most on payroll since 2002 which helped to mask a multitude of mistakes. In particular, Henry noted an overemphasis on using past performance to project future ability. That could be why the Sox were more bullish about Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval than other clubs. While those are just two of the most glaring examples, Henry says the same evaluative techniques failed up and down the roster. While it’s popular to quip that Boston should have signed Jon Lester or traded for Cole Hamels prior to 2015, there were too many problems with the roster.
During the Theo Epstein era, the Red Sox had a blend of scouting and analytics, but that balance may have been lost upon his departure, writes Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. However, the shift in strategy could be an overcorrection. In particular, Dombrowski is known for using trades of minor leaguers to bolster the major league club. He’s already executed one high profile move in acquiring Craig Kimbrel. The previous front office seemed to emphasize developing talent, with players like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Blake Swihart representing the first wave of talent.
In an interesting reversal, the Phillies are now making strides to become more analytically proficient. If the Red Sox were the team most synonymous with sabermetrics, the Phillies were usually identified as the most traditionalist club. Now the two franchises are moving in opposite directions.
Director of baseball research and development Andy Galdi will drive the analytics process in Philadelphia, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. The 30-year-old former Google and YouTube employee praised the Phillies’ recent efforts in building their PHIL computer system. Galdi also mentioned the important marriage between scouting and analytics, emphasizing that the two need to work hand and hand.
Galdi believes uncertainty is the missing piece in baseball analysis. Statistics shouldn’t be used to say a player will do X. Rather a range of possibilities should be identified with scouts helping to narrow the focus. It’s important to note that all statistics come with a margin of error. For what it’s worth, sabermetricians have emphasized the importance of error margins for years.
AL East Links: Teixeira, Orioles, Bautista
Though Mark Teixeira has been plagued by injuries in recent years, the first baseman told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) that he’s hoping to play for five more seasons. “My body feels so good, why not play until I’m 40? Being the kind of hitter I am, I can be a DH the last few years of my career, which could really prolong it. I would love to play that long,” Teixeira said, also noting that he wants to remain with the Yankees after his contract expires this winter. That could be somewhat of a tricky prospect given that New York has Greg Bird as its first baseman of the future and Alex Rodriguez in the DH role through the 2017 season. Still, Teixeira hit .255/.357/.548 with 31 homers in a fine bounce-back campaign last year, so he can shown that he can still produce if he can remain healthy. Here’s some more from around the AL East…
- The holdup in Yovani Gallardo‘s agreement has delivered a fresh round of criticism towards the Orioles and their high (perhaps overly high) standards in player physicals. As MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko observes, however, avoiding some of these contracts has often been to the club’s benefit. Many of the players the O’s opted not to sign due to health reasons proceeded to decline, either due to injury or simply subpar performance.
- An Orioles staff member also defended the team’s stance on physicals to Peter Gammons, noting that after the O’s backed out of an agreement with Grant Balfour two years ago, Balfour has since badly struggled. Despite the criticism, the Orioles “were right. Dan [Duquette] didn’t deserve the grief he took,” the staff member said. “And if this is what the doctor thinks, why would we pay Gallardo half the amount? If he’s hurt, Peter [Angelos] and Dan don’t owe him anything.” Gammons also hears from two Orioles pitchers that Gallardo’s issue is “really unfortunate” and “apparently pretty serious.”
- By setting a high and seemingly inflexible price on a contract extension, Jose Bautista has made it easy for the Blue Jays to part ways with the slugger after the season, Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star opines.
- Dave Dombrowski has shown a willingness to cut ties with underperforming players regardless of contract status, as the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier recalls the Tigers’ 2003 release of Damion Easley when Dombrowski was Detroit’s general manager. Now that Dombrowski is in charge of the Red Sox, his presence could put added pressure on 2015 struggles such as Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Rick Porcello and Rusney Castillo to improve. (Though with the obvious caveat that eating any of those contracts would cost Boston much more than it cost Detroit to part ways with Easley.)
AL East Notes: Vazquez, Rays, O’s, Marmol, Shreve
Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez seems to be ahead of schedule in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, writes WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Vazquez tells Bradford that he had a scare last week when he felt some discomfort in his surgically repaired right elbow, but the doctors informed him that it stemmed from muscle pain and scar tissue as opposed to any sort of notable setback in his recovery. Vazquez is already throwing to bases from behind the plate, though Bradford notes that it’s unclear if he’ll be ready for game action when games kick off on Feb. 29. Here’s some more from around the AL East…
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that the Rays‘ focus on adding bats this winter will not only help the offense, but also help the pitching staff and bullpen by theoretically sparing them from so many close games. “When we’re playing in one-run games every night, it’s tough. It’s tough to piece together the innings and make sure that we keep everyone fresh,” president of baseball operations Matt Silverman said.
