Prospect Notes: Montas, Rankings, Moncada, Angels
Dodgers pitcher Frankie Montas is out for two to four months after having rib surgery, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Montas was a key to the Dodgers’ end of the seven-player swap that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox and prospects to the Dodgers and Reds. Now, it appears Montas will miss a portion of the season. Last year, Montas posted a 2.97 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 112 innings with Double-A Birmingham, also pitching 15 innings in his first exposure to the Majors. Here are more notes on prospects.
- It’s prospect list season, and this week Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (1-50, 51-100; subscription required and recommended) published lists of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Both lists feature the Dodgers’ Corey Seager and the Twins’ Byron Buxton at the top, and there’s plenty more agreement in the top ten, with Lucas Giolito (Nationals), Julio Urias (Dodgers), J.P. Crawford (Phillies), Alex Reyes (Cardinals) and Orlando Arcia (Brewers) all figuring in both top tens. From there, though, there’s plenty of divergence — for example, BA rates Yoan Moncada of the Red Sox the third-best prospect in baseball, whereas Law ranks him at No. 17, noting that Moncada might not have the power that was expected of him when the Red Sox signed him last year. Law still projects Moncada will be an above-average everyday player, however. Law is more bullish on another top Red Sox prospect, Rafael Devers, who he says could produce 30 to 35 home runs per season while playing solid defense at third base.
- Both BA and Law (again, Insider only) also recently published rankings of the best farm systems by organization. The Braves, Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, Rangers, Rockies, Twins, Red Sox and Pirates all fare well on both lists, and the Braves, Dodgers and Twins have seven players apiece in Law’s top 100. Both BA’s and Law’s rankings feature the same bottom five — the Tigers, Orioles, Mariners, Marlins and Angels. Law says the Angels have “by far the worst system I’ve ever seen,” noting that the Angels have no one who even came close to placing in his top 100.
Marlins To Sign Craig Breslow To Minors Deal
The Marlins have agreed to a minor league pact with veteran southpaw Craig Breslow, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. He would earn $1.5MM if he can crack the MLB roster.
Though he had kicked around the idea of seeking a starting opportunity, Breslow will reportedly chase a pen slot in Miami. He also considered offers from the Cubs, Blue Jays, and Red Sox.
Working for Boston last year, the 35-year-old carried a 4.15 ERA over 65 frames with 6.4 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. While the results were improved after a tough 2014, Breslow wasn’t able to show quite the same form that led to a 2.82 earned run mark over his first 402 MLB frames over the span of 2005 to 2013.
The veteran’s groundball rate is down and his home run susceptibility is up, and it’s reflected in advanced metrics, which do not put a positive spin on his past two seasons. While he has long outpaced ERA estimators, and did so again in 2015, they are increasingly sour on his work (5.27 FIP, 5.07 xFIP, and 4.51 SIERA last year).
On the other hand, Breslow still pitches with about the same fastball velocity (he averaged 90.0 mph with his four-seamer last year) as he always has. And he boosted his swinging strike rate into double digits for the first time since 2012. He ought to have every opportunity to earn a job this spring in a Miami pen that was in need of options behind top southpaw Mike Dunn.
Red Sox Considering Free Agent Lefty Relievers
The Red Sox have been largely dormant since acquiring Carson Smith and Roenis Elias from the Mariners during the Winter Meetings, but Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that the team is considering some of the remaining left-handed relief options on the open market, naming Neal Cotts and former Red Sox hurler Franklin Morales as a pair of the options currently being discussed.
Boston currently has Robbie Ross, Tommy Layne and Elias as left-handed relief options on the 40-man roster. Layne, though, struggled with his control in 2015, and Elias has hasn’t done much in the way of relief work in the Majors or minors (five relief appearances dating back to 2011), so the team may prefer to keep him as a starting pitcher and stash him at Triple-A for depth purposes.
Morales, who turned 30 last month, spent parts of three seasons with the Red Sox from 2011-13, working to a 3.90 ERA in 134 total innings as a member of the Red Sox organization. However, he struggled quite a bit upon being traded back to the Rockies and had to settle for a minor league deal with the Royals last offseason. That proved to be a shrewd pickup by GM Dayton Moore, who was rewarded when Morales turned in 62 1/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball, averaging 5.9 strikeouts and 2.0 walks per nine innings. Most of Morales’ work did come in low-leverage situations, but he nonetheless held left-handed opponents to a paltry .192/.245/.313 batting line with the Royals en route to his second World Series ring in three years.
