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Latest On Red Sox, Jordan Montgomery

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The end of February is now less than a week away and Spring Training games have begun, yet plenty of significant free agents remain unsigned. As long as they linger on the open market, they will continue to be the subject of discussion. That’s particularly true of the “Boras Four,” which is formed by Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman, all of whom are represented by the Boras Corporation.

The Red Sox have been loosely tied to Montgomery throughout the offseason and that connection was addressed this morning by both Rod Bradford of WEEI and Sean McAdam of MassLive. Bradford reports that the club appears to prefer Montgomery to other available free agents but it is still waiting for the price to come down. McAdam frames it similarly, noting that the club has stayed in contact with Scott Boras “as a matter of course.” McAdam also suggests the Sox could fit Montgomery into their budget if his asking price drops, but he also points out that several other clubs would jump into the fray at that point. At any rate, it seems to be a moot point for now since McAdam relays that the asking price has not dropped.

The fit between the two sides is a sensible one in some ways. Montgomery’s wife is doing a residency at a Boston hospital and there would surely be some appeal to the convenience of working in the same city for much of the year. But beyond that, the club has been searching for starting pitching all winter and hasn’t really found it. They did sign Lucas Giolito but also traded away Chris Sale, leaving them roughly where they started. One might argue that Giolito is an upgrade on Sale but that substitution doesn’t address the overall depth.

The Red Sox have also been quieter than some other traditional big spenders. While clubs like the Yankees and Dodgers are well beyond the fourth and final luxury tax tier, the Sox aren’t even above the lowest threshold of $237MM. Boston’s competitive balance tax figure is at $202MM, per Roster Resource, which gives them plenty of room to theoretically make a big splash and still avoid the tax. Some other clubs like the Padres, Rangers, Mariners and Twins seem to be operating with diminished spending capacity this winter due to uncertainty in their TV revenue situations.

All that could perhaps put the Red Sox in a position to strike, but there are also reasons to suspect it won’t happen. The club’s president Sam Kennedy was recently present as Spring Training facilities and spoke to the media, with Christopher Smith of MassLive relaying some video. “We have set parameters for him,” Kennedy said in response to a question about whether chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has a hard budget. “He’s operating under those parameters.” He declined to elaborate with specifics.

All teams have budgets but there can sometimes be a point where opportunities push a club to alter their plans. Both the club and Boras appear to be holding their positions for now and time will tell whether one side blinks or if the staredown leads to Montgomery signing elsewhere.

It’s possible something will happen to get things moving, but the Sox might proceed into the season with their current rotation mix. Last month, Breslow said the rotation consists of Giolito, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta. That would leave Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski as options for the final spot.

Giolito has plenty of success in his career but his earned run average has finished just below 5.00 in each of the past two seasons. Bello and Crawford each have just over 200 major league innings under their belts. Pivetta’s 2023 finished strong but he was bumped to the bullpen for a time due to some shaky results. The latter three worked both as starters and relievers in their careers and are still trying to establish themselves as legitimate rotation options.

There’s plenty of uncertainty in that mix and an addition would make sense if the Sox are willing to add some money to the payroll. In addition to Snell and Montgomery, the free agent market still features Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, Rich Hill, Zack Greinke and others. In addition to the Sox, Montgomery has received reported interest from clubs like the Angels and Giants, with other clubs making logical sense. MLBTR predicted him for a six-year, $150MM deal coming into the winter but his continued stay in free agency suggests that he hasn’t had offers in that vicinity and the chances of him getting there will likely drop as time goes on.

Red Sox Re-Sign Joely Rodriguez To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox re-signed left-handed reliever Joely Rodriguez. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe tweeted this morning that Rodriguez was at the Red Sox’ spring facility in Fort Myers, Fla. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo added that he’s in camp on a minor league deal. Rodriguez is a client of L.A. Sports Management.

Rodriguez, 32, was with the Sox in 2023 but pitched just 11 innings due to oblique, shoulder and hip injuries that combined to result in three different stints on the injured list. He posted a 6.55 ERA in his short time on the mound, striking out 27.5% of his opponents against an 11.8% walk rate and 45.2% ground-ball rate.