- There’s no reason to worry about Yovani Gallardo passing his physical with the Orioles, based on what Eduardo Encina of The Baltimore Sun hears. Encina also points out that though Gallardo turns 30 later this month, the righty has a strong track record of durability. Gallardo’s physical is said to have taken place around noon today, so the deal could potentially be finalized and formally announced by the team at some point this afternoon.
- The Orioles have been heavily connected to Dexter Fowler, though they’re also looking at other position player options, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. Pedro Alvarez, who was rumored as a Baltimore target earlier this offseason, is still being considered by the team.
- The Red Sox believe that Carlos Marmol can be a relief force again after correcting a flaw in his delivery, WEEI.com’s John Tomase writes. Marmol’s already-shaky control was worsened by a high arm slot over the last two years, as observed by Boston director of pitching analysis and development Brian Bannister. If this theory is correct and Marmol can get back on track, the Sox may have landed a big strikeout reliever at the cost of just a minor league deal.
- The Yankees‘ big three bullpen aces have drawn much of the attention this winter, though the rest of New York’s relief corps will also play an important role in the team’s success. To this end, Chasen Shreve will be a big figure for the Yankees, though his late-season fade is a concern, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Fatigue or over-thinking may have played a role in Shreve’s late-season struggles, though Brian McCann feels that Shreve was tipping his pitches.
AL East Notes: Hunter, Chapman, Rays, Ramirez
The Yankees have, rather notably, failed to sign a single free agent to a major league contract this winter. But that doesn’t mean the team hasn’t tried. In fact, the team had a two-year deal for between $11.5MM and $12MM in place with righty Tommy Hunter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. But an unidentified issue cropped up in his physical, leading the club to blow up the deal (the timing of which is unclear). Hunter ultimately received just $2MM in guaranteed money from the Indians, of course, though that perhaps also reflected the fact that he needed core muscle surgery in early January and will miss the start of the season.
Here’s more from New York and the rest of the AL East:
- The Yankees‘ opportunistic acquisition of Aroldis Chapman, in the midst of a still-ongoing investigation into domestic violence allegations, raises some hard and uncomfortable questions for the organization, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes. Meanwhile, New York is still waiting to learn what kind of punishment may be doled out, Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News reports. Indeed, the club is not even sure when it will be informed of a decision. Chapman himself says that he has been interviewed by the league and would appeal any suspension, Passan tweets.
- Rays president of baseball operations Mathew Silverman indicated that he’s not ruling out trade activity this spring, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. Silverman explains that the “transaction window is open longer” now than in the past, with other organizations seeming to show an increased willingness to strike deals during camp.
- While the Red Sox are optimistic that Hanley Ramirez can be a productive contributor at first base, writes ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the club has ways to fill in if the experiment fails. Of course, as Olney notes, there’s plenty of time for assessment before any tough choices are made.
Red Sox Sign Carlos Marmol To Minor League Deal
The Red Sox announced today that they’ve signed right-hander Carlos Marmol to a minor league deal with an invite to Major League Spring Training. He’ll compete for a spot alongside Koji Uehara and Carson Smith as a right-handed setup option for Craig Kimbrel.
Marmol, 33, made a name for himself as the Cubs’ closer from 2009-12, posting gaudy strikeout numbers that helped to cover up highly suspect control. In that stretch, Marmol saved 107 games and recorded a 3.33 ERA with 12.9 K/9 but a woeful 6.7 BB/9 rate. As Marmol’s strikeout rate dipped, so too did his effectiveness. Marmol averaged a sky-high 7.3 walks per nine innings in 2012 and repeated that number in a 2013 season that was split between the Cubs and Dodgers. His last Major League action came in 2014, when he tossed 13 1/3 innings with the Marlins. That season, Marmol yielded an 8.10 ERA and posted a 14-to-10 K/BB ratio before the club cut ties with him.