Cotts, 36 in March, was absent from baseball for three full seasons before a resurgent campaign with the Rangers in 2013. Since his return to the bigs, he has a 3.03 ERA and a 186-to-63 K/BB ratio in 187 innings split between Texas, Milwaukee and Minnesota. He was abnormally homer-prone in 2015, allowing 12 homers in 63 1/3 innings, but still managed a 3.41 ERA with solid strikeout and walk rates while holding opposing lefties to a .178/.243/.330 batting line. Right-handed batters crushed Cotts, though, and his velocity dropped notably from its 2013-14 levels, as he averaged 89.9 mph on his heater after sitting at 91.6 over the previous two-year span.
It’s not clear from Abraham’s report whether the team is consider Major League or minor league contracts in free agency, but we’re at the point of the offseason where some players coming off solid overall seasons will likely need to settle for minor league pacts (in some cases with notable big league base salaries in the event that they land on the 25-man roster at the end of camp). Other names on the free-agent market Craig Breslow (a familiar face in Boston), Manny Parra, Brian Duensing, Matt Thornton and Eric O’Flaherty, who is said to be nearing a decision on where to sign for the 2016 season.
AL East Notes: Gallardo, Buchholz, Ortiz, Kendrick
Russell Wilson’s history with baseball is well-documented, though the Orioles were the first team to make a play for the future Seahawks quarterback out of high school when they made him a 41st-round pick in the 2007 amateur draft. As O’s scout Dean Albany tells MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski, Baltimore had Wilson graded as good enough to be picked within the top 10 rounds, and he only fell due to his commitment to play football at NC State. The Orioles were impressed enough with Wilson that they offered him $350K to sign, a higher bonus than the O’s offered any draft pick that year except for Matt Wieters and Jake Arrieta. Here’s more from around the AL East…
- The Orioles are still weighing whether or not to sign Yovani Gallardo and surrender their first-round draft pick, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes. Another “shift in thinking” has taken place within Baltimore’s front office, and now the club may no longer be as hesitant to give up its pick, though “plenty of folks in the industry say Gallardo isn’t worth the 14th selection” in June’s draft. If Gallardo’s price tag has indeed fallen to a large extent, however, there could be enough value added to make the signing. “It could be argued that [Gallardo] carries more value with them than other teams who still may be in the running,” Kubatko writes, due to Baltimore’s need for reliable starting pitching. Kubatko also opines that he would be willing to give up the 14th overall pick, since the O’s have five other picks within the first 100 selections of the coming draft.
- The Red Sox made a bet on Clay Buchholz‘s high ceiling rather than Wade Miley‘s durability, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. Buchholz has battled injuries and several ups-and-downs in performance over his career, though he’s looked like an elite starter when at his best. Miley, by contrast, has been more consistent than brilliant over his four full seasons as a big league starter. Speier points out that Miley’s reliability might’ve given him more trade value than Buchholz, which could’ve been the reason Miley was the one dealt, though choosing Buchholz over the lefty could prove to be a key choice of the Red Sox season.
- It couldn’t hurt the Red Sox or David Ortiz if the two sides firmly outlined the star slugger’s role in his final season, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required). This would allow both parties to avoid a potentially awkward situation if Ortiz experienced a sudden decline and the Sox then had to consider benching the franchise legend in his farewell season in order to better help the team win games. Olney uses Derek Jeter‘s final season as a cautionary tale, as the Yankees still used Jeter as a starting shortstop and number-two hitter throughout the year despite his sub-replacement performance.
- Several Yankees topics are discussed in a mailbag piece by Mike Axisa of the River Ave Blues blog, including the team’s second base situation. Axisa would’ve preferred the Yankees had Howie Kendrick on a two-year, $20MM deal and Adam Warren still in the pitching mix rather than Starlin Castro and the first-rounder it would’ve cost New York to sign Kendrick. That said, Axisa doesn’t blame the Yankees for making the move to acquire Castro earlier in the offseason since two months ago, it would’ve seemed far-fetched that Kendrick could’ve been had at such a relatively low cost.
Sherman’s Latest: Cespedes, Ramirez, Castro, Sano
Several teams are gambling on successful position changes for core players, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. While it’s not uncommon for a team to sign a player like Jason Heyward and shift him to a new position for a couple seasons, these transitions don’t always go swimmingly. Sherman examines some of the biggest names to watch this season, and we’ll touch upon a few of them here.