It wasn’t a strong year overall for Rodriguez, but the lefty has posted far better numbers over the three preceding seasons in his return from an excellent two-year stint in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. From 2020-22, Rodriguez pitched 109 1/3 frames between the Rangers, Yankees and Mets, working to a 4.28 ERA with even more encouraging secondary marks. Rodriguez fanned 25.5% of his opponents in that time and induced grounders at a huge 55.7% clip. His 10.3% walk rate was still a couple ticks north of the league average, but the lefty offered an enticing blend of missed bats and grounders while excelling at keeping the ball in the park (0.58 HR/9). Metrics like FIP (3.14) and SIERA (3.51) were rather bullish on his work.

The Red Sox have little in the way of established left-handed bullpen options on the 40-man roster. Brennan Bernardino surprised with 50 1/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball as a 31-year-old rookie last season, but the only other southpaws on the roster are Joe Jacques and minor league starters Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy. Rodriguez joins Lucas Luetge as a veteran southpaw who’ll compete for a job in Alex Cora’s bullpen. With a healthy spring, he ought to have a decent chance at winning a spot in a bullpen that’s seen a fair bit of turnover this offseason in the wake of a front office shakeup.

Eric Hosmer Retires

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First baseman Eric Hosmer hasn’t been on a major league roster in almost a year and has now decided to hang up his spikes. He tells John Perrotto of Forbes that he has now officially retired and is pivoting into the media sphere.

Hosmer, now 34, was one of many high-profile prospects in the Royals’ system, going back almost a couple of decades. The club leaned into a lengthy period of tanking in the early parts of this century, losing at least 87 games in nine straight seasons from 2004 to 2012. Over that time, they were able to pile up young talent in their farm system thanks to some strong draft picks. The deepest part of the rebuild was 2004 to 2007, with the club losing at least 93 games in each of those campaigns, but also getting a top-three pick in the draft for four straight years.

Those four picks were used on Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar, Mike Moustakas and Hosmer. Those players combined with other youngsters like Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Pérez and Yordano Ventura to form a promising young core that the club was hoping to use to return to prominence.

Hosmer hit well on his way up the minor league ladder and was considered one of the top 10 prospects in the game going into 2011. He made a strong debut that year and showcased some tendencies that would go on to define his career, namely an ability to avoid strikeouts but also an inability to get under the ball. He didn’t walk much either, so the ball was often in play, with his numbers swaying from year to year depending on whether he was finding holes or not.

He only struck out in 14.6% of his plate appearances in his rookie season, well below that year’s league average of 18.6%. But 49.7% of his balls in play were pounded into the ground, noticeably above the 44.4% league average. Regardless, he still hit 19 home runs and slashed .293/.334/.465 for a wRC+ of 113.

In 2012, he suffered through a sophomore slump, hitting just .232/.304/.359 for a wRC+ of 80. Part of that was batted ball luck, as his BABIP dropped to .255 from .314 the year prior. But his grounder rate also ticked up to 53.6% and he only hit 14 homers. These sorts of oscillations continued into the next few years. In 2013, his batting average was up at .302 and he hit 17 homers, but then those numbers dipped to .270 and just nine long balls in 2014.

Despite the challenges for Hosmer in the latter year, the club’s planned return to contention finally clicked in a big way. The Royals went all the way to the World Series that year, though they ultimate were felled by the Giants in seven games. Hosmer was a big part of that run, as he hit .351/.439/.544 that postseason.

Just about everything went right the next year, despite Hosmer still putting 52% of batted balls into the dirt. He also hit 18 homers and slashed .297/.363/.459 for a wRC+ of 124. The Royals went back to the World Series and finished the job this time, taking down the Mets in five games to hoist their first trophy since 1985.

The club slipped near .500 in the next two seasons as the up-and-down performance continued for Hosmer. His bat dipped closer to league average in 2016, though he rebounded with arguably the best season of his career in 2017. His grounder rate was still very high at 55.6%, but he managed to park the ball over the fence 25 times and slashed .318/.385/.498 for a wRC+ of 135.

That was excellent timing for a career year, as that was his platform season for his first trip into free agency. Despite the inconsistent performance, the Padres took a chance on him, agreeing to an eight-year, $144MM deal. In addition to the offensive questions, his defensive metrics were never strong, in spite of his four Gold Glove awards while with the Royals. But the Padres had been undergoing their own period of insignificance, having just finished the seventh of what would eventually be nine straight losing seasons. The signing of Hosmer, the largest deal in franchise history at the time, was meant to signal an end of the rebuild and a return to relevance.