Marmol spent the 2015 season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate, where he posted a brilliant 2.03 ERA in 31 innings but showed the same control issues that have plagued him throughout his career, walking 27 batters in those 31 frames (albeit, against an impressive 48 strikeouts). The problem continued in the Dominican Winter League, where he walked a dozen hitters in seven innings. It’s unlikely that he’ll ever take a meaningful step forward in terms of control, but Marmol’s penchant for missing bats means he’ll likely continue to get opportunities, at least as a depth option.
Koji Uehara: No Current Plans To Retire
Red Sox reliever Koji Uehara said today that he has no current plans for retirement, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports (links to Twitter). He added that his surgically-repaired wrist is doing well and hasn’t prevented him from beginning a throwing program.
Though he’s coming off of injury, entering the final year of his contract, and set to turn 41 the day before Opening Day, Uehara indicated that he still has an open-ended timeline ahead of him. “I will keep pitching unless I am terrible and no team wants me,” Uehara said with a laugh.
Ultimately, Uehara has every confidence in his ability to perform into his fifth decade. “Age is a number,” he said. “Bring me a present that day.” On the whole, the statistics certainly support that (brilliantly-stated) attitude from the Japanese star.
Outside a bit of a rough stretch last June, Uehara put up a strong overall campaign after signing a two-year, $18MM deal just before the start of 2014-15 free agency. He ended the year with a 2.23 ERA over 40 1/3 innings, with 10.5 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9. That K:BB ratio fell well below his typical rate — which has paced the rest of the league by a comical margin. But he still fell within the top twenty pen men in the game by that measure as well as by K%-BB%.
Boston won’t be asking quite as much from the standout veteran this year as it has in the past, as Craig Kimbrel is set to move into the closer’s role. But he’s still a key piece of the pen, and continued dominance from both of those pitchers could give the club one of the game’s best late-inning combos. Of course, this season will also set Uehara’s trajectory as he nears open-market eligibility for the offseason to come.
Extension Notes: Strasburg, Harvey, Encarnacion, Buchholz
Spring training is also extension season, and Steve Adams and I previewed things on a recent edition of the MLBTR Podcast. Several players have inked arb-only deals, and there have been a pair of interesting contracts for injury-risk relievers, but thus far only Dee Gordon (Marlins) and Brandon Crawford (Giants) have landed truly significant contracts this winter. There are already rumblings about some big names who could dabble with long-term negotiations, many of whom pose significant questions to their organizations.
Here are a few links to the latest extension chatter:
- It does not appear that the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg have any intentions of making a real effort at a new contract, as Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports. Agent Scott Boras had high praise for the Washington organization and its handling of the prized righty, but his comments suggest that a pre-season deal would come as a major surprise. “We amicably agreed to a one-year deal (for 2016),” Boras said. “He’s going to pitch, and we’ll see where it goes from there. It’s something we’ll be discussing at the end of the year.” None of that comes as much of a surprise, of course, as Strasburg has a chance at a huge contract if he can put up a healthy and productive campaign.
- There may be slightly more daylight for an extension in the case of another NL East, Boras-repped ace — Matt Harvey of the Mets — according to a report from ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin. Unlike Strasburg, Harvey can be controlled for two more seasons after 2016, so there’s quite a bit more ground to cover before he hits the open market. Harvey said he hasn’t heard any talk of negotiations, but indicated he would be willing at least to consider a long-term arrangement. Boras, meanwhile, provided a trademark analogy to explain his stance: “Expectations of an extension are like dinner invitations. They are always politely considered until you know the restaurant.”
- The Blue Jays have yet to open talks with slugger Edwin Encarnacion, his agent Paul Kinzler tells Morosi. That’s not surprising with camp still on the horizon, but the new Toronto front office has made clear it intends to make an effort to reach agreement with Encarnacion (and fellow star Jose Bautista). Kinzer indicated that he believes there’s plenty of time to work something out, with Encarnacion very open to the idea of foregoing free agency for the chance to cement his legacy with the balllub.
- Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz says that he doesn’t think the time is right to discuss a new deal, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports. “I still think I have some stuff to prove before we even get into [extension discussions],” Buchholz told Mastrodonato. Boston probably feels similarly, particularly given that the roller-coaster righty is already controllable for 2017 (his age-32 season) by way of a $13.5MM club option.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Castillo, Trumbo, Cash
Despite the team’s poor finish in 2014, there are few spots on the Red Sox roster that are up for grabs this spring, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. The starting lineup is set, and the bench will consist of backup catcher Ryan Hanigan, offseason signee Chris Young, Brock Holt and Travis Shaw. Craig Kimbrel, Koji Uehara, Carson Smith, Junichi Tazawa and Robbie Ross ar locks for the ‘pen, and the final two spots could be somewhat influenced by the fact that lefty Tommy Layne and right-hander Steven Wright are out of minor league options. Lauber lists four players that could make strong impressions on decision-makers and end up factoring into the team later in the year — left-hander Brian Johnson, right-hander Pat Light, first baseman Sam Travis and outfielder Brennan Boesch, the latter of whom had his best years on the Tigers, when Dave Dombrowski was general manager.