- The Mets were wary about committing to Yoenis Cespedes in part because of his shaky history in center field. As Sherman writes, Cespedes’ top defensive attribute is his arm. However, in center, range tends to be more valuable than arm strength.
- Last season, the Padres attempted to shift Wil Myers from an outfield corner to center. His experience could serve as a chilling example for Mets fans. When he wasn’t battling injury, Myers graded out as an atrocious center fielder. This season, San Diego plans to shift Myers to first base. It’s yet another position at which he has limited experience. Interestingly, Myers has moved all over the field in his professional career – he started out as a catching prospect, and he also has experience at third base.
- Another failed outfielder moving to first base, Hanley Ramirez, will be critical to the Red Sox success this season. Ramirez was a disaster in left field, but there is hope he can be more focused and healthier in an infield role. David Ortiz occupies the designated hitter role. He’s expected to retire after the season, meaning Ramirez could be shifted to a bat-only role after 2016.
- The Yankees are taking a gamble of their own on Starlin Castro. The former Cubs shortstop hit much better after a shift to second base, but his defense still graded out as below average. Unlike Cespedes, Myers, or Ramirez, Castro looked merely below average rather than nightmarish. The Yankees hope that more experience at the position and smoother actions can lead to defensive improvement in 2016.
- In an attempt to manage their corner infield and designated hitter surplus, the Twins are going to try prospect slugger Miguel Sano in the outfield. Sano, a third baseman by trade, doesn’t have professional experience in the outfield. However, his shift will allow the club to start Sano, Joe Mauer, Byung-ho Park, and Trevor Plouffe. In my opinion, the Twins might have been smarter to move Plouffe into the outfield. He has experience as a utility man and an established bat. Sano will now need to learn a new position while adjusting to major league pitching.
East Notes: Elway, DeShields, Castillo, Wheeler
Legendary quarterback John Elway was nearly a Yankee, writes Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com. Ringolsby sat down with scout and former executive Gary Hughes to talk about some of the multi-sport athletes he’s recommended over his lengthy career. The Yankees selected Elway in the second round of the 1981 draft. Elway told Hughes he would play baseball professionally if the Baltimore Colts didn’t trade him. Ultimately, they did, and he chose football. Hughes insists that Elway had special talent and would have had a successful career in baseball.
- While working with the Expos, Hughes was instrumental in the signing of Delino DeShields. The second baseman was committed to attending Villanova on a basketball scholarship but changed his mind after playing in rookie ball. When asked why he decided to forego his basketball scholarship, DeShields said, “if I am going to be any good, I have to concentrate on baseball.” Not only did DeShields have a successful 13 season career, his son recently broke out for the Rangers as a Rule 5 pick.
- Rusney Castillo has been worth a decent 1.3 WAR in 329 career plate appearances, writes August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs.com. That’s roughly a league average outfield over a full season, although most of the production has come on defense. The Red Sox undoubtedly hope to get more offense out of their $72.5MM investment. Fagerstrom digs deeper to examine Castillo’s profile at the plate. His high ground ball rate generates a disheartening list of comparables – Christian Yelich, Joey Butler, and Jose Tabata are the only better than average hitters of the bunch. Supposed adjustments to his swing path will need to click for him to morph into a serious offensive threat.
- The Mets are targeting a July 1 return for rehabbing pitcher Zack Wheeler, writes Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Wheeler underwent Tommy John surgery last March. The procedure typically has a 15 month recovery period, and it’s no coincidence his 15-month anniversary is June 25. While some pitchers in the past have recovered from the surgery faster than the 15 month timeline, players and teams now believe the slower recovery period is best for long term outcomes.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Betts, Bogaerts, Porcello, Chavez
There are several big-picture reasons for the Yankees‘ lack of free agent spending this offseason, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan writes. With a new collective bargaining agreement looming, the Yankees may be hesitant to commit millions more in player salaries until they know what the new luxury tax and revenue-sharing formulas will entail. Sources tell Passan that the luxury tax limit is likely to be raised from $189MM and New York therefore has a better chance of getting under the new threshold to lower its yearly penalty rate. Between cutting down on luxury tax payments and losing several huge contracts (Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, etc.) over the next two seasons, it could position the Yankees to splurge in the incredibly star-studded 2018-19 free agent market. The crown jewel of this free agent class is Bryce Harper, who has long been considered a future Yankees target — “their future marriage is considered so inevitable by most in the sport,” Passan writes.