Unfortunately, the deal quickly went south, as Hosmer’s bat was around league average for most of his time in San Diego. From 2018 through 2021, he hit .264/.323/.415, translating to a wRC+ of 99. He was often the subject of trade rumors in that time, as the Friars looked to get out from under the deal. He was going to be sent to the Nationals as part of the deal that sent Juan Soto to San Diego, but Hosmer had a limited no-trade clause that allowed him to block the deal. That deal went through with Luke Voit taking Hosmer’s place, though Hoz was  flipped to the Red Sox instead, with that club not covered by his clause. The Padres ate the remainder of Hosmer’s contract, apart from the league minimum, and included a couple of prospects in order to get Jay Groome from Boston.

A stint on the injured list due to some back inflammation limited him to just 14 games with the Sox after the deal and they released him in the offseason to clear a path for prospect Triston Casas. The Cubs took a flier on Hosmer, which was essentially a free look since the Padres were still on the hook for his salary. But he hit poorly in 31 games as a Cub last year, producing a batting line of .234/.280/.330, and was released in May. He didn’t latch on elsewhere and has now decided to officially call it a career.

Though there were some ups and downs, Hosmer still has plenty of accolades on his ledger, including four Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger Award, an All-Star appearance and a World Series ring. He also won the World Baseball Classic with Team USA in 2017. He racked up 1,753 hits in his MLB career, including 322 doubles, 20 triples and 198 home runs. He scored 812 runs and drove in 893. Baseball Reference lists his career earnings just under $175MM. We at MLBTR salute Hosmer on a fine career and wish him the best in his next steps.

Red Sox Have Shown Interest In Gio Urshela

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The Red Sox have shown interest in free agent infielder Gio Urshela, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. Cotillo tipped his hat on X to other uses on that site, @iTalkStudiosYT and @GlenielGarcia2, but he downplayed the situation more than those outlets. Cotillo noted that no deal was close and that the Sox haven’t done anything to separate themselves from other interested clubs like the Yankees, Mets, Angels and Marlins.

Urshela, now 32, is coming off a frustrating season with the Angels. He hit just two home runs in 62 games before suffering a pelvic fracture that ended his season prematurely. Nonetheless, plenty of clubs have been interested in him based on his previous work, where he combined a bit of pop, low strikeout rates and defensive versatility.

From 2019 to 2022, he hit 54 home runs in 435 games while getting punched out in just 19.3% of his plate appearances. His 6.3% walk rate was subpar but he nonetheless managed to hit .290/.336/.463 over those years for a wRC+ of 119, indicating he was 19% better than league average. He has spent most of his career at third base but has also lined up at the other three infield spots and has one inning in left field.

The Sox have a set infield right now with Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Vaughn Grissom and Triston Casas lined up left to right, but there would be some sense in adding a quality multi-positional infielder like Urshela. Neither Devers nor Cases are considered especially strong defensively. Story has missed significant time in the past two seasons due to elbow surgery. Grissom has just 64 games of major league experience.

If Urshela were added, he could occasionally spell someone in that group or push them to the designated hitter slot. The club plans to use Masataka Yoshida as the DH fairly regularly but he can play the outfield on occasion as others get a rest.

Despite the logical fit, Cotillo downplays the urgency of a deal getting to completion, which suggests the Sox aren’t desperate to add him. If they don’t get something done with Urshela, their in-house options for a depth infielder are Enmanuel Valdéz, Bobby Dalbec, Pablo Reyes, David Hamilton and Romy González.

Red Sox, Brayan Bello Discussing Extension

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The Red Sox and right-hander Brayan Bello are actively engaged in contract discussions, Bello himself tells Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. While the 24-year-old righty didn’t put a specific timetable on when an agreement might come together, he suggested it’s possible that a deal could come together this spring.

Bello has long been viewed as a potential core piece for the Sox. Prior to making his big league debut in 2022, he was widely regarded as one of the Sox’ five to ten best prospects. He’d posted strong numbers in the upper minors and drawn praise from scouts for both a plus changeup and potentially plus heater, leading to projections as a future mid-rotation arm if all went according to plan.