Here’s more from the AL East…
- The potential upgrade from deploying Rusney Castillo in left field over Hanley Ramirez is striking, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. Acknowledging the extreme sample-size caveat, MacPherson points out that Castillo rated at +9 runs in 200 innings, per Defensive Runs Saved, whereas Ramirez rated at -19 DRS. While the 90-run difference resulting from extrapolating those numbers isn’t a realistic expectation, it does highlight the potentially dramatic improvement that could result from improved outfield athleticism.
- The potential addition of Pedro Alvarez to the Orioles’ lineup would push Mark Trumbo into right field, though Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com spoke to a scout who has a more optimistic take of Trumbo in the outfield than most reports. The scout to whom Kubatko spoke graded Trumbo as a 50 on the 20-80 scale in the outfield (average). “He’s not going to hurt you out there,” the scout said. “He’s athletic in the outfield. He’ll be fine. He’s got a good arm, he’s a good athlete, he’s a good fielder.” Trumbo, though, has long drawn poor reviews from scouts in the outfield and rates considerably below average in the outfield corners per DRS and Ultimate Zone Rating.
- Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune spoke to Rays manager Kevin Cash about the difference heading into his second season as a manager. Cash said that he learned a seemingly incalculable number of lessons from his first year on the job and stressed the importance of communicating to some of his pitchers that weren’t particularly pleased with the short leashes they were afforded last year. “That’s my job,” Cash explained. “You’ve got to be able to communicate that. I’m learning this on the fly. I never had to be that guy. Now it was, ‘OK, go tell someone why he’s getting taken out of the ballgame and explain that.’ I don’t know if you ever have a perfect message. But you get more comfortable with experience.” Cash drew rave reviews from his predecessor, Joe Maddon, especially considering that last season was Cash’s first managing at any level. “I couldn’t have done the job he did last year,” said Maddon. “I had all those years in the minors, all those experiences at all those outposts, nobody watching.” Cash also drew quite a bit of praise from Evan Longoria, who spoke very positively
Red Sox Notes: Vazquez, Swihart, Bullpen
Here’s the latest out of Boston as the club prepares for what should be a mostly predictable Spring Training:
- Christian Vazquez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. He went under the knife last April and will have to prove he can regularly catch to make the roster. Pitchers generally take 14 to 15 months to recover from the surgery while position players can pursue an accelerated timeline. Not many catchers are available for comparison. Matt Wieters is a recent example. He went under the knife in mid-June 2014 and returned to regular action in early-June 2015. If Vazquez follows the same timeline, he could be ready just in time for the regular season.
- If Vazquez is healthy, the Red Sox have a roster crunch behind the dish, per Speier. Veteran Ryan Hanigan and touted youngster Blake Swihart are also set to compete for playing time. Both Vazquez and Swihart have club options, but they’re also viewed as the future of the franchise. If they look sharp during the spring, Hanigan could be shopped on the trade market. More likely, Vazquez will be given extra time to recover from injury or develop his bat. The club could also opt to have Swihart work on his defense.
- Speier also looks at how the team’s pitchers performed with each catcher. In small samples, Eduardo Rodriguez was best with Swihart. Rick Porcello had similar numbers with Swihart and Hanigan. Clay Buchholz was much better with Vazquez as was Joe Kelly. All in all, the analysis is interesting but thoroughly inconclusive.
- The Red Sox know the plan for the late innings, write Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Junichi Tazawa, Carson Smith, and Koji Uehara will form the bridge to Craig Kimbrel. The other three bullpen jobs are open to competition. The favorite for the long relief role is Roenis Elias. He’s had modest success as a major league starter in Seattle. Knuckleballer Steven Wright is also in the picture, and he’s out of club options. The club reportedly liked Robbie Ross‘ performance late last season, but he does have options. Bradford thinks Tommy Layne (out of options), is the favorite for a LOOGY role. The club is reportedly on the lookout for other lefty specialists too. Bradford also highlights a few dark horse candidates to track.