Here’s more from around the AL East…
- The Red Sox may not be in a rush to sign Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts to extensions, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes. Even if Betts and Bogaerts continue to blossom into superstars, waiting another year to explore extensions might cost Boston only a couple of million dollars, a negligible amount for a big-market team. The two players may themselves have reason to wait, as Speier cites the argument from Over the Monster’s Matt Collins that Betts and Bogaerts may want to see what the next CBA holds before committing to long-term deals. Given the huge recent free agent contracts signed by players in their 20’s, Betts and Bogaerts also might not want to sign away any of their free agent years in an extension when a much larger score could await them down the road.
- In a recent podcast interview with WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford, Rick Porcello discussed the decision process that went into signing his four-year, $82.5MM extension with the Red Sox last offseason. Without that contract, Porcello would’ve been a free agent this winter on the heels of a pretty shaky 2015 campaign. Despite the righty’s struggles, Bradford notes that Porcello still could’ve found himself a healthy contract on the open market — Jeff Samardzija and Ian Kennedy both landed large multi-year deals despite coming off of rough seasons themselves, and Porcello is four years younger than either of those pitchers.
- Jesse Chavez‘s arbitration hearing with the Blue Jays took place Friday and a decision is expected today, according to the Associated Press. Chavez is arguing for a $4MM salary in 2016 while the Jays countered with a $3.6MM offer.
- Mark Trumbo is excited to be an Oriole, he tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, though he was surprised when the O’s acquired him from the Mariners since he didn’t know the club had interest. Trumbo believes he’s a better first baseman than outfielder, though with Chris Davis now back at first for years to come in Baltimore, Trumbo says “it doesn’t matter to me one bit” where he slots into the lineup as long as it helps the team win.
AL East Notes: Bautista, Donaldson, Chavez, Gallardo, Betts
Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista indicated that he’s very open to holding contract talks before reaching free agency after the season, as Gregory Strong of the Canadian Press reports. Bautista said it would be an honor to end his career in Toronto, though obviously there’s a long way to go to make that happen. He noted that he had recently sat down with new club president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins, but also suggested that true negotiations haven’t occurred. “I have to have something to consider at some point if I’m going to make that decision, which hasn’t happened yet,” said Bautista. “So I’m going to continue to go about my business just like any other year and any other day because I don’t really have a decision to make right now.”
Here’s more out of the AL East, including a few other notable possible extension scenarios — a topic that Steve Adams and I tackled on today’s MLBTR Podcast.
- Shapiro and Atkins are addressing their fanbase as we speak, and quotes continue to be reported. Josh Donaldson‘s contract situation came up, as it appears he’s headed for a second arb hearing unless a multi-year agreement can be reached. (The club employs a file-and-trial approach.) Atkins indicated that there is real interest in a multi-year scenario, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports (Twitter links), though it could well be an arb-only agreement. Nevertheless, the newly-minted general manager suggested that something more could at least be contemplated. “We want him here as long as humanly possible,” he said.
- The team seemingly already went to an arb hearing with righty Jesse Chavez, Nicholson-Smith tweets. There’s only a $400K difference between the sides’ filings — $4MM vs. $3.6MM — so there isn’t a ton of money at stake. It’s certainly possible that both preferred to take their chances to bridging the gap. Either way, Chavez will fall shy of his $4.7MM projection.
- Meanwhile, Shapiro says that it’s unlikely the team will make another major move before hitting camp, as Nicholson-Smith tweets. But the team has had “substantive conversations as recently as just a few days ago,” per Shapiro.
- We’ve heard a lot of back-and-forth on the Orioles‘ interest in signing free agent righty Yovani Gallardo — and giving up the 14th overall pick — and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says that the O’s are still monitoring things. If Gallardo’s asking price falls far enough, the team could be willing to punt the pick.
- The Red Sox don’t have much reason to pursue an extension with blooming star Mookie Betts, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal argues. Boston already has five years of control over Betts, isn’t really in need of cost certainty, and may prefer to avoid shifting forward salary for purposes of luxury tax calculations.
AL East Notes: Rays, Orioles, Lincecum, Buchholz
Players aren’t the only ones hurt by the qualifying offer system, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, who uses the Rays as an example of a team that is in a position to add an impact free agent right now (Ian Desmond) but don’t feel comfortable doing so due to the importance of the No. 13 overall selection to the organization. Not only would the Rays be sacrificing that top pick, of course, they’d also be forfeiting the sizable portion of their draft bonus pool stems from owning that pick.