Through the first season-plus of his career, Bello has pitched 214 1/3 innings of 4.37 ERA ball. His 20% strikeout rate is below the league average, but his 7.7% walk rate is better than average and his 56.1% ground-ball rate is among the best in the game for starting pitchers. That grounder rate and his command have led fielding-independent metrics to be a bit more bullish on the righty than his earned run average (4.11 FIP, 4.14 SIERA).

Bello’s four-seamer and more heavily used sinker have both been hit hard by MLB opponents, but that highly touted changeup has indeed stood out as a clear plus pitch for him; opponents have batted just .186 and slugged only .256 off the pitch in his career thus far. That’s been his only pitch with consistently strong results to date, but Bello sits 95.2 mph on his sinker and 95.7 mph on his four-seamer, so the velocity is certainly there for him to find success with his primary offerings. His 11% swinging-strike rate and 32.1% opponents’ chase rate are both right in line with the league-average marks, so there’s room for his strikeout rate to creep up a bit even in the absence of significant gains with his fastballs.

To this point in his career, Bello has amassed 1.082 years of major league service time. That puts him on track to be eligible for arbitration in the 2025-26 offseason and keeps him under Red Sox control through at least the 2028 season. Contract extensions for starting pitchers in this service bracket have been surprisingly rare in recent years, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. For a whole decade, Madison Bumgarner’s five-year, $35MM extension with the Giants back in April of 2012 stood as the record for this service class.

Braves righty Spencer Strider utterly shattered that precedent when he put pen to paper on a six-year, $75MM extension after just having surpassed one year of service (1.003). That extension came on the heels of an overpowering rookie season in which Strider finished second (to his own teammate, Michael Harris II) in National League Rookie of the Year voting. He’d logged 131 2/3 innings with a 2.67 ERA while fanning a borderline comical 38.3% of his opponents.

Bello’s performance to date doesn’t measure up to that dominance from Strider, and he’d likely fall well shy of that highwater mark on an extension of his own. Cincinnati right-hander Hunter Greene’s even more recent six-year, $53MM extension could be viewed as a more salient comp for Bello’s camp, though it’s not perfectly analogous in its own right. Greene’s rookie showing in 2022 featured 125 2/3 innings of 4.44 ERA ball, and when he signed his contract in April of 2023, he carried a career 4.42 ERA in 148 2/3 frames. His path to those results was quite different — overpowering triple-digit fastball, plus strikeout rate, average command and a pronounced fly-ball profile — but they roughly align with Bello’s run-prevention numbers. Greene, however, is generally regarded as having a higher ceiling.

Both Strider and Greene signed six-year deals with a club option for a seventh season. A six-year deal would carry Bello through the 2029 season, and a seventh-year club option would give the Sox control over Bello’s 2030 campaign. If the two sides were to deviate from that structure, age could be a factor; Greene’s deal began in his age-23 campaign and Strider’s in his age-24 season. The 2024 campaign will be Bello’s age-25 season. A six-year deal and club option would keep him under club control through his age-31 year and position him to become a free agent entering his age-32 season.

If Bello wants a faster path to free agency (e.g. five years and an option), that’d be understandable but would also surely mean taking a guarantee shy of Greene’s $53MM. Even on a six-year deal, he’d likely fall a bit shy of that mark. When comparing him to Greene, it also bears mentioning that Greene had a larger safety net as a former No. 2 overall pick who’d received a $7.25MM bonus in the draft. Bello signed as a teenager out of the Dominican Republic for a $28K bonus and doesn’t have that type of financial security already established.

Whatever shape talks take, the mere fact that Boston is actively engaged in contract talks with a core young player represents a change of pace. The team waited until Rafael Devers was a year from free agency before shelling out a massive 10-year, $313.5MM extension (on top of his existing $17.5MM salary for his final arb year). Extensions for Xander Bogaerts (six years, $120MM) and Chris Sale (five years, $145MM) both similarly came when they were established stars with more than five years of MLB service. Again looking to our Contract Tracker, the only other pre-arb extension the Sox have given out in the past decade was Garrett Whitlock’s four-year, $18.75MM deal. Prior to that, you’d have to go way back to Clay Buchholz in 2011 to find an extension for a player who’d yet to reach arbitration.

Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy spoke earlier in camp about a need to begin exploring this type of contract earlier in his players’ careers (link via MassLive’s Sean McAdam). “Starting earlier, is probably a lesson,” Kennedy said just a few days ago. “We’ve not had a ton of success in extending our own guys. We have in the past and it’s been a great recipe for success. But I think starting those conversations earlier is a great idea.”

Red Sox Sign Liam Hendriks

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Feb. 20, 10:37am: Hendriks will earn $2MM in 2024 and $6MM in 2025, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. There’s also a $2MM buyout on the 2026 option, which is valued at $12MM. The $10MM worth of incentives in the deal are all tied to Hendriks’ 2025 performance, Cotillo adds. Half of that incentives package is tied to games finished, and the other half is tied to Hendriks’ total innings pitched. There are no incentives tied to the 2024 season.

10:25am:: The Red Sox have formally announced the signing of Hendriks to a two-year contract with a mutual option for a third season. This weekend’s trade of righty John Schreiber to the Royals opened a 40-man spot in Boston, so a corresponding move for Hendriks isn’t necessary.

Feb. 19: The Red Sox are reportedly in agreement with right-hander Liam Hendriks on a two-year deal that will guarantee him $10MM, though he can earn as much as $20MM via incentives. There’s also a 2026 mutual option for the ALIGND Sports Agency client. The deal is pending a physical.

Hendriks, 35, was the AL’s Comeback Player of the Year award winner in 2023 after he managed to return to the mound five months after he began undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in early January before announcing that he was cancer-free in April. Unfortunately, Hendriks’ amazing comeback was cut short after just five appearances due to a bout of elbow inflammation, which ended up leading to the veteran undergoing Tommy John surgery back in August. Hendriks’ lengthy impending rehab led the White Sox to decline their club option on his services for the 2024 season, allowing him to hit the open market back in November.

While 2023 was something of a lost season for Hendriks, he’s long been one of the most dominant relievers in the sport. The right-hander debuted as a starting pitcher with the Twins back in 2011, though he struggled in the role for Minnesota, Kansas City, and Toronto with a 5.92 ERA in 39 appearances across four seasons before the Blue Jays decided to move him to the bullpen full time in 2015. The role change did wonders for Hendriks’ performance, as he pitched to a strong 2.92 ERA with an even better 2.14 FIP across 64 2/3 innings of work for the club that year. That season, Hendriks struck out a solid 27.2% of batters faced while allowing free passes at a minimal 4.2% clip.

The Blue Jays didn’t retain Hendriks after his breakout campaign, instead dealing him to the Oakland A’s prior to the 2016 season. During his first few years in Oakland, Hendriks came back down to earth a bit, pitching to relatively middling results out of the club’s bullpen with a 4.01 ERA and a 3.24 FIP across 152 2/3 innings of work from 2016 to 2018. Hendriks returned to form in 2019, however. When then-A’s closer Blake Treinen struggled to a 4.91 ERA during the 2019 season, Hendriks took over the closer’s role and did not look back with an incredible 1.80 ERA with a 1.78 FIP in 85 innings of work.

The righty continued that strong performance in 2020, his final year of club control. He headed into the open market after racking up 14 more saves in the shortened season, posting a 1.78 ERA thanks to a huge 40.2% strikeout rate and tiny 3.3% walk rate. He landed a three-year, $54MM deal with the White Sox with a complicated club option for 2024. The salary and buyout on that option were both $15MM, though the buyout would spread the payouts over a 10-year period.

He continued to serve as a lockdown closer for the first two years of that deal before, as mentioned, going through various challenges in the third. With Hendriks looking at missing at least the first few months of 2024, the White Sox went for the $15MM opt-out instead of the $15MM salary. Despite those matching figures, they will save money in long run by holding that money, collecting interest on it and paying it out later when inflation has reduced its value.

Hendriks went into the open market unable to market himself for much of the 2024 season. He is targeting a trade deadline return from last year’s surgery, though that would be on the ambitious end of typical Tommy John recovery timelines since he just went under the knife a year ago.

It would obviously be great news if Hendriks is back on the mound in August or September but the signing for the Red Sox is more about 2025. The club has Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin as their top relievers this year but both are impending free agents and each have been in trade rumors this offseason. The club seems to have little hesitation about subtracting from this year’s relief corps, as they recently traded John Schreiber and flipped Nick Robertson earlier in the winter as part of the Tyler O’Neill deal.

Overall, the club’s offseason has been more focused on the future than the present. The move for O’Neill and the signing of Lucas Giolito were nice adds for this year, but they’ve also been seemingly trying to keep payroll fairly low and have sent out players with minimal club control like Chris Sale and Alex Verdugo. While they’re not exactly tearing things down to the studs as part of a deep rebuild, they do seem to be aware that they need to think about the long term after a couple of last place finishes in the A.L. East in past two seasons.

Signing Hendriks fits into that, as he will upgrade next year’s roster more than this one’s. There’s also some financial wiggle room due to their relatively modest winter. Roster Resource pegs their current payroll at $181MM, even after the Hendriks signing. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they were twice were over $230MM a few years back and at $207MM two years ago. RR also has their competitive balance tax now at $202MM, nowhere near the $237MM base threshold of the tax.

If the Sox find themselves in contention later this year, perhaps Hendriks can come back from his rehab and join their bullpen for the stretch run. But for next year, he potentially gives the club an elite closer at a relative modest salary, providing an early solution to the departures of Jansen and Martin.

Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive first reported the sides were nearing an agreement and that Hendriks was present at the club’s Spring Training facility in Florida. Buster Olney of ESPN first had the two years and $10MM guarantee. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relayed the 2026 mutual option. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the potential to get to $20MM via incentives.

Red Sox, Triston Casas Have Discussed Possible Extension

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2023 was a difficult season for the Red Sox as the club suffered a second consecutive fifth-place finish in the AL East with an identical 78-84 record to their disappointing 2022 campaign. With that being said, rookie first baseman Triston Casas served as a bright spot in the otherwise tough season as he rode a blistering second half to a third place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting. Prior to the 2023 season, Casas expressed interest in an extension that would keep him in Boston beyond his years of club control, which run through the 2028 season. At the time, he indicated that there had been no such discussions with Red Sox brass, though he struck a different tone in a scrum with reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) today.

“Of course we have,” Casas told reporters when asked if the sides have talked extension yet. Casas went on to add that while he hopes to stay a member of the Red Sox “forever,” “nothing enticing” had been offered offered to him at this point. Casas decline to get into specifics when asked what sort of contract he would consider, though he noted his goal is a deal that would leave himself and his family “set for the rest of [his] life.”

As a player with just over one year of service time, any extension for Casas would figure to cover his five remaining seasons of team control while also extending Boston’s window of control beyond that. One obvious comp for Casas would be first baseman and former Red Sox prospect Anthony Rizzo, who signed a six-year $40.5MM extension with the Cubs early in the 2013 season that covered the 2014-2019 campaigns. That deal included options and escalators that allowed it to max out at $73MM over eight years. With that being said, there’s several reason to expect Casas to earn significantly more on an extension than Rizzo did. That contract was signed over a decade ago, and while Rizzo was about a year younger at the time of the deal than Casas is now, he had done far less to establish himself as a big league caliber bat.

Entering the 2013 season, Rizzo had hit just .245/.324/.402 in 136 games for his career with an exactly league average wRC+ of 100. Meanwhile, Casas has slashed an impressive .263/.367/.490 (129 wRC+) in 132 games last year and sports a nearly identical 128 wRC+ for his career. While Rizzo’s pedigree as a former top-50 prospect in the sport lent credence to his ability to improve as he entered his mid-twenties, Casas having proved himself as an above-average offensive player in the majors should allow him to earn significantly more even before considering the nearly eleven years of inflation separating the two deals.

So, what sort of deal could make sense for Casas and the Red Sox? Looking at more recent comparisons, Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes was another former first-round pick entering his second full seasons in the majors when he signed an eight-year, $70MM extension with Pittsburgh two years ago. While Hayes’s ability to offer elite defense at the hot corner gives him a considerably higher floor than Casas (who is generally considered to be a fringy defender at first base), Casas offers significantly more offensive ability than Hayes, who owned a roughly league-average slash line of just .280/.340/.432 (106 wRC+) in the big leagues at the time of his extension. Casas is also a year younger than Hayes was at the time of his extension, meaning he’d hit free agency ahead of his age 29 season if not extended beyond his current club control.