A few more notes pertaining to the AL East…
- While much has been made of the Orioles‘ questionable rotation (understandably so), Rosenthal tweets that the O’s are still also looking at right field upgrades. While the team’s preference is to sign an everyday right fielder, they may simply go with a left-handed bat that can serve as a platoon partner for Dariel Alvarez, he notes. (I’ll add that Nolan Reimold, also on the 40-man roster, strikes me as a perhaps better bet to be the other half of a platoon, but either player could capably fill that role.) Rosenthal lists Will Venable and David Murphy as options, both of whom make sense in the scenario he described.
- MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko also examines the Orioles‘ right field situation, noting that the team’s focus is indeed on finding a left-handed bat. Per Kubatko, there’s no reason to eliminate Murphy or Venable from the list of possibilities, as Murphy has been someone the O’s have liked for years. Meanwhile, the Orioles actually thought they had a trade for Venable completed before he went to the Rangers this past summer, according to Kubatko. He also lists David DeJesus and Matt Joyce, although those seem more speculative in nature.
- The Orioles have inquired with right-hander Tim Lincecum‘s camp about his health, reports Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. While their specific level of interest isn’t known, Encina notes, it stands to reason that the O’s would have some interest in watching Lincecum work out later this month as the team eyes rotation upgrades that could come at a reasonable cost. Encina points out, however, that the Orioles have been comfortable with incentive-laden minor league deals in recent years (e.g. Johan Santana), but Lincecum is seeking a Major League deal.
- Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz was a guest on Rob Bradford’s podcast at WEEI and told Bradford that there was a time this offseason when he thought the Sox were going to trade him. “[David Price is] the horse that every team wants to have on their staff,” said Buchholz. “But given you do have someone like that, there obviously has to be one person that’s out of the mix. I was actually on the phone with Wade Miley talking about the whole Seattle thing, because my name was involved in that, and obviously his name.” Buchholz said that there was a week to two-week period where he was “non-stop texting” his agent for updates on the situation. In the end, however, Miley was the one traded to the Mariners, whose new GM, Jerry Dipoto, was the D-backs’ scouting director back when Miley was drafted.
Quick Hits: Do-Over Deals, QO, Tanking, Platoons
In honor of Groundhog Day, MLB.com has compiled some interesting tales of woe from top MLB executives. There’s a nice mix of mistakenly parting with prospects (Doug Melvin laments parting with Nelson Cruz when he didn’t need to); failing to pull the trigger for a key veteran (John Hart says he should have been willing to give Brian Giles to land Randy Johnson); failing to pick a side (Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti took a failed middle course in trading away Roberto Alomar); giving up on the wrong guy (Terry Ryan owns up to the decision to release David Ortiz); and reaching on a free agent (the Jeff Keppinger signing is a regret for Rick Hahn). It’s well worth a perusal of the bullets available at the link above, which has individual links to those and many more stories.
Here are a few more notes from around the game:
- The qualifying offer seems increasingly likely to be a major point of discussion in the coming CBA talks, with Howie Kendrick‘s surprisingly light free agent contract providing the latest cause for concern. In his interview with MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM yesterday (the second half of the chat at this audio link), agent Scott Boras provided an interesting case against the system. As he poses it, teams shouldn’t be forced to decide between improving at the major league level and taking opportunities for future improvement off of the table. And Jon Morosi of FOX Sports ticks through a few possible tweaks that might help balance the system out.
- “Tanking” is another subject that’s been in the papers lately, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports that it was also a topic of discussion at the most recent owner’s meeting. There are tie-ins to the revenue sharing system, Olney suggests, with some contributing organizations feeling that recipient clubs should be required to utilize those funds in service of their major league roster.
- Of course, small market clubs will always need to be more creative than their larger-budget brethren, and August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs explores one key method that most employ: taking advantage of platoons. Fagerstrom looks at projected platoons around the league to identify the combinations with the most promise. Three teams have reasonable expectations of 3+ WAR platoons, should they decide to use them: the Mets (Neil Walker and Wilmer Flores), Red Sox (Jackie Bradley Jr. and Chris Young), and Cardinals (Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko). Of course, none of those teams are light spenders, but there are numerous other examples throughout the post, including the possible combination that the Rays just set up with Corey Dickerson and Steve Pearce.