Given Casas’s relative youth and significant offensive talent, an extension in a similar ballpark to Hayes’s extension with the Pirates could make sense in spite of his lack of defensive value. While the Red Sox have indicated that they expect payroll to be lower in 2024 than it was last year, an extension for Casas would figure to hardly put a dent in the club’s books for the 2024 season, as pre-arbitration extensions tend to escalate salaries over the course of the deal. A deal locking up Casas could also allow Boston to have a potential franchise cornerstone in place long-term as the club’s other young players and prospects, such as Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Roman Anthony, begin to reach and establish themselves at the big league level over the next few years.

Royals Acquire John Schreiber From Red Sox

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The Royals have acquired reliever John Schreiber from the Red Sox in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect David Sandlin, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). Kansas City placed Kyle Wright on the 60-day injured list to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Schreiber has a 27.4% strikeout rate over his 143 1/3 career innings in the majors, so missing bats has never been an issue for the 29-year-old.  Between some home run issues and a lot of bad BABIP luck, however, Schreiber had only a 6.28 ERA over 28 2/3 innings with the Tigers in 2019-20, and he pitched in only a single MLB game with the Red Sox in 2021.  The breakout came in 2022, as Schreiber had a 2.22 ERA over 65 relief innings for Boston while also delivering a 28.8% strikeout rate and an above-average 7.4% walk rate.

2023 was more of a challenge, in no small part because Schreiber spent time on the 60-day injured list due to a teres major strain in his right shoulder.  Schreiber still posted a respectable 3.86 ERA over 46 2/3 innings and had strong strikeout and barrel rates, though his walk rate spiked up to an ungainly 12.3%.  The sinker that was such a weapon for Schreiber the previous season was also less effective — batters had a .395 wOBA against his sinker in 2023, as opposed to a .245 wOBA in 2022.

An argument can certainly be made that the Red Sox might be selling high on Schreiber here, though it’s a risk Kansas City is willing to take for a reliever who is a few weeks shy of his 30th birthday and is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season.  Schreiber had a 2.12 ERA in 17 innings before his IL stint and a 4.85 ERA in 29 2/3 innings after returning, so the Royals might view the righty’s struggles as just a byproduct his injury layoff.  Should Schreiber get back to his 2022 form, K.C. suddenly has a big strikeout arm to deploy in high-leverage situations.

Today’s trade continues a very busy offseason for Royals GM J.J. Picollo, who has brought quite a bit of veteran talent to Kansas City in an effort to quickly turn around a team that lost 106 games last season.  Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo were the headline-grabbing rotation upgrades, but Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Nick Anderson, and now Schreiber have all joined a reworked bullpen.  Schreiber is a bit more of a longer-term add given his years of arbitration control, yet the Royals have put themselves in a position to either directly benefit on the field if these pitchers perform well, or to perhaps benefit in terms of having some trade chips at the deadline if K.C. again falls short of contention.

From Boston’s perspective, moving a solid reliever from Schreiber might not be well received at first by Red Sox Nation, given how the fans have been vocally unimpressed with the team’s moves (or lack thereof) this offseason.  Craig Breslow has made a lot of lateral moves in his first winter as the chief baseball officer, continuing the franchise’s recent bent towards adding younger talent rather than splurging on win-now stars.

Sandlin brings some intriguing potential to the table, as the righty (who turns 23 next week) has a 3.41 ERA and an outstanding 32.38% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 career minor league innings.  An 11th-round pick for the Royals in the 2022 draft, Sandlin had his 2023 season cut short by a lat injury, and he made only two appearances at the high-A level before being sidelined.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked Sandlin as the fifth-best prospect in the Royals’ farm system, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked the righty seventh.  Baseball America was slightly more pessimistic in ranking Sandlin only 20th, but still felt Sandlin might develop into at least a good reliever based on his two primary pitches —- a high 90s fastball and a plus slider.  If his changeup and curveball can also develop, Sandlin can perhaps stick in the rotation, though he’s still something of a wild card considering that he hasn’t yet pitched much in pro ball.

MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith reported earlier this week that the Sox were open to offers for not just Schreiber, but also Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin.  With Schreiber now out the door, it remains to be seen if Boston is still willing to move either of Jansen or Martin, or if the Sox will stop short of a full-on bullpen overhaul.  Jansen or Martin are both free agents after the season and will be prime trade candidates at the deadline if the Red Sox aren’t in contention, so there has been speculation that the Sox might look to increase their return (and cut some salary) by dealing at least one of the veteran relievers now.

Kenley Jansen Dealing With “General Lat Soreness”

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Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen will be delayed in camp by what chief baseball officer Craig Breslow described as “general lat soreness,” as relayed by Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (X link). The four-time All-Star isn’t yet throwing, although he has been cleared to take part in other drills.

There’s nothing to suggest the issue is particularly serious or even threatens Jansen’s availability for Opening Day. It could be a small complicating factor in trade discussions that Boston has regarding the veteran righty, however. The Sox are reportedly open to offers on each of Jansen, Chris Martin and John Schreiber. Jansen’s name has been floated most frequently among that group, largely a reflection of his $16MM salary for the upcoming season. Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic reports that, as of Wednesday evening, the Sox weren’t close to a Jansen deal.

Breslow acknowledged the team could field trade interest on the veteran reliever yesterday. “Where we stand is he’s on this team, he is an All-Star-caliber closer who’s had an incredible career, and we’re happy for that,” he told reporters on Tuesday (link via Speier). “We have talented players on our team that are potentially of interest to others. But as of right now we’re excited about what he brings, what the back end of our bullpen brings, and the depth that we have down there.”

Jansen has generally avoided arm injuries throughout his career. He has had a few injured list stints over the years related to an irregular heartbeat and had a minimal IL stay last September for virus reasons. He was otherwise healthy in 2023 and pitched 51 times. In 44 2/3 innings, he worked to a 3.63 ERA. Jansen struck out 27.7% of opposing hitters and averaged 94.3 MPH on his cutter — his highest average velocity in a decade.

The Opener: Spring Training, Arraez, Red Sox

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With baseball’s preseason kicking into gear, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Baseball is back!

Pitchers and catchers are reporting to camp ahead of Spring Training for 18 of the league’s 30 clubs today. When combined with the early reporting dates for the Dodgers and Padres, that means camp will be underway for two thirds of the league by the end of the day. Even as teams begin their preparations for the coming campaign, however, four of the offseason’s top 10 free agents remain on the market and the rumor mill continues to buzz with the possibility of more preseason deals both in free agency and on the trade market.

Among the teams reporting to camp today are the Rangers, who enter the 2024 campaign looking to defend the first World Series title in franchise history; the Diamondbacks, who hope to carry over the momentum that allowed that to make a surprise run to the Fall Classic last year into the new season; and the Twins, who will look to return to the postseason in 2024 after breaking their record 18-game postseason losing streak and won a playoff series for the first time since 2003.

2. Arraez, Marlins await hearing results:

Second baseman Luis Arraez is scheduled to go to a hearing against his club today after the sides failed to come to an agreement to avoid arbitration, as noted by the Associated Press. Arraez requested a $12MM salary for the 2024 campaign, while the Marlins offered $10.6MM. Arraez won his case against Miami last year, when a panel of arbiters awarded him $6.1MM rather than the Marlins’ submitted figure of $5MM. Arraez’s hearing comes on the heels of a loss by Rays right-hander Jason Adam, who also went to arbitration against his club for the second consecutive season after winning last year’s hearing. With five cases as of yet undecided, players have won in seven hearings while teams have won in four.

3. What’s the plan for the Red Sox?

It’s been a strange offseason in Boston. After a lengthy search for the club’s next chief baseball officer which ended the club hiring Craig Breslow, the club made clear that their primary focus this winter would be on bolstering the starting rotation. Since then, the club shipped out longtime ace Chris Sale in a trade that brought second baseman Vaughn Grissom back from Atlanta while landing right-hander Lucas Giolito via free agency. That series of moves that landed the club a potential regular at a position of need but arguably left the club with a similar lack of rotation depth and a volatile top veteran starter. Since then, club officials have backtracked on previous comments indicating a “full-throttle” approach to the winter while noting that payroll would likely go down in 2024.

That conflicting messaging leaves plenty of uncertainty surrounding the Red Sox as the club’s pitchers and catchers begin to report to camp today. While the club continues to pursue additions to its outfield mix via free agency, it’s simultaneously receiving trade interest in outfielder Jarren Duran while also shopping listening to offers on key bullpen pieces such as Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin. Will the arrival of Spring Training provide more clarity on the club’s direction headed into the 2024 campaign?

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